Opinion Poll by ComRes for Daily Express, 14–15 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 39.4% 38.0–40.8% 37.6–41.2% 37.3–41.6% 36.6–42.2%
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.4% 36.0–38.8% 35.6–39.2% 35.3–39.5% 34.6–40.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.1% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 294 271–313 264–319 260–324 248–334
Conservative Party 317 275 259–298 255–304 251–309 244–323
Liberal Democrats 12 18 15–24 14–25 13–25 11–27
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 39 21–50 13–51 9–52 6–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 4–7 4–8 3–8

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.4%  
250 0.1% 99.3%  
251 0% 99.2%  
252 0.1% 99.2%  
253 0.1% 99.1%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98.7%  
256 0.1% 98.5%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 1.1% 97%  
262 0.4% 96% Last Result
263 0.4% 96%  
264 0.8% 95%  
265 0.3% 94%  
266 1.0% 94%  
267 0.4% 93%  
268 0.4% 93%  
269 0.4% 92%  
270 1.3% 92%  
271 1.4% 91%  
272 0.9% 89%  
273 0.8% 88%  
274 0.9% 87%  
275 0.5% 87%  
276 0.8% 86%  
277 1.0% 85%  
278 1.5% 84%  
279 1.3% 83%  
280 2% 81%  
281 1.2% 79%  
282 2% 78%  
283 2% 77%  
284 2% 75%  
285 2% 73%  
286 3% 71%  
287 3% 69%  
288 1.2% 66%  
289 3% 65%  
290 2% 62%  
291 3% 60%  
292 2% 58%  
293 3% 56%  
294 3% 52% Median
295 4% 49%  
296 3% 45%  
297 2% 42%  
298 4% 40%  
299 2% 36%  
300 1.4% 34%  
301 2% 32%  
302 2% 31%  
303 1.2% 29%  
304 4% 28%  
305 2% 24%  
306 3% 22%  
307 1.4% 19%  
308 1.4% 18%  
309 2% 16%  
310 2% 15%  
311 0.8% 13%  
312 2% 13%  
313 0.7% 11%  
314 0.7% 10%  
315 1.0% 9%  
316 0.7% 8%  
317 0.9% 8%  
318 0.8% 7%  
319 1.2% 6%  
320 0.7% 5%  
321 0.5% 4%  
322 0.4% 3%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0.2% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.8%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.2% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.2% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0.1% 99.1%  
248 0.3% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.7%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.7% 98%  
252 0.5% 97%  
253 0.6% 96%  
254 0.4% 96%  
255 1.0% 95%  
256 0.8% 94%  
257 0.6% 94%  
258 1.3% 93%  
259 3% 92%  
260 1.1% 89%  
261 1.3% 88%  
262 1.5% 87%  
263 2% 85%  
264 4% 84%  
265 6% 80%  
266 2% 74%  
267 2% 73%  
268 2% 70%  
269 2% 69%  
270 2% 66%  
271 3% 64%  
272 4% 61%  
273 3% 57%  
274 4% 54%  
275 2% 51% Median
276 1.4% 49%  
277 1.5% 47%  
278 3% 46%  
279 4% 43%  
280 4% 39%  
281 3% 35%  
282 4% 33%  
283 2% 29%  
284 1.5% 26%  
285 1.0% 25%  
286 0.6% 24%  
287 1.2% 23%  
288 2% 22%  
289 2% 21%  
290 0.7% 19%  
291 1.1% 18%  
292 2% 17%  
293 0.7% 16%  
294 2% 15%  
295 0.6% 13%  
296 0.6% 12%  
297 0.7% 12%  
298 1.3% 11%  
299 0.5% 10%  
300 0.6% 9%  
301 0.6% 9%  
302 1.0% 8%  
303 1.0% 7%  
304 1.2% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.2% 1.3%  
316 0.1% 1.1%  
317 0.1% 1.0% Last Result
318 0.1% 0.9%  
319 0.1% 0.8%  
320 0.1% 0.7%  
321 0% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.3% 99.7%  
12 1.2% 99.4% Last Result
13 1.0% 98%  
14 6% 97%  
15 9% 92%  
16 19% 82%  
17 7% 64%  
18 8% 57% Median
19 15% 49%  
20 12% 34%  
21 2% 22%  
22 7% 20%  
23 2% 13%  
24 5% 11%  
25 3% 6%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 1.1% 1.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 0.1% 99.6%  
6 0.3% 99.5%  
7 0.9% 99.3%  
8 0.3% 98%  
9 1.4% 98%  
10 0.1% 97%  
11 0.2% 97%  
12 0.6% 96%  
13 1.0% 96%  
14 0.2% 95%  
15 0.6% 95%  
16 0.7% 94%  
17 0.8% 93%  
18 0.5% 93%  
19 0.5% 92%  
20 0.9% 92%  
21 1.0% 91%  
22 0.8% 90%  
23 1.2% 89%  
24 2% 88%  
25 2% 86%  
26 4% 84%  
27 0.5% 80%  
28 7% 79%  
29 5% 73%  
30 2% 67%  
31 0.8% 65%  
32 2% 65%  
33 2% 63%  
34 1.3% 62%  
35 4% 60% Last Result
36 2% 56%  
37 0.3% 55%  
38 3% 55%  
39 5% 51% Median
40 4% 47%  
41 4% 43%  
42 3% 39%  
43 3% 37%  
44 3% 34%  
45 3% 31%  
46 3% 27%  
47 6% 24%  
48 4% 18%  
49 3% 15%  
50 2% 12%  
51 5% 9%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.8% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.8%  
4 10% 99.2% Last Result
5 81% 89% Median
6 3% 9%  
7 1.1% 6%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 355 95% 332–371 326–375 320–379 307–386
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 350 91% 327–366 321–370 315–374 302–381
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 336 77% 314–351 307–355 303–360 291–365
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 331 67% 309–346 302–350 297–355 285–360
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 318 31% 296–342 291–349 286–353 276–364
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 317 31% 294–339 286–344 282–349 271–359
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 313 22% 291–336 286–344 281–348 271–359
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 312 21% 288–334 281–339 277–344 265–354
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 299 4% 276–318 269–324 265–329 253–339
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 293 3% 279–316 275–323 270–327 265–339
Labour Party 262 294 2% 271–313 264–319 260–324 248–334
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 280 0.7% 264–303 260–309 256–315 249–328
Conservative Party 317 275 0.3% 259–298 255–304 251–309 244–323

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.1% 99.4%  
309 0% 99.4%  
310 0.1% 99.3%  
311 0.1% 99.2%  
312 0.1% 99.2%  
313 0.1% 99.0% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.0%  
315 0.2% 98.9%  
316 0.3% 98.7%  
317 0.2% 98%  
318 0.4% 98%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.3% 97%  
322 0.2% 97%  
323 0.4% 97%  
324 1.1% 97%  
325 0.5% 96%  
326 1.2% 95% Majority
327 1.0% 94%  
328 1.0% 93%  
329 0.6% 92%  
330 0.6% 91%  
331 0.5% 91%  
332 1.5% 90%  
333 0.6% 89%  
334 0.6% 88%  
335 0.8% 88%  
336 2% 87%  
337 0.7% 85%  
338 1.5% 84%  
339 1.1% 83%  
340 0.7% 82%  
341 2% 81%  
342 2% 79%  
343 1.1% 78%  
344 0.5% 77%  
345 1.0% 76%  
346 2% 75%  
347 2% 73%  
348 4% 71%  
349 3% 67%  
350 4% 65%  
351 4% 61%  
352 3% 57%  
353 1.5% 54%  
354 1.4% 53%  
355 2% 51%  
356 4% 49% Median
357 3% 45%  
358 4% 42%  
359 3% 39%  
360 2% 36%  
361 2% 34%  
362 2% 31%  
363 2% 29%  
364 2% 27%  
365 6% 26%  
366 4% 20%  
367 2% 16%  
368 1.4% 15%  
369 1.3% 13%  
370 1.2% 12%  
371 3% 11%  
372 1.2% 8%  
373 0.6% 7%  
374 0.8% 6%  
375 1.0% 6%  
376 0.5% 5%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.5% 4%  
379 0.7% 3%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.3%  
383 0.1% 1.0%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.3%  
306 0.1% 99.2%  
307 0.2% 99.1%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0.1% 98.9% Last Result
310 0.2% 98.8%  
311 0.3% 98.7%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.4% 98%  
314 0.2% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.2% 97%  
318 0.3% 97%  
319 1.0% 97%  
320 0.5% 96%  
321 1.2% 95%  
322 0.7% 94%  
323 1.2% 93%  
324 0.7% 92%  
325 0.6% 91%  
326 0.6% 91% Majority
327 2% 90%  
328 0.6% 88%  
329 0.4% 87%  
330 0.6% 87%  
331 2% 86%  
332 0.5% 85%  
333 2% 84%  
334 1.0% 83%  
335 0.6% 82%  
336 2% 81%  
337 2% 79%  
338 1.0% 77%  
339 0.9% 76%  
340 0.9% 76%  
341 2% 75%  
342 2% 73%  
343 4% 71%  
344 2% 67%  
345 4% 65%  
346 4% 61%  
347 3% 57%  
348 2% 55%  
349 2% 53%  
350 2% 51%  
351 4% 48% Median
352 3% 45%  
353 3% 41%  
354 3% 38%  
355 2% 36%  
356 3% 34%  
357 2% 31%  
358 2% 29%  
359 1.3% 27%  
360 5% 26%  
361 4% 21%  
362 2% 17%  
363 2% 15%  
364 1.4% 13%  
365 1.0% 12%  
366 3% 11%  
367 1.4% 8%  
368 0.5% 7%  
369 0.8% 6%  
370 0.9% 6%  
371 0.5% 5%  
372 0.5% 4%  
373 0.5% 4%  
374 0.7% 3%  
375 0.5% 2%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.3% 1.3%  
378 0.2% 1.1%  
379 0.2% 0.9%  
380 0.2% 0.7%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.1% 99.4%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0% 99.2%  
295 0.1% 99.2%  
296 0.2% 99.1%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0.1% 98.8%  
299 0.3% 98.7%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.4% 98% Last Result
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 0.2% 96%  
307 0.8% 96%  
308 0.2% 95%  
309 1.3% 95%  
310 0.5% 93%  
311 1.1% 93%  
312 0.7% 92%  
313 0.5% 91%  
314 1.2% 91%  
315 0.9% 90%  
316 0.9% 89%  
317 1.1% 88%  
318 0.9% 87%  
319 0.8% 86%  
320 1.4% 85%  
321 1.3% 83%  
322 1.3% 82%  
323 1.0% 81%  
324 1.3% 80%  
325 2% 79%  
326 1.3% 77% Majority
327 1.4% 76%  
328 1.2% 74%  
329 3% 73%  
330 3% 70%  
331 4% 67%  
332 3% 64%  
333 3% 61%  
334 3% 58%  
335 2% 55%  
336 3% 53%  
337 3% 50%  
338 3% 47% Median
339 4% 44%  
340 4% 40%  
341 2% 36%  
342 2% 34%  
343 4% 31%  
344 2% 28%  
345 3% 26%  
346 3% 23%  
347 2% 20%  
348 3% 19%  
349 2% 16%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 11%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 8%  
354 0.6% 6%  
355 0.8% 5%  
356 0.6% 5%  
357 0.4% 4%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.5% 3%  
360 0.7% 3%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.4% 1.5%  
363 0.3% 1.0%  
364 0.2% 0.8%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.3%  
288 0.1% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.2%  
290 0.1% 99.1%  
291 0.1% 99.0%  
292 0.1% 98.8%  
293 0.1% 98.7%  
294 0.3% 98.6%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.4% 98%  
297 0.3% 98% Last Result
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.4% 97%  
300 0.8% 97%  
301 0.2% 96%  
302 0.8% 96%  
303 0.2% 95%  
304 1.0% 95%  
305 1.0% 94%  
306 0.9% 93%  
307 0.8% 92%  
308 0.6% 91%  
309 2% 90%  
310 0.8% 89%  
311 0.5% 88%  
312 1.0% 87%  
313 0.9% 86%  
314 0.8% 86%  
315 2% 85%  
316 1.3% 83%  
317 1.2% 82%  
318 1.0% 81%  
319 1.3% 80%  
320 2% 78%  
321 2% 77%  
322 1.3% 75%  
323 1.1% 74%  
324 2% 73%  
325 4% 71%  
326 3% 67% Majority
327 3% 64%  
328 3% 61%  
329 3% 58%  
330 3% 55%  
331 2% 52%  
332 3% 50%  
333 3% 47% Median
334 4% 44%  
335 4% 40%  
336 2% 36%  
337 2% 34%  
338 3% 31%  
339 2% 28%  
340 3% 26%  
341 2% 23%  
342 2% 21%  
343 3% 19%  
344 3% 16%  
345 2% 14%  
346 1.5% 11%  
347 2% 10%  
348 2% 8%  
349 0.6% 6%  
350 0.7% 5%  
351 0.7% 5%  
352 0.4% 4%  
353 0.5% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.6% 3%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.2% 1.0%  
359 0.2% 0.8%  
360 0.2% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0.3% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 99.0%  
281 0.2% 98.8%  
282 0.2% 98.7%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.5% 97%  
288 0.6% 97%  
289 0.5% 96%  
290 0.3% 96%  
291 0.4% 95%  
292 0.5% 95%  
293 2% 94%  
294 1.5% 93%  
295 0.6% 91%  
296 1.0% 91%  
297 0.7% 90%  
298 0.7% 89%  
299 2% 88%  
300 0.9% 86%  
301 1.1% 85%  
302 2% 84%  
303 0.9% 82%  
304 2% 82%  
305 2% 79%  
306 3% 77%  
307 0.9% 74%  
308 1.4% 73%  
309 3% 72%  
310 1.2% 69%  
311 2% 68%  
312 2% 66%  
313 2% 63%  
314 2% 61%  
315 3% 59%  
316 3% 55%  
317 2% 53%  
318 2% 51%  
319 3% 49% Median
320 2% 46%  
321 2% 43%  
322 3% 41%  
323 2% 38%  
324 3% 36%  
325 2% 33%  
326 0.9% 31% Majority
327 2% 30%  
328 2% 28%  
329 3% 26%  
330 0.8% 23%  
331 0.9% 22%  
332 3% 21%  
333 0.4% 19%  
334 2% 18%  
335 1.0% 16%  
336 1.4% 15%  
337 0.6% 14%  
338 1.1% 13%  
339 0.4% 12%  
340 0.8% 12%  
341 0.8% 11%  
342 1.5% 10%  
343 0.6% 9%  
344 0.3% 8%  
345 1.0% 8%  
346 0.3% 7%  
347 0.6% 7%  
348 0.5% 6%  
349 0.6% 5%  
350 1.1% 5%  
351 0.3% 4%  
352 0.6% 3%  
353 0.4% 3%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.3% 2% Last Result
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.1% 1.3%  
359 0.2% 1.2%  
360 0.1% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.5%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0% 99.2%  
275 0.2% 99.2%  
276 0.2% 99.0%  
277 0.1% 98.9%  
278 0.2% 98.7% Last Result
279 0.3% 98.5%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 0.3% 97%  
285 1.0% 96%  
286 0.6% 95%  
287 0.4% 95%  
288 0.7% 94%  
289 0.5% 94%  
290 0.7% 93%  
291 0.7% 92%  
292 0.3% 92%  
293 1.2% 91%  
294 0.8% 90%  
295 1.1% 89%  
296 0.3% 88%  
297 1.5% 88%  
298 0.5% 87%  
299 1.3% 86%  
300 0.9% 85%  
301 2% 84%  
302 0.6% 82%  
303 3% 81%  
304 0.8% 79%  
305 1.0% 78%  
306 3% 77%  
307 2% 74%  
308 2% 72%  
309 1.0% 70%  
310 2% 69%  
311 3% 67%  
312 3% 64%  
313 2% 62%  
314 3% 60%  
315 2% 57%  
316 3% 54%  
317 2% 51% Median
318 2% 49%  
319 2% 47%  
320 4% 45%  
321 1.4% 41%  
322 2% 39%  
323 3% 37%  
324 2% 34%  
325 1.5% 32%  
326 3% 31% Majority
327 1.3% 28%  
328 0.9% 27%  
329 2% 26%  
330 3% 24%  
331 2% 21%  
332 1.0% 18%  
333 1.4% 17%  
334 1.1% 16%  
335 1.1% 15%  
336 2% 14%  
337 0.6% 12%  
338 0.7% 11%  
339 1.0% 10%  
340 0.7% 9%  
341 1.2% 8%  
342 2% 7%  
343 0.6% 6%  
344 0.3% 5%  
345 0.5% 5%  
346 0.5% 4%  
347 0.6% 4%  
348 0.5% 3%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.1% 2%  
352 0.5% 2%  
353 0.1% 1.4%  
354 0.2% 1.3%  
355 0.1% 1.1%  
356 0.3% 1.0%  
357 0.1% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.3% 99.3%  
275 0.1% 99.0%  
276 0.2% 98.9%  
277 0.1% 98.7%  
278 0.5% 98.6%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.5% 97%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 0.5% 96%  
286 0.3% 95%  
287 0.6% 95%  
288 2% 94%  
289 1.2% 93%  
290 0.7% 91%  
291 1.0% 91%  
292 0.7% 90%  
293 0.6% 89%  
294 2% 88%  
295 1.0% 86%  
296 1.1% 85%  
297 1.5% 84%  
298 0.9% 83%  
299 2% 82%  
300 3% 79%  
301 2% 76%  
302 0.9% 74%  
303 1.2% 73%  
304 3% 72%  
305 1.4% 69%  
306 2% 68%  
307 3% 66%  
308 2% 63%  
309 1.4% 61%  
310 4% 59%  
311 2% 55%  
312 2% 52%  
313 2% 50%  
314 3% 49% Median
315 3% 45%  
316 2% 43%  
317 2% 40%  
318 3% 38%  
319 3% 35%  
320 2% 33%  
321 0.9% 31%  
322 2% 30%  
323 3% 28%  
324 3% 26%  
325 0.9% 23%  
326 0.8% 22% Majority
327 3% 21%  
328 0.6% 19%  
329 2% 18%  
330 0.9% 16%  
331 1.3% 15%  
332 0.7% 14%  
333 1.3% 13%  
334 0.3% 12%  
335 1.2% 12%  
336 0.7% 10%  
337 1.2% 10%  
338 0.4% 9%  
339 0.6% 8%  
340 0.6% 8%  
341 0.5% 7%  
342 0.7% 6%  
343 0.4% 6%  
344 0.6% 5%  
345 1.0% 5%  
346 0.3% 4%  
347 0.6% 3%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.5% Last Result
353 0.1% 1.3%  
354 0.2% 1.1%  
355 0.1% 0.9%  
356 0% 0.8%  
357 0.1% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.2% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 98.9%  
272 0.1% 98.8%  
273 0.2% 98.7%  
274 0.3% 98% Last Result
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.6% 97%  
279 0.3% 97%  
280 1.1% 96%  
281 0.6% 95%  
282 0.5% 95%  
283 0.6% 94%  
284 0.3% 93%  
285 1.0% 93%  
286 0.5% 92%  
287 0.5% 92%  
288 2% 91%  
289 0.7% 90%  
290 0.9% 89%  
291 0.4% 88%  
292 1.3% 88%  
293 0.4% 86%  
294 1.4% 86%  
295 1.0% 85%  
296 2% 84%  
297 0.4% 82%  
298 3% 81%  
299 0.9% 79%  
300 0.8% 78%  
301 3% 77%  
302 2% 74%  
303 2% 72%  
304 1.0% 70%  
305 2% 69%  
306 3% 67%  
307 2% 64%  
308 3% 62%  
309 3% 59%  
310 2% 56%  
311 3% 54%  
312 2% 51% Median
313 2% 49%  
314 3% 47%  
315 3% 45%  
316 2% 41%  
317 3% 39%  
318 2% 37%  
319 2% 34%  
320 1.3% 32%  
321 3% 31%  
322 1.4% 28%  
323 0.9% 27%  
324 3% 26%  
325 2% 23%  
326 2% 21% Majority
327 1.1% 18%  
328 2% 17%  
329 1.1% 16%  
330 0.9% 15%  
331 2% 14%  
332 0.7% 12%  
333 0.7% 11%  
334 0.9% 10%  
335 0.6% 9%  
336 1.5% 9%  
337 2% 7%  
338 0.5% 6%  
339 0.4% 5%  
340 0.4% 5%  
341 0.5% 4%  
342 0.6% 4%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.3%  
350 0.1% 1.1%  
351 0.3% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.4%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0% 99.2%  
257 0.1% 99.2%  
258 0.1% 99.1%  
259 0.2% 99.0%  
260 0.3% 98.8%  
261 0.1% 98.6%  
262 0.2% 98%  
263 0.5% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 1.1% 97% Last Result
267 0.4% 96%  
268 0.4% 96%  
269 0.8% 95%  
270 0.4% 95%  
271 1.3% 94%  
272 0.1% 93%  
273 0.4% 93%  
274 0.4% 92%  
275 0.8% 92%  
276 1.5% 91%  
277 1.2% 90%  
278 1.0% 89%  
279 1.0% 88%  
280 0.3% 87%  
281 0.9% 86%  
282 1.0% 85%  
283 2% 84%  
284 1.1% 83%  
285 2% 82%  
286 1.1% 79%  
287 1.3% 78%  
288 2% 77%  
289 1.4% 75%  
290 2% 73%  
291 3% 72%  
292 3% 69%  
293 0.9% 66%  
294 3% 65%  
295 2% 62%  
296 3% 61%  
297 2% 58%  
298 3% 56%  
299 3% 52% Median
300 6% 50%  
301 2% 44%  
302 2% 42%  
303 4% 40%  
304 3% 36%  
305 0.7% 33%  
306 2% 33%  
307 2% 31%  
308 2% 29%  
309 3% 27%  
310 2% 24%  
311 3% 22%  
312 1.3% 19%  
313 1.5% 18%  
314 2% 16%  
315 2% 15%  
316 0.8% 13%  
317 2% 13%  
318 1.1% 11%  
319 0.6% 10%  
320 1.2% 9%  
321 0.7% 8%  
322 0.8% 7%  
323 0.8% 7%  
324 1.2% 6%  
325 0.7% 5%  
326 0.5% 4% Majority
327 0.5% 4%  
328 0.4% 3%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.4%  
334 0.3% 1.2%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0% 0.8%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.3% 99.2%  
268 0.4% 99.0%  
269 0.3% 98.5%  
270 0.7% 98%  
271 0.5% 97%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.4% 96%  
274 0.6% 96%  
275 0.8% 95%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 2% 94%  
278 2% 92%  
279 2% 90%  
280 2% 89%  
281 2% 86%  
282 3% 84%  
283 2% 81%  
284 3% 80%  
285 3% 77%  
286 2% 74%  
287 3% 72%  
288 2% 68%  
289 2% 66%  
290 4% 64%  
291 4% 60%  
292 3% 56%  
293 3% 53% Median
294 3% 50%  
295 2% 47%  
296 3% 45%  
297 3% 42%  
298 3% 39%  
299 4% 36%  
300 3% 33%  
301 3% 29%  
302 1.2% 27%  
303 1.5% 26%  
304 1.2% 24%  
305 2% 23%  
306 1.3% 21%  
307 1.0% 20%  
308 1.3% 19%  
309 1.4% 18%  
310 1.3% 16%  
311 0.8% 15%  
312 0.9% 14%  
313 1.1% 13%  
314 1.2% 12%  
315 0.6% 11%  
316 1.1% 10%  
317 0.6% 9%  
318 0.6% 9%  
319 1.1% 8%  
320 0.5% 7%  
321 1.3% 6%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 0.8% 5%  
324 0.3% 4%  
325 0.7% 4%  
326 0.6% 3% Majority
327 0.2% 3%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.4% 2% Last Result
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.1% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.4%  
250 0.1% 99.3%  
251 0% 99.2%  
252 0.1% 99.2%  
253 0.1% 99.1%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98.7%  
256 0.1% 98.5%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 1.1% 97%  
262 0.4% 96% Last Result
263 0.4% 96%  
264 0.8% 95%  
265 0.3% 94%  
266 1.0% 94%  
267 0.4% 93%  
268 0.4% 93%  
269 0.4% 92%  
270 1.3% 92%  
271 1.4% 91%  
272 0.9% 89%  
273 0.8% 88%  
274 0.9% 87%  
275 0.5% 87%  
276 0.8% 86%  
277 1.0% 85%  
278 1.5% 84%  
279 1.3% 83%  
280 2% 81%  
281 1.2% 79%  
282 2% 78%  
283 2% 77%  
284 2% 75%  
285 2% 73%  
286 3% 71%  
287 3% 69%  
288 1.2% 66%  
289 3% 65%  
290 2% 62%  
291 3% 60%  
292 2% 58%  
293 3% 56%  
294 3% 52% Median
295 4% 49%  
296 3% 45%  
297 2% 42%  
298 4% 40%  
299 2% 36%  
300 1.4% 34%  
301 2% 32%  
302 2% 31%  
303 1.2% 29%  
304 4% 28%  
305 2% 24%  
306 3% 22%  
307 1.4% 19%  
308 1.4% 18%  
309 2% 16%  
310 2% 15%  
311 0.8% 13%  
312 2% 13%  
313 0.7% 11%  
314 0.7% 10%  
315 1.0% 9%  
316 0.7% 8%  
317 0.9% 8%  
318 0.8% 7%  
319 1.2% 6%  
320 0.7% 5%  
321 0.5% 4%  
322 0.4% 3%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0.2% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.8%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.2% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 99.1%  
253 0.3% 98.9%  
254 0.5% 98.6%  
255 0.5% 98%  
256 0.7% 98%  
257 0.5% 97%  
258 0.6% 96%  
259 0.5% 96%  
260 0.9% 95%  
261 0.8% 94%  
262 0.5% 94%  
263 1.4% 93%  
264 3% 92%  
265 0.9% 89%  
266 1.4% 88%  
267 2% 87%  
268 2% 85%  
269 4% 83%  
270 5% 79%  
271 1.3% 74%  
272 2% 73%  
273 2% 71%  
274 3% 69%  
275 2% 66%  
276 3% 64%  
277 3% 61%  
278 3% 58%  
279 4% 55%  
280 2% 51% Median
281 2% 49%  
282 2% 47%  
283 3% 45%  
284 4% 42%  
285 4% 39%  
286 2% 35%  
287 4% 33%  
288 2% 29%  
289 2% 27%  
290 0.9% 25%  
291 0.9% 24%  
292 1.1% 23%  
293 1.5% 22%  
294 2% 21%  
295 0.7% 19%  
296 0.9% 18%  
297 2% 17%  
298 0.6% 16%  
299 2% 15%  
300 0.5% 13%  
301 0.4% 13%  
302 0.6% 12%  
303 2% 12%  
304 0.5% 10%  
305 0.6% 9%  
306 0.7% 9%  
307 1.2% 8%  
308 0.7% 7%  
309 1.2% 6%  
310 0.5% 5%  
311 1.0% 4%  
312 0.4% 3%  
313 0.2% 3%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.1% 1.2% Last Result
322 0.1% 1.1%  
323 0.1% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.2% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0.1% 99.1%  
248 0.3% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.7%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.7% 98%  
252 0.5% 97%  
253 0.6% 96%  
254 0.4% 96%  
255 1.0% 95%  
256 0.8% 94%  
257 0.6% 94%  
258 1.3% 93%  
259 3% 92%  
260 1.1% 89%  
261 1.3% 88%  
262 1.5% 87%  
263 2% 85%  
264 4% 84%  
265 6% 80%  
266 2% 74%  
267 2% 73%  
268 2% 70%  
269 2% 69%  
270 2% 66%  
271 3% 64%  
272 4% 61%  
273 3% 57%  
274 4% 54%  
275 2% 51% Median
276 1.4% 49%  
277 1.5% 47%  
278 3% 46%  
279 4% 43%  
280 4% 39%  
281 3% 35%  
282 4% 33%  
283 2% 29%  
284 1.5% 26%  
285 1.0% 25%  
286 0.6% 24%  
287 1.2% 23%  
288 2% 22%  
289 2% 21%  
290 0.7% 19%  
291 1.1% 18%  
292 2% 17%  
293 0.7% 16%  
294 2% 15%  
295 0.6% 13%  
296 0.6% 12%  
297 0.7% 12%  
298 1.3% 11%  
299 0.5% 10%  
300 0.6% 9%  
301 0.6% 9%  
302 1.0% 8%  
303 1.0% 7%  
304 1.2% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.2% 1.3%  
316 0.1% 1.1%  
317 0.1% 1.0% Last Result
318 0.1% 0.9%  
319 0.1% 0.8%  
320 0.1% 0.7%  
321 0% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations