Opinion Poll by Survation for Good Morning Britain, 20–23 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 40.2% 38.2–42.2% 37.7–42.8% 37.2–43.3% 36.3–44.2%
Labour Party 41.0% 29.4% 27.6–31.3% 27.1–31.8% 26.7–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.0–16.7% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.8%
Brexit Party 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 351 323–373 318–378 313–383 302–397
Labour Party 262 195 177–219 173–224 168–230 155–241
Liberal Democrats 12 39 33–47 32–48 31–50 30–52
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 39 31–48 22–50 16–51 5–53
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 6 4–10 4–11 3–11 3–12

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.2% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.2% 98.9%  
307 0.1% 98.7%  
308 0.2% 98.6%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0.4% 98%  
314 0.2% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.9% 96% Last Result
318 0.6% 95%  
319 1.1% 95%  
320 1.4% 93%  
321 0.8% 92%  
322 1.3% 91%  
323 0.9% 90%  
324 0.9% 89%  
325 0.5% 88%  
326 1.3% 88% Majority
327 0.8% 86%  
328 0.5% 86%  
329 0.9% 85%  
330 0.6% 84%  
331 0.4% 84%  
332 0.7% 83%  
333 0.6% 82%  
334 1.1% 82%  
335 1.2% 81%  
336 2% 80%  
337 2% 78%  
338 2% 76%  
339 2% 73%  
340 2% 71%  
341 2% 69%  
342 3% 67%  
343 3% 64%  
344 1.1% 61%  
345 3% 60%  
346 1.0% 58%  
347 2% 57%  
348 2% 55%  
349 1.0% 52%  
350 0.9% 51%  
351 0.9% 51% Median
352 1.5% 50%  
353 1.0% 48%  
354 1.5% 47%  
355 1.2% 46%  
356 2% 44%  
357 2% 42%  
358 2% 40%  
359 2% 38%  
360 5% 36%  
361 1.3% 31%  
362 2% 30%  
363 2% 27%  
364 2% 25%  
365 2% 23%  
366 3% 21%  
367 1.2% 18%  
368 1.3% 17%  
369 0.9% 15%  
370 2% 15%  
371 1.0% 13%  
372 1.1% 12%  
373 1.2% 11%  
374 1.2% 10%  
375 2% 9%  
376 1.0% 7%  
377 0.6% 6%  
378 0.9% 5%  
379 0.5% 4%  
380 0.5% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.1% 2%  
388 0.1% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.5%  
390 0.1% 1.3%  
391 0.1% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 0.9%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0% 0.4%  
399 0% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.5%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 0.1% 99.3%  
159 0.1% 99.2%  
160 0.1% 99.2%  
161 0.2% 99.1%  
162 0.1% 98.9%  
163 0.1% 98.8%  
164 0.2% 98.6%  
165 0.2% 98%  
166 0.2% 98%  
167 0.3% 98%  
168 0.2% 98%  
169 0.4% 97%  
170 0.6% 97%  
171 0.5% 96%  
172 0.5% 96%  
173 1.3% 95%  
174 0.7% 94%  
175 0.8% 93%  
176 1.3% 93%  
177 2% 91%  
178 2% 89%  
179 1.3% 88%  
180 3% 86%  
181 4% 84%  
182 2% 80%  
183 2% 78%  
184 4% 76%  
185 4% 72%  
186 3% 68%  
187 2% 66%  
188 2% 64%  
189 2% 62%  
190 1.5% 59%  
191 2% 58%  
192 0.9% 56%  
193 1.5% 55%  
194 3% 54%  
195 2% 51% Median
196 2% 49%  
197 2% 47%  
198 3% 45%  
199 0.9% 43%  
200 0.9% 42%  
201 2% 41%  
202 2% 38%  
203 4% 36%  
204 2% 32%  
205 3% 31%  
206 2% 27%  
207 2% 25%  
208 0.8% 23%  
209 0.5% 23%  
210 1.0% 22%  
211 2% 21%  
212 2% 19%  
213 1.3% 17%  
214 0.4% 15%  
215 1.3% 15%  
216 1.1% 14%  
217 1.0% 13%  
218 1.0% 12%  
219 0.9% 11%  
220 0.5% 10%  
221 2% 9%  
222 0.7% 7%  
223 0.9% 7%  
224 1.1% 6%  
225 0.3% 5%  
226 0.6% 4%  
227 0.3% 4%  
228 0.3% 4%  
229 0.5% 3%  
230 0.4% 3%  
231 0.1% 2%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.2% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.3%  
235 0.1% 1.1%  
236 0.1% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.8%  
238 0% 0.7%  
239 0.1% 0.7%  
240 0.1% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0% 0.5%  
243 0% 0.4%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.4%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.4% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.5%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 3% 92%  
34 4% 89%  
35 7% 86%  
36 8% 79%  
37 8% 71%  
38 7% 63%  
39 6% 56% Median
40 5% 49%  
41 5% 44%  
42 8% 39%  
43 7% 31%  
44 6% 25%  
45 4% 18%  
46 3% 14%  
47 3% 11%  
48 3% 8%  
49 2% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.8% 1.4%  
52 0.1% 0.6%  
53 0% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.7%  
4 0.1% 99.6%  
5 0.1% 99.6%  
6 0.2% 99.4%  
7 0.1% 99.3%  
8 0.1% 99.2%  
9 0.1% 99.1%  
10 0.1% 99.0%  
11 0.1% 98.9%  
12 0.1% 98.8%  
13 0.4% 98.7%  
14 0.1% 98%  
15 0.3% 98%  
16 0.4% 98%  
17 0.9% 97%  
18 0.2% 97%  
19 0.7% 96%  
20 0.2% 96%  
21 0.1% 95%  
22 0.4% 95%  
23 0.5% 95%  
24 0.2% 94%  
25 0.4% 94%  
26 0.3% 94%  
27 0.3% 94%  
28 1.3% 93%  
29 0.5% 92%  
30 0.7% 92%  
31 1.2% 91%  
32 3% 90%  
33 12% 87%  
34 1.0% 75%  
35 8% 74% Last Result
36 1.4% 66%  
37 2% 64%  
38 2% 63%  
39 11% 60% Median
40 4% 50%  
41 11% 46%  
42 3% 35%  
43 2% 32%  
44 0.7% 30%  
45 9% 29%  
46 0.3% 20%  
47 7% 20%  
48 5% 13%  
49 0.2% 9%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0% 0.6%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
2 1.0% 1.0%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 38% 97% Last Result
5 7% 58%  
6 3% 51% Median
7 3% 47%  
8 27% 44%  
9 7% 17%  
10 5% 11%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.7% 1.1%  
13 0.2% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 397 100% 370–416 364–422 358–426 347–439
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 391 100% 365–411 359–415 355–420 346–434
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 390 99.9% 364–410 358–414 352–418 341–432
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 358 93% 328–380 323–385 318–390 307–404
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 351 88% 323–373 318–378 313–383 302–397
Conservative Party 317 351 88% 323–373 318–378 313–383 302–397
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 281 1.3% 259–309 254–314 249–319 235–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 280 1.1% 258–308 253–313 248–318 234–329
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 273 0.3% 251–303 246–308 241–313 227–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 241 0% 221–267 217–273 213–279 199–290
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 240 0% 220–266 216–272 211–276 197–285
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 234 0% 215–261 209–267 205–273 192–284
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 233 0% 213–259 209–266 203–271 189–280
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 201 0% 185–226 181–230 175–236 163–246
Labour Party 262 195 0% 177–219 173–224 168–230 155–241

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.7%  
342 0% 99.7%  
343 0% 99.7%  
344 0% 99.6%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0% 99.6%  
347 0.1% 99.5%  
348 0.1% 99.4%  
349 0.1% 99.4%  
350 0.1% 99.3%  
351 0.1% 99.2%  
352 0.3% 99.1%  
353 0.1% 98.8%  
354 0.3% 98.7%  
355 0.2% 98%  
356 0.2% 98% Last Result
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.2% 98%  
359 0.3% 97%  
360 0.3% 97%  
361 0.4% 97%  
362 0.8% 96%  
363 0.6% 96%  
364 0.5% 95%  
365 0.4% 95%  
366 1.2% 94%  
367 0.8% 93%  
368 0.7% 92%  
369 0.3% 92%  
370 2% 91%  
371 1.0% 89%  
372 1.1% 88%  
373 0.9% 87%  
374 0.7% 86%  
375 1.0% 86%  
376 2% 85%  
377 0.9% 83%  
378 0.7% 82%  
379 0.4% 81%  
380 1.0% 81%  
381 1.4% 80%  
382 1.4% 78%  
383 2% 77%  
384 2% 74%  
385 4% 72%  
386 1.4% 68%  
387 1.2% 67%  
388 1.1% 66%  
389 2% 65%  
390 1.4% 62%  
391 2% 61%  
392 1.0% 59%  
393 3% 58%  
394 2% 54%  
395 1.4% 52%  
396 0.8% 51% Median
397 2% 50%  
398 1.0% 48%  
399 3% 47%  
400 2% 44%  
401 2% 42%  
402 2% 40%  
403 2% 38%  
404 1.3% 35%  
405 2% 34%  
406 3% 32%  
407 1.3% 29%  
408 3% 28%  
409 2% 25%  
410 3% 23%  
411 1.3% 20%  
412 2% 19%  
413 2% 17%  
414 2% 15%  
415 2% 13%  
416 2% 12%  
417 1.2% 9%  
418 0.6% 8%  
419 0.6% 8%  
420 1.1% 7%  
421 0.9% 6%  
422 0.9% 5%  
423 0.8% 4%  
424 0.4% 3%  
425 0.3% 3%  
426 0.4% 3%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0.3% 2%  
429 0.2% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.2% 1.4%  
432 0.1% 1.2%  
433 0.1% 1.1%  
434 0.1% 0.9%  
435 0.1% 0.9%  
436 0.1% 0.8%  
437 0.2% 0.7%  
438 0.1% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.8%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.1% 99.3%  
348 0.2% 99.2%  
349 0.1% 99.0%  
350 0.1% 98.9%  
351 0.2% 98.8%  
352 0.2% 98.6%  
353 0.4% 98%  
354 0.3% 98%  
355 0.8% 98%  
356 0.5% 97%  
357 0.9% 96%  
358 0.3% 96%  
359 1.1% 95%  
360 0.3% 94%  
361 0.7% 94%  
362 0.8% 93%  
363 0.7% 92%  
364 1.1% 92%  
365 0.8% 91%  
366 0.7% 90%  
367 0.7% 89%  
368 0.5% 88%  
369 2% 88%  
370 1.1% 86%  
371 1.2% 85%  
372 0.9% 83%  
373 1.0% 83%  
374 2% 82%  
375 2% 80%  
376 1.2% 78%  
377 2% 77%  
378 0.9% 74%  
379 1.4% 73%  
380 2% 72%  
381 1.2% 70%  
382 3% 69%  
383 2% 66%  
384 2% 64%  
385 2% 62%  
386 2% 60%  
387 1.4% 58%  
388 0.8% 57%  
389 3% 56%  
390 2% 53% Median
391 2% 51%  
392 2% 49%  
393 2% 47%  
394 3% 45%  
395 1.0% 42%  
396 3% 41%  
397 2% 38%  
398 2% 36%  
399 3% 34%  
400 2% 32%  
401 3% 30%  
402 1.2% 28%  
403 3% 26%  
404 2% 24%  
405 2% 22%  
406 2% 20%  
407 2% 18%  
408 2% 16%  
409 2% 14%  
410 1.2% 12%  
411 0.7% 10%  
412 1.4% 10%  
413 2% 8%  
414 1.1% 7%  
415 0.7% 6%  
416 0.8% 5%  
417 0.4% 4%  
418 0.3% 4%  
419 0.6% 3%  
420 0.4% 3%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.3% 2%  
425 0.1% 2%  
426 0.1% 1.5%  
427 0.3% 1.4%  
428 0.1% 1.1%  
429 0.2% 1.0%  
430 0.1% 0.8%  
431 0% 0.7%  
432 0.1% 0.7%  
433 0.1% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.4%  
436 0% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.7%  
336 0% 99.7%  
337 0% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.7%  
339 0% 99.6%  
340 0.1% 99.6%  
341 0% 99.5%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.4%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.2% 99.2%  
347 0.2% 99.0%  
348 0.4% 98.9%  
349 0.1% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.2% 98%  
352 0.3% 98% Last Result
353 0.4% 97%  
354 0.4% 97%  
355 0.4% 97%  
356 0.3% 96%  
357 0.3% 96%  
358 0.7% 96%  
359 0.3% 95%  
360 1.3% 95%  
361 0.7% 93%  
362 0.6% 93%  
363 0.9% 92%  
364 2% 91%  
365 1.3% 89%  
366 1.5% 88%  
367 1.3% 87%  
368 1.1% 85%  
369 0.9% 84%  
370 0.5% 83%  
371 0.5% 83%  
372 2% 82%  
373 1.0% 81%  
374 0.4% 80%  
375 1.1% 79%  
376 0.7% 78%  
377 1.5% 78%  
378 2% 76%  
379 2% 74%  
380 3% 73%  
381 4% 70%  
382 2% 66%  
383 2% 64%  
384 3% 62%  
385 2% 59%  
386 2% 57%  
387 2% 55%  
388 0.9% 53%  
389 2% 52%  
390 1.3% 50% Median
391 2% 49%  
392 1.1% 47%  
393 3% 46%  
394 1.0% 43%  
395 2% 42%  
396 2% 40%  
397 1.1% 38%  
398 3% 37%  
399 3% 34%  
400 3% 31%  
401 3% 28%  
402 3% 25%  
403 1.4% 22%  
404 2% 21%  
405 3% 19%  
406 2% 16%  
407 0.8% 14%  
408 2% 13%  
409 1.1% 12%  
410 1.0% 10%  
411 2% 9%  
412 1.0% 7%  
413 1.1% 6%  
414 0.8% 5%  
415 0.6% 4%  
416 0.5% 4%  
417 0.4% 3%  
418 0.2% 3%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.1% 1.4%  
425 0.1% 1.3%  
426 0.2% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 1.0%  
428 0.1% 0.9%  
429 0% 0.7%  
430 0% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.6%  
433 0.2% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.1% 99.4%  
309 0% 99.3%  
310 0.1% 99.2%  
311 0% 99.1%  
312 0.2% 99.1%  
313 0.2% 98.8%  
314 0.3% 98.6%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.4% 98%  
318 0.3% 98%  
319 0.5% 97%  
320 0.2% 97%  
321 0.3% 97% Last Result
322 1.3% 96%  
323 0.3% 95%  
324 0.7% 95%  
325 0.8% 94%  
326 0.7% 93% Majority
327 0.8% 93%  
328 2% 92%  
329 0.3% 90%  
330 0.8% 90%  
331 0.5% 89%  
332 0.6% 88%  
333 0.7% 88%  
334 1.0% 87%  
335 0.9% 86%  
336 0.8% 85%  
337 1.3% 84%  
338 1.1% 83%  
339 1.1% 82%  
340 2% 81%  
341 2% 79%  
342 2% 77%  
343 1.2% 75%  
344 3% 74%  
345 1.0% 71%  
346 3% 71%  
347 1.3% 68%  
348 3% 66%  
349 2% 64%  
350 1.0% 62%  
351 2% 61%  
352 2% 59%  
353 1.1% 57%  
354 1.5% 56%  
355 1.5% 55%  
356 2% 53%  
357 1.1% 51% Median
358 2% 50%  
359 1.1% 49%  
360 3% 47%  
361 1.5% 45%  
362 1.2% 43%  
363 1.2% 42%  
364 3% 41%  
365 2% 37%  
366 2% 36%  
367 3% 34%  
368 3% 31%  
369 2% 28%  
370 1.3% 26%  
371 2% 25%  
372 2% 23%  
373 2% 21%  
374 2% 19%  
375 2% 17%  
376 1.0% 15%  
377 1.0% 14%  
378 0.9% 13%  
379 2% 12%  
380 0.8% 10%  
381 2% 10%  
382 0.8% 8%  
383 1.2% 7%  
384 0.7% 6%  
385 0.5% 5%  
386 0.5% 5%  
387 0.6% 4%  
388 0.7% 4%  
389 0.4% 3%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.2% 2%  
395 0.1% 1.5%  
396 0.1% 1.4%  
397 0.1% 1.2%  
398 0.1% 1.1%  
399 0.1% 1.0%  
400 0.2% 0.9%  
401 0.1% 0.8%  
402 0.1% 0.7%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0% 0.4%  
407 0% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.3%  
409 0% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.2% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.2% 98.9%  
307 0.1% 98.7%  
308 0.2% 98.6%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0.4% 98%  
314 0.2% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.9% 96% Last Result
318 0.6% 95%  
319 1.1% 95%  
320 1.4% 93%  
321 0.8% 92%  
322 1.3% 91%  
323 0.9% 90%  
324 0.9% 89%  
325 0.5% 88%  
326 1.3% 88% Majority
327 0.8% 86%  
328 0.5% 86%  
329 0.9% 85%  
330 0.6% 84%  
331 0.4% 84%  
332 0.7% 83%  
333 0.6% 82%  
334 1.1% 82%  
335 1.2% 81%  
336 2% 80%  
337 2% 78%  
338 2% 76%  
339 2% 73%  
340 2% 71%  
341 2% 69%  
342 3% 67%  
343 3% 64%  
344 1.1% 61%  
345 3% 60%  
346 1.0% 58%  
347 2% 57%  
348 2% 55%  
349 1.0% 52%  
350 0.9% 51%  
351 0.9% 51% Median
352 1.5% 50%  
353 1.0% 48%  
354 1.5% 47%  
355 1.2% 46%  
356 2% 44%  
357 2% 42%  
358 2% 40%  
359 2% 38%  
360 5% 36%  
361 1.3% 31%  
362 2% 30%  
363 2% 27%  
364 2% 25%  
365 2% 23%  
366 3% 21%  
367 1.2% 18%  
368 1.3% 17%  
369 0.9% 15%  
370 2% 15%  
371 1.0% 13%  
372 1.1% 12%  
373 1.2% 11%  
374 1.2% 10%  
375 2% 9%  
376 1.0% 7%  
377 0.6% 6%  
378 0.9% 5%  
379 0.5% 4%  
380 0.5% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.1% 2%  
388 0.1% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.5%  
390 0.1% 1.3%  
391 0.1% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 0.9%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0% 0.4%  
399 0% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.2% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.2% 98.9%  
307 0.1% 98.7%  
308 0.2% 98.6%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0.4% 98%  
314 0.2% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.9% 96% Last Result
318 0.6% 95%  
319 1.1% 95%  
320 1.4% 93%  
321 0.8% 92%  
322 1.3% 91%  
323 0.9% 90%  
324 0.9% 89%  
325 0.5% 88%  
326 1.3% 88% Majority
327 0.8% 86%  
328 0.5% 86%  
329 0.9% 85%  
330 0.6% 84%  
331 0.4% 84%  
332 0.7% 83%  
333 0.6% 82%  
334 1.1% 82%  
335 1.2% 81%  
336 2% 80%  
337 2% 78%  
338 2% 76%  
339 2% 73%  
340 2% 71%  
341 2% 69%  
342 3% 67%  
343 3% 64%  
344 1.1% 61%  
345 3% 60%  
346 1.0% 58%  
347 2% 57%  
348 2% 55%  
349 1.0% 52%  
350 0.9% 51%  
351 0.9% 51% Median
352 1.5% 50%  
353 1.0% 48%  
354 1.5% 47%  
355 1.2% 46%  
356 2% 44%  
357 2% 42%  
358 2% 40%  
359 2% 38%  
360 5% 36%  
361 1.3% 31%  
362 2% 30%  
363 2% 27%  
364 2% 25%  
365 2% 23%  
366 3% 21%  
367 1.2% 18%  
368 1.3% 17%  
369 0.9% 15%  
370 2% 15%  
371 1.0% 13%  
372 1.1% 12%  
373 1.2% 11%  
374 1.2% 10%  
375 2% 9%  
376 1.0% 7%  
377 0.6% 6%  
378 0.9% 5%  
379 0.5% 4%  
380 0.5% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.1% 2%  
388 0.1% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.5%  
390 0.1% 1.3%  
391 0.1% 1.2%  
392 0.1% 1.1%  
393 0.1% 0.9%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.5%  
398 0% 0.4%  
399 0% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.1% 99.3%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.1% 99.1%  
241 0.1% 98.9%  
242 0.1% 98.8%  
243 0.2% 98.7%  
244 0.1% 98.5%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.2% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.3% 97%  
251 0.4% 97%  
252 0.5% 97%  
253 0.5% 96%  
254 0.9% 96%  
255 0.6% 95%  
256 1.0% 94%  
257 2% 93%  
258 1.2% 91%  
259 1.2% 90%  
260 1.1% 89%  
261 1.0% 88%  
262 2% 87%  
263 0.9% 85%  
264 1.3% 85%  
265 1.2% 83%  
266 3% 82%  
267 2% 79%  
268 2% 77%  
269 2% 75%  
270 2% 73%  
271 1.3% 70%  
272 5% 69%  
273 2% 64%  
274 2% 62%  
275 2% 60%  
276 2% 58%  
277 1.2% 56%  
278 1.5% 54%  
279 1.0% 53%  
280 1.5% 52% Median
281 0.9% 50%  
282 0.9% 49%  
283 1.0% 49%  
284 2% 48%  
285 2% 45%  
286 1.0% 43%  
287 3% 42%  
288 1.1% 40%  
289 3% 39%  
290 3% 36%  
291 2% 33%  
292 2% 31%  
293 2% 29%  
294 2% 27%  
295 2% 24%  
296 2% 22%  
297 1.2% 20%  
298 1.1% 19%  
299 0.6% 18%  
300 0.7% 18%  
301 0.4% 17%  
302 0.6% 16%  
303 0.9% 16%  
304 0.5% 15%  
305 0.8% 14%  
306 1.3% 14%  
307 0.5% 12%  
308 0.9% 12%  
309 0.9% 11%  
310 1.3% 10%  
311 0.8% 9%  
312 1.4% 8%  
313 1.1% 7%  
314 0.6% 5% Last Result
315 0.9% 5%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 0.4% 3%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.4%  
326 0.2% 1.3% Majority
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.6%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0.1% 99.2%  
239 0.1% 99.1%  
240 0.1% 98.9%  
241 0.1% 98.8%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.1% 98.5%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.2% 98%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.3% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.4% 97%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.9% 96%  
254 0.6% 95%  
255 0.9% 94%  
256 2% 93%  
257 1.2% 91%  
258 1.2% 90%  
259 1.1% 89%  
260 1.0% 88%  
261 2% 87%  
262 0.9% 85%  
263 1.3% 85%  
264 1.2% 83%  
265 3% 82%  
266 2% 79%  
267 2% 77%  
268 2% 75%  
269 2% 73%  
270 1.3% 70%  
271 5% 69%  
272 2% 64%  
273 2% 62%  
274 2% 60%  
275 2% 58%  
276 1.2% 56%  
277 1.5% 54%  
278 1.0% 53%  
279 1.5% 52% Median
280 0.9% 50%  
281 0.9% 49%  
282 1.0% 49%  
283 2% 48%  
284 2% 45%  
285 1.0% 43%  
286 3% 42%  
287 1.1% 40%  
288 3% 39%  
289 3% 36%  
290 2% 33%  
291 2% 31%  
292 2% 29%  
293 2% 27%  
294 2% 24%  
295 2% 22%  
296 1.2% 20%  
297 1.1% 19%  
298 0.6% 18%  
299 0.7% 18%  
300 0.4% 17%  
301 0.6% 16%  
302 1.0% 16%  
303 0.5% 15%  
304 0.8% 14%  
305 1.3% 14%  
306 0.5% 12%  
307 0.9% 12%  
308 0.9% 11%  
309 1.3% 10%  
310 0.8% 9%  
311 1.4% 8%  
312 1.1% 7%  
313 0.6% 5% Last Result
314 0.9% 5%  
315 0.7% 4%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.4%  
325 0.2% 1.3%  
326 0.2% 1.1% Majority
327 0.2% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0% 99.7%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.6%  
227 0.1% 99.5%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.1% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.3%  
231 0.2% 99.2%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 0.1% 98.9%  
235 0.1% 98.8%  
236 0.1% 98.6%  
237 0.2% 98.5%  
238 0.3% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.3% 98%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.4% 97%  
243 0.7% 97%  
244 0.6% 96%  
245 0.5% 96%  
246 0.5% 95%  
247 0.7% 95%  
248 1.2% 94%  
249 0.8% 93%  
250 2% 92%  
251 0.8% 90%  
252 2% 90%  
253 0.9% 88%  
254 1.0% 87%  
255 1.0% 86%  
256 2% 85%  
257 2% 83%  
258 2% 81%  
259 2% 79%  
260 2% 77%  
261 1.3% 75%  
262 2% 74%  
263 3% 72%  
264 3% 69%  
265 2% 66%  
266 2% 64%  
267 3% 63%  
268 1.2% 59%  
269 1.2% 58%  
270 1.5% 57%  
271 3% 55%  
272 1.1% 53%  
273 2% 51% Median
274 1.0% 50%  
275 2% 49%  
276 1.5% 47%  
277 1.5% 45%  
278 1.1% 44%  
279 2% 43%  
280 2% 41%  
281 1.0% 39%  
282 2% 38%  
283 3% 36%  
284 1.3% 34%  
285 3% 32%  
286 1.0% 29%  
287 3% 29%  
288 1.2% 26%  
289 2% 25%  
290 2% 23%  
291 2% 21%  
292 1.1% 19%  
293 1.1% 18%  
294 1.3% 17%  
295 0.8% 16%  
296 0.9% 15%  
297 1.0% 14%  
298 0.7% 13%  
299 0.6% 12%  
300 0.6% 12%  
301 0.7% 11%  
302 0.4% 10%  
303 2% 10%  
304 0.8% 8%  
305 0.7% 7%  
306 0.8% 7%  
307 0.7% 6%  
308 0.3% 5%  
309 1.3% 5% Last Result
310 0.3% 4%  
311 0.2% 3%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.3% 3%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.4%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.9%  
322 0% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.7%  
199 0.1% 99.5%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0% 99.4%  
202 0% 99.3%  
203 0.1% 99.3%  
204 0.1% 99.1%  
205 0.2% 99.0%  
206 0.1% 98.8%  
207 0.1% 98.7%  
208 0.2% 98.6%  
209 0.2% 98%  
210 0.1% 98%  
211 0.3% 98%  
212 0.3% 98%  
213 0.2% 98%  
214 0.4% 97%  
215 0.5% 97%  
216 0.6% 96%  
217 0.8% 96%  
218 1.1% 95%  
219 1.0% 94%  
220 2% 93%  
221 1.0% 91%  
222 1.1% 90%  
223 2% 88%  
224 0.8% 87%  
225 2% 86%  
226 3% 84%  
227 2% 81%  
228 1.3% 79%  
229 3% 78%  
230 3% 75%  
231 3% 72%  
232 3% 69%  
233 3% 66%  
234 1.1% 63%  
235 2% 62%  
236 2% 60%  
237 1.0% 58%  
238 3% 57%  
239 1.1% 54%  
240 2% 53% Median
241 1.3% 51%  
242 2% 50%  
243 0.9% 48%  
244 2% 47%  
245 2% 45%  
246 2% 43%  
247 3% 41%  
248 2% 38%  
249 2% 36%  
250 4% 34%  
251 3% 30%  
252 2% 27%  
253 2% 26%  
254 2% 24%  
255 0.6% 22%  
256 1.1% 22%  
257 0.4% 21%  
258 1.0% 20%  
259 2% 19%  
260 0.5% 18%  
261 0.6% 17%  
262 0.8% 16%  
263 1.1% 16%  
264 1.3% 15%  
265 1.5% 13%  
266 1.3% 12%  
267 2% 10%  
268 0.9% 9%  
269 0.6% 8%  
270 0.7% 7%  
271 1.3% 7%  
272 0.3% 5%  
273 0.7% 5%  
274 0.3% 4%  
275 0.4% 4%  
276 0.4% 4%  
277 0.4% 3%  
278 0.4% 3% Last Result
279 0.3% 3%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.5%  
284 0.2% 1.1%  
285 0.2% 1.0%  
286 0.1% 0.8%  
287 0.1% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.6%  
290 0% 0.5%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0% 0.4%  
293 0% 0.4%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.6%  
196 0.1% 99.6%  
197 0.1% 99.6%  
198 0.1% 99.5%  
199 0.1% 99.4%  
200 0% 99.3%  
201 0.1% 99.3%  
202 0.2% 99.2%  
203 0.1% 99.0%  
204 0.3% 98.9%  
205 0.1% 98.6%  
206 0.1% 98.5%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 0.2% 98%  
209 0.2% 98%  
210 0.2% 98%  
211 0.4% 98%  
212 0.6% 97%  
213 0.3% 97%  
214 0.4% 96%  
215 0.8% 96%  
216 0.6% 95%  
217 1.1% 94%  
218 2% 93%  
219 1.4% 92%  
220 0.7% 90%  
221 1.2% 90%  
222 2% 88%  
223 2% 86%  
224 2% 84%  
225 2% 82%  
226 2% 80%  
227 2% 78%  
228 3% 76%  
229 1.2% 74%  
230 3% 72%  
231 2% 70%  
232 3% 68%  
233 2% 66%  
234 2% 64%  
235 3% 62%  
236 1.0% 59%  
237 3% 58%  
238 2% 55%  
239 2% 53%  
240 2% 51% Median
241 2% 49%  
242 3% 47%  
243 0.8% 44%  
244 1.3% 43%  
245 2% 42%  
246 2% 40%  
247 2% 38%  
248 2% 36%  
249 3% 34%  
250 1.2% 31%  
251 2% 30%  
252 1.4% 28%  
253 0.9% 27%  
254 2% 26%  
255 1.2% 23%  
256 2% 22%  
257 2% 20%  
258 1.0% 18%  
259 0.9% 17%  
260 1.2% 17%  
261 1.1% 15%  
262 2% 14%  
263 0.5% 12%  
264 0.7% 12%  
265 0.7% 11%  
266 0.9% 10%  
267 1.0% 9%  
268 0.8% 8%  
269 0.8% 8%  
270 0.7% 7%  
271 0.3% 6%  
272 1.1% 6%  
273 0.3% 5%  
274 0.9% 4%  
275 0.5% 4%  
276 0.8% 3%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.3% 2%  
279 0.2% 2%  
280 0.2% 1.4%  
281 0.1% 1.2%  
282 0.1% 1.1%  
283 0.2% 1.0%  
284 0.1% 0.8%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0.1% 99.8%  
189 0.1% 99.7%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 99.6%  
192 0.1% 99.5%  
193 0.1% 99.5%  
194 0.2% 99.4%  
195 0.1% 99.3%  
196 0.1% 99.2%  
197 0.1% 99.1%  
198 0.1% 99.1%  
199 0.1% 98.9%  
200 0.2% 98.8%  
201 0.2% 98.6%  
202 0.2% 98%  
203 0.3% 98%  
204 0.3% 98%  
205 0.4% 98%  
206 0.3% 97%  
207 0.4% 97%  
208 0.8% 97%  
209 0.9% 96%  
210 0.9% 95%  
211 1.1% 94%  
212 0.6% 93%  
213 0.6% 92%  
214 1.2% 92%  
215 2% 91%  
216 2% 88%  
217 2% 86%  
218 2% 85%  
219 2% 83%  
220 1.3% 81%  
221 3% 80%  
222 2% 77%  
223 3% 75%  
224 1.3% 72%  
225 3% 71%  
226 2% 68%  
227 1.3% 66%  
228 2% 65%  
229 2% 62%  
230 2% 60%  
231 2% 58%  
232 3% 56%  
233 1.0% 53%  
234 2% 52% Median
235 0.8% 50%  
236 1.5% 49%  
237 2% 48%  
238 3% 46%  
239 1.1% 42%  
240 2% 41%  
241 1.4% 39%  
242 2% 38%  
243 1.1% 35%  
244 1.2% 34%  
245 1.4% 33%  
246 4% 32%  
247 2% 28%  
248 2% 26%  
249 1.4% 23%  
250 1.4% 22%  
251 1.0% 20%  
252 0.4% 19%  
253 0.7% 19%  
254 0.9% 18%  
255 2% 17%  
256 1.0% 15%  
257 0.7% 14%  
258 0.9% 14%  
259 1.1% 13%  
260 1.0% 12%  
261 2% 11%  
262 0.3% 9%  
263 0.7% 8%  
264 0.8% 8%  
265 1.2% 7%  
266 0.4% 6%  
267 0.5% 5%  
268 0.6% 5%  
269 0.8% 4%  
270 0.4% 4%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.2% 3%  
274 0.2% 2% Last Result
275 0.2% 2%  
276 0.2% 2%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.1% 1.3%  
279 0.3% 1.2%  
280 0.1% 0.9%  
281 0.1% 0.8%  
282 0.1% 0.7%  
283 0.1% 0.6%  
284 0.1% 0.6%  
285 0% 0.5%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0% 0.4%  
288 0% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0% 99.6%  
189 0.1% 99.5%  
190 0% 99.4%  
191 0% 99.4%  
192 0% 99.4%  
193 0.1% 99.4%  
194 0.1% 99.3%  
195 0.1% 99.2%  
196 0.1% 99.1%  
197 0.2% 99.0%  
198 0.3% 98.8%  
199 0.2% 98%  
200 0.2% 98%  
201 0.1% 98%  
202 0.1% 98%  
203 0.5% 98%  
204 0.6% 97%  
205 0.3% 97%  
206 0.2% 96%  
207 0.4% 96%  
208 0.6% 96%  
209 1.0% 95%  
210 1.2% 94%  
211 1.3% 93%  
212 0.8% 92%  
213 2% 91%  
214 2% 89%  
215 1.3% 87%  
216 0.5% 86%  
217 1.1% 85%  
218 2% 84%  
219 2% 83%  
220 4% 81%  
221 3% 77%  
222 3% 74%  
223 2% 71%  
224 1.1% 69%  
225 0.7% 68%  
226 2% 68%  
227 2% 66%  
228 3% 64%  
229 3% 61%  
230 3% 58%  
231 2% 55%  
232 2% 53%  
233 1.5% 51%  
234 2% 50% Median
235 1.2% 48%  
236 2% 47%  
237 2% 45%  
238 3% 43%  
239 1.0% 41%  
240 1.4% 40%  
241 1.0% 39%  
242 2% 38%  
243 4% 35%  
244 0.9% 32%  
245 3% 31%  
246 1.2% 28%  
247 2% 27%  
248 2% 25%  
249 0.8% 23%  
250 2% 22%  
251 0.6% 20%  
252 2% 20%  
253 1.2% 18%  
254 2% 16%  
255 0.7% 15%  
256 2% 14%  
257 1.0% 13%  
258 1.2% 12%  
259 0.8% 10%  
260 0.7% 10%  
261 1.2% 9%  
262 0.4% 8%  
263 0.4% 7%  
264 0.6% 7%  
265 0.9% 6%  
266 0.6% 6%  
267 0.4% 5%  
268 0.6% 5%  
269 1.0% 4%  
270 0.2% 3%  
271 0.7% 3%  
272 0.3% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.1% 1.5%  
275 0.2% 1.3%  
276 0.1% 1.1%  
277 0.3% 1.0%  
278 0.1% 0.8%  
279 0.2% 0.7%  
280 0.1% 0.5%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0% 99.6%  
162 0% 99.6%  
163 0.1% 99.5%  
164 0.1% 99.5%  
165 0.1% 99.4%  
166 0.2% 99.2%  
167 0.1% 99.1%  
168 0.1% 99.0%  
169 0.2% 98.9%  
170 0.1% 98.8%  
171 0.2% 98.7%  
172 0.2% 98%  
173 0.3% 98%  
174 0.3% 98%  
175 0.3% 98%  
176 0.3% 97%  
177 0.5% 97%  
178 0.4% 97%  
179 0.5% 96%  
180 0.4% 96%  
181 1.1% 95%  
182 2% 94%  
183 1.4% 93%  
184 1.0% 91%  
185 3% 90%  
186 2% 88%  
187 1.3% 86%  
188 4% 84%  
189 6% 80%  
190 3% 75%  
191 2% 71%  
192 1.0% 69%  
193 3% 68%  
194 2% 65%  
195 2% 63%  
196 2% 61%  
197 2% 59%  
198 3% 57%  
199 2% 55%  
200 2% 53%  
201 2% 51% Median
202 2% 49%  
203 2% 48%  
204 1.4% 45%  
205 0.7% 44%  
206 2% 43%  
207 4% 42%  
208 2% 38%  
209 4% 36%  
210 4% 32%  
211 3% 28%  
212 1.5% 26%  
213 0.6% 24%  
214 0.6% 24%  
215 1.0% 23%  
216 1.4% 22%  
217 2% 21%  
218 0.4% 19%  
219 2% 18%  
220 2% 17%  
221 1.4% 15%  
222 1.2% 14%  
223 0.8% 12%  
224 0.2% 12%  
225 0.7% 11%  
226 1.3% 11%  
227 2% 9%  
228 0.8% 7%  
229 1.4% 7%  
230 0.4% 5%  
231 0.5% 5%  
232 0.5% 4%  
233 0.3% 4%  
234 0.2% 3%  
235 0.3% 3%  
236 0.4% 3%  
237 0.5% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.5%  
240 0.1% 1.2%  
241 0.2% 1.1%  
242 0.1% 0.9%  
243 0.1% 0.8%  
244 0.1% 0.7%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0% 0.5%  
247 0% 0.5%  
248 0% 0.5%  
249 0.1% 0.4%  
250 0% 0.4%  
251 0% 0.3%  
252 0% 0.3%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0% 99.7%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.1% 99.5%  
156 0.1% 99.5%  
157 0.1% 99.4%  
158 0.1% 99.3%  
159 0.1% 99.2%  
160 0.1% 99.2%  
161 0.2% 99.1%  
162 0.1% 98.9%  
163 0.1% 98.8%  
164 0.2% 98.6%  
165 0.2% 98%  
166 0.2% 98%  
167 0.3% 98%  
168 0.2% 98%  
169 0.4% 97%  
170 0.6% 97%  
171 0.5% 96%  
172 0.5% 96%  
173 1.3% 95%  
174 0.7% 94%  
175 0.8% 93%  
176 1.3% 93%  
177 2% 91%  
178 2% 89%  
179 1.3% 88%  
180 3% 86%  
181 4% 84%  
182 2% 80%  
183 2% 78%  
184 4% 76%  
185 4% 72%  
186 3% 68%  
187 2% 66%  
188 2% 64%  
189 2% 62%  
190 1.5% 59%  
191 2% 58%  
192 0.9% 56%  
193 1.5% 55%  
194 3% 54%  
195 2% 51% Median
196 2% 49%  
197 2% 47%  
198 3% 45%  
199 0.9% 43%  
200 0.9% 42%  
201 2% 41%  
202 2% 38%  
203 4% 36%  
204 2% 32%  
205 3% 31%  
206 2% 27%  
207 2% 25%  
208 0.8% 23%  
209 0.5% 23%  
210 1.0% 22%  
211 2% 21%  
212 2% 19%  
213 1.3% 17%  
214 0.4% 15%  
215 1.3% 15%  
216 1.1% 14%  
217 1.0% 13%  
218 1.0% 12%  
219 0.9% 11%  
220 0.5% 10%  
221 2% 9%  
222 0.7% 7%  
223 0.9% 7%  
224 1.1% 6%  
225 0.3% 5%  
226 0.6% 4%  
227 0.3% 4%  
228 0.3% 4%  
229 0.5% 3%  
230 0.4% 3%  
231 0.1% 2%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.2% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.3%  
235 0.1% 1.1%  
236 0.1% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.8%  
238 0% 0.7%  
239 0.1% 0.7%  
240 0.1% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0% 0.5%  
243 0% 0.4%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.4%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations