Opinion Poll by ComRes for Daily Telegraph, 9–10 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 43.4% | 41.0% | 39.6–42.4% | 39.2–42.8% | 38.9–43.1% | 38.2–43.8% |
| Labour Party | 41.0% | 36.0% | 34.6–37.4% | 34.2–37.8% | 33.9–38.1% | 33.3–38.8% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.6% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.3% |
| Brexit Party | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% |
| Green Party | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 317 | 314 | 299–327 | 292–331 | 286–335 | 274–344 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 236 | 223–249 | 222–256 | 217–262 | 208–273 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–33 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 50 | 45–51 | 41–53 | 40–54 | 38–54 |
| Brexit Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green Party | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 285 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 289 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 290 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 292 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 296 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 298 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 300 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 301 | 2% | 88% | |
| 302 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 304 | 2% | 84% | |
| 305 | 2% | 82% | |
| 306 | 2% | 81% | |
| 307 | 2% | 79% | |
| 308 | 3% | 77% | |
| 309 | 3% | 75% | |
| 310 | 4% | 71% | |
| 311 | 5% | 68% | |
| 312 | 5% | 63% | |
| 313 | 6% | 57% | |
| 314 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 315 | 3% | 47% | |
| 316 | 4% | 44% | |
| 317 | 4% | 40% | Last Result |
| 318 | 3% | 36% | |
| 319 | 3% | 33% | |
| 320 | 4% | 30% | |
| 321 | 2% | 26% | |
| 322 | 3% | 25% | |
| 323 | 3% | 22% | |
| 324 | 2% | 18% | |
| 325 | 3% | 16% | |
| 326 | 1.3% | 13% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 12% | |
| 328 | 2% | 10% | |
| 329 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 330 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 331 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 333 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 334 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 335 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 222 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 223 | 5% | 94% | |
| 224 | 3% | 89% | |
| 225 | 3% | 86% | |
| 226 | 2% | 84% | |
| 227 | 2% | 81% | |
| 228 | 5% | 79% | |
| 229 | 2% | 74% | |
| 230 | 5% | 72% | |
| 231 | 2% | 67% | |
| 232 | 0.9% | 66% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 234 | 9% | 64% | |
| 235 | 5% | 56% | |
| 236 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 237 | 8% | 45% | |
| 238 | 7% | 37% | |
| 239 | 2% | 29% | |
| 240 | 3% | 27% | |
| 241 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 242 | 2% | 23% | |
| 243 | 2% | 21% | |
| 244 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 245 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 246 | 2% | 17% | |
| 247 | 2% | 15% | |
| 248 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 249 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 250 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 251 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 255 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 256 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 260 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 261 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 268 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 269 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 4% | 97% | |
| 28 | 14% | 93% | |
| 29 | 12% | 79% | |
| 30 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 31 | 22% | 49% | |
| 32 | 15% | 27% | |
| 33 | 8% | 12% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 41 | 3% | 97% | |
| 42 | 3% | 94% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 45 | 8% | 91% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 47 | 11% | 83% | |
| 48 | 14% | 72% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 59% | |
| 50 | 31% | 58% | Median |
| 51 | 19% | 27% | |
| 52 | 2% | 8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 3% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Brexit Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 363 | 99.4% | 349–375 | 342–377 | 336–381 | 324–390 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 344 | 93% | 330–357 | 322–361 | 317–365 | 306–374 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 315 | 16% | 301–330 | 297–337 | 293–343 | 284–355 |
| Conservative Party – Brexit Party | 317 | 314 | 13% | 299–327 | 292–331 | 286–335 | 274–344 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 314 | 13% | 299–327 | 292–331 | 286–335 | 274–344 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 284 | 0.4% | 271–299 | 267–307 | 263–312 | 254–323 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 266 | 0% | 253–280 | 251–287 | 247–293 | 238–305 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 236 | 0% | 223–249 | 222–256 | 217–262 | 208–273 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 312 | 0% | 100% | |
| 313 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 314 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 315 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 316 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 317 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 318 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 319 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 320 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 321 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 322 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 324 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 332 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 333 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 334 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 336 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 338 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 339 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 340 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 341 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 342 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 343 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 344 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 345 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 346 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 347 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 348 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 349 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 350 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 351 | 1.5% | 88% | |
| 352 | 2% | 86% | Last Result |
| 353 | 2% | 84% | |
| 354 | 2% | 83% | |
| 355 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 356 | 2% | 80% | |
| 357 | 2% | 78% | |
| 358 | 2% | 76% | |
| 359 | 4% | 74% | |
| 360 | 4% | 70% | |
| 361 | 8% | 66% | |
| 362 | 8% | 59% | |
| 363 | 8% | 51% | |
| 364 | 6% | 43% | Median |
| 365 | 2% | 37% | |
| 366 | 2% | 36% | |
| 367 | 3% | 34% | |
| 368 | 3% | 31% | |
| 369 | 3% | 27% | |
| 370 | 4% | 25% | |
| 371 | 2% | 21% | |
| 372 | 2% | 19% | |
| 373 | 3% | 16% | |
| 374 | 3% | 13% | |
| 375 | 4% | 10% | |
| 376 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 377 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 378 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 380 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 381 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 382 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 383 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 385 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 386 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 387 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 390 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 392 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 293 | 0% | 100% | |
| 294 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 295 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 316 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 318 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 319 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 320 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 321 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 322 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 323 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 324 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 325 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 326 | 0.4% | 93% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 328 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 329 | 0.6% | 91% | Last Result |
| 330 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 331 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 332 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 333 | 2% | 86% | |
| 334 | 2% | 85% | |
| 335 | 2% | 83% | |
| 336 | 1.1% | 81% | |
| 337 | 2% | 80% | |
| 338 | 2% | 79% | |
| 339 | 3% | 76% | |
| 340 | 3% | 74% | |
| 341 | 6% | 70% | |
| 342 | 5% | 64% | |
| 343 | 6% | 59% | |
| 344 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 345 | 2% | 47% | |
| 346 | 4% | 45% | |
| 347 | 4% | 41% | |
| 348 | 2% | 37% | |
| 349 | 3% | 34% | |
| 350 | 4% | 32% | |
| 351 | 3% | 27% | |
| 352 | 3% | 25% | |
| 353 | 3% | 22% | |
| 354 | 2% | 19% | |
| 355 | 3% | 16% | |
| 356 | 2% | 13% | |
| 357 | 2% | 11% | |
| 358 | 2% | 10% | |
| 359 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 360 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 361 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 362 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 363 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 364 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 365 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 366 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 367 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 368 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 369 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 370 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 371 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 373 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 377 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 382 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 383 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 275 | 0% | 100% | |
| 276 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 287 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 292 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 295 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 296 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 297 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 298 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 299 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 300 | 2% | 92% | |
| 301 | 2% | 90% | |
| 302 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 303 | 3% | 87% | |
| 304 | 2% | 84% | |
| 305 | 3% | 82% | |
| 306 | 3% | 79% | |
| 307 | 2% | 76% | |
| 308 | 4% | 74% | |
| 309 | 3% | 70% | Last Result |
| 310 | 3% | 67% | |
| 311 | 3% | 65% | |
| 312 | 4% | 62% | |
| 313 | 3% | 58% | |
| 314 | 3% | 55% | |
| 315 | 5% | 51% | |
| 316 | 7% | 46% | Median |
| 317 | 4% | 39% | |
| 318 | 4% | 35% | |
| 319 | 4% | 31% | |
| 320 | 3% | 27% | |
| 321 | 2% | 24% | |
| 322 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 323 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 324 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 325 | 2% | 18% | |
| 326 | 1.3% | 16% | Majority |
| 327 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 328 | 2% | 13% | |
| 329 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 330 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 331 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 332 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 333 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 334 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 335 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 336 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 337 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 338 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 340 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 341 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 342 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 343 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 344 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 345 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 346 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 347 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 350 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 357 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Brexit Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 285 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 289 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 290 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 292 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 296 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 298 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 300 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 301 | 2% | 88% | |
| 302 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 304 | 2% | 84% | |
| 305 | 2% | 82% | |
| 306 | 2% | 81% | |
| 307 | 2% | 79% | |
| 308 | 3% | 77% | |
| 309 | 3% | 75% | |
| 310 | 4% | 71% | |
| 311 | 5% | 68% | |
| 312 | 5% | 63% | |
| 313 | 6% | 57% | |
| 314 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 315 | 3% | 47% | |
| 316 | 4% | 44% | |
| 317 | 4% | 40% | Last Result |
| 318 | 3% | 36% | |
| 319 | 3% | 33% | |
| 320 | 4% | 30% | |
| 321 | 2% | 26% | |
| 322 | 3% | 25% | |
| 323 | 3% | 22% | |
| 324 | 2% | 18% | |
| 325 | 3% | 16% | |
| 326 | 1.3% | 13% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 12% | |
| 328 | 2% | 10% | |
| 329 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 330 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 331 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 333 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 334 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 335 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 267 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 283 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 285 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 287 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 289 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 290 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 292 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 296 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 298 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 300 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 301 | 2% | 88% | |
| 302 | 1.4% | 87% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 304 | 2% | 84% | |
| 305 | 2% | 82% | |
| 306 | 2% | 81% | |
| 307 | 2% | 79% | |
| 308 | 3% | 77% | |
| 309 | 3% | 75% | |
| 310 | 4% | 71% | |
| 311 | 5% | 68% | |
| 312 | 5% | 63% | |
| 313 | 6% | 57% | |
| 314 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 315 | 3% | 47% | |
| 316 | 4% | 44% | |
| 317 | 4% | 40% | Last Result |
| 318 | 3% | 36% | |
| 319 | 3% | 33% | |
| 320 | 4% | 30% | |
| 321 | 2% | 26% | |
| 322 | 3% | 25% | |
| 323 | 3% | 22% | |
| 324 | 2% | 18% | |
| 325 | 3% | 16% | |
| 326 | 1.3% | 13% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 12% | |
| 328 | 2% | 10% | |
| 329 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 330 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 331 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 333 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 334 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 335 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 341 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 261 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 263 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 264 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 265 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 266 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 267 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 268 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 269 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 270 | 2% | 92% | |
| 271 | 2% | 90% | |
| 272 | 2% | 89% | |
| 273 | 3% | 87% | |
| 274 | 2% | 84% | |
| 275 | 3% | 82% | |
| 276 | 3% | 78% | |
| 277 | 2% | 76% | |
| 278 | 5% | 74% | |
| 279 | 3% | 69% | |
| 280 | 2% | 66% | |
| 281 | 3% | 64% | |
| 282 | 3% | 60% | |
| 283 | 3% | 57% | |
| 284 | 5% | 55% | |
| 285 | 5% | 49% | |
| 286 | 5% | 44% | Median |
| 287 | 5% | 39% | |
| 288 | 5% | 34% | |
| 289 | 3% | 29% | |
| 290 | 3% | 26% | |
| 291 | 2% | 23% | |
| 292 | 2% | 21% | |
| 293 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 294 | 2% | 19% | |
| 295 | 2% | 17% | |
| 296 | 2% | 15% | |
| 297 | 1.4% | 14% | Last Result |
| 298 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 299 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 302 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 303 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 304 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 305 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 306 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 308 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 310 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 311 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 314 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 315 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 317 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 318 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 238 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 249 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 250 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 252 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 253 | 4% | 93% | |
| 254 | 3% | 90% | |
| 255 | 3% | 87% | |
| 256 | 3% | 84% | |
| 257 | 2% | 81% | |
| 258 | 4% | 79% | |
| 259 | 2% | 75% | |
| 260 | 3% | 73% | |
| 261 | 3% | 70% | |
| 262 | 1.5% | 66% | |
| 263 | 2% | 65% | |
| 264 | 3% | 63% | |
| 265 | 8% | 60% | |
| 266 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 267 | 5% | 44% | |
| 268 | 7% | 39% | |
| 269 | 4% | 32% | |
| 270 | 4% | 29% | |
| 271 | 1.5% | 25% | |
| 272 | 2% | 23% | |
| 273 | 2% | 22% | |
| 274 | 1.2% | 20% | Last Result |
| 275 | 2% | 19% | |
| 276 | 2% | 17% | |
| 277 | 2% | 16% | |
| 278 | 1.5% | 14% | |
| 279 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 280 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 281 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 282 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 283 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 284 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 286 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 287 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 290 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 292 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 293 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 296 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 301 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 222 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 223 | 5% | 94% | |
| 224 | 3% | 89% | |
| 225 | 3% | 86% | |
| 226 | 2% | 84% | |
| 227 | 2% | 81% | |
| 228 | 5% | 79% | |
| 229 | 2% | 74% | |
| 230 | 5% | 72% | |
| 231 | 2% | 67% | |
| 232 | 0.9% | 66% | |
| 233 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 234 | 9% | 64% | |
| 235 | 5% | 56% | |
| 236 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 237 | 8% | 45% | |
| 238 | 7% | 37% | |
| 239 | 2% | 29% | |
| 240 | 3% | 27% | |
| 241 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 242 | 2% | 23% | |
| 243 | 2% | 21% | |
| 244 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 245 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 246 | 2% | 17% | |
| 247 | 2% | 15% | |
| 248 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 249 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 250 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 251 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 255 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 256 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 260 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 261 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 268 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 269 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 273 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 286 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ComRes
- Commissioner(s): Daily Telegraph
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2051
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.79%