Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 4–6 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.9% 41.5–44.3% 41.1–44.7% 40.8–45.1% 40.1–45.7%
Labour Party 41.0% 33.9% 32.6–35.3% 32.2–35.7% 31.9–36.0% 31.2–36.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.7% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 334 318–350 315–356 312–362 306–369
Labour Party 262 213 199–227 193–229 190–233 185–236
Liberal Democrats 12 31 29–33 29–35 28–35 27–37
Scottish National Party 35 48 41–51 41–51 41–51 37–53
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 3–8 3–9

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.4% 99.4%  
309 0.2% 99.0%  
310 0.3% 98.8%  
311 0.8% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 0.9% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 1.1% 94%  
317 0.8% 93% Last Result
318 2% 92%  
319 1.1% 90%  
320 1.1% 89%  
321 3% 88%  
322 2% 85%  
323 2% 83%  
324 2% 80%  
325 5% 78%  
326 3% 73% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 2% 69%  
329 2% 66%  
330 5% 64%  
331 2% 59%  
332 2% 57%  
333 4% 56%  
334 3% 51% Median
335 2% 48%  
336 2% 46%  
337 3% 44%  
338 2% 40%  
339 3% 38%  
340 3% 35%  
341 3% 33%  
342 5% 30%  
343 0.9% 25%  
344 2% 24%  
345 1.2% 21%  
346 2% 20%  
347 5% 18%  
348 0.9% 14%  
349 1.5% 13%  
350 2% 11%  
351 0.8% 10%  
352 1.2% 9%  
353 0.6% 8%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.9% 6%  
356 0.6% 5%  
357 0.7% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 0.3% 3%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.9% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.2% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.6%  
185 0.2% 99.5%  
186 0.7% 99.4%  
187 0.2% 98.7%  
188 0.1% 98.5%  
189 0.5% 98%  
190 1.3% 98%  
191 0.3% 97%  
192 0.4% 96%  
193 2% 96%  
194 0.2% 94%  
195 0.4% 94%  
196 0.1% 94%  
197 1.0% 94%  
198 2% 93%  
199 1.3% 91%  
200 0.3% 89%  
201 1.2% 89%  
202 1.4% 88%  
203 3% 86%  
204 1.5% 83%  
205 4% 82%  
206 3% 78%  
207 8% 75%  
208 4% 67%  
209 1.1% 64%  
210 1.1% 62%  
211 3% 61%  
212 3% 58%  
213 6% 55% Median
214 3% 49%  
215 2% 46%  
216 3% 44%  
217 6% 41%  
218 1.4% 35%  
219 2% 33%  
220 0.8% 32%  
221 3% 31%  
222 8% 28%  
223 5% 20%  
224 2% 16%  
225 3% 14%  
226 1.2% 11%  
227 2% 10%  
228 0.2% 9%  
229 5% 8%  
230 0.4% 4%  
231 0.2% 4%  
232 0.4% 3%  
233 1.4% 3%  
234 0.3% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.3%  
236 0.4% 0.8%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0.1% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.5%  
28 2% 99.0%  
29 13% 97%  
30 21% 85%  
31 28% 64% Median
32 23% 35%  
33 3% 12%  
34 4% 10%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.4% 99.6%  
38 0.2% 99.2%  
39 0.6% 99.1%  
40 0.4% 98%  
41 12% 98%  
42 7% 86%  
43 1.3% 80%  
44 0% 78%  
45 10% 78%  
46 0.2% 69%  
47 17% 68%  
48 15% 52% Median
49 0.2% 37%  
50 24% 37%  
51 11% 13%  
52 0.3% 2%  
53 1.2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 27% 97% Last Result
5 49% 69% Median
6 6% 21%  
7 2% 15%  
8 12% 13%  
9 0.5% 0.8%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 386 100% 372–401 370–408 366–410 361–417
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 381 100% 367–396 364–402 361–405 357–411
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 365 100% 351–380 347–387 344–392 340–399
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 339 87% 323–356 320–362 317–367 311–374
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 334 73% 318–350 315–356 312–362 306–369
Conservative Party 317 334 73% 318–350 315–356 312–362 306–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 298 0.5% 282–314 276–317 270–320 263–326
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 297 0.4% 281–313 275–316 269–319 262–325
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 292 0.1% 275–308 269–311 264–314 257–320
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 266 0% 251–280 244–284 239–287 232–291
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 261 0% 245–276 239–279 234–281 227–287
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 250 0% 235–264 229–267 226–270 220–274
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 245 0% 230–259 223–261 221–265 214–270
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 219 0% 204–232 199–234 196–238 190–241
Labour Party 262 213 0% 199–227 193–229 190–233 185–236

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.2% 99.4%  
363 0.4% 99.3%  
364 0.3% 98.8%  
365 0.4% 98.5%  
366 1.1% 98%  
367 0.4% 97%  
368 0.5% 97%  
369 1.1% 96%  
370 3% 95%  
371 0.9% 92%  
372 0.9% 91%  
373 2% 90%  
374 2% 88%  
375 2% 86%  
376 4% 84%  
377 4% 80%  
378 4% 77%  
379 2% 73%  
380 2% 71%  
381 3% 68%  
382 2% 66%  
383 6% 64%  
384 2% 57%  
385 4% 55%  
386 1.3% 51%  
387 5% 50% Median
388 4% 45%  
389 2% 41%  
390 1.3% 39%  
391 1.5% 37%  
392 3% 36%  
393 3% 33%  
394 7% 30%  
395 3% 22%  
396 1.0% 20%  
397 2% 19%  
398 2% 16%  
399 2% 14%  
400 2% 12%  
401 0.4% 10%  
402 1.4% 10%  
403 0.8% 8%  
404 1.2% 8%  
405 0.5% 6%  
406 0.3% 6%  
407 0.4% 5%  
408 0.8% 5%  
409 0.9% 4%  
410 1.1% 3%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 1.5%  
415 0.4% 1.3%  
416 0.4% 0.9%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.2% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8% Last Result
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.7%  
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 99.5%  
358 0.4% 99.3%  
359 0.4% 98.9%  
360 0.4% 98.6%  
361 1.0% 98%  
362 0.4% 97%  
363 0.9% 97%  
364 1.2% 96%  
365 2% 95%  
366 2% 92%  
367 0.9% 91%  
368 0.3% 90%  
369 3% 89%  
370 2% 86%  
371 3% 84%  
372 4% 81%  
373 5% 78%  
374 3% 73%  
375 3% 70%  
376 3% 67%  
377 2% 64%  
378 4% 62%  
379 4% 58%  
380 3% 54%  
381 2% 51%  
382 4% 49% Median
383 2% 45%  
384 4% 43%  
385 2% 39%  
386 0.5% 36%  
387 2% 36%  
388 4% 34%  
389 7% 30%  
390 4% 23%  
391 1.2% 19%  
392 4% 18%  
393 2% 14%  
394 0.9% 12%  
395 1.0% 11%  
396 1.3% 10%  
397 1.4% 9%  
398 0.9% 7%  
399 0.5% 6%  
400 0.3% 6%  
401 0.6% 6%  
402 0.5% 5%  
403 0.3% 5%  
404 2% 4%  
405 0.3% 3%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.4% 2%  
408 0.3% 1.5%  
409 0.1% 1.2%  
410 0.2% 1.1%  
411 0.5% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.7%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.3% 99.3%  
342 0.3% 99.0%  
343 0.9% 98.7%  
344 0.3% 98%  
345 0.5% 97%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 2% 96%  
348 1.0% 94%  
349 0.9% 93%  
350 2% 92%  
351 2% 90%  
352 2% 89%  
353 3% 87%  
354 3% 84%  
355 3% 81%  
356 2% 79%  
357 4% 76%  
358 3% 72%  
359 2% 70%  
360 3% 68%  
361 3% 65%  
362 3% 62%  
363 3% 59%  
364 4% 55%  
365 3% 51% Median
366 0.6% 48%  
367 3% 47%  
368 4% 44%  
369 2% 40%  
370 4% 38%  
371 1.2% 34%  
372 6% 33%  
373 3% 27%  
374 2% 24%  
375 2% 22%  
376 1.3% 21%  
377 4% 19%  
378 2% 15%  
379 2% 13%  
380 2% 12%  
381 0.5% 9%  
382 1.1% 9%  
383 0.9% 8%  
384 0.5% 7%  
385 0.9% 7%  
386 0.5% 6%  
387 0.6% 5%  
388 0.8% 4%  
389 0.5% 4%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.2% 3%  
392 0.9% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.3% 1.2%  
395 0.2% 0.9%  
396 0.1% 0.7%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0% 0.5%  
399 0.3% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.6%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.2% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.2%  
314 0.3% 99.0%  
315 0.5% 98.8%  
316 0.6% 98%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.4% 97%  
319 1.4% 97%  
320 2% 95%  
321 0.4% 93% Last Result
322 0.8% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 1.0% 90%  
325 2% 89%  
326 3% 87% Majority
327 2% 84%  
328 2% 82%  
329 4% 81%  
330 3% 77%  
331 2% 74%  
332 3% 72%  
333 3% 69%  
334 1.4% 66%  
335 5% 65%  
336 2% 60%  
337 2% 58%  
338 4% 55%  
339 3% 51% Median
340 3% 49%  
341 3% 46%  
342 2% 43%  
343 2% 41%  
344 4% 39%  
345 2% 35%  
346 2% 33%  
347 5% 31%  
348 2% 26%  
349 2% 24%  
350 1.3% 22%  
351 2% 21%  
352 5% 19%  
353 1.2% 14%  
354 2% 13%  
355 0.8% 11%  
356 1.1% 10%  
357 1.4% 9%  
358 0.6% 8%  
359 0.9% 7%  
360 0.6% 6%  
361 0.4% 6%  
362 1.0% 5%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.5% 4%  
365 0.4% 4%  
366 0.2% 3%  
367 0.4% 3%  
368 1.2% 2%  
369 0.1% 1.3%  
370 0.2% 1.2%  
371 0.2% 1.0%  
372 0.1% 0.8%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.2% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.4% 99.4%  
309 0.2% 99.0%  
310 0.3% 98.8%  
311 0.8% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 0.9% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 1.1% 94%  
317 0.8% 93% Last Result
318 2% 92%  
319 1.1% 90%  
320 1.1% 89%  
321 3% 88%  
322 2% 85%  
323 2% 83%  
324 2% 80%  
325 5% 78%  
326 3% 73% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 2% 69%  
329 2% 66%  
330 5% 64%  
331 2% 59%  
332 2% 57%  
333 4% 56%  
334 3% 51% Median
335 2% 48%  
336 2% 46%  
337 3% 44%  
338 2% 40%  
339 3% 38%  
340 3% 35%  
341 3% 33%  
342 5% 30%  
343 0.9% 25%  
344 2% 24%  
345 1.2% 21%  
346 2% 20%  
347 5% 18%  
348 0.9% 14%  
349 1.5% 13%  
350 2% 11%  
351 0.8% 10%  
352 1.2% 9%  
353 0.6% 8%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.9% 6%  
356 0.6% 5%  
357 0.7% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 0.3% 3%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.9% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.2% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.4% 99.4%  
309 0.2% 99.0%  
310 0.3% 98.8%  
311 0.8% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 0.9% 97%  
315 2% 96%  
316 1.1% 94%  
317 0.8% 93% Last Result
318 2% 92%  
319 1.1% 90%  
320 1.1% 89%  
321 3% 88%  
322 2% 85%  
323 2% 83%  
324 2% 80%  
325 5% 78%  
326 3% 73% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 2% 69%  
329 2% 66%  
330 5% 64%  
331 2% 59%  
332 2% 57%  
333 4% 56%  
334 3% 51% Median
335 2% 48%  
336 2% 46%  
337 3% 44%  
338 2% 40%  
339 3% 38%  
340 3% 35%  
341 3% 33%  
342 5% 30%  
343 0.9% 25%  
344 2% 24%  
345 1.2% 21%  
346 2% 20%  
347 5% 18%  
348 0.9% 14%  
349 1.5% 13%  
350 2% 11%  
351 0.8% 10%  
352 1.2% 9%  
353 0.6% 8%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.9% 6%  
356 0.6% 5%  
357 0.7% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 0.3% 3%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.9% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.2% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.2% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.4%  
266 0.2% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.2%  
268 0.3% 99.1%  
269 0.9% 98.8%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 0.5% 96%  
275 0.7% 96%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 0.9% 95%  
278 0.7% 94%  
279 0.6% 93%  
280 1.2% 92%  
281 0.8% 91%  
282 2% 90%  
283 1.5% 89%  
284 0.9% 87%  
285 5% 86%  
286 2% 82%  
287 1.2% 80%  
288 2% 79%  
289 0.9% 76%  
290 5% 75%  
291 3% 70%  
292 3% 67%  
293 3% 65%  
294 2% 62%  
295 3% 60%  
296 2% 56%  
297 2% 54%  
298 3% 52% Median
299 4% 49%  
300 2% 44%  
301 2% 43%  
302 5% 41%  
303 2% 36%  
304 2% 34%  
305 2% 31%  
306 3% 29%  
307 5% 27%  
308 2% 22%  
309 2% 20%  
310 2% 17%  
311 3% 15%  
312 1.1% 12%  
313 1.1% 11%  
314 2% 10% Last Result
315 0.8% 8%  
316 1.1% 7%  
317 2% 6%  
318 0.9% 4%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.8% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.2%  
324 0.4% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0.2% 0.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.2% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.5%  
264 0.1% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.2%  
267 0.3% 99.1%  
268 0.9% 98.8%  
269 0.5% 98%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.5% 96%  
274 0.7% 96%  
275 0.6% 95%  
276 0.9% 95%  
277 0.7% 94%  
278 0.6% 93%  
279 1.2% 92%  
280 0.8% 91%  
281 2% 90%  
282 1.5% 89%  
283 0.9% 87%  
284 5% 86%  
285 2% 82%  
286 1.2% 80%  
287 2% 79%  
288 0.9% 76%  
289 5% 75%  
290 3% 70%  
291 3% 67%  
292 3% 65%  
293 2% 62%  
294 3% 60%  
295 2% 56%  
296 2% 54%  
297 3% 52% Median
298 4% 49%  
299 2% 44%  
300 2% 43%  
301 5% 41%  
302 2% 36%  
303 2% 34%  
304 2% 31%  
305 3% 29%  
306 5% 27%  
307 2% 22%  
308 2% 20%  
309 2% 17%  
310 3% 15%  
311 1.1% 12%  
312 1.1% 11%  
313 2% 10% Last Result
314 0.8% 8%  
315 1.1% 7%  
316 2% 6%  
317 0.9% 4%  
318 0.6% 3%  
319 0.5% 3%  
320 0.8% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.2%  
323 0.4% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.6%  
325 0.2% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Majority
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0.1% 99.5%  
259 0.1% 99.3%  
260 0.2% 99.2%  
261 0.2% 99.0%  
262 0.1% 98.8%  
263 1.2% 98.7%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 0.2% 97%  
266 0.4% 97%  
267 0.5% 96%  
268 0.5% 96%  
269 1.0% 96%  
270 0.4% 95%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 0.9% 94%  
273 0.6% 93%  
274 1.4% 92%  
275 1.1% 91%  
276 0.8% 90%  
277 2% 89%  
278 1.2% 87%  
279 5% 86%  
280 2% 81%  
281 1.3% 79%  
282 2% 78%  
283 2% 76%  
284 5% 74%  
285 2% 69%  
286 2% 67%  
287 4% 65%  
288 2% 61%  
289 2% 59%  
290 3% 57%  
291 3% 54%  
292 3% 51% Median
293 4% 49%  
294 2% 45%  
295 2% 42%  
296 5% 40%  
297 1.4% 35%  
298 3% 34%  
299 3% 31%  
300 2% 28%  
301 3% 26%  
302 4% 23%  
303 2% 19%  
304 2% 18%  
305 3% 16%  
306 2% 13%  
307 1.0% 11%  
308 2% 10%  
309 0.8% 8% Last Result
310 0.4% 7%  
311 2% 7%  
312 1.4% 5%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.5% 3%  
315 0.6% 2%  
316 0.5% 2%  
317 0.3% 1.2%  
318 0.2% 1.0%  
319 0.2% 0.8%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.3% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.5%  
234 0.1% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.4%  
236 0.2% 99.3%  
237 0.3% 99.1%  
238 0.4% 98.8%  
239 0.9% 98%  
240 0.2% 97%  
241 0.4% 97%  
242 0.5% 97%  
243 0.8% 96%  
244 0.6% 96%  
245 0.5% 95%  
246 0.9% 94%  
247 0.5% 93%  
248 0.9% 93%  
249 1.1% 92%  
250 0.5% 91%  
251 2% 91%  
252 2% 88%  
253 2% 87%  
254 4% 85%  
255 1.3% 81%  
256 2% 79%  
257 2% 78%  
258 3% 76%  
259 6% 73%  
260 1.2% 67%  
261 4% 66%  
262 2% 62%  
263 4% 60%  
264 3% 56%  
265 0.6% 53%  
266 3% 52% Median
267 4% 49%  
268 3% 45%  
269 3% 41%  
270 3% 38%  
271 3% 35%  
272 2% 32%  
273 3% 30%  
274 4% 28%  
275 2% 24%  
276 3% 21%  
277 3% 19%  
278 3% 16%  
279 2% 13%  
280 2% 11%  
281 2% 10%  
282 0.9% 8%  
283 1.0% 7%  
284 2% 6%  
285 0.7% 4%  
286 0.5% 3%  
287 0.3% 3%  
288 0.9% 2%  
289 0.3% 1.3%  
290 0.3% 1.0%  
291 0.2% 0.7%  
292 0.2% 0.5%  
293 0% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.2% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.1% 99.4%  
230 0.2% 99.3%  
231 0.3% 99.1%  
232 0.4% 98.8%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 1.1% 98%  
235 0.2% 97%  
236 0.4% 97%  
237 0.7% 96%  
238 0.7% 96%  
239 0.8% 95%  
240 0.9% 94%  
241 0.3% 93%  
242 0.6% 93%  
243 0.6% 93%  
244 1.5% 92%  
245 1.1% 90%  
246 1.2% 89%  
247 2% 88%  
248 2% 86%  
249 4% 84%  
250 2% 80%  
251 1.5% 78%  
252 0.8% 77%  
253 4% 76%  
254 4% 72%  
255 3% 68%  
256 3% 64%  
257 2% 62%  
258 3% 59%  
259 3% 56%  
260 2% 53%  
261 3% 51% Median
262 3% 48%  
263 4% 45%  
264 4% 42%  
265 4% 38%  
266 2% 34%  
267 2% 32%  
268 3% 30%  
269 1.4% 27%  
270 4% 25%  
271 2% 21%  
272 2% 19%  
273 3% 16%  
274 1.2% 13%  
275 2% 12%  
276 2% 10%  
277 0.8% 8%  
278 0.4% 7%  
279 2% 6%  
280 1.0% 4%  
281 0.5% 3%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.7% 2%  
284 0.5% 1.5%  
285 0.2% 1.0%  
286 0.3% 0.8%  
287 0.2% 0.6%  
288 0% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.2% 99.8%  
220 0.5% 99.6%  
221 0.2% 99.1%  
222 0.1% 98.9%  
223 0.3% 98.8%  
224 0.4% 98.5%  
225 0.4% 98%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 2% 97%  
228 0.3% 96%  
229 0.5% 95%  
230 0.6% 95%  
231 0.3% 94%  
232 0.5% 94%  
233 0.9% 94%  
234 1.4% 93%  
235 1.3% 91%  
236 1.0% 90%  
237 0.9% 89%  
238 2% 88%  
239 4% 86%  
240 1.2% 82%  
241 4% 81%  
242 7% 77%  
243 4% 70%  
244 2% 66%  
245 0.5% 64%  
246 2% 64%  
247 4% 61%  
248 2% 57%  
249 4% 55% Median
250 2% 51%  
251 3% 49%  
252 4% 46%  
253 4% 42%  
254 2% 38%  
255 3% 36%  
256 3% 33%  
257 3% 30%  
258 5% 27%  
259 4% 22%  
260 3% 19%  
261 2% 16%  
262 3% 14%  
263 0.3% 11%  
264 0.9% 10%  
265 2% 9%  
266 2% 8%  
267 1.2% 5%  
268 0.9% 4%  
269 0.4% 3%  
270 1.0% 3%  
271 0.4% 2%  
272 0.4% 1.4%  
273 0.4% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.9%  
212 0.2% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.4% 99.5%  
216 0.4% 99.1%  
217 0.2% 98.7%  
218 0.2% 98.5%  
219 0.4% 98%  
220 0.3% 98%  
221 1.1% 98%  
222 0.9% 97%  
223 0.8% 96%  
224 0.4% 95%  
225 0.3% 95%  
226 0.5% 94%  
227 1.2% 94%  
228 0.8% 92%  
229 1.4% 92%  
230 0.4% 90%  
231 2% 90%  
232 2% 88%  
233 2% 86%  
234 2% 84%  
235 1.0% 81%  
236 3% 80%  
237 7% 78%  
238 3% 70%  
239 3% 67%  
240 1.5% 64%  
241 1.3% 63%  
242 2% 61%  
243 4% 59%  
244 5% 55% Median
245 1.3% 50%  
246 4% 49%  
247 2% 45%  
248 6% 43%  
249 2% 36%  
250 3% 34%  
251 2% 32%  
252 2% 29%  
253 4% 27%  
254 4% 23%  
255 4% 20%  
256 2% 16%  
257 2% 14%  
258 2% 12%  
259 0.9% 10%  
260 0.9% 9%  
261 3% 8%  
262 1.1% 5%  
263 0.5% 4%  
264 0.4% 3%  
265 1.1% 3%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.3% 1.5%  
268 0.4% 1.2%  
269 0.2% 0.7%  
270 0.1% 0.6%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0.1% 0.3%  
274 0% 0.2% Last Result
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.4% 99.8%  
191 0.6% 99.4%  
192 0% 98.8%  
193 0.1% 98.8%  
194 0.8% 98.7%  
195 0.3% 98%  
196 0.9% 98%  
197 0.5% 97%  
198 1.0% 96%  
199 0.3% 95%  
200 0.7% 95%  
201 0.2% 94%  
202 0.4% 94%  
203 1.3% 93%  
204 2% 92%  
205 0.1% 90%  
206 0.7% 90%  
207 2% 89%  
208 2% 87%  
209 2% 85%  
210 5% 83%  
211 4% 79%  
212 9% 74%  
213 1.4% 65%  
214 0.3% 64%  
215 1.2% 63%  
216 6% 62%  
217 2% 56%  
218 4% 54% Median
219 3% 50%  
220 3% 48%  
221 4% 45%  
222 6% 41%  
223 1.2% 35%  
224 0.2% 34%  
225 0.8% 34%  
226 6% 33%  
227 7% 27%  
228 4% 19%  
229 2% 15%  
230 2% 14%  
231 2% 12%  
232 1.2% 10%  
233 1.3% 9%  
234 4% 8%  
235 0.2% 4%  
236 0.1% 4%  
237 0.6% 4%  
238 2% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.5% 1.2%  
241 0.3% 0.7%  
242 0.1% 0.4%  
243 0% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.3%  
245 0.1% 0.2%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.7%  
184 0% 99.6%  
185 0.2% 99.5%  
186 0.7% 99.4%  
187 0.2% 98.7%  
188 0.1% 98.5%  
189 0.5% 98%  
190 1.3% 98%  
191 0.3% 97%  
192 0.4% 96%  
193 2% 96%  
194 0.2% 94%  
195 0.4% 94%  
196 0.1% 94%  
197 1.0% 94%  
198 2% 93%  
199 1.3% 91%  
200 0.3% 89%  
201 1.2% 89%  
202 1.4% 88%  
203 3% 86%  
204 1.5% 83%  
205 4% 82%  
206 3% 78%  
207 8% 75%  
208 4% 67%  
209 1.1% 64%  
210 1.1% 62%  
211 3% 61%  
212 3% 58%  
213 6% 55% Median
214 3% 49%  
215 2% 46%  
216 3% 44%  
217 6% 41%  
218 1.4% 35%  
219 2% 33%  
220 0.8% 32%  
221 3% 31%  
222 8% 28%  
223 5% 20%  
224 2% 16%  
225 3% 14%  
226 1.2% 11%  
227 2% 10%  
228 0.2% 9%  
229 5% 8%  
230 0.4% 4%  
231 0.2% 4%  
232 0.4% 3%  
233 1.4% 3%  
234 0.3% 2%  
235 0.4% 1.3%  
236 0.4% 0.8%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0% 0.3%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0.1% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations