Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 27–29 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
43.4% |
45.4% |
44.0–46.9% |
43.6–47.3% |
43.3–47.6% |
42.6–48.3% |
Labour Party |
41.0% |
30.6% |
29.3–32.0% |
29.0–32.3% |
28.6–32.7% |
28.0–33.3% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.6% |
12.8% |
11.9–13.8% |
11.7–14.1% |
11.4–14.4% |
11.0–14.9% |
Scottish National Party |
3.1% |
4.0% |
3.5–4.6% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.2–4.9% |
3.0–5.2% |
Green Party |
1.7% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.5% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.1–4.1% |
Brexit Party |
0.0% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.7% |
1.3–2.9% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2–0.5% |
0.1–0.5% |
0.1–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
317 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
352 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
353 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
354 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
355 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
356 |
2% |
93% |
|
357 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
358 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
359 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
360 |
2% |
88% |
|
361 |
2% |
87% |
|
362 |
3% |
85% |
|
363 |
4% |
82% |
|
364 |
4% |
78% |
|
365 |
4% |
73% |
|
366 |
4% |
70% |
|
367 |
6% |
66% |
|
368 |
3% |
60% |
|
369 |
4% |
56% |
|
370 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
371 |
4% |
49% |
|
372 |
3% |
45% |
|
373 |
10% |
42% |
|
374 |
1.3% |
32% |
|
375 |
2% |
30% |
|
376 |
4% |
28% |
|
377 |
3% |
25% |
|
378 |
3% |
21% |
|
379 |
2% |
18% |
|
380 |
2% |
17% |
|
381 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
382 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
383 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
384 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
385 |
3% |
10% |
|
386 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
387 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
388 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
389 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
390 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
392 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
394 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
395 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
396 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
397 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
398 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
399 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
403 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
405 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
408 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
157 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
161 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
162 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
163 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
164 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
165 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
166 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
167 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
168 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
169 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
170 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
172 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
173 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
174 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
175 |
6% |
90% |
|
176 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
177 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
178 |
0.9% |
83% |
|
179 |
3% |
83% |
|
180 |
7% |
79% |
|
181 |
7% |
72% |
|
182 |
3% |
65% |
|
183 |
10% |
62% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
185 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
186 |
14% |
49% |
|
187 |
9% |
35% |
|
188 |
8% |
26% |
|
189 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
190 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
191 |
2% |
17% |
|
192 |
2% |
15% |
|
193 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
194 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
195 |
3% |
10% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
197 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
199 |
2% |
6% |
|
200 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
201 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
203 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
206 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
207 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
212 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
28 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
29 |
6% |
93% |
|
30 |
50% |
86% |
Median |
31 |
22% |
36% |
|
32 |
9% |
14% |
|
33 |
3% |
4% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
0% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
36 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
37 |
1.1% |
98.8% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
39 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
41 |
19% |
95% |
|
42 |
10% |
76% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
66% |
|
44 |
0% |
65% |
|
45 |
13% |
65% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
52% |
|
47 |
15% |
52% |
Median |
48 |
13% |
36% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
50 |
18% |
23% |
|
51 |
4% |
5% |
|
52 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
72% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
3% |
28% |
|
2 |
4% |
25% |
|
3 |
19% |
21% |
|
4 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
416 |
100% |
406–427 |
401–433 |
396–438 |
391–445 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
415 |
100% |
406–426 |
401–432 |
396–437 |
390–445 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
401 |
100% |
388–414 |
385–418 |
380–423 |
372–433 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
371 |
100% |
359–385 |
354–389 |
349–394 |
341–403 |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party |
317 |
370 |
100% |
357–384 |
354–388 |
348–394 |
341–403 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
370 |
100% |
357–384 |
354–388 |
348–394 |
341–403 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru |
314 |
262 |
0% |
248–275 |
244–278 |
238–284 |
229–291 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
261 |
0% |
247–274 |
243–277 |
237–283 |
228–290 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
260 |
0% |
246–272 |
242–277 |
237–282 |
228–290 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
230 |
0% |
217–243 |
213–246 |
208–251 |
198–259 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
230 |
0% |
216–242 |
212–246 |
207–251 |
198–258 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
216 |
0% |
205–225 |
199–230 |
194–235 |
186–241 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
215 |
0% |
204–225 |
198–230 |
193–235 |
186–240 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
186 |
0% |
175–195 |
169–199 |
164–204 |
157–209 |
Labour Party |
262 |
185 |
0% |
175–195 |
168–199 |
163–204 |
156–208 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
356 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
382 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
383 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
384 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
385 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
386 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
388 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
391 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
392 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
393 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
394 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
395 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
396 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
397 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
398 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
399 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
400 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
401 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
402 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
403 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
404 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
405 |
0.8% |
92% |
|
406 |
2% |
91% |
|
407 |
2% |
89% |
|
408 |
2% |
88% |
|
409 |
2% |
86% |
|
410 |
2% |
84% |
|
411 |
1.3% |
82% |
|
412 |
6% |
81% |
|
413 |
7% |
75% |
|
414 |
7% |
68% |
|
415 |
11% |
61% |
|
416 |
3% |
50% |
|
417 |
4% |
47% |
Median |
418 |
6% |
43% |
|
419 |
4% |
38% |
|
420 |
6% |
34% |
|
421 |
5% |
28% |
|
422 |
3% |
22% |
|
423 |
2% |
19% |
|
424 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
425 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
426 |
3% |
14% |
|
427 |
2% |
11% |
|
428 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
429 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
430 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
431 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
432 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
433 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
434 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
435 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
436 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
437 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
438 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
439 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
440 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
441 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
442 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
443 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
444 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
445 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
446 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
447 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
448 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
450 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
452 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
352 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
382 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
383 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
384 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
385 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
386 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
392 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
393 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
394 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
395 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
396 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
397 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
398 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
399 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
400 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
401 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
402 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
403 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
404 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
405 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
406 |
2% |
90% |
|
407 |
2% |
88% |
|
408 |
2% |
86% |
|
409 |
2% |
84% |
|
410 |
2% |
82% |
|
411 |
3% |
80% |
|
412 |
8% |
77% |
|
413 |
7% |
70% |
|
414 |
7% |
62% |
|
415 |
8% |
55% |
|
416 |
4% |
47% |
|
417 |
3% |
43% |
Median |
418 |
6% |
40% |
|
419 |
2% |
33% |
|
420 |
7% |
31% |
|
421 |
4% |
24% |
|
422 |
3% |
20% |
|
423 |
2% |
17% |
|
424 |
1.3% |
16% |
|
425 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
426 |
4% |
13% |
|
427 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
428 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
429 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
430 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
431 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
432 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
433 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
434 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
435 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
436 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
437 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
438 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
439 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
440 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
441 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
442 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
443 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
444 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
445 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
446 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
447 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
448 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
449 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
450 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
451 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
329 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
365 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
366 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
367 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
368 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
369 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
370 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
371 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
372 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
373 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
374 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
375 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
376 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
377 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
379 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
380 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
381 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
382 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
383 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
384 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
385 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
386 |
2% |
94% |
|
387 |
2% |
92% |
|
388 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
389 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
390 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
391 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
392 |
2% |
87% |
|
393 |
4% |
85% |
|
394 |
4% |
81% |
|
395 |
4% |
77% |
|
396 |
5% |
72% |
|
397 |
5% |
67% |
|
398 |
5% |
62% |
|
399 |
3% |
57% |
|
400 |
3% |
54% |
Median |
401 |
5% |
51% |
|
402 |
3% |
46% |
|
403 |
10% |
43% |
|
404 |
3% |
33% |
|
405 |
2% |
30% |
|
406 |
3% |
28% |
|
407 |
4% |
25% |
|
408 |
3% |
21% |
|
409 |
3% |
18% |
|
410 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
411 |
2% |
14% |
|
412 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
413 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
414 |
2% |
11% |
|
415 |
2% |
9% |
|
416 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
417 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
418 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
419 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
420 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
421 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
422 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
423 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
424 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
425 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
426 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
427 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
428 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
429 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
430 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
431 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
432 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
433 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
434 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
435 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
436 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
437 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
438 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
439 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
440 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
321 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
345 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
347 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
350 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
352 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
353 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
354 |
2% |
96% |
|
355 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
356 |
2% |
94% |
|
357 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
358 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
359 |
1.1% |
90% |
|
360 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
361 |
1.2% |
88% |
|
362 |
3% |
87% |
|
363 |
4% |
84% |
|
364 |
4% |
80% |
|
365 |
3% |
76% |
|
366 |
3% |
73% |
|
367 |
6% |
70% |
|
368 |
4% |
64% |
|
369 |
4% |
60% |
|
370 |
4% |
56% |
Median |
371 |
4% |
52% |
|
372 |
3% |
48% |
|
373 |
10% |
45% |
|
374 |
3% |
35% |
|
375 |
2% |
32% |
|
376 |
4% |
30% |
|
377 |
3% |
26% |
|
378 |
3% |
24% |
|
379 |
2% |
20% |
|
380 |
3% |
19% |
|
381 |
2% |
16% |
|
382 |
1.1% |
14% |
|
383 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
384 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
385 |
3% |
11% |
|
386 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
387 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
388 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
389 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
390 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
392 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
394 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
395 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
396 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
397 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
398 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
399 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
403 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
405 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
406 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
408 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
317 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
352 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
353 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
354 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
355 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
356 |
2% |
93% |
|
357 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
358 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
359 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
360 |
2% |
88% |
|
361 |
2% |
87% |
|
362 |
3% |
85% |
|
363 |
4% |
82% |
|
364 |
4% |
78% |
|
365 |
4% |
73% |
|
366 |
4% |
70% |
|
367 |
6% |
66% |
|
368 |
3% |
60% |
|
369 |
4% |
56% |
|
370 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
371 |
4% |
49% |
|
372 |
3% |
45% |
|
373 |
10% |
42% |
|
374 |
1.3% |
32% |
|
375 |
2% |
30% |
|
376 |
4% |
28% |
|
377 |
3% |
25% |
|
378 |
3% |
21% |
|
379 |
2% |
18% |
|
380 |
2% |
17% |
|
381 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
382 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
383 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
384 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
385 |
3% |
10% |
|
386 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
387 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
388 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
389 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
390 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
392 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
394 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
395 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
396 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
397 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
398 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
399 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
403 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
405 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
408 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
317 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
352 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
353 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
354 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
355 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
356 |
2% |
93% |
|
357 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
358 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
359 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
360 |
2% |
88% |
|
361 |
2% |
87% |
|
362 |
3% |
85% |
|
363 |
4% |
82% |
|
364 |
4% |
78% |
|
365 |
4% |
73% |
|
366 |
4% |
70% |
|
367 |
6% |
66% |
|
368 |
3% |
60% |
|
369 |
4% |
56% |
|
370 |
4% |
53% |
Median |
371 |
4% |
49% |
|
372 |
3% |
45% |
|
373 |
10% |
42% |
|
374 |
1.3% |
32% |
|
375 |
2% |
30% |
|
376 |
4% |
28% |
|
377 |
3% |
25% |
|
378 |
3% |
21% |
|
379 |
2% |
18% |
|
380 |
2% |
17% |
|
381 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
382 |
1.3% |
13% |
|
383 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
384 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
385 |
3% |
10% |
|
386 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
387 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
388 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
389 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
390 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
392 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
394 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
395 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
396 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
397 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
398 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
399 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
401 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
402 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
403 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
404 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
405 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
406 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
407 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
408 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
409 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
410 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
229 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
234 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
236 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
237 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
238 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
240 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
241 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
243 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
244 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
245 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
246 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
247 |
3% |
93% |
|
248 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
249 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
250 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
251 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
252 |
2% |
86% |
|
253 |
2% |
83% |
|
254 |
3% |
82% |
|
255 |
3% |
79% |
|
256 |
4% |
75% |
|
257 |
2% |
72% |
|
258 |
1.3% |
70% |
|
259 |
10% |
68% |
|
260 |
3% |
58% |
|
261 |
4% |
55% |
|
262 |
4% |
51% |
|
263 |
4% |
47% |
Median |
264 |
3% |
44% |
|
265 |
6% |
40% |
|
266 |
4% |
34% |
|
267 |
4% |
30% |
|
268 |
4% |
27% |
|
269 |
4% |
22% |
|
270 |
3% |
18% |
|
271 |
2% |
15% |
|
272 |
2% |
13% |
|
273 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
274 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
275 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
276 |
2% |
9% |
|
277 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
278 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
279 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
280 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
284 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
285 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
287 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
291 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
301 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
228 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
232 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
236 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
237 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
239 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
240 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
241 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
243 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
244 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
245 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
246 |
3% |
93% |
|
247 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
248 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
249 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
250 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
251 |
2% |
86% |
|
252 |
2% |
83% |
|
253 |
3% |
82% |
|
254 |
3% |
79% |
|
255 |
4% |
75% |
|
256 |
2% |
72% |
|
257 |
1.3% |
70% |
|
258 |
10% |
68% |
|
259 |
3% |
58% |
|
260 |
4% |
55% |
|
261 |
4% |
51% |
|
262 |
4% |
47% |
Median |
263 |
3% |
44% |
|
264 |
6% |
40% |
|
265 |
4% |
34% |
|
266 |
4% |
30% |
|
267 |
4% |
27% |
|
268 |
4% |
22% |
|
269 |
3% |
18% |
|
270 |
2% |
15% |
|
271 |
2% |
13% |
|
272 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
273 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
274 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
275 |
2% |
9% |
|
276 |
0.7% |
7% |
|
277 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
278 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
279 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
286 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
293 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
300 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
228 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
232 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
234 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
236 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
237 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
239 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
240 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
241 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
242 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
243 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
244 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
245 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
246 |
3% |
92% |
|
247 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
248 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
249 |
1.1% |
87% |
|
250 |
2% |
86% |
|
251 |
3% |
84% |
|
252 |
2% |
81% |
|
253 |
3% |
80% |
|
254 |
3% |
76% |
|
255 |
4% |
74% |
|
256 |
2% |
70% |
|
257 |
3% |
68% |
|
258 |
10% |
65% |
|
259 |
3% |
55% |
|
260 |
4% |
52% |
|
261 |
4% |
48% |
|
262 |
4% |
44% |
Median |
263 |
4% |
40% |
|
264 |
6% |
36% |
|
265 |
3% |
30% |
|
266 |
3% |
27% |
|
267 |
4% |
24% |
|
268 |
4% |
20% |
|
269 |
3% |
16% |
|
270 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
271 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
272 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
273 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
274 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
275 |
2% |
8% |
|
276 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
277 |
2% |
6% |
|
278 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
279 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
284 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
293 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
294 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
295 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
296 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
297 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
298 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
198 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
203 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
204 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
205 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
206 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
207 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
208 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
209 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
211 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
212 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
213 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
214 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
215 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
216 |
2% |
93% |
|
217 |
2% |
91% |
|
218 |
1.1% |
89% |
|
219 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
220 |
2% |
87% |
|
221 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
222 |
3% |
84% |
|
223 |
3% |
82% |
|
224 |
4% |
79% |
|
225 |
3% |
75% |
|
226 |
2% |
72% |
|
227 |
3% |
70% |
|
228 |
10% |
67% |
|
229 |
3% |
57% |
|
230 |
5% |
54% |
|
231 |
3% |
49% |
|
232 |
3% |
46% |
Median |
233 |
5% |
43% |
|
234 |
5% |
38% |
|
235 |
5% |
33% |
|
236 |
4% |
28% |
|
237 |
4% |
23% |
|
238 |
4% |
19% |
|
239 |
2% |
15% |
|
240 |
1.1% |
13% |
|
241 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
242 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
243 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
244 |
2% |
9% |
|
245 |
2% |
8% |
|
246 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
247 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
250 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
251 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
254 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
262 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
263 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
191 |
0% |
100% |
|
192 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
197 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
198 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
199 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
200 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
203 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
204 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
205 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
206 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
207 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
208 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
209 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
211 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
212 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
213 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
214 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
215 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
216 |
3% |
93% |
|
217 |
2% |
90% |
|
218 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
219 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
220 |
2% |
87% |
|
221 |
2% |
84% |
|
222 |
3% |
82% |
|
223 |
3% |
79% |
|
224 |
4% |
77% |
|
225 |
3% |
72% |
|
226 |
2% |
70% |
|
227 |
4% |
68% |
|
228 |
11% |
64% |
|
229 |
2% |
53% |
|
230 |
4% |
51% |
|
231 |
4% |
47% |
|
232 |
4% |
43% |
Median |
233 |
5% |
39% |
|
234 |
6% |
33% |
|
235 |
3% |
28% |
|
236 |
5% |
25% |
|
237 |
4% |
20% |
|
238 |
3% |
16% |
|
239 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
240 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
241 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
242 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
243 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
244 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
245 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
246 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
247 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
248 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
250 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
254 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
257 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
261 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
262 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
263 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
264 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
265 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
279 |
0% |
0% |
|
280 |
0% |
0% |
|
281 |
0% |
0% |
|
282 |
0% |
0% |
|
283 |
0% |
0% |
|
284 |
0% |
0% |
|
285 |
0% |
0% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
181 |
0% |
100% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
185 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
186 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
187 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
188 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
189 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
191 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
193 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
194 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
195 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
197 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
198 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
199 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
200 |
0.8% |
94% |
|
201 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
202 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
203 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
204 |
1.4% |
92% |
|
205 |
4% |
91% |
|
206 |
1.5% |
87% |
|
207 |
1.3% |
85% |
|
208 |
2% |
84% |
|
209 |
3% |
83% |
|
210 |
4% |
80% |
|
211 |
7% |
76% |
|
212 |
2% |
69% |
|
213 |
6% |
67% |
|
214 |
3% |
60% |
|
215 |
4% |
57% |
Median |
216 |
8% |
53% |
|
217 |
7% |
45% |
|
218 |
7% |
38% |
|
219 |
8% |
30% |
|
220 |
3% |
23% |
|
221 |
2% |
20% |
|
222 |
2% |
18% |
|
223 |
2% |
16% |
|
224 |
2% |
14% |
|
225 |
2% |
12% |
|
226 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
227 |
1.2% |
9% |
|
228 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
229 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
230 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
231 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
232 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
233 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
234 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
237 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
238 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
239 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
240 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
245 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
246 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
247 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
180 |
0% |
100% |
|
181 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
182 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
183 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
184 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
185 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
186 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
187 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
188 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
189 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
190 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
191 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
192 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
193 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
194 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
195 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
197 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
198 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
199 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
200 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
201 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
202 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
203 |
1.2% |
92% |
|
204 |
2% |
91% |
|
205 |
3% |
89% |
|
206 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
207 |
1.1% |
84% |
|
208 |
2% |
83% |
|
209 |
3% |
81% |
|
210 |
5% |
78% |
|
211 |
6% |
72% |
|
212 |
4% |
66% |
|
213 |
6% |
62% |
|
214 |
4% |
57% |
|
215 |
3% |
53% |
Median |
216 |
11% |
50% |
|
217 |
7% |
39% |
|
218 |
7% |
32% |
|
219 |
6% |
25% |
|
220 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
221 |
2% |
18% |
|
222 |
2% |
16% |
|
223 |
2% |
14% |
|
224 |
2% |
12% |
|
225 |
2% |
11% |
|
226 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
227 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
228 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
229 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
230 |
1.3% |
6% |
|
231 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
232 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
233 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
234 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
237 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
238 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
239 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
240 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
243 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
245 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
246 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
247 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
248 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
249 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
250 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
251 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
157 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
159 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
160 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
161 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
163 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
164 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
165 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
166 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
167 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
168 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
169 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
170 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
172 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
173 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
174 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
175 |
6% |
92% |
|
176 |
0.3% |
86% |
|
177 |
2% |
86% |
|
178 |
0.2% |
84% |
|
179 |
2% |
84% |
|
180 |
6% |
82% |
|
181 |
7% |
76% |
|
182 |
1.5% |
69% |
|
183 |
10% |
67% |
|
184 |
0.8% |
57% |
|
185 |
3% |
56% |
Median |
186 |
10% |
53% |
|
187 |
8% |
42% |
|
188 |
11% |
34% |
|
189 |
3% |
23% |
|
190 |
2% |
20% |
|
191 |
1.4% |
17% |
|
192 |
2% |
16% |
|
193 |
2% |
14% |
|
194 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
195 |
2% |
11% |
|
196 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
197 |
2% |
9% |
|
198 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
199 |
2% |
7% |
|
200 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
201 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
202 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
203 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
206 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
207 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
208 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
209 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
211 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
212 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
152 |
0% |
100% |
|
153 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
154 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
156 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
157 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
159 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
160 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
161 |
0.2% |
98.6% |
|
162 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
163 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
164 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
165 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
166 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
167 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
168 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
169 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
170 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
172 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
173 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
174 |
1.2% |
91% |
|
175 |
6% |
90% |
|
176 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
177 |
0.7% |
84% |
|
178 |
0.9% |
83% |
|
179 |
3% |
83% |
|
180 |
7% |
79% |
|
181 |
7% |
72% |
|
182 |
3% |
65% |
|
183 |
10% |
62% |
|
184 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
185 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
186 |
14% |
49% |
|
187 |
9% |
35% |
|
188 |
8% |
26% |
|
189 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
190 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
191 |
2% |
17% |
|
192 |
2% |
15% |
|
193 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
194 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
195 |
3% |
10% |
|
196 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
197 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
198 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
199 |
2% |
6% |
|
200 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
201 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
202 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
203 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
205 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
206 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
207 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
208 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
209 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
211 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
212 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
215 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
216 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
217 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0% |
0% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
221 |
0% |
0% |
|
222 |
0% |
0% |
|
223 |
0% |
0% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
225 |
0% |
0% |
|
226 |
0% |
0% |
|
227 |
0% |
0% |
|
228 |
0% |
0% |
|
229 |
0% |
0% |
|
230 |
0% |
0% |
|
231 |
0% |
0% |
|
232 |
0% |
0% |
|
233 |
0% |
0% |
|
234 |
0% |
0% |
|
235 |
0% |
0% |
|
236 |
0% |
0% |
|
237 |
0% |
0% |
|
238 |
0% |
0% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinium
- Commissioner(s): The Observer
- Fieldwork period: 27–29 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2018
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.52%