Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 21–25 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.8% 40.8–44.7% 40.3–45.2% 39.8–45.7% 38.9–46.6%
Labour Party 41.0% 31.8% 30.0–33.7% 29.6–34.2% 29.1–34.6% 28.3–35.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.9% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.1% 11.4–16.8%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Green Party 1.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 347 322–367 319–372 313–376 304–385
Labour Party 262 201 186–223 182–224 178–230 168–237
Liberal Democrats 12 33 31–38 30–41 30–42 28–46
Scottish National Party 35 48 41–51 41–53 37–53 33–54
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0.6% 98.9%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.7% 96% Last Result
318 0.5% 96%  
319 0.9% 95%  
320 0.5% 94%  
321 2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 0.4% 89%  
324 3% 89%  
325 1.4% 86%  
326 2% 84% Majority
327 1.3% 82%  
328 4% 81%  
329 2% 77%  
330 0.9% 75%  
331 3% 74%  
332 0.5% 71%  
333 1.2% 70%  
334 0.8% 69%  
335 1.4% 68%  
336 0.9% 67%  
337 1.0% 66%  
338 0.4% 65%  
339 0.5% 65%  
340 1.1% 64%  
341 2% 63%  
342 1.4% 61%  
343 0.8% 60%  
344 2% 59%  
345 3% 56%  
346 2% 54%  
347 2% 52% Median
348 1.4% 50%  
349 2% 49%  
350 3% 47%  
351 2% 43%  
352 1.1% 41%  
353 2% 40%  
354 1.2% 38%  
355 1.1% 37%  
356 3% 36%  
357 1.0% 33%  
358 3% 32%  
359 1.3% 29%  
360 1.0% 27%  
361 5% 26%  
362 3% 21%  
363 4% 18%  
364 1.4% 15%  
365 0.9% 13%  
366 2% 12%  
367 2% 10%  
368 2% 9%  
369 0.3% 7%  
370 0.5% 7%  
371 0.8% 6%  
372 0.9% 5%  
373 0.9% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.3% 3%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.4%  
380 0.3% 1.3%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0.1% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.7%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.5%  
169 0.1% 99.5%  
170 0% 99.4%  
171 0.1% 99.4%  
172 0.1% 99.3%  
173 0.3% 99.2%  
174 0.3% 99.0%  
175 0.4% 98.7%  
176 0.2% 98%  
177 0.5% 98%  
178 0.2% 98%  
179 0.5% 97%  
180 1.0% 97%  
181 0.7% 96%  
182 0.4% 95%  
183 1.1% 95%  
184 0.9% 94%  
185 2% 93%  
186 5% 91%  
187 5% 86%  
188 7% 82%  
189 0.3% 75%  
190 4% 75%  
191 2% 71%  
192 3% 69%  
193 2% 66%  
194 3% 64%  
195 0.9% 61%  
196 0.3% 60%  
197 5% 60%  
198 0.5% 55%  
199 1.2% 55%  
200 2% 53%  
201 2% 52% Median
202 0.8% 49%  
203 5% 49%  
204 2% 44%  
205 3% 42%  
206 3% 39%  
207 2% 37%  
208 0.9% 35%  
209 0.5% 34%  
210 0.3% 33%  
211 0.6% 33%  
212 1.1% 32%  
213 1.4% 31%  
214 1.0% 30%  
215 0.4% 29%  
216 2% 28%  
217 5% 26%  
218 3% 21%  
219 3% 18%  
220 0.3% 14%  
221 2% 14%  
222 1.4% 12%  
223 1.4% 11%  
224 5% 9%  
225 0.4% 5%  
226 0.3% 4%  
227 0.3% 4%  
228 0.3% 4%  
229 0.4% 3%  
230 0.7% 3%  
231 0.1% 2%  
232 0.7% 2%  
233 0.1% 1.5%  
234 0.2% 1.4%  
235 0.3% 1.2%  
236 0.3% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.3%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 1.0% 99.5%  
30 8% 98%  
31 14% 91%  
32 19% 76%  
33 13% 58% Median
34 0.7% 45%  
35 12% 44%  
36 13% 32%  
37 7% 19%  
38 4% 12%  
39 1.5% 8%  
40 1.1% 7%  
41 3% 6%  
42 0.8% 3%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.2% 1.2%  
45 0.1% 0.9%  
46 0.5% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 0.1% 99.6%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 0.2% 98.9%  
35 0.3% 98.7% Last Result
36 0.4% 98%  
37 0.8% 98%  
38 0.1% 97%  
39 0.7% 97%  
40 0.9% 96%  
41 11% 96%  
42 6% 84%  
43 0.9% 79%  
44 0% 78%  
45 6% 78%  
46 0.5% 72%  
47 11% 71%  
48 12% 60% Median
49 0% 48%  
50 24% 48%  
51 16% 24%  
52 0.3% 8%  
53 6% 8%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.4%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 89% 100% Last Result, Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 4% 52% Median
2 10% 48%  
3 28% 38%  
4 9% 10% Last Result
5 0.6% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 396 100% 372–413 370–417 363–421 355–430
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 395 100% 371–411 368–416 362–420 353–429
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 381 100% 359–400 356–404 349–408 341–418
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 349 86% 324–368 320–373 314–376 305–387
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 347 84% 322–367 319–372 313–376 304–385
Conservative Party 317 347 84% 322–367 319–372 313–376 304–385
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 285 0.8% 265–310 260–313 256–319 247–328
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 283 0.7% 264–309 259–312 255–318 246–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 282 0.5% 263–307 258–311 255–317 244–326
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 250 0% 231–272 227–275 223–282 213–289
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 248 0% 230–271 226–274 223–280 212–287
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 236 0% 220–260 215–263 211–269 202–277
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 234 0% 218–259 214–261 210–268 201–276
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 203 0% 187–224 183–226 180–232 170–239
Labour Party 262 201 0% 186–223 182–224 178–230 168–237

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
357 0.1% 99.4%  
358 0.2% 99.2%  
359 0.3% 99.1%  
360 0.3% 98.8%  
361 0.4% 98%  
362 0.6% 98%  
363 0.3% 98%  
364 0.1% 97%  
365 0.3% 97%  
366 0.3% 97%  
367 0.3% 97%  
368 0.4% 96%  
369 0.5% 96%  
370 2% 95%  
371 2% 93%  
372 3% 92%  
373 2% 89%  
374 0.5% 87%  
375 2% 87%  
376 2% 85%  
377 1.4% 83%  
378 3% 81%  
379 2% 78%  
380 2% 75%  
381 2% 73%  
382 2% 71%  
383 0.7% 68%  
384 0.6% 68%  
385 0.6% 67%  
386 0.5% 66%  
387 0.5% 66%  
388 0.6% 65%  
389 0.9% 65%  
390 1.3% 64%  
391 1.4% 63%  
392 0.5% 61%  
393 2% 61%  
394 3% 58%  
395 3% 55%  
396 2% 51% Median
397 2% 50%  
398 3% 48%  
399 0.8% 45%  
400 0.7% 44%  
401 4% 43%  
402 1.0% 40%  
403 3% 39%  
404 1.4% 36%  
405 1.0% 35%  
406 1.4% 34%  
407 2% 32%  
408 5% 31%  
409 7% 26%  
410 1.5% 19%  
411 4% 17%  
412 1.2% 13%  
413 3% 12%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.1% 7%  
416 0.5% 6%  
417 0.6% 5%  
418 1.1% 5%  
419 0.4% 4%  
420 0.5% 3%  
421 0.6% 3%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.4% 2%  
425 0.2% 1.3%  
426 0.2% 1.1%  
427 0.3% 0.9%  
428 0% 0.6%  
429 0% 0.6%  
430 0.1% 0.6%  
431 0% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.5%  
433 0% 0.4%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0.1% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0% 99.6% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.5%  
354 0.1% 99.5%  
355 0.1% 99.4%  
356 0.1% 99.2%  
357 0.2% 99.2%  
358 0.2% 99.0%  
359 0.5% 98.8%  
360 0.5% 98%  
361 0.2% 98%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.3% 97%  
364 0.2% 97%  
365 0.4% 97%  
366 0.5% 96%  
367 0.6% 96%  
368 1.0% 95%  
369 2% 94%  
370 1.3% 93%  
371 2% 91%  
372 3% 89%  
373 1.1% 86%  
374 1.0% 85%  
375 5% 84%  
376 0.5% 80%  
377 3% 79%  
378 1.2% 76%  
379 3% 75%  
380 2% 72%  
381 2% 70%  
382 1.0% 68%  
383 0.3% 67%  
384 0.5% 67%  
385 0.6% 66%  
386 0.9% 66%  
387 1.2% 65%  
388 0.6% 64%  
389 0.8% 63%  
390 1.3% 62%  
391 3% 61%  
392 2% 58%  
393 2% 56%  
394 2% 54%  
395 3% 52% Median
396 1.0% 49%  
397 3% 48%  
398 2% 45%  
399 0.2% 43%  
400 1.3% 42%  
401 2% 41%  
402 2% 39%  
403 3% 37%  
404 2% 34%  
405 2% 32%  
406 5% 30%  
407 2% 25%  
408 4% 22%  
409 2% 19%  
410 3% 16%  
411 5% 13%  
412 1.1% 8%  
413 0.9% 7%  
414 0.6% 6%  
415 0.5% 6%  
416 0.5% 5%  
417 0.7% 5%  
418 1.0% 4%  
419 0.4% 3%  
420 0.5% 3%  
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.1% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.4% 1.5%  
425 0.2% 1.1%  
426 0.1% 0.9%  
427 0.2% 0.8%  
428 0% 0.5%  
429 0% 0.5%  
430 0.1% 0.5%  
431 0% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0.1% 99.7%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0% 99.5%  
343 0.2% 99.4%  
344 0.2% 99.2%  
345 0.1% 99.0%  
346 0.3% 98.9%  
347 0.3% 98.6%  
348 0.3% 98%  
349 0.5% 98%  
350 0.4% 97%  
351 0.2% 97%  
352 0.4% 97%  
353 0.3% 96%  
354 0.3% 96%  
355 0.6% 96%  
356 0.8% 95%  
357 0.7% 94%  
358 4% 94%  
359 2% 90%  
360 2% 88%  
361 3% 86%  
362 2% 83%  
363 4% 81%  
364 3% 78%  
365 2% 75%  
366 3% 73%  
367 2% 71%  
368 1.0% 69%  
369 1.1% 68%  
370 0.4% 67%  
371 0.3% 67%  
372 2% 66%  
373 1.1% 65%  
374 1.1% 64%  
375 1.0% 62%  
376 2% 61%  
377 2% 59%  
378 1.4% 57%  
379 2% 56%  
380 2% 54% Median
381 3% 52%  
382 1.3% 49%  
383 3% 48%  
384 4% 45%  
385 0.8% 41%  
386 1.0% 40%  
387 1.3% 39%  
388 1.2% 38%  
389 0.8% 36%  
390 3% 36%  
391 4% 33%  
392 4% 29%  
393 2% 25%  
394 2% 23%  
395 4% 21%  
396 2% 18%  
397 3% 16%  
398 0.8% 13%  
399 2% 12%  
400 2% 10%  
401 0.7% 8%  
402 1.4% 8%  
403 1.2% 6%  
404 0.8% 5%  
405 0.7% 4%  
406 0.6% 3%  
407 0.3% 3%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.2% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.1% 1.3%  
413 0.3% 1.2%  
414 0% 0.9%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.4%  
422 0% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0% 99.7%  
303 0% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.1% 99.5%  
307 0.1% 99.4%  
308 0.1% 99.2%  
309 0.4% 99.1%  
310 0.2% 98.7%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.3% 97%  
318 0.3% 97%  
319 1.1% 96%  
320 0.4% 95%  
321 0.7% 95% Last Result
322 1.1% 94%  
323 2% 93%  
324 3% 91%  
325 2% 88%  
326 1.3% 86% Majority
327 0.7% 85%  
328 2% 84%  
329 2% 82%  
330 1.1% 81%  
331 6% 79%  
332 2% 73%  
333 1.4% 72%  
334 1.2% 70%  
335 1.5% 69%  
336 0.7% 68%  
337 0.4% 67%  
338 0.4% 67%  
339 0.7% 66%  
340 1.2% 66%  
341 1.1% 64%  
342 0.6% 63%  
343 1.4% 63%  
344 3% 61%  
345 2% 59%  
346 0.7% 56%  
347 3% 55%  
348 2% 53% Median
349 1.3% 51%  
350 2% 50%  
351 4% 47%  
352 2% 44%  
353 3% 42%  
354 1.3% 39%  
355 0.7% 38%  
356 0.4% 37%  
357 0.6% 37%  
358 0.9% 36%  
359 4% 35%  
360 1.0% 31%  
361 6% 30%  
362 2% 24%  
363 4% 22%  
364 1.4% 17%  
365 2% 16%  
366 1.2% 14%  
367 1.2% 13%  
368 2% 12%  
369 2% 10%  
370 0.4% 8%  
371 2% 8%  
372 0.9% 6%  
373 0.5% 5%  
374 1.1% 5%  
375 0.3% 3%  
376 0.7% 3%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.2% 1.2%  
382 0.1% 1.0%  
383 0.1% 0.9%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.6%  
386 0% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0.6% 98.9%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.7% 96% Last Result
318 0.5% 96%  
319 0.9% 95%  
320 0.5% 94%  
321 2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 0.4% 89%  
324 3% 89%  
325 1.4% 86%  
326 2% 84% Majority
327 1.3% 82%  
328 4% 81%  
329 2% 77%  
330 0.9% 75%  
331 3% 74%  
332 0.5% 71%  
333 1.2% 70%  
334 0.8% 69%  
335 1.4% 68%  
336 0.9% 67%  
337 1.0% 66%  
338 0.4% 65%  
339 0.5% 65%  
340 1.1% 64%  
341 2% 63%  
342 1.4% 61%  
343 0.8% 60%  
344 2% 59%  
345 3% 56%  
346 2% 54%  
347 2% 52% Median
348 1.4% 50%  
349 2% 49%  
350 3% 47%  
351 2% 43%  
352 1.1% 41%  
353 2% 40%  
354 1.2% 38%  
355 1.1% 37%  
356 3% 36%  
357 1.0% 33%  
358 3% 32%  
359 1.3% 29%  
360 1.0% 27%  
361 5% 26%  
362 3% 21%  
363 4% 18%  
364 1.4% 15%  
365 0.9% 13%  
366 2% 12%  
367 2% 10%  
368 2% 9%  
369 0.3% 7%  
370 0.5% 7%  
371 0.8% 6%  
372 0.9% 5%  
373 0.9% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.3% 3%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.4%  
380 0.3% 1.3%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0.1% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0.6% 98.9%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.7% 96% Last Result
318 0.5% 96%  
319 0.9% 95%  
320 0.5% 94%  
321 2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 0.4% 89%  
324 3% 89%  
325 1.4% 86%  
326 2% 84% Majority
327 1.3% 82%  
328 4% 81%  
329 2% 77%  
330 0.9% 75%  
331 3% 74%  
332 0.5% 71%  
333 1.2% 70%  
334 0.8% 69%  
335 1.4% 68%  
336 0.9% 67%  
337 1.0% 66%  
338 0.4% 65%  
339 0.5% 65%  
340 1.1% 64%  
341 2% 63%  
342 1.4% 61%  
343 0.8% 60%  
344 2% 59%  
345 3% 56%  
346 2% 54%  
347 2% 52% Median
348 1.4% 50%  
349 2% 49%  
350 3% 47%  
351 2% 43%  
352 1.1% 41%  
353 2% 40%  
354 1.2% 38%  
355 1.1% 37%  
356 3% 36%  
357 1.0% 33%  
358 3% 32%  
359 1.3% 29%  
360 1.0% 27%  
361 5% 26%  
362 3% 21%  
363 4% 18%  
364 1.4% 15%  
365 0.9% 13%  
366 2% 12%  
367 2% 10%  
368 2% 9%  
369 0.3% 7%  
370 0.5% 7%  
371 0.8% 6%  
372 0.9% 5%  
373 0.9% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.3% 3%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.4%  
380 0.3% 1.3%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0.1% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0% 0.5%  
387 0% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.6%  
246 0% 99.5%  
247 0% 99.5%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0.1% 99.3%  
250 0.1% 99.2%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 99.0%  
253 0.2% 98.7%  
254 0.3% 98.6%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.3% 97%  
258 0.5% 97%  
259 0.9% 97%  
260 0.9% 96%  
261 0.8% 95%  
262 0.5% 94%  
263 0.3% 93%  
264 2% 93%  
265 2% 91%  
266 2% 90%  
267 0.9% 88%  
268 1.4% 87%  
269 4% 85%  
270 3% 82%  
271 5% 79%  
272 1.0% 74%  
273 1.3% 73%  
274 3% 71%  
275 1.0% 68%  
276 3% 67%  
277 1.1% 64%  
278 1.2% 63%  
279 2% 62%  
280 1.1% 60%  
281 2% 59%  
282 3% 57%  
283 2% 53%  
284 1.4% 51% Median
285 2% 50%  
286 2% 48%  
287 3% 46%  
288 2% 44%  
289 0.8% 41%  
290 1.4% 40%  
291 2% 39%  
292 1.1% 37%  
293 0.5% 36%  
294 0.4% 35%  
295 1.0% 35%  
296 0.9% 34%  
297 1.4% 33%  
298 0.8% 32%  
299 1.2% 31%  
300 0.5% 30%  
301 3% 29%  
302 0.9% 26%  
303 2% 25%  
304 4% 23%  
305 1.3% 19%  
306 2% 18%  
307 1.4% 16%  
308 3% 14%  
309 0.4% 11%  
310 2% 11%  
311 2% 8%  
312 0.5% 6%  
313 0.9% 6%  
314 0.5% 5% Last Result
315 0.7% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.3% 3%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.6% 2%  
324 0.1% 1.1%  
325 0.2% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.6%  
244 0% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.5%  
246 0% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.5%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0.1% 99.1%  
251 0.3% 99.0%  
252 0.1% 98.7%  
253 0.3% 98.6%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.3% 97%  
257 0.4% 97%  
258 0.9% 97%  
259 0.9% 96%  
260 0.8% 95%  
261 0.6% 94%  
262 0.3% 93%  
263 2% 93%  
264 2% 91%  
265 2% 90%  
266 1.0% 88%  
267 1.3% 87%  
268 4% 85%  
269 3% 82%  
270 5% 79%  
271 1.1% 74%  
272 1.3% 73%  
273 3% 71%  
274 1.1% 68%  
275 3% 67%  
276 1.1% 64%  
277 1.2% 63%  
278 2% 62%  
279 1.2% 60%  
280 2% 59%  
281 3% 57%  
282 2% 53%  
283 1.4% 51% Median
284 2% 50%  
285 2% 48%  
286 3% 46%  
287 2% 43%  
288 0.6% 41%  
289 2% 40%  
290 2% 39%  
291 1.1% 37%  
292 0.5% 36%  
293 0.9% 35%  
294 0.6% 34%  
295 0.7% 34%  
296 1.5% 33%  
297 1.1% 32%  
298 1.1% 30%  
299 2% 29%  
300 1.1% 27%  
301 1.4% 26%  
302 3% 25%  
303 2% 21%  
304 1.4% 19%  
305 2% 18%  
306 1.1% 15%  
307 3% 14%  
308 0.3% 11%  
309 2% 11%  
310 2% 8%  
311 0.4% 6%  
312 0.9% 6%  
313 0.5% 5% Last Result
314 0.6% 4%  
315 0.3% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.6% 2%  
323 0% 1.1%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.6%  
244 0% 99.5%  
245 0% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 99.1%  
250 0.2% 98.9%  
251 0.3% 98.8%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.7% 98%  
256 0.3% 97%  
257 1.1% 97%  
258 0.5% 95%  
259 1.0% 95%  
260 2% 94%  
261 0.5% 92%  
262 2% 92%  
263 2% 90%  
264 1.2% 88%  
265 1.2% 87%  
266 2% 86%  
267 1.4% 84%  
268 4% 82%  
269 2% 78%  
270 6% 76%  
271 1.1% 70%  
272 4% 69%  
273 0.9% 65%  
274 0.6% 64%  
275 0.4% 63%  
276 0.6% 63%  
277 1.3% 62%  
278 3% 61%  
279 2% 58%  
280 4% 56%  
281 2% 52%  
282 2% 50% Median
283 1.5% 48%  
284 3% 47%  
285 0.7% 44%  
286 2% 44%  
287 3% 41%  
288 1.4% 39%  
289 0.8% 37%  
290 1.2% 36%  
291 0.9% 35%  
292 0.5% 34%  
293 0.4% 34%  
294 0.5% 33%  
295 0.6% 33%  
296 2% 32%  
297 1.3% 31%  
298 1.3% 29%  
299 5% 28%  
300 3% 23%  
301 2% 20%  
302 1.2% 19%  
303 2% 18%  
304 0.7% 16%  
305 2% 15%  
306 2% 13%  
307 3% 12%  
308 2% 9%  
309 1.1% 7% Last Result
310 0.7% 6%  
311 0.4% 5%  
312 1.1% 5%  
313 0.3% 4%  
314 0.2% 3%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.5% 1.3%  
323 0.1% 0.8%  
324 0.2% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0% 99.7%  
211 0.1% 99.6%  
212 0% 99.6%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0.1% 99.5%  
215 0.1% 99.4%  
216 0.2% 99.3%  
217 0.1% 99.1%  
218 0.3% 99.1%  
219 0.1% 98.8%  
220 0.2% 98.7%  
221 0.2% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.5% 98%  
224 0.3% 97%  
225 0.6% 97%  
226 0.7% 97%  
227 0.8% 96%  
228 1.2% 95%  
229 1.5% 94%  
230 0.7% 92%  
231 2% 92%  
232 2% 90%  
233 0.8% 88%  
234 3% 87%  
235 2% 84%  
236 4% 82%  
237 2% 79%  
238 2% 77%  
239 4% 75%  
240 4% 71%  
241 3% 67%  
242 0.7% 64%  
243 1.2% 64%  
244 1.3% 62%  
245 1.2% 61%  
246 0.7% 60%  
247 4% 59%  
248 3% 55%  
249 1.2% 52%  
250 3% 51% Median
251 2% 48%  
252 2% 46%  
253 2% 44%  
254 2% 42%  
255 2% 40%  
256 0.8% 38%  
257 1.4% 37%  
258 1.1% 36%  
259 1.3% 35%  
260 0.3% 34%  
261 0.8% 33%  
262 1.2% 33%  
263 0.6% 31%  
264 3% 31%  
265 2% 28%  
266 1.0% 26%  
267 4% 25%  
268 3% 21%  
269 2% 18%  
270 3% 17%  
271 2% 14%  
272 2% 12%  
273 4% 10%  
274 0.6% 6%  
275 0.8% 6%  
276 0.6% 5%  
277 0.3% 4%  
278 0.3% 4%  
279 0.4% 4%  
280 0.2% 3%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.5% 3%  
283 0.3% 2%  
284 0.3% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.4%  
286 0.1% 1.1%  
287 0.2% 1.0%  
288 0.2% 0.8%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.5%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.8%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0% 99.8%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.6%  
210 0% 99.6%  
211 0.1% 99.6%  
212 0.1% 99.5%  
213 0.1% 99.5%  
214 0.1% 99.4%  
215 0.1% 99.3%  
216 0.3% 99.2%  
217 0.1% 99.0%  
218 0.2% 98.8%  
219 0.2% 98.6%  
220 0.3% 98%  
221 0.2% 98%  
222 0.3% 98%  
223 0.5% 98%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 0.9% 97%  
226 0.9% 96%  
227 1.0% 95%  
228 2% 94%  
229 1.2% 91%  
230 1.3% 90%  
231 2% 89%  
232 2% 87%  
233 2% 85%  
234 3% 84%  
235 1.1% 81%  
236 4% 80%  
237 3% 75%  
238 4% 72%  
239 3% 68%  
240 0.7% 64%  
241 1.2% 64%  
242 0.5% 62%  
243 1.1% 62%  
244 1.4% 61%  
245 2% 59%  
246 1.2% 57%  
247 4% 56%  
248 3% 52%  
249 1.1% 49% Median
250 3% 48%  
251 2% 45%  
252 1.5% 43%  
253 1.3% 41%  
254 2% 40%  
255 2% 38%  
256 1.3% 36%  
257 0.6% 35%  
258 0.5% 34%  
259 1.0% 33%  
260 0.5% 32%  
261 0.9% 32%  
262 1.5% 31%  
263 0.5% 30%  
264 5% 29%  
265 1.3% 24%  
266 2% 22%  
267 4% 21%  
268 2% 17%  
269 2% 15%  
270 3% 13%  
271 3% 10%  
272 1.4% 7%  
273 0.6% 6%  
274 0.6% 5%  
275 0.9% 5%  
276 0.2% 4%  
277 0.4% 4%  
278 0.3% 3%  
279 0.4% 3%  
280 0.2% 3%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.4% 2%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0.2% 1.2%  
285 0.2% 1.0%  
286 0.3% 0.9%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1% Last Result
298 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.8%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0% 99.6%  
201 0.1% 99.6%  
202 0% 99.5%  
203 0% 99.5%  
204 0.2% 99.5%  
205 0.1% 99.2%  
206 0.2% 99.1%  
207 0.4% 98.9%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 0.1% 98%  
210 0.4% 98%  
211 0.5% 98%  
212 0.4% 97%  
213 1.0% 97%  
214 0.8% 96%  
215 0.4% 95%  
216 0.5% 95%  
217 0.6% 94%  
218 0.8% 94%  
219 1.2% 93%  
220 5% 92%  
221 3% 87%  
222 2% 84%  
223 4% 81%  
224 2% 77%  
225 5% 75%  
226 2% 70%  
227 2% 68%  
228 3% 66%  
229 2% 63%  
230 2% 61%  
231 1.3% 59%  
232 0.2% 57%  
233 3% 57%  
234 3% 55%  
235 1.0% 52% Median
236 3% 51%  
237 3% 48%  
238 2% 46%  
239 2% 44%  
240 3% 41%  
241 1.2% 39%  
242 0.7% 37%  
243 1.1% 37%  
244 0.9% 36%  
245 0.7% 35%  
246 1.0% 34%  
247 0.2% 33%  
248 0.7% 33%  
249 1.4% 32%  
250 1.4% 31%  
251 3% 30%  
252 2% 27%  
253 0.4% 25%  
254 3% 24%  
255 1.0% 21%  
256 4% 20%  
257 0.9% 16%  
258 1.2% 15%  
259 3% 13%  
260 2% 11%  
261 1.1% 8%  
262 2% 7%  
263 1.0% 6%  
264 0.6% 5%  
265 0.5% 4%  
266 0.4% 4%  
267 0.2% 3%  
268 0.3% 3%  
269 0.4% 3%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.5% 2%  
272 0.5% 2%  
273 0.2% 1.1%  
274 0.1% 1.0%  
275 0.1% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.7%  
277 0.1% 0.6%  
278 0% 0.5% Last Result
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0% 99.8%  
196 0% 99.8%  
197 0% 99.7%  
198 0% 99.7%  
199 0.1% 99.6%  
200 0% 99.5%  
201 0.1% 99.5%  
202 0% 99.4%  
203 0% 99.4%  
204 0.3% 99.4%  
205 0.2% 99.1%  
206 0.2% 98.9%  
207 0.4% 98.7%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 0.2% 98%  
210 0.6% 98%  
211 0.5% 97%  
212 0.4% 97%  
213 1.1% 96%  
214 0.7% 95%  
215 0.5% 94%  
216 1.1% 94%  
217 2% 93%  
218 3% 91%  
219 1.2% 88%  
220 4% 87%  
221 2% 83%  
222 7% 81%  
223 5% 74%  
224 2% 69%  
225 1.4% 68%  
226 1.1% 66%  
227 1.4% 65%  
228 3% 64%  
229 0.9% 61%  
230 4% 60%  
231 0.7% 57%  
232 0.8% 56%  
233 3% 55%  
234 2% 52% Median
235 2% 50%  
236 3% 48%  
237 4% 45%  
238 2% 41%  
239 1.0% 39%  
240 1.5% 38%  
241 1.0% 37%  
242 0.6% 36%  
243 0.7% 35%  
244 0.5% 34%  
245 0.6% 34%  
246 0.8% 33%  
247 0.3% 33%  
248 2% 32%  
249 3% 31%  
250 2% 28%  
251 3% 26%  
252 2% 24%  
253 3% 22%  
254 1.4% 19%  
255 3% 17%  
256 1.2% 15%  
257 0.4% 13%  
258 2% 13%  
259 3% 11%  
260 2% 8%  
261 2% 6%  
262 0.4% 5%  
263 0.5% 4%  
264 0.3% 4%  
265 0.3% 3%  
266 0.3% 3%  
267 0.1% 3%  
268 0.3% 3%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.3% 1.5%  
272 0.3% 1.2%  
273 0.2% 0.9%  
274 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0% 0.3%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.1% 99.8%  
166 0% 99.7%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.6%  
169 0% 99.6%  
170 0.1% 99.5%  
171 0.1% 99.4%  
172 0.1% 99.4%  
173 0.2% 99.3%  
174 0.1% 99.1%  
175 0.4% 99.0%  
176 0.1% 98.7%  
177 0.8% 98.6%  
178 0% 98%  
179 0.3% 98%  
180 0.8% 98%  
181 0.7% 97%  
182 0.5% 96%  
183 1.1% 96%  
184 0.2% 94%  
185 0.6% 94%  
186 1.2% 94%  
187 3% 92%  
188 6% 90%  
189 3% 84%  
190 5% 80%  
191 0.8% 75%  
192 3% 74%  
193 6% 71%  
194 0.8% 65%  
195 0.9% 64%  
196 0.4% 63%  
197 7% 63%  
198 0.5% 56%  
199 0.8% 56%  
200 0.3% 55%  
201 3% 55%  
202 0.6% 52% Median
203 4% 51%  
204 1.2% 47%  
205 2% 46%  
206 4% 44%  
207 2% 40%  
208 2% 38%  
209 2% 36%  
210 0.5% 34%  
211 1.2% 34%  
212 0.3% 33%  
213 0.3% 32%  
214 0.6% 32%  
215 1.0% 32%  
216 3% 31%  
217 1.2% 28%  
218 4% 27%  
219 2% 23%  
220 4% 21%  
221 2% 16%  
222 0.2% 14%  
223 2% 14%  
224 3% 12%  
225 2% 9%  
226 3% 7%  
227 0.4% 4%  
228 0.2% 4%  
229 0.3% 4%  
230 0.4% 4%  
231 0.6% 3%  
232 0.6% 3%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.1% 2%  
235 0% 1.5%  
236 0.3% 1.4%  
237 0.5% 1.1%  
238 0.1% 0.6%  
239 0.1% 0.5%  
240 0.1% 0.4%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.3%  
243 0.1% 0.3%  
244 0% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0% 99.7%  
165 0% 99.7%  
166 0% 99.7%  
167 0.2% 99.7%  
168 0% 99.5%  
169 0.1% 99.5%  
170 0% 99.4%  
171 0.1% 99.4%  
172 0.1% 99.3%  
173 0.3% 99.2%  
174 0.3% 99.0%  
175 0.4% 98.7%  
176 0.2% 98%  
177 0.5% 98%  
178 0.2% 98%  
179 0.5% 97%  
180 1.0% 97%  
181 0.7% 96%  
182 0.4% 95%  
183 1.1% 95%  
184 0.9% 94%  
185 2% 93%  
186 5% 91%  
187 5% 86%  
188 7% 82%  
189 0.3% 75%  
190 4% 75%  
191 2% 71%  
192 3% 69%  
193 2% 66%  
194 3% 64%  
195 0.9% 61%  
196 0.3% 60%  
197 5% 60%  
198 0.5% 55%  
199 1.2% 55%  
200 2% 53%  
201 2% 52% Median
202 0.8% 49%  
203 5% 49%  
204 2% 44%  
205 3% 42%  
206 3% 39%  
207 2% 37%  
208 0.9% 35%  
209 0.5% 34%  
210 0.3% 33%  
211 0.6% 33%  
212 1.1% 32%  
213 1.4% 31%  
214 1.0% 30%  
215 0.4% 29%  
216 2% 28%  
217 5% 26%  
218 3% 21%  
219 3% 18%  
220 0.3% 14%  
221 2% 14%  
222 1.4% 12%  
223 1.4% 11%  
224 5% 9%  
225 0.4% 5%  
226 0.3% 4%  
227 0.3% 4%  
228 0.3% 4%  
229 0.4% 3%  
230 0.7% 3%  
231 0.1% 2%  
232 0.7% 2%  
233 0.1% 1.5%  
234 0.2% 1.4%  
235 0.3% 1.2%  
236 0.3% 0.9%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.3%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations