Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 7–10 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 30.0% 28.5–31.5% 28.1–31.9% 27.7–32.3% 27.0–33.1%
Conservative Party 42.4% 27.0% 25.6–28.5% 25.2–28.9% 24.8–29.3% 24.2–30.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Brexit Party 0.0% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Green Party 1.6% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Change UK 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 285 264–300 256–304 248–307 234–315
Conservative Party 317 209 191–231 187–241 182–248 174–262
Liberal Democrats 12 72 67–78 65–81 64–84 60–86
Brexit Party 0 10 4–16 2–20 2–22 2–25
Green Party 1 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0% 99.2%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 98.9%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.2% 98.5%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.3% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 0.3% 97%  
251 0.2% 97%  
252 0.5% 97%  
253 0.3% 96%  
254 0.3% 96%  
255 0.3% 96%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 1.4% 95%  
258 0.4% 94%  
259 0.3% 93%  
260 0.6% 93%  
261 0.7% 92%  
262 0.5% 92% Last Result
263 0.6% 91%  
264 1.0% 91%  
265 0.5% 90%  
266 0.6% 89%  
267 0.6% 88%  
268 1.3% 88%  
269 2% 87%  
270 1.0% 85%  
271 1.3% 84%  
272 2% 82%  
273 2% 81%  
274 2% 79%  
275 0.9% 78%  
276 3% 77%  
277 2% 74%  
278 1.4% 72%  
279 2% 70%  
280 5% 68%  
281 2% 64%  
282 4% 61%  
283 4% 58%  
284 2% 53%  
285 3% 51% Median
286 5% 48%  
287 3% 43%  
288 3% 40%  
289 3% 36%  
290 4% 34%  
291 2% 30%  
292 2% 28%  
293 3% 26%  
294 2% 23%  
295 2% 21%  
296 2% 19%  
297 2% 16%  
298 2% 15%  
299 2% 13%  
300 2% 10%  
301 2% 9%  
302 1.1% 7%  
303 0.7% 6%  
304 1.1% 5%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.7% 4%  
307 0.5% 3%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.3%  
312 0.1% 1.1%  
313 0.2% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.7%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 0.1% 99.3%  
176 0.2% 99.2%  
177 0.2% 99.0%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 0.1% 98.5%  
180 0.4% 98%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.4% 97%  
184 0.7% 97%  
185 0.6% 96%  
186 0.4% 96%  
187 1.1% 95%  
188 0.5% 94%  
189 1.1% 94%  
190 0.8% 93%  
191 2% 92%  
192 0.8% 90%  
193 1.3% 89%  
194 2% 87%  
195 1.5% 85%  
196 1.4% 84%  
197 2% 82%  
198 2% 81%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 3% 74%  
202 3% 71%  
203 3% 67%  
204 4% 65%  
205 2% 60%  
206 2% 58%  
207 3% 55%  
208 2% 53%  
209 2% 51% Median
210 2% 49%  
211 3% 47%  
212 4% 44%  
213 3% 40%  
214 5% 37%  
215 2% 32%  
216 2% 29%  
217 2% 27%  
218 2% 25%  
219 2% 23%  
220 2% 22%  
221 1.1% 20%  
222 1.0% 19%  
223 2% 18%  
224 0.6% 16%  
225 0.6% 16%  
226 1.3% 15%  
227 0.6% 14%  
228 1.0% 13%  
229 1.0% 12%  
230 0.4% 11%  
231 0.7% 11%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.4% 10%  
234 0.8% 9%  
235 0.8% 8%  
236 0.2% 8%  
237 0.7% 7%  
238 0.4% 7%  
239 0.4% 6%  
240 0.4% 6%  
241 2% 6%  
242 0.3% 4%  
243 0.3% 4%  
244 0.3% 3%  
245 0.1% 3%  
246 0.1% 3%  
247 0.2% 3%  
248 0.2% 3%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.1% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.2% 2%  
255 0% 1.4%  
256 0.1% 1.4%  
257 0.2% 1.3%  
258 0.2% 1.1%  
259 0.1% 0.8%  
260 0% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0% 0.5%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 100%  
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 0.1% 99.2%  
62 0.2% 99.1%  
63 0.9% 98.9%  
64 2% 98%  
65 1.1% 96%  
66 2% 95%  
67 5% 93%  
68 9% 87%  
69 5% 79%  
70 8% 74%  
71 10% 66%  
72 7% 56% Median
73 15% 49%  
74 8% 34%  
75 6% 26%  
76 4% 20%  
77 2% 15%  
78 4% 14%  
79 1.2% 9%  
80 0.9% 8%  
81 4% 7%  
82 0.6% 3%  
83 0.3% 3%  
84 0.9% 3%  
85 1.0% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 1.1% 92%  
4 5% 91%  
5 8% 86%  
6 8% 78%  
7 7% 71%  
8 2% 64%  
9 7% 62%  
10 6% 54% Median
11 7% 49%  
12 8% 42%  
13 5% 34%  
14 10% 29%  
15 7% 19%  
16 4% 12%  
17 2% 9%  
18 0.7% 7%  
19 0.8% 6%  
20 0.9% 5%  
21 2% 4%  
22 0.9% 3%  
23 0.7% 2%  
24 0.4% 1.1%  
25 0.3% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.6% 100%  
3 55% 99.4% Median
4 13% 45%  
5 32% 32%  
6 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Change UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Change UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 274 357 96% 335–374 327–378 317–383 304–391
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 357 96% 335–374 327–378 317–383 304–391
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK 329 281 1.2% 266–302 262–311 258–318 250–332
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 281 1.2% 266–302 262–311 258–318 250–332
Labour Party – Change UK 262 285 0.1% 264–300 256–304 248–307 234–315
Labour Party 262 285 0.1% 264–300 256–304 248–307 234–315
Conservative Party – Change UK 317 209 0% 191–231 187–241 182–248 174–262
Conservative Party 317 209 0% 191–231 187–241 182–248 174–262

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100% Last Result
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.1% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.2%  
309 0.1% 99.1%  
310 0.2% 99.0%  
311 0.4% 98.8%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0.1% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.2% 98%  
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0.3% 97%  
320 0.2% 97%  
321 0.3% 97%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0.1% 96%  
324 0.3% 96%  
325 0.2% 96%  
326 0.6% 96% Majority
327 1.1% 95%  
328 0.5% 94%  
329 0.4% 94%  
330 0.3% 93%  
331 0.7% 93%  
332 0.8% 92%  
333 0.7% 91%  
334 0.6% 91%  
335 0.3% 90%  
336 0.5% 90%  
337 0.5% 89%  
338 1.2% 89%  
339 0.9% 88%  
340 0.9% 87%  
341 0.8% 86%  
342 2% 85%  
343 2% 83%  
344 2% 82%  
345 1.4% 79%  
346 1.1% 78%  
347 2% 77%  
348 1.3% 75%  
349 2% 74%  
350 4% 71%  
351 0.9% 68%  
352 3% 67%  
353 3% 65%  
354 3% 62%  
355 3% 59%  
356 4% 56%  
357 2% 52% Median
358 6% 50%  
359 4% 44%  
360 3% 40%  
361 2% 38%  
362 3% 35%  
363 3% 33%  
364 2% 30%  
365 2% 28%  
366 2% 26%  
367 4% 24%  
368 2% 20%  
369 2% 19%  
370 2% 17%  
371 1.0% 15%  
372 2% 14%  
373 2% 13%  
374 2% 11%  
375 2% 9%  
376 1.1% 8%  
377 1.3% 6%  
378 0.6% 5%  
379 0.8% 5%  
380 0.6% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.4% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.2% 1.3%  
388 0.2% 1.2%  
389 0.2% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100% Last Result
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.1% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.2%  
309 0.1% 99.1%  
310 0.2% 99.0%  
311 0.4% 98.8%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0.1% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.2% 98%  
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0.3% 97%  
320 0.2% 97%  
321 0.3% 97%  
322 0.2% 96%  
323 0.1% 96%  
324 0.3% 96%  
325 0.2% 96%  
326 0.6% 96% Majority
327 1.1% 95%  
328 0.5% 94%  
329 0.4% 94%  
330 0.3% 93%  
331 0.7% 93%  
332 0.8% 92%  
333 0.7% 91%  
334 0.6% 91%  
335 0.3% 90%  
336 0.5% 90%  
337 0.5% 89%  
338 1.2% 89%  
339 0.9% 88%  
340 0.9% 87%  
341 0.8% 86%  
342 2% 85%  
343 2% 83%  
344 2% 82%  
345 1.4% 79%  
346 1.1% 78%  
347 2% 77%  
348 1.3% 75%  
349 2% 74%  
350 4% 71%  
351 0.9% 68%  
352 3% 67%  
353 3% 65%  
354 3% 62%  
355 3% 59%  
356 4% 56%  
357 2% 52% Median
358 6% 50%  
359 4% 44%  
360 3% 40%  
361 2% 38%  
362 3% 35%  
363 3% 33%  
364 2% 30%  
365 2% 28%  
366 2% 26%  
367 4% 24%  
368 2% 20%  
369 2% 19%  
370 2% 17%  
371 1.0% 15%  
372 2% 14%  
373 2% 13%  
374 2% 11%  
375 2% 9%  
376 1.1% 8%  
377 1.3% 6%  
378 0.6% 5%  
379 0.8% 5%  
380 0.6% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.4% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.2% 1.3%  
388 0.2% 1.2%  
389 0.2% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0.1% 99.3%  
254 0.2% 99.2%  
255 0.3% 99.0%  
256 0.4% 98.6%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 0.5% 96%  
261 0.6% 96%  
262 0.8% 95%  
263 1.0% 95%  
264 0.8% 93%  
265 2% 93%  
266 1.3% 91%  
267 2% 89%  
268 2% 88%  
269 2% 86%  
270 2% 83%  
271 3% 81%  
272 2% 79%  
273 3% 76%  
274 3% 73%  
275 2% 70%  
276 3% 68%  
277 2% 65%  
278 4% 63%  
279 5% 60%  
280 3% 54%  
281 3% 51% Median
282 4% 48%  
283 4% 44%  
284 3% 40%  
285 3% 37%  
286 2% 34%  
287 3% 32%  
288 3% 29%  
289 2% 26%  
290 2% 24%  
291 1.2% 23%  
292 1.3% 21%  
293 2% 20%  
294 2% 18%  
295 1.0% 16%  
296 1.2% 15%  
297 0.5% 14%  
298 0.8% 13%  
299 1.0% 13%  
300 0.9% 11%  
301 0.4% 11%  
302 0.7% 10%  
303 1.0% 10%  
304 0.5% 8%  
305 0.5% 8%  
306 0.3% 8%  
307 0.2% 7%  
308 0.3% 7%  
309 0.3% 7%  
310 0.4% 6%  
311 2% 6%  
312 0.5% 4%  
313 0.4% 4%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.1% 3%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.3%  
325 0.1% 1.3%  
326 0% 1.2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0% 0.6% Last Result
330 0% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0.1% 99.3%  
254 0.2% 99.2%  
255 0.3% 99.0%  
256 0.4% 98.6%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 0.5% 96%  
261 0.6% 96%  
262 0.8% 95%  
263 1.0% 95%  
264 0.8% 93%  
265 2% 93%  
266 1.3% 91%  
267 2% 89%  
268 2% 88%  
269 2% 86%  
270 2% 83%  
271 3% 81%  
272 2% 79%  
273 3% 76%  
274 3% 73%  
275 2% 70%  
276 3% 68%  
277 2% 65%  
278 4% 63%  
279 5% 60%  
280 3% 54%  
281 3% 51% Median
282 4% 48%  
283 4% 44%  
284 3% 40%  
285 3% 37%  
286 2% 34%  
287 3% 32%  
288 3% 29%  
289 2% 26%  
290 2% 24%  
291 1.2% 23%  
292 1.3% 21%  
293 2% 20%  
294 2% 18%  
295 1.0% 16%  
296 1.2% 15%  
297 0.5% 14%  
298 0.8% 13%  
299 1.0% 13%  
300 0.9% 11%  
301 0.4% 11%  
302 0.7% 10%  
303 1.0% 10%  
304 0.5% 8%  
305 0.5% 8%  
306 0.3% 8%  
307 0.2% 7%  
308 0.3% 7%  
309 0.3% 7%  
310 0.4% 6%  
311 2% 6%  
312 0.5% 4%  
313 0.4% 4%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.1% 3%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.3%  
325 0.1% 1.3%  
326 0% 1.2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 1.0%  
329 0% 0.6% Last Result
330 0% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0% 99.2%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 98.9%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.2% 98.5%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.3% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 0.3% 97%  
251 0.2% 97%  
252 0.5% 97%  
253 0.3% 96%  
254 0.3% 96%  
255 0.3% 96%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 1.4% 95%  
258 0.4% 94%  
259 0.3% 93%  
260 0.6% 93%  
261 0.7% 92%  
262 0.5% 92% Last Result
263 0.6% 91%  
264 1.0% 91%  
265 0.5% 90%  
266 0.6% 89%  
267 0.6% 88%  
268 1.3% 88%  
269 2% 87%  
270 1.0% 85%  
271 1.3% 84%  
272 2% 82%  
273 2% 81%  
274 2% 79%  
275 0.9% 78%  
276 3% 77%  
277 2% 74%  
278 1.4% 72%  
279 2% 70%  
280 5% 68%  
281 2% 64%  
282 4% 61%  
283 4% 58%  
284 2% 53%  
285 3% 51% Median
286 5% 48%  
287 3% 43%  
288 3% 40%  
289 3% 36%  
290 4% 34%  
291 2% 30%  
292 2% 28%  
293 3% 26%  
294 2% 23%  
295 2% 21%  
296 2% 19%  
297 2% 16%  
298 2% 15%  
299 2% 13%  
300 2% 10%  
301 2% 9%  
302 1.1% 7%  
303 0.7% 6%  
304 1.1% 5%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.7% 4%  
307 0.5% 3%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.3%  
312 0.1% 1.1%  
313 0.2% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.7%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0% 99.2%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 98.9%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.2% 98.5%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.3% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 0.3% 97%  
251 0.2% 97%  
252 0.5% 97%  
253 0.3% 96%  
254 0.3% 96%  
255 0.3% 96%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 1.4% 95%  
258 0.4% 94%  
259 0.3% 93%  
260 0.6% 93%  
261 0.7% 92%  
262 0.5% 92% Last Result
263 0.6% 91%  
264 1.0% 91%  
265 0.5% 90%  
266 0.6% 89%  
267 0.6% 88%  
268 1.3% 88%  
269 2% 87%  
270 1.0% 85%  
271 1.3% 84%  
272 2% 82%  
273 2% 81%  
274 2% 79%  
275 0.9% 78%  
276 3% 77%  
277 2% 74%  
278 1.4% 72%  
279 2% 70%  
280 5% 68%  
281 2% 64%  
282 4% 61%  
283 4% 58%  
284 2% 53%  
285 3% 51% Median
286 5% 48%  
287 3% 43%  
288 3% 40%  
289 3% 36%  
290 4% 34%  
291 2% 30%  
292 2% 28%  
293 3% 26%  
294 2% 23%  
295 2% 21%  
296 2% 19%  
297 2% 16%  
298 2% 15%  
299 2% 13%  
300 2% 10%  
301 2% 9%  
302 1.1% 7%  
303 0.7% 6%  
304 1.1% 5%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.7% 4%  
307 0.5% 3%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.3% 1.3%  
312 0.1% 1.1%  
313 0.2% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.7%  
315 0.2% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Change UK

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 0.1% 99.3%  
176 0.2% 99.2%  
177 0.2% 99.0%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 0.1% 98.5%  
180 0.4% 98%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.4% 97%  
184 0.7% 97%  
185 0.6% 96%  
186 0.4% 96%  
187 1.1% 95%  
188 0.5% 94%  
189 1.1% 94%  
190 0.8% 93%  
191 2% 92%  
192 0.8% 90%  
193 1.3% 89%  
194 2% 87%  
195 1.5% 85%  
196 1.4% 84%  
197 2% 82%  
198 2% 81%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 3% 74%  
202 3% 71%  
203 3% 67%  
204 4% 65%  
205 2% 60%  
206 2% 58%  
207 3% 55%  
208 2% 53%  
209 2% 51% Median
210 2% 49%  
211 3% 47%  
212 4% 44%  
213 3% 40%  
214 5% 37%  
215 2% 32%  
216 2% 29%  
217 2% 27%  
218 2% 25%  
219 2% 23%  
220 2% 22%  
221 1.1% 20%  
222 1.0% 19%  
223 2% 18%  
224 0.6% 16%  
225 0.6% 16%  
226 1.3% 15%  
227 0.6% 14%  
228 1.0% 13%  
229 1.0% 12%  
230 0.4% 11%  
231 0.7% 11%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.4% 10%  
234 0.8% 9%  
235 0.8% 8%  
236 0.2% 8%  
237 0.7% 7%  
238 0.4% 7%  
239 0.4% 6%  
240 0.4% 6%  
241 2% 6%  
242 0.3% 4%  
243 0.3% 4%  
244 0.3% 3%  
245 0.1% 3%  
246 0.1% 3%  
247 0.2% 3%  
248 0.2% 3%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.1% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.2% 2%  
255 0% 1.4%  
256 0.1% 1.4%  
257 0.2% 1.3%  
258 0.2% 1.1%  
259 0.1% 0.8%  
260 0% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0% 0.5%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.7%  
171 0.1% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0% 99.5%  
174 0.2% 99.5%  
175 0.1% 99.3%  
176 0.2% 99.2%  
177 0.2% 99.0%  
178 0.2% 98.7%  
179 0.1% 98.5%  
180 0.4% 98%  
181 0.2% 98%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.4% 97%  
184 0.7% 97%  
185 0.6% 96%  
186 0.4% 96%  
187 1.1% 95%  
188 0.5% 94%  
189 1.1% 94%  
190 0.8% 93%  
191 2% 92%  
192 0.8% 90%  
193 1.3% 89%  
194 2% 87%  
195 1.5% 85%  
196 1.4% 84%  
197 2% 82%  
198 2% 81%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 3% 74%  
202 3% 71%  
203 3% 67%  
204 4% 65%  
205 2% 60%  
206 2% 58%  
207 3% 55%  
208 2% 53%  
209 2% 51% Median
210 2% 49%  
211 3% 47%  
212 4% 44%  
213 3% 40%  
214 5% 37%  
215 2% 32%  
216 2% 29%  
217 2% 27%  
218 2% 25%  
219 2% 23%  
220 2% 22%  
221 1.1% 20%  
222 1.0% 19%  
223 2% 18%  
224 0.6% 16%  
225 0.6% 16%  
226 1.3% 15%  
227 0.6% 14%  
228 1.0% 13%  
229 1.0% 12%  
230 0.4% 11%  
231 0.7% 11%  
232 0.3% 10%  
233 0.4% 10%  
234 0.8% 9%  
235 0.8% 8%  
236 0.2% 8%  
237 0.7% 7%  
238 0.4% 7%  
239 0.4% 6%  
240 0.4% 6%  
241 2% 6%  
242 0.3% 4%  
243 0.3% 4%  
244 0.3% 3%  
245 0.1% 3%  
246 0.1% 3%  
247 0.2% 3%  
248 0.2% 3%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.1% 2%  
251 0.3% 2%  
252 0.1% 2%  
253 0.1% 2%  
254 0.2% 2%  
255 0% 1.4%  
256 0.1% 1.4%  
257 0.2% 1.3%  
258 0.2% 1.1%  
259 0.1% 0.8%  
260 0% 0.7%  
261 0.1% 0.7%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0% 0.5%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0% 0.4%  
266 0% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations