Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 14–18 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
43.4% |
45.0% |
43.1–46.9% |
42.6–47.4% |
42.2–47.8% |
41.3–48.7% |
Labour Party |
41.0% |
27.0% |
25.4–28.8% |
25.0–29.2% |
24.6–29.7% |
23.8–30.5% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.6% |
16.0% |
14.7–17.4% |
14.3–17.8% |
14.0–18.2% |
13.4–18.9% |
Scottish National Party |
3.1% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.1% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.7–5.7% |
Green Party |
1.7% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.1% |
1.9–4.5% |
Brexit Party |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.5–2.9% |
1.4–3.0% |
1.2–3.4% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.5% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.8% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
317 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
351 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
352 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
354 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
355 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
356 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
357 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
358 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
359 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
360 |
2% |
91% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
362 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
363 |
2% |
88% |
|
364 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
365 |
2% |
84% |
|
366 |
1.3% |
83% |
|
367 |
2% |
81% |
|
368 |
0.8% |
79% |
|
369 |
3% |
78% |
|
370 |
2% |
76% |
|
371 |
3% |
74% |
|
372 |
2% |
71% |
|
373 |
1.0% |
70% |
|
374 |
3% |
69% |
|
375 |
2% |
66% |
|
376 |
2% |
64% |
|
377 |
2% |
63% |
|
378 |
2% |
61% |
|
379 |
2% |
59% |
|
380 |
1.0% |
57% |
|
381 |
2% |
56% |
|
382 |
3% |
53% |
|
383 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
384 |
2% |
50% |
|
385 |
1.5% |
48% |
|
386 |
2% |
46% |
|
387 |
3% |
44% |
|
388 |
3% |
41% |
|
389 |
3% |
39% |
|
390 |
3% |
35% |
|
391 |
2% |
32% |
|
392 |
4% |
30% |
|
393 |
2% |
26% |
|
394 |
3% |
24% |
|
395 |
2% |
21% |
|
396 |
1.0% |
19% |
|
397 |
2% |
18% |
|
398 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
399 |
2% |
16% |
|
400 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
401 |
2% |
13% |
|
402 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
403 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
404 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
405 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
406 |
2% |
7% |
|
407 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
408 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
409 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
410 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
411 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
412 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
413 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
414 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
415 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
419 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
422 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
425 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
426 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
427 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
428 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
429 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
430 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
431 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
432 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
433 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
116 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
117 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
123 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
126 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
128 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
130 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
131 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
132 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
133 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
136 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
137 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
138 |
2% |
95% |
|
139 |
2% |
93% |
|
140 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
141 |
2% |
91% |
|
142 |
2% |
89% |
|
143 |
3% |
87% |
|
144 |
1.5% |
84% |
|
145 |
2% |
83% |
|
146 |
3% |
81% |
|
147 |
2% |
78% |
|
148 |
3% |
76% |
|
149 |
2% |
73% |
|
150 |
4% |
71% |
|
151 |
6% |
67% |
|
152 |
3% |
61% |
|
153 |
2% |
58% |
|
154 |
4% |
56% |
|
155 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
156 |
2% |
50% |
|
157 |
2% |
48% |
|
158 |
2% |
46% |
|
159 |
2% |
44% |
|
160 |
2% |
43% |
|
161 |
2% |
41% |
|
162 |
2% |
39% |
|
163 |
1.3% |
37% |
|
164 |
2% |
35% |
|
165 |
2% |
33% |
|
166 |
1.2% |
31% |
|
167 |
2% |
30% |
|
168 |
4% |
28% |
|
169 |
2% |
25% |
|
170 |
2% |
23% |
|
171 |
2% |
21% |
|
172 |
2% |
19% |
|
173 |
1.4% |
17% |
|
174 |
2% |
16% |
|
175 |
3% |
14% |
|
176 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
177 |
2% |
10% |
|
178 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
179 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
180 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
181 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
182 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
183 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
184 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
185 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
186 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
187 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
188 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
191 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
196 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
197 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
198 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
199 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
200 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
201 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
202 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
203 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
100% |
|
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
31 |
2% |
98% |
|
32 |
3% |
96% |
|
33 |
7% |
93% |
|
34 |
5% |
86% |
|
35 |
5% |
81% |
|
36 |
9% |
76% |
|
37 |
13% |
67% |
|
38 |
9% |
54% |
Median |
39 |
5% |
45% |
|
40 |
6% |
40% |
|
41 |
5% |
34% |
|
42 |
4% |
29% |
|
43 |
5% |
26% |
|
44 |
7% |
20% |
|
45 |
3% |
13% |
|
46 |
4% |
10% |
|
47 |
2% |
6% |
|
48 |
2% |
5% |
|
49 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
33 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
97% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
37 |
2% |
95% |
|
38 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
39 |
5% |
92% |
|
40 |
2% |
87% |
|
41 |
11% |
85% |
|
42 |
6% |
73% |
|
43 |
1.3% |
68% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
66% |
|
45 |
9% |
66% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
57% |
|
47 |
11% |
57% |
Median |
48 |
11% |
45% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
34% |
|
50 |
19% |
34% |
|
51 |
8% |
15% |
|
52 |
4% |
7% |
|
53 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
54 |
2% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
30% |
98% |
Last Result |
5 |
7% |
68% |
|
6 |
3% |
61% |
|
7 |
12% |
58% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
46% |
|
9 |
8% |
25% |
|
10 |
7% |
17% |
|
11 |
8% |
10% |
|
12 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
435 |
100% |
415–453 |
410–457 |
406–461 |
397–469 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
429 |
100% |
408–446 |
405–450 |
400–453 |
392–461 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
422 |
100% |
401–439 |
396–445 |
393–448 |
386–456 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
390 |
100% |
367–410 |
362–414 |
359–419 |
349–428 |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party |
317 |
383 |
100% |
360–403 |
356–407 |
352–411 |
343–420 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
383 |
100% |
360–403 |
356–407 |
352–411 |
343–420 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru |
314 |
249 |
0% |
229–272 |
225–276 |
221–280 |
212–289 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
248 |
0% |
228–271 |
224–275 |
220–279 |
211–288 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
241 |
0% |
221–264 |
217–269 |
212–272 |
203–282 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
209 |
0% |
192–230 |
186–235 |
183–238 |
175–245 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
202 |
0% |
184–224 |
180–228 |
175–232 |
167–239 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
202 |
0% |
185–223 |
181–226 |
178–231 |
170–239 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
196 |
0% |
178–216 |
174–221 |
170–225 |
162–234 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
163 |
0% |
149–182 |
145–186 |
141–189 |
135–196 |
Labour Party |
262 |
155 |
0% |
141–176 |
137–180 |
134–183 |
127–190 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
356 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
100% |
|
385 |
0% |
100% |
|
386 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
387 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
388 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
389 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
390 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
391 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
392 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
393 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
394 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
396 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
398 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
399 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
402 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
403 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
404 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
405 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
406 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
407 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
408 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
409 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
410 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
411 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
412 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
413 |
1.3% |
93% |
|
414 |
2% |
92% |
|
415 |
2% |
90% |
|
416 |
2% |
88% |
|
417 |
2% |
86% |
|
418 |
0.9% |
84% |
|
419 |
3% |
83% |
|
420 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
421 |
2% |
79% |
|
422 |
1.2% |
77% |
|
423 |
3% |
76% |
|
424 |
1.4% |
73% |
|
425 |
2% |
72% |
|
426 |
3% |
69% |
|
427 |
1.1% |
67% |
|
428 |
2% |
66% |
|
429 |
2% |
64% |
|
430 |
2% |
62% |
|
431 |
2% |
60% |
|
432 |
2% |
58% |
|
433 |
3% |
56% |
|
434 |
2% |
54% |
|
435 |
2% |
52% |
|
436 |
2% |
50% |
|
437 |
3% |
48% |
Median |
438 |
2% |
46% |
|
439 |
1.4% |
44% |
|
440 |
2% |
42% |
|
441 |
4% |
41% |
|
442 |
1.5% |
37% |
|
443 |
3% |
35% |
|
444 |
2% |
32% |
|
445 |
4% |
30% |
|
446 |
3% |
26% |
|
447 |
2% |
24% |
|
448 |
3% |
21% |
|
449 |
2% |
19% |
|
450 |
2% |
17% |
|
451 |
2% |
15% |
|
452 |
2% |
13% |
|
453 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
454 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
455 |
1.5% |
9% |
|
456 |
2% |
7% |
|
457 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
458 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
459 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
460 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
461 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
462 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
463 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
464 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
465 |
0.4% |
1.5% |
|
466 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
467 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
468 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
469 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
470 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
471 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
472 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
473 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
474 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
475 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
476 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
477 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
478 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
479 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
480 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
481 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
482 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
483 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
484 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
485 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
486 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
487 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
352 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
381 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
382 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
383 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
384 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
386 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
387 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
388 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
390 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
392 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
395 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
396 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
398 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
399 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
400 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
401 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
402 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
403 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
404 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
405 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
406 |
2% |
94% |
|
407 |
1.3% |
92% |
|
408 |
2% |
91% |
|
409 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
410 |
1.0% |
88% |
|
411 |
3% |
87% |
|
412 |
1.1% |
84% |
|
413 |
4% |
83% |
|
414 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
415 |
2% |
78% |
|
416 |
2% |
77% |
|
417 |
3% |
75% |
|
418 |
2% |
72% |
|
419 |
2% |
70% |
|
420 |
1.1% |
68% |
|
421 |
3% |
67% |
|
422 |
2% |
64% |
|
423 |
2% |
62% |
|
424 |
0.8% |
60% |
|
425 |
3% |
59% |
|
426 |
1.0% |
56% |
|
427 |
3% |
55% |
|
428 |
2% |
52% |
|
429 |
2% |
50% |
|
430 |
2% |
48% |
Median |
431 |
1.1% |
46% |
|
432 |
3% |
45% |
|
433 |
2% |
42% |
|
434 |
2% |
40% |
|
435 |
3% |
38% |
|
436 |
4% |
36% |
|
437 |
3% |
32% |
|
438 |
3% |
29% |
|
439 |
3% |
26% |
|
440 |
2% |
23% |
|
441 |
2% |
22% |
|
442 |
3% |
20% |
|
443 |
2% |
16% |
|
444 |
3% |
15% |
|
445 |
2% |
12% |
|
446 |
2% |
11% |
|
447 |
2% |
9% |
|
448 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
449 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
450 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
451 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
452 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
453 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
454 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
455 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
456 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
457 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
458 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
459 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
460 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
461 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
462 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
463 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
464 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
465 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
466 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
467 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
468 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
469 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
470 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
471 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
472 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
473 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
474 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
475 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
476 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
477 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
478 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
479 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
329 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
375 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
376 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
377 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
378 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
379 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
380 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
382 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
383 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
384 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
389 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
390 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
391 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
392 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
393 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
394 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
395 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
396 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
397 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
398 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
399 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
400 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
401 |
2% |
91% |
|
402 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
403 |
2% |
87% |
|
404 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
405 |
2% |
84% |
|
406 |
2% |
83% |
|
407 |
3% |
81% |
|
408 |
1.4% |
78% |
|
409 |
2% |
77% |
|
410 |
2% |
75% |
|
411 |
1.5% |
72% |
|
412 |
1.2% |
71% |
|
413 |
2% |
70% |
|
414 |
1.4% |
68% |
|
415 |
3% |
67% |
|
416 |
1.4% |
64% |
|
417 |
1.5% |
62% |
|
418 |
3% |
61% |
|
419 |
2% |
58% |
|
420 |
2% |
56% |
|
421 |
2% |
54% |
Median |
422 |
2% |
52% |
|
423 |
2% |
49% |
|
424 |
3% |
48% |
|
425 |
3% |
45% |
|
426 |
3% |
41% |
|
427 |
4% |
38% |
|
428 |
2% |
34% |
|
429 |
2% |
32% |
|
430 |
3% |
30% |
|
431 |
3% |
27% |
|
432 |
2% |
24% |
|
433 |
1.1% |
22% |
|
434 |
3% |
20% |
|
435 |
2% |
18% |
|
436 |
2% |
16% |
|
437 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
438 |
2% |
12% |
|
439 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
440 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
441 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
442 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
443 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
444 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
445 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
446 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
447 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
448 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
449 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
450 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
451 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
452 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
453 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
454 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
455 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
456 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
457 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
458 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
459 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
460 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
461 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
462 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
463 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
464 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
465 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
466 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
467 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
468 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
469 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
470 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
471 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
472 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
473 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
321 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
339 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
340 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
341 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
342 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
343 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
344 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
345 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
347 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
352 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
353 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
355 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
98.5% |
|
357 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
359 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
360 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
361 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
362 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
363 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
364 |
1.2% |
94% |
|
365 |
1.2% |
93% |
|
366 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
367 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
368 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
369 |
2% |
88% |
|
370 |
1.2% |
86% |
|
371 |
1.2% |
85% |
|
372 |
1.1% |
83% |
|
373 |
2% |
82% |
|
374 |
1.3% |
80% |
|
375 |
3% |
79% |
|
376 |
2% |
76% |
|
377 |
0.8% |
74% |
|
378 |
2% |
73% |
|
379 |
2% |
71% |
|
380 |
1.0% |
69% |
|
381 |
1.1% |
68% |
|
382 |
2% |
67% |
|
383 |
2% |
64% |
|
384 |
2% |
63% |
|
385 |
2% |
61% |
|
386 |
2% |
58% |
|
387 |
2% |
56% |
|
388 |
0.9% |
54% |
|
389 |
2% |
53% |
|
390 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
391 |
2% |
49% |
|
392 |
2% |
48% |
|
393 |
1.4% |
46% |
|
394 |
4% |
45% |
|
395 |
2% |
40% |
|
396 |
4% |
38% |
|
397 |
2% |
34% |
|
398 |
2% |
31% |
|
399 |
2% |
30% |
|
400 |
3% |
28% |
|
401 |
1.3% |
25% |
|
402 |
2% |
24% |
|
403 |
3% |
21% |
|
404 |
2% |
19% |
|
405 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
406 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
407 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
408 |
2% |
14% |
|
409 |
2% |
12% |
|
410 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
411 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
412 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
413 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
414 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
415 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
416 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
417 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
418 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
419 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
420 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
422 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
423 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
424 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
425 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
426 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
427 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
428 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
429 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
430 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
432 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
433 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
434 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
438 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
439 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
440 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
441 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
442 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
443 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
444 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
445 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
317 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
351 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
352 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
354 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
355 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
356 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
357 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
358 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
359 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
360 |
2% |
91% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
362 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
363 |
2% |
88% |
|
364 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
365 |
2% |
84% |
|
366 |
1.3% |
83% |
|
367 |
2% |
81% |
|
368 |
0.8% |
79% |
|
369 |
3% |
78% |
|
370 |
2% |
76% |
|
371 |
3% |
74% |
|
372 |
2% |
71% |
|
373 |
1.0% |
70% |
|
374 |
3% |
69% |
|
375 |
2% |
66% |
|
376 |
2% |
64% |
|
377 |
2% |
63% |
|
378 |
2% |
61% |
|
379 |
2% |
59% |
|
380 |
1.0% |
57% |
|
381 |
2% |
56% |
|
382 |
3% |
53% |
|
383 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
384 |
2% |
50% |
|
385 |
1.5% |
48% |
|
386 |
2% |
46% |
|
387 |
3% |
44% |
|
388 |
3% |
41% |
|
389 |
3% |
39% |
|
390 |
3% |
35% |
|
391 |
2% |
32% |
|
392 |
4% |
30% |
|
393 |
2% |
26% |
|
394 |
3% |
24% |
|
395 |
2% |
21% |
|
396 |
1.0% |
19% |
|
397 |
2% |
18% |
|
398 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
399 |
2% |
16% |
|
400 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
401 |
2% |
13% |
|
402 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
403 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
404 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
405 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
406 |
2% |
7% |
|
407 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
408 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
409 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
410 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
411 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
412 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
413 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
414 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
415 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
419 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
422 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
425 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
426 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
427 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
428 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
429 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
430 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
431 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
432 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
433 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
317 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
351 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
352 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
353 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
354 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
355 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
356 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
357 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
358 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
359 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
360 |
2% |
91% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
362 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
363 |
2% |
88% |
|
364 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
365 |
2% |
84% |
|
366 |
1.3% |
83% |
|
367 |
2% |
81% |
|
368 |
0.8% |
79% |
|
369 |
3% |
78% |
|
370 |
2% |
76% |
|
371 |
3% |
74% |
|
372 |
2% |
71% |
|
373 |
1.0% |
70% |
|
374 |
3% |
69% |
|
375 |
2% |
66% |
|
376 |
2% |
64% |
|
377 |
2% |
63% |
|
378 |
2% |
61% |
|
379 |
2% |
59% |
|
380 |
1.0% |
57% |
|
381 |
2% |
56% |
|
382 |
3% |
53% |
|
383 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
384 |
2% |
50% |
|
385 |
1.5% |
48% |
|
386 |
2% |
46% |
|
387 |
3% |
44% |
|
388 |
3% |
41% |
|
389 |
3% |
39% |
|
390 |
3% |
35% |
|
391 |
2% |
32% |
|
392 |
4% |
30% |
|
393 |
2% |
26% |
|
394 |
3% |
24% |
|
395 |
2% |
21% |
|
396 |
1.0% |
19% |
|
397 |
2% |
18% |
|
398 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
399 |
2% |
16% |
|
400 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
401 |
2% |
13% |
|
402 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
403 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
404 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
405 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
406 |
2% |
7% |
|
407 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
408 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
409 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
410 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
411 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
412 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
413 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
414 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
415 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
416 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
417 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
419 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
422 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
424 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
425 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
426 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
427 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
428 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
429 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
430 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
431 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
432 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
433 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
434 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
435 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
196 |
0% |
100% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
200 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
203 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
204 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
205 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
206 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
207 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
210 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
214 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
215 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
216 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
217 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
218 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
219 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
220 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
221 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
222 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
223 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
224 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
225 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
226 |
2% |
95% |
|
227 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
228 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
229 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
230 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
231 |
2% |
89% |
|
232 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
233 |
2% |
86% |
|
234 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
235 |
2% |
83% |
|
236 |
1.0% |
82% |
|
237 |
2% |
81% |
|
238 |
3% |
79% |
|
239 |
2% |
76% |
|
240 |
4% |
74% |
|
241 |
2% |
70% |
|
242 |
3% |
68% |
|
243 |
3% |
65% |
|
244 |
3% |
61% |
|
245 |
3% |
59% |
|
246 |
2% |
56% |
|
247 |
1.5% |
54% |
|
248 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
249 |
1.1% |
50% |
|
250 |
3% |
49% |
|
251 |
2% |
47% |
|
252 |
1.0% |
44% |
|
253 |
2% |
43% |
|
254 |
2% |
41% |
|
255 |
2% |
39% |
|
256 |
2% |
37% |
|
257 |
2% |
36% |
|
258 |
3% |
34% |
|
259 |
1.0% |
31% |
|
260 |
2% |
30% |
|
261 |
3% |
29% |
|
262 |
2% |
26% |
|
263 |
3% |
24% |
|
264 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
265 |
2% |
21% |
|
266 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
267 |
2% |
17% |
|
268 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
269 |
2% |
15% |
|
270 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
271 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
272 |
2% |
11% |
|
273 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
274 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
275 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
276 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
277 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
278 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
279 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
280 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
281 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
292 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
302 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
195 |
0% |
100% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
200 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
201 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
202 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
203 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
204 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
205 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
206 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
209 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
212 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
214 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
216 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
217 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
218 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
219 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
220 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
221 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
222 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
223 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
224 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
225 |
2% |
95% |
|
226 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
227 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
228 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
229 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
230 |
2% |
89% |
|
231 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
232 |
2% |
86% |
|
233 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
234 |
2% |
83% |
|
235 |
1.0% |
82% |
|
236 |
2% |
81% |
|
237 |
3% |
79% |
|
238 |
2% |
76% |
|
239 |
4% |
74% |
|
240 |
2% |
70% |
|
241 |
3% |
68% |
|
242 |
3% |
65% |
|
243 |
3% |
61% |
|
244 |
3% |
59% |
|
245 |
2% |
56% |
|
246 |
1.5% |
54% |
|
247 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
248 |
1.1% |
50% |
|
249 |
3% |
49% |
|
250 |
2% |
46% |
|
251 |
1.0% |
44% |
|
252 |
2% |
43% |
|
253 |
2% |
41% |
|
254 |
2% |
39% |
|
255 |
2% |
37% |
|
256 |
2% |
36% |
|
257 |
3% |
34% |
|
258 |
1.0% |
31% |
|
259 |
2% |
30% |
|
260 |
3% |
29% |
|
261 |
2% |
26% |
|
262 |
3% |
24% |
|
263 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
264 |
2% |
21% |
|
265 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
266 |
2% |
17% |
|
267 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
268 |
2% |
15% |
|
269 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
271 |
2% |
11% |
|
272 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
273 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
274 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
275 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
276 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
277 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
279 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
280 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
291 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
293 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
187 |
0% |
100% |
|
188 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
189 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
190 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
191 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
192 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
203 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
206 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
208 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
211 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
212 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
213 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
215 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
216 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
217 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
218 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
219 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
220 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
221 |
1.4% |
91% |
|
222 |
2% |
90% |
|
223 |
2% |
88% |
|
224 |
1.2% |
86% |
|
225 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
226 |
0.6% |
84% |
|
227 |
2% |
83% |
|
228 |
3% |
81% |
|
229 |
2% |
79% |
|
230 |
1.3% |
76% |
|
231 |
3% |
75% |
|
232 |
2% |
72% |
|
233 |
2% |
70% |
|
234 |
2% |
69% |
|
235 |
4% |
66% |
|
236 |
2% |
62% |
|
237 |
4% |
60% |
|
238 |
1.4% |
55% |
|
239 |
2% |
54% |
|
240 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
241 |
2% |
51% |
|
242 |
2% |
49% |
|
243 |
0.9% |
47% |
|
244 |
2% |
46% |
|
245 |
2% |
44% |
|
246 |
2% |
42% |
|
247 |
2% |
39% |
|
248 |
2% |
37% |
|
249 |
2% |
36% |
|
250 |
1.1% |
33% |
|
251 |
1.0% |
32% |
|
252 |
2% |
31% |
|
253 |
2% |
29% |
|
254 |
0.8% |
27% |
|
255 |
2% |
26% |
|
256 |
3% |
24% |
|
257 |
1.3% |
21% |
|
258 |
2% |
20% |
|
259 |
1.1% |
18% |
|
260 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
261 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
262 |
2% |
14% |
|
263 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
264 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
265 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
266 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
267 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
268 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
269 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
270 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
271 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
272 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
276 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
279 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
287 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
288 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
289 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
290 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
291 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
292 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
293 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
159 |
0% |
100% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
162 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
163 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
164 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
165 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
166 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
167 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
168 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
169 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
170 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
171 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
172 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
173 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
174 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
175 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
176 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
177 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
178 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
179 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
180 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
181 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
182 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
183 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
184 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
185 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
186 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
187 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
188 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
189 |
1.2% |
94% |
|
190 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
191 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
192 |
1.3% |
90% |
|
193 |
2% |
89% |
|
194 |
1.2% |
88% |
|
195 |
2% |
86% |
|
196 |
2% |
84% |
|
197 |
3% |
82% |
|
198 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
199 |
2% |
78% |
|
200 |
3% |
76% |
|
201 |
3% |
73% |
|
202 |
2% |
70% |
|
203 |
2% |
68% |
|
204 |
4% |
66% |
|
205 |
3% |
62% |
|
206 |
3% |
59% |
|
207 |
3% |
55% |
|
208 |
2% |
52% |
|
209 |
2% |
51% |
Median |
210 |
2% |
48% |
|
211 |
2% |
46% |
|
212 |
2% |
44% |
|
213 |
3% |
42% |
|
214 |
1.5% |
39% |
|
215 |
1.4% |
38% |
|
216 |
3% |
36% |
|
217 |
1.4% |
33% |
|
218 |
2% |
32% |
|
219 |
1.2% |
30% |
|
220 |
1.5% |
29% |
|
221 |
2% |
28% |
|
222 |
2% |
25% |
|
223 |
1.4% |
23% |
|
224 |
3% |
22% |
|
225 |
2% |
19% |
|
226 |
2% |
17% |
|
227 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
228 |
2% |
14% |
|
229 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
230 |
2% |
11% |
|
231 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
232 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
233 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
234 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
235 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
236 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
237 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
238 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
239 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
240 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
241 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
247 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
251 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
252 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
253 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
254 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
255 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
256 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
257 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
258 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
157 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
158 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
159 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
162 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
163 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
166 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
168 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
169 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
170 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
172 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
173 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
174 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
175 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
176 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
177 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
178 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
179 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
180 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
181 |
1.2% |
94% |
|
182 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
183 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
184 |
1.4% |
91% |
|
185 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
186 |
2% |
89% |
|
187 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
188 |
2% |
85% |
|
189 |
2% |
84% |
|
190 |
2% |
82% |
|
191 |
2% |
80% |
|
192 |
3% |
77% |
|
193 |
2% |
75% |
|
194 |
2% |
72% |
|
195 |
3% |
71% |
|
196 |
4% |
67% |
|
197 |
1.4% |
63% |
|
198 |
2% |
62% |
|
199 |
3% |
60% |
|
200 |
2% |
57% |
|
201 |
3% |
55% |
|
202 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
203 |
2% |
48% |
|
204 |
2% |
46% |
|
205 |
3% |
44% |
|
206 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
207 |
1.4% |
40% |
|
208 |
2% |
39% |
|
209 |
2% |
37% |
|
210 |
2% |
35% |
|
211 |
1.2% |
33% |
|
212 |
3% |
32% |
|
213 |
1.1% |
29% |
|
214 |
1.4% |
28% |
|
215 |
1.3% |
26% |
|
216 |
2% |
25% |
|
217 |
2% |
23% |
|
218 |
3% |
21% |
|
219 |
1.4% |
18% |
|
220 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
221 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
222 |
1.5% |
14% |
|
223 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
224 |
1.5% |
11% |
|
225 |
2% |
9% |
|
226 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
227 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
228 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
229 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
230 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
231 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
232 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
233 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
236 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
239 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
243 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
244 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
245 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
246 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
253 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
153 |
0% |
100% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
157 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
158 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
159 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
162 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
163 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
164 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
165 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
166 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
167 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
168 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
171 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
172 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
173 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
174 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
175 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
176 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
177 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
178 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
179 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
180 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
181 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
182 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
183 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
184 |
2% |
93% |
|
185 |
2% |
91% |
|
186 |
2% |
89% |
|
187 |
3% |
88% |
|
188 |
2% |
85% |
|
189 |
3% |
84% |
|
190 |
2% |
80% |
|
191 |
2% |
78% |
|
192 |
3% |
77% |
|
193 |
3% |
74% |
|
194 |
3% |
71% |
|
195 |
4% |
68% |
|
196 |
3% |
64% |
|
197 |
2% |
62% |
|
198 |
2% |
60% |
|
199 |
3% |
58% |
|
200 |
1.1% |
55% |
Median |
201 |
2% |
54% |
|
202 |
2% |
52% |
|
203 |
2% |
50% |
|
204 |
3% |
48% |
|
205 |
1.0% |
45% |
|
206 |
3% |
44% |
|
207 |
0.8% |
41% |
|
208 |
2% |
40% |
|
209 |
2% |
38% |
|
210 |
3% |
36% |
|
211 |
1.1% |
33% |
|
212 |
2% |
32% |
|
213 |
2% |
30% |
|
214 |
3% |
28% |
|
215 |
2% |
25% |
|
216 |
2% |
23% |
|
217 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
218 |
4% |
21% |
|
219 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
220 |
3% |
16% |
|
221 |
1.0% |
13% |
|
222 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
223 |
2% |
11% |
|
224 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
225 |
2% |
8% |
|
226 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
227 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
228 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
229 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
230 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
231 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
232 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
233 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
235 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
236 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
239 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
241 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
243 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
244 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
245 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
252 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
145 |
0% |
100% |
|
146 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
147 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
148 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
149 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
150 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
151 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
152 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
155 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
156 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
157 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
158 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
161 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
165 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
166 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
167 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
|
168 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
169 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
170 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
171 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
172 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
173 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
174 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
175 |
2% |
95% |
|
176 |
1.5% |
93% |
|
177 |
1.3% |
91% |
|
178 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
179 |
2% |
89% |
|
180 |
2% |
87% |
|
181 |
2% |
85% |
|
182 |
2% |
83% |
|
183 |
3% |
81% |
|
184 |
2% |
79% |
|
185 |
3% |
76% |
|
186 |
4% |
74% |
|
187 |
2% |
70% |
|
188 |
3% |
68% |
|
189 |
1.5% |
65% |
|
190 |
4% |
63% |
|
191 |
2% |
59% |
|
192 |
1.4% |
58% |
|
193 |
2% |
56% |
Median |
194 |
3% |
54% |
|
195 |
2% |
52% |
|
196 |
2% |
50% |
|
197 |
2% |
48% |
|
198 |
3% |
46% |
|
199 |
2% |
44% |
|
200 |
2% |
42% |
|
201 |
2% |
40% |
|
202 |
2% |
38% |
|
203 |
2% |
36% |
|
204 |
1.1% |
34% |
|
205 |
3% |
33% |
|
206 |
2% |
31% |
|
207 |
1.4% |
28% |
|
208 |
3% |
27% |
|
209 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
210 |
2% |
23% |
|
211 |
1.1% |
21% |
|
212 |
3% |
20% |
|
213 |
0.9% |
17% |
|
214 |
2% |
16% |
|
215 |
2% |
14% |
|
216 |
2% |
12% |
|
217 |
2% |
10% |
|
218 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
219 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
220 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
221 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
222 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
223 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
224 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
225 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
226 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
227 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
228 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
233 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
235 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
237 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
238 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
239 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
240 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
241 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
242 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
243 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
244 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
245 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
246 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
118 |
0% |
100% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
123 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
126 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
130 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
131 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
133 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
134 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
135 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
137 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
141 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
142 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
143 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
144 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
145 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
146 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
147 |
1.5% |
93% |
|
148 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
149 |
3% |
90% |
|
150 |
3% |
87% |
|
151 |
2% |
85% |
|
152 |
2% |
82% |
|
153 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
154 |
2% |
79% |
|
155 |
3% |
77% |
|
156 |
3% |
74% |
|
157 |
4% |
71% |
|
158 |
6% |
67% |
|
159 |
6% |
61% |
|
160 |
3% |
55% |
|
161 |
0.7% |
53% |
|
162 |
1.3% |
52% |
Median |
163 |
1.2% |
51% |
|
164 |
3% |
49% |
|
165 |
3% |
46% |
|
166 |
2% |
43% |
|
167 |
1.4% |
41% |
|
168 |
2% |
40% |
|
169 |
1.3% |
38% |
|
170 |
2% |
37% |
|
171 |
1.4% |
35% |
|
172 |
3% |
33% |
|
173 |
2% |
31% |
|
174 |
3% |
29% |
|
175 |
2% |
26% |
|
176 |
2% |
24% |
|
177 |
2% |
22% |
|
178 |
2% |
20% |
|
179 |
2% |
18% |
|
180 |
2% |
16% |
|
181 |
3% |
14% |
|
182 |
2% |
12% |
|
183 |
2% |
10% |
|
184 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
185 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
186 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
187 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
188 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
189 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
190 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
191 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
193 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
194 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
195 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
197 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
199 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
200 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
201 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
203 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
205 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
206 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
207 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
208 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
209 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
116 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
117 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
119 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
120 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
121 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
122 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
123 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
126 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
128 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
130 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
131 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
132 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
133 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
136 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
137 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
138 |
2% |
95% |
|
139 |
2% |
93% |
|
140 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
141 |
2% |
91% |
|
142 |
2% |
89% |
|
143 |
3% |
87% |
|
144 |
1.5% |
84% |
|
145 |
2% |
83% |
|
146 |
3% |
81% |
|
147 |
2% |
78% |
|
148 |
3% |
76% |
|
149 |
2% |
73% |
|
150 |
4% |
71% |
|
151 |
6% |
67% |
|
152 |
3% |
61% |
|
153 |
2% |
58% |
|
154 |
4% |
56% |
|
155 |
2% |
52% |
Median |
156 |
2% |
50% |
|
157 |
2% |
48% |
|
158 |
2% |
46% |
|
159 |
2% |
44% |
|
160 |
2% |
43% |
|
161 |
2% |
41% |
|
162 |
2% |
39% |
|
163 |
1.3% |
37% |
|
164 |
2% |
35% |
|
165 |
2% |
33% |
|
166 |
1.2% |
31% |
|
167 |
2% |
30% |
|
168 |
4% |
28% |
|
169 |
2% |
25% |
|
170 |
2% |
23% |
|
171 |
2% |
21% |
|
172 |
2% |
19% |
|
173 |
1.4% |
17% |
|
174 |
2% |
16% |
|
175 |
3% |
14% |
|
176 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
177 |
2% |
10% |
|
178 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
179 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
180 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
181 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
182 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
183 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
184 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
185 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
186 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
187 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
188 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
189 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
191 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
192 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
193 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
196 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
197 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
198 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
199 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
200 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
201 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
202 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
203 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
204 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
205 |
0% |
0% |
|
206 |
0% |
0% |
|
207 |
0% |
0% |
|
208 |
0% |
0% |
|
209 |
0% |
0% |
|
210 |
0% |
0% |
|
211 |
0% |
0% |
|
212 |
0% |
0% |
|
213 |
0% |
0% |
|
214 |
0% |
0% |
|
215 |
0% |
0% |
|
216 |
0% |
0% |
|
217 |
0% |
0% |
|
218 |
0% |
0% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–18 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1176
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.80%