Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Sunday Times, 28–29 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.9% 41.4–44.5% 40.9–44.9% 40.6–45.3% 39.8–46.1%
Labour Party 41.0% 33.9% 32.5–35.4% 32.1–35.9% 31.7–36.2% 31.0–37.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 333 317–353 313–359 310–364 304–372
Labour Party 262 218 201–230 195–236 191–237 186–243
Liberal Democrats 12 31 30–35 29–36 29–36 26–38
Scottish National Party 35 48 41–51 41–51 40–53 34–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.3% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.0%  
308 0.4% 98.8%  
309 0.8% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.4% 97%  
312 2% 97%  
313 1.0% 95%  
314 1.0% 94%  
315 1.0% 93%  
316 1.0% 92%  
317 1.4% 91% Last Result
318 2% 90%  
319 2% 88%  
320 1.3% 86%  
321 1.2% 84%  
322 2% 83%  
323 4% 81%  
324 2% 77%  
325 2% 75%  
326 4% 73% Majority
327 3% 69%  
328 3% 66%  
329 4% 64%  
330 3% 60%  
331 1.4% 57%  
332 6% 56%  
333 3% 50% Median
334 2% 47%  
335 2% 45%  
336 2% 43%  
337 0.6% 41%  
338 3% 40%  
339 2% 38%  
340 3% 35%  
341 4% 33%  
342 1.2% 29%  
343 3% 28%  
344 2% 25%  
345 2% 23%  
346 2% 20%  
347 1.4% 19%  
348 2% 18%  
349 1.1% 15%  
350 1.3% 14%  
351 1.5% 13%  
352 0.4% 11%  
353 1.3% 11%  
354 1.0% 10%  
355 0.7% 9%  
356 1.1% 8%  
357 0.8% 7%  
358 0.7% 6%  
359 0.5% 5%  
360 0.4% 5%  
361 0.4% 4%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.6% 3%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.4%  
369 0.3% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0.4% 99.7%  
187 0.7% 99.4%  
188 1.0% 98.7%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 0.1% 98%  
191 0.6% 98%  
192 0.4% 97%  
193 0.3% 97%  
194 0.4% 96%  
195 2% 96%  
196 0.2% 94%  
197 0.5% 93%  
198 0.3% 93%  
199 1.2% 93%  
200 0.6% 91%  
201 2% 91%  
202 1.2% 89%  
203 0.6% 88%  
204 2% 87%  
205 1.4% 85%  
206 4% 84%  
207 4% 80%  
208 3% 76%  
209 6% 72%  
210 1.4% 67%  
211 0.4% 65%  
212 0.3% 65%  
213 2% 64%  
214 2% 62%  
215 2% 60%  
216 2% 58%  
217 3% 56%  
218 7% 53% Median
219 3% 46%  
220 1.2% 42%  
221 3% 41%  
222 0.7% 38%  
223 4% 38%  
224 9% 33%  
225 4% 25%  
226 1.1% 20%  
227 1.4% 19%  
228 2% 18%  
229 2% 15%  
230 3% 13%  
231 0.6% 10%  
232 1.4% 9%  
233 0.4% 8%  
234 0.5% 8%  
235 0.8% 7%  
236 3% 6%  
237 1.5% 3%  
238 0.7% 2%  
239 0.5% 1.3%  
240 0.1% 0.7%  
241 0.1% 0.7%  
242 0% 0.6%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.4%  
246 0% 0.4%  
247 0.2% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 0.4% 99.3%  
28 0.8% 98.9%  
29 3% 98%  
30 21% 95%  
31 26% 74% Median
32 20% 48%  
33 15% 28%  
34 0.5% 13%  
35 7% 13%  
36 4% 6%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.7%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.8%  
34 0.2% 99.7%  
35 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.4%  
37 0.4% 99.2%  
38 0.4% 98.8%  
39 0.3% 98%  
40 0.8% 98%  
41 9% 97%  
42 6% 88%  
43 0.3% 82%  
44 0% 82%  
45 8% 82%  
46 0.2% 74%  
47 14% 74%  
48 11% 59% Median
49 0.6% 48%  
50 28% 48%  
51 15% 20%  
52 1.0% 5%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.0% 1.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 4% 34%  
2 15% 30%  
3 14% 15%  
4 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 382 100% 367–399 363–406 360–410 354–415
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 381 100% 366–398 362–405 359–410 354–414
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 364 99.9% 350–384 345–390 344–395 338–402
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 333 75% 318–354 314–360 311–365 305–372
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 333 73% 317–353 313–359 310–364 304–372
Conservative Party 317 333 73% 317–353 313–359 310–364 304–372
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 299 1.0% 279–315 273–319 268–322 260–328
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 298 0.7% 278–314 272–318 267–321 259–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 298 0.6% 277–313 271–317 266–320 259–326
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 267 0% 247–281 241–286 236–287 229–293
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 266 0% 246–280 240–285 235–287 228–292
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 250 0% 233–265 226–269 221–272 217–277
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 249 0% 232–264 225–268 221–271 216–277
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 218 0% 201–232 195–236 191–238 187–244
Labour Party 262 218 0% 201–230 195–236 191–237 186–243

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0% 99.6%  
354 0% 99.5%  
355 0.1% 99.5%  
356 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
357 0.3% 99.2%  
358 0.3% 99.0%  
359 1.2% 98.7%  
360 0.5% 98%  
361 0.5% 97%  
362 0.8% 96%  
363 2% 96%  
364 1.1% 94%  
365 0.6% 93%  
366 1.3% 92%  
367 1.4% 91%  
368 2% 90%  
369 2% 88%  
370 2% 86%  
371 3% 84%  
372 1.5% 81%  
373 3% 80%  
374 4% 77%  
375 3% 73%  
376 5% 70%  
377 2% 65%  
378 3% 63%  
379 5% 60%  
380 2% 55%  
381 2% 53% Median
382 5% 51%  
383 4% 46%  
384 1.1% 42%  
385 1.3% 41%  
386 3% 39%  
387 2% 37%  
388 0.7% 35%  
389 1.3% 34%  
390 3% 33%  
391 3% 30%  
392 5% 27%  
393 2% 22%  
394 4% 20%  
395 1.2% 16%  
396 2% 15%  
397 0.9% 13%  
398 2% 12%  
399 0.9% 10%  
400 0.6% 9%  
401 0.8% 9%  
402 1.1% 8%  
403 0.3% 7%  
404 0.6% 7%  
405 0.9% 6%  
406 1.2% 5%  
407 0.4% 4%  
408 0.2% 3%  
409 0.4% 3%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.5% 2%  
414 0.4% 1.0%  
415 0.3% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.3%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.8%  
350 0% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
353 0% 99.5%  
354 0.1% 99.5%  
355 0.2% 99.4%  
356 0.3% 99.3%  
357 0.4% 99.0%  
358 0.2% 98.6%  
359 1.3% 98%  
360 0.6% 97%  
361 0.9% 96%  
362 0.7% 96%  
363 2% 95%  
364 1.2% 93%  
365 1.0% 92%  
366 1.3% 91%  
367 1.4% 90%  
368 2% 88%  
369 2% 87%  
370 2% 84%  
371 3% 82%  
372 2% 79%  
373 3% 77%  
374 3% 74%  
375 2% 70%  
376 5% 68%  
377 3% 63%  
378 2% 60%  
379 5% 58%  
380 3% 53%  
381 2% 50% Median
382 4% 48%  
383 4% 44%  
384 2% 40%  
385 1.3% 38%  
386 2% 37%  
387 0.9% 35%  
388 1.4% 34%  
389 3% 33%  
390 2% 30%  
391 4% 28%  
392 4% 24%  
393 2% 20%  
394 3% 18%  
395 1.1% 15%  
396 2% 14%  
397 0.6% 12%  
398 2% 12%  
399 1.2% 10%  
400 0.5% 9%  
401 0.5% 8%  
402 1.0% 8%  
403 0.5% 6%  
404 0.7% 6%  
405 0.9% 5%  
406 0.9% 4%  
407 0.3% 3%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.4% 3%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.5% 1.2%  
414 0.3% 0.7%  
415 0.2% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9% Last Result
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.5%  
339 0.1% 99.5%  
340 0.1% 99.4%  
341 0.5% 99.3%  
342 0.5% 98.7%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 2% 98%  
345 1.1% 96%  
346 0.6% 95%  
347 0.8% 94%  
348 0.9% 93%  
349 2% 92%  
350 2% 91%  
351 3% 89%  
352 0.9% 86%  
353 1.5% 86%  
354 2% 84%  
355 4% 82%  
356 3% 78%  
357 5% 75%  
358 1.0% 70%  
359 3% 69%  
360 3% 67%  
361 2% 64%  
362 3% 62%  
363 6% 58%  
364 4% 52% Median
365 3% 48%  
366 2% 46%  
367 1.0% 44%  
368 2% 43%  
369 2% 41%  
370 2% 39%  
371 4% 37%  
372 4% 33%  
373 2% 30%  
374 3% 28%  
375 2% 25%  
376 0.6% 23%  
377 2% 22%  
378 2% 20%  
379 2% 18%  
380 2% 16%  
381 1.3% 14%  
382 1.4% 13%  
383 0.8% 11%  
384 0.7% 11%  
385 1.2% 10%  
386 0.8% 9%  
387 0.7% 8%  
388 1.2% 7%  
389 0.8% 6%  
390 0.3% 5%  
391 0.5% 5%  
392 0.3% 4%  
393 0.6% 4%  
394 0.3% 3%  
395 0.8% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.3%  
400 0.2% 1.0%  
401 0.1% 0.8%  
402 0.2% 0.7%  
403 0.2% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.1% 99.6%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.2% 99.4%  
307 0.1% 99.2%  
308 0.6% 99.1%  
309 0.6% 98.5%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 2% 97%  
313 0.4% 96%  
314 1.1% 95%  
315 1.1% 94%  
316 0.7% 93%  
317 1.3% 92%  
318 2% 91%  
319 2% 89%  
320 1.0% 87%  
321 2% 86% Last Result
322 2% 84%  
323 3% 83%  
324 3% 80%  
325 2% 77%  
326 4% 75% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 2% 69%  
329 5% 67%  
330 3% 62%  
331 1.3% 60%  
332 6% 58%  
333 3% 52% Median
334 2% 49%  
335 2% 47%  
336 2% 45%  
337 1.2% 43%  
338 3% 42%  
339 1.5% 39%  
340 3% 38%  
341 3% 35%  
342 1.4% 32%  
343 4% 30%  
344 2% 27%  
345 2% 24%  
346 2% 22%  
347 2% 20%  
348 2% 18%  
349 1.1% 17%  
350 2% 15%  
351 1.2% 14%  
352 0.6% 13%  
353 2% 12%  
354 1.0% 10%  
355 0.7% 9%  
356 1.2% 9%  
357 0.8% 7%  
358 0.7% 7%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 0.5% 5%  
361 0.4% 5%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.4% 4%  
364 0.7% 4%  
365 0.6% 3%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.4% 1.4%  
370 0.2% 1.0%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.3% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.0%  
308 0.4% 98.8%  
309 0.8% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.4% 97%  
312 2% 97%  
313 1.0% 95%  
314 1.0% 94%  
315 1.0% 93%  
316 1.0% 92%  
317 1.4% 91% Last Result
318 2% 90%  
319 2% 88%  
320 1.3% 86%  
321 1.2% 84%  
322 2% 83%  
323 4% 81%  
324 2% 77%  
325 2% 75%  
326 4% 73% Majority
327 3% 69%  
328 3% 66%  
329 4% 64%  
330 3% 60%  
331 1.4% 57%  
332 6% 56%  
333 3% 50% Median
334 2% 47%  
335 2% 45%  
336 2% 43%  
337 0.6% 41%  
338 3% 40%  
339 2% 38%  
340 3% 35%  
341 4% 33%  
342 1.2% 29%  
343 3% 28%  
344 2% 25%  
345 2% 23%  
346 2% 20%  
347 1.4% 19%  
348 2% 18%  
349 1.1% 15%  
350 1.3% 14%  
351 1.5% 13%  
352 0.4% 11%  
353 1.3% 11%  
354 1.0% 10%  
355 0.7% 9%  
356 1.1% 8%  
357 0.8% 7%  
358 0.7% 6%  
359 0.5% 5%  
360 0.4% 5%  
361 0.4% 4%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.6% 3%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.4%  
369 0.3% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.3% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.0%  
308 0.4% 98.8%  
309 0.8% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.4% 97%  
312 2% 97%  
313 1.0% 95%  
314 1.0% 94%  
315 1.0% 93%  
316 1.0% 92%  
317 1.4% 91% Last Result
318 2% 90%  
319 2% 88%  
320 1.3% 86%  
321 1.2% 84%  
322 2% 83%  
323 4% 81%  
324 2% 77%  
325 2% 75%  
326 4% 73% Majority
327 3% 69%  
328 3% 66%  
329 4% 64%  
330 3% 60%  
331 1.4% 57%  
332 6% 56%  
333 3% 50% Median
334 2% 47%  
335 2% 45%  
336 2% 43%  
337 0.6% 41%  
338 3% 40%  
339 2% 38%  
340 3% 35%  
341 4% 33%  
342 1.2% 29%  
343 3% 28%  
344 2% 25%  
345 2% 23%  
346 2% 20%  
347 1.4% 19%  
348 2% 18%  
349 1.1% 15%  
350 1.3% 14%  
351 1.5% 13%  
352 0.4% 11%  
353 1.3% 11%  
354 1.0% 10%  
355 0.7% 9%  
356 1.1% 8%  
357 0.8% 7%  
358 0.7% 6%  
359 0.5% 5%  
360 0.4% 5%  
361 0.4% 4%  
362 0.4% 4%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.6% 3%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.4%  
369 0.3% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.2% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.4%  
262 0.2% 99.3%  
263 0.3% 99.1%  
264 0.2% 98.8%  
265 0.3% 98.6%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.6% 98%  
269 0.5% 97%  
270 0.4% 96%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.4% 96%  
273 0.5% 95%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 0.8% 94%  
276 1.1% 93%  
277 0.7% 92%  
278 1.0% 91%  
279 1.3% 90%  
280 0.4% 89%  
281 1.5% 89%  
282 1.3% 87%  
283 1.1% 86%  
284 2% 85%  
285 1.4% 82%  
286 2% 81%  
287 2% 80%  
288 2% 77%  
289 3% 75%  
290 1.2% 72%  
291 4% 71%  
292 3% 67%  
293 2% 65%  
294 3% 62%  
295 0.6% 60%  
296 2% 59%  
297 2% 57%  
298 2% 55% Median
299 3% 53%  
300 6% 50%  
301 1.4% 44%  
302 3% 43%  
303 4% 40%  
304 3% 36%  
305 3% 34%  
306 4% 31%  
307 2% 27%  
308 2% 25%  
309 4% 23%  
310 2% 19%  
311 1.2% 17%  
312 1.3% 16%  
313 2% 14%  
314 2% 12% Last Result
315 1.4% 10%  
316 1.0% 9%  
317 1.0% 8%  
318 1.0% 7%  
319 1.0% 6%  
320 2% 5%  
321 0.4% 3%  
322 0.3% 3%  
323 0.8% 2%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.2%  
326 0.3% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.2% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.4%  
261 0.2% 99.3%  
262 0.3% 99.1%  
263 0.2% 98.8%  
264 0.3% 98.6%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.5% 98%  
267 0.6% 98%  
268 0.5% 97%  
269 0.4% 96%  
270 0.4% 96%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.5% 95%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0.8% 94%  
275 1.1% 93%  
276 0.7% 92%  
277 1.0% 91%  
278 1.3% 90%  
279 0.4% 89%  
280 1.5% 89%  
281 1.3% 87%  
282 1.1% 86%  
283 2% 85%  
284 1.4% 82%  
285 2% 81%  
286 2% 80%  
287 2% 77%  
288 3% 75%  
289 1.2% 72%  
290 4% 71%  
291 3% 67%  
292 2% 65%  
293 3% 62%  
294 0.6% 60%  
295 2% 59%  
296 2% 57%  
297 2% 55% Median
298 3% 53%  
299 6% 50%  
300 1.4% 44%  
301 3% 43%  
302 4% 40%  
303 3% 36%  
304 3% 34%  
305 4% 31%  
306 2% 27%  
307 2% 25%  
308 4% 23%  
309 2% 19%  
310 1.2% 17%  
311 1.3% 16%  
312 2% 14%  
313 2% 12% Last Result
314 1.4% 10%  
315 1.0% 9%  
316 1.0% 8%  
317 1.0% 7%  
318 1.0% 6%  
319 2% 5%  
320 0.4% 3%  
321 0.3% 3%  
322 0.8% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.2% 1.2%  
325 0.3% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.2% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.3%  
261 0.2% 99.2%  
262 0.4% 99.0%  
263 0.2% 98.6%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.6% 98%  
267 0.7% 97%  
268 0.4% 96%  
269 0.4% 96%  
270 0.4% 96%  
271 0.5% 95%  
272 0.7% 95%  
273 0.7% 94%  
274 0.8% 93%  
275 1.2% 93%  
276 0.7% 91%  
277 1.0% 91%  
278 2% 90%  
279 0.6% 88%  
280 1.2% 87%  
281 2% 86%  
282 1.1% 85%  
283 2% 83%  
284 2% 82%  
285 2% 80%  
286 2% 78%  
287 2% 76%  
288 4% 73%  
289 1.4% 70%  
290 3% 68%  
291 3% 65%  
292 1.5% 62%  
293 3% 61%  
294 1.2% 58%  
295 2% 57%  
296 2% 55%  
297 2% 53% Median
298 3% 51%  
299 6% 48%  
300 1.3% 42%  
301 3% 40%  
302 5% 38%  
303 2% 33%  
304 2% 31%  
305 4% 29%  
306 2% 25%  
307 3% 23%  
308 3% 20%  
309 2% 17% Last Result
310 2% 16%  
311 1.0% 14%  
312 2% 13%  
313 2% 11%  
314 1.3% 9%  
315 0.7% 8%  
316 1.1% 7%  
317 1.1% 6%  
318 0.4% 5%  
319 2% 4%  
320 0.2% 3%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.6% 2%  
323 0.6% 1.5%  
324 0.1% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.2% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.5%  
230 0.1% 99.3%  
231 0.2% 99.2%  
232 0.3% 99.0%  
233 0.3% 98.7%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.5% 98%  
236 0.8% 98%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 0.6% 97%  
239 0.3% 96%  
240 0.5% 96%  
241 0.3% 95%  
242 0.8% 95%  
243 1.2% 94%  
244 0.7% 93%  
245 0.8% 92%  
246 1.2% 91%  
247 0.7% 90%  
248 0.8% 89%  
249 1.4% 89%  
250 1.3% 87%  
251 2% 86%  
252 2% 84%  
253 2% 82%  
254 2% 80%  
255 0.6% 78%  
256 2% 77%  
257 3% 75%  
258 2% 72%  
259 4% 70%  
260 4% 67%  
261 2% 63%  
262 2% 61%  
263 2% 59%  
264 1.0% 57%  
265 2% 56%  
266 3% 54% Median
267 4% 52%  
268 6% 48%  
269 3% 42%  
270 2% 38%  
271 3% 36%  
272 3% 33%  
273 1.0% 31%  
274 5% 30%  
275 3% 25%  
276 4% 22%  
277 2% 18%  
278 1.5% 16%  
279 0.9% 14%  
280 3% 14%  
281 2% 11%  
282 2% 9%  
283 0.9% 8%  
284 0.8% 7%  
285 0.6% 6%  
286 1.1% 5%  
287 2% 4%  
288 0.6% 2%  
289 0.5% 2%  
290 0.5% 1.3%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.5%  
295 0.1% 0.4%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1% Last Result
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.2% 99.7%  
229 0.3% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.1% 99.0%  
232 0.4% 98.9%  
233 0.4% 98.5%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.6% 98%  
236 0.7% 97%  
237 0.3% 96%  
238 0.5% 96%  
239 0.4% 96%  
240 0.6% 95%  
241 0.6% 95%  
242 0.8% 94%  
243 1.2% 93%  
244 0.4% 92%  
245 1.0% 92%  
246 1.4% 91%  
247 1.1% 89%  
248 1.0% 88%  
249 2% 87%  
250 1.1% 86%  
251 1.4% 85%  
252 2% 83%  
253 2% 82%  
254 3% 79%  
255 1.0% 76%  
256 2% 75%  
257 5% 74%  
258 2% 69%  
259 2% 67%  
260 5% 65%  
261 0.8% 60%  
262 1.1% 59%  
263 3% 58%  
264 2% 55%  
265 2% 53%  
266 2% 51% Median
267 3% 49%  
268 7% 47%  
269 5% 40%  
270 2% 35%  
271 2% 33%  
272 2% 31%  
273 2% 29%  
274 6% 27%  
275 2% 21%  
276 4% 20%  
277 2% 16%  
278 2% 15%  
279 0.7% 12%  
280 2% 12%  
281 2% 10%  
282 1.1% 8%  
283 1.0% 7%  
284 0.7% 6%  
285 1.0% 5%  
286 0.8% 4%  
287 2% 3%  
288 0.5% 2%  
289 0.5% 1.4%  
290 0.3% 0.9%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.5%  
293 0% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.4%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.2% Last Result
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.2% 99.8%  
217 0.3% 99.6%  
218 0.5% 99.3%  
219 0.6% 98.8%  
220 0.4% 98%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.4% 97%  
223 0.3% 97%  
224 0.3% 97%  
225 0.9% 97%  
226 0.9% 96%  
227 0.7% 95%  
228 0.5% 94%  
229 1.0% 94%  
230 0.5% 92%  
231 0.5% 92%  
232 1.2% 91%  
233 2% 90%  
234 0.6% 88%  
235 2% 88%  
236 1.1% 86%  
237 3% 85%  
238 2% 82%  
239 4% 80%  
240 4% 76%  
241 2% 72%  
242 3% 70%  
243 1.4% 67%  
244 0.9% 66%  
245 2% 65%  
246 1.3% 63%  
247 2% 62%  
248 4% 60%  
249 4% 56% Median
250 2% 52%  
251 3% 50%  
252 5% 47%  
253 2% 42%  
254 3% 40%  
255 5% 37%  
256 2% 32%  
257 3% 30%  
258 3% 26%  
259 2% 23%  
260 3% 21%  
261 2% 18%  
262 2% 16%  
263 2% 13%  
264 1.4% 12%  
265 1.3% 10%  
266 1.0% 9%  
267 1.2% 8%  
268 2% 7%  
269 0.7% 5%  
270 0.9% 4%  
271 0.6% 4%  
272 1.3% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.4% 1.4%  
275 0.3% 1.0%  
276 0.2% 0.7%  
277 0.1% 0.6%  
278 0% 0.5% Last Result
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0.1% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.3% 99.7%  
217 0.4% 99.4%  
218 0.5% 99.0%  
219 0.5% 98%  
220 0.3% 98%  
221 0.4% 98%  
222 0.4% 97%  
223 0.2% 97%  
224 0.4% 97%  
225 1.2% 96%  
226 0.9% 95%  
227 0.6% 94%  
228 0.3% 93%  
229 1.1% 93%  
230 0.8% 92%  
231 0.6% 91%  
232 0.9% 91%  
233 2% 90%  
234 0.9% 88%  
235 2% 87%  
236 1.2% 85%  
237 4% 84%  
238 2% 80%  
239 5% 78%  
240 3% 73%  
241 3% 70%  
242 1.3% 67%  
243 0.7% 66%  
244 2% 65%  
245 3% 63%  
246 1.3% 61%  
247 1.1% 59%  
248 4% 58%  
249 5% 54% Median
250 2% 49%  
251 2% 47%  
252 5% 45%  
253 3% 40%  
254 2% 37%  
255 5% 35%  
256 3% 30%  
257 4% 27%  
258 3% 23%  
259 1.5% 20%  
260 3% 19%  
261 2% 16%  
262 2% 14%  
263 2% 12%  
264 1.4% 10%  
265 1.3% 9%  
266 0.6% 8%  
267 1.1% 7%  
268 2% 6%  
269 0.8% 4%  
270 0.5% 4%  
271 0.5% 3%  
272 1.2% 2%  
273 0.3% 1.3%  
274 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
275 0.2% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.6%  
277 0% 0.5%  
278 0% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0.2% 99.8%  
187 0.4% 99.6%  
188 0.9% 99.1%  
189 0.2% 98%  
190 0.3% 98%  
191 0.5% 98%  
192 0.2% 97%  
193 0.3% 97%  
194 0.1% 97%  
195 2% 97%  
196 0.3% 94%  
197 1.0% 94%  
198 0.1% 93%  
199 1.0% 93%  
200 0.2% 92%  
201 2% 92%  
202 1.2% 90%  
203 0.8% 89%  
204 1.4% 88%  
205 1.0% 86%  
206 3% 85%  
207 4% 82%  
208 3% 79%  
209 5% 76%  
210 3% 70%  
211 2% 68%  
212 0.5% 65%  
213 0.8% 65%  
214 1.3% 64%  
215 2% 63%  
216 2% 61%  
217 3% 59%  
218 6% 55% Median
219 4% 49%  
220 2% 45%  
221 4% 43%  
222 0.3% 39%  
223 3% 39%  
224 7% 36%  
225 4% 29%  
226 4% 25%  
227 3% 22%  
228 2% 19%  
229 2% 17%  
230 3% 15%  
231 1.4% 12%  
232 1.4% 10%  
233 1.0% 9%  
234 0.5% 8%  
235 0.1% 7%  
236 2% 7%  
237 2% 5%  
238 1.2% 3%  
239 0.7% 2%  
240 0.4% 1.1%  
241 0.1% 0.7%  
242 0% 0.6%  
243 0.1% 0.6%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0% 0.4%  
246 0% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.4%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
181 0% 100%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0.4% 99.7%  
187 0.7% 99.4%  
188 1.0% 98.7%  
189 0.1% 98%  
190 0.1% 98%  
191 0.6% 98%  
192 0.4% 97%  
193 0.3% 97%  
194 0.4% 96%  
195 2% 96%  
196 0.2% 94%  
197 0.5% 93%  
198 0.3% 93%  
199 1.2% 93%  
200 0.6% 91%  
201 2% 91%  
202 1.2% 89%  
203 0.6% 88%  
204 2% 87%  
205 1.4% 85%  
206 4% 84%  
207 4% 80%  
208 3% 76%  
209 6% 72%  
210 1.4% 67%  
211 0.4% 65%  
212 0.3% 65%  
213 2% 64%  
214 2% 62%  
215 2% 60%  
216 2% 58%  
217 3% 56%  
218 7% 53% Median
219 3% 46%  
220 1.2% 42%  
221 3% 41%  
222 0.7% 38%  
223 4% 38%  
224 9% 33%  
225 4% 25%  
226 1.1% 20%  
227 1.4% 19%  
228 2% 18%  
229 2% 15%  
230 3% 13%  
231 0.6% 10%  
232 1.4% 9%  
233 0.4% 8%  
234 0.5% 8%  
235 0.8% 7%  
236 3% 6%  
237 1.5% 3%  
238 0.7% 2%  
239 0.5% 1.3%  
240 0.1% 0.7%  
241 0.1% 0.7%  
242 0% 0.6%  
243 0.1% 0.5%  
244 0% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.4%  
246 0% 0.4%  
247 0.2% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations