Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 16–18 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 39.9% 38.5–41.3% 38.1–41.7% 37.8–42.0% 37.1–42.7%
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.9% 37.5–40.3% 37.1–40.7% 36.8–41.0% 36.2–41.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 291 267–309 260–317 256–321 243–331
Conservative Party 317 286 269–306 263–312 262–317 254–329
Liberal Democrats 12 21 19–24 17–26 16–27 15–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 32 15–45 9–49 8–50 4–51
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–4

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.2% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.4%  
246 0% 99.4%  
247 0% 99.3%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0.2% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 98.8%  
252 0.1% 98.7%  
253 0.3% 98.6%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0% 98%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 1.2% 96%  
260 0.1% 95%  
261 2% 95%  
262 1.4% 93% Last Result
263 0% 92%  
264 0.9% 92%  
265 0.3% 91%  
266 0.2% 90%  
267 3% 90%  
268 0.4% 87%  
269 0.5% 87%  
270 0.4% 87%  
271 0.3% 86%  
272 1.2% 86%  
273 6% 85%  
274 0.7% 78%  
275 0.4% 77%  
276 0.1% 77%  
277 0.3% 77%  
278 0.9% 77%  
279 0.5% 76%  
280 0.5% 75%  
281 3% 75%  
282 7% 72%  
283 0.8% 65%  
284 9% 64%  
285 0.7% 56%  
286 0.1% 55%  
287 0.4% 55%  
288 0.6% 55%  
289 0.1% 54%  
290 2% 54%  
291 12% 52% Median
292 1.2% 40%  
293 0.5% 39%  
294 7% 38%  
295 0.4% 31%  
296 0.4% 31%  
297 0.4% 30%  
298 0.9% 30%  
299 2% 29%  
300 5% 28%  
301 0.1% 22%  
302 4% 22%  
303 0.3% 19%  
304 0.3% 18%  
305 4% 18%  
306 3% 14%  
307 0.4% 11%  
308 0.2% 11%  
309 0.7% 10%  
310 0.1% 10%  
311 0% 10%  
312 2% 10%  
313 0.3% 8%  
314 0.5% 8%  
315 0.1% 7%  
316 0.6% 7%  
317 3% 6%  
318 0.1% 4%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0% 4%  
321 2% 4%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.2%  
325 0.1% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.0% Majority
327 0.2% 1.0%  
328 0% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.3% 99.5%  
255 0% 99.3%  
256 0.5% 99.2%  
257 0% 98.7%  
258 0.1% 98.7%  
259 0.4% 98.6%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 4% 97%  
264 0.6% 94%  
265 0.1% 93%  
266 0.1% 93%  
267 0.5% 93%  
268 2% 92%  
269 0.7% 91%  
270 0.6% 90%  
271 6% 89%  
272 0.3% 84%  
273 0.4% 83%  
274 4% 83%  
275 3% 79%  
276 0.6% 77%  
277 3% 76%  
278 0.7% 73%  
279 0.9% 72%  
280 3% 72%  
281 0.6% 68%  
282 0.3% 68%  
283 6% 68%  
284 2% 61%  
285 0.1% 60%  
286 12% 60% Median
287 4% 48%  
288 0.2% 44%  
289 0.7% 43%  
290 1.0% 43%  
291 1.2% 42%  
292 0.7% 41%  
293 0.5% 40%  
294 0.7% 39%  
295 13% 39%  
296 0.3% 25%  
297 0.7% 25%  
298 0.1% 24%  
299 0.1% 24%  
300 2% 24%  
301 6% 22%  
302 0.9% 17%  
303 1.5% 16%  
304 0.8% 14%  
305 3% 13%  
306 0.7% 10%  
307 0.9% 10%  
308 0.5% 9%  
309 0.2% 8%  
310 0.9% 8%  
311 2% 7%  
312 0.1% 5%  
313 0.1% 5%  
314 0.9% 5%  
315 0.5% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 1.3% 3% Last Result
318 0% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.4%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0% 1.1%  
325 0% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.1% Majority
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 0.9%  
329 0.4% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.3% 99.7%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 5% 97%  
18 1.4% 93%  
19 5% 91%  
20 28% 86%  
21 43% 58% Median
22 2% 14%  
23 0.7% 13%  
24 2% 12%  
25 1.3% 10%  
26 6% 8%  
27 0.3% 3%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.8%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 0.4% 99.6%  
5 0.2% 99.2%  
6 0.2% 99.0%  
7 0.9% 98.8%  
8 0.7% 98%  
9 3% 97%  
10 0% 95%  
11 0.1% 94%  
12 0.2% 94%  
13 0.8% 94%  
14 0% 93%  
15 6% 93%  
16 0.4% 87%  
17 2% 87%  
18 0% 85%  
19 0.3% 85%  
20 0.3% 85%  
21 4% 84%  
22 0.2% 80%  
23 0.7% 80%  
24 2% 79%  
25 0.3% 77%  
26 3% 77%  
27 0.8% 74%  
28 8% 73%  
29 6% 65%  
30 5% 59%  
31 0% 54%  
32 12% 54% Median
33 0.1% 42%  
34 1.0% 42%  
35 1.3% 41% Last Result
36 0.1% 40%  
37 0.2% 40%  
38 5% 40%  
39 1.5% 35%  
40 0.7% 33%  
41 7% 33%  
42 0.7% 26%  
43 4% 25%  
44 9% 22%  
45 5% 13%  
46 0.7% 8%  
47 0.1% 8%  
48 0.7% 7%  
49 4% 7%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 1.4% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.4%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 21% 41%  
2 16% 21%  
3 3% 5%  
4 1.2% 1.4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 344 87% 324–361 318–367 313–368 301–376
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 344 85% 323–360 316–366 313–368 301–376
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 318 40% 299–343 292–349 288–354 278–367
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 318 34% 298–343 291–349 288–354 277–366
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 323 39% 300–339 297–346 294–346 280–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 323 39% 300–338 296–345 293–345 280–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 312 18% 287–331 281–338 276–342 263–352
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 312 19% 287–332 281–339 276–342 264–353
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 307 12% 291–330 284–333 284–336 276–350
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 291 1.0% 267–310 261–317 257–321 243–331
Labour Party 262 291 1.0% 267–309 260–317 256–321 243–331
Conservative Party 317 286 1.1% 269–306 263–312 262–317 254–329
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 286 1.1% 270–307 264–314 262–317 254–329

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.4% 99.7%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0.2% 99.1%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0% 98.9%  
306 0% 98.9%  
307 0.1% 98.9%  
308 0.2% 98.8%  
309 0.2% 98.6%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0% 98%  
313 1.3% 98% Last Result
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.5% 96%  
316 0.9% 96%  
317 0.1% 95%  
318 0.1% 95%  
319 2% 95%  
320 0.9% 93%  
321 0.2% 92%  
322 0.5% 92%  
323 0.9% 91%  
324 0.7% 90%  
325 3% 90%  
326 0.8% 87% Majority
327 1.5% 86%  
328 0.9% 84%  
329 6% 83%  
330 2% 78%  
331 0.1% 76%  
332 0.1% 76%  
333 0.7% 76%  
334 0.3% 75%  
335 13% 75%  
336 0.7% 61%  
337 0.5% 61%  
338 0.7% 60%  
339 1.2% 59%  
340 1.0% 58%  
341 0.7% 57%  
342 0.2% 57%  
343 4% 56%  
344 12% 52% Median
345 0.1% 40%  
346 2% 40%  
347 6% 39%  
348 0.3% 32%  
349 0.6% 32%  
350 3% 32%  
351 0.9% 28%  
352 0.7% 28%  
353 3% 27%  
354 0.6% 24%  
355 3% 23%  
356 4% 21%  
357 0.3% 17%  
358 0.4% 17%  
359 6% 16%  
360 0.6% 11%  
361 0.7% 10%  
362 2% 9%  
363 0.5% 8%  
364 0.1% 7%  
365 0.1% 7%  
366 0.6% 7%  
367 4% 6%  
368 0.4% 3%  
369 0.5% 2%  
370 0.2% 2%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.1% 1.4%  
373 0% 1.3%  
374 0.5% 1.3%  
375 0% 0.8%  
376 0.3% 0.7%  
377 0.1% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 0.4% 99.5%  
302 0.1% 99.1%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0.1% 98.7%  
307 0.1% 98.6%  
308 0.1% 98.6%  
309 0.2% 98% Last Result
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0% 98%  
313 1.4% 98%  
314 0.3% 96%  
315 0.4% 96%  
316 0.8% 96%  
317 0.1% 95%  
318 0.3% 95%  
319 2% 95%  
320 0.9% 93%  
321 0.4% 92%  
322 0.5% 91%  
323 1.1% 91%  
324 0.3% 90%  
325 4% 89%  
326 1.1% 85% Majority
327 3% 84%  
328 0.7% 82%  
329 5% 81%  
330 0.3% 76%  
331 0.2% 76%  
332 0.7% 76%  
333 5% 75%  
334 5% 70%  
335 5% 65%  
336 0.1% 60%  
337 1.3% 60%  
338 1.3% 59%  
339 0.3% 58%  
340 0.8% 57%  
341 0.3% 57%  
342 0.9% 56%  
343 5% 55%  
344 10% 50% Median
345 0.3% 40%  
346 2% 40%  
347 6% 38%  
348 0.1% 31%  
349 0.3% 31%  
350 4% 31%  
351 0.7% 27%  
352 0.6% 27%  
353 3% 26%  
354 4% 24%  
355 3% 20%  
356 0.6% 17%  
357 0.3% 16%  
358 3% 16%  
359 2% 13%  
360 0.7% 10%  
361 2% 10%  
362 0.6% 8%  
363 0.1% 7%  
364 0.2% 7%  
365 0.2% 7%  
366 4% 7%  
367 0.1% 3%  
368 0.4% 3%  
369 0.6% 2%  
370 0.2% 2%  
371 0.1% 1.4%  
372 0.1% 1.3%  
373 0.4% 1.2%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.2% 0.5%  
377 0% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0% 99.2%  
282 0% 99.2%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.3% 99.1%  
285 0% 98.7%  
286 0.1% 98.7%  
287 0.4% 98.6%  
288 2% 98%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 0.3% 96%  
291 0.5% 96%  
292 3% 95%  
293 0.4% 93%  
294 0.5% 92%  
295 0.2% 92%  
296 0.2% 92%  
297 1.2% 91%  
298 0.3% 90%  
299 0.7% 90%  
300 0.5% 89%  
301 0.2% 89%  
302 0.6% 89%  
303 3% 88%  
304 4% 85%  
305 0.2% 82%  
306 0.3% 81%  
307 0.4% 81%  
308 4% 81%  
309 4% 77%  
310 2% 73%  
311 0.5% 71%  
312 0.4% 71%  
313 1.4% 70%  
314 1.3% 69%  
315 3% 67%  
316 4% 64%  
317 0.7% 60%  
318 10% 59% Median
319 2% 49%  
320 0.7% 47%  
321 0.5% 47%  
322 0.1% 46%  
323 0.1% 46%  
324 0.6% 46%  
325 5% 45%  
326 5% 40% Majority
327 7% 35%  
328 0.5% 28%  
329 3% 28%  
330 0.8% 25%  
331 1.4% 24%  
332 0.7% 23%  
333 0.9% 22%  
334 0.1% 21%  
335 0.2% 21%  
336 0.3% 21%  
337 5% 20%  
338 1.4% 16%  
339 0.1% 14%  
340 0.3% 14%  
341 1.5% 14%  
342 1.0% 12%  
343 2% 11%  
344 0.4% 9%  
345 0% 9%  
346 0.3% 9%  
347 1.4% 9%  
348 0.4% 7%  
349 3% 7%  
350 0.5% 4%  
351 0.9% 4%  
352 0.1% 3%  
353 0.1% 3%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.2% 2% Last Result
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.1%  
360 0.1% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0% 0.5%  
366 0% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.3% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.2% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.2%  
282 0% 99.1%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 98.9%  
285 0.3% 98.7%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 2% 98%  
289 0.5% 96%  
290 0.1% 96%  
291 0.6% 95%  
292 3% 95%  
293 0.1% 92%  
294 0.2% 92%  
295 0.2% 92%  
296 1.2% 92%  
297 0.3% 90%  
298 0.2% 90%  
299 0.6% 90%  
300 0.6% 89%  
301 0.7% 89%  
302 4% 88%  
303 3% 84%  
304 0.1% 81%  
305 0.3% 81%  
306 0.3% 81%  
307 0.4% 81%  
308 7% 80%  
309 1.3% 73%  
310 0.9% 72%  
311 0.6% 71%  
312 0.2% 70%  
313 2% 70%  
314 5% 68%  
315 0.3% 64%  
316 4% 63%  
317 0.4% 59%  
318 12% 59% Median
319 0.5% 47%  
320 0.8% 47%  
321 0.1% 46%  
322 0.1% 46%  
323 0.4% 46%  
324 5% 45%  
325 6% 40%  
326 0.5% 34% Majority
327 6% 34%  
328 0.3% 28%  
329 4% 27%  
330 1.2% 24%  
331 0.5% 22%  
332 0.8% 22%  
333 0.3% 21%  
334 0.3% 21%  
335 0.4% 20%  
336 5% 20%  
337 0.3% 15%  
338 1.2% 15%  
339 0.1% 14%  
340 0.2% 14%  
341 2% 13%  
342 0.7% 12%  
343 2% 11%  
344 0.3% 9%  
345 0.7% 9%  
346 0.3% 8%  
347 0.7% 8%  
348 1.2% 7%  
349 2% 6%  
350 0.3% 4%  
351 1.0% 4%  
352 0% 3% Last Result
353 0.1% 3%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 0.4% 2%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.1% 1.1%  
358 0.1% 1.1%  
359 0% 1.0%  
360 0.2% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.7%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0% 0.5%  
365 0% 0.5%  
366 0% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.3% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.3% 99.7%  
281 0.2% 99.4%  
282 0% 99.3%  
283 0.3% 99.2%  
284 0.2% 98.9%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0.1% 98.6%  
287 0.3% 98.5%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0% 98%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 2% 98%  
295 0.3% 96%  
296 0.4% 95%  
297 0.2% 95%  
298 0.5% 95%  
299 3% 94%  
300 2% 91%  
301 1.1% 90% Last Result
302 0.6% 89%  
303 0.4% 88%  
304 0.2% 88%  
305 2% 88%  
306 1.3% 85%  
307 0.5% 84%  
308 1.4% 84%  
309 5% 82%  
310 1.1% 77%  
311 0.1% 76%  
312 0.2% 76%  
313 0.4% 76%  
314 6% 75%  
315 9% 70%  
316 0.6% 61%  
317 0.9% 60%  
318 0.5% 59%  
319 0% 59%  
320 0.3% 59%  
321 2% 58%  
322 0.6% 57%  
323 14% 56% Median
324 2% 42%  
325 0.4% 40%  
326 6% 39% Majority
327 0.3% 33%  
328 0.5% 33%  
329 2% 32%  
330 3% 31%  
331 0.6% 28%  
332 2% 28%  
333 0.6% 25%  
334 3% 25%  
335 5% 21%  
336 0.4% 17%  
337 0.6% 16%  
338 5% 16%  
339 0.5% 10%  
340 0.7% 10%  
341 2% 9%  
342 0.6% 7%  
343 0.2% 7%  
344 0.3% 6%  
345 0.3% 6%  
346 4% 6%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.5%  
350 0.2% 1.3%  
351 0.3% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0.3% 0.7%  
355 0.2% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0.3% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.2%  
282 0% 99.1%  
283 0.3% 99.1%  
284 0.1% 98.7%  
285 0% 98.6%  
286 0.1% 98.5%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 2% 97%  
295 0.2% 95%  
296 0.2% 95%  
297 0.2% 95% Last Result
298 0.6% 95%  
299 4% 94%  
300 1.4% 90%  
301 0.6% 89%  
302 0.3% 88%  
303 0.3% 88%  
304 0.5% 87%  
305 2% 87%  
306 2% 85%  
307 1.3% 83%  
308 2% 82%  
309 4% 80%  
310 0.1% 76%  
311 0.2% 76%  
312 0.1% 75%  
313 6% 75%  
314 10% 70%  
315 0.4% 60%  
316 0.1% 60%  
317 0.7% 60%  
318 0.8% 59%  
319 0.2% 58%  
320 2% 58%  
321 0.8% 56%  
322 1.2% 56%  
323 15% 54% Median
324 0.3% 39%  
325 0.4% 39%  
326 6% 39% Majority
327 0.3% 32%  
328 0.1% 32%  
329 2% 32%  
330 3% 30%  
331 0.5% 28%  
332 3% 27%  
333 4% 25%  
334 3% 21%  
335 1.3% 17%  
336 0.5% 16%  
337 3% 15%  
338 2% 12%  
339 0.4% 10%  
340 2% 9%  
341 0.9% 8%  
342 0.1% 7%  
343 0.3% 6%  
344 0.2% 6%  
345 4% 6%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.5% 1.3%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0% 0.6%  
353 0.2% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0.1% 100%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.3% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.5%  
263 0% 99.5%  
264 0% 99.5%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.5% 98.9%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.2% 98% Last Result
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0.1% 97%  
279 0.9% 97%  
280 0.5% 96%  
281 3% 96%  
282 0.4% 93%  
283 1.4% 93%  
284 0.3% 91%  
285 0% 91%  
286 0.4% 91%  
287 2% 91%  
288 1.0% 89%  
289 1.5% 88%  
290 0.3% 86%  
291 0.1% 86%  
292 1.4% 86%  
293 5% 84%  
294 0.3% 80%  
295 0.2% 79%  
296 0.1% 79%  
297 0.9% 79%  
298 0.7% 78%  
299 1.4% 77%  
300 0.8% 76%  
301 3% 75%  
302 0.5% 72%  
303 7% 72%  
304 5% 65%  
305 5% 60%  
306 0.6% 55%  
307 0.1% 54%  
308 0.1% 54%  
309 0.5% 54%  
310 0.7% 53%  
311 2% 53%  
312 10% 51% Median
313 0.7% 41%  
314 4% 40%  
315 3% 36%  
316 1.3% 33%  
317 1.4% 31%  
318 0.4% 30%  
319 0.5% 29%  
320 2% 29%  
321 4% 27%  
322 4% 23%  
323 0.4% 19%  
324 0.3% 19%  
325 0.2% 19%  
326 4% 18% Majority
327 3% 15%  
328 0.6% 12%  
329 0.2% 11%  
330 0.5% 11%  
331 0.7% 11%  
332 0.3% 10%  
333 1.2% 10%  
334 0.2% 8%  
335 0.2% 8%  
336 0.5% 8%  
337 0.4% 8%  
338 3% 7%  
339 0.5% 5%  
340 0.3% 4%  
341 0.2% 4%  
342 2% 4%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.4%  
345 0% 1.3%  
346 0.3% 1.3%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.8%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.3% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0% 99.5%  
264 0% 99.5%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0.1% 99.3%  
270 0.2% 99.3%  
271 0% 99.0%  
272 0.1% 99.0%  
273 0.1% 98.9%  
274 0.4% 98.9%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0% 97% Last Result
279 1.0% 97%  
280 0.3% 96%  
281 2% 96%  
282 1.2% 94%  
283 0.7% 93%  
284 0.3% 92%  
285 0.7% 92%  
286 0.3% 91%  
287 2% 91%  
288 0.7% 89%  
289 2% 88%  
290 0.2% 87%  
291 0.1% 86%  
292 1.2% 86%  
293 0.3% 85%  
294 5% 85%  
295 0.4% 80%  
296 0.3% 80%  
297 0.3% 79%  
298 0.8% 79%  
299 0.5% 78%  
300 1.2% 78%  
301 4% 76%  
302 0.3% 73%  
303 6% 72%  
304 0.5% 66%  
305 6% 66%  
306 5% 60%  
307 0.4% 55%  
308 0.1% 54%  
309 0.1% 54%  
310 0.8% 54%  
311 0.5% 53%  
312 12% 53% Median
313 0.4% 41%  
314 4% 41%  
315 0.3% 37%  
316 5% 36%  
317 2% 32%  
318 0.2% 30%  
319 0.6% 30%  
320 0.9% 29%  
321 1.3% 28%  
322 7% 27%  
323 0.4% 20%  
324 0.3% 19%  
325 0.3% 19%  
326 0.1% 19% Majority
327 3% 19%  
328 4% 16%  
329 0.6% 12%  
330 0.6% 11%  
331 0.6% 11%  
332 0.2% 10%  
333 0.4% 10%  
334 1.2% 10%  
335 0.2% 8%  
336 0.2% 8%  
337 0.1% 8%  
338 3% 8%  
339 0.6% 5%  
340 0.1% 5%  
341 0.5% 4%  
342 2% 4%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.2% 1.3%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.2% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0.3% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.3%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.0%  
281 0.2% 98.7%  
282 0.4% 98.5%  
283 0% 98%  
284 4% 98%  
285 0.3% 94%  
286 0.3% 94%  
287 0.2% 94%  
288 0.6% 93%  
289 2% 93%  
290 0.7% 91%  
291 0.5% 90%  
292 5% 90%  
293 0.5% 84%  
294 0.4% 84%  
295 5% 83%  
296 3% 79%  
297 0.6% 75%  
298 2% 75%  
299 0.6% 72%  
300 3% 72%  
301 2% 69%  
302 0.5% 68%  
303 0.3% 67%  
304 6% 67%  
305 0.4% 61%  
306 2% 60%  
307 14% 58% Median
308 0.6% 44%  
309 2% 43%  
310 0.3% 42%  
311 0% 41%  
312 0.5% 41%  
313 0.9% 41%  
314 0.6% 40%  
315 9% 39%  
316 6% 30%  
317 0.4% 25%  
318 0.2% 24%  
319 0.1% 24%  
320 1.1% 24%  
321 5% 23%  
322 1.4% 18%  
323 0.5% 16%  
324 1.3% 16%  
325 2% 15%  
326 0.2% 12% Majority
327 0.4% 12%  
328 0.6% 12%  
329 1.1% 11% Last Result
330 2% 10%  
331 3% 9%  
332 0.5% 6%  
333 0.2% 5%  
334 0.4% 5%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 2% 4%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0% 2%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.5%  
345 0.1% 1.4%  
346 0.2% 1.3%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.7%  
350 0.3% 0.6%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.2% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.2% 99.7%  
244 0% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0.1% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0% 99.2%  
250 0.1% 99.2%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 99.0%  
253 0% 98.7%  
254 0.2% 98.7%  
255 0.4% 98.5%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.8% 98%  
258 0.5% 97%  
259 1.2% 96%  
260 0.1% 95%  
261 2% 95%  
262 0.2% 93%  
263 1.3% 93%  
264 0.3% 92%  
265 0.1% 92%  
266 0.8% 91% Last Result
267 3% 91%  
268 0.6% 88%  
269 0.4% 87%  
270 0.2% 87%  
271 0.5% 87%  
272 1.1% 86%  
273 1.0% 85%  
274 5% 84%  
275 1.5% 79%  
276 0.2% 78%  
277 0.3% 77%  
278 0.2% 77%  
279 0.6% 77%  
280 1.0% 76%  
281 2% 75%  
282 6% 73%  
283 0.5% 66%  
284 5% 66%  
285 0.2% 60%  
286 5% 60%  
287 0.2% 55%  
288 0.4% 55%  
289 0.3% 54%  
290 1.3% 54%  
291 11% 53% Median
292 2% 42%  
293 0.8% 40%  
294 5% 39%  
295 4% 35%  
296 0.2% 31%  
297 0.3% 31%  
298 0.4% 30%  
299 1.0% 30%  
300 2% 29%  
301 4% 27%  
302 4% 23%  
303 0.1% 19%  
304 0.3% 19%  
305 1.1% 18%  
306 3% 17%  
307 4% 15%  
308 0.5% 11%  
309 0.4% 11%  
310 0.3% 10%  
311 0.3% 10%  
312 0.1% 10%  
313 1.4% 10%  
314 0.5% 8%  
315 0.5% 8%  
316 0.2% 7%  
317 2% 7%  
318 0.2% 4%  
319 0.5% 4%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 2% 4%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.4% 1.5%  
326 0.1% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 1.0%  
328 0.1% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.2% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.6%  
244 0% 99.5%  
245 0.1% 99.4%  
246 0% 99.4%  
247 0% 99.3%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0.2% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 98.8%  
252 0.1% 98.7%  
253 0.3% 98.6%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0% 98%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 1.2% 96%  
260 0.1% 95%  
261 2% 95%  
262 1.4% 93% Last Result
263 0% 92%  
264 0.9% 92%  
265 0.3% 91%  
266 0.2% 90%  
267 3% 90%  
268 0.4% 87%  
269 0.5% 87%  
270 0.4% 87%  
271 0.3% 86%  
272 1.2% 86%  
273 6% 85%  
274 0.7% 78%  
275 0.4% 77%  
276 0.1% 77%  
277 0.3% 77%  
278 0.9% 77%  
279 0.5% 76%  
280 0.5% 75%  
281 3% 75%  
282 7% 72%  
283 0.8% 65%  
284 9% 64%  
285 0.7% 56%  
286 0.1% 55%  
287 0.4% 55%  
288 0.6% 55%  
289 0.1% 54%  
290 2% 54%  
291 12% 52% Median
292 1.2% 40%  
293 0.5% 39%  
294 7% 38%  
295 0.4% 31%  
296 0.4% 31%  
297 0.4% 30%  
298 0.9% 30%  
299 2% 29%  
300 5% 28%  
301 0.1% 22%  
302 4% 22%  
303 0.3% 19%  
304 0.3% 18%  
305 4% 18%  
306 3% 14%  
307 0.4% 11%  
308 0.2% 11%  
309 0.7% 10%  
310 0.1% 10%  
311 0% 10%  
312 2% 10%  
313 0.3% 8%  
314 0.5% 8%  
315 0.1% 7%  
316 0.6% 7%  
317 3% 6%  
318 0.1% 4%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0% 4%  
321 2% 4%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.2%  
325 0.1% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.0% Majority
327 0.2% 1.0%  
328 0% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.3% 99.5%  
255 0% 99.3%  
256 0.5% 99.2%  
257 0% 98.7%  
258 0.1% 98.7%  
259 0.4% 98.6%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 4% 97%  
264 0.6% 94%  
265 0.1% 93%  
266 0.1% 93%  
267 0.5% 93%  
268 2% 92%  
269 0.7% 91%  
270 0.6% 90%  
271 6% 89%  
272 0.3% 84%  
273 0.4% 83%  
274 4% 83%  
275 3% 79%  
276 0.6% 77%  
277 3% 76%  
278 0.7% 73%  
279 0.9% 72%  
280 3% 72%  
281 0.6% 68%  
282 0.3% 68%  
283 6% 68%  
284 2% 61%  
285 0.1% 60%  
286 12% 60% Median
287 4% 48%  
288 0.2% 44%  
289 0.7% 43%  
290 1.0% 43%  
291 1.2% 42%  
292 0.7% 41%  
293 0.5% 40%  
294 0.7% 39%  
295 13% 39%  
296 0.3% 25%  
297 0.7% 25%  
298 0.1% 24%  
299 0.1% 24%  
300 2% 24%  
301 6% 22%  
302 0.9% 17%  
303 1.5% 16%  
304 0.8% 14%  
305 3% 13%  
306 0.7% 10%  
307 0.9% 10%  
308 0.5% 9%  
309 0.2% 8%  
310 0.9% 8%  
311 2% 7%  
312 0.1% 5%  
313 0.1% 5%  
314 0.9% 5%  
315 0.5% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 1.3% 3% Last Result
318 0% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.4%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0% 1.1%  
325 0% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.1% Majority
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 0.9%  
329 0.4% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.3%  
257 0.4% 99.2%  
258 0.1% 98.8%  
259 0.1% 98.7%  
260 0.2% 98.6%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.1% 97%  
264 4% 97%  
265 0.2% 93%  
266 0.2% 93%  
267 0.1% 93%  
268 0.5% 93%  
269 2% 92%  
270 0.7% 90%  
271 2% 90%  
272 3% 87%  
273 0.4% 84%  
274 0.6% 84%  
275 3% 83%  
276 4% 80%  
277 3% 76%  
278 0.6% 74%  
279 0.7% 73%  
280 4% 73%  
281 0.3% 69%  
282 0.1% 69%  
283 6% 69%  
284 2% 62%  
285 0.3% 60%  
286 10% 60% Median
287 5% 50%  
288 0.9% 45%  
289 0.3% 44%  
290 0.8% 43%  
291 0.3% 43%  
292 1.3% 42%  
293 1.3% 41%  
294 0.1% 40%  
295 5% 40%  
296 5% 35%  
297 5% 30%  
298 0.7% 25%  
299 0.2% 24%  
300 0.3% 24%  
301 5% 24%  
302 0.7% 19%  
303 3% 18%  
304 1.1% 16%  
305 4% 15%  
306 0.3% 11%  
307 1.1% 10%  
308 0.5% 9%  
309 0.4% 9%  
310 0.9% 8%  
311 2% 7%  
312 0.3% 5%  
313 0.1% 5%  
314 0.8% 5%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 1.4% 4%  
318 0% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.2% 2% Last Result
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.1% 1.4%  
324 0.1% 1.4%  
325 0.1% 1.3%  
326 0% 1.1% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.1% 1.0%  
329 0.4% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations