Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 4–8 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.6% 36.0–39.2% 35.6–39.7% 35.2–40.1% 34.4–40.9%
Labour Party 40.0% 34.7% 33.1–36.3% 32.7–36.7% 32.3–37.1% 31.6–37.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 12.8% 11.8–14.0% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.6% 10.7–15.2%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.6%
Green Party 1.6% 4.9% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.6–6.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 304 274–320 266–329 265–332 250–339
Labour Party 262 242 231–276 224–279 223–291 216–305
Liberal Democrats 12 35 31–40 30–41 29–43 27–46
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Green Party 1 2 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Scottish National Party 35 41 24–50 20–50 16–50 6–51
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 3–8 3–8 3–10

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.5%  
251 0% 99.5%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.2% 99.3%  
255 0% 99.1%  
256 0.2% 99.1%  
257 0% 98.9%  
258 0.6% 98.8%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 2% 98%  
266 0.9% 96%  
267 1.1% 95%  
268 0% 94%  
269 0.5% 94%  
270 0.3% 93%  
271 0% 93%  
272 0.1% 93%  
273 2% 93%  
274 4% 90%  
275 0.1% 87%  
276 1.0% 86%  
277 0.5% 86%  
278 0.3% 85%  
279 0.4% 85%  
280 0.4% 84%  
281 0.4% 84%  
282 0.2% 83%  
283 0.4% 83%  
284 0.2% 83%  
285 0.2% 83%  
286 0.1% 83%  
287 0.3% 82%  
288 2% 82%  
289 0.7% 80%  
290 0.5% 80%  
291 1.1% 79%  
292 0.3% 78%  
293 0.2% 78%  
294 1.4% 78%  
295 0.4% 76%  
296 2% 76%  
297 12% 74%  
298 3% 62%  
299 0.3% 59%  
300 0.2% 59%  
301 2% 59%  
302 5% 57%  
303 2% 52%  
304 3% 51% Median
305 2% 48%  
306 1.4% 46%  
307 2% 45%  
308 0.5% 42%  
309 2% 42%  
310 0.7% 39%  
311 2% 39%  
312 0.4% 37%  
313 8% 37%  
314 6% 28%  
315 0.4% 23%  
316 5% 22%  
317 0.5% 17% Last Result
318 0.4% 17%  
319 6% 16%  
320 0.8% 10%  
321 0.8% 9%  
322 0.6% 9%  
323 0.5% 8%  
324 0.8% 8%  
325 0.2% 7%  
326 0.8% 7% Majority
327 0.4% 6%  
328 0.3% 5%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.3% 4%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 1.1% 2%  
335 0.1% 1.2%  
336 0.1% 1.1%  
337 0% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.3% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0.2% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
203 0% 100%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.8%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0.1% 99.5%  
217 0.3% 99.5%  
218 0.1% 99.2%  
219 0.1% 99.1%  
220 0.3% 99.0%  
221 0.1% 98.7%  
222 0.5% 98.6%  
223 3% 98%  
224 0.6% 95%  
225 0.8% 95%  
226 0.4% 94%  
227 0.4% 93%  
228 0.2% 93%  
229 0.3% 93%  
230 2% 93%  
231 0.8% 90%  
232 6% 90%  
233 14% 83%  
234 0.9% 69%  
235 2% 68%  
236 3% 66%  
237 0.9% 63%  
238 4% 62%  
239 0.2% 58%  
240 2% 58%  
241 5% 56%  
242 0.4% 50% Median
243 0.7% 50%  
244 3% 49%  
245 7% 46%  
246 7% 39%  
247 2% 32%  
248 0.6% 30%  
249 0.1% 30%  
250 0.3% 30%  
251 0.2% 29%  
252 0.6% 29%  
253 1.2% 28%  
254 0.5% 27%  
255 1.5% 27%  
256 2% 25%  
257 0.1% 23%  
258 2% 23%  
259 0.9% 21%  
260 0.5% 21%  
261 1.0% 20%  
262 1.4% 19% Last Result
263 0.1% 18%  
264 0.8% 18%  
265 0.2% 17%  
266 0.8% 17%  
267 0.2% 16%  
268 0.6% 16%  
269 0.2% 15%  
270 0.7% 15%  
271 1.0% 14%  
272 2% 13%  
273 0.2% 11%  
274 0.3% 11%  
275 0.2% 11%  
276 2% 11%  
277 0.1% 9%  
278 4% 9%  
279 0.1% 5%  
280 0.2% 5%  
281 0.1% 5%  
282 0.4% 5%  
283 0.3% 4%  
284 0.1% 4%  
285 0.2% 4%  
286 0.1% 4%  
287 0.2% 4%  
288 0.1% 4%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.2% 3%  
291 1.5% 3%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.1% 1.5%  
294 0.4% 1.4%  
295 0% 1.0%  
296 0% 1.0%  
297 0% 1.0%  
298 0% 1.0%  
299 0.2% 0.9%  
300 0% 0.8%  
301 0% 0.8%  
302 0.1% 0.8%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0% 0.5%  
305 0% 0.5%  
306 0% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.5%  
308 0.2% 0.5%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 0.7% 99.2%  
29 2% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 13% 94%  
32 11% 81%  
33 6% 71%  
34 12% 65%  
35 6% 53% Median
36 15% 48%  
37 9% 32%  
38 3% 24%  
39 3% 20%  
40 11% 17%  
41 2% 6%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.8% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.9%  
46 0.3% 0.7%  
47 0.4% 0.4%  
48 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100% Last Result
2 76% 92% Median
3 11% 15%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 0.2% 99.7%  
6 0.5% 99.5%  
7 0.4% 99.0%  
8 0% 98.7%  
9 0% 98.6%  
10 0% 98.6%  
11 0.1% 98.6%  
12 0.6% 98%  
13 0.2% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0.1% 98%  
16 0.1% 98%  
17 0.3% 97%  
18 0.4% 97%  
19 0.3% 97%  
20 2% 96%  
21 0.1% 94%  
22 3% 94%  
23 0.5% 91%  
24 1.2% 91%  
25 0.2% 89%  
26 2% 89%  
27 0.3% 87%  
28 0.3% 87%  
29 0% 87%  
30 2% 87%  
31 0.1% 84%  
32 0.4% 84%  
33 0.6% 84%  
34 1.1% 83%  
35 4% 82% Last Result
36 1.3% 78%  
37 3% 77%  
38 6% 74%  
39 10% 69%  
40 2% 59%  
41 9% 57% Median
42 2% 48%  
43 4% 45%  
44 2% 41%  
45 9% 39%  
46 0.5% 30%  
47 10% 30%  
48 7% 20%  
49 0% 13%  
50 11% 13%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0% 0.5%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 5% 99.7%  
4 21% 94% Last Result
5 32% 73% Median
6 11% 41%  
7 6% 31%  
8 23% 25%  
9 0.6% 2%  
10 1.0% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 350 84% 317–365 311–372 301–376 286–382
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 345 81% 313–360 306–366 296–371 281–376
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 339 81% 308–356 304–361 303–365 288–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 325 48% 309–355 301–363 296–364 290–379
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 319 34% 304–350 295–359 291–360 284–374
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 310 10% 279–325 270–335 269–339 255–345
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 284 4% 269–316 264–323 259–333 254–348
Conservative Party 317 304 7% 274–320 266–329 265–332 250–339
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 278 3% 264–312 258–317 254–327 248–343
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 289 3% 272–321 269–325 265–326 257–341
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 283 2% 268–316 261–320 258–321 251–336
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 249 0% 238–281 231–286 228–295 221–309
Labour Party 262 242 0% 231–276 224–279 223–291 216–305

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.3% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.5%  
286 0.1% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.5%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0.2% 99.3%  
292 0.2% 99.2%  
293 0% 98.9%  
294 0% 98.9%  
295 0% 98.9%  
296 1.1% 98.9%  
297 0% 98%  
298 0% 98%  
299 0% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.6% 97%  
303 0.1% 97%  
304 0.1% 97%  
305 0.2% 97%  
306 0.1% 96%  
307 0.4% 96%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 0.2% 96%  
310 0.1% 96%  
311 0.7% 95%  
312 0% 95%  
313 0.4% 95%  
314 0.1% 94%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0.2% 94%  
317 5% 94%  
318 0.3% 89%  
319 0.1% 88%  
320 0.1% 88%  
321 1.2% 88%  
322 2% 87%  
323 0.4% 85%  
324 0.3% 85%  
325 0.5% 85%  
326 0.2% 84% Majority
327 0.1% 84%  
328 1.0% 84%  
329 2% 83%  
330 2% 81%  
331 0.5% 79%  
332 0.4% 79%  
333 0.1% 78%  
334 0.5% 78%  
335 0.7% 78%  
336 0.6% 77%  
337 0.2% 76%  
338 0.3% 76%  
339 0.7% 76%  
340 2% 75%  
341 1.1% 73%  
342 1.3% 72%  
343 6% 70%  
344 0.1% 65%  
345 2% 65%  
346 0.9% 63%  
347 1.3% 62%  
348 6% 60%  
349 4% 54%  
350 0.4% 50% Median
351 0.2% 50%  
352 2% 50%  
353 3% 48%  
354 1.3% 45%  
355 0.2% 43%  
356 2% 43% Last Result
357 2% 41%  
358 7% 39%  
359 1.4% 32%  
360 3% 30%  
361 0.8% 27%  
362 0.6% 26%  
363 6% 25%  
364 5% 20%  
365 6% 15%  
366 0.4% 9%  
367 2% 9%  
368 0.6% 7%  
369 1.1% 7%  
370 0.2% 6%  
371 0.2% 5%  
372 0.2% 5%  
373 0.7% 5%  
374 0.2% 4%  
375 1.4% 4%  
376 1.3% 3%  
377 0.2% 1.2%  
378 0.1% 1.1%  
379 0.1% 1.0%  
380 0.3% 0.9%  
381 0.1% 0.6%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0.1% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.3% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0% 99.5%  
283 0% 99.4%  
284 0% 99.4%  
285 0% 99.4%  
286 0.2% 99.3%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0% 99.0%  
289 0.1% 98.9%  
290 0% 98.9%  
291 0.1% 98.9%  
292 0.9% 98.7%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0% 98%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.6% 97%  
298 0% 97%  
299 0.1% 97%  
300 0.2% 97%  
301 0.1% 96%  
302 0.1% 96%  
303 0.8% 96%  
304 0.1% 95%  
305 0.1% 95%  
306 0.5% 95%  
307 0.1% 95%  
308 0.4% 95%  
309 0.2% 94%  
310 0.1% 94%  
311 0.1% 94%  
312 3% 94%  
313 2% 91%  
314 0.1% 88%  
315 0.2% 88%  
316 0.5% 88%  
317 3% 88%  
318 0.2% 85%  
319 0.1% 85%  
320 0.5% 85%  
321 1.4% 84%  
322 0.1% 83%  
323 0.8% 83%  
324 1.1% 82%  
325 0.1% 81%  
326 2% 81% Majority
327 0.9% 79%  
328 0.9% 78%  
329 0.3% 77%  
330 0.3% 77%  
331 0.2% 76%  
332 2% 76%  
333 0.2% 74%  
334 0.7% 74%  
335 0.4% 73%  
336 6% 73%  
337 1.2% 66%  
338 0.7% 65%  
339 0.2% 64%  
340 0.2% 64%  
341 3% 64%  
342 7% 61%  
343 1.1% 55%  
344 3% 54%  
345 3% 51% Median
346 1.3% 49%  
347 0.7% 47%  
348 3% 47%  
349 2% 44%  
350 2% 42%  
351 1.3% 40%  
352 4% 39% Last Result
353 0.5% 35%  
354 4% 34%  
355 9% 31%  
356 1.5% 22%  
357 1.3% 20%  
358 0.8% 19%  
359 6% 18%  
360 5% 13%  
361 0.7% 8%  
362 0.1% 7%  
363 0.1% 7%  
364 0.3% 7%  
365 1.1% 6%  
366 0.4% 5%  
367 1.3% 5%  
368 0.2% 3%  
369 0.3% 3%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 1.4% 3%  
372 0.2% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 0.9%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0% 0.6%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.4% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0% 99.2%  
291 0% 99.2%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.6% 99.0%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 3% 97%  
305 2% 94%  
306 0.2% 92%  
307 0.2% 92%  
308 4% 92%  
309 0.7% 88%  
310 0.6% 87%  
311 0.3% 87%  
312 0.4% 86%  
313 0.8% 86%  
314 0.2% 85%  
315 0.7% 85%  
316 0.2% 84%  
317 0.4% 84%  
318 0.1% 84%  
319 0.3% 83%  
320 0.1% 83%  
321 0.3% 83%  
322 1.1% 83%  
323 0.5% 82%  
324 0.1% 81%  
325 0.3% 81%  
326 0.1% 81% Majority
327 0.5% 81%  
328 1.0% 80%  
329 0.5% 79% Last Result
330 2% 79%  
331 2% 77%  
332 0.4% 74%  
333 8% 74%  
334 4% 66%  
335 2% 62%  
336 0.1% 60%  
337 6% 60%  
338 3% 54%  
339 0.9% 51% Median
340 0.2% 50%  
341 4% 49%  
342 5% 46%  
343 2% 41%  
344 5% 40%  
345 0.6% 35%  
346 0.3% 34%  
347 0.5% 34%  
348 10% 33%  
349 4% 24%  
350 1.1% 20%  
351 3% 19%  
352 4% 16%  
353 0.6% 12%  
354 0.9% 12%  
355 0.5% 11%  
356 3% 10%  
357 0.3% 8%  
358 0.1% 8%  
359 1.1% 7%  
360 0.6% 6%  
361 1.2% 6%  
362 0.4% 5%  
363 0.3% 4%  
364 0.7% 4%  
365 1.5% 3%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0% 1.1%  
369 0.4% 1.1%  
370 0.1% 0.7%  
371 0% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0% 0.4%  
375 0.2% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.6%  
290 0.3% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.1%  
293 0.1% 99.0%  
294 0.1% 98.9%  
295 0.1% 98.8%  
296 1.3% 98.7%  
297 0.4% 97%  
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 1.5% 96%  
302 0.2% 95%  
303 0.9% 94%  
304 0.3% 94%  
305 0.8% 93%  
306 0.2% 92%  
307 0.8% 92%  
308 0.9% 91%  
309 3% 91%  
310 4% 88%  
311 0.5% 84%  
312 0.3% 83%  
313 5% 83% Last Result
314 0.3% 78%  
315 6% 77%  
316 9% 72%  
317 0.1% 63%  
318 2% 63%  
319 1.0% 61%  
320 4% 60%  
321 0.1% 57%  
322 1.2% 57%  
323 1.5% 55% Median
324 2% 54%  
325 4% 52%  
326 4% 48% Majority
327 3% 45%  
328 0.3% 41%  
329 0.3% 41%  
330 0.4% 41%  
331 3% 40%  
332 12% 38%  
333 1.1% 25%  
334 0.4% 24%  
335 1.3% 24%  
336 0.3% 22%  
337 0.4% 22%  
338 0.8% 22%  
339 0.6% 21%  
340 0.8% 20%  
341 0.8% 19%  
342 1.2% 19%  
343 0.1% 17%  
344 0.3% 17%  
345 0.1% 17%  
346 0.5% 17%  
347 0.2% 16%  
348 0.2% 16%  
349 0.5% 16%  
350 0.4% 16%  
351 0.3% 15%  
352 1.1% 15%  
353 0.3% 14%  
354 0% 13%  
355 4% 13%  
356 3% 10%  
357 0% 7%  
358 0.3% 7%  
359 0% 7%  
360 0.5% 7%  
361 0.1% 6%  
362 1.0% 6%  
363 1.0% 5%  
364 2% 4%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 0% 2%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.1% 2%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.1% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 1.1%  
374 0.1% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.9%  
376 0.1% 0.7%  
377 0% 0.6%  
378 0% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.4%  
286 0% 99.2%  
287 0.3% 99.2%  
288 0.2% 98.9%  
289 0.4% 98.7%  
290 0% 98%  
291 1.1% 98%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 1.2% 97%  
294 0.6% 96%  
295 1.0% 95%  
296 0.1% 94%  
297 0.3% 94%  
298 0.5% 94%  
299 0.3% 93%  
300 0.6% 93%  
301 0.9% 92%  
302 0.4% 91%  
303 0.9% 91%  
304 0.6% 90%  
305 3% 90%  
306 4% 86%  
307 5% 82%  
308 6% 77%  
309 0.4% 71% Last Result
310 0.8% 70%  
311 5% 70%  
312 2% 65%  
313 2% 63%  
314 0.9% 61%  
315 4% 60%  
316 0.2% 57%  
317 1.1% 56%  
318 4% 55% Median
319 7% 51%  
320 1.0% 45%  
321 1.2% 44%  
322 0.5% 42%  
323 1.0% 42%  
324 0.2% 41%  
325 6% 41%  
326 7% 34% Majority
327 5% 28%  
328 0.6% 23%  
329 0% 23%  
330 0.2% 23%  
331 0.3% 22%  
332 0.2% 22%  
333 1.2% 22%  
334 0.4% 21%  
335 1.0% 20%  
336 0.5% 19%  
337 1.1% 19%  
338 0.4% 18%  
339 0.5% 17%  
340 0.1% 17%  
341 0.6% 17%  
342 0.3% 16%  
343 0.2% 16%  
344 0.4% 15%  
345 0.1% 15%  
346 0.4% 15%  
347 0.1% 14%  
348 0.8% 14%  
349 0.2% 14%  
350 4% 13%  
351 2% 10%  
352 0.4% 7%  
353 0.1% 7%  
354 0% 7%  
355 0.1% 7%  
356 0.5% 7%  
357 0.3% 6%  
358 0.8% 6%  
359 1.0% 5%  
360 2% 4%  
361 0% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0% 1.1%  
368 0.1% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 1.0%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0% 0.5%  
374 0% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.5%  
256 0% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.3%  
260 0% 99.1%  
261 0.2% 99.1%  
262 0.1% 98.9%  
263 0.5% 98.9%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 2% 98%  
270 1.0% 96%  
271 0.8% 95%  
272 0.3% 94%  
273 0.4% 94%  
274 0% 93%  
275 0.1% 93%  
276 0.3% 93%  
277 0.2% 93%  
278 3% 93%  
279 4% 90%  
280 0.7% 87%  
281 0.3% 86%  
282 0.3% 86%  
283 0.1% 85%  
284 0.5% 85%  
285 0.1% 85%  
286 0.2% 85%  
287 0.5% 84%  
288 0.6% 84%  
289 0.4% 83%  
290 0.3% 83%  
291 0.2% 83%  
292 0.3% 82%  
293 1.5% 82%  
294 0.8% 81%  
295 0.5% 80%  
296 1.4% 79%  
297 0.1% 78%  
298 0.2% 78%  
299 0.3% 78%  
300 0% 77%  
301 1.1% 77%  
302 4% 76%  
303 7% 72%  
304 6% 65%  
305 0.4% 59%  
306 2% 59%  
307 0.3% 57%  
308 0.2% 57%  
309 2% 56% Median
310 7% 54%  
311 2% 47%  
312 2% 45%  
313 0.5% 42%  
314 3% 42%  
315 0.4% 39%  
316 2% 39%  
317 2% 37%  
318 5% 35%  
319 0.7% 30%  
320 0.2% 29%  
321 6% 29% Last Result
322 6% 23%  
323 7% 18%  
324 0.7% 11%  
325 0.5% 10%  
326 0.8% 10% Majority
327 0.2% 9%  
328 1.1% 9%  
329 0.5% 8%  
330 0.4% 7%  
331 0.6% 7%  
332 0.2% 6%  
333 0.1% 6%  
334 0.6% 6%  
335 1.0% 5%  
336 0.4% 4%  
337 1.1% 4%  
338 0.1% 3%  
339 1.1% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.4%  
256 0.2% 99.3%  
257 0% 99.1%  
258 0.5% 99.1%  
259 1.4% 98.5%  
260 0.4% 97%  
261 0.1% 97%  
262 0.3% 97%  
263 1.2% 96%  
264 1.3% 95%  
265 0.4% 94%  
266 0.1% 93%  
267 0.1% 93%  
268 0.7% 93%  
269 5% 92%  
270 5% 87%  
271 1.1% 82%  
272 1.3% 81%  
273 2% 80%  
274 9% 78%  
275 4% 69%  
276 0.2% 66%  
277 4% 65%  
278 1.3% 61% Last Result
279 2% 60%  
280 2% 58%  
281 3% 56%  
282 0.8% 53% Median
283 3% 53%  
284 2% 50%  
285 1.4% 48%  
286 1.1% 46%  
287 9% 45%  
288 0.7% 37%  
289 0.1% 36%  
290 0.5% 36%  
291 0.7% 35%  
292 1.0% 35%  
293 5% 34%  
294 2% 28%  
295 0.3% 26%  
296 2% 26%  
297 0.3% 24%  
298 0.2% 24%  
299 0.1% 24%  
300 0.5% 23%  
301 2% 23%  
302 1.2% 21%  
303 0.6% 20%  
304 0.1% 19%  
305 0.7% 19%  
306 0.9% 18%  
307 2% 17%  
308 0.1% 16%  
309 0.4% 16%  
310 0.1% 15%  
311 0.4% 15%  
312 3% 15%  
313 0.1% 12%  
314 0.3% 12%  
315 0.1% 12%  
316 2% 11%  
317 3% 9%  
318 0.1% 6%  
319 0% 6%  
320 0.3% 6%  
321 0.2% 6%  
322 0.1% 5%  
323 0.4% 5%  
324 0.4% 5%  
325 0.1% 4%  
326 0.6% 4% Majority
327 0.1% 4%  
328 0% 4%  
329 0.3% 4%  
330 0.1% 3%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0% 2%  
337 0.9% 2%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 1.1%  
341 0% 1.0%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.8%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.6%  
347 0% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.5%  
350 0.3% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.5%  
251 0% 99.5%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.2% 99.3%  
255 0% 99.1%  
256 0.2% 99.1%  
257 0% 98.9%  
258 0.6% 98.8%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 2% 98%  
266 0.9% 96%  
267 1.1% 95%  
268 0% 94%  
269 0.5% 94%  
270 0.3% 93%  
271 0% 93%  
272 0.1% 93%  
273 2% 93%  
274 4% 90%  
275 0.1% 87%  
276 1.0% 86%  
277 0.5% 86%  
278 0.3% 85%  
279 0.4% 85%  
280 0.4% 84%  
281 0.4% 84%  
282 0.2% 83%  
283 0.4% 83%  
284 0.2% 83%  
285 0.2% 83%  
286 0.1% 83%  
287 0.3% 82%  
288 2% 82%  
289 0.7% 80%  
290 0.5% 80%  
291 1.1% 79%  
292 0.3% 78%  
293 0.2% 78%  
294 1.4% 78%  
295 0.4% 76%  
296 2% 76%  
297 12% 74%  
298 3% 62%  
299 0.3% 59%  
300 0.2% 59%  
301 2% 59%  
302 5% 57%  
303 2% 52%  
304 3% 51% Median
305 2% 48%  
306 1.4% 46%  
307 2% 45%  
308 0.5% 42%  
309 2% 42%  
310 0.7% 39%  
311 2% 39%  
312 0.4% 37%  
313 8% 37%  
314 6% 28%  
315 0.4% 23%  
316 5% 22%  
317 0.5% 17% Last Result
318 0.4% 17%  
319 6% 16%  
320 0.8% 10%  
321 0.8% 9%  
322 0.6% 9%  
323 0.5% 8%  
324 0.8% 8%  
325 0.2% 7%  
326 0.8% 7% Majority
327 0.4% 6%  
328 0.3% 5%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.3% 4%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 1.1% 2%  
335 0.1% 1.2%  
336 0.1% 1.1%  
337 0% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.3% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0.2% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.6%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0% 99.4%  
250 0.3% 99.3%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0.2% 99.0%  
253 0.4% 98.8%  
254 1.3% 98%  
255 1.2% 97%  
256 0.5% 96%  
257 0.2% 95%  
258 0.4% 95%  
259 0.1% 95%  
260 1.3% 95%  
261 0.6% 93%  
262 1.3% 93%  
263 0.8% 91%  
264 5% 91%  
265 5% 85%  
266 6% 80%  
267 0.5% 74%  
268 0.9% 74%  
269 3% 73%  
270 1.4% 70%  
271 7% 68%  
272 3% 61%  
273 2% 59%  
274 0.2% 57% Last Result
275 2% 57%  
276 3% 55%  
277 2% 52% Median
278 1.5% 50%  
279 0.2% 49%  
280 3% 49%  
281 6% 46%  
282 1.4% 40%  
283 3% 38%  
284 0.2% 35%  
285 0.5% 35%  
286 5% 35%  
287 1.3% 30%  
288 2% 28%  
289 1.3% 26%  
290 0.4% 25%  
291 0.4% 24%  
292 0.3% 24%  
293 0.8% 24%  
294 0.5% 23%  
295 0.3% 22%  
296 0.5% 22%  
297 1.3% 22%  
298 1.0% 20%  
299 2% 19%  
300 0.3% 18%  
301 1.3% 17%  
302 0.1% 16%  
303 0.5% 16%  
304 0.4% 16%  
305 0.4% 15%  
306 0.1% 15%  
307 2% 15%  
308 0.8% 13%  
309 0.2% 12%  
310 0.2% 12%  
311 0.3% 11%  
312 5% 11%  
313 0.1% 6%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 0.3% 6%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.2% 5%  
318 0.4% 5%  
319 0.2% 5%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 0.2% 4%  
322 0.5% 4%  
323 0.1% 4%  
324 0.2% 4%  
325 0% 3%  
326 0.2% 3% Majority
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0% 2%  
331 0% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 1.0% 2%  
334 0% 1.1%  
335 0% 1.1%  
336 0% 1.1%  
337 0.3% 1.1%  
338 0.1% 0.8%  
339 0% 0.6%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0% 0.6%  
342 0% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0% 0.5%  
345 0.3% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.2% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0% 99.3%  
260 0.3% 99.3%  
261 0.5% 99.0%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 1.2% 98%  
266 0.8% 97%  
267 0.1% 96%  
268 0.4% 96%  
269 2% 95%  
270 1.0% 94%  
271 0.5% 93%  
272 2% 92%  
273 0.6% 90%  
274 0.7% 89%  
275 0.6% 89%  
276 0.5% 88%  
277 4% 88%  
278 3% 84%  
279 1.3% 81%  
280 4% 80%  
281 10% 76%  
282 0.8% 67%  
283 0.2% 66%  
284 0.6% 66%  
285 5% 65%  
286 3% 60%  
287 5% 57%  
288 2% 53% Median
289 2% 51%  
290 2% 49%  
291 1.4% 47%  
292 5% 46%  
293 0.2% 41%  
294 4% 40%  
295 2% 36%  
296 8% 34%  
297 0.7% 26%  
298 2% 25%  
299 3% 24%  
300 0.1% 21%  
301 0.9% 21% Last Result
302 0.7% 20%  
303 0.1% 19%  
304 0.3% 19%  
305 0.1% 19%  
306 0.6% 19%  
307 0.2% 18%  
308 1.3% 18%  
309 0.1% 17%  
310 0.2% 17%  
311 0.1% 16%  
312 0.5% 16%  
313 0.2% 16%  
314 0.5% 16%  
315 0.8% 15%  
316 0.2% 14%  
317 0.4% 14%  
318 0.3% 14%  
319 0.7% 13%  
320 0.6% 13%  
321 4% 12%  
322 0.2% 8%  
323 0.1% 8%  
324 2% 8%  
325 3% 6%  
326 0.2% 3% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0% 0.9%  
338 0% 0.8%  
339 0% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.8%  
341 0.4% 0.7%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.3% 99.3%  
255 0.2% 99.0%  
256 0.1% 98.8%  
257 0.7% 98.7%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.2% 97%  
260 1.2% 97%  
261 1.4% 96%  
262 0.2% 95%  
263 0.2% 94%  
264 0.8% 94%  
265 0.6% 93%  
266 1.1% 93%  
267 0.7% 92%  
268 3% 91%  
269 0.6% 89%  
270 0.4% 88%  
271 0.6% 88%  
272 2% 87%  
273 9% 85%  
274 1.0% 76%  
275 2% 75%  
276 5% 73%  
277 2% 68%  
278 0.7% 66%  
279 1.0% 65%  
280 6% 64%  
281 3% 58%  
282 3% 55%  
283 2% 52% Median
284 2% 49%  
285 5% 48%  
286 6% 43%  
287 0.2% 37%  
288 1.4% 37%  
289 0.9% 36%  
290 8% 35%  
291 4% 27%  
292 0.4% 23%  
293 0.6% 23%  
294 1.3% 22%  
295 0.4% 21%  
296 0% 20%  
297 0.4% 20% Last Result
298 0.6% 20%  
299 0.5% 19%  
300 0.3% 19%  
301 0.1% 18%  
302 0.3% 18%  
303 1.3% 18%  
304 0.3% 17%  
305 0.1% 16%  
306 0.6% 16%  
307 0.3% 16%  
308 0.2% 15%  
309 0.2% 15%  
310 0.2% 15%  
311 1.0% 15%  
312 0.2% 14%  
313 0.2% 13%  
314 0.5% 13%  
315 0.1% 13%  
316 4% 13%  
317 0.9% 9%  
318 0.2% 8%  
319 0.4% 8%  
320 4% 7%  
321 1.0% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0% 2%  
325 0% 2%  
326 0% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0% 0.9%  
333 0% 0.8%  
334 0% 0.8%  
335 0.1% 0.8%  
336 0.3% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.8%  
214 0% 99.8%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.2% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.4%  
223 0.1% 99.3%  
224 0% 99.2%  
225 0% 99.2%  
226 0.4% 99.2%  
227 0.7% 98.8%  
228 2% 98%  
229 1.2% 97%  
230 0.2% 95%  
231 1.3% 95%  
232 0.3% 94%  
233 0.4% 93%  
234 0.5% 93%  
235 0.3% 93%  
236 0.3% 92%  
237 2% 92%  
238 13% 90%  
239 4% 77%  
240 6% 73%  
241 4% 67%  
242 5% 63%  
243 0.5% 59%  
244 0.5% 58%  
245 0.3% 58%  
246 2% 57%  
247 0.3% 56% Median
248 4% 55%  
249 6% 51%  
250 2% 45%  
251 6% 43%  
252 1.4% 37%  
253 5% 35%  
254 0.4% 30%  
255 0.1% 30%  
256 0.6% 30%  
257 1.2% 29%  
258 0.2% 28%  
259 0.4% 28%  
260 1.5% 28%  
261 0.8% 26%  
262 1.5% 25%  
263 0.3% 24%  
264 2% 23%  
265 1.0% 21%  
266 0.4% 20% Last Result
267 0.6% 20%  
268 0.6% 19%  
269 0.2% 19%  
270 2% 18%  
271 0.5% 17%  
272 0.5% 16%  
273 0.6% 16%  
274 0.5% 15%  
275 1.4% 15%  
276 2% 13%  
277 0.1% 11%  
278 0.1% 11%  
279 0.5% 11%  
280 0.1% 11%  
281 2% 11%  
282 0.1% 9%  
283 3% 9%  
284 0.2% 6%  
285 0.2% 5%  
286 0.8% 5%  
287 0.1% 4%  
288 0.3% 4%  
289 0.1% 4%  
290 0.1% 4%  
291 0.2% 4%  
292 0.1% 4%  
293 0.2% 4%  
294 0.1% 3%  
295 1.1% 3%  
296 0.7% 2%  
297 0.1% 1.5%  
298 0% 1.4%  
299 0.4% 1.4%  
300 0% 1.0%  
301 0% 1.0%  
302 0% 1.0%  
303 0% 0.9%  
304 0.1% 0.9%  
305 0% 0.8%  
306 0% 0.8%  
307 0.2% 0.8%  
308 0% 0.6%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0% 0.5%  
311 0% 0.5%  
312 0% 0.5%  
313 0.2% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
203 0% 100%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.8%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.7%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0.1% 99.5%  
217 0.3% 99.5%  
218 0.1% 99.2%  
219 0.1% 99.1%  
220 0.3% 99.0%  
221 0.1% 98.7%  
222 0.5% 98.6%  
223 3% 98%  
224 0.6% 95%  
225 0.8% 95%  
226 0.4% 94%  
227 0.4% 93%  
228 0.2% 93%  
229 0.3% 93%  
230 2% 93%  
231 0.8% 90%  
232 6% 90%  
233 14% 83%  
234 0.9% 69%  
235 2% 68%  
236 3% 66%  
237 0.9% 63%  
238 4% 62%  
239 0.2% 58%  
240 2% 58%  
241 5% 56%  
242 0.4% 50% Median
243 0.7% 50%  
244 3% 49%  
245 7% 46%  
246 7% 39%  
247 2% 32%  
248 0.6% 30%  
249 0.1% 30%  
250 0.3% 30%  
251 0.2% 29%  
252 0.6% 29%  
253 1.2% 28%  
254 0.5% 27%  
255 1.5% 27%  
256 2% 25%  
257 0.1% 23%  
258 2% 23%  
259 0.9% 21%  
260 0.5% 21%  
261 1.0% 20%  
262 1.4% 19% Last Result
263 0.1% 18%  
264 0.8% 18%  
265 0.2% 17%  
266 0.8% 17%  
267 0.2% 16%  
268 0.6% 16%  
269 0.2% 15%  
270 0.7% 15%  
271 1.0% 14%  
272 2% 13%  
273 0.2% 11%  
274 0.3% 11%  
275 0.2% 11%  
276 2% 11%  
277 0.1% 9%  
278 4% 9%  
279 0.1% 5%  
280 0.2% 5%  
281 0.1% 5%  
282 0.4% 5%  
283 0.3% 4%  
284 0.1% 4%  
285 0.2% 4%  
286 0.1% 4%  
287 0.2% 4%  
288 0.1% 4%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.2% 3%  
291 1.5% 3%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.1% 1.5%  
294 0.4% 1.4%  
295 0% 1.0%  
296 0% 1.0%  
297 0% 1.0%  
298 0% 1.0%  
299 0.2% 0.9%  
300 0% 0.8%  
301 0% 0.8%  
302 0.1% 0.8%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0% 0.5%  
305 0% 0.5%  
306 0% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.5%  
308 0.2% 0.5%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations