Opinion Poll by Survation, 14–16 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.4% 40.4–44.4% 39.8–45.0% 39.4–45.5% 38.4–46.4%
Labour Party 41.0% 28.3% 26.6–30.2% 26.0–30.7% 25.6–31.2% 24.8–32.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.2% 11.9–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.2–15.4% 10.6–16.1%
Brexit Party 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Green Party 1.7% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 374 353–396 345–403 339–408 326–417
Labour Party 262 179 159–198 153–204 149–210 141–222
Liberal Democrats 12 32 29–38 29–40 28–42 26–46
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 41 30–48 27–50 21–50 10–51
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–10 4–11 3–11 3–12

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.6% Majority
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0.1% 99.4%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0.1% 99.2%  
331 0.1% 99.0%  
332 0.2% 98.9%  
333 0.1% 98.8%  
334 0.3% 98.7%  
335 0.2% 98%  
336 0.2% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0.2% 98%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 0.2% 97%  
341 0.4% 97%  
342 0.3% 97%  
343 0.7% 96%  
344 0.6% 96%  
345 0.6% 95%  
346 0.5% 94%  
347 0.5% 94%  
348 0.4% 93%  
349 0.7% 93%  
350 0.7% 92%  
351 0.4% 92%  
352 0.9% 91%  
353 1.3% 90%  
354 1.3% 89%  
355 0.7% 88%  
356 1.5% 87%  
357 0.8% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 1.0% 83%  
360 2% 82%  
361 2% 80%  
362 1.0% 78%  
363 1.4% 77%  
364 1.4% 76%  
365 3% 74%  
366 3% 71%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 3% 67%  
369 4% 64%  
370 3% 61%  
371 3% 57%  
372 2% 55%  
373 2% 53%  
374 2% 50% Median
375 2% 48%  
376 3% 46%  
377 4% 43%  
378 2% 39%  
379 3% 37%  
380 3% 34%  
381 1.4% 32%  
382 2% 30%  
383 2% 28%  
384 3% 26%  
385 1.1% 23%  
386 1.2% 22%  
387 1.1% 21%  
388 2% 20%  
389 0.8% 18%  
390 1.5% 17%  
391 1.1% 16%  
392 0.8% 15%  
393 1.2% 14%  
394 1.3% 13%  
395 1.3% 11%  
396 0.6% 10%  
397 0.7% 9%  
398 0.6% 9%  
399 0.9% 8%  
400 0.8% 7%  
401 0.5% 6%  
402 0.5% 6%  
403 0.8% 6%  
404 0.6% 5%  
405 0.7% 4%  
406 0.5% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.4% 3%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.1% 1.2%  
414 0.2% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.1% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.2% 99.2%  
145 0.2% 98.9%  
146 0.2% 98.8%  
147 0.3% 98.5%  
148 0.5% 98%  
149 0.4% 98%  
150 0.5% 97%  
151 0.9% 97%  
152 0.8% 96%  
153 0.8% 95%  
154 0.8% 94%  
155 0.9% 94%  
156 0.8% 93%  
157 0.6% 92%  
158 0.9% 91%  
159 1.0% 90%  
160 0.5% 89%  
161 1.4% 89%  
162 1.1% 87%  
163 1.3% 86%  
164 0.7% 85%  
165 0.7% 84%  
166 2% 84%  
167 0.8% 81%  
168 2% 80%  
169 1.0% 79%  
170 2% 78%  
171 2% 76%  
172 2% 74%  
173 2% 72%  
174 2% 70%  
175 4% 67%  
176 2% 63%  
177 2% 61%  
178 6% 59%  
179 4% 53% Median
180 2% 49%  
181 7% 47%  
182 2% 40%  
183 3% 38%  
184 5% 35%  
185 4% 30%  
186 3% 26%  
187 1.1% 23%  
188 1.0% 22%  
189 2% 21%  
190 2% 20%  
191 0.9% 18%  
192 2% 17%  
193 2% 15%  
194 0.7% 14%  
195 0.8% 13%  
196 0.4% 12%  
197 1.4% 12%  
198 0.7% 10%  
199 1.0% 10%  
200 0.4% 9%  
201 0.6% 8%  
202 1.5% 8%  
203 0.9% 6%  
204 0.6% 5%  
205 0.8% 5%  
206 0.5% 4%  
207 0.6% 3%  
208 0.2% 3%  
209 0.1% 3%  
210 0.2% 3%  
211 0.3% 2%  
212 0.2% 2%  
213 0.3% 2%  
214 0.2% 2%  
215 0.2% 1.5%  
216 0.2% 1.3%  
217 0.1% 1.1%  
218 0.1% 1.0%  
219 0.1% 0.9%  
220 0.1% 0.7%  
221 0.1% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.5%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0% 0.3%  
225 0% 0.3%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 0.1% 99.6%  
27 1.2% 99.4%  
28 2% 98%  
29 12% 96%  
30 17% 84%  
31 14% 67%  
32 13% 53% Median
33 7% 39%  
34 5% 33%  
35 7% 27%  
36 6% 21%  
37 4% 14%  
38 4% 11%  
39 2% 7%  
40 2% 5%  
41 0.8% 4%  
42 0.9% 3%  
43 0.6% 2%  
44 0.6% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.8%  
46 0.3% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.7%  
8 0.1% 99.7%  
9 0.1% 99.6%  
10 0.1% 99.6%  
11 0.1% 99.5%  
12 0.1% 99.4%  
13 0.1% 99.3%  
14 0.2% 99.2%  
15 0.2% 99.0%  
16 0.2% 98.8%  
17 0.3% 98.6%  
18 0.2% 98%  
19 0.4% 98%  
20 0.2% 98%  
21 0.2% 98%  
22 0.1% 97%  
23 0.2% 97%  
24 0.2% 97%  
25 0.6% 97%  
26 0.4% 96%  
27 1.3% 96%  
28 0.8% 95%  
29 1.3% 94%  
30 3% 93%  
31 0.6% 90%  
32 0.5% 89%  
33 11% 89%  
34 6% 77%  
35 2% 71% Last Result
36 4% 69%  
37 3% 65%  
38 2% 62%  
39 4% 60%  
40 2% 56%  
41 25% 54% Median
42 5% 29%  
43 1.0% 25%  
44 0% 24%  
45 7% 24%  
46 0.1% 16%  
47 5% 16%  
48 4% 12%  
49 0.1% 8%  
50 5% 7%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.1% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 31% 97% Last Result
5 9% 67%  
6 5% 57%  
7 3% 53% Median
8 30% 50%  
9 7% 20%  
10 6% 13%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 420 100% 398–441 392–447 386–451 373–459
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 412 100% 392–434 387–440 380–443 368–451
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 406 100% 386–428 379–434 373–439 362–449
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 380 99.8% 359–403 351–410 345–416 332–425
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 374 99.6% 353–396 345–403 339–408 326–417
Conservative Party 317 374 99.6% 353–396 345–403 339–408 326–417
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 258 0% 236–279 229–287 224–293 215–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 257 0% 235–278 228–286 223–292 214–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 251 0% 228–272 221–280 215–286 206–299
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 225 0% 203–245 197–252 192–258 182–269
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 218 0% 196–239 189–246 184–252 174–263
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 219 0% 197–239 191–244 188–251 180–263
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 211 0% 190–232 184–239 180–245 172–258
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 186 0% 166–204 160–210 157–216 150–227
Labour Party 262 179 0% 159–198 153–204 149–210 141–222

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.8%  
368 0% 99.8%  
369 0% 99.8%  
370 0% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.6%  
373 0% 99.5%  
374 0.1% 99.5%  
375 0.1% 99.4%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.1% 99.1%  
378 0.1% 99.0%  
379 0.2% 98.9%  
380 0.1% 98.7%  
381 0.2% 98.7%  
382 0.1% 98%  
383 0.2% 98%  
384 0.2% 98%  
385 0.2% 98%  
386 0.4% 98%  
387 0.2% 97%  
388 0.3% 97%  
389 0.3% 97%  
390 0.3% 97%  
391 0.3% 96%  
392 1.0% 96%  
393 0.8% 95%  
394 0.7% 94%  
395 0.8% 94%  
396 0.8% 93%  
397 0.5% 92%  
398 1.4% 91%  
399 0.5% 90%  
400 0.7% 89%  
401 1.4% 89%  
402 0.7% 87%  
403 0.8% 87%  
404 1.2% 86%  
405 1.0% 85%  
406 1.0% 84%  
407 1.1% 83%  
408 2% 82%  
409 3% 80%  
410 1.3% 77%  
411 3% 76%  
412 4% 73%  
413 2% 69%  
414 2% 67%  
415 2% 65%  
416 4% 63%  
417 3% 59%  
418 3% 56%  
419 2% 53%  
420 3% 50%  
421 5% 47%  
422 3% 42% Median
423 2% 39%  
424 3% 37%  
425 2% 34%  
426 3% 32%  
427 2% 29%  
428 3% 27%  
429 1.5% 24%  
430 0.9% 22%  
431 2% 21%  
432 1.2% 20%  
433 1.4% 18%  
434 0.9% 17%  
435 0.6% 16%  
436 1.5% 15%  
437 1.2% 14%  
438 0.5% 13%  
439 2% 12%  
440 0.5% 11%  
441 0.5% 10%  
442 1.0% 10%  
443 0.7% 9%  
444 1.2% 8%  
445 0.6% 7%  
446 0.6% 6%  
447 0.7% 5%  
448 0.5% 5%  
449 0.8% 4%  
450 0.6% 3%  
451 0.6% 3%  
452 0.4% 2%  
453 0.3% 2%  
454 0.3% 1.5%  
455 0.1% 1.2%  
456 0.3% 1.1%  
457 0.1% 0.9%  
458 0.2% 0.7%  
459 0.1% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.5%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0% 99.8%  
364 0% 99.7%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.6%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.5%  
369 0.1% 99.4%  
370 0.1% 99.3%  
371 0.1% 99.2%  
372 0.2% 99.1%  
373 0.2% 98.9%  
374 0.1% 98.8%  
375 0.2% 98.6%  
376 0.1% 98%  
377 0.1% 98%  
378 0.2% 98%  
379 0.2% 98%  
380 0.4% 98%  
381 0.2% 97%  
382 0.3% 97%  
383 0.5% 97%  
384 0.2% 96%  
385 0.3% 96%  
386 0.6% 96%  
387 0.8% 95%  
388 0.6% 94%  
389 0.9% 94%  
390 1.3% 93%  
391 0.9% 92%  
392 0.9% 91%  
393 0.7% 90%  
394 1.0% 89%  
395 0.5% 88%  
396 0.6% 88%  
397 1.4% 87%  
398 0.8% 86%  
399 0.7% 85%  
400 1.1% 84%  
401 1.3% 83%  
402 2% 82%  
403 1.4% 79%  
404 2% 78%  
405 3% 76%  
406 3% 73%  
407 4% 70%  
408 2% 66%  
409 3% 64%  
410 4% 61%  
411 4% 57%  
412 3% 53%  
413 4% 50%  
414 3% 46%  
415 3% 43% Median
416 4% 41%  
417 3% 37%  
418 4% 34%  
419 2% 30%  
420 2% 28%  
421 1.2% 26%  
422 1.4% 25%  
423 2% 23%  
424 3% 21%  
425 0.6% 18%  
426 0.4% 18%  
427 0.5% 17%  
428 1.2% 17%  
429 2% 15%  
430 0.6% 13%  
431 0.7% 13%  
432 0.7% 12%  
433 1.2% 11%  
434 0.8% 10%  
435 1.4% 9%  
436 0.9% 8%  
437 0.2% 7%  
438 0.6% 7%  
439 0.7% 6%  
440 1.1% 6%  
441 1.2% 4%  
442 0.7% 3%  
443 0.4% 3%  
444 0.3% 2%  
445 0.4% 2%  
446 0.1% 1.5%  
447 0.2% 1.4%  
448 0.2% 1.2%  
449 0.1% 0.9%  
450 0.2% 0.8%  
451 0.2% 0.6%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.1% 99.6%  
363 0.2% 99.5%  
364 0.1% 99.3%  
365 0.1% 99.2%  
366 0.2% 99.1%  
367 0% 98.9%  
368 0.2% 98.9%  
369 0.2% 98.7%  
370 0.2% 98%  
371 0.2% 98%  
372 0.3% 98%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.4% 97%  
375 0.2% 97%  
376 0.5% 97%  
377 0.4% 96%  
378 0.4% 96%  
379 0.5% 95%  
380 0.9% 95%  
381 0.5% 94%  
382 0.4% 93%  
383 0.6% 93%  
384 0.9% 92%  
385 0.8% 92%  
386 1.2% 91%  
387 0.6% 90%  
388 0.9% 89%  
389 1.0% 88%  
390 1.4% 87%  
391 2% 86%  
392 2% 84%  
393 1.4% 82%  
394 0.9% 81%  
395 3% 80%  
396 1.5% 77%  
397 2% 76%  
398 2% 74%  
399 2% 72%  
400 4% 69%  
401 5% 66%  
402 2% 61%  
403 2% 59%  
404 3% 57%  
405 2% 55%  
406 4% 53% Median
407 4% 49%  
408 3% 45%  
409 2% 42%  
410 3% 40%  
411 2% 37%  
412 4% 36%  
413 2% 32%  
414 2% 30%  
415 1.2% 29%  
416 1.5% 27%  
417 3% 26%  
418 2% 23%  
419 3% 22%  
420 1.1% 19%  
421 1.1% 18%  
422 0.8% 17%  
423 2% 16%  
424 2% 14%  
425 0.9% 13%  
426 0.7% 12%  
427 0.7% 11%  
428 0.9% 10%  
429 0.7% 9%  
430 1.0% 9%  
431 0.5% 8%  
432 0.5% 7%  
433 1.3% 7%  
434 0.6% 5%  
435 0.5% 5%  
436 0.5% 4%  
437 0.5% 4%  
438 0.3% 3%  
439 0.6% 3%  
440 0.3% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.2% 2%  
443 0.4% 2%  
444 0.2% 1.3%  
445 0.2% 1.1%  
446 0.2% 0.9%  
447 0.1% 0.7%  
448 0.1% 0.6%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9% Last Result
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8% Majority
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.7%  
329 0% 99.7%  
330 0% 99.6%  
331 0% 99.6%  
332 0.1% 99.5%  
333 0.1% 99.5%  
334 0.1% 99.4%  
335 0.1% 99.3%  
336 0.1% 99.1%  
337 0.1% 99.0%  
338 0.1% 98.9%  
339 0.1% 98.8%  
340 0.2% 98.6%  
341 0.1% 98%  
342 0.2% 98%  
343 0.3% 98%  
344 0.2% 98%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.2% 97%  
347 0.7% 97%  
348 0.4% 96%  
349 0.5% 96%  
350 0.3% 95%  
351 0.5% 95%  
352 0.4% 95%  
353 0.5% 94%  
354 0.7% 94%  
355 0.5% 93%  
356 0.7% 93%  
357 1.4% 92%  
358 0.4% 90%  
359 0.5% 90%  
360 2% 90%  
361 0.8% 88%  
362 2% 87%  
363 0.6% 85%  
364 2% 85%  
365 0.6% 83%  
366 1.0% 82%  
367 2% 81%  
368 2% 79%  
369 2% 77%  
370 2% 75%  
371 1.2% 73%  
372 2% 72%  
373 2% 69%  
374 2% 68%  
375 3% 66%  
376 2% 63%  
377 4% 61%  
378 3% 57%  
379 3% 55%  
380 4% 52%  
381 2% 48% Median
382 2% 46%  
383 2% 44%  
384 2% 43%  
385 4% 41%  
386 2% 37%  
387 2% 35%  
388 4% 33%  
389 2% 29%  
390 1.0% 27%  
391 1.1% 26%  
392 3% 25%  
393 1.0% 22%  
394 1.4% 21%  
395 1.3% 20%  
396 2% 19%  
397 1.3% 17%  
398 1.0% 16%  
399 1.0% 15%  
400 0.6% 14%  
401 1.1% 13%  
402 1.2% 12%  
403 1.1% 11%  
404 0.6% 9%  
405 0.6% 9%  
406 0.7% 8%  
407 0.6% 7%  
408 0.7% 7%  
409 0.9% 6%  
410 0.4% 5%  
411 0.6% 5%  
412 0.5% 4%  
413 0.5% 4%  
414 0.6% 3%  
415 0.2% 3%  
416 0.3% 3%  
417 0.4% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.2% 2%  
420 0.2% 1.4%  
421 0.1% 1.2%  
422 0.2% 1.1%  
423 0.2% 0.8%  
424 0.1% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.6%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0.1% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.6% Majority
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0.1% 99.4%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0.1% 99.2%  
331 0.1% 99.0%  
332 0.2% 98.9%  
333 0.1% 98.8%  
334 0.3% 98.7%  
335 0.2% 98%  
336 0.2% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0.2% 98%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 0.2% 97%  
341 0.4% 97%  
342 0.3% 97%  
343 0.7% 96%  
344 0.6% 96%  
345 0.6% 95%  
346 0.5% 94%  
347 0.5% 94%  
348 0.4% 93%  
349 0.7% 93%  
350 0.7% 92%  
351 0.4% 92%  
352 0.9% 91%  
353 1.3% 90%  
354 1.3% 89%  
355 0.7% 88%  
356 1.5% 87%  
357 0.8% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 1.0% 83%  
360 2% 82%  
361 2% 80%  
362 1.0% 78%  
363 1.4% 77%  
364 1.4% 76%  
365 3% 74%  
366 3% 71%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 3% 67%  
369 4% 64%  
370 3% 61%  
371 3% 57%  
372 2% 55%  
373 2% 53%  
374 2% 50% Median
375 2% 48%  
376 3% 46%  
377 4% 43%  
378 2% 39%  
379 3% 37%  
380 3% 34%  
381 1.4% 32%  
382 2% 30%  
383 2% 28%  
384 3% 26%  
385 1.1% 23%  
386 1.2% 22%  
387 1.1% 21%  
388 2% 20%  
389 0.8% 18%  
390 1.5% 17%  
391 1.1% 16%  
392 0.8% 15%  
393 1.2% 14%  
394 1.3% 13%  
395 1.3% 11%  
396 0.6% 10%  
397 0.7% 9%  
398 0.6% 9%  
399 0.9% 8%  
400 0.8% 7%  
401 0.5% 6%  
402 0.5% 6%  
403 0.8% 6%  
404 0.6% 5%  
405 0.7% 4%  
406 0.5% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.4% 3%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.1% 1.2%  
414 0.2% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9% Last Result
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.6% Majority
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0.1% 99.4%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0.1% 99.2%  
331 0.1% 99.0%  
332 0.2% 98.9%  
333 0.1% 98.8%  
334 0.3% 98.7%  
335 0.2% 98%  
336 0.2% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0.2% 98%  
339 0.5% 98%  
340 0.2% 97%  
341 0.4% 97%  
342 0.3% 97%  
343 0.7% 96%  
344 0.6% 96%  
345 0.6% 95%  
346 0.5% 94%  
347 0.5% 94%  
348 0.4% 93%  
349 0.7% 93%  
350 0.7% 92%  
351 0.4% 92%  
352 0.9% 91%  
353 1.3% 90%  
354 1.3% 89%  
355 0.7% 88%  
356 1.5% 87%  
357 0.8% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 1.0% 83%  
360 2% 82%  
361 2% 80%  
362 1.0% 78%  
363 1.4% 77%  
364 1.4% 76%  
365 3% 74%  
366 3% 71%  
367 1.3% 69%  
368 3% 67%  
369 4% 64%  
370 3% 61%  
371 3% 57%  
372 2% 55%  
373 2% 53%  
374 2% 50% Median
375 2% 48%  
376 3% 46%  
377 4% 43%  
378 2% 39%  
379 3% 37%  
380 3% 34%  
381 1.4% 32%  
382 2% 30%  
383 2% 28%  
384 3% 26%  
385 1.1% 23%  
386 1.2% 22%  
387 1.1% 21%  
388 2% 20%  
389 0.8% 18%  
390 1.5% 17%  
391 1.1% 16%  
392 0.8% 15%  
393 1.2% 14%  
394 1.3% 13%  
395 1.3% 11%  
396 0.6% 10%  
397 0.7% 9%  
398 0.6% 9%  
399 0.9% 8%  
400 0.8% 7%  
401 0.5% 6%  
402 0.5% 6%  
403 0.8% 6%  
404 0.6% 5%  
405 0.7% 4%  
406 0.5% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.4% 3%  
409 0.2% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.1% 1.2%  
414 0.2% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.1% 99.5%  
216 0.1% 99.4%  
217 0.2% 99.3%  
218 0.2% 99.1%  
219 0.1% 98.9%  
220 0.3% 98.8%  
221 0.2% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.2% 98%  
224 0.4% 98%  
225 0.4% 97%  
226 0.5% 97%  
227 0.7% 96%  
228 0.6% 96%  
229 0.8% 95%  
230 0.5% 94%  
231 0.5% 94%  
232 0.8% 94%  
233 0.9% 93%  
234 0.6% 92%  
235 0.7% 91%  
236 0.6% 91%  
237 1.3% 90%  
238 1.3% 89%  
239 1.2% 87%  
240 0.8% 86%  
241 1.1% 85%  
242 1.5% 84%  
243 0.8% 83%  
244 2% 82%  
245 1.1% 80%  
246 1.2% 79%  
247 1.1% 78%  
248 3% 77%  
249 2% 74%  
250 2% 72%  
251 1.4% 70%  
252 3% 68%  
253 3% 66%  
254 2% 63%  
255 4% 61%  
256 3% 57%  
257 2% 54%  
258 2% 52%  
259 2% 50%  
260 2% 47% Median
261 3% 45%  
262 3% 43%  
263 4% 39%  
264 3% 36%  
265 1.3% 33%  
266 3% 31%  
267 3% 29%  
268 1.4% 26%  
269 1.4% 24%  
270 1.0% 23%  
271 2% 22%  
272 2% 20%  
273 1.0% 18%  
274 2% 17%  
275 0.8% 15%  
276 1.5% 14%  
277 0.7% 13%  
278 1.3% 12%  
279 1.3% 11%  
280 0.9% 10%  
281 0.4% 9%  
282 0.7% 8%  
283 0.7% 8%  
284 0.4% 7%  
285 0.5% 7%  
286 0.5% 6%  
287 0.6% 6%  
288 0.6% 5%  
289 0.7% 4%  
290 0.3% 4%  
291 0.4% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.5% 3%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0.2% 2%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.1% 1.3%  
300 0.2% 1.2%  
301 0.1% 1.1%  
302 0.1% 1.0%  
303 0.1% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.7%  
305 0.1% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.4%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1% Last Result
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.8%  
210 0% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0.1% 99.5%  
215 0.1% 99.4%  
216 0.2% 99.3%  
217 0.2% 99.1%  
218 0.1% 98.9%  
219 0.3% 98.8%  
220 0.2% 98%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.2% 98%  
223 0.4% 98%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 0.5% 97%  
226 0.7% 96%  
227 0.6% 96%  
228 0.8% 95%  
229 0.5% 94%  
230 0.5% 94%  
231 0.8% 94%  
232 0.9% 93%  
233 0.6% 92%  
234 0.7% 91%  
235 0.6% 91%  
236 1.3% 90%  
237 1.3% 89%  
238 1.2% 87%  
239 0.8% 86%  
240 1.1% 85%  
241 1.5% 84%  
242 0.8% 83%  
243 2% 82%  
244 1.1% 80%  
245 1.2% 79%  
246 1.1% 78%  
247 3% 77%  
248 2% 74%  
249 2% 72%  
250 1.4% 70%  
251 3% 68%  
252 3% 66%  
253 2% 63%  
254 4% 61%  
255 3% 57%  
256 2% 54%  
257 2% 52%  
258 2% 50%  
259 2% 47% Median
260 3% 45%  
261 3% 42%  
262 4% 39%  
263 3% 36%  
264 1.3% 33%  
265 3% 31%  
266 3% 29%  
267 1.4% 26%  
268 1.4% 24%  
269 1.0% 23%  
270 2% 22%  
271 2% 20%  
272 1.0% 18%  
273 2% 17%  
274 0.8% 15%  
275 1.5% 14%  
276 0.7% 13%  
277 1.2% 12%  
278 1.3% 11%  
279 0.9% 10%  
280 0.4% 9%  
281 0.7% 8%  
282 0.7% 8%  
283 0.4% 7%  
284 0.5% 7%  
285 0.5% 6%  
286 0.6% 5%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.7% 4%  
289 0.3% 4%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.5% 3%  
293 0.2% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.2% 2%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.1% 1.3%  
299 0.2% 1.2%  
300 0.1% 1.0%  
301 0.1% 1.0%  
302 0.1% 0.8%  
303 0.1% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1% Last Result
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.6%  
206 0.1% 99.6%  
207 0.1% 99.4%  
208 0.2% 99.3%  
209 0.2% 99.2%  
210 0.1% 98.9%  
211 0.2% 98.8%  
212 0.2% 98.6%  
213 0.2% 98%  
214 0.4% 98%  
215 0.3% 98%  
216 0.2% 97%  
217 0.6% 97%  
218 0.5% 97%  
219 0.5% 96%  
220 0.6% 96%  
221 0.4% 95%  
222 0.9% 95%  
223 0.7% 94%  
224 0.6% 93%  
225 0.7% 93%  
226 0.6% 92%  
227 0.6% 91%  
228 1.1% 91%  
229 1.2% 89%  
230 1.1% 88%  
231 0.6% 87%  
232 1.0% 86%  
233 1.0% 85%  
234 1.3% 84%  
235 2% 83%  
236 1.3% 81%  
237 1.4% 80%  
238 1.0% 79%  
239 3% 78%  
240 1.1% 75%  
241 1.0% 74%  
242 2% 73%  
243 4% 71%  
244 2% 67%  
245 2% 65%  
246 4% 63%  
247 2% 59%  
248 2% 57%  
249 2% 56%  
250 2% 54%  
251 4% 52%  
252 3% 48% Median
253 3% 45%  
254 4% 43%  
255 2% 39%  
256 3% 37%  
257 2% 34%  
258 2% 32%  
259 2% 31%  
260 1.2% 28%  
261 2% 27%  
262 2% 25%  
263 2% 23%  
264 2% 21%  
265 1.0% 19%  
266 0.6% 18%  
267 2% 17%  
268 0.6% 15%  
269 2% 15%  
270 0.8% 13%  
271 2% 12%  
272 0.5% 10%  
273 0.4% 10%  
274 1.4% 10%  
275 0.7% 8%  
276 0.5% 7%  
277 0.7% 7%  
278 0.5% 6%  
279 0.4% 6%  
280 0.5% 5%  
281 0.3% 5%  
282 0.5% 5%  
283 0.4% 4%  
284 0.7% 4%  
285 0.2% 3%  
286 0.5% 3%  
287 0.2% 2%  
288 0.3% 2%  
289 0.2% 2%  
290 0.1% 2%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.1% 1.4%  
293 0.1% 1.2%  
294 0.1% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 1.0%  
296 0.1% 0.9%  
297 0.1% 0.7%  
298 0.1% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0% 0.5%  
301 0% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1% Last Result
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.7%  
182 0.1% 99.6%  
183 0.1% 99.5%  
184 0.1% 99.4%  
185 0.2% 99.3%  
186 0.2% 99.1%  
187 0.2% 98.9%  
188 0.4% 98.7%  
189 0.2% 98%  
190 0.3% 98%  
191 0.3% 98%  
192 0.6% 98%  
193 0.3% 97%  
194 0.5% 97%  
195 0.5% 96%  
196 0.4% 96%  
197 0.6% 95%  
198 1.3% 95%  
199 0.5% 93%  
200 0.5% 93%  
201 1.0% 92%  
202 0.7% 91%  
203 0.9% 91%  
204 0.7% 90%  
205 0.7% 89%  
206 0.9% 88%  
207 2% 87%  
208 2% 86%  
209 0.8% 84%  
210 1.1% 83%  
211 1.1% 82%  
212 3% 81%  
213 2% 78%  
214 3% 77%  
215 1.5% 74%  
216 1.2% 73%  
217 2% 71%  
218 2% 70%  
219 4% 68%  
220 2% 64%  
221 3% 63%  
222 2% 60%  
223 3% 58%  
224 4% 55%  
225 4% 51%  
226 2% 47%  
227 3% 45% Median
228 2% 43%  
229 2% 41%  
230 5% 39%  
231 4% 34%  
232 2% 30%  
233 2% 28%  
234 2% 26%  
235 1.5% 24%  
236 3% 23%  
237 0.9% 20%  
238 1.4% 19%  
239 2% 18%  
240 2% 16%  
241 1.4% 14%  
242 1.0% 13%  
243 0.9% 12%  
244 0.6% 11%  
245 1.2% 10%  
246 0.8% 9%  
247 0.9% 8%  
248 0.6% 8%  
249 0.4% 7%  
250 0.5% 7%  
251 0.9% 6%  
252 0.5% 5%  
253 0.5% 5%  
254 0.4% 4%  
255 0.5% 4%  
256 0.2% 3%  
257 0.4% 3%  
258 0.5% 3%  
259 0.3% 2%  
260 0.2% 2%  
261 0.2% 2%  
262 0.2% 1.5%  
263 0.2% 1.3%  
264 0% 1.1%  
265 0.2% 1.1%  
266 0.1% 0.9%  
267 0.1% 0.8%  
268 0.2% 0.7%  
269 0.1% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0.1% 0.3%  
273 0% 0.3%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0.1% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.1% 99.3%  
178 0.2% 99.2%  
179 0.2% 99.0%  
180 0.2% 98.8%  
181 0.4% 98.6%  
182 0.3% 98%  
183 0.3% 98%  
184 0.4% 98%  
185 0.3% 97%  
186 0.2% 97%  
187 0.4% 97%  
188 0.8% 96%  
189 0.5% 95%  
190 0.7% 95%  
191 0.5% 94%  
192 0.5% 94%  
193 1.2% 93%  
194 1.3% 92%  
195 0.7% 91%  
196 0.5% 90%  
197 0.6% 90%  
198 1.0% 89%  
199 0.8% 88%  
200 2% 87%  
201 0.5% 85%  
202 0.7% 85%  
203 2% 84%  
204 2% 82%  
205 2% 81%  
206 3% 79%  
207 2% 76%  
208 1.2% 74%  
209 2% 73%  
210 1.2% 71%  
211 3% 70%  
212 1.3% 67%  
213 3% 66%  
214 2% 63%  
215 3% 60%  
216 3% 57%  
217 4% 54%  
218 2% 51%  
219 3% 49%  
220 2% 46% Median
221 2% 44%  
222 3% 42%  
223 4% 38%  
224 2% 35%  
225 3% 33%  
226 3% 31%  
227 2% 27%  
228 1.4% 26%  
229 2% 24%  
230 2% 22%  
231 1.2% 20%  
232 2% 19%  
233 2% 18%  
234 1.2% 16%  
235 1.5% 15%  
236 1.2% 13%  
237 0.7% 12%  
238 1.4% 11%  
239 1.1% 10%  
240 0.8% 9%  
241 0.7% 8%  
242 0.6% 7%  
243 0.2% 7%  
244 0.8% 7%  
245 0.3% 6%  
246 0.7% 5%  
247 0.5% 5%  
248 0.6% 4%  
249 0.4% 4%  
250 0.3% 3%  
251 0.3% 3%  
252 0.3% 3%  
253 0.2% 2%  
254 0.4% 2%  
255 0.3% 2%  
256 0.2% 1.4%  
257 0.1% 1.2%  
258 0.1% 1.1%  
259 0.1% 1.0%  
260 0.2% 0.9%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.6%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.8%  
178 0.1% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.7%  
180 0.2% 99.6%  
181 0.2% 99.4%  
182 0.1% 99.2%  
183 0.2% 99.1%  
184 0.2% 98.8%  
185 0.1% 98.6%  
186 0.4% 98.5%  
187 0.3% 98%  
188 0.4% 98%  
189 0.7% 97%  
190 1.2% 97%  
191 1.1% 96%  
192 0.7% 94%  
193 0.6% 94%  
194 0.2% 93%  
195 0.9% 93%  
196 1.4% 92%  
197 0.8% 91%  
198 1.2% 90%  
199 0.7% 89%  
200 0.7% 88%  
201 0.6% 87%  
202 2% 87%  
203 1.2% 85%  
204 0.5% 83%  
205 0.4% 83%  
206 0.6% 82%  
207 3% 82%  
208 2% 79%  
209 1.4% 77%  
210 1.2% 75%  
211 2% 74%  
212 2% 72%  
213 4% 70%  
214 3% 66%  
215 4% 63%  
216 3% 59%  
217 3% 57%  
218 4% 54% Median
219 3% 50%  
220 4% 47%  
221 4% 43%  
222 3% 39%  
223 2% 36%  
224 4% 34%  
225 3% 30%  
226 3% 27%  
227 2% 24%  
228 1.4% 22%  
229 2% 21%  
230 1.3% 18%  
231 1.1% 17%  
232 0.7% 16%  
233 0.8% 15%  
234 1.4% 14%  
235 0.6% 13%  
236 0.5% 12%  
237 1.0% 12%  
238 0.7% 11%  
239 0.9% 10%  
240 0.9% 9%  
241 1.3% 8%  
242 0.9% 7%  
243 0.6% 6%  
244 0.8% 6%  
245 0.6% 5%  
246 0.3% 4%  
247 0.2% 4%  
248 0.5% 4%  
249 0.3% 3%  
250 0.3% 3%  
251 0.4% 3%  
252 0.2% 2%  
253 0.2% 2%  
254 0.1% 2%  
255 0.1% 2%  
256 0.2% 2%  
257 0.1% 1.4%  
258 0.2% 1.2%  
259 0.2% 1.1%  
260 0.1% 0.9%  
261 0.1% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.7%  
263 0.1% 0.6%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.4%  
267 0% 0.3%  
268 0% 0.3%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1% Last Result
279 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.6%  
172 0.1% 99.5%  
173 0.2% 99.4%  
174 0.1% 99.3%  
175 0.3% 99.1%  
176 0.1% 98.9%  
177 0.3% 98.8%  
178 0.3% 98.5%  
179 0.4% 98%  
180 0.6% 98%  
181 0.6% 97%  
182 0.8% 97%  
183 0.5% 96%  
184 0.7% 95%  
185 0.6% 95%  
186 0.6% 94%  
187 1.2% 93%  
188 0.7% 92%  
189 1.0% 91%  
190 0.5% 90%  
191 0.5% 90%  
192 2% 89%  
193 0.5% 88%  
194 1.2% 87%  
195 1.5% 86%  
196 0.6% 85%  
197 0.9% 84%  
198 1.4% 83%  
199 1.2% 82%  
200 2% 80%  
201 0.9% 79%  
202 1.5% 78%  
203 3% 76%  
204 2% 73%  
205 3% 71%  
206 2% 68%  
207 3% 66%  
208 2% 63%  
209 3% 61%  
210 5% 58%  
211 3% 53% Median
212 2% 50%  
213 3% 47%  
214 3% 44%  
215 4% 41%  
216 2% 37%  
217 2% 35%  
218 2% 33%  
219 4% 31%  
220 3% 27%  
221 1.3% 24%  
222 3% 23%  
223 2% 20%  
224 1.0% 18%  
225 1.0% 17%  
226 1.0% 16%  
227 1.1% 15%  
228 0.8% 14%  
229 0.7% 13%  
230 1.4% 13%  
231 0.7% 11%  
232 0.5% 10%  
233 1.4% 10%  
234 0.5% 9%  
235 0.9% 8%  
236 0.8% 7%  
237 0.7% 6%  
238 0.7% 6%  
239 1.0% 5%  
240 0.3% 4%  
241 0.4% 4%  
242 0.3% 3%  
243 0.3% 3%  
244 0.2% 3%  
245 0.4% 3%  
246 0.2% 2%  
247 0.2% 2%  
248 0.2% 2%  
249 0.1% 2%  
250 0.2% 2%  
251 0.1% 1.3%  
252 0.2% 1.3%  
253 0.1% 1.1%  
254 0.1% 1.0%  
255 0.2% 0.9%  
256 0.1% 0.7%  
257 0.1% 0.6%  
258 0% 0.5%  
259 0.1% 0.5%  
260 0.1% 0.4%  
261 0% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.3%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 99.1%  
153 0.2% 98.8%  
154 0.2% 98.6%  
155 0.4% 98%  
156 0.4% 98%  
157 0.3% 98%  
158 0.7% 97%  
159 0.9% 97%  
160 1.3% 96%  
161 1.4% 94%  
162 0.3% 93%  
163 0.1% 93%  
164 0.6% 92%  
165 1.2% 92%  
166 1.2% 91%  
167 2% 89%  
168 0.8% 88%  
169 0.7% 87%  
170 0.6% 86%  
171 2% 86%  
172 0.9% 84%  
173 1.5% 83%  
174 0.8% 81%  
175 1.0% 81%  
176 2% 80%  
177 2% 78%  
178 4% 76%  
179 1.4% 72%  
180 1.1% 71%  
181 0.8% 70%  
182 3% 69%  
183 5% 66%  
184 4% 61%  
185 4% 57%  
186 6% 54% Median
187 1.0% 47%  
188 5% 46%  
189 8% 42%  
190 4% 34%  
191 4% 30%  
192 1.0% 26%  
193 0.9% 25%  
194 3% 24%  
195 1.0% 21%  
196 2% 20%  
197 2% 18%  
198 2% 17%  
199 0.6% 15%  
200 1.0% 14%  
201 1.1% 13%  
202 0.9% 12%  
203 0.4% 11%  
204 0.6% 11%  
205 0.7% 10%  
206 0.9% 9%  
207 1.0% 8%  
208 0.7% 7%  
209 0.8% 7%  
210 1.4% 6%  
211 0.6% 4%  
212 0.7% 4%  
213 0.1% 3%  
214 0.1% 3%  
215 0.2% 3%  
216 0.3% 3%  
217 0.4% 2%  
218 0.2% 2%  
219 0.2% 2%  
220 0.3% 2%  
221 0.3% 1.4%  
222 0.1% 1.2%  
223 0.1% 1.0%  
224 0% 0.9%  
225 0.1% 0.9%  
226 0.1% 0.8%  
227 0.2% 0.7%  
228 0.1% 0.4%  
229 0.1% 0.4%  
230 0% 0.3%  
231 0% 0.3%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.1% 99.4%  
143 0.1% 99.3%  
144 0.2% 99.2%  
145 0.2% 98.9%  
146 0.2% 98.8%  
147 0.3% 98.5%  
148 0.5% 98%  
149 0.4% 98%  
150 0.5% 97%  
151 0.9% 97%  
152 0.8% 96%  
153 0.8% 95%  
154 0.8% 94%  
155 0.9% 94%  
156 0.8% 93%  
157 0.6% 92%  
158 0.9% 91%  
159 1.0% 90%  
160 0.5% 89%  
161 1.4% 89%  
162 1.1% 87%  
163 1.3% 86%  
164 0.7% 85%  
165 0.7% 84%  
166 2% 84%  
167 0.8% 81%  
168 2% 80%  
169 1.0% 79%  
170 2% 78%  
171 2% 76%  
172 2% 74%  
173 2% 72%  
174 2% 70%  
175 4% 67%  
176 2% 63%  
177 2% 61%  
178 6% 59%  
179 4% 53% Median
180 2% 49%  
181 7% 47%  
182 2% 40%  
183 3% 38%  
184 5% 35%  
185 4% 30%  
186 3% 26%  
187 1.1% 23%  
188 1.0% 22%  
189 2% 21%  
190 2% 20%  
191 0.9% 18%  
192 2% 17%  
193 2% 15%  
194 0.7% 14%  
195 0.8% 13%  
196 0.4% 12%  
197 1.4% 12%  
198 0.7% 10%  
199 1.0% 10%  
200 0.4% 9%  
201 0.6% 8%  
202 1.5% 8%  
203 0.9% 6%  
204 0.6% 5%  
205 0.8% 5%  
206 0.5% 4%  
207 0.6% 3%  
208 0.2% 3%  
209 0.1% 3%  
210 0.2% 3%  
211 0.3% 2%  
212 0.2% 2%  
213 0.3% 2%  
214 0.2% 2%  
215 0.2% 1.5%  
216 0.2% 1.3%  
217 0.1% 1.1%  
218 0.1% 1.0%  
219 0.1% 0.9%  
220 0.1% 0.7%  
221 0.1% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.5%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0% 0.3%  
225 0% 0.3%  
226 0% 0.2%  
227 0% 0.2%  
228 0% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations