Opinion Poll by YouGov, 12–20 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.6% 42.0–43.2% 41.8–43.3% 41.7–43.5% 41.4–43.8%
Labour Party 41.0% 28.7% 28.2–29.3% 28.0–29.4% 27.9–29.6% 27.6–29.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 14.9% 14.4–15.3% 14.3–15.4% 14.2–15.5% 14.0–15.7%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.7–4.2% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.5%
Brexit Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.7–4.2% 3.7–4.3% 3.6–4.3% 3.5–4.5%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.8–3.2% 2.7–3.3% 2.7–3.3% 2.6–3.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.9–1.1% 0.8–1.2% 0.8–1.2% 0.8–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 360 356–365 355–367 354–369 350–372
Labour Party 262 181 177–185 176–185 174–186 171–190
Liberal Democrats 12 36 34–38 34–38 33–39 32–40
Scottish National Party 35 48 45–50 45–50 45–50 42–50
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 4–8 4–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0.4% 99.1%  
353 0.6% 98.7%  
354 1.2% 98%  
355 4% 97%  
356 8% 93%  
357 6% 85%  
358 8% 79%  
359 14% 71%  
360 10% 56% Median
361 7% 46%  
362 11% 40%  
363 9% 29%  
364 5% 19%  
365 5% 15%  
366 3% 10%  
367 3% 6%  
368 0.8% 4%  
369 1.0% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.3% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0.2% 100%  
170 0.2% 99.8%  
171 0.5% 99.6%  
172 0.2% 99.1%  
173 0.7% 98.8%  
174 1.1% 98%  
175 2% 97%  
176 1.0% 95%  
177 7% 94%  
178 8% 87%  
179 9% 79%  
180 14% 70%  
181 11% 57% Median
182 6% 45%  
183 12% 39%  
184 12% 27%  
185 11% 16%  
186 3% 5%  
187 0.2% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.3%  
189 0.3% 0.9%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 2% 98%  
34 6% 95%  
35 18% 89%  
36 30% 71% Median
37 28% 42%  
38 11% 14%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.9% 1.3%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0.4% 100%  
42 1.2% 99.6%  
43 0.3% 98%  
44 0% 98%  
45 8% 98%  
46 0.6% 90%  
47 29% 89%  
48 35% 61% Median
49 0.9% 25%  
50 24% 25%  
51 0.5% 0.5%  
52 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 49% 100% Last Result
5 11% 51% Median
6 12% 40%  
7 9% 28%  
8 19% 19%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 414 100% 410–418 409–420 408–422 403–425
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 407 100% 405–412 404–414 403–415 399–419
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 396 100% 392–401 391–403 390–404 387–408
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 366 100% 360–371 360–373 359–375 355–379
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 360 100% 356–365 355–367 354–369 350–372
Conservative Party 317 360 100% 356–365 355–367 354–369 350–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 272 0% 267–276 265–277 263–278 260–282
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 271 0% 266–275 264–276 262–277 259–281
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 265 0% 260–271 258–271 256–272 252–276
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 235 0% 230–239 228–240 227–241 223–244
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 229 0% 224–234 222–235 221–236 217–239
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 224 0% 219–226 217–227 216–228 212–232
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 217 0% 213–221 211–222 209–223 206–228
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 187 0% 182–190 182–191 181–191 176–195
Labour Party 262 181 0% 177–185 176–185 174–186 171–190

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0.1% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.3% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.5%  
405 0.3% 99.4%  
406 0.4% 99.0%  
407 0.6% 98.6%  
408 2% 98%  
409 5% 96%  
410 14% 92%  
411 11% 78%  
412 5% 67%  
413 5% 62% Median
414 16% 57%  
415 14% 42%  
416 7% 28%  
417 7% 21%  
418 5% 13%  
419 3% 8%  
420 2% 6%  
421 1.1% 4%  
422 1.2% 3%  
423 0.4% 2%  
424 0.5% 1.2%  
425 0.3% 0.7%  
426 0.2% 0.4%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0.1% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0.1% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.3% 99.7%  
400 0.3% 99.4%  
401 0.6% 99.1%  
402 0.6% 98%  
403 0.8% 98%  
404 3% 97%  
405 8% 94%  
406 18% 86%  
407 19% 68%  
408 5% 50% Median
409 5% 45%  
410 18% 40%  
411 7% 22%  
412 6% 15%  
413 3% 9%  
414 3% 6%  
415 1.1% 3%  
416 0.7% 2%  
417 0.4% 1.2%  
418 0.3% 0.8%  
419 0.3% 0.5%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.2% 0.2%  
422 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0.3% 99.8%  
387 0.3% 99.5%  
388 0.2% 99.2%  
389 0.4% 99.0%  
390 1.4% 98.7%  
391 3% 97%  
392 6% 95%  
393 7% 89%  
394 9% 82%  
395 14% 72%  
396 12% 58% Median
397 7% 46%  
398 8% 40%  
399 12% 32%  
400 6% 20%  
401 5% 14%  
402 4% 9%  
403 1.3% 5%  
404 2% 4%  
405 0.6% 2%  
406 0.5% 2%  
407 0.4% 1.0%  
408 0.3% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.2% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0.2% 99.4%  
357 0.5% 99.2%  
358 0.7% 98.6%  
359 2% 98%  
360 6% 96%  
361 4% 89%  
362 6% 85%  
363 9% 79%  
364 8% 70%  
365 7% 62% Median
366 9% 55%  
367 14% 46%  
368 7% 32%  
369 8% 25%  
370 4% 17%  
371 3% 13%  
372 3% 9%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.2% 4%  
375 1.1% 3%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.5% 1.3%  
378 0.3% 0.8%  
379 0.2% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0.4% 99.1%  
353 0.6% 98.7%  
354 1.2% 98%  
355 4% 97%  
356 8% 93%  
357 6% 85%  
358 8% 79%  
359 14% 71%  
360 10% 56% Median
361 7% 46%  
362 11% 40%  
363 9% 29%  
364 5% 19%  
365 5% 15%  
366 3% 10%  
367 3% 6%  
368 0.8% 4%  
369 1.0% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.3% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0.1% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.6%  
351 0.3% 99.3%  
352 0.4% 99.1%  
353 0.6% 98.7%  
354 1.2% 98%  
355 4% 97%  
356 8% 93%  
357 6% 85%  
358 8% 79%  
359 14% 71%  
360 10% 56% Median
361 7% 46%  
362 11% 40%  
363 9% 29%  
364 5% 19%  
365 5% 15%  
366 3% 10%  
367 3% 6%  
368 0.8% 4%  
369 1.0% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.5% 1.2%  
372 0.3% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.3% 99.6%  
261 0.5% 99.3%  
262 0.6% 98.8%  
263 1.0% 98%  
264 0.8% 97%  
265 3% 96%  
266 3% 94%  
267 5% 90%  
268 5% 85%  
269 9% 81%  
270 11% 71%  
271 7% 60% Median
272 10% 54%  
273 14% 44%  
274 8% 29%  
275 6% 21%  
276 8% 15%  
277 4% 7%  
278 1.2% 3%  
279 0.6% 2%  
280 0.4% 1.3%  
281 0.3% 0.9%  
282 0.2% 0.7%  
283 0.2% 0.4%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0.1% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.3% 99.6%  
260 0.5% 99.3%  
261 0.6% 98.8%  
262 1.0% 98%  
263 0.8% 97%  
264 3% 96%  
265 3% 94%  
266 5% 90%  
267 5% 85%  
268 9% 81%  
269 11% 71%  
270 7% 60% Median
271 10% 54%  
272 14% 44%  
273 8% 29%  
274 6% 21%  
275 8% 15%  
276 4% 7%  
277 1.2% 3%  
278 0.6% 2%  
279 0.4% 1.3%  
280 0.3% 0.9%  
281 0.2% 0.7%  
282 0.2% 0.4%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0.1% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0.3% 99.5%  
254 0.5% 99.2%  
255 0.5% 98.7%  
256 1.1% 98%  
257 1.2% 97%  
258 2% 96%  
259 3% 94%  
260 3% 91%  
261 4% 87%  
262 8% 83%  
263 7% 75%  
264 14% 68%  
265 9% 54% Median
266 7% 45%  
267 8% 38%  
268 9% 30%  
269 6% 21%  
270 4% 15%  
271 6% 11%  
272 2% 4%  
273 0.7% 2%  
274 0.5% 1.4%  
275 0.2% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.2% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.3% 99.7%  
224 0.4% 99.4%  
225 0.5% 99.0%  
226 0.6% 98%  
227 2% 98%  
228 1.3% 96%  
229 4% 95%  
230 5% 91%  
231 6% 86%  
232 12% 80%  
233 8% 68%  
234 7% 60% Median
235 12% 54%  
236 14% 42%  
237 9% 28%  
238 7% 18%  
239 6% 11%  
240 3% 5%  
241 1.4% 3%  
242 0.4% 1.3%  
243 0.2% 1.0%  
244 0.3% 0.8%  
245 0.3% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.3% 99.7%  
218 0.4% 99.4%  
219 0.5% 99.0%  
220 0.8% 98%  
221 0.9% 98%  
222 2% 97%  
223 2% 94%  
224 2% 92%  
225 7% 90%  
226 6% 83%  
227 10% 77%  
228 12% 67%  
229 10% 55% Median
230 8% 45%  
231 12% 37%  
232 7% 25%  
233 7% 18%  
234 4% 11%  
235 4% 7%  
236 2% 3%  
237 0.2% 1.2%  
238 0.3% 0.9%  
239 0.2% 0.7%  
240 0.2% 0.4%  
241 0.2% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0.2% 100%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.3% 99.8%  
213 0.3% 99.5%  
214 0.4% 99.2%  
215 0.7% 98.8%  
216 1.1% 98%  
217 3% 97%  
218 3% 94%  
219 6% 91%  
220 7% 85%  
221 18% 78%  
222 5% 60% Median
223 5% 55%  
224 19% 50%  
225 18% 32%  
226 8% 14%  
227 3% 6%  
228 0.8% 3%  
229 0.6% 2%  
230 0.6% 2%  
231 0.3% 0.9%  
232 0.3% 0.6%  
233 0.1% 0.3%  
234 0.1% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0.1% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0.1% 100%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.2% 99.8%  
206 0.3% 99.6%  
207 0.5% 99.3%  
208 0.4% 98.8%  
209 1.2% 98%  
210 1.1% 97%  
211 2% 96%  
212 3% 94%  
213 5% 92%  
214 7% 87%  
215 7% 79%  
216 14% 72%  
217 16% 58% Median
218 5% 43%  
219 5% 38%  
220 11% 33%  
221 14% 22%  
222 5% 8%  
223 2% 4%  
224 0.6% 2%  
225 0.4% 1.4%  
226 0.3% 1.0%  
227 0.1% 0.6%  
228 0.3% 0.5%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0.1% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0.1% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0.4% 99.9%  
177 0.3% 99.5%  
178 0.2% 99.2%  
179 0.3% 99.0%  
180 0.4% 98.7%  
181 2% 98%  
182 7% 96%  
183 3% 89%  
184 14% 86%  
185 12% 72%  
186 5% 60% Median
187 9% 55%  
188 17% 46%  
189 17% 29%  
190 7% 12%  
191 3% 5%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.4%  
194 0.4% 1.2%  
195 0.4% 0.8%  
196 0.1% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
169 0.2% 100%  
170 0.2% 99.8%  
171 0.5% 99.6%  
172 0.2% 99.1%  
173 0.7% 98.8%  
174 1.1% 98%  
175 2% 97%  
176 1.0% 95%  
177 7% 94%  
178 8% 87%  
179 9% 79%  
180 14% 70%  
181 11% 57% Median
182 6% 45%  
183 12% 39%  
184 12% 27%  
185 11% 16%  
186 3% 5%  
187 0.2% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.3%  
189 0.3% 0.9%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations