Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 14–18 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 45.0% 43.1–46.9% 42.6–47.4% 42.2–47.8% 41.3–48.7%
Labour Party 41.0% 27.0% 25.4–28.8% 25.0–29.2% 24.6–29.7% 23.8–30.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.3–17.8% 14.0–18.2% 13.4–18.9%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 383 360–403 356–407 352–411 343–420
Labour Party 262 155 141–176 137–180 134–183 127–190
Liberal Democrats 12 38 33–45 32–47 31–48 30–50
Scottish National Party 35 47 39–51 36–52 34–53 33–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 7 4–10 4–11 4–11 3–13

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.1% 99.2%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.2% 98.8%  
350 0.3% 98.6%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.6% 97%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 0.8% 96%  
356 0.9% 95%  
357 1.4% 94%  
358 1.0% 93%  
359 0.8% 92%  
360 2% 91%  
361 0.9% 89%  
362 0.8% 89%  
363 2% 88%  
364 1.1% 85%  
365 2% 84%  
366 1.3% 83%  
367 2% 81%  
368 0.8% 79%  
369 3% 78%  
370 2% 76%  
371 3% 74%  
372 2% 71%  
373 1.0% 70%  
374 3% 69%  
375 2% 66%  
376 2% 64%  
377 2% 63%  
378 2% 61%  
379 2% 59%  
380 1.0% 57%  
381 2% 56%  
382 3% 53%  
383 1.1% 51% Median
384 2% 50%  
385 1.5% 48%  
386 2% 46%  
387 3% 44%  
388 3% 41%  
389 3% 39%  
390 3% 35%  
391 2% 32%  
392 4% 30%  
393 2% 26%  
394 3% 24%  
395 2% 21%  
396 1.0% 19%  
397 2% 18%  
398 0.7% 17%  
399 2% 16%  
400 1.3% 14%  
401 2% 13%  
402 1.2% 11%  
403 1.0% 10%  
404 1.4% 9%  
405 0.9% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.8% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.1%  
417 0.2% 1.0%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.8%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.7%  
123 0.1% 99.7%  
124 0% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0.1% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.5%  
128 0.2% 99.4%  
129 0.1% 99.2%  
130 0.4% 99.1%  
131 0.4% 98.7%  
132 0.3% 98%  
133 0.5% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 0.4% 97%  
136 0.8% 96%  
137 0.8% 96%  
138 2% 95%  
139 2% 93%  
140 1.2% 92%  
141 2% 91%  
142 2% 89%  
143 3% 87%  
144 1.5% 84%  
145 2% 83%  
146 3% 81%  
147 2% 78%  
148 3% 76%  
149 2% 73%  
150 4% 71%  
151 6% 67%  
152 3% 61%  
153 2% 58%  
154 4% 56%  
155 2% 52% Median
156 2% 50%  
157 2% 48%  
158 2% 46%  
159 2% 44%  
160 2% 43%  
161 2% 41%  
162 2% 39%  
163 1.3% 37%  
164 2% 35%  
165 2% 33%  
166 1.2% 31%  
167 2% 30%  
168 4% 28%  
169 2% 25%  
170 2% 23%  
171 2% 21%  
172 2% 19%  
173 1.4% 17%  
174 2% 16%  
175 3% 14%  
176 0.9% 11%  
177 2% 10%  
178 1.0% 8%  
179 0.8% 7%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 1.1% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.2% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.9%  
188 0.1% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.5%  
191 0% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.4% 100%  
30 1.2% 99.6%  
31 2% 98%  
32 3% 96%  
33 7% 93%  
34 5% 86%  
35 5% 81%  
36 9% 76%  
37 13% 67%  
38 9% 54% Median
39 5% 45%  
40 6% 40%  
41 5% 34%  
42 4% 29%  
43 5% 26%  
44 7% 20%  
45 3% 13%  
46 4% 10%  
47 2% 6%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 0.7% 98%  
35 1.1% 97% Last Result
36 0.9% 96%  
37 2% 95%  
38 0.6% 93%  
39 5% 92%  
40 2% 87%  
41 11% 85%  
42 6% 73%  
43 1.3% 68%  
44 0.5% 66%  
45 9% 66%  
46 0.4% 57%  
47 11% 57% Median
48 11% 45%  
49 0.2% 34%  
50 19% 34%  
51 8% 15%  
52 4% 7%  
53 0.9% 3%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 30% 98% Last Result
5 7% 68%  
6 3% 61%  
7 12% 58% Median
8 22% 46%  
9 8% 25%  
10 7% 17%  
11 8% 10%  
12 1.2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 435 100% 415–453 410–457 406–461 397–469
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 429 100% 408–446 405–450 400–453 392–461
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 422 100% 401–439 396–445 393–448 386–456
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 390 100% 367–410 362–414 359–419 349–428
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 383 100% 360–403 356–407 352–411 343–420
Conservative Party 317 383 100% 360–403 356–407 352–411 343–420
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 249 0% 229–272 225–276 221–280 212–289
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 248 0% 228–271 224–275 220–279 211–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 241 0% 221–264 217–269 212–272 203–282
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 209 0% 192–230 186–235 183–238 175–245
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 202 0% 184–224 180–228 175–232 167–239
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 202 0% 185–223 181–226 178–231 170–239
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 196 0% 178–216 174–221 170–225 162–234
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 163 0% 149–182 145–186 141–189 135–196
Labour Party 262 155 0% 141–176 137–180 134–183 127–190

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0% 99.8%  
393 0% 99.8%  
394 0% 99.7%  
395 0.1% 99.7%  
396 0% 99.6%  
397 0.1% 99.6%  
398 0.1% 99.5%  
399 0.1% 99.4%  
400 0.1% 99.3%  
401 0.1% 99.2%  
402 0.2% 99.1%  
403 0.3% 98.9%  
404 0.3% 98.6%  
405 0.4% 98%  
406 0.5% 98%  
407 0.4% 97%  
408 0.4% 97%  
409 0.8% 97%  
410 1.0% 96%  
411 0.9% 95%  
412 0.9% 94%  
413 1.3% 93%  
414 2% 92%  
415 2% 90%  
416 2% 88%  
417 2% 86%  
418 0.9% 84%  
419 3% 83%  
420 1.1% 80%  
421 2% 79%  
422 1.2% 77%  
423 3% 76%  
424 1.4% 73%  
425 2% 72%  
426 3% 69%  
427 1.1% 67%  
428 2% 66%  
429 2% 64%  
430 2% 62%  
431 2% 60%  
432 2% 58%  
433 3% 56%  
434 2% 54%  
435 2% 52%  
436 2% 50%  
437 3% 48% Median
438 2% 46%  
439 1.4% 44%  
440 2% 42%  
441 4% 41%  
442 1.5% 37%  
443 3% 35%  
444 2% 32%  
445 4% 30%  
446 3% 26%  
447 2% 24%  
448 3% 21%  
449 2% 19%  
450 2% 17%  
451 2% 15%  
452 2% 13%  
453 0.9% 11%  
454 1.3% 10%  
455 1.5% 9%  
456 2% 7%  
457 0.5% 5%  
458 0.9% 5%  
459 0.5% 4%  
460 0.7% 4%  
461 0.6% 3%  
462 0.2% 2%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.2% 2%  
465 0.4% 1.5%  
466 0.3% 1.1%  
467 0.1% 0.8%  
468 0.1% 0.7%  
469 0.1% 0.6%  
470 0.1% 0.5%  
471 0% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.4%  
473 0% 0.3%  
474 0% 0.3%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.2%  
478 0% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.8%  
387 0% 99.8%  
388 0% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.7%  
390 0% 99.6%  
391 0.1% 99.6%  
392 0% 99.5%  
393 0.1% 99.5%  
394 0.1% 99.4%  
395 0.2% 99.3%  
396 0.3% 99.1%  
397 0.1% 98.8%  
398 0.4% 98.7%  
399 0.2% 98%  
400 0.7% 98%  
401 0.6% 97%  
402 0.6% 97%  
403 0.6% 96%  
404 0.6% 96%  
405 1.3% 95%  
406 2% 94%  
407 1.3% 92%  
408 2% 91%  
409 1.1% 89%  
410 1.0% 88%  
411 3% 87%  
412 1.1% 84%  
413 4% 83%  
414 0.7% 79%  
415 2% 78%  
416 2% 77%  
417 3% 75%  
418 2% 72%  
419 2% 70%  
420 1.1% 68%  
421 3% 67%  
422 2% 64%  
423 2% 62%  
424 0.8% 60%  
425 3% 59%  
426 1.0% 56%  
427 3% 55%  
428 2% 52%  
429 2% 50%  
430 2% 48% Median
431 1.1% 46%  
432 3% 45%  
433 2% 42%  
434 2% 40%  
435 3% 38%  
436 4% 36%  
437 3% 32%  
438 3% 29%  
439 3% 26%  
440 2% 23%  
441 2% 22%  
442 3% 20%  
443 2% 16%  
444 3% 15%  
445 2% 12%  
446 2% 11%  
447 2% 9%  
448 1.3% 7%  
449 1.0% 6%  
450 0.9% 5%  
451 0.7% 4%  
452 0.7% 3%  
453 0.4% 3%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.3% 2%  
456 0.3% 2%  
457 0.2% 1.3%  
458 0.2% 1.1%  
459 0.3% 0.9%  
460 0.1% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0% 0.4%  
464 0% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0% 99.6%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.1% 99.5%  
387 0.1% 99.5%  
388 0.1% 99.4%  
389 0.2% 99.3%  
390 0.3% 99.1%  
391 0.5% 98.9%  
392 0.4% 98%  
393 0.8% 98%  
394 0.6% 97%  
395 0.8% 97%  
396 0.8% 96%  
397 1.1% 95%  
398 1.0% 94%  
399 1.1% 93%  
400 1.2% 92%  
401 2% 91%  
402 1.4% 89%  
403 2% 87%  
404 1.4% 86%  
405 2% 84%  
406 2% 83%  
407 3% 81%  
408 1.4% 78%  
409 2% 77%  
410 2% 75%  
411 1.5% 72%  
412 1.2% 71%  
413 2% 70%  
414 1.4% 68%  
415 3% 67%  
416 1.4% 64%  
417 1.5% 62%  
418 3% 61%  
419 2% 58%  
420 2% 56%  
421 2% 54% Median
422 2% 52%  
423 2% 49%  
424 3% 48%  
425 3% 45%  
426 3% 41%  
427 4% 38%  
428 2% 34%  
429 2% 32%  
430 3% 30%  
431 3% 27%  
432 2% 24%  
433 1.1% 22%  
434 3% 20%  
435 2% 18%  
436 2% 16%  
437 1.2% 14%  
438 2% 12%  
439 1.3% 11%  
440 1.0% 10%  
441 1.1% 9%  
442 1.2% 7%  
443 0.7% 6%  
444 0.4% 6%  
445 1.2% 5%  
446 0.8% 4%  
447 0.6% 3%  
448 0.4% 3%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.3% 2%  
451 0.3% 1.5%  
452 0.3% 1.2%  
453 0.1% 0.9%  
454 0.1% 0.8%  
455 0.2% 0.7%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0% 99.6%  
348 0.1% 99.6%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.1% 99.4%  
351 0.1% 99.3%  
352 0.1% 99.2%  
353 0.2% 99.2%  
354 0.1% 99.0%  
355 0.3% 98.9%  
356 0.4% 98.5%  
357 0.3% 98%  
358 0.2% 98%  
359 0.9% 98%  
360 0.8% 97%  
361 0.7% 96%  
362 0.7% 95%  
363 0.6% 95%  
364 1.2% 94%  
365 1.2% 93%  
366 1.2% 91%  
367 1.3% 90%  
368 0.9% 89%  
369 2% 88%  
370 1.2% 86%  
371 1.2% 85%  
372 1.1% 83%  
373 2% 82%  
374 1.3% 80%  
375 3% 79%  
376 2% 76%  
377 0.8% 74%  
378 2% 73%  
379 2% 71%  
380 1.0% 69%  
381 1.1% 68%  
382 2% 67%  
383 2% 64%  
384 2% 63%  
385 2% 61%  
386 2% 58%  
387 2% 56%  
388 0.9% 54%  
389 2% 53%  
390 2% 51% Median
391 2% 49%  
392 2% 48%  
393 1.4% 46%  
394 4% 45%  
395 2% 40%  
396 4% 38%  
397 2% 34%  
398 2% 31%  
399 2% 30%  
400 3% 28%  
401 1.3% 25%  
402 2% 24%  
403 3% 21%  
404 2% 19%  
405 0.6% 17%  
406 1.1% 16%  
407 1.2% 15%  
408 2% 14%  
409 2% 12%  
410 1.4% 10%  
411 1.2% 9%  
412 1.0% 8%  
413 0.7% 7%  
414 1.1% 6%  
415 0.8% 5%  
416 0.5% 4%  
417 0.4% 4%  
418 0.4% 3%  
419 0.8% 3%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.1% 2%  
423 0.3% 1.5%  
424 0.3% 1.2%  
425 0.2% 1.0%  
426 0.1% 0.7%  
427 0.1% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.4%  
431 0.1% 0.3%  
432 0% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.1% 99.2%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.2% 98.8%  
350 0.3% 98.6%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.6% 97%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 0.8% 96%  
356 0.9% 95%  
357 1.4% 94%  
358 1.0% 93%  
359 0.8% 92%  
360 2% 91%  
361 0.9% 89%  
362 0.8% 89%  
363 2% 88%  
364 1.1% 85%  
365 2% 84%  
366 1.3% 83%  
367 2% 81%  
368 0.8% 79%  
369 3% 78%  
370 2% 76%  
371 3% 74%  
372 2% 71%  
373 1.0% 70%  
374 3% 69%  
375 2% 66%  
376 2% 64%  
377 2% 63%  
378 2% 61%  
379 2% 59%  
380 1.0% 57%  
381 2% 56%  
382 3% 53%  
383 1.1% 51% Median
384 2% 50%  
385 1.5% 48%  
386 2% 46%  
387 3% 44%  
388 3% 41%  
389 3% 39%  
390 3% 35%  
391 2% 32%  
392 4% 30%  
393 2% 26%  
394 3% 24%  
395 2% 21%  
396 1.0% 19%  
397 2% 18%  
398 0.7% 17%  
399 2% 16%  
400 1.3% 14%  
401 2% 13%  
402 1.2% 11%  
403 1.0% 10%  
404 1.4% 9%  
405 0.9% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.8% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.1%  
417 0.2% 1.0%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.4%  
346 0.1% 99.3%  
347 0.1% 99.2%  
348 0.2% 99.0%  
349 0.2% 98.8%  
350 0.3% 98.6%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.6% 97%  
354 0.8% 97%  
355 0.8% 96%  
356 0.9% 95%  
357 1.4% 94%  
358 1.0% 93%  
359 0.8% 92%  
360 2% 91%  
361 0.9% 89%  
362 0.8% 89%  
363 2% 88%  
364 1.1% 85%  
365 2% 84%  
366 1.3% 83%  
367 2% 81%  
368 0.8% 79%  
369 3% 78%  
370 2% 76%  
371 3% 74%  
372 2% 71%  
373 1.0% 70%  
374 3% 69%  
375 2% 66%  
376 2% 64%  
377 2% 63%  
378 2% 61%  
379 2% 59%  
380 1.0% 57%  
381 2% 56%  
382 3% 53%  
383 1.1% 51% Median
384 2% 50%  
385 1.5% 48%  
386 2% 46%  
387 3% 44%  
388 3% 41%  
389 3% 39%  
390 3% 35%  
391 2% 32%  
392 4% 30%  
393 2% 26%  
394 3% 24%  
395 2% 21%  
396 1.0% 19%  
397 2% 18%  
398 0.7% 17%  
399 2% 16%  
400 1.3% 14%  
401 2% 13%  
402 1.2% 11%  
403 1.0% 10%  
404 1.4% 9%  
405 0.9% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.8% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.1%  
417 0.2% 1.0%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.8%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.1% 99.7%  
210 0% 99.7%  
211 0.1% 99.6%  
212 0.1% 99.5%  
213 0.1% 99.4%  
214 0.1% 99.4%  
215 0.2% 99.2%  
216 0.1% 99.0%  
217 0.2% 98.9%  
218 0.3% 98.6%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.4% 97%  
223 0.5% 97%  
224 0.6% 96%  
225 0.8% 96%  
226 2% 95%  
227 0.9% 93%  
228 1.4% 92%  
229 1.0% 91%  
230 1.2% 90%  
231 2% 89%  
232 1.3% 87%  
233 2% 86%  
234 0.7% 84%  
235 2% 83%  
236 1.0% 82%  
237 2% 81%  
238 3% 79%  
239 2% 76%  
240 4% 74%  
241 2% 70%  
242 3% 68%  
243 3% 65%  
244 3% 61%  
245 3% 59%  
246 2% 56%  
247 1.5% 54%  
248 2% 52% Median
249 1.1% 50%  
250 3% 49%  
251 2% 47%  
252 1.0% 44%  
253 2% 43%  
254 2% 41%  
255 2% 39%  
256 2% 37%  
257 2% 36%  
258 3% 34%  
259 1.0% 31%  
260 2% 30%  
261 3% 29%  
262 2% 26%  
263 3% 24%  
264 0.8% 22%  
265 2% 21%  
266 1.3% 19%  
267 2% 17%  
268 1.1% 16%  
269 2% 15%  
270 0.8% 12%  
271 0.9% 11%  
272 2% 11%  
273 0.8% 9%  
274 1.0% 8%  
275 1.4% 7%  
276 0.9% 6%  
277 0.8% 5%  
278 0.8% 4%  
279 0.6% 3%  
280 0.4% 3%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.2% 1.4%  
284 0.2% 1.2%  
285 0.1% 1.0%  
286 0.1% 0.8%  
287 0.1% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.5%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0.1% 99.6%  
211 0.1% 99.5%  
212 0.1% 99.4%  
213 0.1% 99.4%  
214 0.2% 99.2%  
215 0.1% 99.0%  
216 0.2% 98.9%  
217 0.3% 98.6%  
218 0.3% 98%  
219 0.4% 98%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0.4% 97%  
222 0.5% 97%  
223 0.6% 96%  
224 0.8% 96%  
225 2% 95%  
226 0.9% 93%  
227 1.4% 92%  
228 1.0% 91%  
229 1.2% 90%  
230 2% 89%  
231 1.3% 87%  
232 2% 86%  
233 0.7% 84%  
234 2% 83%  
235 1.0% 82%  
236 2% 81%  
237 3% 79%  
238 2% 76%  
239 4% 74%  
240 2% 70%  
241 3% 68%  
242 3% 65%  
243 3% 61%  
244 3% 59%  
245 2% 56%  
246 1.5% 54%  
247 2% 52% Median
248 1.1% 50%  
249 3% 49%  
250 2% 46%  
251 1.0% 44%  
252 2% 43%  
253 2% 41%  
254 2% 39%  
255 2% 37%  
256 2% 36%  
257 3% 34%  
258 1.0% 31%  
259 2% 30%  
260 3% 29%  
261 2% 26%  
262 3% 24%  
263 0.8% 22%  
264 2% 21%  
265 1.3% 19%  
266 2% 17%  
267 1.1% 16%  
268 2% 15%  
269 0.8% 12%  
270 0.9% 11%  
271 2% 11%  
272 0.8% 9%  
273 1.0% 8%  
274 1.4% 7%  
275 0.9% 6%  
276 0.8% 5%  
277 0.8% 4%  
278 0.6% 3%  
279 0.4% 3%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.3% 2%  
282 0.2% 1.4%  
283 0.2% 1.2%  
284 0.1% 1.0%  
285 0.1% 0.8%  
286 0.1% 0.7%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.1% 99.5%  
204 0.1% 99.5%  
205 0.1% 99.4%  
206 0.2% 99.3%  
207 0.3% 99.0%  
208 0.3% 98.8%  
209 0.1% 98.5%  
210 0.1% 98%  
211 0.4% 98%  
212 0.8% 98%  
213 0.4% 97%  
214 0.4% 97%  
215 0.5% 96%  
216 0.8% 96%  
217 1.1% 95%  
218 0.7% 94%  
219 1.0% 93%  
220 1.2% 92%  
221 1.4% 91%  
222 2% 90%  
223 2% 88%  
224 1.2% 86%  
225 1.0% 85%  
226 0.6% 84%  
227 2% 83%  
228 3% 81%  
229 2% 79%  
230 1.3% 76%  
231 3% 75%  
232 2% 72%  
233 2% 70%  
234 2% 69%  
235 4% 66%  
236 2% 62%  
237 4% 60%  
238 1.4% 55%  
239 2% 54%  
240 2% 52% Median
241 2% 51%  
242 2% 49%  
243 0.9% 47%  
244 2% 46%  
245 2% 44%  
246 2% 42%  
247 2% 39%  
248 2% 37%  
249 2% 36%  
250 1.1% 33%  
251 1.0% 32%  
252 2% 31%  
253 2% 29%  
254 0.8% 27%  
255 2% 26%  
256 3% 24%  
257 1.3% 21%  
258 2% 20%  
259 1.1% 18%  
260 1.2% 17%  
261 1.2% 15%  
262 2% 14%  
263 0.9% 12%  
264 1.3% 11%  
265 1.2% 10%  
266 1.2% 9%  
267 1.2% 7%  
268 0.6% 6%  
269 0.7% 5%  
270 0.7% 5%  
271 0.8% 4%  
272 0.9% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.3% 2%  
275 0.4% 2%  
276 0.3% 1.5%  
277 0.1% 1.1%  
278 0.2% 1.0%  
279 0.1% 0.8%  
280 0.1% 0.8%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.5%  
284 0% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.8%  
169 0% 99.8%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0.1% 99.8%  
172 0% 99.7%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.5%  
176 0.2% 99.4%  
177 0.1% 99.3%  
178 0.1% 99.2%  
179 0.3% 99.1%  
180 0.3% 98.8%  
181 0.3% 98.5%  
182 0.4% 98%  
183 0.4% 98%  
184 0.6% 97%  
185 0.8% 97%  
186 1.2% 96%  
187 0.4% 95%  
188 0.7% 94%  
189 1.2% 94%  
190 1.1% 93%  
191 1.0% 91%  
192 1.3% 90%  
193 2% 89%  
194 1.2% 88%  
195 2% 86%  
196 2% 84%  
197 3% 82%  
198 1.1% 80%  
199 2% 78%  
200 3% 76%  
201 3% 73%  
202 2% 70%  
203 2% 68%  
204 4% 66%  
205 3% 62%  
206 3% 59%  
207 3% 55%  
208 2% 52%  
209 2% 51% Median
210 2% 48%  
211 2% 46%  
212 2% 44%  
213 3% 42%  
214 1.5% 39%  
215 1.4% 38%  
216 3% 36%  
217 1.4% 33%  
218 2% 32%  
219 1.2% 30%  
220 1.5% 29%  
221 2% 28%  
222 2% 25%  
223 1.4% 23%  
224 3% 22%  
225 2% 19%  
226 2% 17%  
227 1.4% 16%  
228 2% 14%  
229 1.4% 13%  
230 2% 11%  
231 1.2% 9%  
232 1.1% 8%  
233 1.0% 7%  
234 1.1% 6%  
235 0.8% 5%  
236 0.8% 4%  
237 0.6% 3%  
238 0.8% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.5% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.1%  
242 0.2% 0.9%  
243 0.1% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.5%  
247 0% 0.4%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.7%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.1% 99.7%  
166 0.1% 99.6%  
167 0.1% 99.5%  
168 0.1% 99.5%  
169 0.2% 99.4%  
170 0.2% 99.2%  
171 0.2% 99.0%  
172 0.3% 98.9%  
173 0.2% 98.6%  
174 0.5% 98%  
175 0.4% 98%  
176 0.4% 97%  
177 0.5% 97%  
178 0.7% 96%  
179 0.6% 96%  
180 0.8% 95%  
181 1.2% 94%  
182 0.9% 93%  
183 1.1% 92%  
184 1.4% 91%  
185 1.2% 90%  
186 2% 89%  
187 1.3% 87%  
188 2% 85%  
189 2% 84%  
190 2% 82%  
191 2% 80%  
192 3% 77%  
193 2% 75%  
194 2% 72%  
195 3% 71%  
196 4% 67%  
197 1.4% 63%  
198 2% 62%  
199 3% 60%  
200 2% 57%  
201 3% 55%  
202 3% 52% Median
203 2% 48%  
204 2% 46%  
205 3% 44%  
206 1.3% 42%  
207 1.4% 40%  
208 2% 39%  
209 2% 37%  
210 2% 35%  
211 1.2% 33%  
212 3% 32%  
213 1.1% 29%  
214 1.4% 28%  
215 1.3% 26%  
216 2% 25%  
217 2% 23%  
218 3% 21%  
219 1.4% 18%  
220 1.2% 16%  
221 1.4% 15%  
222 1.5% 14%  
223 1.4% 12%  
224 1.5% 11%  
225 2% 9%  
226 0.8% 7%  
227 1.1% 6%  
228 0.7% 5%  
229 0.6% 5%  
230 1.0% 4%  
231 0.5% 3%  
232 0.6% 3%  
233 0.5% 2%  
234 0.4% 2%  
235 0.2% 1.2%  
236 0.2% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.7%  
238 0.1% 0.7%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.4%  
242 0.1% 0.3%  
243 0% 0.3%  
244 0% 0.3%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.8%  
162 0% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0% 99.8%  
166 0.1% 99.8%  
167 0% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.7%  
169 0.1% 99.6%  
170 0.1% 99.5%  
171 0.1% 99.4%  
172 0.3% 99.4%  
173 0.2% 99.1%  
174 0.2% 98.9%  
175 0.3% 98.7%  
176 0.3% 98%  
177 0.4% 98%  
178 0.4% 98%  
179 0.7% 97%  
180 0.7% 97%  
181 0.9% 96%  
182 1.0% 95%  
183 1.3% 94%  
184 2% 93%  
185 2% 91%  
186 2% 89%  
187 3% 88%  
188 2% 85%  
189 3% 84%  
190 2% 80%  
191 2% 78%  
192 3% 77%  
193 3% 74%  
194 3% 71%  
195 4% 68%  
196 3% 64%  
197 2% 62%  
198 2% 60%  
199 3% 58%  
200 1.1% 55% Median
201 2% 54%  
202 2% 52%  
203 2% 50%  
204 3% 48%  
205 1.0% 45%  
206 3% 44%  
207 0.8% 41%  
208 2% 40%  
209 2% 38%  
210 3% 36%  
211 1.1% 33%  
212 2% 32%  
213 2% 30%  
214 3% 28%  
215 2% 25%  
216 2% 23%  
217 0.7% 22%  
218 4% 21%  
219 1.1% 17%  
220 3% 16%  
221 1.0% 13%  
222 1.1% 12%  
223 2% 11%  
224 1.3% 9%  
225 2% 8%  
226 1.3% 6%  
227 0.6% 5%  
228 0.6% 4%  
229 0.6% 4%  
230 0.6% 3%  
231 0.7% 3%  
232 0.2% 2%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.1% 1.3%  
235 0.3% 1.2%  
236 0.2% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.7%  
238 0.1% 0.6%  
239 0% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.5%  
241 0% 0.4%  
242 0.1% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.3%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.8%  
154 0% 99.8%  
155 0% 99.8%  
156 0% 99.8%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0% 99.7%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0% 99.6%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.1% 99.5%  
163 0.1% 99.4%  
164 0.1% 99.3%  
165 0.3% 99.2%  
166 0.4% 98.9%  
167 0.2% 98.5%  
168 0.3% 98%  
169 0.2% 98%  
170 0.6% 98%  
171 0.7% 97%  
172 0.5% 96%  
173 0.9% 96%  
174 0.5% 95%  
175 2% 95%  
176 1.5% 93%  
177 1.3% 91%  
178 0.9% 90%  
179 2% 89%  
180 2% 87%  
181 2% 85%  
182 2% 83%  
183 3% 81%  
184 2% 79%  
185 3% 76%  
186 4% 74%  
187 2% 70%  
188 3% 68%  
189 1.5% 65%  
190 4% 63%  
191 2% 59%  
192 1.4% 58%  
193 2% 56% Median
194 3% 54%  
195 2% 52%  
196 2% 50%  
197 2% 48%  
198 3% 46%  
199 2% 44%  
200 2% 42%  
201 2% 40%  
202 2% 38%  
203 2% 36%  
204 1.1% 34%  
205 3% 33%  
206 2% 31%  
207 1.4% 28%  
208 3% 27%  
209 1.2% 24%  
210 2% 23%  
211 1.1% 21%  
212 3% 20%  
213 0.9% 17%  
214 2% 16%  
215 2% 14%  
216 2% 12%  
217 2% 10%  
218 1.3% 8%  
219 0.9% 7%  
220 0.9% 6%  
221 1.0% 5%  
222 0.8% 4%  
223 0.4% 3%  
224 0.4% 3%  
225 0.5% 3%  
226 0.4% 2%  
227 0.3% 2%  
228 0.3% 1.4%  
229 0.2% 1.1%  
230 0.1% 0.9%  
231 0.1% 0.8%  
232 0.1% 0.7%  
233 0.1% 0.6%  
234 0.1% 0.5%  
235 0% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.7%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.6%  
134 0.1% 99.6%  
135 0.1% 99.5%  
136 0.1% 99.4%  
137 0.1% 99.3%  
138 0.4% 99.2%  
139 0.3% 98.7%  
140 0.4% 98%  
141 0.6% 98%  
142 0.6% 97%  
143 0.7% 97%  
144 0.5% 96%  
145 1.3% 96%  
146 1.0% 94%  
147 1.5% 93%  
148 1.4% 92%  
149 3% 90%  
150 3% 87%  
151 2% 85%  
152 2% 82%  
153 1.2% 80%  
154 2% 79%  
155 3% 77%  
156 3% 74%  
157 4% 71%  
158 6% 67%  
159 6% 61%  
160 3% 55%  
161 0.7% 53%  
162 1.3% 52% Median
163 1.2% 51%  
164 3% 49%  
165 3% 46%  
166 2% 43%  
167 1.4% 41%  
168 2% 40%  
169 1.3% 38%  
170 2% 37%  
171 1.4% 35%  
172 3% 33%  
173 2% 31%  
174 3% 29%  
175 2% 26%  
176 2% 24%  
177 2% 22%  
178 2% 20%  
179 2% 18%  
180 2% 16%  
181 3% 14%  
182 2% 12%  
183 2% 10%  
184 1.2% 8%  
185 1.2% 7%  
186 0.7% 6%  
187 0.8% 5%  
188 1.2% 4%  
189 1.1% 3%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.2% 1.3%  
192 0.1% 1.0%  
193 0.2% 1.0%  
194 0.1% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0% 0.3%  
200 0% 0.3%  
201 0% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.2%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.8%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.7%  
123 0.1% 99.7%  
124 0% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.6%  
126 0.1% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.5%  
128 0.2% 99.4%  
129 0.1% 99.2%  
130 0.4% 99.1%  
131 0.4% 98.7%  
132 0.3% 98%  
133 0.5% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 0.4% 97%  
136 0.8% 96%  
137 0.8% 96%  
138 2% 95%  
139 2% 93%  
140 1.2% 92%  
141 2% 91%  
142 2% 89%  
143 3% 87%  
144 1.5% 84%  
145 2% 83%  
146 3% 81%  
147 2% 78%  
148 3% 76%  
149 2% 73%  
150 4% 71%  
151 6% 67%  
152 3% 61%  
153 2% 58%  
154 4% 56%  
155 2% 52% Median
156 2% 50%  
157 2% 48%  
158 2% 46%  
159 2% 44%  
160 2% 43%  
161 2% 41%  
162 2% 39%  
163 1.3% 37%  
164 2% 35%  
165 2% 33%  
166 1.2% 31%  
167 2% 30%  
168 4% 28%  
169 2% 25%  
170 2% 23%  
171 2% 21%  
172 2% 19%  
173 1.4% 17%  
174 2% 16%  
175 3% 14%  
176 0.9% 11%  
177 2% 10%  
178 1.0% 8%  
179 0.8% 7%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 1.1% 4%  
182 0.6% 3%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.5% 2%  
186 0.2% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.9%  
188 0.1% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.5%  
191 0% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0% 0.3%  
195 0% 0.3%  
196 0% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations