Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 18–19 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.4% 40.0–42.9% 39.6–43.3% 39.2–43.7% 38.5–44.4%
Labour Party 40.0% 33.3% 31.9–34.8% 31.5–35.1% 31.2–35.5% 30.5–36.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.1% 9.3–11.1% 9.0–11.3% 8.8–11.6% 8.4–12.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.4%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.8% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 333 317–350 313–355 311–362 305–369
Labour Party 262 218 204–232 195–236 193–237 187–244
Liberal Democrats 12 24 20–29 18–29 17–30 14–31
Scottish National Party 35 50 47–54 45–56 42–56 41–57
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 3–6 3–7 2–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0% 99.6%  
304 0% 99.5%  
305 0.2% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.3%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.4% 98.9%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 2% 97%  
313 0.7% 95%  
314 0.9% 95%  
315 2% 94%  
316 1.0% 92%  
317 2% 91% Last Result
318 0.6% 89%  
319 1.2% 88%  
320 2% 87%  
321 0.7% 85%  
322 3% 85%  
323 3% 81%  
324 0.9% 78%  
325 4% 77%  
326 0.7% 74% Majority
327 4% 73%  
328 1.3% 69%  
329 8% 68%  
330 4% 60%  
331 0.4% 57%  
332 6% 56%  
333 6% 50% Median
334 8% 44%  
335 3% 36%  
336 4% 33%  
337 0.5% 29%  
338 5% 29%  
339 0.6% 24%  
340 0.4% 24%  
341 2% 23%  
342 1.1% 21%  
343 1.4% 20%  
344 0.7% 19%  
345 0.8% 18%  
346 2% 17%  
347 2% 15%  
348 1.2% 13%  
349 1.2% 12%  
350 0.8% 11%  
351 0.3% 10%  
352 0.2% 9%  
353 3% 9%  
354 0.6% 7%  
355 2% 6%  
356 0.1% 4%  
357 0.2% 4%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.4% 3%  
361 0.2% 3%  
362 0.7% 3%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.1% 1.4%  
366 0% 1.3%  
367 0% 1.2%  
368 0.7% 1.2%  
369 0.3% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.2% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0.1% 99.4%  
189 0.1% 99.4%  
190 0.5% 99.2%  
191 0.1% 98.7%  
192 0.1% 98.6%  
193 2% 98.5%  
194 0.5% 96%  
195 1.1% 96%  
196 0.3% 95%  
197 0.1% 94%  
198 0.4% 94%  
199 0.2% 94%  
200 0.4% 94%  
201 0.3% 93%  
202 0.5% 93%  
203 2% 92%  
204 3% 91%  
205 0.8% 88%  
206 1.4% 87%  
207 1.3% 86%  
208 3% 85%  
209 2% 81%  
210 0.8% 79%  
211 0.2% 78%  
212 0.6% 78%  
213 4% 77%  
214 0.2% 73%  
215 3% 73%  
216 8% 69%  
217 2% 61%  
218 10% 59% Median
219 8% 49%  
220 0.2% 41%  
221 1.0% 41%  
222 0.5% 40%  
223 5% 40%  
224 8% 35%  
225 8% 27%  
226 3% 19%  
227 0.7% 16%  
228 0.8% 15%  
229 2% 15%  
230 1.1% 13%  
231 1.0% 12%  
232 0.8% 11%  
233 0.4% 10%  
234 0.3% 9%  
235 2% 9%  
236 3% 7%  
237 2% 4%  
238 0.5% 2%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0% 1.3%  
241 0.4% 1.3%  
242 0.1% 0.9%  
243 0.4% 0.9%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.4%  
16 1.2% 98.7%  
17 1.3% 98%  
18 3% 96%  
19 2% 93%  
20 10% 91%  
21 9% 81%  
22 4% 72%  
23 12% 68%  
24 6% 56% Median
25 11% 50%  
26 5% 39%  
27 13% 34%  
28 7% 21%  
29 11% 14%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 0.2% 96%  
44 0% 96%  
45 2% 96%  
46 0.8% 94%  
47 12% 93%  
48 12% 81%  
49 4% 69%  
50 16% 65% Median
51 19% 49%  
52 14% 30%  
53 1.3% 16%  
54 6% 14%  
55 1.0% 9%  
56 5% 8%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 92% 100% Last Result, Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 1.2% 99.8%  
3 16% 98.6%  
4 20% 82% Last Result
5 55% 62% Median
6 4% 7%  
7 0.2% 3%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 386 100% 373–405 368–410 366–415 360–420
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 381 100% 369–400 364–405 362–410 355–415
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 357 99.8% 342–374 338–381 336–384 329–392
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 337 84% 322–355 318–360 316–367 309–374
Conservative Party 317 333 74% 317–350 313–355 311–362 305–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 297 0.5% 280–313 275–317 269–319 261–325
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 293 0.2% 275–308 270–312 264–314 256–320
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 273 0% 256–288 249–292 247–293 238–300
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 269 0% 252–284 245–287 242–288 235–296
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 249 0% 230–261 225–266 220–268 215–275
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 245 0% 225–257 220–262 215–264 210–270
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 223 0% 209–236 200–241 198–242 192–248
Labour Party 262 218 0% 204–232 195–236 193–237 187–244

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.8%  
356 0% 99.8% Last Result
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.7%  
359 0.2% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0% 99.4%  
362 0.1% 99.3%  
363 0.3% 99.2%  
364 0.4% 98.9%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.8% 98%  
367 0.9% 97%  
368 1.3% 96%  
369 2% 95%  
370 0.3% 93%  
371 1.1% 92%  
372 0.8% 91%  
373 0.6% 90%  
374 1.3% 90%  
375 2% 88%  
376 0.5% 87%  
377 2% 86%  
378 2% 84%  
379 3% 82%  
380 1.0% 79%  
381 3% 78%  
382 7% 75%  
383 0.5% 68%  
384 9% 68%  
385 9% 59%  
386 2% 50%  
387 3% 48%  
388 4% 45% Median
389 7% 41%  
390 4% 34%  
391 0.6% 30%  
392 5% 30%  
393 0.5% 25%  
394 0.8% 24%  
395 0.8% 24%  
396 1.1% 23%  
397 2% 22%  
398 1.2% 19%  
399 2% 18%  
400 0.6% 16%  
401 1.1% 15%  
402 2% 14%  
403 0.6% 13%  
404 0.5% 12%  
405 3% 11%  
406 2% 9%  
407 0.2% 7%  
408 0.4% 7%  
409 0.8% 6%  
410 2% 6%  
411 0.6% 4%  
412 0.2% 4%  
413 0% 3%  
414 0.2% 3%  
415 0.6% 3%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.5% 2%  
418 0% 2%  
419 0.9% 1.5%  
420 0.1% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0.2% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8% Last Result
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0.2% 99.7%  
355 0.2% 99.6%  
356 0% 99.4%  
357 0% 99.4%  
358 0.3% 99.3%  
359 0.1% 99.1%  
360 0.8% 98.9%  
361 0.3% 98%  
362 0.7% 98%  
363 0.9% 97%  
364 2% 96%  
365 1.3% 94%  
366 1.3% 93%  
367 0.8% 91%  
368 0.5% 91%  
369 1.2% 90%  
370 1.0% 89%  
371 1.0% 88%  
372 0.8% 87%  
373 2% 86%  
374 5% 84%  
375 3% 79%  
376 1.4% 77%  
377 4% 75%  
378 0.5% 71%  
379 12% 71%  
380 2% 59%  
381 10% 57%  
382 0.8% 47%  
383 3% 46% Median
384 1.3% 42%  
385 7% 41%  
386 4% 34%  
387 4% 30%  
388 0.8% 26%  
389 2% 25%  
390 0.8% 24%  
391 0.8% 23%  
392 2% 22%  
393 1.3% 20%  
394 0.9% 18%  
395 0.8% 17%  
396 2% 17%  
397 2% 15%  
398 2% 13%  
399 0.5% 12%  
400 3% 11%  
401 1.4% 9%  
402 0.5% 7%  
403 0.3% 7%  
404 0.8% 7%  
405 2% 6%  
406 0.7% 4%  
407 0.1% 4%  
408 0.1% 3%  
409 0.5% 3%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.7% 2%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0% 2%  
414 1.0% 2%  
415 0.1% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0% 99.8% Majority
327 0% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
330 0.2% 99.5%  
331 0.1% 99.2%  
332 0.3% 99.2%  
333 0.4% 98.9%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.3% 98%  
337 2% 97%  
338 1.2% 95%  
339 1.0% 94%  
340 0.6% 93%  
341 2% 93%  
342 1.4% 90%  
343 2% 89%  
344 1.5% 87%  
345 0.7% 86%  
346 3% 85%  
347 2% 82%  
348 2% 80%  
349 4% 78%  
350 4% 75%  
351 2% 71%  
352 2% 69%  
353 5% 67%  
354 0.6% 62%  
355 3% 61%  
356 6% 58%  
357 9% 53% Median
358 5% 44%  
359 2% 38%  
360 1.2% 37%  
361 2% 35%  
362 6% 34%  
363 4% 28%  
364 1.1% 24%  
365 0.9% 23%  
366 5% 22%  
367 1.0% 17%  
368 0.8% 16%  
369 0.4% 15%  
370 2% 15%  
371 0.3% 13%  
372 1.0% 13%  
373 2% 12%  
374 3% 10%  
375 0.8% 7%  
376 0.1% 7%  
377 0.5% 6%  
378 0.5% 6%  
379 0.2% 6%  
380 0% 5%  
381 0.5% 5%  
382 2% 5%  
383 0% 3%  
384 0.4% 3%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.7% 2%  
387 0.1% 1.1%  
388 0% 1.0%  
389 0.3% 1.0%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0% 0.6%  
392 0.3% 0.6%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0% 99.6%  
309 0.1% 99.5%  
310 0.3% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.2% 98.9%  
313 0.5% 98.8%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 1.1% 98%  
317 2% 97%  
318 2% 95%  
319 1.1% 93%  
320 0.8% 92%  
321 1.0% 91% Last Result
322 1.5% 90%  
323 0.7% 89%  
324 0.9% 88%  
325 3% 87%  
326 3% 84% Majority
327 3% 81%  
328 0.8% 78%  
329 0.8% 77%  
330 4% 77%  
331 2% 73%  
332 3% 71%  
333 1.2% 69%  
334 5% 67%  
335 6% 62%  
336 0.8% 57%  
337 12% 56%  
338 6% 44% Median
339 1.2% 37%  
340 7% 36%  
341 0.4% 29%  
342 1.1% 29%  
343 4% 28%  
344 0.3% 24%  
345 0.4% 24%  
346 2% 23%  
347 1.2% 21%  
348 2% 20%  
349 1.0% 18%  
350 0.6% 17%  
351 3% 17%  
352 2% 14%  
353 0.2% 11%  
354 0.5% 11%  
355 0.9% 11%  
356 0.6% 10%  
357 0.1% 9%  
358 2% 9%  
359 0.5% 7%  
360 2% 6%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 0.1% 4%  
363 0.4% 4%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.5% 3%  
367 1.0% 3%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0.1% 1.4%  
371 0% 1.3%  
372 0.1% 1.2%  
373 0.6% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 0.5%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.7%  
303 0% 99.6%  
304 0% 99.5%  
305 0.2% 99.5%  
306 0.3% 99.3%  
307 0.1% 99.0%  
308 0.4% 98.9%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 2% 97%  
313 0.7% 95%  
314 0.9% 95%  
315 2% 94%  
316 1.0% 92%  
317 2% 91% Last Result
318 0.6% 89%  
319 1.2% 88%  
320 2% 87%  
321 0.7% 85%  
322 3% 85%  
323 3% 81%  
324 0.9% 78%  
325 4% 77%  
326 0.7% 74% Majority
327 4% 73%  
328 1.3% 69%  
329 8% 68%  
330 4% 60%  
331 0.4% 57%  
332 6% 56%  
333 6% 50% Median
334 8% 44%  
335 3% 36%  
336 4% 33%  
337 0.5% 29%  
338 5% 29%  
339 0.6% 24%  
340 0.4% 24%  
341 2% 23%  
342 1.1% 21%  
343 1.4% 20%  
344 0.7% 19%  
345 0.8% 18%  
346 2% 17%  
347 2% 15%  
348 1.2% 13%  
349 1.2% 12%  
350 0.8% 11%  
351 0.3% 10%  
352 0.2% 9%  
353 3% 9%  
354 0.6% 7%  
355 2% 6%  
356 0.1% 4%  
357 0.2% 4%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.4% 3%  
361 0.2% 3%  
362 0.7% 3%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.1% 1.4%  
366 0% 1.3%  
367 0% 1.2%  
368 0.7% 1.2%  
369 0.3% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0.3% 99.7%  
262 0.6% 99.5%  
263 0.1% 98.9%  
264 0% 98.8%  
265 0.1% 98.7%  
266 0.3% 98.7%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.5% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 0% 96%  
275 2% 96%  
276 0.7% 94%  
277 2% 93%  
278 0.1% 91%  
279 0.7% 91%  
280 0.6% 90%  
281 0.4% 89%  
282 1.1% 89%  
283 3% 88%  
284 1.1% 85%  
285 2% 84%  
286 0.8% 82%  
287 1.0% 81%  
288 0.5% 80%  
289 3% 80%  
290 0.5% 77%  
291 0.4% 76%  
292 5% 76%  
293 0.6% 71%  
294 4% 71%  
295 3% 67%  
296 7% 64%  
297 6% 56% Median
298 6% 50%  
299 0.7% 44%  
300 4% 43%  
301 8% 40%  
302 0.7% 32%  
303 4% 31%  
304 0.9% 27%  
305 4% 26%  
306 0.9% 23%  
307 4% 22%  
308 2% 18%  
309 2% 16%  
310 0.9% 14%  
311 0.9% 13%  
312 0.9% 12%  
313 2% 11% Last Result
314 0.3% 9%  
315 2% 8%  
316 0.9% 6%  
317 1.1% 5%  
318 1.5% 4%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.1% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 1.1%  
324 0.3% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.7%  
326 0% 0.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.3% 99.8%  
257 0.6% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 98.9%  
259 0.1% 98.8%  
260 0.1% 98.7%  
261 0.1% 98.7%  
262 0.1% 98.5%  
263 0.7% 98%  
264 0.9% 98%  
265 0.1% 97%  
266 0.4% 97%  
267 0.4% 96%  
268 0.1% 96%  
269 0.1% 96%  
270 2% 96%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 2% 93%  
273 0.1% 91%  
274 0.9% 91%  
275 0.6% 90%  
276 0.6% 89%  
277 0.1% 89%  
278 1.4% 89%  
279 2% 87%  
280 3% 86%  
281 1.1% 83%  
282 1.3% 82%  
283 0.8% 81%  
284 3% 80%  
285 0.8% 77%  
286 0.3% 76%  
287 4% 76%  
288 0.9% 72%  
289 0.6% 71%  
290 7% 71%  
291 1.1% 64%  
292 7% 63% Median
293 12% 56%  
294 0.6% 44%  
295 5% 43%  
296 5% 38%  
297 1.3% 32%  
298 2% 31%  
299 2% 29%  
300 3% 27%  
301 0.9% 24%  
302 0.9% 23%  
303 3% 22%  
304 5% 19%  
305 1.0% 14%  
306 1.2% 13%  
307 0.7% 12%  
308 2% 11%  
309 0.7% 10% Last Result
310 0.8% 9%  
311 1.0% 8%  
312 2% 7%  
313 2% 5%  
314 0.7% 3%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.6% 2%  
317 0.1% 1.4%  
318 0.2% 1.3%  
319 0.3% 1.0%  
320 0.3% 0.8%  
321 0% 0.5%  
322 0% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.3% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.5%  
240 0.1% 99.4%  
241 0.3% 99.3%  
242 0.1% 99.0%  
243 0% 98.9%  
244 0.7% 98.9%  
245 0.3% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.2% 98%  
248 2% 97%  
249 0.9% 96%  
250 0.1% 95%  
251 0.1% 95%  
252 0.5% 95%  
253 0.5% 94%  
254 0.1% 94%  
255 0.9% 93%  
256 3% 93%  
257 0.7% 90%  
258 2% 89%  
259 0.9% 88%  
260 0.5% 87%  
261 1.4% 86%  
262 0.8% 85%  
263 0.8% 84%  
264 3% 83%  
265 3% 80%  
266 0.8% 77%  
267 4% 76%  
268 6% 72%  
269 2% 66%  
270 0.4% 65%  
271 3% 64%  
272 5% 62%  
273 9% 56% Median
274 5% 47%  
275 3% 42%  
276 1.2% 39%  
277 5% 38%  
278 2% 33%  
279 1.4% 31%  
280 4% 29%  
281 3% 25%  
282 2% 22%  
283 2% 19%  
284 3% 18%  
285 0.6% 15%  
286 2% 14%  
287 1.2% 12%  
288 2% 11%  
289 2% 10%  
290 0.4% 7%  
291 0.8% 7%  
292 1.3% 6%  
293 2% 5%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.3% 1.4%  
298 0.2% 1.0%  
299 0% 0.8%  
300 0.3% 0.8%  
301 0% 0.5% Last Result
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.2% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.2% 99.7%  
235 0.2% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.3%  
237 0.1% 99.1%  
238 0.1% 98.9%  
239 0.5% 98.8%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 0.3% 98%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 2% 97%  
244 0.5% 96%  
245 0.6% 95%  
246 0.3% 95%  
247 0.5% 94%  
248 0.3% 94%  
249 0.1% 94%  
250 0.5% 93%  
251 3% 93%  
252 0.6% 90%  
253 0.2% 89%  
254 0.7% 89%  
255 2% 89%  
256 0.6% 86%  
257 0.9% 86%  
258 1.4% 85%  
259 2% 83%  
260 3% 81%  
261 0.9% 78%  
262 0.5% 77%  
263 4% 77%  
264 8% 73%  
265 0.3% 65%  
266 3% 65%  
267 8% 62%  
268 0.9% 54% Median
269 11% 53%  
270 2% 42%  
271 1.0% 40%  
272 5% 39%  
273 3% 34%  
274 2% 31%  
275 3% 29%  
276 3% 26%  
277 3% 23%  
278 0.7% 20%  
279 0.9% 19%  
280 1.1% 18%  
281 4% 17%  
282 1.2% 13%  
283 0.4% 12%  
284 1.3% 11%  
285 2% 10%  
286 2% 8%  
287 1.1% 6%  
288 2% 5%  
289 0.1% 2%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.3% 2%  
292 0.5% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.2%  
294 0% 0.9%  
295 0.4% 0.9%  
296 0% 0.5%  
297 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
298 0% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.1% 99.5%  
216 0.9% 99.5%  
217 0.1% 98.5%  
218 0.1% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.7% 98%  
221 0.5% 97%  
222 0.1% 97%  
223 0.1% 97%  
224 0.7% 96%  
225 2% 96%  
226 0.8% 94%  
227 0.3% 93%  
228 0.7% 93%  
229 1.1% 92%  
230 3% 91%  
231 0.3% 89%  
232 2% 88%  
233 0.2% 87%  
234 2% 86%  
235 2% 84%  
236 0.6% 82%  
237 0.6% 82%  
238 3% 81%  
239 0.7% 78%  
240 0.6% 77%  
241 2% 77%  
242 1.4% 75%  
243 4% 74%  
244 4% 70%  
245 7% 66%  
246 1.2% 59%  
247 4% 58% Median
248 0.9% 54%  
249 10% 53%  
250 2% 43%  
251 12% 41%  
252 0.6% 29%  
253 4% 29%  
254 1.2% 25%  
255 4% 24%  
256 4% 19%  
257 2% 16%  
258 0.3% 14%  
259 1.4% 14%  
260 0.8% 12%  
261 1.4% 11%  
262 0.6% 10%  
263 0.9% 9%  
264 0.8% 8%  
265 2% 8%  
266 2% 6%  
267 0.9% 4%  
268 0.7% 3%  
269 1.1% 2%  
270 0.1% 1.1%  
271 0.1% 1.0%  
272 0.3% 0.9%  
273 0% 0.7%  
274 0% 0.6%  
275 0.2% 0.6%  
276 0.2% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2% Last Result
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0.2% 99.6%  
211 0.8% 99.4%  
212 0.2% 98.6%  
213 0.5% 98%  
214 0.1% 98%  
215 1.0% 98%  
216 0.2% 97%  
217 0.1% 97%  
218 0.2% 97%  
219 0.7% 96%  
220 1.4% 96%  
221 0.7% 94%  
222 0.5% 94%  
223 0.4% 93%  
224 1.3% 93%  
225 3% 91%  
226 0.4% 89%  
227 0.7% 88%  
228 0.1% 87%  
229 3% 87%  
230 0.8% 85%  
231 1.2% 84%  
232 1.4% 83%  
233 3% 81%  
234 1.2% 79%  
235 0.5% 77%  
236 1.0% 77%  
237 0.6% 76%  
238 5% 75%  
239 1.1% 71%  
240 4% 70%  
241 7% 65%  
242 4% 59% Median
243 3% 55%  
244 2% 52%  
245 9% 50%  
246 9% 41%  
247 0.5% 32%  
248 7% 32%  
249 2% 25%  
250 2% 23%  
251 2% 20%  
252 2% 18%  
253 2% 15%  
254 0.7% 14%  
255 1.1% 13%  
256 2% 12%  
257 0.7% 10%  
258 1.0% 10%  
259 0.9% 9%  
260 0.4% 8%  
261 2% 7%  
262 1.5% 5%  
263 0.8% 4%  
264 1.2% 3%  
265 0.6% 2%  
266 0.1% 1.2%  
267 0.3% 1.0%  
268 0.1% 0.8%  
269 0.1% 0.7%  
270 0.2% 0.6%  
271 0.2% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.3%  
273 0% 0.3%  
274 0% 0.2% Last Result
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0.1% 100%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.3% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.5%  
193 0.2% 99.4%  
194 0.2% 99.2%  
195 0.2% 99.0%  
196 0.2% 98.8%  
197 0.2% 98.6%  
198 2% 98%  
199 0.2% 96%  
200 1.1% 96%  
201 0.2% 95%  
202 0.3% 95%  
203 0.5% 94%  
204 0.2% 94%  
205 0.1% 94%  
206 0.9% 93%  
207 1.0% 93%  
208 0.6% 92%  
209 3% 91%  
210 1.2% 88%  
211 2% 87%  
212 2% 85%  
213 3% 83%  
214 2% 81%  
215 0.7% 78%  
216 0.3% 78%  
217 4% 77%  
218 0.7% 74%  
219 0.4% 73%  
220 8% 73%  
221 5% 64%  
222 7% 59%  
223 4% 52% Median
224 8% 49%  
225 0.5% 41%  
226 0.7% 41%  
227 2% 40%  
228 8% 38%  
229 6% 30%  
230 5% 24%  
231 4% 19%  
232 0.5% 15%  
233 0.9% 15%  
234 2% 14%  
235 0.4% 12%  
236 1.5% 11%  
237 0.7% 10%  
238 0.3% 9%  
239 1.2% 9%  
240 3% 8%  
241 2% 5%  
242 1.0% 3%  
243 0.5% 2%  
244 0% 1.3%  
245 0% 1.3%  
246 0.5% 1.3%  
247 0.1% 0.8%  
248 0.2% 0.7%  
249 0% 0.5%  
250 0.2% 0.5%  
251 0.1% 0.3%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
183 0% 100%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.2% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0.1% 99.4%  
189 0.1% 99.4%  
190 0.5% 99.2%  
191 0.1% 98.7%  
192 0.1% 98.6%  
193 2% 98.5%  
194 0.5% 96%  
195 1.1% 96%  
196 0.3% 95%  
197 0.1% 94%  
198 0.4% 94%  
199 0.2% 94%  
200 0.4% 94%  
201 0.3% 93%  
202 0.5% 93%  
203 2% 92%  
204 3% 91%  
205 0.8% 88%  
206 1.4% 87%  
207 1.3% 86%  
208 3% 85%  
209 2% 81%  
210 0.8% 79%  
211 0.2% 78%  
212 0.6% 78%  
213 4% 77%  
214 0.2% 73%  
215 3% 73%  
216 8% 69%  
217 2% 61%  
218 10% 59% Median
219 8% 49%  
220 0.2% 41%  
221 1.0% 41%  
222 0.5% 40%  
223 5% 40%  
224 8% 35%  
225 8% 27%  
226 3% 19%  
227 0.7% 16%  
228 0.8% 15%  
229 2% 15%  
230 1.1% 13%  
231 1.0% 12%  
232 0.8% 11%  
233 0.4% 10%  
234 0.3% 9%  
235 2% 9%  
236 3% 7%  
237 2% 4%  
238 0.5% 2%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0% 1.3%  
241 0.4% 1.3%  
242 0.1% 0.9%  
243 0.4% 0.9%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations