Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 9–11 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 43.9% 42.7–45.1% 42.4–45.5% 42.1–45.8% 41.5–46.3%
Labour Party 41.0% 31.9% 30.8–33.1% 30.5–33.4% 30.2–33.7% 29.7–34.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 13.0% 12.2–13.8% 12.0–14.1% 11.8–14.3% 11.4–14.7%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.4% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 355 342–368 337–372 333–373 326–378
Labour Party 262 196 187–209 186–213 183–218 180–224
Liberal Democrats 12 31 30–33 30–33 30–34 28–36
Scottish National Party 35 47 41–50 41–51 41–51 38–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.3%  
328 0.1% 99.2%  
329 0.1% 99.1%  
330 0.3% 99.0%  
331 0.5% 98.7%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.8% 98%  
334 0.7% 97%  
335 0.6% 96%  
336 0.3% 96%  
337 0.6% 95%  
338 0.8% 95%  
339 0.5% 94%  
340 1.2% 94%  
341 2% 92%  
342 2% 91%  
343 3% 89%  
344 4% 85%  
345 3% 81%  
346 2% 78%  
347 2% 77%  
348 2% 74%  
349 2% 73%  
350 2% 71%  
351 4% 69%  
352 3% 65%  
353 7% 62%  
354 3% 55%  
355 3% 53% Median
356 4% 50%  
357 3% 45%  
358 1.0% 43%  
359 1.1% 42%  
360 2% 41%  
361 3% 39%  
362 6% 36%  
363 3% 30%  
364 4% 27%  
365 6% 23%  
366 3% 17%  
367 3% 14%  
368 1.5% 11%  
369 2% 10%  
370 0.7% 8%  
371 1.2% 7%  
372 2% 6%  
373 2% 4%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.6% 1.2%  
378 0.2% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.7%  
180 0.3% 99.6%  
181 0.7% 99.3%  
182 0.3% 98.6%  
183 2% 98%  
184 0.1% 96%  
185 0.7% 96%  
186 5% 95%  
187 7% 91%  
188 9% 83%  
189 0.5% 74%  
190 0.6% 73%  
191 3% 73%  
192 3% 70%  
193 7% 67%  
194 1.4% 61%  
195 7% 59%  
196 3% 52% Median
197 3% 49%  
198 1.2% 45%  
199 4% 44%  
200 2% 40%  
201 3% 38%  
202 4% 35%  
203 1.0% 32%  
204 4% 31%  
205 4% 27%  
206 4% 22%  
207 5% 19%  
208 2% 13%  
209 4% 11%  
210 0.7% 7%  
211 0.2% 6%  
212 0.2% 6%  
213 0.9% 6%  
214 0.9% 5%  
215 0.7% 4%  
216 0.1% 3%  
217 0.4% 3%  
218 1.1% 3%  
219 0.5% 2%  
220 0.2% 1.0%  
221 0% 0.8%  
222 0% 0.8%  
223 0.3% 0.8%  
224 0.3% 0.5%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.3%  
30 33% 98%  
31 34% 64% Median
32 20% 30%  
33 8% 10%  
34 0.3% 3%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.7% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.2% 99.6%  
39 0.2% 99.4%  
40 0.1% 99.2%  
41 12% 99.0%  
42 9% 87%  
43 0.9% 78%  
44 0% 77%  
45 11% 77%  
46 2% 67%  
47 16% 65% Median
48 20% 49%  
49 0.9% 29%  
50 22% 28%  
51 6% 6%  
52 0.2% 0.6%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Median
1 3% 26%  
2 11% 23%  
3 12% 12%  
4 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 403 100% 391–414 387–415 382–418 376–421
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 403 100% 390–414 386–415 381–418 374–420
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 386 100% 373–399 370–402 364–404 358–408
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 356 99.6% 343–369 338–372 334–374 326–378
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 355 99.5% 342–368 337–372 333–373 326–378
Conservative Party 317 355 99.5% 342–368 337–372 333–373 326–378
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 277 0% 264–290 260–295 259–299 254–306
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 276 0% 263–289 259–294 258–298 253–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 275 0% 262–288 259–293 257–297 253–305
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 245 0% 232–258 229–261 227–267 223–273
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 244 0% 232–257 228–261 227–265 222–272
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 228 0% 217–241 216–245 213–250 211–257
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 228 0% 217–240 216–244 213–249 210–255
Labour Party 262 196 0% 187–209 186–213 183–218 180–224
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 197 0% 187–209 186–213 183–218 180–224

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.2% 99.7%  
376 0.3% 99.5%  
377 0.1% 99.2%  
378 0.1% 99.1%  
379 0.1% 99.0%  
380 0.8% 98.9%  
381 0.4% 98%  
382 0.5% 98%  
383 0.5% 97%  
384 0.6% 97%  
385 0.9% 96%  
386 0.2% 95%  
387 0.7% 95%  
388 0.6% 94%  
389 0.8% 94%  
390 3% 93%  
391 3% 90%  
392 3% 87%  
393 4% 85%  
394 5% 81%  
395 4% 76%  
396 2% 72%  
397 3% 70%  
398 1.0% 67%  
399 5% 66%  
400 3% 61%  
401 2% 58%  
402 2% 56% Median
403 5% 54%  
404 4% 50%  
405 3% 46%  
406 3% 43%  
407 3% 39%  
408 6% 36%  
409 2% 30%  
410 2% 28%  
411 2% 26%  
412 5% 24%  
413 6% 19%  
414 5% 13%  
415 3% 8%  
416 0.9% 5%  
417 0.5% 4%  
418 1.4% 3%  
419 0.7% 2%  
420 0.3% 1.0%  
421 0.2% 0.7%  
422 0.2% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.1% 99.2%  
378 0.2% 99.0%  
379 0.3% 98.9%  
380 0.9% 98.6%  
381 0.4% 98%  
382 0.4% 97%  
383 0.8% 97%  
384 0.5% 96%  
385 0.5% 96%  
386 0.3% 95%  
387 0.7% 95%  
388 0.9% 94%  
389 1.3% 93%  
390 3% 92%  
391 4% 89%  
392 4% 85%  
393 3% 81%  
394 3% 78%  
395 3% 74%  
396 3% 71%  
397 3% 68%  
398 1.2% 65%  
399 5% 64%  
400 3% 59%  
401 3% 56%  
402 1.2% 53% Median
403 4% 52%  
404 5% 48%  
405 2% 43%  
406 3% 41%  
407 3% 38%  
408 7% 35%  
409 2% 28%  
410 2% 26%  
411 4% 24%  
412 5% 20%  
413 5% 16%  
414 4% 10%  
415 3% 6%  
416 0.8% 4%  
417 0.4% 3%  
418 1.2% 3%  
419 0.6% 1.4%  
420 0.3% 0.8%  
421 0.2% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0.1% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9%  
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.2% 99.7%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.1% 99.4%  
360 0.1% 99.3%  
361 0.2% 99.2%  
362 0.2% 99.0%  
363 0.5% 98.8%  
364 0.9% 98%  
365 0.4% 97%  
366 0.7% 97%  
367 0.6% 96%  
368 0.5% 96%  
369 0.3% 95%  
370 0.8% 95%  
371 0.8% 94%  
372 2% 93%  
373 2% 92%  
374 2% 90%  
375 4% 88%  
376 4% 83%  
377 2% 80%  
378 2% 77%  
379 2% 75%  
380 2% 73%  
381 3% 71%  
382 2% 67%  
383 2% 65%  
384 6% 63%  
385 5% 57%  
386 3% 52% Median
387 2% 49%  
388 3% 47%  
389 2% 44%  
390 0.7% 42%  
391 3% 41%  
392 4% 38%  
393 4% 33%  
394 4% 30%  
395 3% 26%  
396 8% 23%  
397 2% 15%  
398 3% 13%  
399 2% 10%  
400 1.2% 9%  
401 0.8% 7%  
402 2% 7%  
403 2% 5%  
404 0.6% 3%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.6% 1.3%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.2% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0.1% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9% Last Result
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.2% 99.6% Majority
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0.1% 99.3%  
329 0.2% 99.2%  
330 0.2% 99.1%  
331 0.3% 98.9%  
332 0.4% 98.6%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.8% 98%  
335 1.0% 97%  
336 0.2% 96%  
337 0.5% 96%  
338 0.7% 95%  
339 0.3% 95%  
340 1.1% 94%  
341 2% 93%  
342 1.3% 92%  
343 3% 90%  
344 4% 87%  
345 3% 83%  
346 3% 81%  
347 2% 78%  
348 1.4% 75%  
349 1.2% 74%  
350 3% 73%  
351 4% 70%  
352 2% 66%  
353 5% 64%  
354 3% 59%  
355 4% 56% Median
356 5% 52%  
357 3% 47%  
358 1.4% 44%  
359 0.8% 42%  
360 2% 42%  
361 2% 40%  
362 5% 38%  
363 3% 33%  
364 4% 30%  
365 6% 25%  
366 3% 20%  
367 4% 16%  
368 2% 12%  
369 2% 11%  
370 0.8% 9%  
371 1.3% 8%  
372 2% 6%  
373 2% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.7% 1.4%  
378 0.3% 0.7%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.3%  
328 0.1% 99.2%  
329 0.1% 99.1%  
330 0.3% 99.0%  
331 0.5% 98.7%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.8% 98%  
334 0.7% 97%  
335 0.6% 96%  
336 0.3% 96%  
337 0.6% 95%  
338 0.8% 95%  
339 0.5% 94%  
340 1.2% 94%  
341 2% 92%  
342 2% 91%  
343 3% 89%  
344 4% 85%  
345 3% 81%  
346 2% 78%  
347 2% 77%  
348 2% 74%  
349 2% 73%  
350 2% 71%  
351 4% 69%  
352 3% 65%  
353 7% 62%  
354 3% 55%  
355 3% 53% Median
356 4% 50%  
357 3% 45%  
358 1.0% 43%  
359 1.1% 42%  
360 2% 41%  
361 3% 39%  
362 6% 36%  
363 3% 30%  
364 4% 27%  
365 6% 23%  
366 3% 17%  
367 3% 14%  
368 1.5% 11%  
369 2% 10%  
370 0.7% 8%  
371 1.2% 7%  
372 2% 6%  
373 2% 4%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.6% 1.2%  
378 0.2% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.3%  
328 0.1% 99.2%  
329 0.1% 99.1%  
330 0.3% 99.0%  
331 0.5% 98.7%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.8% 98%  
334 0.7% 97%  
335 0.6% 96%  
336 0.3% 96%  
337 0.6% 95%  
338 0.8% 95%  
339 0.5% 94%  
340 1.2% 94%  
341 2% 92%  
342 2% 91%  
343 3% 89%  
344 4% 85%  
345 3% 81%  
346 2% 78%  
347 2% 77%  
348 2% 74%  
349 2% 73%  
350 2% 71%  
351 4% 69%  
352 3% 65%  
353 7% 62%  
354 3% 55%  
355 3% 53% Median
356 4% 50%  
357 3% 45%  
358 1.0% 43%  
359 1.1% 42%  
360 2% 41%  
361 3% 39%  
362 6% 36%  
363 3% 30%  
364 4% 27%  
365 6% 23%  
366 3% 17%  
367 3% 14%  
368 1.5% 11%  
369 2% 10%  
370 0.7% 8%  
371 1.2% 7%  
372 2% 6%  
373 2% 4%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.6% 2%  
377 0.6% 1.2%  
378 0.2% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0.6% 99.4%  
256 0.6% 98.8%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 2% 98%  
260 2% 96%  
261 1.2% 94%  
262 0.7% 93%  
263 2% 92%  
264 1.5% 90%  
265 3% 89%  
266 3% 86%  
267 6% 83%  
268 4% 77%  
269 3% 73%  
270 6% 70%  
271 3% 64%  
272 2% 61%  
273 1.1% 59%  
274 1.0% 58%  
275 3% 57% Median
276 4% 55%  
277 3% 50%  
278 3% 47%  
279 7% 45%  
280 3% 38%  
281 4% 35%  
282 2% 31%  
283 2% 29%  
284 2% 27%  
285 2% 26%  
286 2% 23%  
287 3% 22%  
288 4% 19%  
289 3% 15%  
290 2% 11%  
291 2% 9%  
292 1.2% 8%  
293 0.5% 6%  
294 0.8% 6%  
295 0.6% 5%  
296 0.3% 5%  
297 0.6% 4%  
298 0.7% 4%  
299 0.8% 3%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.3% 1.3%  
303 0.1% 1.0%  
304 0.1% 0.9%  
305 0.1% 0.8%  
306 0.2% 0.7%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.6% 99.4%  
255 0.6% 98.8%  
256 0.3% 98%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 2% 98%  
259 2% 96%  
260 1.2% 94%  
261 0.7% 93%  
262 2% 92%  
263 1.5% 90%  
264 3% 89%  
265 3% 86%  
266 6% 83%  
267 4% 77%  
268 3% 73%  
269 6% 70%  
270 3% 64%  
271 2% 61%  
272 1.1% 59%  
273 1.0% 58%  
274 3% 57% Median
275 4% 55%  
276 3% 50%  
277 3% 47%  
278 7% 45%  
279 3% 38%  
280 4% 35%  
281 2% 31%  
282 2% 29%  
283 2% 27%  
284 2% 26%  
285 2% 23%  
286 3% 22%  
287 4% 19%  
288 3% 15%  
289 2% 11%  
290 2% 9%  
291 1.2% 8%  
292 0.5% 6%  
293 0.8% 6%  
294 0.6% 5%  
295 0.3% 5%  
296 0.6% 4%  
297 0.7% 4%  
298 0.8% 3%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.5% 2%  
301 0.3% 1.3%  
302 0.1% 1.0%  
303 0.1% 0.9%  
304 0.1% 0.8%  
305 0.2% 0.7%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.3% 99.6%  
254 0.7% 99.3%  
255 0.6% 98.6%  
256 0.3% 98%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 2% 97%  
259 2% 96%  
260 1.3% 94%  
261 0.8% 92%  
262 2% 91%  
263 2% 89%  
264 4% 88%  
265 3% 84%  
266 6% 80%  
267 4% 75%  
268 3% 70%  
269 5% 67%  
270 2% 62%  
271 2% 60%  
272 0.8% 58%  
273 1.4% 58%  
274 3% 56% Median
275 5% 53%  
276 4% 48%  
277 3% 44%  
278 5% 41%  
279 2% 36%  
280 4% 34%  
281 3% 30%  
282 1.2% 27%  
283 1.4% 26%  
284 2% 25%  
285 3% 22%  
286 3% 19%  
287 4% 17%  
288 3% 13%  
289 1.3% 10%  
290 2% 8%  
291 1.1% 7%  
292 0.3% 6%  
293 0.7% 5%  
294 0.5% 5%  
295 0.2% 4%  
296 1.0% 4%  
297 0.8% 3%  
298 0.5% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.3% 1.4%  
301 0.2% 1.1%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.1% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.7%  
305 0.2% 0.6%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1% Last Result
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.2% 99.7%  
223 0.2% 99.5%  
224 0.6% 99.3%  
225 0.4% 98.7%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 0.6% 98%  
228 2% 97%  
229 2% 95%  
230 0.8% 93%  
231 1.2% 93%  
232 2% 91%  
233 3% 90%  
234 2% 87%  
235 8% 85%  
236 3% 77%  
237 4% 74%  
238 4% 70%  
239 4% 67%  
240 3% 62%  
241 0.7% 59%  
242 2% 58%  
243 3% 56% Median
244 2% 53%  
245 3% 51%  
246 5% 48%  
247 6% 43%  
248 2% 37%  
249 2% 35%  
250 3% 33%  
251 2% 29%  
252 2% 27%  
253 2% 25%  
254 2% 23%  
255 4% 20%  
256 4% 17%  
257 2% 12%  
258 2% 10%  
259 2% 8%  
260 0.8% 7%  
261 0.8% 6%  
262 0.3% 5%  
263 0.5% 5%  
264 0.6% 4%  
265 0.7% 4%  
266 0.4% 3%  
267 0.9% 3%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.2% 1.2%  
270 0.2% 1.0%  
271 0.1% 0.8%  
272 0.1% 0.7%  
273 0.1% 0.6%  
274 0.2% 0.5%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0.2% 99.7%  
223 0.3% 99.4%  
224 0.6% 99.1%  
225 0.5% 98.5%  
226 0.3% 98%  
227 0.8% 98%  
228 2% 97%  
229 2% 95%  
230 0.6% 92%  
231 1.3% 92%  
232 2% 91%  
233 3% 88%  
234 3% 85%  
235 7% 82%  
236 3% 75%  
237 4% 72%  
238 3% 67%  
239 4% 64%  
240 2% 61%  
241 0.9% 58%  
242 2% 57%  
243 4% 55% Median
244 4% 51%  
245 3% 47%  
246 4% 45%  
247 6% 40%  
248 1.2% 34%  
249 2% 33%  
250 4% 31%  
251 2% 28%  
252 2% 26%  
253 2% 23%  
254 3% 21%  
255 4% 18%  
256 3% 14%  
257 3% 11%  
258 1.5% 9%  
259 1.3% 7%  
260 0.7% 6%  
261 0.4% 5%  
262 0.2% 5%  
263 0.5% 4%  
264 0.7% 4%  
265 1.1% 3%  
266 0.3% 2%  
267 0.4% 2%  
268 0.4% 1.4%  
269 0.1% 1.0%  
270 0.2% 0.9%  
271 0.1% 0.7%  
272 0.1% 0.6%  
273 0% 0.5%  
274 0.2% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.2%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0.1% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.8%  
209 0.1% 99.8%  
210 0.2% 99.7%  
211 0.3% 99.5%  
212 0.6% 99.2%  
213 1.2% 98.6%  
214 0.4% 97%  
215 0.8% 97%  
216 3% 96%  
217 4% 94%  
218 5% 90%  
219 5% 84%  
220 4% 80%  
221 2% 76%  
222 2% 74%  
223 7% 72%  
224 3% 65%  
225 3% 62%  
226 2% 59%  
227 5% 57% Median
228 4% 52%  
229 1.2% 48%  
230 3% 47%  
231 3% 44%  
232 5% 41%  
233 1.2% 36%  
234 3% 35%  
235 3% 32%  
236 3% 29%  
237 3% 26%  
238 3% 22%  
239 4% 19%  
240 4% 15%  
241 3% 11%  
242 1.3% 8%  
243 0.9% 7%  
244 0.7% 6%  
245 0.3% 5%  
246 0.5% 5%  
247 0.5% 4%  
248 0.8% 4%  
249 0.4% 3%  
250 0.4% 3%  
251 0.9% 2%  
252 0.3% 1.4%  
253 0.2% 1.1%  
254 0.1% 1.0%  
255 0.2% 0.8%  
256 0.2% 0.7%  
257 0.2% 0.5%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
204 0% 100%  
205 0.1% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.8%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.8%  
209 0.2% 99.7%  
210 0.2% 99.6%  
211 0.3% 99.3%  
212 0.7% 99.0%  
213 1.4% 98%  
214 0.5% 97%  
215 0.9% 96%  
216 3% 95%  
217 5% 92%  
218 6% 87%  
219 5% 81%  
220 2% 76%  
221 2% 74%  
222 2% 72%  
223 6% 70%  
224 3% 64%  
225 3% 61%  
226 3% 57%  
227 4% 54% Median
228 5% 50%  
229 2% 46%  
230 2% 44%  
231 3% 42%  
232 5% 39%  
233 1.0% 34%  
234 3% 33%  
235 2% 30%  
236 4% 28%  
237 5% 24%  
238 4% 19%  
239 3% 15%  
240 3% 13%  
241 3% 10%  
242 0.8% 7%  
243 0.6% 6%  
244 0.7% 6%  
245 0.2% 5%  
246 0.9% 5%  
247 0.6% 4%  
248 0.5% 3%  
249 0.5% 3%  
250 0.4% 2%  
251 0.8% 2%  
252 0.1% 1.1%  
253 0.1% 1.0%  
254 0.1% 0.9%  
255 0.3% 0.8%  
256 0.2% 0.5%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0.1% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
174 0% 100%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.7%  
180 0.3% 99.6%  
181 0.7% 99.3%  
182 0.3% 98.6%  
183 2% 98%  
184 0.1% 96%  
185 0.7% 96%  
186 5% 95%  
187 7% 91%  
188 9% 83%  
189 0.5% 74%  
190 0.6% 73%  
191 3% 73%  
192 3% 70%  
193 7% 67%  
194 1.4% 61%  
195 7% 59%  
196 3% 52% Median
197 3% 49%  
198 1.2% 45%  
199 4% 44%  
200 2% 40%  
201 3% 38%  
202 4% 35%  
203 1.0% 32%  
204 4% 31%  
205 4% 27%  
206 4% 22%  
207 5% 19%  
208 2% 13%  
209 4% 11%  
210 0.7% 7%  
211 0.2% 6%  
212 0.2% 6%  
213 0.9% 6%  
214 0.9% 5%  
215 0.7% 4%  
216 0.1% 3%  
217 0.4% 3%  
218 1.1% 3%  
219 0.5% 2%  
220 0.2% 1.0%  
221 0% 0.8%  
222 0% 0.8%  
223 0.3% 0.8%  
224 0.3% 0.5%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.1% 100%  
176 0% 99.8%  
177 0% 99.8%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.2% 99.7%  
181 0.7% 99.5%  
182 0.1% 98.8%  
183 2% 98.7%  
184 0% 97%  
185 0.6% 97%  
186 4% 96%  
187 5% 92%  
188 9% 87%  
189 2% 78%  
190 3% 76%  
191 2% 74%  
192 3% 72%  
193 7% 69%  
194 1.1% 62%  
195 6% 61%  
196 2% 55% Median
197 5% 52%  
198 1.2% 47%  
199 4% 46%  
200 2% 42%  
201 3% 40%  
202 4% 37%  
203 1.2% 33%  
204 4% 32%  
205 4% 28%  
206 3% 24%  
207 5% 21%  
208 3% 16%  
209 5% 13%  
210 1.2% 8%  
211 0.9% 7%  
212 0.3% 6%  
213 0.7% 6%  
214 0.6% 5%  
215 0.5% 4%  
216 0.3% 4%  
217 0.7% 4%  
218 0.9% 3%  
219 0.4% 2%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.1% 1.0%  
222 0% 0.9%  
223 0.2% 0.8%  
224 0.2% 0.7%  
225 0.2% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.3%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0%  
236 0% 0%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations