Opinion Poll by ComRes for Sunday Express, 16–17 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.0% 36.6–39.4% 36.2–39.8% 35.9–40.1% 35.3–40.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.0% 35.6–38.4% 35.2–38.8% 34.9–39.1% 34.2–39.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 291 273–319 266–323 260–326 255–333
Labour Party 262 265 244–290 236–296 236–303 231–314
Liberal Democrats 12 27 23–28 22–28 21–29 19–31
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 39 23–48 17–50 13–50 6–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–6 4–8 3–8 3–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.5% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.0%  
257 0.2% 98.9%  
258 0.7% 98.8%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.2% 97%  
262 1.0% 97%  
263 0.2% 96%  
264 0.8% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 0.5% 94%  
268 0.1% 94%  
269 2% 94%  
270 0.7% 92%  
271 1.0% 91%  
272 0.4% 90%  
273 3% 90%  
274 1.1% 88%  
275 0.2% 86%  
276 1.2% 86%  
277 0.6% 85%  
278 2% 85%  
279 2% 82%  
280 0.4% 80%  
281 4% 80%  
282 0.8% 76%  
283 6% 76%  
284 3% 69%  
285 0.5% 66%  
286 2% 66%  
287 0.4% 64%  
288 4% 63%  
289 2% 60%  
290 2% 57%  
291 6% 56% Median
292 2% 49%  
293 2% 48%  
294 0.5% 46%  
295 2% 45%  
296 2% 43%  
297 2% 41%  
298 0.8% 39%  
299 0.8% 38%  
300 3% 38%  
301 1.1% 35%  
302 2% 34%  
303 2% 32%  
304 0.7% 30%  
305 0.4% 29%  
306 0.1% 29%  
307 0.7% 29%  
308 1.2% 28%  
309 4% 27%  
310 0.6% 23%  
311 0.3% 23%  
312 4% 22%  
313 3% 18%  
314 0.6% 16%  
315 0.5% 15%  
316 4% 14%  
317 0.3% 11% Last Result
318 0.2% 10%  
319 2% 10%  
320 2% 8%  
321 1.1% 6%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 0.6% 5%  
324 0.4% 5%  
325 1.1% 4%  
326 0.9% 3% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.6% 1.5%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0.1% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.7%  
232 0.2% 99.5%  
233 0.1% 99.3%  
234 0.8% 99.3%  
235 0.7% 98%  
236 3% 98%  
237 0.7% 95%  
238 1.2% 94%  
239 0.1% 93%  
240 0.3% 93%  
241 1.1% 93%  
242 0.1% 92%  
243 0.3% 91%  
244 1.1% 91%  
245 2% 90%  
246 0.6% 88%  
247 0.3% 87%  
248 0.3% 87%  
249 0.6% 87%  
250 1.5% 86%  
251 3% 85%  
252 5% 82%  
253 0.2% 77%  
254 1.4% 77%  
255 1.1% 76%  
256 0.4% 75%  
257 2% 74%  
258 2% 73%  
259 7% 71%  
260 7% 64%  
261 2% 57%  
262 3% 54% Last Result
263 0.1% 51%  
264 1.3% 51%  
265 0.2% 50% Median
266 0.1% 50%  
267 0.2% 50%  
268 0.1% 50%  
269 7% 50%  
270 2% 43%  
271 0.5% 41%  
272 0.2% 40%  
273 0.5% 40%  
274 1.0% 39%  
275 0.3% 38%  
276 0.2% 38%  
277 4% 38%  
278 3% 34%  
279 2% 31%  
280 0.2% 29%  
281 3% 29%  
282 3% 25%  
283 0.3% 22%  
284 2% 22%  
285 0.5% 20%  
286 6% 20%  
287 0.2% 14%  
288 0.9% 13%  
289 2% 13%  
290 1.3% 11%  
291 2% 9%  
292 0.3% 8%  
293 0.3% 7%  
294 0.2% 7%  
295 1.1% 7%  
296 0.8% 6%  
297 0.4% 5%  
298 0.6% 4%  
299 0.1% 4%  
300 0.2% 4%  
301 0.1% 4%  
302 0.8% 3%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.3%  
311 0% 1.2%  
312 0.1% 1.2%  
313 0% 1.1%  
314 0.7% 1.1%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.8%  
19 0.3% 99.6%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 3% 98%  
22 3% 95%  
23 5% 92%  
24 2% 87%  
25 17% 85%  
26 11% 68%  
27 43% 57% Median
28 9% 14%  
29 2% 4%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 100% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0.7% 99.7%  
7 0.2% 99.0%  
8 0.1% 98.8%  
9 0.2% 98.7%  
10 0.7% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0.2% 98%  
13 0.6% 98%  
14 2% 97%  
15 0% 95%  
16 0.1% 95%  
17 0.4% 95%  
18 0.1% 95%  
19 0.4% 95%  
20 2% 94%  
21 2% 93%  
22 0% 90%  
23 1.0% 90%  
24 1.4% 89%  
25 0.3% 88%  
26 2% 88%  
27 6% 86%  
28 0.3% 79%  
29 8% 79%  
30 1.0% 71%  
31 0.5% 70%  
32 4% 69%  
33 0.1% 65%  
34 0.2% 65%  
35 1.4% 65% Last Result
36 0.4% 63%  
37 0.2% 63%  
38 8% 63%  
39 7% 54% Median
40 7% 47%  
41 3% 40%  
42 2% 37%  
43 0.2% 35%  
44 3% 35%  
45 2% 31%  
46 2% 29%  
47 7% 27%  
48 12% 20%  
49 0.3% 8%  
50 6% 8%  
51 1.4% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.7%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 5% 99.9%  
4 4% 95% Last Result
5 78% 91% Median
6 4% 13%  
7 0.7% 10%  
8 9% 9%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 339 71% 311–357 307–364 304–370 297–375
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 338 69% 313–360 307–368 300–370 289–377
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 334 62% 306–352 302–359 299–365 292–370
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 333 61% 308–355 302–362 295–365 284–372
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 318 38% 297–343 293–347 288–349 282–356
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 312 17% 287–333 283–337 281–342 274–348
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 307 11% 281–327 278–332 276–337 268–343
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 297 6% 275–322 268–328 265–335 258–346
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 296 6% 278–324 271–328 265–331 260–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 292 4% 270–317 262–323 260–330 253–341
Conservative Party 317 291 3% 273–319 266–323 260–326 255–333
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 270 0.1% 251–295 242–301 241–308 237–319
Labour Party 262 265 0% 244–290 236–296 236–303 231–314

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.4%  
299 0.2% 99.3%  
300 0% 99.2%  
301 0.6% 99.1%  
302 0.6% 98.5%  
303 0.1% 98%  
304 1.0% 98%  
305 1.0% 97%  
306 0.4% 96%  
307 0.6% 95%  
308 0.1% 95%  
309 1.1% 95%  
310 2% 94%  
311 2% 92%  
312 0.2% 90%  
313 0.3% 90% Last Result
314 4% 89%  
315 0.5% 86%  
316 0.6% 85%  
317 3% 84%  
318 4% 82%  
319 0.3% 78%  
320 0.6% 77%  
321 4% 77%  
322 1.1% 73%  
323 0.7% 72%  
324 0.1% 71%  
325 0.4% 71%  
326 0.7% 71% Majority
327 2% 70%  
328 2% 68%  
329 1.1% 66%  
330 3% 65%  
331 0.8% 62%  
332 0.8% 62%  
333 2% 61%  
334 2% 59%  
335 2% 57%  
336 0.5% 55% Median
337 2% 54%  
338 2% 52%  
339 6% 51%  
340 2% 44%  
341 2% 43%  
342 4% 40%  
343 0.4% 37%  
344 2% 36%  
345 0.5% 34%  
346 3% 34%  
347 6% 31%  
348 0.9% 24%  
349 4% 24%  
350 0.5% 20%  
351 2% 20%  
352 2% 18%  
353 0.6% 15%  
354 1.2% 15%  
355 0.2% 14%  
356 1.1% 14%  
357 3% 12%  
358 0.4% 10%  
359 1.0% 10%  
360 0.7% 9%  
361 2% 8%  
362 0.1% 6%  
363 0.5% 6%  
364 0.7% 6%  
365 0.3% 5%  
366 0.8% 5%  
367 0.2% 4%  
368 1.0% 4%  
369 0.2% 3%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.7% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.2%  
374 0.1% 1.1%  
375 0.5% 1.0%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.6% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 98.9%  
291 0.1% 98.8%  
292 0% 98.8%  
293 0.1% 98.7%  
294 0.1% 98.7%  
295 0.5% 98.5%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0% 98%  
298 0% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 0.2% 97%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 0.1% 96%  
305 0.4% 96%  
306 0.4% 96%  
307 0.6% 95%  
308 0.1% 95%  
309 0.4% 95%  
310 2% 94%  
311 0.5% 93%  
312 0.9% 92%  
313 1.3% 91%  
314 2% 90%  
315 0.7% 88%  
316 0.4% 87%  
317 5% 87%  
318 0.9% 82%  
319 0.7% 81%  
320 0.4% 80%  
321 1.5% 80%  
322 5% 78%  
323 0.3% 73%  
324 3% 73%  
325 0.6% 70%  
326 4% 69% Majority
327 0.6% 65%  
328 0.1% 65%  
329 1.4% 64%  
330 2% 63%  
331 0.3% 61%  
332 1.0% 60%  
333 2% 59%  
334 6% 57%  
335 0.1% 51% Median
336 0.2% 51%  
337 0.2% 50%  
338 0.4% 50%  
339 1.2% 50%  
340 3% 49%  
341 0.9% 46%  
342 1.4% 45%  
343 0.4% 44%  
344 12% 43%  
345 3% 32%  
346 1.1% 29%  
347 0.4% 28%  
348 1.4% 28%  
349 2% 26%  
350 0.5% 25%  
351 0.6% 24%  
352 3% 24%  
353 5% 20%  
354 0.5% 15%  
355 1.2% 15%  
356 0.1% 14% Last Result
357 0.6% 14%  
358 0.3% 13%  
359 0.3% 13%  
360 3% 13%  
361 1.1% 10%  
362 0.3% 9%  
363 0.2% 8%  
364 0.5% 8%  
365 0.4% 8%  
366 0.7% 7%  
367 2% 7%  
368 1.4% 5%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.6% 3%  
371 1.3% 2%  
372 0.1% 1.0%  
373 0.2% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.7%  
375 0% 0.6%  
376 0% 0.6%  
377 0.2% 0.6%  
378 0.3% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.3% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0.3% 99.2%  
295 0% 99.0%  
296 0.6% 98.9%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 1.2% 98%  
300 0.9% 97%  
301 0.4% 96%  
302 0.5% 95%  
303 0.3% 95%  
304 1.0% 95%  
305 2% 94%  
306 2% 92%  
307 0.3% 90%  
308 0.5% 90%  
309 6% 89% Last Result
310 0.5% 83%  
311 0.6% 82%  
312 0.3% 82%  
313 4% 81%  
314 0.2% 77%  
315 0.5% 77%  
316 3% 77%  
317 0.9% 73%  
318 0.9% 72%  
319 2% 72%  
320 0.5% 70%  
321 0.8% 69%  
322 1.0% 68%  
323 2% 67%  
324 1.0% 66%  
325 3% 65%  
326 0.5% 62% Majority
327 0.9% 61%  
328 2% 60%  
329 0.3% 59%  
330 2% 59%  
331 2% 57% Median
332 2% 54%  
333 2% 52%  
334 5% 50%  
335 3% 45%  
336 2% 42%  
337 4% 40%  
338 0.4% 36%  
339 2% 36%  
340 0.4% 34%  
341 3% 34%  
342 6% 31%  
343 0.9% 24%  
344 4% 23%  
345 0.5% 20%  
346 3% 19%  
347 1.2% 17%  
348 0.3% 15%  
349 2% 15%  
350 0.1% 13%  
351 1.0% 13%  
352 2% 12%  
353 1.0% 10%  
354 0.4% 9%  
355 0.7% 8%  
356 2% 8%  
357 0.3% 6%  
358 0.4% 6%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 0.1% 5%  
361 0.9% 5%  
362 0.2% 4%  
363 0.8% 4%  
364 0.2% 3%  
365 0.4% 3%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.7% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.2%  
369 0.1% 1.1%  
370 0.5% 1.0%  
371 0% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.6% 99.5%  
285 0.1% 98.9%  
286 0.1% 98.8%  
287 0% 98.7%  
288 0.1% 98.7%  
289 0% 98.6%  
290 0.5% 98.6%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0% 98%  
293 0% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.2% 97%  
297 0.8% 97%  
298 0.2% 96%  
299 0.2% 96%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 0.3% 96%  
302 0.6% 95%  
303 0.2% 95%  
304 0.4% 94%  
305 1.4% 94%  
306 0.6% 93%  
307 2% 92%  
308 0.2% 90%  
309 2% 90%  
310 0.9% 88%  
311 0.4% 87%  
312 5% 87%  
313 2% 82%  
314 0.9% 80%  
315 0.1% 80%  
316 2% 79%  
317 5% 78%  
318 0.2% 73%  
319 3% 73%  
320 0.6% 70%  
321 5% 69%  
322 0.5% 64%  
323 0.2% 64%  
324 0.6% 64%  
325 2% 63%  
326 0.5% 61% Majority
327 0.5% 60%  
328 3% 60%  
329 6% 57%  
330 0.1% 51% Median
331 0.2% 51%  
332 0.3% 50%  
333 0.3% 50%  
334 1.2% 50%  
335 0.5% 49%  
336 1.0% 48%  
337 2% 47%  
338 3% 45%  
339 11% 42%  
340 3% 31%  
341 0.1% 28%  
342 0.3% 28%  
343 1.4% 27%  
344 2% 26%  
345 0.2% 24%  
346 0.1% 24%  
347 3% 24%  
348 5% 20%  
349 1.0% 15%  
350 0.8% 14%  
351 0.1% 14%  
352 2% 14% Last Result
353 0.7% 11%  
354 0.3% 10%  
355 1.0% 10%  
356 0.4% 9%  
357 0.3% 9%  
358 0.1% 8%  
359 0.5% 8%  
360 0.5% 8%  
361 1.1% 7%  
362 2% 6%  
363 1.2% 5%  
364 0.6% 3%  
365 0.6% 3%  
366 1.2% 2%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.7%  
370 0% 0.6%  
371 0% 0.6%  
372 0.2% 0.5%  
373 0.2% 0.4%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0.1% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0.5% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.1%  
284 0.3% 99.0%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 1.0% 97%  
290 0.4% 96%  
291 0.4% 96%  
292 0.5% 96%  
293 0.6% 95%  
294 0.8% 95%  
295 2% 94%  
296 1.2% 92%  
297 1.0% 91%  
298 0.2% 90%  
299 0.4% 90%  
300 1.1% 89%  
301 2% 88%  
302 1.0% 86%  
303 2% 85%  
304 0.4% 83%  
305 0.4% 83%  
306 3% 83%  
307 0.3% 80%  
308 5% 79%  
309 1.4% 74%  
310 6% 73%  
311 3% 66%  
312 1.0% 63%  
313 0.4% 63%  
314 0.5% 62%  
315 3% 62%  
316 0.8% 58%  
317 7% 57%  
318 3% 51% Median
319 2% 48%  
320 3% 46%  
321 0.8% 43%  
322 0.1% 42%  
323 0.6% 42%  
324 3% 41%  
325 0.4% 38%  
326 2% 38% Majority
327 2% 36%  
328 0.4% 34%  
329 2% 33% Last Result
330 2% 31%  
331 1.2% 29%  
332 0.2% 28%  
333 0% 28%  
334 0.2% 28%  
335 2% 27%  
336 3% 26%  
337 0.4% 23%  
338 3% 22%  
339 4% 20%  
340 0.7% 16%  
341 4% 15%  
342 0.4% 11%  
343 0.3% 10%  
344 2% 10%  
345 0.6% 8%  
346 1.1% 8%  
347 2% 7%  
348 0.7% 5%  
349 2% 4%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.5% 2%  
353 0.4% 1.3%  
354 0.3% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0.2% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.2% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.4%  
276 0.3% 99.4%  
277 0.4% 99.1%  
278 0.5% 98.7%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 2% 98%  
282 0.8% 96%  
283 2% 95%  
284 1.1% 93%  
285 0.6% 92%  
286 2% 92%  
287 0.3% 90%  
288 0.4% 90%  
289 4% 89%  
290 0.7% 85%  
291 4% 84%  
292 3% 80%  
293 0.4% 78%  
294 3% 77%  
295 2% 74%  
296 0.1% 72%  
297 0% 72%  
298 0.3% 72%  
299 1.2% 72%  
300 2% 71%  
301 2% 69% Last Result
302 0.4% 67%  
303 2% 66%  
304 2% 64%  
305 0.4% 62%  
306 3% 62%  
307 0.6% 59%  
308 0.1% 58%  
309 0.8% 58% Median
310 3% 57%  
311 2% 54%  
312 3% 52%  
313 7% 49%  
314 0.8% 43%  
315 3% 42%  
316 0.5% 38%  
317 0.4% 38%  
318 1.0% 37%  
319 3% 37%  
320 6% 34%  
321 1.4% 27%  
322 5% 26%  
323 0.3% 21%  
324 3% 20%  
325 0.4% 17%  
326 0.4% 17% Majority
327 2% 17%  
328 1.1% 15%  
329 2% 14%  
330 1.1% 12%  
331 0.4% 11%  
332 0.2% 10%  
333 1.0% 10%  
334 1.2% 9%  
335 2% 8%  
336 0.8% 6%  
337 0.6% 5%  
338 0.5% 5%  
339 0.4% 4%  
340 0.4% 4%  
341 1.0% 4%  
342 0.1% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.2%  
347 0.1% 1.0%  
348 0.5% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.2% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.4%  
270 0.1% 99.3%  
271 0.3% 99.2%  
272 0.3% 99.0%  
273 0.5% 98.6%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 2% 98%  
277 0.5% 96%  
278 2% 95%  
279 1.1% 93%  
280 0.7% 92%  
281 2% 92%  
282 0.4% 90%  
283 0.5% 89%  
284 6% 89%  
285 0.6% 83%  
286 4% 82%  
287 0.2% 78%  
288 0.4% 78%  
289 3% 77%  
290 2% 74%  
291 0.1% 73%  
292 1.3% 72%  
293 0.4% 71%  
294 1.2% 71%  
295 0.4% 70%  
296 2% 69%  
297 0.8% 67% Last Result
298 2% 66%  
299 2% 64%  
300 0.3% 62%  
301 0.8% 62%  
302 0.8% 61%  
303 2% 60%  
304 0.4% 58% Median
305 3% 57%  
306 2% 54%  
307 2% 52%  
308 8% 50%  
309 0.7% 42%  
310 3% 41%  
311 0.3% 38%  
312 0.4% 38%  
313 0.2% 37%  
314 4% 37%  
315 6% 33%  
316 2% 27%  
317 5% 26%  
318 1.5% 20%  
319 2% 19%  
320 0.2% 17%  
321 0.5% 17%  
322 2% 17%  
323 0.9% 14%  
324 2% 14%  
325 0.6% 11%  
326 0.5% 11% Majority
327 0.5% 10%  
328 2% 10%  
329 0.6% 8%  
330 2% 8%  
331 0.8% 6%  
332 0.4% 5%  
333 0.5% 5%  
334 0.5% 4%  
335 0.4% 4%  
336 0.8% 3%  
337 0.2% 3%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.6% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.2% 99.9%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.4%  
261 0.1% 99.4%  
262 0% 99.3%  
263 0.2% 99.3%  
264 1.2% 99.1%  
265 0.6% 98%  
266 0.6% 97%  
267 1.3% 97%  
268 2% 95%  
269 1.1% 94%  
270 0.5% 93%  
271 0.6% 92%  
272 0% 92%  
273 0.3% 92%  
274 0.4% 91%  
275 1.0% 91%  
276 0.3% 90%  
277 0.8% 90%  
278 2% 89% Last Result
279 0.1% 86%  
280 0.8% 86%  
281 1.0% 86%  
282 5% 85%  
283 3% 80%  
284 0.1% 76%  
285 0.3% 76%  
286 2% 76%  
287 1.4% 74%  
288 0.3% 73%  
289 0.1% 72%  
290 3% 72%  
291 11% 69%  
292 3% 58%  
293 2% 55%  
294 1.0% 53%  
295 0.5% 52%  
296 1.2% 51%  
297 0.3% 50% Median
298 0.3% 50%  
299 0.2% 50%  
300 0.1% 49%  
301 6% 49%  
302 3% 43%  
303 0.5% 40%  
304 0.5% 40%  
305 2% 39%  
306 0.6% 37%  
307 0.2% 36%  
308 0.5% 36%  
309 5% 36%  
310 0.7% 31%  
311 3% 30%  
312 0.2% 27%  
313 5% 27%  
314 2% 22%  
315 0.2% 21%  
316 0.9% 20%  
317 2% 20%  
318 5% 18%  
319 0.4% 13%  
320 0.9% 13%  
321 2% 12%  
322 0.2% 10%  
323 2% 10%  
324 0.6% 8%  
325 1.4% 7%  
326 0.4% 6% Majority
327 0.2% 6%  
328 0.6% 5%  
329 0.3% 5%  
330 0.4% 4%  
331 0.2% 4%  
332 0.2% 4%  
333 0.8% 4%  
334 0.2% 3%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0% 2%  
338 0% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0% 1.4%  
342 0.1% 1.4%  
343 0% 1.3%  
344 0.1% 1.3%  
345 0.1% 1.2%  
346 0.6% 1.1%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.6%  
260 0.5% 99.5%  
261 0.1% 99.0%  
262 0.2% 98.9%  
263 0.7% 98.8%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.2% 97%  
267 0.8% 97%  
268 0.2% 96%  
269 0.9% 96%  
270 0.1% 95%  
271 0.6% 95%  
272 0.4% 94%  
273 0.3% 94%  
274 2% 94%  
275 0.7% 92%  
276 0.4% 92%  
277 1.0% 91%  
278 2% 90%  
279 1.0% 88%  
280 0.1% 87%  
281 2% 87%  
282 0.3% 85%  
283 1.2% 85%  
284 3% 83%  
285 0.4% 81%  
286 4% 80%  
287 0.9% 77%  
288 6% 76%  
289 3% 69%  
290 0.4% 66%  
291 2% 66%  
292 0.4% 64%  
293 4% 64%  
294 2% 60%  
295 3% 58%  
296 5% 55% Median
297 2% 50%  
298 2% 48%  
299 2% 46%  
300 2% 43%  
301 0.3% 41%  
302 2% 41%  
303 0.9% 40%  
304 0.5% 39%  
305 3% 38%  
306 0.9% 35%  
307 2% 34%  
308 1.0% 33%  
309 0.9% 32%  
310 0.5% 31%  
311 2% 30%  
312 0.9% 28%  
313 0.9% 28%  
314 3% 27%  
315 0.5% 23%  
316 0.2% 23%  
317 4% 23%  
318 0.3% 19%  
319 0.6% 18%  
320 0.5% 18%  
321 6% 17% Last Result
322 0.5% 11%  
323 0.3% 10%  
324 2% 10%  
325 2% 8%  
326 1.0% 6% Majority
327 0.3% 5%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0.4% 5%  
330 1.0% 4%  
331 1.0% 3%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0% 1.1%  
336 0.3% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.3% 99.9%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0% 99.4%  
255 0% 99.4%  
256 0.1% 99.4%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0.1% 99.1%  
259 1.4% 99.0%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.9% 97%  
262 1.4% 96%  
263 2% 95%  
264 0.7% 93%  
265 0.3% 93%  
266 0.6% 92%  
267 0.1% 92%  
268 0.3% 92%  
269 1.1% 91%  
270 3% 90%  
271 0.3% 87%  
272 0.3% 87%  
273 0.6% 87%  
274 0.1% 86% Last Result
275 1.2% 86%  
276 0.5% 85%  
277 5% 85%  
278 3% 80%  
279 0.6% 76%  
280 0.5% 76%  
281 2% 75%  
282 1.4% 74%  
283 0.4% 72%  
284 1.1% 72%  
285 3% 71%  
286 12% 68%  
287 0.4% 57%  
288 1.4% 56%  
289 0.9% 55%  
290 3% 54%  
291 1.3% 51%  
292 0.4% 50% Median
293 0.2% 50%  
294 0.2% 50%  
295 0.1% 49%  
296 6% 49%  
297 2% 43%  
298 1.0% 41%  
299 0.3% 40%  
300 2% 39%  
301 1.4% 37%  
302 0.1% 36%  
303 0.6% 35%  
304 4% 35%  
305 0.6% 31%  
306 3% 30%  
307 0.3% 27%  
308 5% 27%  
309 1.5% 22%  
310 0.4% 20%  
311 0.6% 20%  
312 0.9% 19%  
313 5% 18%  
314 0.4% 13%  
315 0.7% 13%  
316 2% 12%  
317 1.3% 10%  
318 0.9% 9%  
319 0.5% 8%  
320 2% 7%  
321 0.4% 6%  
322 0.1% 5%  
323 0.6% 5%  
324 0.4% 5%  
325 0.4% 4%  
326 0.1% 4% Majority
327 0.9% 4%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.1% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0% 2%  
333 0% 2%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.5%  
337 0.1% 1.3%  
338 0% 1.3%  
339 0.1% 1.2%  
340 0.1% 1.2%  
341 0.6% 1.1%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.5% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.0%  
257 0.2% 98.9%  
258 0.7% 98.8%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 0.2% 97%  
262 1.0% 97%  
263 0.2% 96%  
264 0.8% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 0.5% 94%  
268 0.1% 94%  
269 2% 94%  
270 0.7% 92%  
271 1.0% 91%  
272 0.4% 90%  
273 3% 90%  
274 1.1% 88%  
275 0.2% 86%  
276 1.2% 86%  
277 0.6% 85%  
278 2% 85%  
279 2% 82%  
280 0.4% 80%  
281 4% 80%  
282 0.8% 76%  
283 6% 76%  
284 3% 69%  
285 0.5% 66%  
286 2% 66%  
287 0.4% 64%  
288 4% 63%  
289 2% 60%  
290 2% 57%  
291 6% 56% Median
292 2% 49%  
293 2% 48%  
294 0.5% 46%  
295 2% 45%  
296 2% 43%  
297 2% 41%  
298 0.8% 39%  
299 0.8% 38%  
300 3% 38%  
301 1.1% 35%  
302 2% 34%  
303 2% 32%  
304 0.7% 30%  
305 0.4% 29%  
306 0.1% 29%  
307 0.7% 29%  
308 1.2% 28%  
309 4% 27%  
310 0.6% 23%  
311 0.3% 23%  
312 4% 22%  
313 3% 18%  
314 0.6% 16%  
315 0.5% 15%  
316 4% 14%  
317 0.3% 11% Last Result
318 0.2% 10%  
319 2% 10%  
320 2% 8%  
321 1.1% 6%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 0.6% 5%  
324 0.4% 5%  
325 1.1% 4%  
326 0.9% 3% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.6% 1.5%  
330 0% 0.9%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0.1% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.8%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.6%  
238 0% 99.4%  
239 0% 99.3%  
240 0.9% 99.3%  
241 3% 98%  
242 1.3% 96%  
243 1.2% 94%  
244 0.1% 93%  
245 0.3% 93%  
246 1.3% 93%  
247 0% 91%  
248 0.2% 91%  
249 0.4% 91%  
250 0.5% 91%  
251 0.6% 90%  
252 0.7% 90%  
253 2% 89%  
254 0.8% 87%  
255 1.2% 86%  
256 3% 85%  
257 4% 82%  
258 0.4% 78%  
259 2% 78%  
260 1.3% 76%  
261 0.2% 75%  
262 0.3% 74%  
263 2% 74%  
264 7% 72%  
265 12% 65%  
266 0.8% 53% Last Result
267 0.7% 53%  
268 0.1% 52%  
269 1.2% 52%  
270 0.4% 50% Median
271 0.2% 50%  
272 0.1% 50%  
273 0.6% 50%  
274 6% 49%  
275 2% 43%  
276 0.5% 41%  
277 0.7% 40%  
278 0.4% 40%  
279 0.3% 39%  
280 0.2% 39%  
281 0.2% 39%  
282 5% 39%  
283 3% 34%  
284 2% 31%  
285 0.1% 29%  
286 3% 29%  
287 3% 26%  
288 0.4% 23%  
289 2% 22%  
290 0.6% 20%  
291 6% 20%  
292 0.3% 14%  
293 1.0% 14%  
294 1.1% 12%  
295 2% 11%  
296 2% 9%  
297 0.3% 8%  
298 0.3% 7%  
299 0.4% 7%  
300 1.0% 7%  
301 0.7% 6%  
302 0.5% 5%  
303 0.5% 4%  
304 0.1% 4%  
305 0.2% 4%  
306 0.2% 4%  
307 0% 3%  
308 1.0% 3%  
309 0% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.1% 1.3%  
316 0% 1.2%  
317 0% 1.2%  
318 0.1% 1.2%  
319 0.7% 1.1%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.2% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0.1% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.7%  
232 0.2% 99.5%  
233 0.1% 99.3%  
234 0.8% 99.3%  
235 0.7% 98%  
236 3% 98%  
237 0.7% 95%  
238 1.2% 94%  
239 0.1% 93%  
240 0.3% 93%  
241 1.1% 93%  
242 0.1% 92%  
243 0.3% 91%  
244 1.1% 91%  
245 2% 90%  
246 0.6% 88%  
247 0.3% 87%  
248 0.3% 87%  
249 0.6% 87%  
250 1.5% 86%  
251 3% 85%  
252 5% 82%  
253 0.2% 77%  
254 1.4% 77%  
255 1.1% 76%  
256 0.4% 75%  
257 2% 74%  
258 2% 73%  
259 7% 71%  
260 7% 64%  
261 2% 57%  
262 3% 54% Last Result
263 0.1% 51%  
264 1.3% 51%  
265 0.2% 50% Median
266 0.1% 50%  
267 0.2% 50%  
268 0.1% 50%  
269 7% 50%  
270 2% 43%  
271 0.5% 41%  
272 0.2% 40%  
273 0.5% 40%  
274 1.0% 39%  
275 0.3% 38%  
276 0.2% 38%  
277 4% 38%  
278 3% 34%  
279 2% 31%  
280 0.2% 29%  
281 3% 29%  
282 3% 25%  
283 0.3% 22%  
284 2% 22%  
285 0.5% 20%  
286 6% 20%  
287 0.2% 14%  
288 0.9% 13%  
289 2% 13%  
290 1.3% 11%  
291 2% 9%  
292 0.3% 8%  
293 0.3% 7%  
294 0.2% 7%  
295 1.1% 7%  
296 0.8% 6%  
297 0.4% 5%  
298 0.6% 4%  
299 0.1% 4%  
300 0.2% 4%  
301 0.1% 4%  
302 0.8% 3%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.3%  
311 0% 1.2%  
312 0.1% 1.2%  
313 0% 1.1%  
314 0.7% 1.1%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations