Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI, 1–5 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.6% 35.7–39.6% 35.1–40.2% 34.7–40.7% 33.7–41.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.6% 35.7–39.6% 35.1–40.2% 34.7–40.7% 33.7–41.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–12.0% 7.7–12.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 280 251–312 247–316 241–321 235–331
Labour Party 262 271 239–295 235–301 232–305 223–313
Liberal Democrats 12 26 20–29 17–30 16–32 13–35
Scottish National Party 35 51 44–55 39–56 37–57 24–57
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 3–8 3–9 2–11

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.4% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.1%  
238 0.2% 99.0%  
239 0.2% 98.8%  
240 0.1% 98.6%  
241 1.1% 98%  
242 0.6% 97%  
243 0.3% 97%  
244 0.6% 97%  
245 0.2% 96%  
246 0.5% 96%  
247 0.6% 95%  
248 0.7% 95%  
249 1.5% 94%  
250 1.3% 93%  
251 1.5% 91%  
252 0.7% 90%  
253 0.8% 89%  
254 0.9% 88%  
255 0.6% 87%  
256 3% 87%  
257 1.0% 84%  
258 2% 83%  
259 3% 80%  
260 1.1% 78%  
261 3% 77%  
262 2% 74%  
263 3% 72%  
264 2% 69%  
265 0.8% 67%  
266 0.9% 66%  
267 1.2% 65%  
268 1.0% 64%  
269 0.7% 63%  
270 1.5% 62%  
271 2% 61%  
272 0.7% 59%  
273 0.6% 58%  
274 1.3% 57%  
275 0.8% 56%  
276 2% 55%  
277 0.6% 54%  
278 0.6% 53%  
279 2% 52%  
280 2% 51% Median
281 2% 49%  
282 2% 46%  
283 1.2% 44%  
284 3% 43%  
285 1.2% 40%  
286 1.1% 39%  
287 2% 37%  
288 1.3% 35%  
289 5% 34%  
290 0.7% 29%  
291 0.8% 28%  
292 1.0% 28%  
293 2% 27%  
294 0.4% 25%  
295 0.4% 24%  
296 0.6% 24%  
297 1.0% 23%  
298 1.1% 22%  
299 0.6% 21%  
300 0.5% 21%  
301 0.9% 20%  
302 1.4% 19%  
303 2% 18%  
304 0.6% 16%  
305 1.2% 16%  
306 0.8% 14%  
307 0.5% 14%  
308 0.5% 13%  
309 0.7% 13%  
310 1.4% 12%  
311 0.3% 11%  
312 0.7% 10%  
313 1.4% 10%  
314 2% 8%  
315 0.5% 6%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.7% 5% Last Result
318 0.1% 4%  
319 0.6% 4%  
320 0.7% 3%  
321 0.2% 3%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.4% 1.4%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.1% 99.5%  
225 0.2% 99.4%  
226 0.1% 99.2%  
227 0.1% 99.1%  
228 0.2% 98.9%  
229 0.3% 98.8%  
230 0.1% 98%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.7% 97%  
234 0.4% 97%  
235 2% 96%  
236 1.2% 94%  
237 1.1% 93%  
238 1.4% 92%  
239 1.0% 91%  
240 0.8% 90%  
241 0.9% 89%  
242 0.5% 88%  
243 1.1% 88%  
244 0.7% 86%  
245 0.8% 86%  
246 1.3% 85%  
247 1.1% 84%  
248 0.6% 83%  
249 1.4% 82%  
250 0.5% 81%  
251 0.7% 80%  
252 1.4% 79%  
253 0.6% 78%  
254 2% 77%  
255 2% 76%  
256 0.4% 73%  
257 2% 73%  
258 1.0% 71%  
259 0.7% 70%  
260 2% 69%  
261 3% 67%  
262 1.4% 64% Last Result
263 2% 63%  
264 2% 61%  
265 0.7% 59%  
266 0.9% 59%  
267 0.8% 58%  
268 1.4% 57%  
269 3% 56%  
270 2% 53%  
271 2% 51% Median
272 2% 49%  
273 0.6% 47%  
274 2% 46%  
275 1.4% 45%  
276 0.4% 43%  
277 1.4% 43%  
278 1.0% 41%  
279 1.2% 40%  
280 2% 39%  
281 2% 37%  
282 1.2% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 3% 31%  
285 1.1% 28%  
286 1.0% 27%  
287 0.3% 26%  
288 5% 26%  
289 1.4% 21%  
290 0.7% 20%  
291 3% 19%  
292 2% 16%  
293 2% 15%  
294 2% 13%  
295 1.4% 11%  
296 2% 10%  
297 0.7% 8%  
298 1.1% 7%  
299 0.8% 6%  
300 0.5% 6%  
301 0.3% 5%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 0.7% 4%  
304 0.7% 4%  
305 0.6% 3%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.6% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.4%  
310 0.3% 1.1%  
311 0.2% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.6%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
13 0.3% 99.6%  
14 0.5% 99.3%  
15 0.8% 98.8%  
16 2% 98%  
17 2% 97%  
18 1.3% 95%  
19 3% 94%  
20 3% 91%  
21 2% 88%  
22 4% 86%  
23 4% 83%  
24 11% 78%  
25 9% 68%  
26 16% 59% Median
27 17% 43%  
28 12% 26%  
29 7% 14%  
30 3% 7%  
31 1.2% 4%  
32 1.0% 3%  
33 0.4% 2%  
34 0.4% 1.4%  
35 0.5% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.7%  
21 0% 99.7%  
22 0% 99.7%  
23 0.1% 99.7%  
24 0.1% 99.5%  
25 0.1% 99.4%  
26 0.2% 99.3%  
27 0.1% 99.2%  
28 0.3% 99.1%  
29 0.3% 98.8%  
30 0% 98.5%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0.2% 98%  
33 0.1% 98%  
34 0.1% 98%  
35 0.3% 98% Last Result
36 0% 98%  
37 0.4% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 0.9% 96%  
40 2% 95%  
41 0.8% 93%  
42 0.6% 92%  
43 0.3% 92%  
44 1.4% 91%  
45 2% 90%  
46 1.5% 88%  
47 7% 86%  
48 6% 79%  
49 2% 73%  
50 14% 71%  
51 13% 57% Median
52 12% 44%  
53 5% 32%  
54 15% 28%  
55 4% 13%  
56 5% 9%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 97% 100% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 1.0% 99.8%  
3 8% 98.9%  
4 6% 91% Last Result
5 60% 85% Median
6 5% 25%  
7 3% 20%  
8 14% 17%  
9 1.4% 3%  
10 0.8% 1.5%  
11 0.2% 0.7%  
12 0.2% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.3%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 350 84% 319–378 314–383 309–389 299–395
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 345 79% 313–373 308–378 303–384 293–390
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 334 61% 308–366 302–371 298–375 288–384
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 328 54% 303–361 298–366 292–370 284–378
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 325 49% 294–352 290–357 285–361 277–369
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 320 43% 288–347 285–352 279–356 270–364
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 305 19% 278–336 273–340 269–345 262–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 302 12% 269–327 265–333 260–338 252–347
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 296 6% 264–322 259–328 255–333 246–342
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 285 3% 256–317 252–322 246–327 240–337
Conservative Party 317 280 2% 251–312 247–316 241–321 235–331
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 277 0.2% 245–301 241–306 239–311 230–318
Labour Party 262 271 0.1% 239–295 235–301 232–305 223–313

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.4%  
302 0.3% 99.3%  
303 0.4% 99.0%  
304 0.2% 98.6%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.6% 97%  
311 0.7% 97%  
312 0.2% 96%  
313 0.7% 96% Last Result
314 0.3% 95%  
315 0.4% 95%  
316 2% 95%  
317 2% 93%  
318 0.5% 91%  
319 0.5% 90%  
320 1.5% 90%  
321 0.8% 88%  
322 0.4% 87%  
323 0.6% 87%  
324 0.7% 86%  
325 1.2% 86%  
326 0.6% 84% Majority
327 0.7% 84%  
328 2% 83%  
329 1.4% 81%  
330 0.5% 80%  
331 0.6% 79%  
332 1.1% 79%  
333 1.0% 78%  
334 0.6% 77%  
335 0.3% 76%  
336 0.5% 76%  
337 1.4% 75%  
338 1.4% 74%  
339 0.5% 72%  
340 1.2% 72%  
341 4% 71%  
342 2% 67%  
343 2% 65%  
344 0.8% 63%  
345 2% 62%  
346 2% 60%  
347 2% 58%  
348 2% 56%  
349 2% 54%  
350 2% 52%  
351 1.2% 50%  
352 1.2% 48%  
353 0.6% 47% Median
354 2% 46%  
355 0.7% 45%  
356 1.4% 44%  
357 0.6% 43%  
358 0.5% 42%  
359 2% 42%  
360 1.3% 40%  
361 0.8% 38%  
362 1.0% 38%  
363 1.2% 37%  
364 1.2% 35%  
365 0.4% 34%  
366 2% 34%  
367 3% 31%  
368 1.4% 28%  
369 3% 27%  
370 1.1% 24%  
371 2% 23%  
372 3% 20%  
373 1.0% 18%  
374 3% 17%  
375 0.4% 13%  
376 1.1% 13%  
377 0.8% 12%  
378 1.1% 11%  
379 1.0% 10%  
380 1.4% 9%  
381 1.4% 8%  
382 0.7% 6%  
383 0.6% 5%  
384 0.4% 5%  
385 0.4% 4%  
386 0.6% 4%  
387 0.2% 3%  
388 0.6% 3%  
389 1.1% 3%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.4%  
392 0.1% 1.2%  
393 0.1% 1.1%  
394 0.4% 0.9%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.3%  
296 0.2% 99.2%  
297 0.2% 98.9%  
298 0.3% 98.7%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.2% 97%  
305 0.6% 97%  
306 0.6% 97%  
307 0.2% 96%  
308 0.9% 96%  
309 1.0% 95% Last Result
310 0.6% 94%  
311 1.2% 93%  
312 1.3% 92%  
313 1.1% 91%  
314 1.2% 90%  
315 0.6% 88%  
316 1.0% 88%  
317 0.7% 87%  
318 0.4% 86%  
319 0.8% 86%  
320 0.9% 85%  
321 1.1% 84%  
322 0.7% 83%  
323 1.4% 82%  
324 1.2% 81%  
325 0.6% 80%  
326 0.8% 79% Majority
327 1.2% 78%  
328 0.7% 77%  
329 0.8% 76%  
330 0.3% 76%  
331 0.7% 75%  
332 2% 75%  
333 2% 73%  
334 0.5% 71%  
335 0.9% 70%  
336 3% 69%  
337 3% 67%  
338 1.4% 64%  
339 0.5% 62%  
340 2% 62%  
341 2% 59%  
342 2% 57%  
343 1.4% 55%  
344 3% 54%  
345 2% 51%  
346 1.3% 49%  
347 1.3% 48%  
348 1.1% 47% Median
349 1.3% 46%  
350 0.5% 44%  
351 2% 44%  
352 0.6% 42%  
353 0.6% 42%  
354 1.2% 41%  
355 1.3% 40%  
356 1.4% 39%  
357 1.3% 37%  
358 2% 36%  
359 0.7% 34%  
360 2% 33%  
361 1.4% 32%  
362 3% 30%  
363 0.9% 27%  
364 2% 26%  
365 1.1% 24%  
366 3% 23%  
367 2% 19%  
368 1.0% 17%  
369 3% 16%  
370 0.6% 13%  
371 1.3% 13%  
372 0.9% 12%  
373 0.9% 11%  
374 1.5% 10%  
375 1.1% 8%  
376 1.2% 7%  
377 0.5% 6%  
378 0.6% 6%  
379 0.7% 5%  
380 0.3% 4%  
381 0.5% 4%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.6% 3%  
384 0.9% 3%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.5%  
387 0.1% 1.2%  
388 0.1% 1.1%  
389 0.4% 1.0%  
390 0.1% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.2% 99.3%  
293 0.1% 99.0%  
294 0.2% 98.9%  
295 0.5% 98.7%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.5% 97%  
300 0.7% 97%  
301 0.5% 96%  
302 0.5% 95%  
303 0.6% 95%  
304 0.4% 94%  
305 1.3% 94%  
306 1.4% 93%  
307 0.6% 91%  
308 1.2% 91%  
309 0.3% 89%  
310 2% 89%  
311 4% 87%  
312 0.8% 83%  
313 1.1% 82%  
314 2% 81%  
315 2% 80%  
316 1.3% 78%  
317 2% 77%  
318 3% 75%  
319 2% 72%  
320 0.5% 70%  
321 1.3% 69%  
322 0.4% 68%  
323 3% 68%  
324 3% 65%  
325 0.5% 61%  
326 2% 61% Majority
327 0.8% 59%  
328 0.9% 58%  
329 2% 57%  
330 0.5% 55%  
331 1.5% 55%  
332 2% 53%  
333 2% 52%  
334 1.4% 50%  
335 2% 49%  
336 1.0% 47% Median
337 1.2% 46%  
338 2% 44%  
339 1.4% 43%  
340 1.5% 41%  
341 2% 40%  
342 0.8% 37%  
343 1.2% 36%  
344 0.7% 35%  
345 2% 35%  
346 3% 33%  
347 2% 30%  
348 1.0% 28%  
349 1.1% 27%  
350 1.2% 26%  
351 0.4% 25%  
352 1.2% 24%  
353 2% 23%  
354 0.7% 22%  
355 2% 21%  
356 0.2% 19% Last Result
357 0.5% 19%  
358 2% 18%  
359 0.7% 16%  
360 0.7% 16%  
361 0.6% 15%  
362 0.7% 14%  
363 0.7% 13%  
364 1.2% 13%  
365 1.4% 12%  
366 0.9% 10%  
367 1.5% 9%  
368 0.7% 8%  
369 0.9% 7%  
370 0.7% 6%  
371 0.4% 5%  
372 0.4% 5%  
373 0.3% 5%  
374 1.1% 4%  
375 0.8% 3%  
376 0.3% 2%  
377 0.2% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.2% 1.3%  
381 0.2% 1.1%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.5%  
285 0.1% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.3%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.1% 99.1%  
289 0.3% 99.0%  
290 0.7% 98.7%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.6% 97%  
295 0.7% 97%  
296 0.4% 96%  
297 0.4% 95%  
298 0.5% 95%  
299 0.6% 95%  
300 1.2% 94%  
301 1.3% 93%  
302 0.8% 91%  
303 2% 91%  
304 1.0% 89%  
305 2% 88%  
306 4% 87%  
307 0.6% 83%  
308 2% 82%  
309 2% 81%  
310 2% 79%  
311 1.2% 77%  
312 1.1% 76%  
313 2% 75%  
314 3% 73%  
315 0.8% 70%  
316 2% 69%  
317 0.7% 67%  
318 4% 67%  
319 1.5% 63%  
320 0.7% 61%  
321 1.1% 60%  
322 1.3% 59%  
323 1.1% 58%  
324 2% 57%  
325 0.6% 55%  
326 1.4% 54% Majority
327 2% 53%  
328 2% 51%  
329 1.0% 50%  
330 3% 49%  
331 2% 46% Median
332 0.8% 44%  
333 1.4% 43%  
334 2% 42%  
335 1.4% 40%  
336 2% 39%  
337 1.0% 37%  
338 1.0% 36%  
339 1.4% 35%  
340 1.3% 33%  
341 4% 32%  
342 0.6% 28%  
343 2% 28%  
344 0.8% 26%  
345 1.5% 25%  
346 0.4% 24%  
347 1.2% 23%  
348 1.0% 22%  
349 0.6% 21%  
350 1.3% 21%  
351 0.8% 19%  
352 1.1% 18% Last Result
353 2% 17%  
354 0.4% 15%  
355 0.9% 15%  
356 0.8% 14%  
357 0.7% 13%  
358 1.0% 13%  
359 0.6% 12%  
360 0.8% 11%  
361 1.0% 10%  
362 2% 9%  
363 0.7% 7%  
364 0.9% 7%  
365 0.7% 6%  
366 1.2% 5%  
367 0.4% 4%  
368 0.1% 3%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.6% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.3% 1.4%  
375 0.3% 1.1%  
376 0.1% 0.8%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.4% 99.0%  
282 0.5% 98.6%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.2% 97%  
287 0.7% 97%  
288 0.6% 96%  
289 0.4% 96%  
290 2% 96%  
291 0.8% 94%  
292 1.4% 93%  
293 1.1% 92%  
294 0.6% 91%  
295 2% 90%  
296 0.7% 88%  
297 0.4% 88%  
298 1.1% 87%  
299 0.6% 86%  
300 0.5% 86%  
301 1.4% 85% Last Result
302 0.4% 84%  
303 1.4% 83%  
304 0.6% 82%  
305 0.8% 81%  
306 1.3% 80%  
307 1.3% 79%  
308 0.2% 78%  
309 1.1% 78%  
310 0.7% 77%  
311 1.2% 76%  
312 0.7% 75%  
313 1.2% 74%  
314 3% 73%  
315 1.2% 70%  
316 0.9% 69%  
317 4% 68%  
318 3% 64%  
319 0.9% 62%  
320 2% 61%  
321 1.1% 59%  
322 2% 58%  
323 2% 56%  
324 3% 54%  
325 2% 51%  
326 0.7% 49% Majority
327 0.8% 49% Median
328 3% 48%  
329 2% 45%  
330 0.4% 44%  
331 0.8% 43%  
332 2% 43%  
333 1.0% 41%  
334 0.8% 40%  
335 0.7% 39%  
336 1.4% 38%  
337 1.2% 37%  
338 0.6% 36%  
339 3% 35%  
340 2% 33%  
341 0.9% 30%  
342 1.4% 29%  
343 3% 28%  
344 3% 25%  
345 2% 22%  
346 3% 20%  
347 1.2% 17%  
348 0.9% 16%  
349 1.3% 15%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 12%  
352 1.0% 10%  
353 2% 9%  
354 0.8% 8%  
355 1.1% 7%  
356 0.6% 6%  
357 0.7% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.5% 4%  
360 0.2% 3%  
361 0.8% 3%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.2% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.4%  
366 0.2% 1.2%  
367 0.1% 1.0%  
368 0.4% 0.9%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.2%  
274 0.2% 99.1%  
275 0.3% 99.0%  
276 0.3% 98.7%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 0.3% 97%  
282 0.7% 97%  
283 0.6% 96%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 1.3% 95%  
286 0.8% 94%  
287 2% 93%  
288 1.1% 91%  
289 1.2% 90%  
290 0.9% 89%  
291 0.7% 88%  
292 0.3% 87%  
293 1.0% 87%  
294 0.4% 86%  
295 0.8% 85%  
296 1.5% 84%  
297 0.6% 83% Last Result
298 0.9% 82%  
299 0.8% 82%  
300 1.0% 81%  
301 0.8% 80%  
302 1.0% 79%  
303 1.2% 78%  
304 0.6% 77%  
305 1.2% 76%  
306 2% 75%  
307 2% 73%  
308 0.7% 71%  
309 1.4% 71%  
310 0.6% 69%  
311 1.2% 69%  
312 3% 68%  
313 4% 65%  
314 0.9% 61%  
315 2% 60%  
316 1.0% 58%  
317 2% 57%  
318 2% 56%  
319 3% 54%  
320 2% 51%  
321 0.6% 49%  
322 0.7% 48% Median
323 2% 47%  
324 1.3% 45%  
325 1.2% 44%  
326 0.7% 43% Majority
327 0.7% 42%  
328 1.4% 41%  
329 1.3% 40%  
330 1.1% 38%  
331 1.0% 37%  
332 0.9% 36%  
333 1.0% 35%  
334 3% 34%  
335 2% 32%  
336 1.4% 30%  
337 1.2% 28%  
338 2% 27%  
339 3% 25%  
340 2% 22%  
341 3% 20%  
342 2% 17%  
343 0.7% 15%  
344 1.1% 15%  
345 2% 14%  
346 1.4% 12%  
347 1.4% 10%  
348 2% 9%  
349 0.7% 7%  
350 0.7% 7%  
351 0.7% 6%  
352 0.5% 5%  
353 0.7% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.6% 3%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.2% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 0.9%  
363 0.3% 0.8%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.3% 99.5%  
263 0.2% 99.2%  
264 0.2% 99.0%  
265 0.2% 98.9%  
266 0.2% 98.6%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.8% 98%  
270 0.2% 97%  
271 0.5% 97%  
272 0.3% 96%  
273 0.8% 96%  
274 0.5% 95%  
275 1.2% 94%  
276 0.8% 93%  
277 2% 92%  
278 0.9% 91%  
279 1.4% 90%  
280 2% 88%  
281 1.3% 86%  
282 1.0% 85%  
283 1.1% 84%  
284 3% 83%  
285 2% 80%  
286 4% 78%  
287 3% 75%  
288 1.4% 72%  
289 0.6% 71%  
290 3% 70%  
291 2% 67%  
292 1.0% 65%  
293 0.9% 64%  
294 1.2% 63%  
295 1.2% 62%  
296 0.5% 61%  
297 1.1% 60%  
298 2% 59%  
299 0.7% 57%  
300 0.4% 57%  
301 2% 56%  
302 2% 55%  
303 1.4% 53%  
304 0.8% 51%  
305 1.5% 51%  
306 2% 49% Median
307 3% 47%  
308 2% 44%  
309 1.3% 42%  
310 1.1% 41%  
311 2% 40%  
312 2% 38%  
313 5% 36%  
314 0.8% 32%  
315 1.3% 31%  
316 2% 30%  
317 1.3% 27%  
318 0.8% 26%  
319 1.2% 25%  
320 0.6% 24%  
321 1.2% 23%  
322 0.1% 22%  
323 1.4% 22%  
324 1.2% 21%  
325 0.3% 19%  
326 0.9% 19% Majority
327 1.4% 18%  
328 0.4% 17%  
329 0.5% 16% Last Result
330 1.4% 16%  
331 0.6% 14%  
332 1.2% 14%  
333 0.3% 13%  
334 0.7% 12%  
335 1.2% 12%  
336 1.0% 10%  
337 0.7% 9%  
338 2% 9%  
339 0.7% 7%  
340 2% 6%  
341 0.5% 5%  
342 0.6% 4%  
343 0.6% 4%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.4% 1.5%  
350 0.1% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.1% 99.4%  
255 0.3% 99.2%  
256 0.3% 98.9%  
257 0.2% 98.6%  
258 0.2% 98%  
259 0.3% 98%  
260 0.6% 98%  
261 0.7% 97%  
262 0.2% 97%  
263 0.3% 97%  
264 0.5% 96%  
265 1.5% 96%  
266 0.8% 94%  
267 0.7% 93%  
268 2% 93%  
269 1.2% 91%  
270 0.8% 90%  
271 0.5% 89%  
272 1.0% 88%  
273 0.8% 87%  
274 0.7% 87%  
275 0.9% 86%  
276 0.4% 85%  
277 1.2% 85%  
278 2% 83% Last Result
279 0.7% 82%  
280 0.8% 81%  
281 0.9% 80%  
282 1.2% 79%  
283 0.8% 78%  
284 0.8% 77%  
285 2% 76%  
286 0.7% 75%  
287 2% 74%  
288 0.6% 72%  
289 3% 72%  
290 2% 69%  
291 1.1% 67%  
292 1.1% 65%  
293 0.8% 64%  
294 1.2% 64%  
295 3% 62%  
296 2% 60%  
297 0.8% 58%  
298 1.4% 57%  
299 1.1% 56%  
300 3% 55%  
301 1.0% 51%  
302 2% 50% Median
303 1.5% 49%  
304 0.8% 47%  
305 1.2% 46%  
306 2% 45%  
307 1.1% 43%  
308 1.1% 42%  
309 1.1% 41%  
310 0.8% 40%  
311 1.5% 39%  
312 4% 37%  
313 0.7% 33%  
314 1.4% 33%  
315 1.1% 31%  
316 3% 30%  
317 2% 27%  
318 1.0% 25%  
319 1.1% 24%  
320 2% 23%  
321 2% 21%  
322 2% 19%  
323 0.8% 18%  
324 3% 17%  
325 2% 14%  
326 1.2% 12% Majority
327 2% 11%  
328 0.7% 9%  
329 1.4% 9%  
330 1.0% 7%  
331 0.7% 6%  
332 0.4% 6%  
333 0.5% 5%  
334 0.5% 5%  
335 0.7% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.3% 3%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.7% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.3%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.2%  
249 0.2% 99.1%  
250 0.2% 98.9%  
251 0.2% 98.7%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 0.3% 98%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.7% 98%  
256 0.6% 97%  
257 0.9% 96%  
258 0.4% 95%  
259 0.4% 95%  
260 0.7% 95%  
261 0.9% 94%  
262 0.8% 93%  
263 1.3% 92%  
264 1.0% 91%  
265 2% 90%  
266 1.1% 88%  
267 0.8% 87%  
268 0.7% 87%  
269 0.7% 86%  
270 0.7% 85%  
271 0.6% 84%  
272 1.5% 84%  
273 1.2% 82%  
274 0.1% 81% Last Result
275 1.2% 81%  
276 1.1% 80%  
277 2% 79%  
278 0.9% 77%  
279 0.6% 76%  
280 1.2% 75%  
281 1.0% 74%  
282 1.1% 73%  
283 2% 72%  
284 2% 70%  
285 3% 68%  
286 0.5% 65%  
287 1.3% 65%  
288 0.4% 64%  
289 2% 63%  
290 3% 61%  
291 1.0% 59%  
292 2% 58%  
293 1.4% 56%  
294 0.7% 55%  
295 3% 54%  
296 1.4% 51%  
297 1.5% 50% Median
298 2% 48%  
299 0.8% 47%  
300 1.3% 46%  
301 2% 45%  
302 0.9% 43%  
303 0.5% 42%  
304 2% 41%  
305 0.7% 39%  
306 3% 39%  
307 3% 35%  
308 0.5% 32%  
309 0.9% 32%  
310 0.7% 31%  
311 2% 30%  
312 2% 28%  
313 2% 25%  
314 1.4% 24%  
315 2% 22%  
316 2% 20%  
317 1.1% 19%  
318 0.8% 18%  
319 3% 17%  
320 2% 14%  
321 0.7% 11%  
322 1.1% 10%  
323 0.6% 9%  
324 1.4% 9%  
325 1.0% 7%  
326 0.6% 6% Majority
327 0.6% 6%  
328 0.4% 5%  
329 0.6% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.5% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.3%  
337 0.1% 1.1%  
338 0.2% 1.0%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0.1% 99.5%  
241 0.3% 99.4%  
242 0.1% 99.0%  
243 0.1% 98.9%  
244 0.2% 98.8%  
245 0.2% 98.6%  
246 0.9% 98%  
247 0.6% 97%  
248 0.3% 97%  
249 0.5% 97%  
250 0.2% 96%  
251 0.8% 96%  
252 0.6% 95%  
253 0.5% 95%  
254 1.2% 94%  
255 1.0% 93%  
256 2% 92%  
257 0.6% 90%  
258 0.8% 89%  
259 0.8% 88%  
260 1.0% 88%  
261 3% 87%  
262 0.8% 84%  
263 1.5% 83%  
264 4% 81%  
265 1.4% 78%  
266 2% 76%  
267 0.9% 74%  
268 3% 73%  
269 1.3% 70%  
270 2% 68%  
271 0.4% 67%  
272 2% 66%  
273 1.5% 64%  
274 1.1% 63%  
275 2% 62%  
276 1.0% 60%  
277 0.8% 59%  
278 0.4% 58%  
279 2% 58%  
280 0.6% 56%  
281 1.3% 56%  
282 1.0% 54%  
283 0.7% 53%  
284 2% 53%  
285 2% 51% Median
286 3% 49%  
287 2% 46%  
288 0.6% 45%  
289 3% 44%  
290 2% 41%  
291 0.9% 39%  
292 2% 38%  
293 2% 36%  
294 3% 34%  
295 0.5% 31%  
296 0.6% 30%  
297 2% 30%  
298 2% 28%  
299 0.6% 25%  
300 0.1% 25%  
301 0.9% 25%  
302 0.7% 24%  
303 1.3% 23%  
304 0.8% 22%  
305 0.7% 21%  
306 0.8% 20%  
307 0.9% 20%  
308 2% 19%  
309 1.1% 17%  
310 0.9% 16%  
311 0.7% 15%  
312 0.6% 14%  
313 0.7% 14%  
314 0.9% 13%  
315 0.5% 12%  
316 0.9% 12%  
317 1.4% 11%  
318 1.2% 9%  
319 1.4% 8%  
320 0.6% 7%  
321 0.3% 6% Last Result
322 2% 6%  
323 0.2% 4%  
324 0.6% 4%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.2% 3% Majority
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 0.8%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.4% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.1%  
238 0.2% 99.0%  
239 0.2% 98.8%  
240 0.1% 98.6%  
241 1.1% 98%  
242 0.6% 97%  
243 0.3% 97%  
244 0.6% 97%  
245 0.2% 96%  
246 0.5% 96%  
247 0.6% 95%  
248 0.7% 95%  
249 1.5% 94%  
250 1.3% 93%  
251 1.5% 91%  
252 0.7% 90%  
253 0.8% 89%  
254 0.9% 88%  
255 0.6% 87%  
256 3% 87%  
257 1.0% 84%  
258 2% 83%  
259 3% 80%  
260 1.1% 78%  
261 3% 77%  
262 2% 74%  
263 3% 72%  
264 2% 69%  
265 0.8% 67%  
266 0.9% 66%  
267 1.2% 65%  
268 1.0% 64%  
269 0.7% 63%  
270 1.5% 62%  
271 2% 61%  
272 0.7% 59%  
273 0.6% 58%  
274 1.3% 57%  
275 0.8% 56%  
276 2% 55%  
277 0.6% 54%  
278 0.6% 53%  
279 2% 52%  
280 2% 51% Median
281 2% 49%  
282 2% 46%  
283 1.2% 44%  
284 3% 43%  
285 1.2% 40%  
286 1.1% 39%  
287 2% 37%  
288 1.3% 35%  
289 5% 34%  
290 0.7% 29%  
291 0.8% 28%  
292 1.0% 28%  
293 2% 27%  
294 0.4% 25%  
295 0.4% 24%  
296 0.6% 24%  
297 1.0% 23%  
298 1.1% 22%  
299 0.6% 21%  
300 0.5% 21%  
301 0.9% 20%  
302 1.4% 19%  
303 2% 18%  
304 0.6% 16%  
305 1.2% 16%  
306 0.8% 14%  
307 0.5% 14%  
308 0.5% 13%  
309 0.7% 13%  
310 1.4% 12%  
311 0.3% 11%  
312 0.7% 10%  
313 1.4% 10%  
314 2% 8%  
315 0.5% 6%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.7% 5% Last Result
318 0.1% 4%  
319 0.6% 4%  
320 0.7% 3%  
321 0.2% 3%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.4% 1.4%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.2% 99.7%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.1% 99.3%  
232 0.2% 99.2%  
233 0% 99.0%  
234 0.3% 99.0%  
235 0.1% 98.7%  
236 0.5% 98.5%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.3% 98%  
240 2% 97%  
241 2% 96%  
242 2% 94%  
243 2% 92%  
244 0.4% 90%  
245 0.5% 90%  
246 0.2% 90%  
247 1.1% 89%  
248 1.3% 88%  
249 0.5% 87%  
250 0.8% 87%  
251 1.4% 86%  
252 1.0% 84%  
253 1.3% 83%  
254 1.5% 82%  
255 0.2% 80%  
256 0.1% 80%  
257 0.1% 80%  
258 2% 80%  
259 2% 78%  
260 1.4% 76%  
261 0.3% 75%  
262 1.1% 74%  
263 2% 73%  
264 0.8% 71%  
265 4% 71%  
266 1.4% 66% Last Result
267 0.8% 65%  
268 2% 64%  
269 2% 62%  
270 0.7% 60%  
271 0.1% 59%  
272 0.3% 59%  
273 2% 59%  
274 3% 56%  
275 2% 53%  
276 1.4% 52% Median
277 3% 50%  
278 1.2% 48%  
279 2% 46%  
280 1.0% 44%  
281 1.2% 43%  
282 0.4% 42%  
283 1.1% 42%  
284 0.2% 41%  
285 2% 40%  
286 3% 39%  
287 2% 36%  
288 3% 34%  
289 2% 31%  
290 0.5% 28%  
291 0.4% 28%  
292 0.5% 28%  
293 5% 27%  
294 1.3% 22%  
295 0.8% 21%  
296 3% 20%  
297 2% 17%  
298 1.3% 15%  
299 2% 14%  
300 1.3% 12%  
301 2% 10%  
302 0.5% 8%  
303 1.4% 7%  
304 0.6% 6%  
305 0.3% 6%  
306 0.2% 5%  
307 0.6% 5%  
308 0.7% 4%  
309 0.5% 4%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.4% 3%  
312 0.5% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.4%  
315 0.3% 1.1%  
316 0.2% 0.8%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.1% 99.5%  
225 0.2% 99.4%  
226 0.1% 99.2%  
227 0.1% 99.1%  
228 0.2% 98.9%  
229 0.3% 98.8%  
230 0.1% 98%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.7% 97%  
234 0.4% 97%  
235 2% 96%  
236 1.2% 94%  
237 1.1% 93%  
238 1.4% 92%  
239 1.0% 91%  
240 0.8% 90%  
241 0.9% 89%  
242 0.5% 88%  
243 1.1% 88%  
244 0.7% 86%  
245 0.8% 86%  
246 1.3% 85%  
247 1.1% 84%  
248 0.6% 83%  
249 1.4% 82%  
250 0.5% 81%  
251 0.7% 80%  
252 1.4% 79%  
253 0.6% 78%  
254 2% 77%  
255 2% 76%  
256 0.4% 73%  
257 2% 73%  
258 1.0% 71%  
259 0.7% 70%  
260 2% 69%  
261 3% 67%  
262 1.4% 64% Last Result
263 2% 63%  
264 2% 61%  
265 0.7% 59%  
266 0.9% 59%  
267 0.8% 58%  
268 1.4% 57%  
269 3% 56%  
270 2% 53%  
271 2% 51% Median
272 2% 49%  
273 0.6% 47%  
274 2% 46%  
275 1.4% 45%  
276 0.4% 43%  
277 1.4% 43%  
278 1.0% 41%  
279 1.2% 40%  
280 2% 39%  
281 2% 37%  
282 1.2% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 3% 31%  
285 1.1% 28%  
286 1.0% 27%  
287 0.3% 26%  
288 5% 26%  
289 1.4% 21%  
290 0.7% 20%  
291 3% 19%  
292 2% 16%  
293 2% 15%  
294 2% 13%  
295 1.4% 11%  
296 2% 10%  
297 0.7% 8%  
298 1.1% 7%  
299 0.8% 6%  
300 0.5% 6%  
301 0.3% 5%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 0.7% 4%  
304 0.7% 4%  
305 0.6% 3%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.6% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.4%  
310 0.3% 1.1%  
311 0.2% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.6%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations