Opinion Poll by Survation, 6–8 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 35.0% 33.7–36.4% 33.3–36.8% 33.0–37.1% 32.3–37.8%
Labour Party 41.0% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Green Party 1.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 301 286–320 282–325 277–328 265–339
Labour Party 262 220 204–232 200–234 197–240 187–251
Liberal Democrats 12 55 47–60 46–61 46–62 44–65
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 51 48–53 46–53 45–53 41–53
Plaid Cymru 4 4 4–8 4–8 4–9 3–11
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 0–1

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.3% 99.0%  
273 0.1% 98.7%  
274 0.2% 98.6%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.1% 97%  
279 0.6% 97%  
280 0.5% 97%  
281 0.4% 96%  
282 0.7% 96%  
283 0.7% 95%  
284 1.0% 94%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 2% 87%  
289 3% 86%  
290 3% 83%  
291 2% 80%  
292 1.4% 77%  
293 2% 76%  
294 4% 74%  
295 4% 70%  
296 2% 67%  
297 3% 64%  
298 4% 61%  
299 3% 57%  
300 3% 54%  
301 4% 51% Median
302 3% 47%  
303 3% 44%  
304 3% 40%  
305 4% 38%  
306 3% 34%  
307 1.4% 31%  
308 3% 29%  
309 2% 27%  
310 0.8% 24%  
311 2% 24%  
312 2% 22%  
313 3% 20%  
314 2% 17%  
315 2% 15%  
316 1.4% 14%  
317 0.5% 13% Last Result
318 0.8% 12%  
319 0.9% 11%  
320 1.0% 10%  
321 1.3% 9%  
322 0.7% 8%  
323 2% 7%  
324 0.7% 6%  
325 1.2% 5%  
326 0.4% 4% Majority
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.4%  
334 0.2% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0.1% 99.7%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0.1% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.4%  
190 0.2% 99.3%  
191 0.2% 99.1%  
192 0.3% 98.9%  
193 0.1% 98.6%  
194 0.4% 98.5%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.4% 98%  
197 0.4% 98%  
198 0.8% 97%  
199 0.9% 96%  
200 1.1% 96%  
201 1.1% 94%  
202 2% 93%  
203 0.9% 91%  
204 2% 91%  
205 1.5% 88%  
206 0.8% 87%  
207 0.4% 86%  
208 2% 86%  
209 0.7% 84%  
210 1.1% 83%  
211 1.5% 82%  
212 2% 80%  
213 4% 79%  
214 2% 75%  
215 2% 73%  
216 4% 70%  
217 2% 66%  
218 4% 65%  
219 6% 60%  
220 4% 54% Median
221 8% 50%  
222 2% 42%  
223 5% 40%  
224 3% 36%  
225 2% 32%  
226 5% 31%  
227 1.4% 26%  
228 4% 24%  
229 3% 20%  
230 2% 17%  
231 4% 15%  
232 3% 11%  
233 1.4% 8%  
234 2% 7%  
235 0.5% 5%  
236 0.2% 4%  
237 0.3% 4%  
238 0.3% 4%  
239 0.8% 4%  
240 0.3% 3%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.6% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 1.4%  
245 0.2% 1.3%  
246 0.1% 1.1%  
247 0.1% 1.0%  
248 0.1% 0.9%  
249 0% 0.8%  
250 0.2% 0.8%  
251 0.1% 0.6%  
252 0% 0.5%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.4% 99.6%  
45 1.5% 99.3%  
46 7% 98%  
47 11% 91%  
48 4% 79%  
49 4% 75%  
50 2% 71%  
51 3% 69%  
52 5% 67%  
53 5% 62%  
54 6% 56%  
55 8% 50% Median
56 7% 42%  
57 7% 35%  
58 10% 28%  
59 7% 19%  
60 6% 12%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.2%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.1% 99.5%  
42 0% 99.4%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 0% 98.6%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 3% 97%  
47 0.6% 94%  
48 8% 93%  
49 5% 86%  
50 11% 81%  
51 29% 70% Median
52 0.7% 41%  
53 40% 40%  
54 0.4% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 68% 99.3% Last Result, Median
5 1.3% 31%  
6 0.2% 30%  
7 0.6% 30%  
8 24% 29%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.2% 1.2%  
11 1.0% 1.0%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 98% 98% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 357 99.2% 343–376 339–380 334–384 322–394
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 355 99.2% 342–372 339–375 334–379 323–388
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 352 98% 338–370 334–375 329–378 316–388
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 331 69% 312–346 307–349 304–355 293–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 330 66% 311–345 306–349 303–354 292–366
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 325 47% 306–340 301–344 296–348 287–361
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 306 10% 291–325 287–330 283–335 270–344
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 301 4% 286–320 283–325 277–328 265–339
Conservative Party 317 301 4% 286–320 282–325 277–328 265–339
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 279 0.1% 262–293 256–297 253–302 243–315
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 277 0% 259–289 256–292 252–297 243–308
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 274 0% 255–288 251–292 247–297 237–309
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 271 0% 254–284 250–287 246–292 237–304
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 225 0% 208–237 206–239 203–246 194–257
Labour Party 262 220 0% 204–232 200–234 197–240 187–251

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.6%  
321 0% 99.6%  
322 0.1% 99.5%  
323 0.1% 99.5%  
324 0.1% 99.4%  
325 0.1% 99.3%  
326 0.1% 99.2% Majority
327 0% 99.0%  
328 0.1% 99.0%  
329 0.3% 98.9%  
330 0.1% 98.6%  
331 0.2% 98%  
332 0.2% 98%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.2% 98%  
335 0.4% 97%  
336 0.5% 97%  
337 0.5% 96%  
338 0.5% 96%  
339 1.0% 95%  
340 1.1% 95%  
341 1.1% 93%  
342 2% 92%  
343 3% 91%  
344 2% 88%  
345 2% 86%  
346 4% 85%  
347 2% 81%  
348 2% 79%  
349 2% 77%  
350 3% 74%  
351 4% 71%  
352 3% 68%  
353 4% 65%  
354 4% 61%  
355 2% 57%  
356 3% 55% Last Result, Median
357 4% 52%  
358 3% 48%  
359 3% 45%  
360 4% 42%  
361 3% 38%  
362 3% 35%  
363 4% 33%  
364 2% 28%  
365 1.1% 27%  
366 2% 25%  
367 2% 24%  
368 2% 22%  
369 2% 19%  
370 2% 17%  
371 1.4% 16%  
372 2% 14%  
373 1.2% 13%  
374 0.9% 12%  
375 0.6% 11%  
376 0.8% 10%  
377 1.1% 9%  
378 1.1% 8%  
379 1.3% 7%  
380 1.1% 6%  
381 0.7% 5%  
382 0.7% 4%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.5% 3%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.1% 2%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.3%  
390 0.2% 1.1%  
391 0.1% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.8%  
393 0.1% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0% 99.6%  
321 0% 99.6%  
322 0% 99.6%  
323 0.1% 99.5%  
324 0.2% 99.4%  
325 0.1% 99.3%  
326 0.1% 99.2% Majority
327 0.1% 99.1%  
328 0.1% 99.0%  
329 0.2% 98.8% Last Result
330 0.1% 98.7%  
331 0.2% 98.6%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 0.3% 98%  
334 0.4% 98%  
335 0.4% 97%  
336 0.4% 97%  
337 0.5% 96%  
338 0.2% 96%  
339 0.7% 96%  
340 1.3% 95%  
341 0.9% 94%  
342 3% 93%  
343 3% 89%  
344 3% 87%  
345 3% 84%  
346 1.1% 80%  
347 3% 79%  
348 5% 76%  
349 2% 70%  
350 3% 68%  
351 2% 65%  
352 3% 63%  
353 6% 59%  
354 3% 53%  
355 5% 50%  
356 5% 45% Median
357 3% 41%  
358 4% 37%  
359 3% 33%  
360 4% 30%  
361 2% 27%  
362 2% 24%  
363 2% 22%  
364 1.2% 20%  
365 2% 19%  
366 2% 17%  
367 0.6% 16%  
368 1.2% 15%  
369 1.1% 14%  
370 1.2% 13%  
371 1.2% 12%  
372 2% 10%  
373 1.2% 8%  
374 2% 7%  
375 0.6% 5%  
376 0.8% 5%  
377 0.8% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.4%  
385 0.4% 1.2%  
386 0.1% 0.8%  
387 0.1% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.1% 99.5%  
318 0.1% 99.4%  
319 0.1% 99.4%  
320 0.1% 99.3%  
321 0.1% 99.2%  
322 0.1% 99.0%  
323 0.1% 98.9%  
324 0.1% 98.8%  
325 0.3% 98.7%  
326 0.1% 98% Majority
327 0.3% 98%  
328 0.3% 98%  
329 0.6% 98%  
330 0.2% 97%  
331 0.5% 97%  
332 0.7% 96%  
333 0.5% 96%  
334 0.7% 95%  
335 1.0% 95%  
336 1.1% 94%  
337 1.2% 92%  
338 3% 91%  
339 3% 89%  
340 2% 86%  
341 2% 84%  
342 3% 82%  
343 3% 78%  
344 2% 75%  
345 3% 73%  
346 3% 71%  
347 3% 68%  
348 3% 65%  
349 4% 62%  
350 5% 58%  
351 2% 53%  
352 4% 51% Last Result, Median
353 3% 47%  
354 4% 44%  
355 2% 40%  
356 3% 38%  
357 2% 34%  
358 2% 32%  
359 6% 30%  
360 1.1% 24%  
361 1.1% 23%  
362 2% 22%  
363 1.3% 21%  
364 2% 19%  
365 2% 17%  
366 1.4% 15%  
367 0.9% 13%  
368 1.5% 13%  
369 1.2% 11%  
370 0.5% 10%  
371 1.1% 9%  
372 0.7% 8%  
373 1.1% 8%  
374 0.9% 7%  
375 1.1% 6%  
376 1.1% 5%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.5%  
383 0.1% 1.3%  
384 0.2% 1.3%  
385 0.2% 1.0%  
386 0.2% 0.9%  
387 0% 0.6%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.2% 99.1%  
298 0.2% 99.0%  
299 0.2% 98.8%  
300 0.3% 98.6%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 0.5% 97%  
306 0.4% 97%  
307 1.2% 96%  
308 0.7% 95%  
309 2% 94%  
310 0.7% 93%  
311 1.3% 92%  
312 1.0% 91%  
313 0.9% 90%  
314 0.8% 89% Last Result
315 0.5% 88%  
316 1.4% 87%  
317 2% 86%  
318 2% 85%  
319 3% 83%  
320 2% 80%  
321 2% 78%  
322 0.8% 76%  
323 2% 76%  
324 3% 73%  
325 1.4% 71%  
326 3% 69% Majority
327 4% 66%  
328 3% 62%  
329 3% 60%  
330 3% 56%  
331 4% 53% Median
332 3% 49%  
333 3% 46%  
334 4% 43%  
335 3% 39%  
336 2% 36%  
337 4% 33%  
338 4% 30%  
339 2% 26%  
340 1.4% 24%  
341 2% 23%  
342 3% 20%  
343 3% 17%  
344 2% 14%  
345 2% 13%  
346 2% 11%  
347 2% 9%  
348 1.0% 7%  
349 0.7% 6%  
350 0.7% 5%  
351 0.4% 4%  
352 0.5% 4%  
353 0.6% 3%  
354 0.2% 3%  
355 0.2% 3%  
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.4%  
360 0.3% 1.3%  
361 0.1% 1.0%  
362 0.1% 1.0%  
363 0.1% 0.9%  
364 0.1% 0.8%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.2% 99.1%  
297 0.2% 99.0%  
298 0.1% 98.8%  
299 0.3% 98.6%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.4% 98%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 0.4% 97%  
306 1.2% 96%  
307 0.7% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 0.7% 93%  
310 1.3% 92%  
311 1.0% 91%  
312 0.9% 90%  
313 0.8% 89% Last Result
314 0.5% 88%  
315 1.4% 87%  
316 2% 86%  
317 2% 85%  
318 3% 83%  
319 2% 80%  
320 2% 78%  
321 0.7% 76%  
322 2% 76%  
323 3% 73%  
324 2% 71%  
325 3% 69%  
326 4% 66% Majority
327 3% 63%  
328 3% 60%  
329 4% 56%  
330 4% 53% Median
331 3% 49%  
332 3% 46%  
333 4% 43%  
334 3% 39%  
335 2% 36%  
336 3% 33%  
337 4% 30%  
338 2% 26%  
339 1.4% 24%  
340 2% 23%  
341 3% 20%  
342 3% 17%  
343 2% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 2% 9%  
347 1.0% 7%  
348 0.7% 6%  
349 0.8% 5%  
350 0.4% 4%  
351 0.5% 4%  
352 0.6% 3%  
353 0.2% 3%  
354 0.2% 3%  
355 0.5% 2%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.1% 1.4%  
359 0.3% 1.3%  
360 0.1% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 1.0%  
362 0.1% 0.9%  
363 0.1% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 0.3% 99.1%  
292 0.1% 98.8%  
293 0.2% 98.7%  
294 0.3% 98.5%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.4% 98%  
297 0.2% 97%  
298 0.6% 97%  
299 0.5% 97%  
300 0.8% 96%  
301 0.4% 95%  
302 1.4% 95%  
303 0.8% 94%  
304 1.4% 93%  
305 0.9% 91%  
306 1.1% 90%  
307 0.8% 89%  
308 1.3% 89%  
309 0.9% 87% Last Result
310 1.0% 86%  
311 2% 85%  
312 2% 84%  
313 2% 82%  
314 3% 80%  
315 2% 77%  
316 1.1% 75%  
317 1.4% 74%  
318 2% 73%  
319 3% 71%  
320 3% 68%  
321 3% 65%  
322 4% 63%  
323 3% 58%  
324 4% 55%  
325 4% 52%  
326 4% 47% Median, Majority
327 2% 44%  
328 2% 42%  
329 3% 39%  
330 3% 36%  
331 3% 33%  
332 4% 31%  
333 4% 27%  
334 2% 23%  
335 1.1% 21%  
336 2% 20%  
337 2% 18%  
338 3% 15%  
339 1.3% 12%  
340 1.4% 11%  
341 2% 9%  
342 1.2% 7%  
343 1.0% 6%  
344 0.7% 5%  
345 0.7% 4%  
346 0.3% 4%  
347 0.4% 3%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.2% 1.5%  
354 0.1% 1.3%  
355 0.3% 1.2%  
356 0% 0.9%  
357 0.1% 0.9%  
358 0.1% 0.8%  
359 0.1% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0% 0.5%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.6%  
269 0% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.2%  
275 0.1% 99.2%  
276 0.3% 99.1%  
277 0.1% 98.8%  
278 0.2% 98.7%  
279 0.2% 98.5%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 0.4% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 0.6% 96%  
287 0.7% 96%  
288 1.0% 95%  
289 1.2% 94%  
290 2% 93%  
291 1.5% 91%  
292 1.3% 89%  
293 3% 88%  
294 2% 85%  
295 2% 82%  
296 1.1% 80%  
297 2% 79%  
298 4% 77%  
299 4% 73%  
300 3% 69%  
301 3% 67%  
302 3% 64%  
303 2% 61%  
304 2% 58%  
305 4% 56% Median
306 4% 53%  
307 4% 48%  
308 3% 45%  
309 4% 42%  
310 3% 37%  
311 3% 35%  
312 3% 32%  
313 2% 29%  
314 1.4% 27%  
315 1.1% 26%  
316 2% 25%  
317 3% 23%  
318 2% 20%  
319 2% 18%  
320 2% 16%  
321 1.0% 15% Last Result
322 0.9% 14%  
323 1.3% 13%  
324 0.8% 11%  
325 1.1% 11%  
326 0.9% 10% Majority
327 1.4% 9%  
328 0.8% 7%  
329 1.4% 6%  
330 0.4% 5%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.5% 4%  
333 0.6% 3%  
334 0.2% 3%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.2% 1.5%  
339 0.1% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.2%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.3% 99.0%  
273 0.1% 98.7%  
274 0.2% 98.6%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.2% 97%  
279 0.6% 97%  
280 0.5% 97%  
281 0.4% 96%  
282 0.7% 96%  
283 0.7% 95%  
284 1.0% 94%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 2% 87%  
289 3% 86%  
290 3% 83%  
291 2% 80%  
292 1.4% 77%  
293 2% 76%  
294 4% 74%  
295 4% 70%  
296 2% 67%  
297 3% 64%  
298 4% 61%  
299 3% 57%  
300 3% 54%  
301 4% 51% Median
302 3% 47%  
303 3% 44%  
304 3% 40%  
305 4% 38%  
306 3% 34%  
307 1.4% 31%  
308 3% 29%  
309 2% 27%  
310 0.8% 24%  
311 2% 24%  
312 2% 22%  
313 3% 20%  
314 2% 17%  
315 2% 15%  
316 1.4% 14%  
317 0.5% 13% Last Result
318 0.8% 12%  
319 0.9% 11%  
320 1.0% 10%  
321 1.3% 9%  
322 0.7% 8%  
323 2% 7%  
324 0.7% 6%  
325 1.2% 5%  
326 0.4% 4% Majority
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.4%  
334 0.2% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.3% 99.0%  
273 0.1% 98.7%  
274 0.2% 98.6%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.1% 97%  
279 0.6% 97%  
280 0.5% 97%  
281 0.4% 96%  
282 0.7% 96%  
283 0.7% 95%  
284 1.0% 94%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 2% 87%  
289 3% 86%  
290 3% 83%  
291 2% 80%  
292 1.4% 77%  
293 2% 76%  
294 4% 74%  
295 4% 70%  
296 2% 67%  
297 3% 64%  
298 4% 61%  
299 3% 57%  
300 3% 54%  
301 4% 51% Median
302 3% 47%  
303 3% 44%  
304 3% 40%  
305 4% 38%  
306 3% 34%  
307 1.4% 31%  
308 3% 29%  
309 2% 27%  
310 0.8% 24%  
311 2% 24%  
312 2% 22%  
313 3% 20%  
314 2% 17%  
315 2% 15%  
316 1.4% 14%  
317 0.5% 13% Last Result
318 0.8% 12%  
319 0.9% 11%  
320 1.0% 10%  
321 1.3% 9%  
322 0.7% 8%  
323 2% 7%  
324 0.7% 6%  
325 1.2% 5%  
326 0.4% 4% Majority
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.4%  
334 0.2% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.5%  
244 0% 99.4%  
245 0.2% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.1%  
247 0.2% 99.0%  
248 0.1% 98.8%  
249 0.2% 98.7%  
250 0.2% 98.5%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.5% 98%  
254 0.6% 97%  
255 1.1% 96%  
256 1.1% 95%  
257 1.0% 94%  
258 1.1% 93%  
259 0.7% 92%  
260 1.1% 92%  
261 0.5% 91%  
262 1.2% 90%  
263 1.4% 89%  
264 0.9% 87%  
265 1.4% 87%  
266 2% 85%  
267 2% 83%  
268 1.3% 81%  
269 2% 79%  
270 1.1% 78%  
271 1.1% 77%  
272 5% 76%  
273 2% 70%  
274 2% 68%  
275 3% 66%  
276 2% 62%  
277 4% 60%  
278 3% 56% Last Result
279 4% 53% Median
280 2% 49%  
281 5% 47%  
282 4% 42%  
283 3% 39%  
284 3% 35%  
285 3% 32%  
286 3% 30%  
287 2% 27%  
288 3% 25%  
289 3% 22%  
290 2% 18%  
291 2% 16%  
292 3% 14%  
293 3% 11%  
294 1.2% 9%  
295 1.1% 8%  
296 1.1% 7%  
297 0.7% 5%  
298 0.5% 5%  
299 0.7% 4%  
300 0.5% 4%  
301 0.2% 3%  
302 0.6% 3%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.1% 2%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0.1% 1.3%  
308 0.1% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 1.1%  
310 0.2% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.4% 99.2%  
247 0.2% 98.8%  
248 0.2% 98.7%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.2% 98%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 0.5% 97%  
254 0.8% 97%  
255 0.8% 96%  
256 0.6% 95%  
257 2% 95%  
258 1.2% 93%  
259 2% 92%  
260 1.2% 90%  
261 1.2% 88%  
262 1.1% 87%  
263 1.2% 86%  
264 0.6% 85%  
265 2% 84%  
266 2% 83%  
267 1.2% 81%  
268 2% 80%  
269 2% 78%  
270 2% 76%  
271 4% 73%  
272 3% 70%  
273 4% 67%  
274 3% 63%  
275 5% 59% Median
276 5% 55%  
277 3% 50%  
278 6% 47%  
279 3% 41%  
280 2% 37%  
281 3% 35%  
282 2% 32%  
283 5% 30%  
284 3% 24%  
285 1.2% 21%  
286 4% 20%  
287 3% 16%  
288 3% 14%  
289 3% 11%  
290 0.9% 7%  
291 1.3% 6%  
292 0.8% 5%  
293 0.2% 4%  
294 0.5% 4%  
295 0.4% 4%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.4% 3%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.5% 2%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.1% 1.4% Last Result
302 0.2% 1.4%  
303 0.1% 1.2%  
304 0.1% 1.0%  
305 0.1% 0.9%  
306 0.1% 0.8%  
307 0.2% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.4%  
239 0.1% 99.3%  
240 0% 99.2%  
241 0.2% 99.1%  
242 0.1% 98.9%  
243 0.3% 98.7%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.5% 97%  
249 0.7% 97%  
250 0.7% 96%  
251 1.1% 95%  
252 1.3% 94%  
253 1.2% 93%  
254 1.1% 92%  
255 0.7% 91%  
256 0.7% 90%  
257 0.9% 89%  
258 1.2% 88%  
259 2% 87%  
260 1.4% 86%  
261 2% 84%  
262 2% 83%  
263 2% 81%  
264 2% 78%  
265 2% 76%  
266 1.1% 75%  
267 2% 73%  
268 4% 72%  
269 3% 67%  
270 3% 65%  
271 4% 62%  
272 3% 58%  
273 3% 55%  
274 4% 52% Last Result
275 3% 48% Median
276 2% 45%  
277 4% 43%  
278 4% 39%  
279 3% 35%  
280 4% 32%  
281 3% 29%  
282 2% 26%  
283 2% 23%  
284 2% 21%  
285 4% 19%  
286 1.5% 15%  
287 2% 14%  
288 3% 12%  
289 2% 9%  
290 1.1% 8%  
291 1.1% 7%  
292 1.0% 5%  
293 0.5% 5%  
294 0.5% 4%  
295 0.5% 4%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.5% 2%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.3% 1.4%  
303 0.1% 1.1%  
304 0.1% 1.0%  
305 0.1% 1.0%  
306 0.1% 0.8%  
307 0.1% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.1% 99.4%  
239 0.1% 99.3%  
240 0.1% 99.2%  
241 0.2% 99.1%  
242 0.4% 98.8%  
243 0.2% 98%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.3% 97%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 0.9% 96%  
250 0.9% 96%  
251 0.9% 95%  
252 1.0% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 1.0% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 1.1% 88%  
257 1.4% 87%  
258 0.8% 85%  
259 2% 85%  
260 0.6% 83%  
261 2% 82%  
262 2% 80%  
263 1.1% 78%  
264 3% 77%  
265 3% 75%  
266 2% 72%  
267 4% 69%  
268 4% 65%  
269 4% 62%  
270 3% 58%  
271 5% 54% Median
272 4% 50%  
273 3% 45%  
274 6% 42%  
275 3% 36%  
276 3% 33%  
277 3% 31%  
278 2% 28%  
279 6% 26%  
280 2% 20%  
281 2% 18%  
282 3% 16%  
283 2% 12%  
284 3% 11%  
285 2% 8%  
286 0.6% 6%  
287 1.3% 6%  
288 0.6% 4%  
289 0.3% 4%  
290 0.5% 4%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.3% 3%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.3% 2%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.1% 1.4%  
297 0.1% 1.3% Last Result
298 0.2% 1.2%  
299 0.1% 1.0%  
300 0.1% 0.9%  
301 0.1% 0.8%  
302 0% 0.7%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0% 0.4%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.8%  
190 0% 99.8%  
191 0% 99.7%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0.1% 99.6%  
194 0.2% 99.5%  
195 0.1% 99.3%  
196 0.2% 99.2%  
197 0.1% 99.0%  
198 0.4% 98.9%  
199 0.2% 98.5%  
200 0.2% 98%  
201 0.1% 98%  
202 0.3% 98%  
203 0.6% 98%  
204 0.8% 97%  
205 0.8% 96%  
206 2% 95%  
207 1.3% 94%  
208 2% 92%  
209 2% 90%  
210 0.8% 88%  
211 0.4% 87%  
212 2% 87%  
213 0.5% 85%  
214 0.4% 85%  
215 1.0% 84%  
216 2% 83%  
217 4% 82%  
218 2% 78%  
219 2% 76%  
220 3% 74%  
221 0.8% 71%  
222 3% 70%  
223 7% 67%  
224 4% 60% Median
225 8% 56%  
226 4% 48%  
227 4% 44%  
228 4% 40%  
229 2% 36%  
230 4% 34%  
231 2% 29%  
232 3% 27%  
233 3% 25%  
234 2% 22%  
235 4% 20%  
236 5% 15%  
237 2% 10%  
238 2% 8%  
239 1.0% 6%  
240 0.2% 5%  
241 0.1% 5%  
242 0.4% 4%  
243 0.7% 4%  
244 0.4% 3%  
245 0.4% 3%  
246 0.7% 3%  
247 0.3% 2%  
248 0.1% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.3%  
251 0% 1.1%  
252 0.1% 1.0%  
253 0% 1.0%  
254 0.2% 0.9%  
255 0.2% 0.7%  
256 0% 0.5%  
257 0% 0.5%  
258 0% 0.5%  
259 0.1% 0.4%  
260 0.1% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1% Last Result
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0% 99.7%  
185 0% 99.7%  
186 0.1% 99.7%  
187 0.1% 99.6%  
188 0.1% 99.5%  
189 0.1% 99.4%  
190 0.2% 99.3%  
191 0.2% 99.1%  
192 0.3% 98.9%  
193 0.1% 98.6%  
194 0.4% 98.5%  
195 0.2% 98%  
196 0.4% 98%  
197 0.4% 98%  
198 0.8% 97%  
199 0.9% 96%  
200 1.1% 96%  
201 1.1% 94%  
202 2% 93%  
203 0.9% 91%  
204 2% 91%  
205 1.5% 88%  
206 0.8% 87%  
207 0.4% 86%  
208 2% 86%  
209 0.7% 84%  
210 1.1% 83%  
211 1.5% 82%  
212 2% 80%  
213 4% 79%  
214 2% 75%  
215 2% 73%  
216 4% 70%  
217 2% 66%  
218 4% 65%  
219 6% 60%  
220 4% 54% Median
221 8% 50%  
222 2% 42%  
223 5% 40%  
224 3% 36%  
225 2% 32%  
226 5% 31%  
227 1.4% 26%  
228 4% 24%  
229 3% 20%  
230 2% 17%  
231 4% 15%  
232 3% 11%  
233 1.4% 8%  
234 2% 7%  
235 0.5% 5%  
236 0.2% 4%  
237 0.3% 4%  
238 0.3% 4%  
239 0.8% 4%  
240 0.3% 3%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.6% 2%  
243 0.2% 2%  
244 0.1% 1.4%  
245 0.2% 1.3%  
246 0.1% 1.1%  
247 0.1% 1.0%  
248 0.1% 0.9%  
249 0% 0.8%  
250 0.2% 0.8%  
251 0.1% 0.6%  
252 0% 0.5%  
253 0% 0.4%  
254 0% 0.4%  
255 0.1% 0.4%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1% Last Result
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations