Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Sunday Times, 5–6 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 42.9% 41.4–44.5% 40.9–44.9% 40.6–45.3% 39.8–46.1%
Labour Party 41.0% 32.9% 31.5–34.4% 31.1–34.8% 30.7–35.2% 30.0–35.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.0–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 343 323–362 320–366 316–370 309–375
Labour Party 262 208 192–224 187–227 186–232 182–237
Liberal Democrats 12 31 30–35 30–36 29–36 27–38
Scottish National Party 35 48 41–51 41–51 40–53 35–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.4% 97% Last Result
318 0.6% 97%  
319 1.2% 96%  
320 0.5% 95%  
321 2% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.9% 91%  
324 1.1% 90%  
325 2% 89%  
326 2% 87% Majority
327 1.3% 85%  
328 1.1% 84%  
329 3% 83%  
330 3% 80%  
331 2% 77%  
332 3% 75%  
333 2% 73%  
334 1.3% 71%  
335 2% 70%  
336 2% 68%  
337 3% 66%  
338 2% 63%  
339 2% 61%  
340 2% 59%  
341 3% 57%  
342 2% 54%  
343 3% 51% Median
344 5% 49%  
345 3% 43%  
346 3% 41%  
347 3% 38%  
348 1.5% 35%  
349 3% 33%  
350 3% 30%  
351 3% 27%  
352 2% 24%  
353 1.1% 23%  
354 3% 22%  
355 1.0% 19%  
356 1.0% 18%  
357 0.6% 17%  
358 2% 17%  
359 2% 15%  
360 0.8% 13%  
361 2% 12%  
362 2% 10%  
363 1.4% 8%  
364 0.9% 7%  
365 1.0% 6%  
366 0.7% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.5% 4%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.1% 99.6%  
183 0.4% 99.5%  
184 0% 99.0%  
185 0.3% 99.0%  
186 2% 98.7%  
187 2% 97%  
188 2% 95%  
189 0.4% 93%  
190 0.3% 93%  
191 2% 92%  
192 1.0% 90%  
193 2% 89%  
194 0.7% 88%  
195 4% 87%  
196 0.5% 83%  
197 1.0% 82%  
198 1.3% 81%  
199 3% 80%  
200 1.4% 77%  
201 1.4% 75%  
202 0.9% 74%  
203 1.4% 73%  
204 5% 72%  
205 3% 67%  
206 4% 64%  
207 8% 59%  
208 4% 51% Median
209 6% 47%  
210 2% 42%  
211 0.6% 40%  
212 0.9% 39%  
213 3% 38%  
214 2% 36%  
215 1.4% 33%  
216 0.9% 32%  
217 3% 31%  
218 5% 28%  
219 3% 23%  
220 0.8% 20%  
221 0.4% 19%  
222 0.6% 19%  
223 3% 18%  
224 6% 15%  
225 2% 9%  
226 1.2% 7%  
227 1.3% 6%  
228 0.4% 5%  
229 0.3% 5%  
230 1.4% 4%  
231 0.3% 3%  
232 0.5% 3%  
233 0.1% 2%  
234 0.1% 2%  
235 0.4% 2%  
236 0.7% 1.4%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.2% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 1.1% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 26% 96%  
31 23% 69% Median
32 18% 47%  
33 16% 28%  
34 0.6% 12%  
35 5% 12%  
36 5% 6%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.7%  
35 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.4%  
37 0.6% 99.3%  
38 0.3% 98.7%  
39 0.4% 98%  
40 0.5% 98%  
41 10% 97%  
42 5% 87%  
43 2% 82%  
44 0% 80%  
45 10% 80%  
46 0.3% 70%  
47 12% 70%  
48 17% 58% Median
49 0.2% 41%  
50 23% 41%  
51 14% 18%  
52 0.7% 4%  
53 2% 3%  
54 1.1% 1.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 3% 34%  
2 13% 31%  
3 16% 18%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 392 100% 374–408 370–413 366–414 360–419
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 391 100% 373–408 369–412 365–414 358–418
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 374 100% 356–393 353–396 349–401 342–405
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 344 89% 325–362 321–366 317–371 310–376
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 343 87% 323–362 320–366 316–370 309–375
Conservative Party 317 343 87% 323–362 320–366 316–370 309–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 289 0.3% 270–309 266–312 262–316 257–323
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 288 0.2% 269–308 265–311 261–315 256–322
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 287 0.2% 269–306 265–310 260–314 255–321
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 257 0% 238–275 235–278 230–282 226–289
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 256 0% 238–274 234–277 229–281 225–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 240 0% 223–258 219–262 217–266 213–273
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 239 0% 223–257 218–261 217–265 212–271
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 209 0% 193–226 188–229 187–233 183–238
Labour Party 262 208 0% 192–224 187–227 186–232 182–237

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.8% Last Result
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.1% 99.3%  
362 0.4% 99.2%  
363 0.5% 98.8%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.4% 98%  
366 0.5% 98%  
367 0.4% 97%  
368 0.4% 97%  
369 1.2% 96%  
370 1.2% 95%  
371 1.4% 94%  
372 0.8% 93%  
373 2% 92%  
374 2% 90%  
375 2% 88%  
376 3% 86%  
377 3% 83%  
378 1.1% 80%  
379 0.8% 79%  
380 4% 79%  
381 2% 75%  
382 3% 73%  
383 2% 70%  
384 2% 68%  
385 2% 67%  
386 3% 64%  
387 2% 62%  
388 2% 60%  
389 2% 59%  
390 2% 57%  
391 3% 54% Median
392 6% 51%  
393 5% 46%  
394 5% 40%  
395 3% 35%  
396 2% 32%  
397 2% 30%  
398 2% 27%  
399 1.5% 26%  
400 2% 24%  
401 2% 23%  
402 2% 21%  
403 1.0% 18%  
404 2% 17%  
405 2% 16%  
406 2% 14%  
407 0.6% 12%  
408 1.5% 11%  
409 2% 10%  
410 0.8% 8%  
411 0.6% 7%  
412 1.5% 7%  
413 1.3% 5%  
414 2% 4%  
415 1.0% 2%  
416 0.3% 1.4%  
417 0.3% 1.0%  
418 0.2% 0.8%  
419 0.2% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9% Last Result
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9%  
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.5%  
360 0.2% 99.3%  
361 0.2% 99.2%  
362 0.6% 98.9%  
363 0.5% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.4% 98%  
366 0.4% 97%  
367 0.3% 97%  
368 0.6% 96%  
369 2% 96%  
370 1.4% 94%  
371 1.2% 93%  
372 2% 92%  
373 2% 90%  
374 3% 88%  
375 2% 86%  
376 3% 84%  
377 2% 81%  
378 0.8% 79%  
379 2% 79%  
380 4% 77%  
381 2% 73%  
382 2% 71%  
383 2% 69%  
384 2% 67%  
385 3% 65%  
386 2% 62%  
387 2% 60%  
388 2% 58%  
389 2% 56%  
390 3% 54%  
391 3% 51% Median
392 5% 48%  
393 5% 43%  
394 5% 38%  
395 3% 33%  
396 1.3% 30%  
397 3% 29%  
398 2% 26%  
399 2% 24%  
400 1.0% 22%  
401 2% 21%  
402 2% 19%  
403 1.5% 17%  
404 2% 15%  
405 0.9% 14%  
406 2% 13%  
407 0.5% 11%  
408 1.3% 11%  
409 2% 9%  
410 1.0% 8%  
411 1.0% 7%  
412 2% 6%  
413 1.3% 4%  
414 1.1% 3%  
415 0.4% 1.5%  
416 0.2% 1.1%  
417 0.2% 0.9%  
418 0.2% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0.1% 99.8%  
342 0.3% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.4%  
344 0.3% 99.3%  
345 0.3% 99.0%  
346 0.1% 98.7%  
347 0.5% 98.5%  
348 0.3% 98%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.3% 97%  
351 1.0% 97%  
352 0.5% 96%  
353 1.0% 96%  
354 2% 95%  
355 2% 93%  
356 1.3% 91%  
357 2% 90%  
358 2% 87%  
359 1.3% 86%  
360 2% 84%  
361 3% 82%  
362 1.4% 80%  
363 3% 78%  
364 1.4% 75%  
365 2% 74%  
366 2% 72%  
367 1.4% 69%  
368 2% 68%  
369 2% 66%  
370 4% 65%  
371 3% 61%  
372 4% 58%  
373 3% 55%  
374 2% 52% Median
375 4% 50%  
376 3% 46%  
377 4% 43%  
378 3% 39%  
379 4% 36%  
380 2% 32%  
381 4% 31%  
382 1.1% 27%  
383 2% 26%  
384 2% 24%  
385 2% 22%  
386 1.4% 20%  
387 1.2% 18%  
388 1.1% 17%  
389 2% 16%  
390 0.9% 14%  
391 2% 13%  
392 2% 12%  
393 2% 10%  
394 1.4% 9%  
395 2% 7%  
396 0.8% 6%  
397 0.8% 5%  
398 0.4% 4%  
399 0.3% 4%  
400 0.5% 3%  
401 0.6% 3%  
402 0.7% 2%  
403 0.7% 1.5%  
404 0.2% 0.8%  
405 0.1% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.5%  
311 0.1% 99.3%  
312 0.4% 99.2%  
313 0.3% 98.8%  
314 0.2% 98.5%  
315 0.3% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.4% 98%  
318 0.3% 97%  
319 0.7% 97%  
320 0.8% 96%  
321 1.2% 95% Last Result
322 2% 94%  
323 0.8% 92%  
324 1.2% 91%  
325 2% 90%  
326 2% 89% Majority
327 1.1% 87%  
328 2% 86%  
329 2% 84%  
330 3% 82%  
331 2% 79%  
332 4% 78%  
333 2% 74%  
334 1.0% 72%  
335 1.4% 71%  
336 2% 70%  
337 3% 68%  
338 1.5% 65%  
339 2% 64%  
340 2% 61%  
341 3% 59%  
342 2% 56%  
343 2% 53% Median
344 5% 51%  
345 3% 46%  
346 4% 43%  
347 2% 40%  
348 2% 37%  
349 3% 35%  
350 3% 32%  
351 2% 28%  
352 1.2% 26%  
353 1.3% 25%  
354 3% 24%  
355 1.4% 21%  
356 1.2% 20%  
357 1.1% 18%  
358 2% 17%  
359 2% 16%  
360 0.8% 14%  
361 2% 13%  
362 1.5% 11%  
363 1.4% 10%  
364 1.2% 8%  
365 1.2% 7%  
366 0.9% 6%  
367 0.5% 5%  
368 0.3% 4%  
369 0.5% 4%  
370 0.7% 4%  
371 0.7% 3%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.6% 2%  
374 0.3% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.4% 97% Last Result
318 0.6% 97%  
319 1.2% 96%  
320 0.5% 95%  
321 2% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.9% 91%  
324 1.1% 90%  
325 2% 89%  
326 2% 87% Majority
327 1.3% 85%  
328 1.1% 84%  
329 3% 83%  
330 3% 80%  
331 2% 77%  
332 3% 75%  
333 2% 73%  
334 1.3% 71%  
335 2% 70%  
336 2% 68%  
337 3% 66%  
338 2% 63%  
339 2% 61%  
340 2% 59%  
341 3% 57%  
342 2% 54%  
343 3% 51% Median
344 5% 49%  
345 3% 43%  
346 3% 41%  
347 3% 38%  
348 1.5% 35%  
349 3% 33%  
350 3% 30%  
351 3% 27%  
352 2% 24%  
353 1.1% 23%  
354 3% 22%  
355 1.0% 19%  
356 1.0% 18%  
357 0.6% 17%  
358 2% 17%  
359 2% 15%  
360 0.8% 13%  
361 2% 12%  
362 2% 10%  
363 1.4% 8%  
364 0.9% 7%  
365 1.0% 6%  
366 0.7% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.5% 4%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.4% 97% Last Result
318 0.6% 97%  
319 1.2% 96%  
320 0.5% 95%  
321 2% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.9% 91%  
324 1.1% 90%  
325 2% 89%  
326 2% 87% Majority
327 1.3% 85%  
328 1.1% 84%  
329 3% 83%  
330 3% 80%  
331 2% 77%  
332 3% 75%  
333 2% 73%  
334 1.3% 71%  
335 2% 70%  
336 2% 68%  
337 3% 66%  
338 2% 63%  
339 2% 61%  
340 2% 59%  
341 3% 57%  
342 2% 54%  
343 3% 51% Median
344 5% 49%  
345 3% 43%  
346 3% 41%  
347 3% 38%  
348 1.5% 35%  
349 3% 33%  
350 3% 30%  
351 3% 27%  
352 2% 24%  
353 1.1% 23%  
354 3% 22%  
355 1.0% 19%  
356 1.0% 18%  
357 0.6% 17%  
358 2% 17%  
359 2% 15%  
360 0.8% 13%  
361 2% 12%  
362 2% 10%  
363 1.4% 8%  
364 0.9% 7%  
365 1.0% 6%  
366 0.7% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.5% 4%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.6% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.2% 99.4%  
259 0.4% 99.2%  
260 0.6% 98.9%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.7% 98%  
263 0.5% 97%  
264 0.5% 97%  
265 0.5% 96%  
266 0.7% 96%  
267 1.0% 95%  
268 0.9% 94%  
269 1.4% 93%  
270 2% 92%  
271 2% 90%  
272 0.8% 88%  
273 2% 87%  
274 2% 85%  
275 0.6% 83%  
276 1.0% 83%  
277 1.0% 82%  
278 3% 81%  
279 1.1% 78%  
280 2% 77%  
281 3% 76%  
282 3% 73%  
283 3% 70%  
284 1.5% 67%  
285 3% 65%  
286 3% 62%  
287 3% 59%  
288 5% 57% Median
289 3% 51%  
290 2% 49%  
291 3% 46%  
292 2% 43%  
293 2% 41%  
294 2% 39%  
295 3% 37%  
296 2% 34%  
297 2% 32%  
298 1.3% 30%  
299 2% 29%  
300 3% 27%  
301 2% 25%  
302 3% 23%  
303 3% 20%  
304 1.1% 17%  
305 1.3% 16%  
306 2% 15%  
307 2% 13%  
308 1.1% 11%  
309 0.9% 10%  
310 2% 9%  
311 2% 7%  
312 0.5% 5%  
313 1.2% 5%  
314 0.6% 4% Last Result
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.4%  
258 0.4% 99.2%  
259 0.6% 98.9%  
260 0.6% 98%  
261 0.7% 98%  
262 0.5% 97%  
263 0.5% 97%  
264 0.5% 96%  
265 0.7% 96%  
266 1.0% 95%  
267 0.9% 94%  
268 1.4% 93%  
269 2% 92%  
270 2% 90%  
271 0.8% 88%  
272 2% 87%  
273 2% 85%  
274 0.6% 83%  
275 1.0% 83%  
276 1.0% 82%  
277 3% 81%  
278 1.1% 78%  
279 2% 77%  
280 3% 76%  
281 3% 73%  
282 3% 70%  
283 1.5% 67%  
284 3% 65%  
285 3% 62%  
286 3% 59%  
287 5% 57% Median
288 3% 51%  
289 2% 49%  
290 3% 46%  
291 2% 43%  
292 2% 41%  
293 2% 39%  
294 3% 37%  
295 2% 34%  
296 2% 32%  
297 1.3% 30%  
298 2% 29%  
299 3% 27%  
300 2% 25%  
301 3% 23%  
302 3% 20%  
303 1.1% 17%  
304 1.3% 16%  
305 2% 15%  
306 2% 13%  
307 1.1% 11%  
308 0.9% 10%  
309 2% 9%  
310 2% 7%  
311 0.5% 5%  
312 1.2% 5%  
313 0.6% 4% Last Result
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.1%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.5%  
257 0.3% 99.3%  
258 0.6% 99.0%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.7% 97%  
262 0.5% 96%  
263 0.3% 96%  
264 0.5% 96%  
265 0.9% 95%  
266 1.2% 94%  
267 1.2% 93%  
268 1.4% 92%  
269 1.5% 90%  
270 2% 89%  
271 0.8% 87%  
272 2% 86%  
273 2% 84%  
274 1.1% 83%  
275 1.2% 82%  
276 1.4% 80%  
277 3% 79%  
278 1.3% 76%  
279 1.2% 75%  
280 2% 74%  
281 3% 72%  
282 3% 68%  
283 2% 65%  
284 2% 63%  
285 4% 60%  
286 3% 57%  
287 5% 54% Median
288 2% 49%  
289 2% 47%  
290 3% 44%  
291 2% 41%  
292 2% 39%  
293 1.5% 36%  
294 3% 35%  
295 2% 32%  
296 1.4% 30%  
297 1.0% 29%  
298 2% 28%  
299 4% 26%  
300 2% 22%  
301 3% 21%  
302 2% 18%  
303 2% 16%  
304 1.1% 14%  
305 2% 13%  
306 2% 11%  
307 1.2% 10%  
308 0.8% 9%  
309 2% 8% Last Result
310 1.2% 6%  
311 0.8% 5%  
312 0.7% 4%  
313 0.3% 3%  
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.4% 2%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.2% 2%  
318 0.3% 1.5%  
319 0.4% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.7%  
322 0.2% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.1% 99.5%  
227 0.2% 99.4%  
228 0.7% 99.2%  
229 0.7% 98.5%  
230 0.6% 98%  
231 0.5% 97%  
232 0.3% 97%  
233 0.4% 96%  
234 0.8% 96%  
235 0.8% 95%  
236 2% 94%  
237 1.4% 93%  
238 2% 91%  
239 2% 90%  
240 2% 88%  
241 0.9% 87%  
242 2% 86%  
243 1.1% 84%  
244 1.2% 83%  
245 1.4% 82%  
246 2% 80%  
247 2% 78%  
248 2% 76%  
249 1.1% 74%  
250 4% 73%  
251 2% 69%  
252 4% 68%  
253 3% 64%  
254 4% 61%  
255 3% 57%  
256 4% 54% Median
257 2% 50%  
258 3% 48%  
259 4% 45%  
260 3% 42%  
261 4% 39%  
262 2% 35%  
263 2% 34%  
264 1.4% 32%  
265 2% 31%  
266 2% 28%  
267 1.4% 26%  
268 3% 25%  
269 1.4% 22%  
270 3% 20%  
271 2% 18%  
272 1.3% 16%  
273 2% 14%  
274 2% 13%  
275 1.3% 10%  
276 2% 9%  
277 2% 7%  
278 1.0% 5%  
279 0.5% 4%  
280 1.0% 4%  
281 0.3% 3%  
282 0.3% 3%  
283 0.3% 2%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.1% 1.5%  
286 0.3% 1.3%  
287 0.3% 1.0%  
288 0.2% 0.7%  
289 0.3% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.7%  
225 0.1% 99.6%  
226 0.1% 99.4%  
227 0.5% 99.3%  
228 0.9% 98.8%  
229 0.6% 98%  
230 0.7% 97%  
231 0.4% 97%  
232 0.5% 96%  
233 0.4% 96%  
234 1.0% 95%  
235 0.8% 94%  
236 2% 94%  
237 1.3% 91%  
238 1.0% 90%  
239 2% 89%  
240 2% 87%  
241 1.0% 86%  
242 2% 85%  
243 2% 83%  
244 1.0% 81%  
245 2% 80%  
246 2% 78%  
247 2% 76%  
248 2% 74%  
249 1.4% 72%  
250 4% 71%  
251 2% 67%  
252 4% 65%  
253 2% 61%  
254 4% 59%  
255 4% 55%  
256 4% 52% Median
257 2% 48%  
258 2% 45%  
259 5% 43%  
260 2% 38%  
261 3% 36%  
262 0.7% 33%  
263 2% 32%  
264 2% 30%  
265 2% 29%  
266 2% 27%  
267 2% 25%  
268 3% 23%  
269 2% 20%  
270 2% 18%  
271 3% 16%  
272 1.2% 14%  
273 0.7% 12%  
274 3% 12%  
275 2% 9%  
276 1.0% 7%  
277 1.5% 6%  
278 0.9% 4%  
279 0.2% 4%  
280 0.7% 3%  
281 0.3% 3%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.4% 2%  
284 0.3% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.3%  
286 0.3% 1.0%  
287 0.2% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.2% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.2% 99.6%  
214 0.2% 99.3%  
215 0.2% 99.1%  
216 0.4% 98.9%  
217 1.1% 98.5%  
218 1.3% 97%  
219 2% 96%  
220 1.0% 94%  
221 1.0% 93%  
222 2% 92%  
223 1.3% 91%  
224 0.5% 89%  
225 2% 89%  
226 0.9% 87%  
227 2% 86%  
228 1.5% 85%  
229 2% 83%  
230 2% 81%  
231 1.0% 79%  
232 2% 78%  
233 2% 76%  
234 3% 74%  
235 1.3% 71%  
236 3% 70%  
237 5% 67%  
238 5% 62%  
239 5% 57% Median
240 3% 52%  
241 3% 49%  
242 2% 46%  
243 2% 44%  
244 2% 42%  
245 2% 40%  
246 3% 38%  
247 2% 35%  
248 2% 33%  
249 2% 31%  
250 2% 29%  
251 4% 27%  
252 2% 23%  
253 0.8% 21%  
254 2% 21%  
255 3% 19%  
256 2% 16%  
257 3% 14%  
258 2% 12%  
259 2% 10%  
260 1.2% 8%  
261 1.4% 7%  
262 2% 6%  
263 0.6% 4%  
264 0.3% 4%  
265 0.4% 3%  
266 0.4% 3%  
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.2% 1.1%  
271 0.2% 0.8%  
272 0.2% 0.7%  
273 0.2% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1% Last Result
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.2% 99.6%  
213 0.2% 99.5%  
214 0.3% 99.2%  
215 0.3% 99.0%  
216 1.0% 98.6%  
217 2% 98%  
218 1.3% 96%  
219 1.5% 95%  
220 0.6% 93%  
221 0.8% 93%  
222 2% 92%  
223 1.5% 90%  
224 0.6% 89%  
225 2% 88%  
226 2% 86%  
227 2% 84%  
228 1.0% 83%  
229 2% 82%  
230 2% 79%  
231 2% 77%  
232 1.5% 76%  
233 2% 74%  
234 2% 73%  
235 2% 70%  
236 3% 68%  
237 5% 65%  
238 5% 60%  
239 6% 54% Median
240 3% 49%  
241 2% 46%  
242 2% 43%  
243 2% 41%  
244 2% 40%  
245 3% 38%  
246 2% 36%  
247 2% 33%  
248 2% 32%  
249 3% 30%  
250 2% 27%  
251 4% 25%  
252 0.8% 21%  
253 1.1% 21%  
254 3% 20%  
255 3% 17%  
256 2% 14%  
257 2% 12%  
258 2% 10%  
259 0.8% 8%  
260 1.4% 7%  
261 1.2% 6%  
262 1.2% 5%  
263 0.4% 4%  
264 0.4% 3%  
265 0.5% 3%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.4% 1.2%  
270 0.1% 0.8%  
271 0.2% 0.7%  
272 0.1% 0.5%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.5% 99.6%  
184 0% 99.1%  
185 0.1% 99.1%  
186 0.8% 99.0%  
187 2% 98%  
188 2% 97%  
189 0.9% 94%  
190 0.9% 93%  
191 2% 93%  
192 0.7% 91%  
193 2% 90%  
194 0.5% 88%  
195 3% 88%  
196 0.6% 85%  
197 2% 84%  
198 0.5% 82%  
199 3% 82%  
200 0.3% 78%  
201 2% 78%  
202 0.6% 76%  
203 3% 75%  
204 5% 73%  
205 2% 68%  
206 4% 66%  
207 7% 62%  
208 4% 55% Median
209 5% 51%  
210 3% 46%  
211 3% 43%  
212 0.9% 40%  
213 2% 39%  
214 2% 38%  
215 3% 36%  
216 1.0% 33%  
217 2% 32%  
218 5% 30%  
219 3% 26%  
220 3% 22%  
221 0.7% 20%  
222 0.3% 19%  
223 0.9% 19%  
224 4% 18%  
225 3% 14%  
226 3% 11%  
227 1.5% 8%  
228 0.8% 6%  
229 0.5% 5%  
230 2% 5%  
231 0.3% 3%  
232 0.4% 3%  
233 0.7% 3%  
234 0.1% 2%  
235 0% 2%  
236 0.5% 2%  
237 0.7% 1.3%  
238 0.3% 0.6%  
239 0.2% 0.4%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.8%  
181 0.2% 99.7%  
182 0.1% 99.6%  
183 0.4% 99.5%  
184 0% 99.0%  
185 0.3% 99.0%  
186 2% 98.7%  
187 2% 97%  
188 2% 95%  
189 0.4% 93%  
190 0.3% 93%  
191 2% 92%  
192 1.0% 90%  
193 2% 89%  
194 0.7% 88%  
195 4% 87%  
196 0.5% 83%  
197 1.0% 82%  
198 1.3% 81%  
199 3% 80%  
200 1.4% 77%  
201 1.4% 75%  
202 0.9% 74%  
203 1.4% 73%  
204 5% 72%  
205 3% 67%  
206 4% 64%  
207 8% 59%  
208 4% 51% Median
209 6% 47%  
210 2% 42%  
211 0.6% 40%  
212 0.9% 39%  
213 3% 38%  
214 2% 36%  
215 1.4% 33%  
216 0.9% 32%  
217 3% 31%  
218 5% 28%  
219 3% 23%  
220 0.8% 20%  
221 0.4% 19%  
222 0.6% 19%  
223 3% 18%  
224 6% 15%  
225 2% 9%  
226 1.2% 7%  
227 1.3% 6%  
228 0.4% 5%  
229 0.3% 5%  
230 1.4% 4%  
231 0.3% 3%  
232 0.5% 3%  
233 0.1% 2%  
234 0.1% 2%  
235 0.4% 2%  
236 0.7% 1.4%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.2% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations