Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 13–14 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.0% 37.5–40.5% 37.1–41.0% 36.7–41.3% 36.0–42.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 34.0% 32.5–35.5% 32.1–35.9% 31.8–36.3% 31.1–37.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.2–13.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.6–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 313 299–326 290–330 285–339 271–346
Labour Party 262 234 221–245 216–254 208–258 204–271
Liberal Democrats 12 29 26–32 24–32 24–33 20–36
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 51 47–54 47–54 47–56 42–56
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 4 3–5 3–5 2–6 2–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0.2% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.4%  
275 0.4% 99.3%  
276 0% 98.9%  
277 0.2% 98.9%  
278 0.1% 98.7%  
279 0% 98.6%  
280 0% 98.6%  
281 0.2% 98.5%  
282 0.1% 98%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.2% 97%  
288 0.4% 97%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 2% 96%  
291 0.7% 94%  
292 0.2% 93%  
293 0.3% 93%  
294 0.3% 93%  
295 0.9% 93%  
296 0.1% 92%  
297 0.6% 91%  
298 0.4% 91%  
299 1.1% 90%  
300 0.2% 89%  
301 0.2% 89%  
302 0.8% 89%  
303 2% 88%  
304 0.6% 86%  
305 0.3% 86%  
306 2% 85%  
307 10% 83%  
308 2% 73%  
309 3% 71%  
310 9% 68%  
311 3% 59%  
312 5% 56%  
313 4% 51% Median
314 4% 47%  
315 5% 43%  
316 5% 39%  
317 0.5% 33% Last Result
318 0.8% 33%  
319 5% 32%  
320 1.0% 27%  
321 9% 26%  
322 2% 16%  
323 0.4% 15%  
324 2% 14%  
325 2% 12%  
326 1.1% 10% Majority
327 0.7% 9%  
328 2% 9%  
329 0.2% 6%  
330 1.4% 6%  
331 0.1% 5%  
332 0.4% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.1% 4%  
335 0.1% 3%  
336 0.1% 3%  
337 0.2% 3%  
338 0.3% 3%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.7% 2%  
343 0.5% 1.1%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.5%  
347 0% 0.5%  
348 0.2% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.2% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.6%  
201 0% 99.6%  
202 0% 99.6%  
203 0% 99.5%  
204 0.1% 99.5%  
205 0.4% 99.5%  
206 0.4% 99.1%  
207 1.0% 98.7%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 0% 97%  
210 0% 97%  
211 0.1% 97%  
212 0.1% 97%  
213 0.3% 97%  
214 0.2% 97%  
215 1.1% 97%  
216 2% 96%  
217 1.0% 94%  
218 0.9% 93%  
219 1.0% 92%  
220 0.3% 91%  
221 0.9% 91%  
222 4% 90%  
223 7% 86%  
224 2% 79%  
225 0.8% 78%  
226 0.9% 77%  
227 4% 76%  
228 6% 72%  
229 3% 66%  
230 5% 63%  
231 0.6% 58%  
232 1.1% 58%  
233 6% 57%  
234 5% 51% Median
235 10% 46%  
236 8% 36%  
237 10% 28%  
238 0.6% 18%  
239 1.4% 18%  
240 2% 16%  
241 0.2% 14%  
242 1.3% 14%  
243 0.4% 12%  
244 0.6% 12%  
245 1.5% 11%  
246 1.1% 10%  
247 0.1% 9%  
248 0.1% 9%  
249 0.1% 9%  
250 0% 9%  
251 0.1% 8%  
252 0.1% 8%  
253 0.9% 8%  
254 3% 7%  
255 0.6% 4%  
256 0.3% 4%  
257 0.4% 3%  
258 0.9% 3%  
259 0.1% 2%  
260 0.1% 2%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0.1% 2% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.3% 2%  
265 0.1% 1.3%  
266 0.1% 1.2%  
267 0.1% 1.2%  
268 0.2% 1.1%  
269 0.2% 0.9%  
270 0.1% 0.7%  
271 0% 0.5%  
272 0.1% 0.5%  
273 0% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4%  
275 0% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.1% 99.8%  
20 0.2% 99.7%  
21 0.5% 99.5%  
22 0.7% 99.0%  
23 0.7% 98%  
24 4% 98%  
25 3% 94%  
26 7% 91%  
27 9% 84%  
28 13% 76%  
29 17% 63% Median
30 19% 45%  
31 16% 27%  
32 7% 10%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.4% 2%  
35 0.5% 1.3%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.6%  
43 0.1% 98.8%  
44 0% 98.8%  
45 1.1% 98.7%  
46 0% 98%  
47 9% 98%  
48 5% 89%  
49 0.1% 84%  
50 18% 84%  
51 31% 66% Median
52 4% 35%  
53 6% 31%  
54 21% 25%  
55 1.0% 4%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 80% 100% Last Result, Median
2 20% 20%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.8%  
2 5% 99.7%  
3 34% 95%  
4 17% 61% Last Result, Median
5 40% 44%  
6 2% 4%  
7 0.2% 2%  
8 1.3% 1.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 368 99.7% 355–381 348–385 340–393 327–400
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 363 99.4% 350–376 344–381 336–389 323–395
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 342 91% 327–355 316–359 314–366 300–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 317 14% 304–330 299–339 291–345 284–359
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 317 20% 304–330 295–335 289–343 275–351
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 313 10% 300–325 295–334 287–341 279–355
Conservative Party 317 313 10% 299–326 290–330 285–339 271–346
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 288 0.9% 275–303 271–313 263–315 256–329
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 284 0.4% 270–298 267–308 260–311 252–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 267 0% 254–279 248–285 241–294 234–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 262 0% 249–274 244–282 237–290 230–303
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 238 0% 226–250 220–259 212–263 208–275
Labour Party 262 234 0% 221–245 216–254 208–258 204–271

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.7%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.7% Majority
327 0% 99.5%  
328 0% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.4%  
330 0.1% 99.3%  
331 0% 99.2%  
332 0.2% 99.2%  
333 0.1% 99.0%  
334 0% 98.9%  
335 0.2% 98.8%  
336 0.1% 98.6%  
337 0.3% 98.5%  
338 0.3% 98%  
339 0.1% 98%  
340 0.5% 98%  
341 0.1% 97%  
342 0.1% 97%  
343 0.6% 97%  
344 0.4% 97%  
345 0.2% 96%  
346 0.1% 96%  
347 0.5% 96%  
348 0.7% 95%  
349 2% 95%  
350 0.9% 92%  
351 0.1% 91%  
352 0.1% 91%  
353 0.3% 91%  
354 0.1% 91%  
355 1.2% 91%  
356 0.5% 90% Last Result
357 0.2% 89%  
358 1.2% 89%  
359 0.6% 88%  
360 0.4% 87%  
361 5% 87%  
362 2% 81%  
363 4% 79%  
364 1.5% 75%  
365 9% 74%  
366 11% 64%  
367 2% 53%  
368 5% 51% Median
369 2% 46%  
370 9% 44%  
371 0.1% 34%  
372 5% 34%  
373 4% 29%  
374 1.1% 25%  
375 0.5% 24%  
376 3% 23%  
377 1.1% 20%  
378 6% 19%  
379 2% 13%  
380 1.1% 11%  
381 0.5% 10%  
382 0.3% 9%  
383 3% 9%  
384 0.5% 6%  
385 0.6% 5%  
386 0.2% 5%  
387 0.3% 5%  
388 0.4% 4%  
389 0.5% 4%  
390 0.5% 3%  
391 0.1% 3%  
392 0.2% 3%  
393 0.3% 3%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0.1% 2%  
397 0.7% 2%  
398 0.1% 0.9%  
399 0.3% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.5%  
401 0% 0.5%  
402 0% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0% 99.7%  
321 0% 99.7%  
322 0% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0% 99.5%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.4% Majority
327 0% 99.2%  
328 0.2% 99.2%  
329 0.1% 99.0%  
330 0.2% 98.9%  
331 0% 98.7%  
332 0.1% 98.6%  
333 0.1% 98.5%  
334 0.3% 98%  
335 0.3% 98%  
336 0.5% 98%  
337 0% 97%  
338 0.4% 97%  
339 0.2% 97%  
340 0.2% 97%  
341 0.6% 97%  
342 0.4% 96%  
343 0.2% 96%  
344 2% 95%  
345 1.3% 93%  
346 0.1% 92%  
347 0.2% 92%  
348 0.2% 91%  
349 0.1% 91%  
350 1.2% 91%  
351 0.6% 90%  
352 0.2% 89% Last Result
353 1.3% 89%  
354 0.5% 88%  
355 0.5% 87%  
356 2% 87%  
357 0.1% 85%  
358 4% 85%  
359 4% 81%  
360 2% 77%  
361 14% 75%  
362 8% 61%  
363 7% 53%  
364 2% 46% Median
365 3% 44%  
366 0.4% 41%  
367 6% 41%  
368 6% 35%  
369 5% 29%  
370 0.2% 25%  
371 1.4% 24%  
372 4% 23%  
373 2% 19%  
374 2% 17%  
375 4% 15%  
376 1.3% 11%  
377 0.2% 10%  
378 0.7% 9%  
379 2% 9%  
380 2% 7%  
381 0.8% 5%  
382 0.1% 4%  
383 0.6% 4%  
384 0.2% 4%  
385 0.6% 4%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.1% 3%  
388 0.1% 3%  
389 0.5% 3%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.6% 2%  
393 0.1% 1.0%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.2% 0.7%  
396 0% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0.1% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.6%  
301 0% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.2% 99.2%  
305 0.2% 99.0%  
306 0.1% 98.9%  
307 0% 98.8%  
308 0% 98.7%  
309 0.1% 98.7%  
310 0.1% 98.7%  
311 0.1% 98.6%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.7% 98%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 2% 97%  
317 0.7% 95%  
318 0.1% 94%  
319 0.2% 94%  
320 0.3% 94%  
321 0.1% 93%  
322 1.5% 93%  
323 0.1% 92%  
324 0.4% 92%  
325 0.2% 91%  
326 0.5% 91% Majority
327 1.2% 91%  
328 1.3% 89%  
329 1.2% 88% Last Result
330 0.2% 87%  
331 0.4% 87%  
332 0.3% 86%  
333 0.2% 86%  
334 1.4% 86%  
335 2% 84%  
336 7% 83%  
337 5% 76%  
338 7% 70%  
339 2% 64%  
340 3% 62%  
341 5% 59%  
342 7% 54% Median
343 3% 46%  
344 5% 44%  
345 0.7% 38%  
346 6% 38%  
347 0.5% 32%  
348 1.0% 31%  
349 5% 30%  
350 4% 25%  
351 4% 21%  
352 4% 17%  
353 0.3% 13%  
354 1.2% 13%  
355 2% 12%  
356 2% 9%  
357 0.7% 8%  
358 1.3% 7%  
359 2% 6%  
360 0.1% 4%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 0.2% 4%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.1% 3%  
365 0% 3%  
366 0.7% 3%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.7% 2%  
369 0.4% 1.4%  
370 0% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.9%  
372 0% 0.8%  
373 0.2% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.2% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.2% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.5%  
284 0% 99.5%  
285 0% 99.5%  
286 0.3% 99.4%  
287 0.3% 99.2%  
288 0.8% 98.9%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.4% 97%  
293 0.1% 97%  
294 0.2% 97%  
295 0% 97%  
296 0.1% 97%  
297 0.9% 96%  
298 0.3% 96%  
299 0.3% 95%  
300 1.4% 95%  
301 0.5% 94%  
302 2% 93%  
303 0.2% 91%  
304 1.0% 91%  
305 2% 90%  
306 2% 87%  
307 0.6% 85%  
308 2% 85%  
309 9% 83%  
310 0.5% 74%  
311 5% 73%  
312 1.0% 68%  
313 0.3% 67% Last Result
314 5% 67%  
315 5% 61%  
316 3% 56%  
317 4% 53%  
318 5% 49% Median
319 4% 43%  
320 10% 40%  
321 1.0% 30%  
322 6% 29%  
323 7% 23%  
324 0.8% 15%  
325 0.4% 14%  
326 0.4% 14% Majority
327 2% 14%  
328 0.7% 12%  
329 0.2% 11%  
330 1.0% 11%  
331 0.5% 10%  
332 0.1% 9%  
333 0.6% 9%  
334 0.3% 8%  
335 0.8% 8%  
336 0.3% 7%  
337 0.3% 7%  
338 0.5% 7%  
339 2% 6%  
340 0.2% 4%  
341 0% 4%  
342 0.5% 4%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 0.8% 3%  
346 0% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0% 1.5%  
351 0.1% 1.4%  
352 0.1% 1.4%  
353 0.1% 1.2%  
354 0.2% 1.1%  
355 0.3% 0.9%  
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.5%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.3% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.1%  
280 0.2% 99.1%  
281 0.2% 98.9%  
282 0.1% 98.7%  
283 0% 98.6%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.2% 98.6%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.2% 97%  
293 0.4% 97%  
294 0.7% 96%  
295 2% 96%  
296 0.3% 93%  
297 0.3% 93%  
298 0.3% 93%  
299 0.1% 93%  
300 1.3% 92%  
301 0.4% 91%  
302 0.1% 91%  
303 0.4% 91%  
304 1.2% 90%  
305 0.3% 89%  
306 0.1% 89%  
307 0.8% 89%  
308 2% 88%  
309 0.5% 86%  
310 5% 85%  
311 3% 80%  
312 7% 77%  
313 4% 70%  
314 4% 66%  
315 5% 62%  
316 4% 57%  
317 6% 53% Median
318 6% 47%  
319 8% 41%  
320 0.3% 34%  
321 0.7% 33% Last Result
322 5% 33%  
323 1.4% 28%  
324 3% 27%  
325 4% 23%  
326 3% 20% Majority
327 2% 16%  
328 1.0% 14%  
329 1.1% 13%  
330 3% 12%  
331 0.8% 9%  
332 2% 9%  
333 1.4% 7%  
334 0.2% 6%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.3% 5%  
337 0.2% 4%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.1% 4%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 0.3% 3%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.9% 2%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0.2% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.2% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.5%  
279 0% 99.5%  
280 0% 99.5%  
281 0% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 1.2% 99.3%  
284 0.1% 98%  
285 0% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.8% 98%  
288 0.2% 97%  
289 0.1% 97%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.7% 96%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.3% 95%  
295 0.5% 95%  
296 0.5% 95%  
297 1.2% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 0.3% 91%  
300 2% 90%  
301 1.4% 88%  
302 1.0% 87%  
303 2% 86%  
304 3% 83%  
305 4% 80%  
306 4% 76%  
307 0.8% 73%  
308 5% 72%  
309 0.7% 67% Last Result
310 0.5% 66%  
311 8% 66%  
312 6% 58%  
313 5% 52%  
314 5% 47% Median
315 4% 42%  
316 6% 38%  
317 2% 32%  
318 8% 30%  
319 7% 22%  
320 0.6% 15%  
321 0.3% 14%  
322 2% 14%  
323 0.7% 12%  
324 0.2% 11%  
325 1.1% 11%  
326 0.5% 10% Majority
327 0.1% 9%  
328 0.1% 9%  
329 0.5% 9%  
330 1.1% 9%  
331 0.1% 8%  
332 0.3% 7%  
333 0.3% 7%  
334 2% 7%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 0.3% 3%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.1% 3%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0% 1.4%  
347 0.1% 1.4%  
348 0.1% 1.3%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.2% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0.2% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.4%  
275 0.4% 99.3%  
276 0% 98.9%  
277 0.2% 98.9%  
278 0.1% 98.7%  
279 0% 98.6%  
280 0% 98.6%  
281 0.2% 98.5%  
282 0.1% 98%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.2% 97%  
288 0.4% 97%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 2% 96%  
291 0.7% 94%  
292 0.2% 93%  
293 0.3% 93%  
294 0.3% 93%  
295 0.9% 93%  
296 0.1% 92%  
297 0.6% 91%  
298 0.4% 91%  
299 1.1% 90%  
300 0.2% 89%  
301 0.2% 89%  
302 0.8% 89%  
303 2% 88%  
304 0.6% 86%  
305 0.3% 86%  
306 2% 85%  
307 10% 83%  
308 2% 73%  
309 3% 71%  
310 9% 68%  
311 3% 59%  
312 5% 56%  
313 4% 51% Median
314 4% 47%  
315 5% 43%  
316 5% 39%  
317 0.5% 33% Last Result
318 0.8% 33%  
319 5% 32%  
320 1.0% 27%  
321 9% 26%  
322 2% 16%  
323 0.4% 15%  
324 2% 14%  
325 2% 12%  
326 1.1% 10% Majority
327 0.7% 9%  
328 2% 9%  
329 0.2% 6%  
330 1.4% 6%  
331 0.1% 5%  
332 0.4% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.1% 4%  
335 0.1% 3%  
336 0.1% 3%  
337 0.2% 3%  
338 0.3% 3%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.7% 2%  
343 0.5% 1.1%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.5%  
347 0% 0.5%  
348 0.2% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.2% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.3% 99.6%  
257 0% 99.3%  
258 0.1% 99.2%  
259 0.1% 99.2%  
260 0.1% 99.1%  
261 0.4% 99.0%  
262 0.7% 98.6%  
263 0.5% 98%  
264 0.3% 97%  
265 0.1% 97%  
266 0% 97%  
267 0.5% 97%  
268 0.2% 96%  
269 0.2% 96%  
270 0.3% 96%  
271 2% 96%  
272 1.1% 94%  
273 1.4% 93%  
274 0.9% 91%  
275 3% 91%  
276 0.9% 88%  
277 0.4% 87%  
278 4% 87%  
279 4% 82%  
280 4% 79%  
281 6% 75%  
282 0.6% 69%  
283 1.0% 69%  
284 5% 68%  
285 0.8% 62%  
286 6% 62%  
287 4% 56%  
288 6% 52%  
289 5% 46% Median
290 3% 41%  
291 6% 38%  
292 5% 32%  
293 3% 27%  
294 7% 24%  
295 1.4% 17%  
296 1.5% 16%  
297 0.3% 14%  
298 0.4% 14%  
299 0.2% 13%  
300 0.2% 13%  
301 2% 13% Last Result
302 0.6% 11%  
303 0.9% 10%  
304 0.5% 9%  
305 0.2% 9%  
306 0.4% 9%  
307 0.5% 8%  
308 1.1% 8%  
309 0.1% 7%  
310 0.5% 6%  
311 0% 6%  
312 0.1% 6%  
313 3% 6%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0% 1.4%  
320 0.1% 1.4%  
321 0.1% 1.3%  
322 0% 1.3%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0.2% 1.2%  
325 0.1% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 0.9% Majority
327 0.1% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.2% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.5%  
254 0.1% 99.2%  
255 0.1% 99.1%  
256 0.1% 99.1%  
257 1.0% 98.9%  
258 0.1% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.6% 98%  
261 0% 97%  
262 0.4% 97%  
263 0.1% 97%  
264 0.1% 96%  
265 0.5% 96%  
266 0.5% 96%  
267 2% 95%  
268 0.1% 94%  
269 3% 94%  
270 2% 91%  
271 1.0% 89%  
272 1.0% 88%  
273 1.1% 87%  
274 6% 86%  
275 2% 80%  
276 0.4% 78%  
277 3% 77%  
278 6% 74%  
279 0.8% 68%  
280 0.6% 67%  
281 6% 67%  
282 3% 61%  
283 8% 58%  
284 5% 50%  
285 3% 45% Median
286 3% 42%  
287 2% 39%  
288 9% 37%  
289 8% 27%  
290 3% 19%  
291 1.4% 16%  
292 0.7% 15%  
293 0.6% 14%  
294 0.2% 13%  
295 0.1% 13%  
296 2% 13%  
297 0.6% 11% Last Result
298 1.2% 11%  
299 0.5% 9%  
300 0.1% 9%  
301 0.1% 9%  
302 0.2% 9%  
303 1.2% 8%  
304 0.4% 7%  
305 0.6% 7%  
306 0.3% 6%  
307 0% 6%  
308 2% 6%  
309 0.8% 4%  
310 0.4% 3%  
311 0.6% 3%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.1% 1.4%  
317 0% 1.3%  
318 0.1% 1.3%  
319 0% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 1.2%  
321 0.2% 1.1%  
322 0.1% 0.9%  
323 0.1% 0.8%  
324 0.3% 0.7%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.5%  
235 0.2% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.3%  
237 0.1% 99.1%  
238 0.9% 99.0%  
239 0.1% 98%  
240 0.1% 98%  
241 0.5% 98%  
242 0.1% 97%  
243 0.3% 97%  
244 0% 97%  
245 0.6% 97%  
246 0.4% 96%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 0.6% 96%  
249 0.4% 95%  
250 2% 95%  
251 2% 93%  
252 0.5% 91%  
253 0.5% 91%  
254 1.3% 90%  
255 4% 89%  
256 2% 85%  
257 2% 83%  
258 4% 81%  
259 0.6% 76%  
260 0.4% 75%  
261 5% 75%  
262 5% 70%  
263 6% 65%  
264 0.5% 59%  
265 3% 59%  
266 2% 56%  
267 8% 53% Median
268 7% 46%  
269 16% 39%  
270 2% 23%  
271 6% 21%  
272 0.3% 15%  
273 0.4% 15%  
274 1.4% 14%  
275 0.7% 13%  
276 0.3% 12%  
277 1.1% 12%  
278 0.5% 11% Last Result
279 1.2% 10%  
280 0.3% 9%  
281 0.2% 9%  
282 0.1% 9%  
283 0.2% 9%  
284 0.1% 8%  
285 3% 8%  
286 0.4% 5%  
287 0.2% 5%  
288 0.9% 4%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.2% 3%  
291 0.4% 3%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0% 3%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.1% 2%  
296 0.3% 2%  
297 0.1% 1.5%  
298 0.1% 1.4%  
299 0.2% 1.3%  
300 0% 1.1%  
301 0.2% 1.1%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.8%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.3%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.6%  
229 0% 99.5%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0.3% 99.5%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.7% 99.0%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.3% 98%  
236 0.2% 98%  
237 0.3% 98%  
238 0.2% 97%  
239 0.1% 97%  
240 0.8% 97%  
241 0.3% 96%  
242 0.5% 96%  
243 0.1% 96%  
244 0.7% 95%  
245 0.3% 95%  
246 0.5% 94%  
247 3% 94%  
248 0.4% 91%  
249 0.9% 90%  
250 0.8% 89%  
251 2% 89%  
252 5% 86%  
253 1.2% 81%  
254 3% 80%  
255 1.1% 76%  
256 0.6% 75%  
257 4% 75%  
258 5% 71%  
259 0.5% 66%  
260 9% 65%  
261 3% 56%  
262 5% 54%  
263 2% 49% Median
264 12% 47%  
265 9% 35%  
266 4% 26%  
267 2% 22%  
268 5% 20%  
269 1.5% 15%  
270 0.8% 13%  
271 0.4% 12%  
272 1.0% 12%  
273 0.5% 11%  
274 1.0% 10% Last Result
275 0.3% 9%  
276 0.2% 9%  
277 0.2% 9%  
278 0.1% 9%  
279 0.1% 9%  
280 3% 9%  
281 0.3% 6%  
282 0.7% 5%  
283 0.5% 4%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.5% 4%  
286 0.5% 3%  
287 0.1% 3%  
288 0.1% 3%  
289 0.1% 3%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.1% 2%  
294 0.2% 1.4%  
295 0% 1.2%  
296 0.1% 1.1%  
297 0% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 1.0%  
299 0% 0.8%  
300 0.1% 0.8%  
301 0.2% 0.7%  
302 0% 0.5%  
303 0.2% 0.5%  
304 0% 0.3%  
305 0% 0.3%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0.1% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.9%  
204 0.2% 99.8%  
205 0% 99.6%  
206 0% 99.6%  
207 0% 99.6%  
208 0.3% 99.6%  
209 0.2% 99.3%  
210 0.3% 99.1%  
211 0.4% 98.9%  
212 0.9% 98%  
213 0.1% 97%  
214 0% 97%  
215 0% 97%  
216 0.3% 97%  
217 0.2% 97%  
218 0.1% 97%  
219 0.7% 97%  
220 2% 96%  
221 0.3% 94%  
222 2% 94%  
223 0.6% 92%  
224 0.1% 91%  
225 0.4% 91%  
226 4% 91%  
227 7% 86%  
228 1.3% 80%  
229 2% 78%  
230 0.3% 76%  
231 5% 76%  
232 4% 71%  
233 6% 67%  
234 3% 61%  
235 2% 59%  
236 0.5% 57%  
237 6% 56%  
238 1.5% 50% Median
239 12% 49%  
240 14% 37%  
241 2% 23%  
242 5% 21%  
243 0.8% 16%  
244 0.5% 15%  
245 0.9% 15%  
246 0.1% 14%  
247 1.1% 13%  
248 0.5% 12%  
249 0.4% 12%  
250 1.4% 11%  
251 1.3% 10%  
252 0.1% 9%  
253 0.1% 9%  
254 0.1% 9%  
255 0% 8%  
256 0.1% 8%  
257 0.9% 8%  
258 1.3% 7%  
259 2% 6%  
260 0.3% 4%  
261 0% 3%  
262 0.9% 3%  
263 0.5% 3%  
264 0.1% 2%  
265 0.1% 2%  
266 0.3% 2% Last Result
267 0% 1.5%  
268 0.1% 1.4%  
269 0.1% 1.3%  
270 0.1% 1.2%  
271 0.2% 1.2%  
272 0% 1.0%  
273 0.2% 1.0%  
274 0.3% 0.8%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.2% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.6%  
201 0% 99.6%  
202 0% 99.6%  
203 0% 99.5%  
204 0.1% 99.5%  
205 0.4% 99.5%  
206 0.4% 99.1%  
207 1.0% 98.7%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 0% 97%  
210 0% 97%  
211 0.1% 97%  
212 0.1% 97%  
213 0.3% 97%  
214 0.2% 97%  
215 1.1% 97%  
216 2% 96%  
217 1.0% 94%  
218 0.9% 93%  
219 1.0% 92%  
220 0.3% 91%  
221 0.9% 91%  
222 4% 90%  
223 7% 86%  
224 2% 79%  
225 0.8% 78%  
226 0.9% 77%  
227 4% 76%  
228 6% 72%  
229 3% 66%  
230 5% 63%  
231 0.6% 58%  
232 1.1% 58%  
233 6% 57%  
234 5% 51% Median
235 10% 46%  
236 8% 36%  
237 10% 28%  
238 0.6% 18%  
239 1.4% 18%  
240 2% 16%  
241 0.2% 14%  
242 1.3% 14%  
243 0.4% 12%  
244 0.6% 12%  
245 1.5% 11%  
246 1.1% 10%  
247 0.1% 9%  
248 0.1% 9%  
249 0.1% 9%  
250 0% 9%  
251 0.1% 8%  
252 0.1% 8%  
253 0.9% 8%  
254 3% 7%  
255 0.6% 4%  
256 0.3% 4%  
257 0.4% 3%  
258 0.9% 3%  
259 0.1% 2%  
260 0.1% 2%  
261 0.1% 2%  
262 0.1% 2% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.3% 2%  
265 0.1% 1.3%  
266 0.1% 1.2%  
267 0.1% 1.2%  
268 0.2% 1.1%  
269 0.2% 0.9%  
270 0.1% 0.7%  
271 0% 0.5%  
272 0.1% 0.5%  
273 0% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.4%  
275 0% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations