Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 15–18 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 41.9% 40.5–43.3% 40.1–43.7% 39.8–44.1% 39.1–44.7%
Labour Party 41.0% 31.9% 30.6–33.3% 30.3–33.7% 29.9–34.0% 29.3–34.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.4%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 352 333–370 329–373 325–377 317–382
Labour Party 262 207 192–225 188–228 187–232 183–240
Liberal Democrats 12 32 30–36 30–38 30–38 29–40
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 40 31–45 25–47 20–48 14–50
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.1% 99.3%  
320 0.3% 99.1%  
321 0.2% 98.9%  
322 0.2% 98.7%  
323 0.3% 98.5%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.6% 97% Majority
327 0.8% 97%  
328 0.6% 96%  
329 0.9% 95%  
330 0.8% 94%  
331 0.7% 94%  
332 2% 93%  
333 2% 91%  
334 1.4% 89%  
335 3% 88%  
336 0.6% 85%  
337 2% 84%  
338 1.1% 83%  
339 3% 82%  
340 3% 79%  
341 2% 77%  
342 2% 75%  
343 2% 72%  
344 2% 70%  
345 3% 68%  
346 3% 65%  
347 1.3% 62%  
348 2% 61%  
349 2% 59%  
350 2% 57%  
351 3% 55%  
352 4% 52% Median
353 2% 48%  
354 4% 46%  
355 2% 42%  
356 4% 41%  
357 3% 36%  
358 2% 34%  
359 3% 31%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 1.1% 23%  
363 2% 22%  
364 1.4% 19%  
365 1.1% 18%  
366 1.3% 17%  
367 1.3% 15%  
368 2% 14%  
369 1.3% 12%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 9%  
372 1.5% 8%  
373 1.2% 6%  
374 0.8% 5%  
375 0.8% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.7% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.4% 1.1%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.3% 99.6%  
184 0% 99.2%  
185 0.3% 99.2%  
186 1.2% 98.9%  
187 2% 98%  
188 3% 96%  
189 0.3% 93%  
190 0.4% 93%  
191 1.4% 92%  
192 2% 91%  
193 1.3% 89%  
194 1.1% 88%  
195 4% 87%  
196 0.8% 83%  
197 2% 82%  
198 0.8% 80%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 3% 74%  
202 2% 71%  
203 1.1% 70%  
204 4% 68%  
205 3% 64%  
206 4% 61%  
207 7% 57% Median
208 5% 49%  
209 4% 44%  
210 1.5% 40%  
211 0.7% 38%  
212 1.2% 38%  
213 3% 36%  
214 3% 33%  
215 1.2% 30%  
216 1.3% 28%  
217 2% 27%  
218 4% 25%  
219 3% 22%  
220 0.9% 19%  
221 2% 18%  
222 1.3% 17%  
223 2% 15%  
224 3% 13%  
225 3% 11%  
226 1.0% 8%  
227 1.1% 7%  
228 0.8% 6%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.8% 4%  
231 0.4% 3%  
232 0.7% 3%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.1% 2%  
235 0.3% 2%  
236 0.5% 2%  
237 0.4% 1.2%  
238 0.1% 0.8%  
239 0.1% 0.6%  
240 0.1% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0.1% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.5% 99.7%  
30 14% 99.3%  
31 16% 85%  
32 26% 69% Median
33 21% 43%  
34 2% 23%  
35 8% 20%  
36 3% 12%  
37 4% 9%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0.1% 99.8%  
11 0.1% 99.7%  
12 0% 99.7%  
13 0.1% 99.6%  
14 0.2% 99.5%  
15 0.1% 99.3%  
16 0.3% 99.2%  
17 0.4% 99.0%  
18 0.5% 98.5%  
19 0.4% 98%  
20 0.4% 98%  
21 0.3% 97%  
22 0.4% 97%  
23 1.0% 96%  
24 0.3% 95%  
25 0.3% 95%  
26 0.5% 95%  
27 0.2% 94%  
28 2% 94%  
29 0.2% 93%  
30 0.5% 92%  
31 3% 92%  
32 5% 89%  
33 9% 84%  
34 4% 75%  
35 3% 72% Last Result
36 3% 69%  
37 7% 65%  
38 4% 59%  
39 4% 54%  
40 4% 50% Median
41 29% 46%  
42 5% 17%  
43 0.6% 12%  
44 0.1% 12%  
45 6% 12%  
46 0% 6%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0% 1.2%  
50 1.1% 1.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 2% 36%  
2 15% 34%  
3 17% 18%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 391 100% 373–407 368–412 364–413 355–417
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 390 100% 372–406 367–411 363–413 354–417
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 384 100% 366–402 363–406 359–409 352–414
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 353 98% 334–371 330–374 326–378 318–383
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 352 97% 333–370 329–373 325–377 317–382
Conservative Party 317 352 97% 333–370 329–373 325–377 317–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 280 0% 262–299 259–303 255–307 250–315
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 279 0% 261–298 258–302 254–306 249–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 278 0% 260–297 257–301 253–305 248–313
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 247 0% 229–265 225–268 222–272 217–279
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 246 0% 229–264 225–267 221–271 216–278
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 241 0% 225–259 220–264 218–268 214–277
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 240 0% 224–258 219–263 218–267 214–276
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 209 0% 193–226 188–229 188–233 183–241
Labour Party 262 207 0% 192–225 188–228 187–232 183–240

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.7%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.6%  
356 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
357 0.2% 99.4%  
358 0.2% 99.2%  
359 0.3% 99.0%  
360 0.2% 98.7%  
361 0.3% 98.5%  
362 0.2% 98%  
363 0.5% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.6% 97%  
366 0.4% 97%  
367 0.6% 96%  
368 0.8% 96%  
369 0.9% 95%  
370 1.1% 94%  
371 0.9% 93%  
372 1.3% 92%  
373 3% 91%  
374 2% 88%  
375 2% 86%  
376 2% 84%  
377 2% 83%  
378 1.1% 80%  
379 2% 79%  
380 1.4% 78%  
381 2% 76%  
382 2% 74%  
383 2% 72%  
384 0.9% 70%  
385 3% 69%  
386 3% 66%  
387 3% 63%  
388 1.1% 60%  
389 4% 59%  
390 3% 55%  
391 4% 52%  
392 5% 48% Median
393 5% 43%  
394 3% 38%  
395 3% 35%  
396 2% 32%  
397 2% 30%  
398 2% 28%  
399 2% 26%  
400 1.1% 23%  
401 2% 22%  
402 2% 20%  
403 1.2% 17%  
404 1.4% 16%  
405 2% 15%  
406 2% 12%  
407 1.2% 11%  
408 2% 10%  
409 0.8% 8%  
410 0.6% 7%  
411 1.3% 6%  
412 1.3% 5%  
413 1.5% 4%  
414 0.9% 2%  
415 0.6% 1.4%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.7%  
418 0.2% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
353 0% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.5%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0.1% 99.3%  
357 0.2% 99.2%  
358 0.2% 99.0%  
359 0.3% 98.8%  
360 0.2% 98%  
361 0.3% 98%  
362 0.2% 98%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0.2% 97%  
365 0.9% 97%  
366 0.5% 96%  
367 0.9% 96%  
368 0.9% 95%  
369 0.9% 94%  
370 1.0% 93%  
371 0.8% 92%  
372 3% 91%  
373 3% 89%  
374 1.3% 86%  
375 2% 85%  
376 2% 83%  
377 2% 81%  
378 1.1% 79%  
379 2% 78%  
380 3% 76%  
381 2% 73%  
382 2% 71%  
383 2% 70%  
384 2% 68%  
385 2% 66%  
386 2% 64%  
387 3% 61%  
388 2% 58%  
389 5% 56%  
390 4% 51%  
391 4% 47%  
392 2% 43% Median
393 5% 41%  
394 2% 36%  
395 3% 33%  
396 2% 30%  
397 1.3% 28%  
398 3% 26%  
399 2% 24%  
400 0.9% 22%  
401 2% 21%  
402 3% 19%  
403 2% 16%  
404 2% 14%  
405 2% 13%  
406 2% 11%  
407 0.7% 9%  
408 2% 9%  
409 0.5% 7%  
410 0.8% 6%  
411 2% 6%  
412 1.4% 4%  
413 1.1% 3%  
414 0.5% 1.4%  
415 0.3% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0.2% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0.1% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.5%  
354 0.3% 99.3%  
355 0.2% 99.0%  
356 0.2% 98.7%  
357 0.3% 98.6%  
358 0.4% 98%  
359 0.4% 98%  
360 1.0% 97%  
361 0.4% 96%  
362 0.7% 96%  
363 1.0% 95%  
364 1.2% 94%  
365 2% 93%  
366 2% 91%  
367 2% 89%  
368 1.2% 88%  
369 1.2% 87%  
370 2% 85%  
371 2% 84%  
372 3% 82%  
373 1.4% 78%  
374 2% 77%  
375 2% 75%  
376 2% 72%  
377 3% 70%  
378 2% 67%  
379 3% 65%  
380 2% 63%  
381 2% 60%  
382 2% 58%  
383 4% 56%  
384 3% 52% Median
385 2% 50%  
386 3% 47%  
387 3% 44%  
388 2% 41%  
389 4% 39%  
390 2% 35%  
391 4% 33%  
392 2% 29%  
393 2% 26%  
394 2% 24%  
395 3% 22%  
396 1.1% 19%  
397 1.3% 18%  
398 1.1% 17%  
399 2% 16%  
400 1.2% 14%  
401 1.4% 12%  
402 2% 11%  
403 1.5% 9%  
404 1.0% 7%  
405 0.6% 6%  
406 2% 6%  
407 1.1% 4%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.5% 3%  
410 0.6% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.4%  
412 0.4% 1.1%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.2% 99.6%  
319 0.1% 99.4%  
320 0.1% 99.3%  
321 0.2% 99.2% Last Result
322 0.3% 99.0%  
323 0.3% 98.7%  
324 0.1% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.6% 98% Majority
327 0.7% 97%  
328 0.5% 96%  
329 0.8% 96%  
330 0.7% 95%  
331 0.6% 94%  
332 2% 94%  
333 1.3% 92%  
334 1.3% 91%  
335 3% 89%  
336 1.0% 87%  
337 1.3% 86%  
338 1.2% 84%  
339 1.5% 83%  
340 2% 82%  
341 2% 79%  
342 2% 77%  
343 2% 75%  
344 2% 73%  
345 4% 71%  
346 2% 67%  
347 2% 65%  
348 1.2% 63%  
349 3% 62%  
350 2% 59%  
351 2% 57%  
352 3% 55% Median
353 4% 52%  
354 3% 48%  
355 2% 45%  
356 5% 43%  
357 2% 38%  
358 2% 36%  
359 4% 34%  
360 3% 30%  
361 3% 27%  
362 0.8% 24%  
363 2% 23%  
364 2% 21%  
365 1.3% 19%  
366 1.2% 18%  
367 1.3% 16%  
368 2% 15%  
369 1.4% 13%  
370 2% 12%  
371 1.3% 10%  
372 1.5% 9%  
373 2% 7%  
374 1.0% 6%  
375 0.5% 5%  
376 0.4% 4%  
377 1.0% 4%  
378 0.7% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.1%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.1% 99.3%  
320 0.3% 99.1%  
321 0.2% 98.9%  
322 0.2% 98.7%  
323 0.3% 98.5%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.6% 97% Majority
327 0.8% 97%  
328 0.6% 96%  
329 0.9% 95%  
330 0.8% 94%  
331 0.7% 94%  
332 2% 93%  
333 2% 91%  
334 1.4% 89%  
335 3% 88%  
336 0.6% 85%  
337 2% 84%  
338 1.1% 83%  
339 3% 82%  
340 3% 79%  
341 2% 77%  
342 2% 75%  
343 2% 72%  
344 2% 70%  
345 3% 68%  
346 3% 65%  
347 1.3% 62%  
348 2% 61%  
349 2% 59%  
350 2% 57%  
351 3% 55%  
352 4% 52% Median
353 2% 48%  
354 4% 46%  
355 2% 42%  
356 4% 41%  
357 3% 36%  
358 2% 34%  
359 3% 31%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 1.1% 23%  
363 2% 22%  
364 1.4% 19%  
365 1.1% 18%  
366 1.3% 17%  
367 1.3% 15%  
368 2% 14%  
369 1.3% 12%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 9%  
372 1.5% 8%  
373 1.2% 6%  
374 0.8% 5%  
375 0.8% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.7% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.4% 1.1%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
318 0.2% 99.4%  
319 0.1% 99.3%  
320 0.3% 99.1%  
321 0.2% 98.9%  
322 0.2% 98.7%  
323 0.3% 98.5%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.6% 97% Majority
327 0.8% 97%  
328 0.6% 96%  
329 0.9% 95%  
330 0.8% 94%  
331 0.7% 94%  
332 2% 93%  
333 2% 91%  
334 1.4% 89%  
335 3% 88%  
336 0.6% 85%  
337 2% 84%  
338 1.1% 83%  
339 3% 82%  
340 3% 79%  
341 2% 77%  
342 2% 75%  
343 2% 72%  
344 2% 70%  
345 3% 68%  
346 3% 65%  
347 1.3% 62%  
348 2% 61%  
349 2% 59%  
350 2% 57%  
351 3% 55%  
352 4% 52% Median
353 2% 48%  
354 4% 46%  
355 2% 42%  
356 4% 41%  
357 3% 36%  
358 2% 34%  
359 3% 31%  
360 2% 28%  
361 3% 26%  
362 1.1% 23%  
363 2% 22%  
364 1.4% 19%  
365 1.1% 18%  
366 1.3% 17%  
367 1.3% 15%  
368 2% 14%  
369 1.3% 12%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 9%  
372 1.5% 8%  
373 1.2% 6%  
374 0.8% 5%  
375 0.8% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.7% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.4% 1.1%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.4%  
252 0.4% 99.2%  
253 0.4% 98.9%  
254 0.6% 98%  
255 0.7% 98%  
256 0.5% 97%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.8% 96%  
259 1.2% 95%  
260 1.5% 94%  
261 2% 92%  
262 2% 91%  
263 1.3% 89%  
264 2% 88%  
265 1.3% 86%  
266 1.3% 85%  
267 1.1% 83%  
268 1.4% 82%  
269 2% 81%  
270 1.1% 78%  
271 3% 77%  
272 2% 74%  
273 3% 72%  
274 2% 69%  
275 3% 66%  
276 4% 64%  
277 2% 59%  
278 4% 58%  
279 2% 54%  
280 4% 52% Median
281 3% 48%  
282 2% 45%  
283 2% 43%  
284 2% 41%  
285 1.3% 39%  
286 3% 38%  
287 3% 35%  
288 2% 32%  
289 2% 30%  
290 2% 28%  
291 2% 25%  
292 3% 23%  
293 3% 21%  
294 1.1% 18%  
295 2% 17%  
296 0.6% 16%  
297 3% 15%  
298 1.4% 12%  
299 2% 11%  
300 2% 9%  
301 0.7% 7%  
302 0.8% 6%  
303 0.9% 6%  
304 0.6% 5%  
305 0.8% 4%  
306 0.6% 3%  
307 0.6% 3%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 1.5%  
311 0.2% 1.3%  
312 0.3% 1.1%  
313 0.1% 0.9%  
314 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.4%  
251 0.4% 99.2%  
252 0.4% 98.9%  
253 0.6% 98%  
254 0.7% 98%  
255 0.5% 97%  
256 0.8% 97%  
257 0.8% 96%  
258 1.2% 95%  
259 1.5% 94%  
260 2% 92%  
261 2% 91%  
262 1.3% 89%  
263 2% 88%  
264 1.3% 86%  
265 1.3% 85%  
266 1.1% 83%  
267 1.4% 82%  
268 2% 81%  
269 1.1% 78%  
270 3% 77%  
271 2% 74%  
272 3% 72%  
273 2% 69%  
274 3% 66%  
275 4% 64%  
276 2% 59%  
277 4% 58%  
278 2% 54%  
279 4% 52% Median
280 3% 48%  
281 2% 45%  
282 2% 43%  
283 2% 41%  
284 1.3% 39%  
285 3% 38%  
286 3% 35%  
287 2% 32%  
288 2% 30%  
289 2% 28%  
290 2% 25%  
291 3% 23%  
292 3% 21%  
293 1.1% 18%  
294 2% 17%  
295 0.6% 16%  
296 3% 15%  
297 1.4% 12%  
298 2% 11%  
299 2% 9%  
300 0.7% 7%  
301 0.8% 6%  
302 0.9% 6%  
303 0.6% 5%  
304 0.8% 4%  
305 0.6% 3%  
306 0.6% 3%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.2% 1.5%  
310 0.2% 1.3%  
311 0.3% 1.1%  
312 0.1% 0.9%  
313 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.2% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.2% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.4%  
250 0.3% 99.2%  
251 0.5% 98.9%  
252 0.4% 98%  
253 0.7% 98%  
254 1.0% 97%  
255 0.4% 96%  
256 0.5% 96%  
257 1.0% 95%  
258 2% 94%  
259 1.5% 93%  
260 1.3% 91%  
261 2% 90%  
262 1.4% 88%  
263 2% 87%  
264 1.3% 85%  
265 1.2% 84%  
266 1.3% 82%  
267 2% 81%  
268 2% 79%  
269 0.8% 77%  
270 3% 76%  
271 3% 73%  
272 4% 70%  
273 2% 66%  
274 2% 64%  
275 5% 62%  
276 2% 57%  
277 3% 55%  
278 4% 52%  
279 3% 48% Median
280 2% 45%  
281 2% 43%  
282 3% 41%  
283 1.2% 38%  
284 2% 37%  
285 2% 35%  
286 4% 33%  
287 2% 29%  
288 2% 27%  
289 2% 25%  
290 2% 23%  
291 2% 21%  
292 1.5% 18%  
293 1.2% 17%  
294 1.3% 16%  
295 1.0% 14%  
296 3% 13%  
297 1.3% 11%  
298 1.3% 9%  
299 2% 8%  
300 0.6% 6%  
301 0.7% 6%  
302 0.8% 5%  
303 0.5% 4%  
304 0.7% 4%  
305 0.6% 3%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
310 0.2% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0.1% 99.7%  
217 0.1% 99.6%  
218 0.1% 99.5%  
219 0.4% 99.3%  
220 0.2% 98.9%  
221 0.6% 98.6%  
222 0.5% 98%  
223 0.5% 97%  
224 1.1% 97%  
225 2% 96%  
226 0.6% 94%  
227 1.0% 94%  
228 1.5% 93%  
229 2% 91%  
230 1.4% 89%  
231 1.2% 88%  
232 2% 86%  
233 1.1% 84%  
234 1.3% 83%  
235 1.1% 82%  
236 3% 81%  
237 2% 78%  
238 2% 76%  
239 2% 74%  
240 4% 71%  
241 2% 67%  
242 4% 65%  
243 2% 61%  
244 3% 59%  
245 3% 56%  
246 2% 53%  
247 3% 50% Median
248 4% 48%  
249 2% 44%  
250 2% 42%  
251 2% 40%  
252 3% 37%  
253 2% 35%  
254 3% 33%  
255 2% 30%  
256 2% 28%  
257 2% 25%  
258 1.4% 23%  
259 3% 22%  
260 2% 18%  
261 2% 16%  
262 1.2% 15%  
263 1.2% 13%  
264 2% 12%  
265 2% 11%  
266 2% 9%  
267 1.2% 7%  
268 1.0% 6%  
269 0.7% 5%  
270 0.4% 4%  
271 1.0% 4%  
272 0.4% 3%  
273 0.4% 2%  
274 0.3% 2%  
275 0.2% 1.4%  
276 0.2% 1.3%  
277 0.3% 1.0%  
278 0.2% 0.7%  
279 0.2% 0.5%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.7%  
216 0.2% 99.6%  
217 0.2% 99.4%  
218 0.1% 99.2%  
219 0.4% 99.1%  
220 0.5% 98.7%  
221 0.8% 98%  
222 1.0% 97%  
223 0.4% 96%  
224 0.9% 96%  
225 2% 95%  
226 0.6% 94%  
227 1.2% 93%  
228 2% 92%  
229 2% 90%  
230 1.3% 88%  
231 1.1% 86%  
232 2% 85%  
233 0.9% 83%  
234 2% 83%  
235 1.5% 81%  
236 3% 79%  
237 3% 77%  
238 2% 74%  
239 3% 72%  
240 4% 70%  
241 2% 65%  
242 5% 63%  
243 2% 58%  
244 2% 56%  
245 3% 54%  
246 4% 51%  
247 3% 47% Median
248 2% 44%  
249 3% 42%  
250 2% 38%  
251 2% 36%  
252 2% 35%  
253 2% 33%  
254 4% 30%  
255 3% 27%  
256 1.3% 24%  
257 2% 23%  
258 2% 21%  
259 2% 18%  
260 2% 16%  
261 0.9% 14%  
262 0.7% 13%  
263 2% 13%  
264 2% 11%  
265 2% 9%  
266 2% 7%  
267 0.6% 6%  
268 0.6% 5%  
269 0.8% 4%  
270 0.4% 3%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.5%  
275 0.2% 1.2%  
276 0.2% 0.9%  
277 0.3% 0.8%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.2% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0.1% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.8%  
214 0.2% 99.6%  
215 0.1% 99.5%  
216 0.3% 99.4%  
217 0.5% 99.1%  
218 1.1% 98.6%  
219 1.4% 97%  
220 2% 96%  
221 0.8% 94%  
222 0.5% 94%  
223 2% 93%  
224 0.7% 91%  
225 2% 91%  
226 2% 89%  
227 2% 87%  
228 2% 86%  
229 3% 84%  
230 2% 81%  
231 0.9% 79%  
232 2% 78%  
233 3% 76%  
234 1.3% 74%  
235 2% 72%  
236 3% 70%  
237 2% 67%  
238 5% 64%  
239 2% 59% Median
240 4% 57%  
241 4% 53%  
242 5% 49%  
243 2% 44%  
244 3% 42%  
245 2% 39%  
246 2% 36%  
247 2% 34%  
248 2% 32%  
249 2% 30%  
250 2% 29%  
251 3% 27%  
252 2% 24%  
253 1.1% 22%  
254 2% 21%  
255 2% 19%  
256 2% 17%  
257 1.3% 15%  
258 3% 14%  
259 3% 11%  
260 0.8% 9%  
261 1.0% 8%  
262 0.9% 7%  
263 0.9% 6%  
264 0.9% 5%  
265 0.5% 4%  
266 0.9% 4%  
267 0.2% 3%  
268 0.4% 3%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.2% 2%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0.2% 1.2%  
274 0.2% 1.0%  
275 0.1% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.7%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.5% Last Result
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
208 0% 100%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.2% 99.7%  
214 0.2% 99.5%  
215 0.2% 99.3%  
216 0.6% 99.2%  
217 0.9% 98.6%  
218 1.5% 98%  
219 1.3% 96%  
220 1.3% 95%  
221 0.6% 94%  
222 0.8% 93%  
223 2% 92%  
224 1.2% 90%  
225 2% 89%  
226 2% 88%  
227 1.4% 85%  
228 1.2% 84%  
229 2% 83%  
230 2% 80%  
231 1.1% 78%  
232 2% 77%  
233 2% 74%  
234 2% 72%  
235 2% 70%  
236 3% 68%  
237 3% 65%  
238 5% 62%  
239 5% 57% Median
240 4% 52%  
241 3% 48%  
242 4% 45%  
243 1.1% 41%  
244 3% 40%  
245 3% 37%  
246 3% 34%  
247 0.9% 31%  
248 2% 30%  
249 2% 28%  
250 2% 26%  
251 1.4% 24%  
252 2% 22%  
253 1.1% 21%  
254 2% 20%  
255 2% 17%  
256 2% 16%  
257 2% 14%  
258 3% 12%  
259 1.3% 9%  
260 0.9% 8%  
261 1.1% 7%  
262 0.9% 6%  
263 0.8% 5%  
264 0.6% 4%  
265 0.4% 4%  
266 0.6% 3%  
267 0.3% 3%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.2% 1.5%  
272 0.3% 1.3%  
273 0.2% 1.0%  
274 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.3% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.4%  
185 0.2% 99.4%  
186 0.7% 99.2%  
187 0.9% 98.5%  
188 3% 98%  
189 0.8% 95%  
190 0.9% 94%  
191 1.1% 93%  
192 2% 92%  
193 2% 90%  
194 0.4% 89%  
195 4% 88%  
196 0.6% 84%  
197 3% 84%  
198 0.4% 81%  
199 3% 81%  
200 0.9% 77%  
201 3% 76%  
202 1.2% 73%  
203 2% 72%  
204 4% 70%  
205 2% 66%  
206 3% 64%  
207 5% 60% Median
208 5% 55%  
209 7% 50%  
210 3% 43%  
211 2% 41%  
212 1.3% 39%  
213 3% 38%  
214 2% 35%  
215 2% 32%  
216 2% 31%  
217 1.3% 29%  
218 3% 28%  
219 2% 24%  
220 2% 22%  
221 2% 20%  
222 0.8% 18%  
223 2% 17%  
224 2% 15%  
225 3% 13%  
226 2% 10%  
227 1.5% 8%  
228 1.2% 7%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.6% 5%  
231 0.5% 4%  
232 0.8% 4%  
233 0.5% 3%  
234 0.2% 2%  
235 0.3% 2%  
236 0.3% 2%  
237 0.6% 2%  
238 0.2% 1.1%  
239 0.2% 0.8%  
240 0.1% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.6%  
242 0% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.4%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.3% 99.6%  
184 0% 99.2%  
185 0.3% 99.2%  
186 1.2% 98.9%  
187 2% 98%  
188 3% 96%  
189 0.3% 93%  
190 0.4% 93%  
191 1.4% 92%  
192 2% 91%  
193 1.3% 89%  
194 1.1% 88%  
195 4% 87%  
196 0.8% 83%  
197 2% 82%  
198 0.8% 80%  
199 3% 79%  
200 2% 76%  
201 3% 74%  
202 2% 71%  
203 1.1% 70%  
204 4% 68%  
205 3% 64%  
206 4% 61%  
207 7% 57% Median
208 5% 49%  
209 4% 44%  
210 1.5% 40%  
211 0.7% 38%  
212 1.2% 38%  
213 3% 36%  
214 3% 33%  
215 1.2% 30%  
216 1.3% 28%  
217 2% 27%  
218 4% 25%  
219 3% 22%  
220 0.9% 19%  
221 2% 18%  
222 1.3% 17%  
223 2% 15%  
224 3% 13%  
225 3% 11%  
226 1.0% 8%  
227 1.1% 7%  
228 0.8% 6%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 0.8% 4%  
231 0.4% 3%  
232 0.7% 3%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.1% 2%  
235 0.3% 2%  
236 0.5% 2%  
237 0.4% 1.2%  
238 0.1% 0.8%  
239 0.1% 0.6%  
240 0.1% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0.1% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

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Calculations