Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 2–5 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 35.3% 33.8–36.9% 33.3–37.4% 33.0–37.8% 32.2–38.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 34.3% 32.8–35.9% 32.3–36.4% 32.0–36.8% 31.2–37.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 11.1% 10.2–12.2% 9.9–12.6% 9.6–12.8% 9.2–13.4%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.1% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.2% 5.0–7.4% 4.6–7.8%
Green Party 1.6% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.8–6.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 2.9–5.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 281 253–307 249–310 245–314 237–321
Labour Party 262 259 235–286 233–290 229–294 222–300
Liberal Democrats 12 30 27–36 26–37 26–39 23–40
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Green Party 1 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Scottish National Party 35 51 50–54 48–54 47–54 40–56
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 3–9 3–10

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.1% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.3%  
240 0.2% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 98.9%  
242 0.4% 98.7%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.8% 97%  
247 0.6% 96%  
248 0.6% 96%  
249 1.3% 95%  
250 0.9% 94%  
251 1.2% 93%  
252 1.2% 92%  
253 0.8% 91%  
254 0.5% 90%  
255 1.1% 89%  
256 2% 88%  
257 0.7% 86%  
258 1.0% 85%  
259 1.5% 84%  
260 1.0% 83%  
261 2% 82%  
262 0.8% 80%  
263 1.0% 79%  
264 1.4% 78%  
265 2% 77%  
266 1.4% 75%  
267 0.4% 74%  
268 3% 74%  
269 2% 71%  
270 0.7% 69%  
271 2% 68%  
272 2% 66%  
273 3% 64%  
274 1.2% 61%  
275 2% 60%  
276 2% 59%  
277 1.0% 57%  
278 1.1% 56%  
279 1.3% 55%  
280 1.5% 54%  
281 2% 52% Median
282 2% 50%  
283 2% 48%  
284 2% 47%  
285 2% 45%  
286 1.4% 42%  
287 3% 41%  
288 2% 38%  
289 0.9% 36%  
290 2% 36%  
291 2% 33%  
292 2% 31%  
293 0.8% 29%  
294 1.4% 28%  
295 1.4% 27%  
296 1.1% 25%  
297 1.2% 24%  
298 2% 23%  
299 1.0% 21%  
300 1.4% 20%  
301 2% 19%  
302 1.4% 17%  
303 1.2% 16%  
304 0.6% 15%  
305 1.5% 14%  
306 2% 13%  
307 2% 11%  
308 2% 9%  
309 2% 7%  
310 0.7% 6%  
311 1.2% 5%  
312 0.4% 4%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.5% 3%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.3% 2% Last Result
318 0.3% 1.4%  
319 0.3% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.9%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.2% 99.7%  
222 0.2% 99.5%  
223 0.3% 99.3%  
224 0.1% 99.1%  
225 0.3% 98.9%  
226 0.2% 98.7%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 0.8% 98%  
230 0.7% 97%  
231 0.6% 96%  
232 0.7% 96%  
233 2% 95%  
234 1.5% 93%  
235 3% 92%  
236 3% 89%  
237 1.2% 86%  
238 0.8% 85%  
239 0.9% 84%  
240 0.7% 83%  
241 2% 82%  
242 2% 81%  
243 1.5% 79%  
244 2% 78%  
245 1.0% 76%  
246 1.4% 75%  
247 1.4% 73%  
248 0.5% 72%  
249 2% 71%  
250 2% 70%  
251 3% 68%  
252 3% 66%  
253 2% 63%  
254 2% 61%  
255 1.1% 59%  
256 2% 58%  
257 1.2% 56%  
258 3% 55%  
259 3% 51% Median
260 1.1% 48%  
261 2% 47%  
262 1.1% 45% Last Result
263 0.8% 44%  
264 1.4% 43%  
265 0.9% 42%  
266 2% 41%  
267 4% 39%  
268 1.1% 35%  
269 3% 34%  
270 1.0% 31%  
271 0.7% 30%  
272 2% 29%  
273 1.0% 27%  
274 2% 26%  
275 1.1% 24%  
276 1.4% 23%  
277 2% 22%  
278 1.0% 20%  
279 2% 19%  
280 0.9% 17%  
281 2% 16%  
282 1.2% 15%  
283 1.1% 14%  
284 1.4% 12%  
285 0.8% 11%  
286 1.1% 10%  
287 0.9% 9%  
288 1.2% 8%  
289 1.1% 7%  
290 1.3% 6%  
291 0.7% 5%  
292 1.1% 4%  
293 0.3% 3%  
294 0.4% 3%  
295 0.7% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.5%  
297 0.2% 1.2%  
298 0.1% 1.0%  
299 0.4% 0.9%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.4%  
303 0.2% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 0.9% 99.5%  
25 1.1% 98.6%  
26 5% 98%  
27 11% 93%  
28 12% 82%  
29 9% 70%  
30 11% 61% Median
31 9% 50%  
32 10% 40%  
33 4% 31%  
34 7% 26%  
35 9% 19%  
36 5% 11%  
37 2% 5%  
38 0.8% 3%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 66% 97% Median
3 31% 31%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.3% 99.4%  
42 0.2% 99.2%  
43 0.1% 98.9%  
44 0.3% 98.9%  
45 0.7% 98.6%  
46 0.3% 98%  
47 2% 98%  
48 4% 96%  
49 0.1% 92%  
50 16% 92%  
51 28% 75% Median
52 2% 48%  
53 26% 46%  
54 18% 20%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 1.2% 1.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 5% 99.8%  
4 9% 95% Last Result
5 57% 86% Median
6 7% 30%  
7 2% 22%  
8 18% 21%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.7% 1.2%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 347 85% 322–375 318–380 315–384 307–392
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 342 78% 316–369 312–375 309–379 301–387
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 339 72% 311–364 306–367 302–370 294–378
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 333 62% 306–358 301–361 297–364 289–372
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 316 33% 292–343 289–348 285–351 278–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 310 26% 286–338 283–343 279–346 272–353
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 312 27% 286–337 281–340 277–344 270–351
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 295 7% 271–323 268–328 265–332 257–339
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 289 3% 265–317 262–322 259–326 251–334
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 287 0.9% 259–313 254–316 250–320 242–328
Conservative Party 317 281 0.2% 253–307 249–310 245–314 237–321
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 264 0% 241–291 238–295 234–299 228–305
Labour Party 262 259 0% 235–286 233–290 229–294 222–300

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.2% 99.3%  
310 0.3% 99.1%  
311 0.3% 98.8%  
312 0.3% 98.5%  
313 0.2% 98% Last Result
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.6% 97%  
317 0.5% 97%  
318 1.1% 96%  
319 1.0% 95%  
320 2% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 1.5% 90%  
323 2% 89%  
324 1.3% 87%  
325 1.1% 86%  
326 1.2% 85% Majority
327 1.2% 83%  
328 1.3% 82%  
329 2% 81%  
330 0.6% 79%  
331 2% 78%  
332 1.2% 76%  
333 0.9% 75%  
334 1.4% 74%  
335 1.3% 73%  
336 1.4% 72%  
337 2% 70%  
338 2% 68%  
339 2% 66%  
340 1.1% 64%  
341 2% 63%  
342 3% 62%  
343 1.5% 59%  
344 2% 57%  
345 2% 55% Median
346 1.2% 53%  
347 2% 51%  
348 2% 50%  
349 2% 47%  
350 1.1% 46%  
351 1.2% 45%  
352 1.1% 43%  
353 2% 42%  
354 1.5% 41%  
355 2% 39%  
356 2% 37%  
357 2% 35%  
358 1.0% 33%  
359 1.1% 32%  
360 3% 31%  
361 2% 28%  
362 0.6% 26%  
363 2% 26%  
364 1.2% 24%  
365 1.4% 23%  
366 1.0% 21%  
367 1.1% 20%  
368 2% 19%  
369 1.2% 18%  
370 2% 17%  
371 0.4% 15%  
372 2% 14%  
373 1.3% 13%  
374 1.0% 11%  
375 0.7% 10%  
376 1.1% 10%  
377 1.2% 9%  
378 0.9% 7%  
379 1.1% 6%  
380 0.8% 5%  
381 0.5% 4%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.7% 3%  
384 0.3% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.5%  
388 0.2% 1.2%  
389 0.2% 1.0%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.3% 99.3%  
304 0.2% 99.1%  
305 0.3% 98.9%  
306 0.3% 98.5%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.5% 98% Last Result
310 0.6% 97%  
311 0.7% 97%  
312 1.0% 96%  
313 0.9% 95%  
314 1.1% 94%  
315 2% 93%  
316 2% 91%  
317 1.3% 89%  
318 2% 88%  
319 1.1% 86%  
320 1.3% 85%  
321 1.4% 84%  
322 0.7% 82%  
323 2% 82%  
324 1.4% 79%  
325 0.5% 78%  
326 1.5% 78% Majority
327 2% 76%  
328 1.2% 75%  
329 2% 73%  
330 1.5% 72%  
331 2% 70%  
332 2% 69%  
333 2% 67%  
334 2% 65%  
335 2% 64%  
336 2% 62%  
337 2% 60%  
338 1.3% 58%  
339 3% 56%  
340 3% 54% Median
341 1.1% 51%  
342 2% 50%  
343 0.9% 48%  
344 2% 47%  
345 2% 46%  
346 1.3% 44%  
347 2% 43%  
348 2% 41%  
349 1.3% 39%  
350 2% 38%  
351 2% 36%  
352 2% 34%  
353 2% 32%  
354 0.8% 31%  
355 3% 30%  
356 0.9% 27%  
357 0.8% 26%  
358 2% 25%  
359 1.2% 23%  
360 1.4% 22%  
361 1.0% 20%  
362 1.1% 19%  
363 1.1% 18%  
364 0.8% 17%  
365 2% 16%  
366 0.7% 15%  
367 2% 14%  
368 1.0% 12%  
369 1.1% 11%  
370 0.7% 10%  
371 1.0% 9%  
372 1.2% 8%  
373 0.8% 7%  
374 0.9% 6%  
375 1.0% 5%  
376 0.5% 4%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.7% 3%  
379 0.4% 3%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.4% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.5%  
383 0.2% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 1.0%  
385 0.2% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.2% 99.2%  
298 0.1% 98.9%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.4% 98.6%  
301 0.5% 98%  
302 0.4% 98%  
303 0.5% 97%  
304 0.8% 97%  
305 0.6% 96%  
306 0.8% 96%  
307 1.2% 95%  
308 0.9% 94%  
309 0.8% 93%  
310 1.0% 92%  
311 1.4% 91%  
312 1.1% 89%  
313 0.6% 88%  
314 2% 88%  
315 1.2% 85%  
316 0.9% 84%  
317 0.8% 83%  
318 0.8% 82%  
319 1.3% 82%  
320 2% 80%  
321 0.9% 79%  
322 1.5% 78%  
323 1.2% 77%  
324 2% 75%  
325 1.3% 74%  
326 2% 72% Majority
327 3% 70%  
328 2% 68%  
329 2% 66%  
330 1.2% 64%  
331 2% 63%  
332 2% 61%  
333 2% 59%  
334 2% 57%  
335 1.3% 56%  
336 1.2% 55%  
337 1.3% 53% Median
338 1.0% 52%  
339 2% 51%  
340 2% 49%  
341 3% 47%  
342 1.5% 45%  
343 3% 43%  
344 2% 40%  
345 1.5% 38%  
346 2% 37%  
347 3% 35%  
348 2% 32%  
349 0.7% 31%  
350 2% 30%  
351 2% 28%  
352 1.3% 27%  
353 1.3% 25%  
354 1.2% 24%  
355 1.0% 23%  
356 2% 22% Last Result
357 1.4% 20%  
358 1.0% 18%  
359 1.5% 18%  
360 0.9% 16%  
361 1.4% 15%  
362 2% 14%  
363 2% 12%  
364 2% 11%  
365 1.4% 9%  
366 1.3% 7%  
367 2% 6%  
368 0.7% 4%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.3% 1.5%  
375 0.2% 1.2%  
376 0.2% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.2% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.2% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.5%  
291 0.2% 99.3%  
292 0.3% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 98.9%  
294 0.3% 98.8%  
295 0.5% 98.5%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.5% 97%  
299 0.8% 97%  
300 0.6% 96%  
301 1.0% 95%  
302 1.1% 94%  
303 1.0% 93%  
304 0.7% 92%  
305 1.0% 91%  
306 2% 90%  
307 0.7% 89%  
308 0.9% 88%  
309 2% 87%  
310 1.0% 85%  
311 1.1% 84%  
312 0.8% 83%  
313 1.1% 82%  
314 1.3% 81%  
315 2% 80%  
316 1.0% 78%  
317 2% 77%  
318 1.1% 76%  
319 1.3% 75%  
320 2% 73%  
321 3% 71%  
322 2% 69%  
323 1.2% 67%  
324 2% 65%  
325 2% 64%  
326 2% 62% Majority
327 2% 60%  
328 1.3% 58%  
329 0.9% 56%  
330 1.1% 55%  
331 2% 54%  
332 2% 53% Median
333 2% 51%  
334 1.5% 49%  
335 2% 48%  
336 2% 46%  
337 2% 44%  
338 4% 42%  
339 1.4% 39%  
340 1.0% 37%  
341 3% 36%  
342 2% 33%  
343 2% 31%  
344 0.7% 29%  
345 0.9% 28%  
346 1.2% 27%  
347 0.6% 26%  
348 2% 25%  
349 1.0% 23%  
350 2% 22%  
351 2% 20%  
352 1.2% 19% Last Result
353 1.2% 18%  
354 1.0% 16%  
355 1.1% 15%  
356 1.3% 14%  
357 1.3% 13%  
358 2% 12%  
359 2% 9%  
360 2% 8%  
361 2% 6%  
362 0.9% 4%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.4% 3%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.4%  
369 0.3% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0.2% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.3% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 98.9%  
282 0.2% 98.7%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0.5% 97%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 2% 96%  
290 0.8% 94%  
291 3% 93%  
292 2% 90%  
293 2% 89%  
294 2% 87%  
295 1.3% 85%  
296 1.1% 84%  
297 1.2% 83%  
298 0.8% 82%  
299 2% 81%  
300 2% 79%  
301 2% 77% Last Result
302 1.3% 76%  
303 1.3% 74%  
304 0.9% 73%  
305 2% 72%  
306 0.9% 71%  
307 2% 70%  
308 2% 68%  
309 2% 66%  
310 3% 64%  
311 1.3% 61%  
312 1.2% 60%  
313 3% 58%  
314 3% 56%  
315 2% 53% Median
316 1.5% 51%  
317 1.3% 49%  
318 2% 48%  
319 2% 46%  
320 2% 45%  
321 1.2% 43%  
322 2% 42%  
323 1.2% 40%  
324 2% 39%  
325 4% 37%  
326 1.4% 33% Majority
327 0.9% 32%  
328 1.3% 31%  
329 1.2% 30%  
330 1.1% 28%  
331 1.0% 27%  
332 3% 26%  
333 1.0% 23%  
334 0.9% 22%  
335 1.2% 21%  
336 2% 20%  
337 1.3% 18%  
338 1.4% 17%  
339 0.8% 15%  
340 1.2% 15%  
341 1.3% 14%  
342 2% 12%  
343 0.9% 10%  
344 1.0% 9%  
345 0.6% 9%  
346 0.8% 8%  
347 1.5% 7%  
348 0.8% 6%  
349 1.0% 5%  
350 0.7% 4%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.6% 2%  
354 0.3% 1.5%  
355 0.2% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.9%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0.4% 99.0%  
276 0.3% 98.7%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.7% 98%  
280 0.7% 97%  
281 0.5% 97%  
282 0.5% 96%  
283 0.8% 95%  
284 1.4% 95%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 2% 88%  
289 2% 86%  
290 1.1% 84%  
291 0.8% 83%  
292 1.4% 82%  
293 1.5% 81%  
294 2% 79%  
295 1.3% 78%  
296 1.5% 76%  
297 1.0% 75% Last Result
298 0.9% 74%  
299 0.9% 73%  
300 2% 72%  
301 2% 70%  
302 2% 68%  
303 2% 66%  
304 2% 64%  
305 3% 62%  
306 1.3% 60%  
307 1.3% 58%  
308 2% 57%  
309 4% 55%  
310 2% 52% Median
311 0.9% 50%  
312 2% 49%  
313 1.0% 47%  
314 1.3% 46%  
315 2% 44%  
316 1.4% 43%  
317 3% 41%  
318 0.9% 39%  
319 1.4% 38%  
320 4% 36%  
321 1.4% 33%  
322 1.2% 31%  
323 0.9% 30%  
324 1.4% 29%  
325 1.2% 28%  
326 1.4% 26% Majority
327 2% 25%  
328 1.1% 23%  
329 1.2% 22%  
330 1.4% 20%  
331 1.4% 19%  
332 1.4% 18%  
333 2% 16%  
334 0.7% 15%  
335 0.9% 14%  
336 1.1% 13%  
337 2% 12%  
338 1.0% 10%  
339 0.9% 9%  
340 0.7% 8%  
341 0.7% 7%  
342 1.4% 7%  
343 0.8% 5%  
344 0.9% 4%  
345 0.6% 4%  
346 0.7% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.1%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.3% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 99.1%  
274 0.2% 99.0%  
275 0.7% 98.7%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.6% 97%  
279 1.2% 97%  
280 0.5% 96%  
281 1.5% 95%  
282 0.9% 94%  
283 0.9% 93%  
284 0.8% 92%  
285 1.0% 91%  
286 2% 90%  
287 1.1% 88%  
288 1.5% 87%  
289 0.9% 86%  
290 0.8% 85%  
291 2% 84%  
292 1.1% 82%  
293 2% 81%  
294 1.2% 80%  
295 0.9% 78%  
296 2% 78%  
297 2% 76%  
298 1.0% 73%  
299 1.2% 73%  
300 2% 71%  
301 1.1% 70%  
302 0.7% 69%  
303 3% 68%  
304 4% 65%  
305 1.4% 62%  
306 1.2% 60%  
307 1.4% 59%  
308 1.1% 58%  
309 2% 56%  
310 2% 55%  
311 1.5% 53% Median
312 2% 51%  
313 1.1% 50%  
314 2% 49%  
315 3% 47%  
316 3% 44%  
317 0.7% 41%  
318 2% 40%  
319 3% 39%  
320 2% 35%  
321 1.4% 34%  
322 3% 32%  
323 0.5% 30%  
324 2% 29%  
325 0.7% 27%  
326 2% 27% Majority
327 2% 25%  
328 1.2% 23%  
329 2% 22% Last Result
330 1.1% 20%  
331 0.7% 19%  
332 1.4% 18%  
333 1.0% 17%  
334 2% 16%  
335 1.4% 14%  
336 2% 13%  
337 2% 11%  
338 3% 9%  
339 1.3% 7%  
340 1.3% 5%  
341 0.6% 4%  
342 0.4% 4%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.6% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.5%  
348 0.1% 1.2%  
349 0.3% 1.1%  
350 0.2% 0.7%  
351 0.2% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0.2% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.2%  
260 0.3% 99.0%  
261 0.2% 98.8%  
262 0.3% 98.6%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.6% 97%  
267 1.0% 97%  
268 2% 96%  
269 2% 94%  
270 2% 92%  
271 2% 90%  
272 1.2% 88%  
273 1.4% 87%  
274 1.1% 85%  
275 1.2% 84%  
276 1.1% 83%  
277 1.1% 82%  
278 2% 81% Last Result
279 1.3% 79%  
280 1.3% 77%  
281 2% 76%  
282 0.9% 74%  
283 0.8% 73%  
284 0.9% 73%  
285 0.7% 72%  
286 3% 71%  
287 2% 68%  
288 3% 66%  
289 0.8% 63%  
290 2% 63%  
291 4% 61%  
292 2% 57%  
293 2% 55%  
294 2% 53% Median
295 2% 52%  
296 2% 50%  
297 2% 48%  
298 1.2% 46%  
299 1.1% 45%  
300 0.9% 44%  
301 1.3% 43%  
302 3% 42%  
303 1.1% 38%  
304 1.4% 37%  
305 1.4% 36%  
306 1.4% 34%  
307 3% 33%  
308 1.1% 30%  
309 2% 28%  
310 1.3% 26%  
311 1.1% 25%  
312 1.5% 24%  
313 1.0% 23%  
314 2% 22%  
315 1.2% 20%  
316 1.1% 19%  
317 1.2% 18%  
318 0.6% 16%  
319 2% 16%  
320 1.1% 13%  
321 0.9% 12%  
322 1.2% 11%  
323 1.3% 10%  
324 0.7% 9%  
325 0.7% 8%  
326 1.4% 7% Majority
327 0.8% 6%  
328 0.8% 5%  
329 0.6% 4%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 1.3%  
336 0.2% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.2% 99.4%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.3% 98.8%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 1.0% 96%  
262 2% 95%  
263 1.4% 94%  
264 1.3% 92%  
265 2% 91%  
266 1.4% 89%  
267 2% 88%  
268 2% 86%  
269 0.8% 85%  
270 2% 84%  
271 0.8% 82%  
272 2% 81%  
273 1.5% 79%  
274 1.2% 78% Last Result
275 1.2% 77%  
276 0.9% 75%  
277 2% 75%  
278 2% 73%  
279 1.0% 71%  
280 0.7% 70%  
281 2% 69%  
282 2% 67%  
283 2% 65%  
284 1.4% 63%  
285 2% 61%  
286 3% 60%  
287 1.3% 56%  
288 3% 55%  
289 3% 52% Median
290 0.8% 49%  
291 1.1% 49%  
292 1.1% 47%  
293 1.5% 46%  
294 2% 45%  
295 1.2% 43%  
296 1.4% 42%  
297 3% 40%  
298 0.8% 37%  
299 1.2% 36%  
300 1.5% 35%  
301 2% 34%  
302 3% 32%  
303 1.2% 29%  
304 1.4% 27%  
305 2% 26%  
306 1.2% 24%  
307 1.5% 23%  
308 1.0% 22%  
309 2% 21%  
310 0.9% 19%  
311 0.8% 18%  
312 1.1% 17%  
313 0.7% 16%  
314 3% 15%  
315 0.8% 13%  
316 0.9% 12%  
317 2% 11%  
318 1.2% 10%  
319 0.7% 8%  
320 0.6% 8%  
321 1.3% 7%  
322 0.9% 6%  
323 0.7% 5%  
324 0.5% 4%  
325 0.7% 4%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0.5% 2%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.2% 1.3%  
331 0.1% 1.1%  
332 0.3% 1.0%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.1% 99.4%  
244 0.2% 99.3%  
245 0.2% 99.1%  
246 0.3% 98.9%  
247 0.3% 98.7%  
248 0.4% 98%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.7% 97%  
252 0.4% 96%  
253 0.5% 96%  
254 1.4% 96%  
255 0.6% 94%  
256 1.1% 93%  
257 1.3% 92%  
258 0.7% 91%  
259 0.9% 90%  
260 0.6% 89%  
261 2% 89%  
262 1.0% 87%  
263 1.0% 86%  
264 2% 85%  
265 0.7% 83%  
266 1.1% 82%  
267 1.0% 81%  
268 1.1% 80%  
269 1.4% 79%  
270 2% 78%  
271 2% 76%  
272 0.8% 75%  
273 2% 74%  
274 3% 72%  
275 0.7% 69%  
276 1.3% 69%  
277 2% 67%  
278 3% 65%  
279 0.8% 63%  
280 2% 62%  
281 2% 60%  
282 1.4% 58%  
283 1.1% 56%  
284 1.4% 55%  
285 1.1% 54%  
286 1.2% 53% Median
287 2% 51%  
288 2% 50%  
289 2% 48%  
290 2% 45%  
291 1.3% 43%  
292 2% 42%  
293 2% 40%  
294 2% 38%  
295 1.4% 36%  
296 2% 34%  
297 2% 33%  
298 1.2% 31%  
299 2% 29%  
300 0.8% 27%  
301 2% 26%  
302 1.3% 25%  
303 1.4% 23%  
304 0.5% 22%  
305 2% 22%  
306 2% 20%  
307 1.0% 18%  
308 1.2% 17%  
309 1.0% 16%  
310 1.3% 15%  
311 2% 13%  
312 1.2% 12%  
313 2% 10%  
314 2% 9%  
315 1.0% 7%  
316 1.0% 6%  
317 0.9% 5%  
318 0.6% 4%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.4% 3%  
321 0.3% 2% Last Result
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.4%  
325 0.2% 1.1%  
326 0.3% 0.9% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.1% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.3%  
240 0.2% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 98.9%  
242 0.4% 98.7%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.8% 97%  
247 0.6% 96%  
248 0.6% 96%  
249 1.3% 95%  
250 0.9% 94%  
251 1.2% 93%  
252 1.2% 92%  
253 0.8% 91%  
254 0.5% 90%  
255 1.1% 89%  
256 2% 88%  
257 0.7% 86%  
258 1.0% 85%  
259 1.5% 84%  
260 1.0% 83%  
261 2% 82%  
262 0.8% 80%  
263 1.0% 79%  
264 1.4% 78%  
265 2% 77%  
266 1.4% 75%  
267 0.4% 74%  
268 3% 74%  
269 2% 71%  
270 0.7% 69%  
271 2% 68%  
272 2% 66%  
273 3% 64%  
274 1.2% 61%  
275 2% 60%  
276 2% 59%  
277 1.0% 57%  
278 1.1% 56%  
279 1.3% 55%  
280 1.5% 54%  
281 2% 52% Median
282 2% 50%  
283 2% 48%  
284 2% 47%  
285 2% 45%  
286 1.4% 42%  
287 3% 41%  
288 2% 38%  
289 0.9% 36%  
290 2% 36%  
291 2% 33%  
292 2% 31%  
293 0.8% 29%  
294 1.4% 28%  
295 1.4% 27%  
296 1.1% 25%  
297 1.2% 24%  
298 2% 23%  
299 1.0% 21%  
300 1.4% 20%  
301 2% 19%  
302 1.4% 17%  
303 1.2% 16%  
304 0.6% 15%  
305 1.5% 14%  
306 2% 13%  
307 2% 11%  
308 2% 9%  
309 2% 7%  
310 0.7% 6%  
311 1.2% 5%  
312 0.4% 4%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.5% 3%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.3% 2% Last Result
318 0.3% 1.4%  
319 0.3% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.9%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.2% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.5%  
229 0.2% 99.3%  
230 0.2% 99.1%  
231 0.2% 98.9%  
232 0.3% 98.8%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.7% 98%  
235 0.2% 97%  
236 0.2% 97%  
237 0.5% 97%  
238 2% 97%  
239 2% 95%  
240 3% 93%  
241 4% 90%  
242 0.8% 87%  
243 1.0% 86%  
244 0.9% 85%  
245 1.1% 84%  
246 1.1% 83%  
247 1.0% 82%  
248 2% 81%  
249 2% 79%  
250 1.1% 77%  
251 2% 76%  
252 1.3% 74%  
253 0.7% 72%  
254 1.3% 72%  
255 0.3% 70%  
256 2% 70%  
257 3% 68%  
258 2% 65%  
259 3% 63%  
260 2% 60%  
261 1.5% 59%  
262 2% 57%  
263 4% 55%  
264 2% 52% Median
265 2% 50%  
266 2% 48% Last Result
267 2% 46%  
268 1.2% 44%  
269 1.0% 43%  
270 0.4% 42%  
271 1.4% 42%  
272 3% 40%  
273 2% 37%  
274 4% 35%  
275 1.4% 32%  
276 1.0% 30%  
277 1.5% 29%  
278 0.4% 28%  
279 3% 28%  
280 1.2% 25%  
281 1.3% 24%  
282 1.4% 22%  
283 1.1% 21%  
284 1.4% 20%  
285 1.2% 19%  
286 2% 17%  
287 2% 15%  
288 1.0% 14%  
289 1.2% 13%  
290 1.0% 12%  
291 1.1% 11%  
292 0.9% 10%  
293 1.5% 9%  
294 1.0% 7%  
295 1.3% 6%  
296 0.8% 5%  
297 1.1% 4%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0.5% 3%  
300 0.7% 2%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.2% 1.3%  
303 0.2% 1.1%  
304 0.3% 0.9%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.2% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.2% 99.7%  
222 0.2% 99.5%  
223 0.3% 99.3%  
224 0.1% 99.1%  
225 0.3% 98.9%  
226 0.2% 98.7%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 0.8% 98%  
230 0.7% 97%  
231 0.6% 96%  
232 0.7% 96%  
233 2% 95%  
234 1.5% 93%  
235 3% 92%  
236 3% 89%  
237 1.2% 86%  
238 0.8% 85%  
239 0.9% 84%  
240 0.7% 83%  
241 2% 82%  
242 2% 81%  
243 1.5% 79%  
244 2% 78%  
245 1.0% 76%  
246 1.4% 75%  
247 1.4% 73%  
248 0.5% 72%  
249 2% 71%  
250 2% 70%  
251 3% 68%  
252 3% 66%  
253 2% 63%  
254 2% 61%  
255 1.1% 59%  
256 2% 58%  
257 1.2% 56%  
258 3% 55%  
259 3% 51% Median
260 1.1% 48%  
261 2% 47%  
262 1.1% 45% Last Result
263 0.8% 44%  
264 1.4% 43%  
265 0.9% 42%  
266 2% 41%  
267 4% 39%  
268 1.1% 35%  
269 3% 34%  
270 1.0% 31%  
271 0.7% 30%  
272 2% 29%  
273 1.0% 27%  
274 2% 26%  
275 1.1% 24%  
276 1.4% 23%  
277 2% 22%  
278 1.0% 20%  
279 2% 19%  
280 0.9% 17%  
281 2% 16%  
282 1.2% 15%  
283 1.1% 14%  
284 1.4% 12%  
285 0.8% 11%  
286 1.1% 10%  
287 0.9% 9%  
288 1.2% 8%  
289 1.1% 7%  
290 1.3% 6%  
291 0.7% 5%  
292 1.1% 4%  
293 0.3% 3%  
294 0.4% 3%  
295 0.7% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.5%  
297 0.2% 1.2%  
298 0.1% 1.0%  
299 0.4% 0.9%  
300 0.1% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.4%  
303 0.2% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations