Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 29–30 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 36.3% 34.8–37.8% 34.4–38.2% 34.1–38.6% 33.4–39.3%
Labour Party 41.0% 21.1% 19.9–22.4% 19.6–22.8% 19.3–23.1% 18.7–23.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 18.1% 17.0–19.3% 16.6–19.7% 16.4–20.0% 15.8–20.6%
Brexit Party 0.0% 13.1% 12.1–14.2% 11.8–14.5% 11.6–14.8% 11.1–15.3%
Green Party 1.7% 6.1% 5.4–6.9% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.1% 3.5–4.7% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 366 343–382 338–388 333–391 328–402
Labour Party 262 147 136–168 132–174 129–176 119–181
Liberal Democrats 12 60 50–65 50–66 49–68 48–71
Brexit Party 0 3 1–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Green Party 1 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Scottish National Party 35 52 48–54 45–54 44–54 39–54
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7% Majority
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.3% 99.1%  
331 0.4% 98.9%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.6% 97%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 0.8% 96%  
337 0.3% 95%  
338 0.7% 95%  
339 0.8% 94%  
340 1.0% 94%  
341 1.0% 93%  
342 0.9% 92%  
343 1.0% 91%  
344 1.0% 90%  
345 0.5% 89%  
346 0.7% 88%  
347 2% 87%  
348 0.9% 86%  
349 0.8% 85%  
350 0.8% 84%  
351 1.1% 83%  
352 0.4% 82%  
353 1.2% 82%  
354 1.2% 81%  
355 2% 79%  
356 1.3% 77%  
357 1.3% 76%  
358 2% 75%  
359 3% 73%  
360 3% 70%  
361 2% 67%  
362 4% 65%  
363 4% 61%  
364 3% 57%  
365 2% 55%  
366 4% 53% Median
367 3% 49%  
368 2% 45%  
369 4% 43%  
370 3% 39%  
371 3% 36%  
372 3% 34%  
373 2% 30%  
374 4% 28%  
375 2% 23%  
376 1.3% 21%  
377 2% 20%  
378 2% 18%  
379 2% 16%  
380 1.0% 14%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 11%  
383 1.5% 9%  
384 0.8% 8%  
385 1.0% 7%  
386 0.4% 6%  
387 0.5% 6%  
388 2% 5%  
389 0.5% 4%  
390 0.3% 3%  
391 0.6% 3%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.4%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.1% 1.0%  
398 0.1% 0.9%  
399 0.1% 0.7%  
400 0.1% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.1% 99.4%  
121 0% 99.4%  
122 0.1% 99.4%  
123 0.1% 99.2%  
124 0.4% 99.1%  
125 0.2% 98.8%  
126 0.2% 98.6%  
127 0.3% 98%  
128 0.4% 98%  
129 0.6% 98%  
130 0.7% 97%  
131 0.7% 96%  
132 0.8% 96%  
133 2% 95%  
134 0.8% 93%  
135 1.4% 92%  
136 2% 91%  
137 2% 89%  
138 2% 87%  
139 4% 85%  
140 4% 81%  
141 6% 77%  
142 3% 71%  
143 2% 68%  
144 2% 66%  
145 4% 63%  
146 5% 59%  
147 6% 54% Median
148 4% 48%  
149 5% 45%  
150 6% 39%  
151 4% 34%  
152 2% 30%  
153 0.5% 28%  
154 0.9% 28%  
155 2% 27%  
156 1.4% 24%  
157 2% 23%  
158 2% 21%  
159 1.1% 19%  
160 0.9% 18%  
161 0.9% 17%  
162 1.3% 16%  
163 0.9% 15%  
164 0.7% 14%  
165 0.7% 13%  
166 0.9% 12%  
167 1.4% 12%  
168 0.9% 10%  
169 0.7% 9%  
170 0.9% 9%  
171 1.0% 8%  
172 0.5% 7%  
173 1.1% 6%  
174 1.2% 5%  
175 0.4% 4%  
176 1.0% 3%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.7% 2%  
179 0.2% 1.0%  
180 0.3% 0.8%  
181 0.3% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.6% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 8% 97%  
51 4% 89%  
52 4% 85%  
53 1.2% 81%  
54 1.1% 80%  
55 2% 79%  
56 5% 77%  
57 7% 72%  
58 3% 65%  
59 9% 62%  
60 8% 53% Median
61 10% 45%  
62 9% 35%  
63 11% 26%  
64 5% 15%  
65 3% 10%  
66 3% 7%  
67 1.1% 4%  
68 1.0% 3%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.4%  
71 0.3% 0.7%  
72 0.1% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 17% 91%  
2 23% 74%  
3 11% 51% Median
4 25% 40%  
5 8% 15%  
6 6% 7%  
7 1.0% 1.3%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 19% 99.7%  
4 78% 81% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.4%  
41 0.1% 98.9%  
42 0.2% 98.9%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 0.2% 98%  
45 3% 97%  
46 4% 95%  
47 0.3% 91%  
48 10% 91%  
49 6% 80%  
50 7% 74%  
51 9% 66%  
52 20% 57% Median
53 2% 38%  
54 36% 36%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 6% 52% Median
2 4% 45%  
3 30% 41%  
4 10% 11% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 425 100% 404–439 399–443 395–447 390–457
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 419 100% 396–434 390–438 387–442 381–453
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 417 100% 394–433 389–437 385–442 379–451
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 369 99.9% 346–384 341–389 337–393 331–403
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 367 99.8% 346–383 339–388 335–392 329–403
Conservative Party 317 366 99.7% 343–382 338–388 333–391 328–402
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 263 0% 248–286 243–291 239–295 229–301
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 259 0% 244–282 240–287 236–291 225–297
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 258 0% 243–280 239–286 234–289 224–295
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 208 0% 193–230 189–236 185–239 175–245
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 206 0% 192–228 188–234 184–238 173–243
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 200 0% 187–221 183–226 180–230 170–235
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 199 0% 186–219 182–225 178–228 169–233
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 149 0% 138–170 134–175 130–178 120–182
Labour Party 262 147 0% 136–168 132–174 129–176 119–181

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.2% 99.8%  
390 0.3% 99.6%  
391 0.2% 99.3%  
392 0.5% 99.2%  
393 0.6% 98.7%  
394 0.3% 98%  
395 0.6% 98%  
396 1.0% 97%  
397 0.8% 96%  
398 0.4% 95%  
399 0.6% 95%  
400 1.2% 94%  
401 1.1% 93%  
402 0.8% 92%  
403 0.8% 91%  
404 0.7% 90%  
405 0.8% 90%  
406 1.0% 89%  
407 1.4% 88%  
408 0.9% 87%  
409 1.0% 86%  
410 1.5% 85%  
411 0.8% 83%  
412 1.1% 82%  
413 0.7% 81%  
414 2% 81%  
415 2% 79%  
416 0.7% 77%  
417 2% 76%  
418 2% 74%  
419 3% 72%  
420 3% 70%  
421 4% 67%  
422 3% 63%  
423 4% 60%  
424 4% 55%  
425 2% 51%  
426 3% 49% Median
427 5% 46%  
428 3% 41%  
429 1.5% 38%  
430 5% 37%  
431 4% 32%  
432 3% 28%  
433 5% 25%  
434 2% 20%  
435 2% 18%  
436 2% 17%  
437 2% 15%  
438 2% 12%  
439 0.8% 10%  
440 2% 9%  
441 1.2% 7%  
442 0.6% 6%  
443 1.3% 6%  
444 0.7% 4%  
445 0.5% 4%  
446 0.5% 3%  
447 0.7% 3%  
448 0.2% 2%  
449 0.3% 2%  
450 0.3% 1.4%  
451 0.1% 1.2%  
452 0.1% 1.0%  
453 0.2% 0.9%  
454 0.1% 0.7%  
455 0% 0.6%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0% 0.4%  
459 0% 0.4%  
460 0% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0% 0.3%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.5%  
382 0.3% 99.4%  
383 0.3% 99.2%  
384 0.1% 98.9%  
385 0.8% 98.8%  
386 0.5% 98%  
387 0.4% 98%  
388 0.7% 97%  
389 0.7% 96%  
390 0.8% 96%  
391 0.6% 95%  
392 1.1% 94%  
393 0.9% 93%  
394 1.3% 92%  
395 0.7% 91%  
396 0.7% 90%  
397 0.6% 90%  
398 0.9% 89%  
399 1.0% 88%  
400 0.7% 87%  
401 1.4% 86%  
402 1.3% 85%  
403 0.4% 84%  
404 0.5% 83%  
405 1.0% 83%  
406 1.2% 82%  
407 2% 81%  
408 0.6% 78%  
409 1.5% 78%  
410 0.8% 76%  
411 1.2% 75%  
412 2% 74%  
413 3% 72%  
414 4% 69%  
415 3% 65%  
416 3% 62%  
417 5% 60%  
418 3% 54%  
419 4% 52% Median
420 4% 48%  
421 3% 45%  
422 4% 42%  
423 3% 38%  
424 3% 35%  
425 5% 32%  
426 3% 27%  
427 3% 24%  
428 1.3% 22%  
429 3% 20%  
430 2% 17%  
431 2% 15%  
432 0.7% 14%  
433 2% 13%  
434 2% 11%  
435 2% 9%  
436 1.0% 7%  
437 0.7% 6%  
438 0.5% 6%  
439 0.5% 5%  
440 0.9% 5%  
441 0.3% 4%  
442 0.9% 3%  
443 0.3% 2%  
444 0.3% 2%  
445 0.2% 2%  
446 0.3% 2%  
447 0.2% 1.3%  
448 0.1% 1.1%  
449 0.1% 1.0%  
450 0.2% 0.8%  
451 0% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.6%  
453 0% 0.5%  
454 0% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.5%  
456 0.1% 0.4%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.1% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.5%  
381 0.1% 99.3%  
382 0.6% 99.2%  
383 0.4% 98.6%  
384 0.4% 98%  
385 0.5% 98%  
386 0.5% 97%  
387 0.5% 97%  
388 0.7% 96%  
389 0.8% 96%  
390 1.1% 95%  
391 0.8% 94%  
392 1.2% 93%  
393 0.8% 92%  
394 0.8% 91%  
395 1.3% 90%  
396 0.7% 89%  
397 0.9% 88%  
398 0.9% 87%  
399 0.9% 86%  
400 0.6% 85%  
401 1.1% 85%  
402 1.0% 84%  
403 0.9% 83%  
404 0.7% 82%  
405 1.1% 81%  
406 0.6% 80%  
407 2% 79%  
408 0.7% 77%  
409 2% 76%  
410 1.4% 74%  
411 4% 73%  
412 2% 69%  
413 2% 67%  
414 3% 64%  
415 4% 61%  
416 5% 56%  
417 3% 51%  
418 2% 49% Median
419 3% 46%  
420 3% 43%  
421 2% 40%  
422 3% 38%  
423 4% 35%  
424 4% 31%  
425 3% 26%  
426 3% 23%  
427 2% 20%  
428 1.4% 18%  
429 2% 16%  
430 1.1% 14%  
431 2% 13%  
432 1.1% 12%  
433 1.5% 10%  
434 2% 9%  
435 1.1% 7%  
436 0.7% 6%  
437 0.3% 5%  
438 0.4% 5%  
439 0.4% 4%  
440 1.0% 4%  
441 0.5% 3%  
442 0.6% 3%  
443 0.3% 2%  
444 0.2% 2%  
445 0.1% 1.5%  
446 0.3% 1.3%  
447 0.2% 1.0%  
448 0.1% 0.9%  
449 0.1% 0.8%  
450 0.2% 0.7%  
451 0% 0.5%  
452 0% 0.5%  
453 0% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.7%  
331 0.1% 99.6%  
332 0.3% 99.5%  
333 0.2% 99.2%  
334 0.3% 99.0%  
335 0.4% 98.7%  
336 0.4% 98%  
337 0.5% 98%  
338 0.8% 97%  
339 0.7% 97%  
340 0.5% 96%  
341 0.8% 95%  
342 0.7% 95%  
343 0.7% 94%  
344 1.0% 93%  
345 0.9% 92%  
346 1.5% 91%  
347 0.8% 90%  
348 0.7% 89%  
349 1.1% 88%  
350 0.6% 87%  
351 2% 87%  
352 0.4% 85%  
353 0.8% 85%  
354 0.9% 84%  
355 2% 83%  
356 1.2% 81%  
357 0.5% 80%  
358 0.8% 80%  
359 2% 79%  
360 2% 76%  
361 2% 75%  
362 2% 72%  
363 2% 70%  
364 5% 68%  
365 3% 63%  
366 2% 60%  
367 3% 58%  
368 4% 55%  
369 2% 51% Median
370 5% 49%  
371 3% 44%  
372 3% 42%  
373 3% 39%  
374 3% 36%  
375 3% 33%  
376 6% 30%  
377 2% 24%  
378 1.2% 22%  
379 3% 21%  
380 2% 18%  
381 2% 16%  
382 2% 15%  
383 1.4% 13%  
384 2% 12%  
385 1.3% 10%  
386 2% 8%  
387 0.8% 7%  
388 0.2% 6%  
389 2% 6%  
390 0.6% 4%  
391 0.4% 3%  
392 0.5% 3%  
393 0.5% 3%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.3% 2%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.1% 1.2%  
398 0.1% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 0.9%  
400 0.1% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.7%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.8% Majority
327 0.1% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.6%  
330 0.2% 99.5%  
331 0.3% 99.3%  
332 0.4% 99.0%  
333 0.3% 98.6%  
334 0.5% 98%  
335 0.3% 98%  
336 0.7% 97%  
337 0.7% 97%  
338 0.6% 96%  
339 0.8% 95%  
340 1.0% 95%  
341 0.9% 94%  
342 0.9% 93%  
343 0.7% 92%  
344 0.7% 91%  
345 0.5% 91%  
346 0.9% 90%  
347 2% 89%  
348 1.4% 87%  
349 0.8% 86%  
350 0.6% 85%  
351 0.4% 85%  
352 0.8% 84%  
353 2% 84%  
354 2% 82%  
355 2% 80%  
356 0.4% 79%  
357 1.2% 78%  
358 2% 77%  
359 2% 75%  
360 2% 74%  
361 1.3% 72%  
362 5% 71%  
363 4% 66%  
364 2% 62%  
365 2% 60%  
366 5% 58%  
367 3% 53% Median
368 2% 50%  
369 4% 48%  
370 2% 44%  
371 4% 42%  
372 2% 38%  
373 4% 35%  
374 3% 31%  
375 2% 28%  
376 2% 26%  
377 3% 23%  
378 2% 21%  
379 2% 18%  
380 1.2% 16%  
381 2% 15%  
382 2% 13%  
383 1.4% 11%  
384 0.8% 9%  
385 2% 9%  
386 0.7% 7%  
387 0.4% 6%  
388 2% 6%  
389 0.2% 4%  
390 0.7% 4%  
391 0.6% 3%  
392 0.4% 3%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.4% 2%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.1% 1.3%  
397 0.1% 1.2%  
398 0.1% 1.0%  
399 0.1% 0.9%  
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.6%  
403 0% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7% Majority
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.3% 99.1%  
331 0.4% 98.9%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.6% 97%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 0.8% 96%  
337 0.3% 95%  
338 0.7% 95%  
339 0.8% 94%  
340 1.0% 94%  
341 1.0% 93%  
342 0.9% 92%  
343 1.0% 91%  
344 1.0% 90%  
345 0.5% 89%  
346 0.7% 88%  
347 2% 87%  
348 0.9% 86%  
349 0.8% 85%  
350 0.8% 84%  
351 1.1% 83%  
352 0.4% 82%  
353 1.2% 82%  
354 1.2% 81%  
355 2% 79%  
356 1.3% 77%  
357 1.3% 76%  
358 2% 75%  
359 3% 73%  
360 3% 70%  
361 2% 67%  
362 4% 65%  
363 4% 61%  
364 3% 57%  
365 2% 55%  
366 4% 53% Median
367 3% 49%  
368 2% 45%  
369 4% 43%  
370 3% 39%  
371 3% 36%  
372 3% 34%  
373 2% 30%  
374 4% 28%  
375 2% 23%  
376 1.3% 21%  
377 2% 20%  
378 2% 18%  
379 2% 16%  
380 1.0% 14%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 11%  
383 1.5% 9%  
384 0.8% 8%  
385 1.0% 7%  
386 0.4% 6%  
387 0.5% 6%  
388 2% 5%  
389 0.5% 4%  
390 0.3% 3%  
391 0.6% 3%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.4%  
396 0.1% 1.1%  
397 0.1% 1.0%  
398 0.1% 0.9%  
399 0.1% 0.7%  
400 0.1% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0% 99.5%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0.1% 99.4%  
232 0.1% 99.3%  
233 0.1% 99.2%  
234 0.1% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 99.0%  
236 0.4% 98.8%  
237 0.3% 98%  
238 0.3% 98%  
239 0.5% 98%  
240 0.5% 97%  
241 0.4% 97%  
242 0.6% 97%  
243 2% 96%  
244 0.2% 94%  
245 0.8% 94%  
246 2% 93%  
247 1.3% 92%  
248 2% 90%  
249 1.4% 88%  
250 2% 87%  
251 2% 85%  
252 2% 84%  
253 3% 82%  
254 1.2% 79%  
255 2% 78%  
256 6% 76%  
257 3% 70%  
258 3% 67%  
259 3% 64%  
260 3% 61%  
261 3% 58%  
262 5% 56%  
263 2% 51%  
264 4% 49% Median
265 3% 45%  
266 2% 42%  
267 3% 40%  
268 5% 37%  
269 2% 32%  
270 2% 30%  
271 2% 28%  
272 2% 25%  
273 2% 24%  
274 0.8% 21%  
275 0.5% 20%  
276 1.2% 20%  
277 2% 19%  
278 0.9% 17%  
279 0.8% 16%  
280 0.4% 15%  
281 2% 15%  
282 0.6% 13%  
283 1.1% 13%  
284 0.7% 12%  
285 0.8% 11%  
286 1.5% 10%  
287 0.9% 9%  
288 1.0% 8%  
289 0.7% 7%  
290 0.7% 6%  
291 0.8% 5%  
292 0.5% 5%  
293 0.7% 4%  
294 0.8% 3%  
295 0.5% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.4% 2%  
298 0.3% 1.3%  
299 0.2% 1.0%  
300 0.3% 0.8%  
301 0.1% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0% 99.8%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0% 99.5%  
226 0.1% 99.5%  
227 0.2% 99.4%  
228 0% 99.2%  
229 0.1% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 99.1%  
231 0.1% 99.0%  
232 0.4% 98.8%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 0.6% 98%  
237 0.2% 97%  
238 0.6% 97%  
239 1.0% 96%  
240 1.1% 95%  
241 0.5% 94%  
242 1.4% 94%  
243 1.2% 92%  
244 2% 91%  
245 1.2% 89%  
246 1.3% 87%  
247 2% 86%  
248 2% 84%  
249 3% 82%  
250 1.1% 79%  
251 2% 78%  
252 6% 77%  
253 3% 71%  
254 3% 68%  
255 3% 64%  
256 3% 62%  
257 3% 59%  
258 4% 56%  
259 3% 52%  
260 4% 49% Median
261 2% 45%  
262 2% 43%  
263 3% 40%  
264 5% 37%  
265 2% 32%  
266 2% 30%  
267 2% 28%  
268 2% 25%  
269 2% 24%  
270 0.8% 21%  
271 0.7% 21%  
272 1.2% 20%  
273 2% 19%  
274 0.7% 17%  
275 0.9% 16%  
276 0.5% 16%  
277 2% 15%  
278 0.6% 13%  
279 1.1% 13%  
280 0.4% 12%  
281 1.1% 11%  
282 1.4% 10%  
283 1.0% 9%  
284 0.8% 8%  
285 0.9% 7%  
286 0.8% 6%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.7% 5%  
289 0.7% 4%  
290 0.8% 3%  
291 0.5% 3%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.4% 2%  
294 0.3% 1.3%  
295 0.2% 1.0%  
296 0.3% 0.8%  
297 0.1% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0% 99.8%  
220 0% 99.7%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.6%  
223 0.1% 99.6%  
224 0.1% 99.5%  
225 0.1% 99.5%  
226 0.1% 99.4%  
227 0.2% 99.3%  
228 0.1% 99.1%  
229 0.1% 99.0%  
230 0.2% 98.9%  
231 0.2% 98.8%  
232 0.4% 98.5%  
233 0.4% 98%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.7% 97%  
236 0.5% 97%  
237 0.5% 96%  
238 0.3% 96%  
239 1.2% 95%  
240 2% 94%  
241 0.5% 93%  
242 2% 92%  
243 0.9% 90%  
244 2% 89%  
245 3% 87%  
246 2% 85%  
247 2% 83%  
248 2% 81%  
249 3% 79%  
250 1.2% 76%  
251 4% 75%  
252 4% 70%  
253 4% 66%  
254 3% 62%  
255 2% 59%  
256 2% 57%  
257 2% 55%  
258 5% 53%  
259 3% 47% Median
260 4% 44%  
261 4% 40%  
262 2% 36%  
263 2% 34%  
264 4% 32%  
265 2% 28%  
266 2% 26%  
267 0.8% 24%  
268 0.6% 23%  
269 2% 22%  
270 0.7% 20%  
271 1.1% 19%  
272 1.2% 18%  
273 1.5% 17%  
274 0.5% 16%  
275 0.6% 15%  
276 1.1% 14%  
277 1.4% 13%  
278 0.8% 12%  
279 0.8% 11%  
280 0.8% 10%  
281 0.9% 10%  
282 1.3% 9%  
283 1.0% 7%  
284 0.4% 6%  
285 0.6% 6%  
286 0.7% 5%  
287 0.6% 4%  
288 0.9% 4%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.5% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.3% 1.4%  
293 0.3% 1.1%  
294 0.2% 0.8%  
295 0.1% 0.6%  
296 0.2% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.6%  
174 0% 99.5%  
175 0% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.5%  
177 0.1% 99.4%  
178 0.1% 99.3%  
179 0.1% 99.2%  
180 0.2% 99.1%  
181 0.3% 98.9%  
182 0.2% 98.6%  
183 0.2% 98%  
184 0.5% 98%  
185 0.4% 98%  
186 0.5% 97%  
187 0.4% 97%  
188 1.1% 96%  
189 0.3% 95%  
190 1.1% 95%  
191 0.6% 94%  
192 2% 93%  
193 2% 91%  
194 1.2% 90%  
195 2% 89%  
196 0.8% 86%  
197 2% 86%  
198 2% 84%  
199 3% 82%  
200 5% 79%  
201 4% 74%  
202 2% 71%  
203 3% 68%  
204 4% 65%  
205 3% 61%  
206 3% 58%  
207 3% 55%  
208 3% 52% Median
209 4% 49%  
210 5% 45%  
211 3% 40%  
212 4% 37%  
213 3% 33%  
214 2% 31%  
215 3% 28%  
216 2% 26%  
217 2% 24%  
218 0.8% 23%  
219 2% 22%  
220 1.0% 20%  
221 0.7% 19%  
222 0.5% 18%  
223 2% 17%  
224 0.6% 16%  
225 1.2% 15%  
226 0.5% 14%  
227 1.2% 14%  
228 1.1% 12%  
229 0.5% 11%  
230 1.1% 11%  
231 0.8% 10%  
232 0.5% 9%  
233 1.3% 8%  
234 0.7% 7%  
235 1.1% 6%  
236 1.1% 5%  
237 0.5% 4%  
238 0.5% 4%  
239 0.6% 3%  
240 0.6% 2%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.5% 2%  
243 0.4% 1.1%  
244 0.3% 0.8%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.8%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.7%  
170 0.1% 99.7%  
171 0% 99.7%  
172 0.1% 99.6%  
173 0% 99.5%  
174 0.1% 99.5%  
175 0% 99.4%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.2% 99.3%  
178 0.1% 99.1%  
179 0.2% 99.0%  
180 0.2% 98.8%  
181 0.3% 98.6%  
182 0.2% 98%  
183 0.4% 98%  
184 0.3% 98%  
185 0.8% 97%  
186 0.2% 97%  
187 0.5% 96%  
188 1.2% 96%  
189 0.7% 95%  
190 1.3% 94%  
191 1.5% 93%  
192 2% 91%  
193 1.3% 89%  
194 1.2% 88%  
195 2% 86%  
196 1.4% 84%  
197 4% 83%  
198 0.9% 79%  
199 5% 78%  
200 4% 74%  
201 3% 69%  
202 3% 66%  
203 3% 63%  
204 5% 61%  
205 3% 56%  
206 3% 53%  
207 4% 50% Median
208 3% 46%  
209 3% 43%  
210 5% 40%  
211 4% 35%  
212 4% 31%  
213 1.2% 27%  
214 1.0% 26%  
215 0.9% 25%  
216 1.4% 24%  
217 2% 23%  
218 0.8% 21%  
219 2% 20%  
220 0.5% 18%  
221 0.8% 18%  
222 0.9% 17%  
223 2% 16%  
224 1.0% 14%  
225 0.7% 13%  
226 0.5% 13%  
227 1.2% 12%  
228 1.2% 11%  
229 0.7% 10%  
230 0.8% 9%  
231 0.7% 8%  
232 0.8% 8%  
233 1.2% 7%  
234 0.8% 6%  
235 1.0% 5%  
236 0.6% 4%  
237 0.6% 3%  
238 0.4% 3%  
239 0.5% 2%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.4% 1.3%  
242 0.2% 0.9%  
243 0.2% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.7%  
167 0% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.6%  
169 0% 99.6%  
170 0.1% 99.6%  
171 0.1% 99.5%  
172 0.1% 99.4%  
173 0.1% 99.3%  
174 0.2% 99.2%  
175 0.1% 99.0%  
176 0.1% 98.9%  
177 0.3% 98.7%  
178 0.4% 98%  
179 0.4% 98%  
180 0.7% 98%  
181 0.5% 97%  
182 0.6% 96%  
183 0.8% 96%  
184 1.2% 95%  
185 0.8% 94%  
186 2% 93%  
187 2% 91%  
188 2% 90%  
189 2% 87%  
190 2% 85%  
191 2% 83%  
192 3% 81%  
193 4% 78%  
194 4% 74%  
195 3% 70%  
196 4% 66%  
197 4% 63%  
198 2% 59%  
199 4% 57%  
200 3% 53% Median
201 4% 50%  
202 3% 45%  
203 4% 43%  
204 4% 38%  
205 4% 34%  
206 2% 31%  
207 3% 28%  
208 0.9% 25%  
209 2% 24%  
210 1.1% 22%  
211 1.0% 21%  
212 2% 20%  
213 1.0% 19%  
214 1.4% 18%  
215 1.2% 16%  
216 1.4% 15%  
217 0.8% 14%  
218 0.8% 13%  
219 0.8% 12%  
220 0.9% 11%  
221 0.8% 10%  
222 0.9% 10%  
223 1.4% 9%  
224 0.8% 7%  
225 1.1% 7%  
226 0.5% 5%  
227 0.9% 5%  
228 0.7% 4%  
229 0.8% 3%  
230 0.7% 3%  
231 0.3% 2%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.4% 1.2%  
234 0.2% 0.8%  
235 0.2% 0.6%  
236 0.2% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.8%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.7%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0% 99.6%  
167 0% 99.6%  
168 0% 99.6%  
169 0.1% 99.5%  
170 0.1% 99.4%  
171 0.1% 99.4%  
172 0.1% 99.3%  
173 0.1% 99.1%  
174 0.2% 99.0%  
175 0.2% 98.8%  
176 0.4% 98.6%  
177 0.4% 98%  
178 0.4% 98%  
179 0.6% 97%  
180 0.8% 97%  
181 0.6% 96%  
182 0.7% 95%  
183 2% 95%  
184 0.9% 93%  
185 2% 92%  
186 1.4% 91%  
187 2% 89%  
188 3% 87%  
189 3% 84%  
190 2% 81%  
191 4% 80%  
192 3% 76%  
193 5% 73%  
194 4% 69%  
195 3% 64%  
196 4% 62%  
197 3% 58%  
198 4% 55%  
199 4% 51% Median
200 3% 46%  
201 3% 44%  
202 5% 41%  
203 4% 35%  
204 3% 32%  
205 1.3% 29%  
206 2% 27%  
207 2% 26%  
208 1.2% 24%  
209 2% 22%  
210 1.0% 20%  
211 0.8% 19%  
212 1.3% 18%  
213 1.5% 17%  
214 1.2% 15%  
215 1.0% 14%  
216 1.0% 13%  
217 0.6% 12%  
218 0.8% 12%  
219 0.9% 11%  
220 0.7% 10%  
221 1.5% 9%  
222 0.7% 8%  
223 1.0% 7%  
224 0.6% 6%  
225 0.8% 5%  
226 0.6% 5%  
227 0.8% 4%  
228 0.9% 3%  
229 0.6% 2%  
230 0.5% 2%  
231 0.2% 1.2%  
232 0.4% 1.0%  
233 0.2% 0.6%  
234 0.2% 0.4%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.8%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0% 99.6%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.6%  
121 0% 99.5%  
122 0.1% 99.4%  
123 0.1% 99.4%  
124 0.2% 99.3%  
125 0.2% 99.1%  
126 0.2% 98.8%  
127 0.1% 98.6%  
128 0.3% 98.5%  
129 0.5% 98%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 0.6% 97%  
132 0.8% 97%  
133 0.8% 96%  
134 0.9% 95%  
135 0.9% 94%  
136 2% 93%  
137 1.3% 92%  
138 2% 90%  
139 2% 89%  
140 5% 86%  
141 6% 82%  
142 3% 76%  
143 3% 73%  
144 3% 70%  
145 4% 67%  
146 3% 63%  
147 3% 60%  
148 4% 57% Median
149 6% 53%  
150 6% 47%  
151 4% 41%  
152 3% 37%  
153 4% 34%  
154 1.1% 30%  
155 2% 28%  
156 1.3% 26%  
157 2% 25%  
158 2% 23%  
159 0.8% 21%  
160 1.2% 20%  
161 1.3% 19%  
162 2% 18%  
163 0.4% 16%  
164 0.8% 16%  
165 0.8% 15%  
166 1.1% 14%  
167 1.0% 13%  
168 0.5% 12%  
169 1.3% 11%  
170 0.9% 10%  
171 1.4% 9%  
172 0.4% 8%  
173 1.0% 7%  
174 1.2% 6%  
175 0.6% 5%  
176 1.2% 5%  
177 0.7% 3%  
178 0.6% 3%  
179 0.5% 2%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.1%  
182 0.2% 0.7%  
183 0.3% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.2%  
185 0.1% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0% 99.7%  
114 0% 99.7%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 0.1% 99.5%  
120 0.1% 99.4%  
121 0% 99.4%  
122 0.1% 99.4%  
123 0.1% 99.2%  
124 0.4% 99.1%  
125 0.2% 98.8%  
126 0.2% 98.6%  
127 0.3% 98%  
128 0.4% 98%  
129 0.6% 98%  
130 0.7% 97%  
131 0.7% 96%  
132 0.8% 96%  
133 2% 95%  
134 0.8% 93%  
135 1.4% 92%  
136 2% 91%  
137 2% 89%  
138 2% 87%  
139 4% 85%  
140 4% 81%  
141 6% 77%  
142 3% 71%  
143 2% 68%  
144 2% 66%  
145 4% 63%  
146 5% 59%  
147 6% 54% Median
148 4% 48%  
149 5% 45%  
150 6% 39%  
151 4% 34%  
152 2% 30%  
153 0.5% 28%  
154 0.9% 28%  
155 2% 27%  
156 1.4% 24%  
157 2% 23%  
158 2% 21%  
159 1.1% 19%  
160 0.9% 18%  
161 0.9% 17%  
162 1.3% 16%  
163 0.9% 15%  
164 0.7% 14%  
165 0.7% 13%  
166 0.9% 12%  
167 1.4% 12%  
168 0.9% 10%  
169 0.7% 9%  
170 0.9% 9%  
171 1.0% 8%  
172 0.5% 7%  
173 1.1% 6%  
174 1.2% 5%  
175 0.4% 4%  
176 1.0% 3%  
177 0.7% 2%  
178 0.7% 2%  
179 0.2% 1.0%  
180 0.3% 0.8%  
181 0.3% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations