Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 20–22 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.0% 40.6–43.4% 40.2–43.8% 39.9–44.2% 39.2–44.9%
Labour Party 41.0% 32.0% 30.7–33.4% 30.3–33.7% 30.0–34.1% 29.4–34.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 14.0% 13.0–15.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.6–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 348 329–366 326–371 322–373 315–380
Labour Party 262 206 189–223 185–226 183–230 179–238
Liberal Democrats 12 35 31–38 30–40 30–42 29–44
Scottish National Party 35 40 31–42 25–47 20–48 14–50
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 4–8 3–10

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.4% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
318 0.4% 98.7%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.1% 98%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.5% 97%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 0.8% 96%  
326 2% 96% Majority
327 2% 94%  
328 1.4% 92%  
329 1.3% 91%  
330 0.4% 90%  
331 1.0% 89%  
332 1.0% 88%  
333 2% 87%  
334 2% 86%  
335 3% 83%  
336 3% 81%  
337 3% 77%  
338 2% 74%  
339 3% 72%  
340 1.2% 70%  
341 3% 68%  
342 2% 66%  
343 2% 64%  
344 2% 62%  
345 1.2% 61%  
346 3% 59%  
347 4% 57%  
348 5% 52% Median
349 5% 47%  
350 4% 42%  
351 2% 39%  
352 2% 37%  
353 2% 35%  
354 2% 33%  
355 0.8% 32%  
356 3% 31%  
357 3% 28%  
358 3% 25%  
359 2% 23%  
360 2% 21%  
361 1.0% 19%  
362 3% 18%  
363 3% 15%  
364 1.1% 12%  
365 0.9% 11%  
366 1.4% 10%  
367 0.6% 9%  
368 0.7% 8%  
369 2% 8%  
370 1.0% 6%  
371 0.9% 5%  
372 1.0% 4%  
373 1.0% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.2% 1.5%  
377 0.3% 1.3%  
378 0.4% 1.0%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 0.2% 99.5%  
181 0.8% 99.3%  
182 0.6% 98%  
183 0.7% 98%  
184 0.8% 97%  
185 2% 96%  
186 2% 95%  
187 0.9% 93%  
188 1.3% 92%  
189 1.4% 91%  
190 2% 89%  
191 1.2% 87%  
192 0.9% 86%  
193 3% 85%  
194 3% 82%  
195 4% 79%  
196 1.2% 75%  
197 2% 74%  
198 0.5% 72%  
199 2% 71%  
200 2% 69%  
201 2% 67%  
202 4% 65%  
203 2% 61%  
204 4% 59%  
205 4% 55%  
206 5% 50% Median
207 5% 45%  
208 2% 41%  
209 4% 39%  
210 1.1% 35%  
211 3% 34%  
212 3% 31%  
213 2% 28%  
214 1.3% 26%  
215 1.1% 25%  
216 5% 24%  
217 2% 19%  
218 2% 16%  
219 1.0% 14%  
220 0.6% 13%  
221 0.8% 13%  
222 2% 12%  
223 2% 10%  
224 2% 8%  
225 1.1% 7%  
226 0.5% 5%  
227 1.3% 5%  
228 0.8% 4%  
229 0.3% 3%  
230 0.4% 3%  
231 0.2% 2%  
232 0.3% 2%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.2% 1.1%  
235 0.2% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0.1% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 1.3% 100%  
30 5% 98.6%  
31 10% 94%  
32 15% 84%  
33 8% 69%  
34 11% 61%  
35 12% 51% Median
36 11% 39%  
37 11% 28%  
38 8% 17%  
39 3% 9%  
40 2% 6%  
41 1.4% 5%  
42 1.4% 3%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.1% 99.7%  
12 0% 99.7%  
13 0.1% 99.6%  
14 0.1% 99.5%  
15 0.1% 99.4%  
16 0.2% 99.3%  
17 0.2% 99.1%  
18 0.6% 98.9%  
19 0.6% 98%  
20 0.3% 98%  
21 0.1% 97%  
22 0.3% 97%  
23 2% 97%  
24 0.3% 95%  
25 0.9% 95%  
26 0.4% 94%  
27 0.5% 94%  
28 2% 93%  
29 0.2% 91%  
30 0.2% 91%  
31 4% 91%  
32 2% 87%  
33 6% 86%  
34 4% 80%  
35 5% 75% Last Result
36 6% 70%  
37 4% 64%  
38 2% 60%  
39 5% 57%  
40 4% 52% Median
41 32% 48%  
42 5% 15%  
43 0.3% 10%  
44 0% 10%  
45 4% 10%  
46 0% 6%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.1% 1.5%  
50 1.3% 1.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 39% 98% Last Result
5 26% 59% Median
6 8% 33%  
7 4% 25%  
8 19% 22%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 391 100% 373–409 368–412 364–415 356–420
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 386 100% 368–404 363–407 359–410 351–414
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 382 100% 366–400 362–404 358–407 352–412
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 353 98% 335–371 331–376 327–379 320–386
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 348 96% 329–366 326–371 322–373 315–380
Conservative Party 317 348 96% 329–366 326–371 322–373 315–380
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 284 0.1% 266–303 261–306 259–310 252–317
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 283 0% 265–302 260–305 258–309 251–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 278 0% 260–296 255–300 252–304 245–311
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 249 0% 231–265 227–269 224–273 219–279
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 245 0% 227–263 224–268 221–272 217–280
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 244 0% 226–261 221–264 219–268 213–274
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 240 0% 222–258 219–263 216–267 211–275
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 210 0% 195–227 191–231 189–234 185–242
Labour Party 262 206 0% 189–223 185–226 183–230 179–238

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.6%  
356 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
357 0.1% 99.4%  
358 0.2% 99.3%  
359 0.2% 99.1%  
360 0.4% 98.9%  
361 0.2% 98.5%  
362 0.3% 98%  
363 0.3% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.5% 97%  
366 0.9% 97%  
367 0.6% 96%  
368 0.8% 95%  
369 1.0% 95%  
370 1.1% 94%  
371 1.1% 93%  
372 1.1% 92%  
373 1.4% 90%  
374 1.2% 89%  
375 1.5% 88%  
376 3% 86%  
377 1.2% 84%  
378 2% 83%  
379 2% 81%  
380 2% 79%  
381 3% 77%  
382 1.0% 74%  
383 2% 73%  
384 3% 71%  
385 2% 68%  
386 3% 66%  
387 2% 63%  
388 3% 61%  
389 2% 58%  
390 4% 56%  
391 2% 52%  
392 4% 50%  
393 3% 46% Median
394 4% 42%  
395 3% 39%  
396 3% 36%  
397 2% 33%  
398 2% 31%  
399 2% 29%  
400 2% 28%  
401 3% 26%  
402 1.1% 23%  
403 3% 22%  
404 2% 19%  
405 2% 17%  
406 2% 15%  
407 1.3% 13%  
408 1.2% 12%  
409 2% 11%  
410 1.4% 9%  
411 1.1% 8%  
412 2% 7%  
413 0.7% 5%  
414 1.2% 4%  
415 0.5% 3%  
416 0.6% 2%  
417 0.5% 2%  
418 0.6% 1.4%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0.1% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.8%  
346 0% 99.8%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.7%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.1% 99.5%  
352 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.3%  
354 0.3% 99.3%  
355 0.5% 99.0%  
356 0.3% 98%  
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.2% 98%  
359 0.3% 98%  
360 0.3% 97%  
361 0.9% 97%  
362 0.9% 96%  
363 0.6% 95%  
364 0.8% 95%  
365 1.2% 94%  
366 0.8% 93%  
367 2% 92%  
368 1.2% 90%  
369 1.4% 89%  
370 1.5% 87%  
371 1.2% 86%  
372 4% 85%  
373 1.2% 81%  
374 1.0% 80%  
375 2% 79%  
376 3% 77%  
377 2% 74%  
378 2% 72%  
379 2% 70%  
380 4% 68%  
381 1.1% 64%  
382 2% 63%  
383 3% 61%  
384 2% 57%  
385 3% 55%  
386 3% 52%  
387 3% 49%  
388 4% 45% Median
389 5% 41%  
390 3% 36%  
391 2% 33%  
392 2% 32%  
393 2% 29%  
394 2% 28%  
395 2% 26%  
396 2% 24%  
397 3% 22%  
398 1.5% 20%  
399 2% 18%  
400 2% 16%  
401 1.2% 14%  
402 1.0% 12%  
403 1.4% 11%  
404 2% 10%  
405 1.0% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 1.0% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.7% 3%  
410 1.2% 3%  
411 0.6% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.0%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.2% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.2% 99.6%  
353 0.1% 99.3%  
354 0.2% 99.2%  
355 0.2% 99.0%  
356 0.3% 98.7%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.8% 98%  
359 0.5% 97%  
360 0.7% 97%  
361 0.8% 96%  
362 0.8% 95%  
363 2% 94%  
364 1.2% 92%  
365 1.1% 91%  
366 1.2% 90%  
367 0.6% 89%  
368 2% 88%  
369 3% 86%  
370 3% 83%  
371 2% 81%  
372 1.0% 79%  
373 3% 78%  
374 4% 75%  
375 1.1% 70%  
376 2% 69%  
377 4% 67%  
378 2% 64%  
379 3% 62%  
380 4% 59%  
381 4% 55%  
382 2% 51%  
383 3% 48% Median
384 3% 45%  
385 2% 43%  
386 3% 40%  
387 2% 37%  
388 3% 35%  
389 2% 32%  
390 3% 30%  
391 3% 27%  
392 2% 24%  
393 2% 22%  
394 2% 20%  
395 2% 19%  
396 2% 17%  
397 0.8% 14%  
398 0.8% 14%  
399 2% 13%  
400 1.5% 11%  
401 2% 9%  
402 1.1% 8%  
403 1.4% 7%  
404 1.4% 5%  
405 0.4% 4%  
406 0.5% 3%  
407 0.6% 3%  
408 0.7% 2%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.2% 1.2%  
411 0.2% 0.9%  
412 0.3% 0.7%  
413 0.2% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
322 0.3% 99.0%  
323 0.2% 98.7%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.1% 98%  
326 0.2% 98% Majority
327 0.3% 98%  
328 0.4% 97%  
329 0.6% 97%  
330 1.1% 96%  
331 2% 95%  
332 1.4% 94%  
333 1.3% 92%  
334 0.5% 91%  
335 1.1% 91%  
336 0.9% 89%  
337 1.4% 89%  
338 2% 87%  
339 2% 85%  
340 3% 83%  
341 2% 80%  
342 3% 78%  
343 1.4% 75%  
344 2% 74%  
345 2% 71%  
346 2% 69%  
347 2% 67%  
348 2% 64%  
349 2% 63%  
350 1.1% 61%  
351 4% 60%  
352 3% 56%  
353 3% 53% Median
354 5% 50%  
355 3% 44%  
356 2% 41%  
357 3% 39%  
358 2% 36%  
359 2% 34%  
360 2% 33%  
361 2% 30%  
362 2% 28%  
363 1.2% 26%  
364 2% 25%  
365 2% 22%  
366 2% 20%  
367 1.4% 18%  
368 3% 17%  
369 1.1% 14%  
370 1.1% 13%  
371 2% 12%  
372 0.6% 10%  
373 1.2% 9%  
374 0.7% 8%  
375 1.3% 7%  
376 1.2% 6%  
377 1.0% 5%  
378 0.9% 4%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.5% 2%  
383 0.2% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.8%  
386 0.2% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.4% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
318 0.4% 98.7%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.1% 98%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.5% 97%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 0.8% 96%  
326 2% 96% Majority
327 2% 94%  
328 1.4% 92%  
329 1.3% 91%  
330 0.4% 90%  
331 1.0% 89%  
332 1.0% 88%  
333 2% 87%  
334 2% 86%  
335 3% 83%  
336 3% 81%  
337 3% 77%  
338 2% 74%  
339 3% 72%  
340 1.2% 70%  
341 3% 68%  
342 2% 66%  
343 2% 64%  
344 2% 62%  
345 1.2% 61%  
346 3% 59%  
347 4% 57%  
348 5% 52% Median
349 5% 47%  
350 4% 42%  
351 2% 39%  
352 2% 37%  
353 2% 35%  
354 2% 33%  
355 0.8% 32%  
356 3% 31%  
357 3% 28%  
358 3% 25%  
359 2% 23%  
360 2% 21%  
361 1.0% 19%  
362 3% 18%  
363 3% 15%  
364 1.1% 12%  
365 0.9% 11%  
366 1.4% 10%  
367 0.6% 9%  
368 0.7% 8%  
369 2% 8%  
370 1.0% 6%  
371 0.9% 5%  
372 1.0% 4%  
373 1.0% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.2% 1.5%  
377 0.3% 1.3%  
378 0.4% 1.0%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.4% 99.5%  
317 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
318 0.4% 98.7%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.1% 98%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.5% 97%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 0.8% 96%  
326 2% 96% Majority
327 2% 94%  
328 1.4% 92%  
329 1.3% 91%  
330 0.4% 90%  
331 1.0% 89%  
332 1.0% 88%  
333 2% 87%  
334 2% 86%  
335 3% 83%  
336 3% 81%  
337 3% 77%  
338 2% 74%  
339 3% 72%  
340 1.2% 70%  
341 3% 68%  
342 2% 66%  
343 2% 64%  
344 2% 62%  
345 1.2% 61%  
346 3% 59%  
347 4% 57%  
348 5% 52% Median
349 5% 47%  
350 4% 42%  
351 2% 39%  
352 2% 37%  
353 2% 35%  
354 2% 33%  
355 0.8% 32%  
356 3% 31%  
357 3% 28%  
358 3% 25%  
359 2% 23%  
360 2% 21%  
361 1.0% 19%  
362 3% 18%  
363 3% 15%  
364 1.1% 12%  
365 0.9% 11%  
366 1.4% 10%  
367 0.6% 9%  
368 0.7% 8%  
369 2% 8%  
370 1.0% 6%  
371 0.9% 5%  
372 1.0% 4%  
373 1.0% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.2% 1.5%  
377 0.3% 1.3%  
378 0.4% 1.0%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.2% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.4% 99.4%  
255 0.3% 99.0%  
256 0.2% 98.7%  
257 0.3% 98.5%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 1.0% 98%  
260 1.0% 97%  
261 0.9% 96%  
262 1.0% 95%  
263 2% 94%  
264 0.7% 92%  
265 0.6% 92%  
266 1.4% 91%  
267 0.9% 90%  
268 1.1% 89%  
269 3% 88%  
270 3% 85%  
271 1.0% 82%  
272 2% 81%  
273 2% 79%  
274 3% 77%  
275 3% 75%  
276 3% 72%  
277 0.8% 69%  
278 2% 68%  
279 2% 67%  
280 2% 65%  
281 2% 63%  
282 4% 61%  
283 5% 58%  
284 5% 53%  
285 4% 48%  
286 3% 43%  
287 1.2% 41% Median
288 2% 39%  
289 2% 38%  
290 2% 36%  
291 3% 34%  
292 1.2% 32%  
293 3% 30%  
294 2% 28%  
295 3% 26%  
296 3% 23%  
297 3% 19%  
298 2% 17%  
299 2% 14%  
300 1.0% 13%  
301 1.0% 12%  
302 0.4% 11%  
303 1.3% 10%  
304 1.4% 9%  
305 2% 8%  
306 2% 6%  
307 0.8% 4%  
308 0.6% 4%  
309 0.5% 3%  
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.3% 2%  
314 0.4% 2% Last Result
315 0.3% 1.3%  
316 0.4% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0.4% 99.4%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98.7%  
256 0.3% 98.5%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 1.0% 98%  
259 1.0% 97%  
260 0.9% 96%  
261 1.0% 95%  
262 2% 94%  
263 0.7% 92%  
264 0.6% 92%  
265 1.4% 91%  
266 0.9% 90%  
267 1.1% 89%  
268 3% 88%  
269 3% 85%  
270 1.0% 82%  
271 2% 81%  
272 2% 79%  
273 3% 77%  
274 3% 75%  
275 3% 72%  
276 0.8% 69%  
277 2% 68%  
278 2% 67%  
279 2% 65%  
280 2% 63%  
281 4% 61%  
282 5% 58%  
283 5% 53%  
284 4% 48%  
285 3% 43%  
286 1.2% 41% Median
287 2% 39%  
288 2% 38%  
289 2% 36%  
290 3% 34%  
291 1.2% 32%  
292 3% 30%  
293 2% 28%  
294 3% 26%  
295 3% 23%  
296 3% 19%  
297 2% 17%  
298 2% 14%  
299 1.0% 13%  
300 1.0% 12%  
301 0.4% 11%  
302 1.3% 10%  
303 1.4% 9%  
304 2% 8%  
305 2% 6%  
306 0.8% 4%  
307 0.6% 4%  
308 0.5% 3%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.4% 2% Last Result
314 0.3% 1.3%  
315 0.4% 0.9%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.2% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.2%  
248 0.2% 99.1%  
249 0.5% 98.9%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.6% 98%  
253 0.9% 97%  
254 1.0% 96%  
255 1.2% 95%  
256 1.3% 94%  
257 0.7% 93%  
258 1.2% 92%  
259 0.6% 91%  
260 2% 90%  
261 1.1% 88%  
262 1.1% 87%  
263 3% 86%  
264 1.4% 83%  
265 2% 82%  
266 2% 80%  
267 2% 78%  
268 1.2% 75%  
269 2% 74%  
270 2% 72%  
271 2% 70%  
272 2% 67%  
273 2% 66%  
274 3% 64%  
275 2% 61%  
276 3% 59%  
277 5% 56%  
278 3% 50%  
279 3% 47%  
280 4% 44%  
281 1.1% 40% Median
282 2% 39%  
283 2% 37%  
284 2% 36%  
285 2% 33%  
286 2% 31%  
287 2% 29%  
288 1.4% 26%  
289 3% 25%  
290 2% 22%  
291 3% 20%  
292 2% 17%  
293 2% 15%  
294 1.4% 13%  
295 0.9% 11%  
296 1.1% 11%  
297 0.5% 9%  
298 1.3% 9%  
299 1.4% 8%  
300 2% 6%  
301 1.1% 5%  
302 0.6% 4%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
310 0.4% 1.0%  
311 0.2% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.2% 99.7%  
219 0.3% 99.5%  
220 0.2% 99.3%  
221 0.2% 99.1%  
222 0.4% 98.8%  
223 0.7% 98%  
224 0.6% 98%  
225 0.5% 97%  
226 0.4% 97%  
227 1.4% 96%  
228 1.4% 95%  
229 1.1% 93%  
230 2% 92%  
231 1.5% 91%  
232 2% 89%  
233 0.8% 87%  
234 0.8% 86%  
235 2% 86%  
236 2% 83%  
237 2% 81%  
238 2% 80%  
239 2% 78%  
240 3% 76%  
241 3% 73%  
242 2% 70%  
243 3% 68%  
244 2% 65%  
245 3% 63%  
246 2% 60%  
247 3% 57%  
248 3% 55%  
249 2% 52%  
250 4% 49%  
251 4% 45% Median
252 3% 41%  
253 2% 38%  
254 4% 36%  
255 2% 33%  
256 1.1% 31%  
257 4% 30%  
258 3% 25%  
259 1.0% 22%  
260 2% 21%  
261 3% 19%  
262 3% 17%  
263 2% 14%  
264 0.6% 12%  
265 1.2% 11%  
266 1.1% 10%  
267 1.2% 9%  
268 2% 8%  
269 0.8% 6%  
270 0.8% 5%  
271 0.7% 4%  
272 0.5% 3%  
273 0.8% 3%  
274 0.5% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.2% 1.3%  
277 0.2% 1.0%  
278 0.1% 0.8%  
279 0.2% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.4%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.2% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.6%  
218 0.2% 99.5%  
219 0.3% 99.3%  
220 0.6% 99.0%  
221 1.2% 98%  
222 0.7% 97%  
223 0.6% 97%  
224 1.0% 96%  
225 2% 95%  
226 1.0% 93%  
227 2% 92%  
228 1.4% 90%  
229 1.0% 89%  
230 1.2% 88%  
231 2% 86%  
232 2% 84%  
233 1.5% 82%  
234 3% 80%  
235 2% 78%  
236 2% 76%  
237 2% 74%  
238 2% 72%  
239 2% 71%  
240 2% 68%  
241 3% 67%  
242 5% 64%  
243 4% 59%  
244 3% 55%  
245 3% 51%  
246 3% 48% Median
247 2% 45%  
248 3% 43%  
249 2% 39%  
250 1.1% 37%  
251 4% 36%  
252 2% 32%  
253 2% 30%  
254 2% 28%  
255 3% 26%  
256 2% 23%  
257 1.0% 21%  
258 1.2% 20%  
259 4% 19%  
260 1.2% 15%  
261 1.5% 14%  
262 1.4% 13%  
263 1.2% 11%  
264 2% 10%  
265 0.8% 8%  
266 1.2% 7%  
267 0.8% 6%  
268 0.6% 5%  
269 0.9% 5%  
270 0.9% 4%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.3% 1.0%  
278 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
279 0.1% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.3%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
207 0% 100%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.6%  
213 0.1% 99.5%  
214 0.3% 99.4%  
215 0.3% 99.0%  
216 0.3% 98.7%  
217 0.4% 98%  
218 0.4% 98%  
219 0.9% 98%  
220 0.8% 97%  
221 1.0% 96%  
222 0.9% 95%  
223 2% 94%  
224 1.0% 92%  
225 1.3% 91%  
226 1.5% 90%  
227 0.7% 89%  
228 2% 88%  
229 2% 86%  
230 2% 84%  
231 2% 82%  
232 1.0% 80%  
233 1.1% 79%  
234 2% 78%  
235 2% 76%  
236 6% 74%  
237 2% 68%  
238 2% 66%  
239 2% 64%  
240 3% 62%  
241 3% 59%  
242 2% 55%  
243 3% 53%  
244 3% 51%  
245 4% 48%  
246 3% 43% Median
247 2% 40%  
248 3% 38%  
249 2% 35%  
250 4% 34%  
251 2% 30%  
252 3% 28%  
253 2% 24%  
254 2% 22%  
255 2% 20%  
256 2% 18%  
257 3% 16%  
258 2% 13%  
259 1.0% 12%  
260 0.6% 11%  
261 2% 10%  
262 0.8% 8%  
263 2% 8%  
264 1.0% 6%  
265 0.8% 5%  
266 1.0% 4%  
267 0.4% 3%  
268 0.5% 3%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.1% 1.2%  
272 0.3% 1.1%  
273 0.1% 0.8%  
274 0.2% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.4%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.8%  
210 0.1% 99.7%  
211 0.2% 99.6%  
212 0.2% 99.4%  
213 0.6% 99.2%  
214 0.5% 98.6%  
215 0.6% 98%  
216 0.5% 98%  
217 1.2% 97%  
218 0.7% 96%  
219 2% 95%  
220 1.1% 93%  
221 1.4% 92%  
222 2% 91%  
223 1.2% 89%  
224 1.3% 88%  
225 2% 87%  
226 2% 85%  
227 2% 83%  
228 3% 81%  
229 1.1% 78%  
230 3% 77%  
231 2% 74%  
232 2% 72%  
233 2% 71%  
234 2% 69%  
235 3% 67%  
236 3% 64%  
237 4% 61%  
238 3% 58%  
239 4% 54%  
240 2% 50%  
241 4% 48% Median
242 2% 44%  
243 3% 42%  
244 2% 39%  
245 3% 37%  
246 2% 34%  
247 3% 32%  
248 2% 29%  
249 1.0% 27%  
250 3% 26%  
251 2% 23%  
252 2% 21%  
253 2% 19%  
254 1.2% 17%  
255 3% 16%  
256 1.5% 14%  
257 1.2% 12%  
258 1.4% 11%  
259 1.1% 10%  
260 1.1% 8%  
261 1.1% 7%  
262 1.0% 6%  
263 0.8% 5%  
264 0.6% 5%  
265 0.9% 4%  
266 0.5% 3%  
267 0.3% 3%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.4% 1.5%  
272 0.2% 1.1%  
273 0.2% 0.9%  
274 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.5%  
277 0% 0.4%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.8%  
185 0.2% 99.7%  
186 0.4% 99.5%  
187 0.1% 99.1%  
188 0.4% 99.0%  
189 2% 98.6%  
190 2% 97%  
191 1.3% 95%  
192 0.7% 94%  
193 1.2% 93%  
194 2% 92%  
195 2% 90%  
196 1.3% 88%  
197 2% 87%  
198 1.3% 85%  
199 3% 83%  
200 3% 81%  
201 1.1% 78%  
202 3% 76%  
203 1.0% 73%  
204 2% 72%  
205 1.2% 70%  
206 2% 69%  
207 3% 67%  
208 3% 64%  
209 6% 62%  
210 6% 55%  
211 5% 50% Median
212 3% 45%  
213 3% 41%  
214 2% 38%  
215 1.3% 37%  
216 4% 35%  
217 2% 32%  
218 2% 29%  
219 0.8% 27%  
220 3% 27%  
221 4% 24%  
222 4% 19%  
223 0.8% 16%  
224 0.5% 15%  
225 0.4% 14%  
226 2% 14%  
227 2% 12%  
228 2% 10%  
229 1.4% 8%  
230 0.7% 6%  
231 0.8% 6%  
232 1.1% 5%  
233 0.8% 4%  
234 0.4% 3%  
235 0.3% 2%  
236 0.2% 2%  
237 0.2% 2%  
238 0.6% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.1%  
240 0.2% 0.8%  
241 0.1% 0.7%  
242 0.1% 0.6%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0.1% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.2% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.6%  
180 0.2% 99.5%  
181 0.8% 99.3%  
182 0.6% 98%  
183 0.7% 98%  
184 0.8% 97%  
185 2% 96%  
186 2% 95%  
187 0.9% 93%  
188 1.3% 92%  
189 1.4% 91%  
190 2% 89%  
191 1.2% 87%  
192 0.9% 86%  
193 3% 85%  
194 3% 82%  
195 4% 79%  
196 1.2% 75%  
197 2% 74%  
198 0.5% 72%  
199 2% 71%  
200 2% 69%  
201 2% 67%  
202 4% 65%  
203 2% 61%  
204 4% 59%  
205 4% 55%  
206 5% 50% Median
207 5% 45%  
208 2% 41%  
209 4% 39%  
210 1.1% 35%  
211 3% 34%  
212 3% 31%  
213 2% 28%  
214 1.3% 26%  
215 1.1% 25%  
216 5% 24%  
217 2% 19%  
218 2% 16%  
219 1.0% 14%  
220 0.6% 13%  
221 0.8% 13%  
222 2% 12%  
223 2% 10%  
224 2% 8%  
225 1.1% 7%  
226 0.5% 5%  
227 1.3% 5%  
228 0.8% 4%  
229 0.3% 3%  
230 0.4% 3%  
231 0.2% 2%  
232 0.3% 2%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.2% 1.1%  
235 0.2% 0.9%  
236 0.1% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0.1% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations