Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 4–8 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.0% 37.4–40.6% 36.9–41.1% 36.5–41.5% 35.8–42.3%
Labour Party 40.0% 34.0% 32.4–35.6% 32.0–36.0% 31.6–36.4% 30.9–37.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.4% 10.4–13.7% 10.0–14.3%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 321 300–337 290–341 284–350 269–357
Labour Party 262 236 219–254 213–260 205–272 201–288
Liberal Democrats 12 31 28–35 27–37 26–37 25–42
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Scottish National Party 35 40 22–48 22–50 17–50 5–51
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 3–8 3–9 3–10

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.5%  
268 0% 99.5%  
269 0% 99.5%  
270 0% 99.5%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0% 99.4%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0% 99.2%  
275 0.3% 99.2%  
276 0.1% 98.9%  
277 0% 98.7%  
278 0.2% 98.7%  
279 0.2% 98.5%  
280 0% 98%  
281 0% 98%  
282 0.1% 98%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 1.0% 98%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 1.2% 97%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 0.3% 95%  
290 0.1% 95%  
291 0.2% 95%  
292 0.2% 95%  
293 1.0% 95%  
294 0.4% 94%  
295 0.1% 93%  
296 0.5% 93%  
297 0.8% 93%  
298 0.3% 92%  
299 1.2% 91%  
300 0.4% 90%  
301 1.3% 90%  
302 0.3% 89%  
303 0.9% 88%  
304 0.6% 87%  
305 2% 87%  
306 0.3% 85%  
307 0.4% 85%  
308 1.4% 84%  
309 0.8% 83%  
310 4% 82%  
311 6% 78%  
312 0.6% 73%  
313 0.5% 72%  
314 3% 72%  
315 5% 69%  
316 1.0% 64%  
317 2% 63% Last Result
318 1.2% 61%  
319 4% 60%  
320 0.9% 56%  
321 6% 55% Median
322 0.7% 49%  
323 14% 49%  
324 4% 34%  
325 0.6% 31%  
326 2% 30% Majority
327 1.3% 29%  
328 6% 27%  
329 1.3% 21%  
330 1.4% 20%  
331 2% 18%  
332 0.7% 17%  
333 1.4% 16%  
334 0.6% 15%  
335 4% 14%  
336 0.1% 10%  
337 1.3% 10%  
338 1.2% 9%  
339 0.2% 8%  
340 2% 8%  
341 1.3% 6%  
342 0.2% 5%  
343 0.5% 5%  
344 0.2% 4%  
345 0.2% 4%  
346 0.2% 4%  
347 0.5% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.1% 3%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0.9% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.3%  
355 0.1% 0.8%  
356 0% 0.8%  
357 0.4% 0.8%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.4% 99.6%  
202 0.1% 99.1%  
203 0.1% 99.0%  
204 0.7% 98.9%  
205 1.0% 98%  
206 0.2% 97%  
207 0.3% 97%  
208 0.3% 97%  
209 0.1% 97%  
210 0.5% 96%  
211 0.1% 96%  
212 0.4% 96%  
213 0.4% 95%  
214 0.4% 95%  
215 0.4% 95%  
216 0.2% 94%  
217 2% 94%  
218 0.8% 92%  
219 2% 92%  
220 0.3% 90%  
221 2% 89%  
222 2% 87%  
223 1.4% 85%  
224 4% 84%  
225 0.9% 80%  
226 4% 79%  
227 3% 75%  
228 1.1% 72%  
229 1.5% 71%  
230 7% 69%  
231 0.6% 63%  
232 1.2% 62%  
233 3% 61%  
234 2% 58%  
235 6% 57%  
236 12% 50% Median
237 4% 39%  
238 1.1% 34%  
239 4% 33%  
240 2% 29%  
241 0.8% 27%  
242 1.2% 26%  
243 0.5% 25%  
244 2% 24%  
245 0.1% 22%  
246 1.1% 22%  
247 2% 21%  
248 6% 20%  
249 0.3% 14%  
250 0.6% 14%  
251 0.3% 13%  
252 1.2% 13%  
253 0.2% 12%  
254 2% 11%  
255 0.9% 9%  
256 2% 8%  
257 0.1% 7%  
258 1.1% 7%  
259 0.2% 5%  
260 0.3% 5%  
261 0.2% 5%  
262 0.2% 5% Last Result
263 0.9% 5%  
264 0.1% 4%  
265 0.1% 4%  
266 0.1% 3%  
267 0.2% 3%  
268 0.1% 3%  
269 0.1% 3%  
270 0.1% 3%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.1% 3%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0% 2%  
276 0.2% 2%  
277 0% 2%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.1% 1.2%  
280 0.5% 1.2%  
281 0% 0.7%  
282 0% 0.6%  
283 0% 0.6%  
284 0% 0.6%  
285 0% 0.6%  
286 0% 0.6%  
287 0% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0% 0.4%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 1.3% 99.8%  
26 2% 98%  
27 5% 96%  
28 4% 91%  
29 10% 87%  
30 14% 77%  
31 22% 63% Median
32 21% 41%  
33 2% 20%  
34 4% 18%  
35 4% 13%  
36 4% 10%  
37 3% 5%  
38 0.9% 2%  
39 0.3% 1.2%  
40 0.1% 1.0%  
41 0.2% 0.8%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 99.9% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 79% 100% Last Result, Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0.6% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0.8% 99.5%  
7 0.1% 98.7%  
8 0.1% 98.6%  
9 0% 98.5%  
10 0.1% 98.5%  
11 0.1% 98%  
12 0.2% 98%  
13 0.1% 98%  
14 0.1% 98%  
15 0.1% 98%  
16 0.1% 98%  
17 0.6% 98%  
18 0.7% 97%  
19 0.7% 97%  
20 0.4% 96%  
21 0.3% 96%  
22 6% 95%  
23 1.3% 89%  
24 1.5% 88%  
25 0.4% 86%  
26 0.3% 86%  
27 2% 86%  
28 2% 84%  
29 0.5% 82%  
30 0.2% 81%  
31 0.1% 81%  
32 0.8% 81%  
33 0.4% 80%  
34 0.2% 80%  
35 10% 80% Last Result
36 5% 70%  
37 5% 65%  
38 2% 60%  
39 1.1% 59%  
40 10% 58% Median
41 11% 48%  
42 6% 37%  
43 0.4% 30%  
44 0.6% 30%  
45 13% 29%  
46 0.3% 17%  
47 4% 16%  
48 2% 12%  
49 0.1% 10%  
50 8% 10%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.4%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 12% 93% Last Result
5 52% 81% Median
6 6% 30%  
7 0.7% 23%  
8 20% 23%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.8% 1.3%  
11 0.3% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 363 97% 345–380 336–385 325–396 310–400
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 359 97% 338–374 328–378 319–388 305–395
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 352 93% 332–367 321–372 318–380 302–386
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 328 58% 306–342 295–347 289–357 275–362
Conservative Party 317 321 30% 300–337 290–341 284–350 269–357
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 309 13% 293–330 289–340 280–345 273–360
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 302 9% 288–324 283–334 273–340 268–355
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 278 0.5% 263–298 258–309 250–311 244–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 271 0.5% 256–291 252–301 242–310 235–325
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 271 0.3% 256–292 252–304 243–306 238–322
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 267 0.3% 249–285 244–294 234–305 230–320
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 240 0% 226–259 220–267 213–277 206–291
Labour Party 262 236 0% 219–254 213–260 205–272 201–288

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0% 99.5%  
310 0.1% 99.5%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0% 99.3%  
313 0.1% 99.3%  
314 0.1% 99.2%  
315 0% 99.1%  
316 0.1% 99.1%  
317 0% 99.0%  
318 0.3% 99.0%  
319 0.1% 98.7%  
320 0.5% 98.6%  
321 0.1% 98%  
322 0% 98%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.1% 98%  
325 0.3% 98%  
326 0% 97% Majority
327 0.1% 97%  
328 0.1% 97%  
329 0.1% 97%  
330 0% 97%  
331 0.1% 97%  
332 0.4% 97%  
333 0.9% 96%  
334 0.1% 95%  
335 0.3% 95%  
336 0.4% 95%  
337 0.6% 95%  
338 0.1% 94%  
339 0.9% 94%  
340 0.7% 93%  
341 2% 92%  
342 0.3% 91%  
343 0.1% 90%  
344 0.2% 90%  
345 0.4% 90%  
346 0.5% 90%  
347 1.2% 89%  
348 1.4% 88%  
349 0.4% 87%  
350 6% 86%  
351 1.1% 80%  
352 0.6% 79%  
353 0.6% 78%  
354 0.4% 78%  
355 0.7% 77%  
356 3% 77% Last Result
357 1.0% 73%  
358 5% 72%  
359 2% 68%  
360 0.3% 66%  
361 4% 66%  
362 0.5% 62%  
363 16% 62%  
364 3% 46%  
365 3% 43%  
366 3% 40% Median
367 0.2% 37%  
368 2% 37%  
369 0.7% 35%  
370 5% 34%  
371 2% 29%  
372 1.4% 27%  
373 4% 25%  
374 2% 21%  
375 0.4% 19%  
376 2% 19%  
377 3% 17%  
378 1.3% 13%  
379 1.5% 12%  
380 0.6% 10%  
381 1.2% 10%  
382 2% 9%  
383 1.3% 7%  
384 0.5% 6%  
385 0.2% 5%  
386 0.4% 5%  
387 0.2% 5%  
388 0.3% 4%  
389 0% 4%  
390 0.5% 4%  
391 0.2% 4%  
392 0.2% 3%  
393 0.3% 3%  
394 0.1% 3%  
395 0.2% 3%  
396 1.4% 3%  
397 0.3% 1.3%  
398 0.1% 0.9%  
399 0% 0.9%  
400 0.4% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0% 99.6%  
305 0% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.5%  
307 0.1% 99.4%  
308 0.1% 99.2%  
309 0.1% 99.2%  
310 0% 99.1%  
311 0.1% 99.1%  
312 0% 99.0%  
313 0.3% 99.0%  
314 0.1% 98.7%  
315 0.4% 98.6%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0% 98%  
318 0.2% 98%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.2% 97%  
321 0.1% 97%  
322 0.1% 97%  
323 0.1% 97%  
324 0.1% 97%  
325 0.1% 97%  
326 0.1% 97% Majority
327 0.5% 97%  
328 1.3% 96%  
329 0.1% 95%  
330 0.1% 95%  
331 0.1% 95%  
332 0% 95%  
333 0.4% 95%  
334 1.5% 94%  
335 0.3% 93%  
336 1.4% 93%  
337 1.1% 91%  
338 0.1% 90%  
339 0.1% 90%  
340 0.3% 90%  
341 1.2% 90%  
342 0.3% 88%  
343 1.4% 88%  
344 0.7% 87%  
345 5% 86%  
346 2% 81%  
347 0.2% 78%  
348 1.2% 78%  
349 0.7% 77%  
350 0.4% 76%  
351 3% 76%  
352 0.7% 73% Last Result
353 6% 72%  
354 0.4% 66%  
355 3% 66%  
356 3% 63%  
357 2% 59%  
358 8% 58%  
359 5% 50%  
360 8% 45%  
361 2% 37% Median
362 5% 35%  
363 0.9% 30%  
364 0.4% 29%  
365 0.4% 29%  
366 3% 29%  
367 1.1% 26%  
368 4% 25%  
369 2% 21%  
370 0.7% 19%  
371 5% 18%  
372 1.4% 13%  
373 2% 12%  
374 2% 10%  
375 0.6% 9%  
376 0.4% 8%  
377 2% 8%  
378 1.0% 6%  
379 0.2% 5%  
380 0.2% 5%  
381 0.1% 5%  
382 0.2% 5%  
383 0.4% 4%  
384 0.5% 4%  
385 0.1% 3%  
386 0.2% 3%  
387 0.2% 3%  
388 1.1% 3%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.1% 2%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.5% 1.3%  
393 0% 0.8%  
394 0% 0.7%  
395 0.5% 0.7%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.5%  
303 0% 99.5%  
304 0% 99.5%  
305 0% 99.5%  
306 0.4% 99.4%  
307 0.2% 99.1%  
308 0.1% 98.9%  
309 0% 98.8%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0% 98.6%  
312 0% 98.6%  
313 0.1% 98.6%  
314 0.2% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 1.0% 98%  
319 0.1% 97%  
320 0.9% 97%  
321 1.0% 96%  
322 0.1% 95%  
323 0.6% 95%  
324 0.2% 94%  
325 0.6% 94%  
326 0.3% 93% Majority
327 0.1% 93%  
328 0.3% 93%  
329 0.1% 93% Last Result
330 0.6% 93%  
331 1.2% 92%  
332 1.2% 91%  
333 0.3% 89%  
334 1.4% 89%  
335 0.7% 88%  
336 0.4% 87%  
337 0.3% 87%  
338 0.9% 86%  
339 2% 86%  
340 2% 84%  
341 2% 82%  
342 0.2% 80%  
343 7% 80%  
344 1.1% 73%  
345 2% 72%  
346 2% 70%  
347 5% 69%  
348 2% 64%  
349 0.9% 62%  
350 3% 61%  
351 7% 57%  
352 0.6% 50% Median
353 2% 49%  
354 7% 48%  
355 8% 40%  
356 4% 32%  
357 0.5% 28%  
358 1.3% 27%  
359 5% 26%  
360 0.6% 21%  
361 4% 21%  
362 0.9% 17%  
363 1.2% 16%  
364 4% 15%  
365 0.5% 11%  
366 0.3% 10%  
367 0.5% 10%  
368 0.3% 10%  
369 0.2% 9%  
370 3% 9%  
371 0.9% 6%  
372 0.6% 5%  
373 0.4% 5%  
374 0.4% 4%  
375 0.2% 4%  
376 0.2% 4%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.2% 3%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.5% 3%  
381 1.0% 2%  
382 0% 1.4%  
383 0.2% 1.4%  
384 0.3% 1.2%  
385 0.1% 0.9%  
386 0.4% 0.8%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.5%  
273 0% 99.5%  
274 0% 99.5%  
275 0% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0.4% 99.2%  
281 0% 98.8%  
282 0.1% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.7%  
284 0.2% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0% 98%  
289 0.8% 98%  
290 0.1% 97%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 2% 97%  
293 0.1% 95%  
294 0% 95%  
295 0.4% 95%  
296 0.2% 95%  
297 0.1% 95%  
298 1.0% 95%  
299 0.3% 94%  
300 0.9% 93%  
301 0.1% 92%  
302 0.3% 92%  
303 1.0% 92%  
304 0.3% 91%  
305 0.5% 91%  
306 0.7% 90%  
307 2% 90%  
308 0.6% 88%  
309 0.2% 87%  
310 2% 87%  
311 0.3% 86%  
312 0.1% 85%  
313 0.9% 85%  
314 1.3% 84%  
315 2% 83%  
316 7% 81%  
317 0.2% 73%  
318 5% 73%  
319 3% 69%  
320 1.0% 65%  
321 0.7% 64% Last Result
322 1.3% 64%  
323 0.4% 62%  
324 3% 62%  
325 0.4% 59%  
326 2% 58% Median, Majority
327 2% 56%  
328 17% 54%  
329 5% 38%  
330 1.1% 32%  
331 2% 31%  
332 2% 29%  
333 5% 27%  
334 2% 22%  
335 1.5% 20%  
336 0.6% 19%  
337 0.8% 18%  
338 0.8% 17%  
339 1.4% 16%  
340 0.6% 15%  
341 4% 14%  
342 1.3% 11%  
343 0.4% 10%  
344 0.2% 9%  
345 2% 9%  
346 1.5% 7%  
347 0.9% 6%  
348 0.3% 5%  
349 0.2% 4%  
350 0.3% 4%  
351 0.4% 4%  
352 0.1% 4%  
353 0.1% 3%  
354 0.2% 3%  
355 0.6% 3%  
356 0.1% 3%  
357 0.2% 3%  
358 0% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 1.0% 2%  
361 0.1% 1.0%  
362 0.4% 0.8%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.5%  
268 0% 99.5%  
269 0% 99.5%  
270 0% 99.5%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0% 99.4%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0% 99.2%  
275 0.3% 99.2%  
276 0.1% 98.9%  
277 0% 98.7%  
278 0.2% 98.7%  
279 0.2% 98.5%  
280 0% 98%  
281 0% 98%  
282 0.1% 98%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 1.0% 98%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 1.2% 97%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 0.3% 95%  
290 0.1% 95%  
291 0.2% 95%  
292 0.2% 95%  
293 1.0% 95%  
294 0.4% 94%  
295 0.1% 93%  
296 0.5% 93%  
297 0.8% 93%  
298 0.3% 92%  
299 1.2% 91%  
300 0.4% 90%  
301 1.3% 90%  
302 0.3% 89%  
303 0.9% 88%  
304 0.6% 87%  
305 2% 87%  
306 0.3% 85%  
307 0.4% 85%  
308 1.4% 84%  
309 0.8% 83%  
310 4% 82%  
311 6% 78%  
312 0.6% 73%  
313 0.5% 72%  
314 3% 72%  
315 5% 69%  
316 1.0% 64%  
317 2% 63% Last Result
318 1.2% 61%  
319 4% 60%  
320 0.9% 56%  
321 6% 55% Median
322 0.7% 49%  
323 14% 49%  
324 4% 34%  
325 0.6% 31%  
326 2% 30% Majority
327 1.3% 29%  
328 6% 27%  
329 1.3% 21%  
330 1.4% 20%  
331 2% 18%  
332 0.7% 17%  
333 1.4% 16%  
334 0.6% 15%  
335 4% 14%  
336 0.1% 10%  
337 1.3% 10%  
338 1.2% 9%  
339 0.2% 8%  
340 2% 8%  
341 1.3% 6%  
342 0.2% 5%  
343 0.5% 5%  
344 0.2% 4%  
345 0.2% 4%  
346 0.2% 4%  
347 0.5% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.1% 3%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0.9% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.5% 1.3%  
355 0.1% 0.8%  
356 0% 0.8%  
357 0.4% 0.8%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0.4% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.2%  
275 0.1% 99.2%  
276 0.5% 99.1%  
277 0.2% 98.6%  
278 0.9% 98%  
279 0% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.1% 97%  
283 0.4% 97%  
284 0.1% 96%  
285 0.2% 96%  
286 0.2% 96%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.2% 95%  
289 3% 95%  
290 0.2% 93%  
291 0.4% 92%  
292 1.2% 92%  
293 1.1% 91%  
294 0.1% 90%  
295 4% 90%  
296 1.0% 86%  
297 1.4% 85%  
298 0.5% 84%  
299 2% 83%  
300 1.0% 81%  
301 1.3% 80%  
302 7% 79%  
303 2% 73%  
304 1.2% 71%  
305 0.9% 70%  
306 3% 69%  
307 14% 65%  
308 0.9% 51%  
309 6% 50%  
310 2% 44%  
311 2% 42%  
312 2% 40% Median
313 1.2% 38% Last Result
314 0.8% 37%  
315 5% 36%  
316 3% 31%  
317 0.7% 28%  
318 2% 27%  
319 6% 25%  
320 2% 19%  
321 0.9% 18%  
322 1.2% 17%  
323 0.5% 15%  
324 0.5% 15%  
325 1.2% 14%  
326 0.6% 13% Majority
327 1.0% 13%  
328 0.3% 12%  
329 1.2% 11%  
330 0.3% 10%  
331 2% 10%  
332 0.2% 8%  
333 1.1% 8%  
334 0.1% 7%  
335 0.1% 7%  
336 0.4% 7%  
337 1.1% 6%  
338 0.2% 5%  
339 0% 5%  
340 0.1% 5%  
341 0.3% 5%  
342 0.8% 5%  
343 0.5% 4%  
344 0.2% 3%  
345 0.9% 3%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.1% 2%  
349 0% 2%  
350 0.1% 2%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.1% 1.4%  
353 0.1% 1.3%  
354 0.3% 1.2%  
355 0% 0.9%  
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.1% 0.6%  
358 0% 0.6%  
359 0% 0.5%  
360 0% 0.5%  
361 0% 0.5%  
362 0% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.4% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 1.0% 99.0%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0% 98%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.1% 97%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 0.2% 97%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0.1% 97%  
279 0.4% 96%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 0.2% 96%  
282 0.3% 96%  
283 0.9% 95%  
284 3% 94%  
285 0.6% 92%  
286 0.4% 91%  
287 0.4% 91%  
288 1.2% 90%  
289 4% 89%  
290 0.5% 85%  
291 2% 85%  
292 0.9% 83%  
293 0.5% 82%  
294 0.7% 82%  
295 1.2% 81%  
296 2% 80%  
297 5% 78%  
298 2% 72%  
299 2% 70%  
300 0.7% 68%  
301 5% 68%  
302 18% 62%  
303 1.4% 44%  
304 1.4% 43%  
305 1.2% 42%  
306 2% 40%  
307 0.6% 38% Median
308 1.2% 37%  
309 0.6% 36% Last Result
310 1.1% 36%  
311 4% 35%  
312 4% 31%  
313 3% 27%  
314 6% 24%  
315 2% 18%  
316 0.3% 16%  
317 0.8% 16%  
318 0.4% 15%  
319 0.4% 14%  
320 1.3% 14%  
321 0.2% 13%  
322 0.5% 13%  
323 2% 12%  
324 0.6% 10%  
325 0.6% 10%  
326 0.2% 9% Majority
327 0.9% 9%  
328 0.1% 8%  
329 0.5% 8%  
330 0.6% 7%  
331 0.4% 7%  
332 0.9% 6%  
333 0.2% 5%  
334 0.2% 5%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 0.1% 5%  
337 0.8% 5%  
338 0.8% 4%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.9% 3%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.4%  
348 0.1% 1.3%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.6%  
244 0.4% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.2%  
246 0.3% 99.1%  
247 0.2% 98.8%  
248 0.1% 98.6%  
249 1.0% 98.6%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.1% 97%  
252 0.1% 97%  
253 0.4% 97%  
254 0.2% 96%  
255 0.3% 96%  
256 0.3% 96%  
257 0.5% 96%  
258 0.8% 95%  
259 2% 94%  
260 1.4% 92%  
261 0.3% 91%  
262 0.4% 91%  
263 0.3% 90%  
264 0.3% 90%  
265 0.5% 90%  
266 4% 89%  
267 2% 85%  
268 1.4% 84%  
269 3% 82%  
270 1.0% 79%  
271 5% 78%  
272 1.3% 74%  
273 2% 72%  
274 3% 71%  
275 8% 68%  
276 7% 59%  
277 2% 52%  
278 0.5% 50%  
279 9% 50%  
280 2% 41%  
281 1.3% 39% Median
282 3% 38%  
283 4% 35%  
284 2% 31%  
285 2% 29%  
286 3% 27%  
287 4% 24%  
288 2% 20%  
289 0.8% 18%  
290 1.3% 17%  
291 2% 16%  
292 0.7% 14%  
293 0.2% 13%  
294 0.3% 13%  
295 1.3% 13%  
296 0.8% 12%  
297 0.3% 11%  
298 2% 10%  
299 0.7% 9%  
300 0.6% 8%  
301 0.1% 7% Last Result
302 0.3% 7%  
303 0% 7%  
304 0.5% 7%  
305 0.5% 6%  
306 0.1% 6%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 0.1% 5%  
309 2% 5%  
310 0% 3%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0% 1.4%  
319 0.2% 1.4%  
320 0% 1.2%  
321 0.1% 1.2%  
322 0% 1.1%  
323 0.4% 1.1%  
324 0.1% 0.7%  
325 0% 0.6%  
326 0% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.8%  
235 0.5% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.3%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0.5% 99.2%  
239 0.3% 98.7%  
240 0.1% 98%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 1.0% 98%  
243 0.2% 97%  
244 0.2% 97%  
245 0.1% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 0.2% 96%  
249 0.1% 95%  
250 0.2% 95%  
251 0.2% 95%  
252 2% 95%  
253 0.1% 93%  
254 0.4% 92%  
255 0.7% 92%  
256 2% 91%  
257 1.3% 89%  
258 2% 88%  
259 4% 86%  
260 0.7% 82%  
261 2% 81%  
262 4% 79%  
263 1.5% 75%  
264 2% 74%  
265 0.3% 71%  
266 0.9% 71%  
267 0.6% 70%  
268 5% 69%  
269 5% 64%  
270 5% 60%  
271 5% 55%  
272 9% 50% Median
273 0.4% 41%  
274 3% 40%  
275 3% 37%  
276 3% 34%  
277 3% 31%  
278 0.6% 28% Last Result
279 3% 27%  
280 0.5% 24%  
281 1.1% 24%  
282 0.9% 23%  
283 1.0% 22%  
284 2% 21%  
285 5% 19%  
286 0.7% 14%  
287 1.4% 13%  
288 0.3% 12%  
289 1.2% 11%  
290 0.2% 10%  
291 0.1% 10%  
292 1.0% 10%  
293 0.2% 9%  
294 1.4% 9%  
295 0.9% 7%  
296 0.8% 6%  
297 0.3% 6%  
298 0.1% 5%  
299 0.1% 5%  
300 0.1% 5%  
301 0.9% 5%  
302 0.6% 4%  
303 0.4% 4%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0% 3%  
306 0.1% 3%  
307 0.1% 3%  
308 0.1% 3%  
309 0% 3%  
310 0.2% 3%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.3% 1.3%  
317 0% 1.0%  
318 0.1% 1.0%  
319 0% 0.9%  
320 0.1% 0.9%  
321 0% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.7%  
324 0% 0.5%  
325 0% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0.1% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.4% 99.5%  
240 0% 99.1%  
241 1.1% 99.0%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0.1% 97%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 0.2% 97%  
247 0.2% 97%  
248 0.1% 96%  
249 0.4% 96%  
250 0.5% 96%  
251 0.4% 95%  
252 0.9% 95%  
253 1.2% 94%  
254 2% 93%  
255 0.8% 91%  
256 0.5% 90%  
257 0.2% 90%  
258 0.4% 90%  
259 0.4% 89%  
260 4% 89%  
261 1.4% 85%  
262 2% 84%  
263 1.4% 82%  
264 2% 81%  
265 0.8% 78%  
266 5% 78%  
267 2% 73%  
268 1.2% 71%  
269 3% 69%  
270 6% 66%  
271 16% 61%  
272 0.5% 45%  
273 1.0% 44%  
274 2% 43%  
275 3% 41%  
276 1.4% 38% Median
277 2% 37%  
278 1.2% 34%  
279 2% 33%  
280 4% 31%  
281 4% 27%  
282 5% 23%  
283 2% 18%  
284 0.4% 17%  
285 0.5% 16%  
286 2% 16%  
287 0.7% 14%  
288 0.5% 13%  
289 0.7% 13%  
290 0.5% 12%  
291 1.2% 12%  
292 0.9% 10%  
293 0.5% 10%  
294 0.9% 9%  
295 0.8% 8%  
296 0% 7%  
297 0.4% 7% Last Result
298 0.1% 7%  
299 0.7% 7%  
300 0.2% 6%  
301 0.1% 6%  
302 0.6% 6%  
303 0.2% 5%  
304 2% 5%  
305 0.1% 3%  
306 0.8% 3%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0% 1.4%  
314 0% 1.4%  
315 0.1% 1.3%  
316 0.1% 1.2%  
317 0.1% 1.1%  
318 0.4% 1.1%  
319 0.1% 0.6%  
320 0% 0.6%  
321 0% 0.5%  
322 0% 0.5%  
323 0% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0.5% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.1%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.4% 99.0%  
234 1.3% 98.7%  
235 0.2% 97%  
236 0.1% 97%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 0.2% 97%  
239 0.2% 97%  
240 0.5% 96%  
241 0.1% 96%  
242 0.3% 96%  
243 0.2% 96%  
244 0.4% 95%  
245 0.1% 95%  
246 0.4% 95%  
247 3% 94%  
248 0.6% 92%  
249 1.3% 91%  
250 0.6% 90%  
251 2% 89%  
252 0.7% 87%  
253 4% 87%  
254 1.5% 83%  
255 0.3% 81%  
256 2% 81%  
257 5% 79%  
258 1.0% 74%  
259 2% 73%  
260 5% 71%  
261 2% 66%  
262 0.7% 64%  
263 0.9% 63%  
264 4% 62%  
265 1.0% 58%  
266 4% 57%  
267 16% 54% Median
268 0.9% 38%  
269 3% 37%  
270 0.6% 34%  
271 4% 34%  
272 2% 29%  
273 0.9% 27%  
274 3% 26% Last Result
275 0.9% 23%  
276 0.5% 22%  
277 0.5% 22%  
278 0.8% 21%  
279 1.1% 21%  
280 6% 20%  
281 0.4% 14%  
282 1.4% 13%  
283 1.1% 12%  
284 0.6% 11%  
285 0.3% 10%  
286 0.1% 10%  
287 0.1% 10%  
288 1.1% 9%  
289 0.8% 8%  
290 1.5% 8%  
291 0.1% 6%  
292 0.1% 6%  
293 0.6% 6%  
294 0.6% 5%  
295 0.1% 5%  
296 0.8% 5%  
297 0.3% 4%  
298 0.3% 3%  
299 0.1% 3%  
300 0% 3%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.2% 3%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0% 2%  
310 0.6% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.3%  
312 0.1% 1.1%  
313 0.1% 1.0%  
314 0% 0.9%  
315 0.1% 0.9%  
316 0% 0.8%  
317 0.1% 0.8%  
318 0.1% 0.7%  
319 0% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.6%  
321 0.1% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.8%  
200 0% 99.8%  
201 0% 99.8%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0% 99.8%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0.4% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.3%  
208 0.4% 99.2%  
209 0.4% 98.9%  
210 0.2% 98%  
211 0.2% 98%  
212 0.2% 98%  
213 1.2% 98%  
214 0.1% 97%  
215 0.1% 97%  
216 0.7% 97%  
217 0.3% 96%  
218 0.3% 96%  
219 0.1% 95%  
220 0.6% 95%  
221 0.4% 95%  
222 2% 94%  
223 1.0% 93%  
224 0.1% 92%  
225 1.1% 92%  
226 1.3% 91%  
227 3% 89%  
228 1.4% 87%  
229 2% 85%  
230 4% 83%  
231 4% 80%  
232 3% 75%  
233 1.0% 73%  
234 2% 72%  
235 0.5% 70%  
236 0.2% 69%  
237 0.5% 69%  
238 12% 69%  
239 3% 57%  
240 5% 54%  
241 8% 49% Median
242 3% 40%  
243 1.4% 37%  
244 3% 36%  
245 5% 32%  
246 0.3% 28%  
247 2% 27%  
248 2% 26%  
249 1.0% 24%  
250 0.4% 23%  
251 1.2% 23%  
252 2% 21%  
253 5% 20%  
254 0.4% 14%  
255 0.2% 14%  
256 0.6% 14%  
257 0.4% 13%  
258 2% 13%  
259 2% 10%  
260 0.7% 9%  
261 1.0% 8%  
262 0.4% 7%  
263 0.8% 6%  
264 0.3% 6%  
265 0.2% 5%  
266 0.1% 5% Last Result
267 0.1% 5%  
268 1.1% 5%  
269 0.1% 4%  
270 0.2% 4%  
271 0.3% 4%  
272 0.1% 3%  
273 0% 3%  
274 0.2% 3%  
275 0% 3%  
276 0.3% 3%  
277 0.2% 3%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.4% 2%  
280 0% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0% 2%  
283 0.2% 2%  
284 0.1% 1.3%  
285 0.5% 1.2%  
286 0% 0.7%  
287 0% 0.7%  
288 0% 0.6%  
289 0% 0.6%  
290 0% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0% 0.5%  
293 0% 0.4%  
294 0% 0.4%  
295 0% 0.4%  
296 0.1% 0.4%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0.1% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.4% 99.6%  
202 0.1% 99.1%  
203 0.1% 99.0%  
204 0.7% 98.9%  
205 1.0% 98%  
206 0.2% 97%  
207 0.3% 97%  
208 0.3% 97%  
209 0.1% 97%  
210 0.5% 96%  
211 0.1% 96%  
212 0.4% 96%  
213 0.4% 95%  
214 0.4% 95%  
215 0.4% 95%  
216 0.2% 94%  
217 2% 94%  
218 0.8% 92%  
219 2% 92%  
220 0.3% 90%  
221 2% 89%  
222 2% 87%  
223 1.4% 85%  
224 4% 84%  
225 0.9% 80%  
226 4% 79%  
227 3% 75%  
228 1.1% 72%  
229 1.5% 71%  
230 7% 69%  
231 0.6% 63%  
232 1.2% 62%  
233 3% 61%  
234 2% 58%  
235 6% 57%  
236 12% 50% Median
237 4% 39%  
238 1.1% 34%  
239 4% 33%  
240 2% 29%  
241 0.8% 27%  
242 1.2% 26%  
243 0.5% 25%  
244 2% 24%  
245 0.1% 22%  
246 1.1% 22%  
247 2% 21%  
248 6% 20%  
249 0.3% 14%  
250 0.6% 14%  
251 0.3% 13%  
252 1.2% 13%  
253 0.2% 12%  
254 2% 11%  
255 0.9% 9%  
256 2% 8%  
257 0.1% 7%  
258 1.1% 7%  
259 0.2% 5%  
260 0.3% 5%  
261 0.2% 5%  
262 0.2% 5% Last Result
263 0.9% 5%  
264 0.1% 4%  
265 0.1% 4%  
266 0.1% 3%  
267 0.2% 3%  
268 0.1% 3%  
269 0.1% 3%  
270 0.1% 3%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.1% 3%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0% 2%  
276 0.2% 2%  
277 0% 2%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.1% 1.2%  
280 0.5% 1.2%  
281 0% 0.7%  
282 0% 0.6%  
283 0% 0.6%  
284 0% 0.6%  
285 0% 0.6%  
286 0% 0.6%  
287 0% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0% 0.4%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations