Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 27–28 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 41.9% 40.5–43.3% 40.1–43.7% 39.8–44.1% 39.1–44.7%
Labour Party 41.0% 33.9% 32.6–35.3% 32.2–35.7% 31.9–36.0% 31.2–36.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 337 322–355 319–360 315–365 307–373
Labour Party 262 224 207–237 203–242 199–247 191–257
Liberal Democrats 12 32 30–36 30–37 30–38 28–40
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scottish National Party 35 40 25–45 22–47 17–48 6–50
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.1% 99.3%  
310 0.2% 99.2%  
311 0.3% 99.0%  
312 0.2% 98.7%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.7% 97% Last Result
318 0.8% 96%  
319 1.4% 95%  
320 1.4% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 1.3% 90%  
323 2% 89%  
324 2% 87%  
325 2% 86%  
326 3% 84% Majority
327 2% 81%  
328 1.4% 79%  
329 3% 78%  
330 3% 75%  
331 2% 71%  
332 4% 69%  
333 3% 65%  
334 4% 62%  
335 5% 58%  
336 2% 53%  
337 3% 52% Median
338 2% 49%  
339 5% 47%  
340 4% 42%  
341 3% 38%  
342 3% 35%  
343 1.5% 32%  
344 1.2% 30%  
345 3% 29%  
346 2% 26%  
347 2% 25%  
348 2% 22%  
349 3% 20%  
350 1.4% 18%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 15%  
353 1.3% 13%  
354 0.7% 11%  
355 0.8% 11%  
356 1.3% 10%  
357 1.3% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.8% 6%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.3% 3%  
364 0.3% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.4%  
370 0.2% 1.2%  
371 0.3% 1.0%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0.1% 100%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.2% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.6%  
190 0.1% 99.6%  
191 0.2% 99.5%  
192 0.2% 99.3%  
193 0.1% 99.2%  
194 0.1% 99.1%  
195 0.5% 98.9%  
196 0.2% 98%  
197 0.1% 98%  
198 0.2% 98%  
199 0.7% 98%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 1.2% 97%  
202 0.4% 96%  
203 0.6% 95%  
204 0.6% 95%  
205 0.9% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 3% 92%  
208 3% 89%  
209 3% 86%  
210 2% 83%  
211 1.3% 81%  
212 0.7% 80%  
213 1.1% 79%  
214 2% 78%  
215 1.2% 76%  
216 1.4% 75%  
217 2% 73%  
218 8% 71%  
219 3% 63%  
220 1.4% 60%  
221 1.0% 59%  
222 2% 58%  
223 3% 56%  
224 5% 52% Median
225 6% 48%  
226 6% 42%  
227 3% 36%  
228 5% 34%  
229 3% 29%  
230 2% 27%  
231 2% 25%  
232 2% 23%  
233 3% 21%  
234 1.0% 18%  
235 2% 17%  
236 3% 15%  
237 2% 12%  
238 2% 10%  
239 1.0% 8%  
240 0.5% 7%  
241 0.8% 7%  
242 1.0% 6%  
243 0.9% 5%  
244 0.5% 4%  
245 0.2% 3%  
246 0.5% 3%  
247 0.4% 3%  
248 0.5% 2%  
249 0.4% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.3%  
251 0.1% 1.1%  
252 0.1% 1.0%  
253 0.1% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.8%  
255 0.1% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.6%  
257 0.2% 0.5%  
258 0% 0.4%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.3%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.2% Last Result
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 1.1% 99.2%  
30 12% 98%  
31 21% 86%  
32 22% 65% Median
33 18% 43%  
34 2% 25%  
35 10% 23%  
36 4% 13%  
37 4% 9%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.6% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 0.2% 99.7%  
7 0% 99.5%  
8 0% 99.5%  
9 0.1% 99.5%  
10 0.2% 99.4%  
11 0.2% 99.2%  
12 0% 99.0%  
13 0.1% 99.0%  
14 0.3% 98.8%  
15 0.2% 98%  
16 0.3% 98%  
17 0.5% 98%  
18 0.7% 97%  
19 0.9% 97%  
20 0.6% 96%  
21 0.1% 95%  
22 2% 95%  
23 1.3% 94%  
24 1.2% 92%  
25 1.5% 91%  
26 1.2% 90%  
27 1.3% 88%  
28 0.6% 87%  
29 0.4% 86%  
30 0.5% 86%  
31 5% 85%  
32 5% 80%  
33 4% 75%  
34 2% 72%  
35 3% 69% Last Result
36 3% 67%  
37 4% 64%  
38 4% 60%  
39 2% 56%  
40 7% 54% Median
41 29% 47%  
42 6% 18%  
43 0.2% 12%  
44 0% 11%  
45 4% 11%  
46 0.3% 7%  
47 4% 7%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0% 1.4%  
50 1.3% 1.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Median
1 4% 35%  
2 17% 31%  
3 13% 14%  
4 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 375 100% 360–392 354–396 350–401 339–409
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 374 100% 359–392 353–395 349–400 339–409
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 370 100% 355–388 353–391 349–395 341–405
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 338 85% 323–356 319–360 316–365 308–374
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 337 84% 322–355 319–360 315–365 307–373
Conservative Party 317 337 84% 322–355 319–360 315–365 307–373
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 314 295 0.5% 277–310 272–313 267–317 259–325
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 294 0.4% 276–309 271–312 266–316 258–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 293 0.3% 275–308 271–312 266–315 257–323
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 261 0% 243–276 240–278 236–282 226–290
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 257 0% 239–272 236–278 231–282 222–292
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 259 0% 242–275 238–278 234–281 225–289
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 256 0% 239–271 235–277 230–281 222–292
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 225 0% 208–238 204–243 199–248 191–257
Labour Party 262 224 0% 207–237 203–242 199–247 191–257

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.6%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0% 99.5%  
341 0.1% 99.4%  
342 0.1% 99.3%  
343 0.1% 99.2%  
344 0.2% 99.1%  
345 0.1% 98.9%  
346 0.2% 98.8%  
347 0.1% 98.6%  
348 0.3% 98%  
349 0.5% 98%  
350 0.5% 98%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.6% 97%  
353 1.1% 96%  
354 0.2% 95%  
355 0.7% 95%  
356 1.0% 94% Last Result
357 0.8% 93%  
358 0.9% 92%  
359 1.3% 92%  
360 1.4% 90%  
361 1.3% 89%  
362 3% 87%  
363 3% 84%  
364 1.3% 81%  
365 2% 80%  
366 2% 78%  
367 2% 76%  
368 3% 75%  
369 2% 72%  
370 6% 71%  
371 3% 65%  
372 2% 62%  
373 5% 60%  
374 3% 55%  
375 6% 52%  
376 2% 46%  
377 2% 44% Median
378 2% 41%  
379 2% 39%  
380 3% 38%  
381 4% 35%  
382 4% 31%  
383 2% 27%  
384 2% 25%  
385 2% 24%  
386 0.8% 22%  
387 1.1% 21%  
388 0.9% 20%  
389 2% 19%  
390 3% 17%  
391 3% 14%  
392 2% 12%  
393 2% 10%  
394 1.3% 8%  
395 1.2% 7%  
396 0.4% 5%  
397 0.7% 5%  
398 0.8% 4%  
399 0.3% 3%  
400 0.7% 3%  
401 0.3% 3%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.2% 2%  
405 0.4% 2%  
406 0.2% 1.1%  
407 0.2% 0.9%  
408 0.1% 0.8%  
409 0.2% 0.7%  
410 0.1% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.7%  
336 0% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0% 99.6%  
339 0% 99.5%  
340 0.1% 99.5%  
341 0.1% 99.3%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.1% 99.1%  
344 0.2% 98.9%  
345 0.1% 98.8%  
346 0.3% 98.6%  
347 0.4% 98%  
348 0.1% 98%  
349 0.4% 98%  
350 0.5% 97%  
351 0.3% 97%  
352 0.7% 97% Last Result
353 1.4% 96%  
354 0.4% 94%  
355 0.4% 94%  
356 1.0% 94%  
357 0.8% 93%  
358 1.5% 92%  
359 2% 90%  
360 2% 89%  
361 2% 87%  
362 3% 85%  
363 3% 83%  
364 1.0% 80%  
365 2% 79%  
366 3% 77%  
367 2% 74%  
368 3% 73%  
369 2% 69%  
370 4% 67%  
371 3% 63%  
372 2% 60%  
373 5% 57%  
374 3% 52%  
375 5% 49%  
376 2% 44%  
377 3% 42% Median
378 2% 39%  
379 2% 37%  
380 4% 36%  
381 3% 32%  
382 3% 29%  
383 2% 26%  
384 2% 24%  
385 2% 22%  
386 0.8% 21%  
387 1.3% 20%  
388 2% 19%  
389 2% 17%  
390 3% 14%  
391 1.3% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 2% 9%  
394 1.4% 7%  
395 0.8% 5%  
396 0.5% 5%  
397 0.3% 4%  
398 0.5% 4%  
399 0.5% 3%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.3% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.1% 2%  
404 0.2% 2%  
405 0.4% 1.3%  
406 0.2% 0.9%  
407 0.1% 0.8%  
408 0.1% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.7%  
341 0.2% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.5%  
343 0.2% 99.3%  
344 0.2% 99.2%  
345 0.2% 99.0%  
346 0.2% 98.8%  
347 0.3% 98.6%  
348 0.6% 98%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.8% 97%  
351 0.6% 97%  
352 1.0% 96%  
353 2% 95%  
354 2% 93%  
355 0.8% 91%  
356 2% 90%  
357 2% 88%  
358 2% 86%  
359 1.1% 84%  
360 1.5% 83%  
361 2% 81%  
362 5% 79%  
363 3% 74%  
364 4% 72%  
365 4% 68%  
366 5% 64%  
367 3% 58%  
368 2% 56%  
369 2% 54% Median
370 3% 52%  
371 2% 49%  
372 8% 47%  
373 4% 39%  
374 2% 35%  
375 1.3% 33%  
376 2% 31%  
377 2% 29%  
378 0.8% 27%  
379 3% 27%  
380 3% 24%  
381 3% 21%  
382 4% 18%  
383 1.3% 14%  
384 1.3% 13%  
385 0.4% 12%  
386 0.6% 12%  
387 0.7% 11%  
388 1.2% 10%  
389 2% 9%  
390 1.0% 7%  
391 1.2% 6%  
392 0.4% 5%  
393 0.9% 5%  
394 0.5% 4%  
395 0.8% 3%  
396 0.1% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.1% 2%  
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.4% 1.4%  
402 0.2% 1.0%  
403 0.1% 0.7%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.2% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.1% 99.4%  
310 0.2% 99.3%  
311 0.2% 99.1%  
312 0.2% 98.9%  
313 0.3% 98.7%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.7% 98%  
317 0.7% 97%  
318 0.4% 96%  
319 0.9% 96%  
320 0.9% 95%  
321 2% 94% Last Result
322 1.1% 92%  
323 2% 90%  
324 2% 89%  
325 2% 87%  
326 2% 85% Majority
327 2% 83%  
328 2% 81%  
329 3% 80%  
330 3% 76%  
331 2% 73%  
332 4% 71%  
333 2% 68%  
334 5% 66%  
335 5% 61%  
336 2% 56%  
337 4% 54% Median
338 2% 51%  
339 3% 49%  
340 4% 46%  
341 5% 42%  
342 4% 37%  
343 2% 33%  
344 2% 32%  
345 2% 30%  
346 2% 28%  
347 2% 26%  
348 2% 24%  
349 2% 22%  
350 2% 20%  
351 1.4% 18%  
352 2% 16%  
353 2% 14%  
354 1.0% 12%  
355 0.7% 11%  
356 1.2% 10%  
357 0.8% 9%  
358 1.2% 8%  
359 1.3% 7%  
360 1.1% 6%  
361 0.7% 5%  
362 0.6% 4%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.5% 3%  
365 0.3% 3%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.2% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.3%  
371 0.3% 1.2%  
372 0.2% 0.9%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.1% 99.3%  
310 0.2% 99.2%  
311 0.3% 99.0%  
312 0.2% 98.7%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.7% 97% Last Result
318 0.8% 96%  
319 1.4% 95%  
320 1.4% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 1.3% 90%  
323 2% 89%  
324 2% 87%  
325 2% 86%  
326 3% 84% Majority
327 2% 81%  
328 1.4% 79%  
329 3% 78%  
330 3% 75%  
331 2% 71%  
332 4% 69%  
333 3% 65%  
334 4% 62%  
335 5% 58%  
336 2% 53%  
337 3% 52% Median
338 2% 49%  
339 5% 47%  
340 4% 42%  
341 3% 38%  
342 3% 35%  
343 1.5% 32%  
344 1.2% 30%  
345 3% 29%  
346 2% 26%  
347 2% 25%  
348 2% 22%  
349 3% 20%  
350 1.4% 18%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 15%  
353 1.3% 13%  
354 0.7% 11%  
355 0.8% 11%  
356 1.3% 10%  
357 1.3% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.8% 6%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.3% 3%  
364 0.3% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.4%  
370 0.2% 1.2%  
371 0.3% 1.0%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.5%  
309 0.1% 99.3%  
310 0.2% 99.2%  
311 0.3% 99.0%  
312 0.2% 98.7%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.5% 98%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 0.7% 97% Last Result
318 0.8% 96%  
319 1.4% 95%  
320 1.4% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 1.3% 90%  
323 2% 89%  
324 2% 87%  
325 2% 86%  
326 3% 84% Majority
327 2% 81%  
328 1.4% 79%  
329 3% 78%  
330 3% 75%  
331 2% 71%  
332 4% 69%  
333 3% 65%  
334 4% 62%  
335 5% 58%  
336 2% 53%  
337 3% 52% Median
338 2% 49%  
339 5% 47%  
340 4% 42%  
341 3% 38%  
342 3% 35%  
343 1.5% 32%  
344 1.2% 30%  
345 3% 29%  
346 2% 26%  
347 2% 25%  
348 2% 22%  
349 3% 20%  
350 1.4% 18%  
351 2% 16%  
352 2% 15%  
353 1.3% 13%  
354 0.7% 11%  
355 0.8% 11%  
356 1.3% 10%  
357 1.3% 9%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.8% 6%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.3% 3%  
364 0.3% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.3% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.4%  
370 0.2% 1.2%  
371 0.3% 1.0%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Green Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.4%  
261 0.3% 99.3%  
262 0.2% 99.0%  
263 0.2% 98.8%  
264 0.3% 98.6%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.8% 96%  
272 1.1% 96%  
273 0.8% 95%  
274 1.0% 94%  
275 1.3% 93%  
276 1.3% 91%  
277 0.8% 90%  
278 0.7% 89%  
279 1.3% 89%  
280 2% 87%  
281 2% 85%  
282 1.4% 84%  
283 3% 82%  
284 2% 80%  
285 2% 78%  
286 2% 75%  
287 3% 74%  
288 1.2% 71%  
289 1.5% 70%  
290 3% 68%  
291 3% 65%  
292 4% 62%  
293 5% 58%  
294 2% 53%  
295 3% 51%  
296 2% 48%  
297 5% 47% Median
298 4% 42%  
299 3% 38%  
300 4% 35%  
301 2% 31%  
302 3% 29%  
303 3% 25%  
304 1.4% 22%  
305 2% 21%  
306 3% 19%  
307 2% 16%  
308 2% 14%  
309 2% 13%  
310 1.3% 11%  
311 2% 10%  
312 1.4% 8%  
313 1.4% 6%  
314 0.8% 5% Last Result
315 0.7% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.5% 3%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.3%  
322 0.2% 1.0%  
323 0.1% 0.8%  
324 0.2% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.4%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0.1% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.4%  
260 0.3% 99.3%  
261 0.2% 99.0%  
262 0.2% 98.8%  
263 0.3% 98.6%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.5% 98%  
267 0.3% 97%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 0.4% 97%  
270 0.8% 96%  
271 1.1% 96%  
272 0.8% 95%  
273 1.0% 94%  
274 1.3% 93%  
275 1.3% 91%  
276 0.8% 90%  
277 0.7% 89%  
278 1.3% 89%  
279 2% 87%  
280 2% 85%  
281 1.4% 84%  
282 3% 82%  
283 2% 80%  
284 2% 78%  
285 2% 75%  
286 3% 74%  
287 1.2% 71%  
288 1.5% 70%  
289 3% 68%  
290 3% 65%  
291 4% 62%  
292 5% 58%  
293 2% 53%  
294 3% 51%  
295 2% 48%  
296 5% 47% Median
297 4% 42%  
298 3% 38%  
299 4% 35%  
300 2% 31%  
301 3% 29%  
302 3% 25%  
303 1.4% 22%  
304 2% 21%  
305 3% 19%  
306 2% 16%  
307 2% 14%  
308 2% 13%  
309 1.4% 11%  
310 2% 10%  
311 1.4% 8%  
312 1.4% 6%  
313 0.8% 5% Last Result
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.7% 3%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.3%  
321 0.2% 1.0%  
322 0.1% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.3%  
260 0.3% 99.1%  
261 0.2% 98.8%  
262 0.2% 98.7%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0.5% 97%  
268 0.5% 97%  
269 0.6% 96%  
270 0.7% 96%  
271 1.1% 95%  
272 1.3% 94%  
273 1.2% 93%  
274 0.8% 92%  
275 1.2% 91%  
276 0.7% 90%  
277 1.0% 89%  
278 2% 88%  
279 2% 86%  
280 1.4% 84%  
281 2% 82%  
282 2% 80%  
283 2% 78%  
284 2% 76%  
285 2% 74%  
286 2% 72%  
287 2% 70%  
288 2% 68%  
289 4% 67%  
290 5% 63%  
291 4% 58%  
292 3% 54%  
293 2% 51%  
294 4% 49%  
295 2% 46%  
296 5% 44% Median
297 5% 39%  
298 2% 34%  
299 4% 32%  
300 2% 29%  
301 3% 27%  
302 3% 24%  
303 2% 20%  
304 2% 19%  
305 2% 17%  
306 2% 15%  
307 2% 13%  
308 2% 11%  
309 1.1% 10% Last Result
310 2% 8%  
311 0.9% 6%  
312 0.9% 5%  
313 0.4% 4%  
314 0.7% 4%  
315 0.7% 3%  
316 0.5% 2%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.3%  
320 0.2% 1.1%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.2% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.1% 99.6%  
227 0.1% 99.5%  
228 0.1% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.3%  
230 0.4% 99.0%  
231 0.4% 98.6%  
232 0.1% 98%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.8% 98%  
237 0.5% 97%  
238 0.9% 96%  
239 0.4% 95%  
240 1.2% 95%  
241 1.0% 94%  
242 2% 93%  
243 1.2% 91%  
244 0.7% 90%  
245 0.6% 89%  
246 0.4% 88%  
247 1.3% 88%  
248 1.3% 87%  
249 4% 86%  
250 3% 82%  
251 3% 79%  
252 3% 76%  
253 0.8% 73%  
254 2% 73%  
255 2% 71%  
256 1.3% 69%  
257 2% 67%  
258 4% 65%  
259 8% 61%  
260 2% 53%  
261 3% 51%  
262 2% 48%  
263 2% 46%  
264 3% 44% Median
265 5% 42%  
266 4% 36%  
267 4% 32%  
268 3% 28%  
269 5% 26%  
270 2% 21%  
271 1.5% 19%  
272 1.1% 17%  
273 2% 16%  
274 2% 14%  
275 2% 12%  
276 0.8% 10%  
277 2% 9%  
278 2% 7%  
279 1.0% 5%  
280 0.6% 4%  
281 0.8% 3%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 0.6% 2%  
284 0.3% 2%  
285 0.2% 1.4%  
286 0.2% 1.2%  
287 0.2% 1.0%  
288 0.2% 0.8%  
289 0.2% 0.7%  
290 0.2% 0.5%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1% Last Result
302 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0.1% 99.6%  
223 0.1% 99.4%  
224 0.1% 99.3%  
225 0.2% 99.2%  
226 0.4% 99.1%  
227 0.2% 98.7%  
228 0.1% 98%  
229 0.4% 98%  
230 0.3% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.5% 97%  
233 0.5% 97%  
234 0.3% 96%  
235 0.5% 96%  
236 0.8% 95%  
237 1.4% 95%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 1.3% 90%  
241 3% 88%  
242 2% 86%  
243 2% 83%  
244 1.3% 81%  
245 0.8% 80%  
246 2% 79%  
247 2% 78%  
248 2% 76%  
249 3% 74%  
250 3% 71%  
251 4% 68%  
252 2% 64%  
253 2% 63%  
254 3% 61%  
255 2% 58%  
256 5% 56% Median
257 3% 51%  
258 5% 48%  
259 2% 43%  
260 3% 40%  
261 4% 37%  
262 2% 33%  
263 3% 31%  
264 2% 27%  
265 3% 26%  
266 2% 23%  
267 1.0% 21%  
268 3% 20%  
269 3% 17%  
270 2% 15%  
271 2% 13%  
272 2% 11%  
273 1.5% 10%  
274 0.8% 8%  
275 1.0% 7%  
276 0.4% 6%  
277 0.4% 6%  
278 1.4% 6% Last Result
279 0.7% 4%  
280 0.3% 3%  
281 0.5% 3%  
282 0.4% 3%  
283 0.1% 2%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.1% 1.4%  
287 0.2% 1.2%  
288 0.1% 1.1%  
289 0.2% 0.9%  
290 0.1% 0.7%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0% 0.5%  
293 0% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.2% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.1% 99.5%  
227 0.1% 99.4%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.3% 99.1%  
230 0.4% 98.8%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.1% 98%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.3% 97%  
236 0.7% 97%  
237 0.6% 96%  
238 0.9% 96%  
239 0.5% 95%  
240 2% 94%  
241 1.2% 93%  
242 2% 92%  
243 0.7% 90%  
244 0.5% 89%  
245 0.7% 89%  
246 0.8% 88%  
247 2% 87%  
248 2% 85%  
249 5% 84%  
250 3% 79%  
251 2% 76%  
252 1.1% 74%  
253 1.3% 73%  
254 2% 71%  
255 2% 69%  
256 1.3% 67%  
257 4% 66%  
258 4% 62%  
259 8% 58%  
260 2% 50%  
261 1.2% 47%  
262 1.2% 46%  
263 2% 45%  
264 4% 43% Median
265 6% 38%  
266 4% 32%  
267 2% 28%  
268 2% 26%  
269 4% 24%  
270 3% 20%  
271 2% 17%  
272 2% 16%  
273 2% 14%  
274 0.8% 12%  
275 2% 11%  
276 1.0% 9%  
277 3% 8%  
278 1.2% 5%  
279 0.4% 4%  
280 0.6% 4%  
281 0.6% 3%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.6% 2%  
284 0.2% 1.4%  
285 0.2% 1.2%  
286 0.2% 1.0%  
287 0.2% 0.9%  
288 0.2% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.4%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1% Last Result
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.1% 99.6%  
222 0.2% 99.5%  
223 0.1% 99.3%  
224 0.2% 99.2%  
225 0.2% 99.1%  
226 0.4% 98.9%  
227 0.2% 98%  
228 0.1% 98%  
229 0.4% 98%  
230 0.3% 98%  
231 0.7% 97%  
232 0.3% 97%  
233 0.8% 97%  
234 0.7% 96%  
235 0.4% 95%  
236 1.2% 95%  
237 1.3% 93%  
238 2% 92%  
239 2% 90%  
240 3% 88%  
241 3% 86%  
242 2% 83%  
243 0.9% 81%  
244 1.1% 80%  
245 0.8% 79%  
246 2% 78%  
247 2% 76%  
248 2% 75%  
249 4% 73%  
250 4% 69%  
251 3% 65%  
252 2% 62%  
253 2% 61%  
254 2% 59%  
255 2% 56%  
256 6% 54% Median
257 3% 48%  
258 5% 45%  
259 2% 40%  
260 3% 38%  
261 6% 35%  
262 2% 29%  
263 3% 28%  
264 2% 25%  
265 2% 24%  
266 2% 22%  
267 1.3% 20%  
268 3% 19%  
269 3% 16%  
270 1.3% 13%  
271 1.4% 11%  
272 1.3% 10%  
273 0.9% 8%  
274 0.8% 8% Last Result
275 1.0% 7%  
276 0.7% 6%  
277 0.2% 5%  
278 1.1% 5%  
279 0.6% 4%  
280 0.3% 3%  
281 0.5% 3%  
282 0.5% 2%  
283 0.3% 2%  
284 0.1% 2%  
285 0.2% 1.4%  
286 0.1% 1.2%  
287 0.2% 1.1%  
288 0.1% 0.9%  
289 0.1% 0.8%  
290 0.1% 0.7%  
291 0% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.5%  
293 0% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0.2% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.7%  
190 0.1% 99.6%  
191 0.2% 99.6%  
192 0.1% 99.4%  
193 0.1% 99.3%  
194 0.1% 99.2%  
195 0.4% 99.1%  
196 0.2% 98.7%  
197 0.3% 98%  
198 0.1% 98%  
199 0.7% 98%  
200 0% 97%  
201 0.7% 97%  
202 0.4% 97%  
203 0.8% 96%  
204 0.3% 95%  
205 0.3% 95%  
206 2% 95%  
207 3% 93%  
208 2% 91%  
209 3% 88%  
210 2% 85%  
211 3% 84%  
212 1.4% 81%  
213 0.8% 79%  
214 1.4% 79%  
215 1.1% 77%  
216 2% 76%  
217 1.2% 75%  
218 6% 73%  
219 3% 67%  
220 3% 64%  
221 2% 61%  
222 2% 59%  
223 2% 57%  
224 3% 55% Median
225 5% 52%  
226 5% 47%  
227 5% 41%  
228 5% 37%  
229 2% 31%  
230 2% 29%  
231 2% 27%  
232 1.1% 25%  
233 4% 24%  
234 1.4% 20%  
235 2% 18%  
236 2% 17%  
237 3% 14%  
238 2% 11%  
239 1.1% 10%  
240 1.2% 9%  
241 1.1% 7%  
242 1.1% 6%  
243 1.0% 5%  
244 0.4% 4%  
245 0.2% 4%  
246 0.3% 3%  
247 0.2% 3%  
248 0.6% 3%  
249 0.7% 2%  
250 0.4% 2%  
251 0.2% 1.2%  
252 0.1% 1.0%  
253 0% 1.0%  
254 0.1% 0.9%  
255 0.1% 0.8%  
256 0.1% 0.8%  
257 0.2% 0.6%  
258 0.1% 0.4%  
259 0.1% 0.4%  
260 0% 0.3%  
261 0% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1% Last Result
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0.1% 100%  
187 0.1% 99.9%  
188 0.2% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.6%  
190 0.1% 99.6%  
191 0.2% 99.5%  
192 0.2% 99.3%  
193 0.1% 99.2%  
194 0.1% 99.1%  
195 0.5% 98.9%  
196 0.2% 98%  
197 0.1% 98%  
198 0.2% 98%  
199 0.7% 98%  
200 0.2% 97%  
201 1.2% 97%  
202 0.4% 96%  
203 0.6% 95%  
204 0.6% 95%  
205 0.9% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 3% 92%  
208 3% 89%  
209 3% 86%  
210 2% 83%  
211 1.3% 81%  
212 0.7% 80%  
213 1.1% 79%  
214 2% 78%  
215 1.2% 76%  
216 1.4% 75%  
217 2% 73%  
218 8% 71%  
219 3% 63%  
220 1.4% 60%  
221 1.0% 59%  
222 2% 58%  
223 3% 56%  
224 5% 52% Median
225 6% 48%  
226 6% 42%  
227 3% 36%  
228 5% 34%  
229 3% 29%  
230 2% 27%  
231 2% 25%  
232 2% 23%  
233 3% 21%  
234 1.0% 18%  
235 2% 17%  
236 3% 15%  
237 2% 12%  
238 2% 10%  
239 1.0% 8%  
240 0.5% 7%  
241 0.8% 7%  
242 1.0% 6%  
243 0.9% 5%  
244 0.5% 4%  
245 0.2% 3%  
246 0.5% 3%  
247 0.4% 3%  
248 0.5% 2%  
249 0.4% 2%  
250 0.2% 1.3%  
251 0.1% 1.1%  
252 0.1% 1.0%  
253 0.1% 0.9%  
254 0.1% 0.8%  
255 0.1% 0.7%  
256 0.1% 0.6%  
257 0.2% 0.5%  
258 0% 0.4%  
259 0% 0.3%  
260 0% 0.3%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0% 0.2% Last Result
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations