Opinion Poll by Survation, 10–11 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 43.4% 45.0% 43.7–46.3% 43.3–46.7% 43.0–47.0% 42.4–47.6%
Labour Party 41.0% 34.0% 32.8–35.3% 32.4–35.6% 32.1–35.9% 31.5–36.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.6% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
Scottish National Party 3.1% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2%
Green Party 1.7% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0%
Brexit Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 356 340–371 336–375 333–378 327–384
Labour Party 262 205 191–219 188–224 186–225 183–230
Liberal Democrats 12 17 15–20 14–21 13–22 10–25
Scottish National Party 35 48 42–52 41–53 41–54 37–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brexit Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–8 5–8 5–8 3–9

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.7% Majority
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.2% 99.1%  
331 0.3% 98.9%  
332 0.3% 98.6%  
333 0.9% 98%  
334 0.8% 97%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 2% 96%  
337 1.2% 94%  
338 0.8% 93%  
339 2% 92%  
340 1.1% 91%  
341 2% 90%  
342 2% 88%  
343 3% 86%  
344 2% 84%  
345 0.8% 82%  
346 2% 81%  
347 2% 79%  
348 3% 77%  
349 3% 74%  
350 2% 71%  
351 4% 69%  
352 3% 65%  
353 3% 62%  
354 3% 59%  
355 4% 56%  
356 6% 52% Median
357 2% 45%  
358 5% 44%  
359 4% 39%  
360 3% 35%  
361 2% 32%  
362 2% 30%  
363 3% 28%  
364 3% 25%  
365 3% 22%  
366 2% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 15%  
369 1.3% 14%  
370 1.5% 13%  
371 1.3% 11%  
372 2% 10%  
373 1.4% 8%  
374 1.2% 7%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 1.1% 4%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.4% 99.6%  
184 0.4% 99.2%  
185 0.7% 98.8%  
186 1.2% 98%  
187 1.2% 97%  
188 3% 96%  
189 1.2% 93%  
190 1.0% 92%  
191 2% 91%  
192 1.1% 89%  
193 2% 88%  
194 0.5% 86%  
195 6% 85%  
196 2% 79%  
197 3% 77%  
198 1.2% 74%  
199 2% 73%  
200 0.5% 70%  
201 2% 70%  
202 4% 67%  
203 2% 63%  
204 10% 61%  
205 2% 51% Median
206 4% 49%  
207 10% 45%  
208 4% 34%  
209 3% 30%  
210 2% 27%  
211 0.4% 26%  
212 1.4% 25%  
213 1.1% 24%  
214 4% 23%  
215 2% 19%  
216 0.4% 17%  
217 1.1% 16%  
218 4% 15%  
219 2% 11%  
220 1.0% 9%  
221 0.8% 8%  
222 0.2% 7%  
223 0.6% 7%  
224 3% 6%  
225 1.0% 3%  
226 0.7% 2%  
227 0.3% 1.2%  
228 0.2% 0.9%  
229 0.2% 0.7%  
230 0.1% 0.6%  
231 0.2% 0.5%  
232 0% 0.3%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.2% 99.7%  
10 0.3% 99.5%  
11 0.5% 99.2%  
12 0.9% 98.7% Last Result
13 2% 98%  
14 3% 96%  
15 5% 93%  
16 21% 87%  
17 34% 66% Median
18 12% 33%  
19 7% 21%  
20 8% 14%  
21 3% 6%  
22 0.9% 3%  
23 0.9% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.3% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.6%  
37 0.6% 99.5%  
38 0.3% 99.0%  
39 0.5% 98.6%  
40 0.4% 98%  
41 7% 98%  
42 7% 91%  
43 5% 84%  
44 0.6% 80%  
45 3% 79%  
46 10% 76%  
47 2% 66%  
48 17% 64% Median
49 18% 47%  
50 2% 29%  
51 16% 27%  
52 4% 11%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0% 0.4%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Brexit Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Brexit Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100%  
4 1.3% 98.9% Last Result
5 73% 98% Median
6 6% 25%  
7 4% 18%  
8 13% 14%  
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 409 100% 393–424 389–427 387–429 382–434
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 403 100% 388–418 384–421 382–423 376–427
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 373 100% 358–388 354–391 352–394 346–400
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 361 99.9% 346–377 341–381 338–384 333–389
Conservative Party – Brexit Party 317 356 99.7% 340–371 336–375 333–378 327–384
Conservative Party 317 356 99.7% 340–371 336–375 333–378 327–384
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru 314 276 0% 261–292 257–296 254–299 248–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 275 0% 260–291 256–295 253–298 247–304
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 270 0% 254–285 250–290 247–293 242–298
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 258 0% 243–273 240–277 237–279 231–285
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 253 0% 237–267 234–272 231–274 225–280
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 228 0% 213–243 210–247 208–249 204–255
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 222 0% 207–238 204–242 202–244 197–249
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 211 0% 197–224 193–229 192–230 188–235
Labour Party 262 205 0% 191–219 188–224 186–225 183–230

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.8%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.6%  
382 0.1% 99.5%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0.2% 99.2%  
385 0.2% 99.0%  
386 0.7% 98.8%  
387 1.0% 98%  
388 0.8% 97%  
389 2% 96%  
390 1.1% 95%  
391 0.9% 94%  
392 0.9% 93%  
393 2% 92%  
394 1.1% 90%  
395 1.2% 89%  
396 2% 87%  
397 3% 86%  
398 2% 82%  
399 2% 80%  
400 1.3% 78%  
401 1.2% 77%  
402 2% 76%  
403 2% 74%  
404 2% 72%  
405 3% 70%  
406 4% 67%  
407 7% 63%  
408 5% 56%  
409 2% 51% Median
410 7% 49%  
411 5% 42%  
412 4% 38%  
413 3% 34%  
414 1.4% 31%  
415 1.5% 29%  
416 2% 28%  
417 3% 26%  
418 2% 24%  
419 4% 21%  
420 2% 17%  
421 2% 14%  
422 1.1% 13%  
423 2% 12%  
424 1.5% 10%  
425 2% 9%  
426 1.4% 7%  
427 1.2% 6%  
428 1.4% 5%  
429 1.2% 3%  
430 0.5% 2%  
431 0.3% 1.3%  
432 0.3% 1.0%  
433 0.2% 0.7%  
434 0.2% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0.1% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.1% 99.6%  
377 0.1% 99.5%  
378 0.2% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.2%  
380 0.2% 98.9%  
381 0.6% 98.7%  
382 1.2% 98%  
383 0.7% 97%  
384 2% 96%  
385 1.2% 95%  
386 1.0% 93%  
387 0.8% 92%  
388 2% 91%  
389 0.9% 89%  
390 2% 88%  
391 2% 87%  
392 4% 85%  
393 2% 81%  
394 0.7% 79%  
395 2% 78%  
396 1.4% 77%  
397 2% 75%  
398 2% 73%  
399 2% 70%  
400 4% 68%  
401 4% 64%  
402 7% 60%  
403 5% 53%  
404 2% 49% Median
405 8% 47%  
406 4% 39%  
407 2% 35%  
408 2% 32%  
409 2% 30%  
410 2% 28%  
411 3% 27%  
412 3% 24%  
413 1.3% 21%  
414 4% 19%  
415 2% 16%  
416 1.3% 13%  
417 1.3% 12%  
418 2% 11%  
419 1.1% 9%  
420 1.3% 8%  
421 2% 6%  
422 1.2% 5%  
423 1.3% 3%  
424 0.8% 2%  
425 0.3% 1.3%  
426 0.3% 0.9%  
427 0.2% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0.1% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.3% 99.3%  
348 0.3% 99.1%  
349 0.2% 98.8%  
350 0.4% 98.6%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.8% 98%  
353 0.9% 97%  
354 2% 96%  
355 1.2% 94%  
356 1.2% 93%  
357 1.0% 92%  
358 1.2% 91%  
359 1.3% 90%  
360 2% 88%  
361 3% 86%  
362 2% 83%  
363 2% 82%  
364 1.0% 80%  
365 3% 79%  
366 3% 76%  
367 2% 73%  
368 5% 71%  
369 3% 66%  
370 4% 63%  
371 5% 59%  
372 3% 54%  
373 6% 52% Median
374 4% 46%  
375 2% 41%  
376 6% 39%  
377 1.4% 34%  
378 2% 32%  
379 3% 30%  
380 3% 28%  
381 3% 25%  
382 3% 22%  
383 3% 19%  
384 2% 17%  
385 1.4% 15%  
386 1.4% 14%  
387 2% 12%  
388 2% 11%  
389 2% 9%  
390 1.3% 7%  
391 1.2% 6%  
392 1.0% 5%  
393 0.9% 4%  
394 0.5% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.3% 1.0%  
399 0.2% 0.8%  
400 0.1% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100% Last Result
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.8%  
330 0% 99.7%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.1% 99.6%  
333 0.2% 99.5%  
334 0.2% 99.3%  
335 0.3% 99.2%  
336 0.2% 98.9%  
337 0.3% 98.6%  
338 0.8% 98%  
339 0.8% 97%  
340 0.5% 97%  
341 2% 96%  
342 1.1% 95%  
343 0.9% 94%  
344 1.2% 93%  
345 1.0% 91%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 89%  
348 2% 86%  
349 2% 85%  
350 2% 83%  
351 1.3% 81%  
352 2% 80%  
353 3% 78%  
354 2% 75%  
355 2% 73%  
356 4% 71%  
357 3% 67%  
358 3% 64%  
359 4% 61%  
360 4% 57%  
361 5% 53% Median
362 2% 48%  
363 5% 46%  
364 5% 41%  
365 3% 36%  
366 2% 33%  
367 2% 31%  
368 1.4% 29%  
369 3% 28%  
370 4% 25%  
371 2% 21%  
372 2% 19%  
373 1.0% 16%  
374 1.4% 15%  
375 1.3% 14%  
376 1.4% 12%  
377 2% 11%  
378 1.4% 9%  
379 1.3% 8%  
380 0.8% 6%  
381 1.3% 5%  
382 0.7% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.4% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.3%  
388 0.3% 1.0%  
389 0.2% 0.7%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Brexit Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.7% Majority
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.2% 99.1%  
331 0.3% 98.9%  
332 0.3% 98.6%  
333 0.9% 98%  
334 0.8% 97%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 2% 96%  
337 1.2% 94%  
338 0.8% 93%  
339 2% 92%  
340 1.1% 91%  
341 2% 90%  
342 2% 88%  
343 3% 86%  
344 2% 84%  
345 0.8% 82%  
346 2% 81%  
347 2% 79%  
348 3% 77%  
349 3% 74%  
350 2% 71%  
351 4% 69%  
352 3% 65%  
353 3% 62%  
354 3% 59%  
355 4% 56%  
356 6% 52% Median
357 2% 45%  
358 5% 44%  
359 4% 39%  
360 3% 35%  
361 2% 32%  
362 2% 30%  
363 3% 28%  
364 3% 25%  
365 3% 22%  
366 2% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 15%  
369 1.3% 14%  
370 1.5% 13%  
371 1.3% 11%  
372 2% 10%  
373 1.4% 8%  
374 1.2% 7%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 1.1% 4%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100% Last Result
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.7% Majority
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.2% 99.1%  
331 0.3% 98.9%  
332 0.3% 98.6%  
333 0.9% 98%  
334 0.8% 97%  
335 0.6% 97%  
336 2% 96%  
337 1.2% 94%  
338 0.8% 93%  
339 2% 92%  
340 1.1% 91%  
341 2% 90%  
342 2% 88%  
343 3% 86%  
344 2% 84%  
345 0.8% 82%  
346 2% 81%  
347 2% 79%  
348 3% 77%  
349 3% 74%  
350 2% 71%  
351 4% 69%  
352 3% 65%  
353 3% 62%  
354 3% 59%  
355 4% 56%  
356 6% 52% Median
357 2% 45%  
358 5% 44%  
359 4% 39%  
360 3% 35%  
361 2% 32%  
362 2% 30%  
363 3% 28%  
364 3% 25%  
365 3% 22%  
366 2% 19%  
367 2% 18%  
368 1.4% 15%  
369 1.3% 14%  
370 1.5% 13%  
371 1.3% 11%  
372 2% 10%  
373 1.4% 8%  
374 1.2% 7%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 1.1% 4%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.4% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.9%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Green Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.2% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.3%  
251 0.4% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 98.8%  
253 0.7% 98%  
254 0.5% 98%  
255 0.6% 97%  
256 1.1% 97%  
257 0.9% 96%  
258 1.2% 95%  
259 1.4% 93%  
260 2% 92%  
261 1.3% 90%  
262 1.5% 89%  
263 1.3% 87%  
264 1.4% 86%  
265 2% 85%  
266 2% 82%  
267 3% 81%  
268 3% 78%  
269 3% 75%  
270 2% 72%  
271 2% 70%  
272 3% 68%  
273 4% 65%  
274 5% 61%  
275 2% 56%  
276 6% 55% Median
277 4% 48%  
278 3% 44%  
279 3% 41%  
280 3% 38%  
281 4% 35%  
282 2% 31%  
283 3% 29%  
284 3% 26%  
285 2% 23%  
286 2% 21%  
287 0.8% 19%  
288 2% 18%  
289 3% 16%  
290 2% 14%  
291 2% 12%  
292 1.1% 10%  
293 2% 9%  
294 0.8% 8%  
295 1.2% 7%  
296 2% 6%  
297 0.6% 4%  
298 0.8% 3%  
299 0.9% 3%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.3% 1.4%  
302 0.2% 1.1%  
303 0.2% 0.9%  
304 0.2% 0.7%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.2% 99.7%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.3%  
250 0.4% 99.1%  
251 0.3% 98.8%  
252 0.7% 98%  
253 0.5% 98%  
254 0.6% 97%  
255 1.1% 97%  
256 0.9% 96%  
257 1.2% 95%  
258 1.4% 93%  
259 2% 92%  
260 1.3% 90%  
261 1.5% 89%  
262 1.3% 87%  
263 1.4% 86%  
264 2% 85%  
265 2% 82%  
266 3% 81%  
267 3% 78%  
268 3% 75%  
269 2% 72%  
270 2% 70%  
271 3% 68%  
272 4% 65%  
273 5% 61%  
274 2% 56%  
275 6% 55% Median
276 4% 48%  
277 3% 44%  
278 3% 41%  
279 3% 38%  
280 4% 35%  
281 2% 31%  
282 3% 29%  
283 3% 26%  
284 2% 23%  
285 2% 21%  
286 0.8% 19%  
287 2% 18%  
288 3% 16%  
289 2% 14%  
290 2% 12%  
291 1.1% 10%  
292 2% 9%  
293 0.8% 8%  
294 1.2% 7%  
295 2% 6%  
296 0.6% 4%  
297 0.8% 3%  
298 0.9% 3%  
299 0.3% 2%  
300 0.3% 1.4%  
301 0.2% 1.1%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.2% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0.1% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.3% 99.3%  
244 0.3% 99.0%  
245 0.4% 98.7%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.6% 98%  
248 0.8% 97%  
249 0.7% 97%  
250 1.3% 96%  
251 0.8% 95%  
252 1.3% 94%  
253 1.4% 92%  
254 2% 91%  
255 1.4% 89%  
256 1.3% 88%  
257 1.4% 86%  
258 1.0% 85%  
259 2% 84%  
260 2% 81%  
261 4% 79%  
262 3% 75%  
263 1.4% 72%  
264 2% 71%  
265 2% 69%  
266 3% 67%  
267 5% 64%  
268 5% 59%  
269 2% 54%  
270 5% 52% Median
271 4% 47%  
272 4% 43%  
273 3% 39%  
274 3% 36%  
275 4% 33%  
276 2% 29%  
277 2% 27%  
278 3% 25%  
279 2% 22%  
280 1.3% 20%  
281 2% 19%  
282 2% 17%  
283 2% 15%  
284 2% 14%  
285 2% 11%  
286 1.0% 10%  
287 1.2% 9%  
288 0.9% 7%  
289 1.1% 6%  
290 2% 5%  
291 0.5% 4%  
292 0.8% 3%  
293 0.8% 3%  
294 0.3% 2%  
295 0.2% 1.4%  
296 0.3% 1.1%  
297 0.2% 0.8%  
298 0.2% 0.7%  
299 0.1% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.4%  
301 0% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.2% 99.4%  
233 0.3% 99.2%  
234 0.6% 99.0%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 0.5% 98%  
237 0.5% 98%  
238 0.9% 97%  
239 1.0% 96%  
240 1.2% 95%  
241 1.3% 94%  
242 2% 93%  
243 2% 91%  
244 2% 89%  
245 1.4% 88%  
246 1.4% 86%  
247 2% 85%  
248 3% 83%  
249 3% 81%  
250 3% 78%  
251 3% 75%  
252 3% 72%  
253 2% 70%  
254 1.4% 68%  
255 6% 66%  
256 2% 61%  
257 4% 59%  
258 6% 54% Median
259 3% 48%  
260 5% 46%  
261 4% 41%  
262 3% 37%  
263 5% 34%  
264 2% 29%  
265 3% 27%  
266 3% 24%  
267 1.0% 21%  
268 2% 20%  
269 2% 18%  
270 3% 17%  
271 2% 14%  
272 1.3% 12%  
273 1.2% 10%  
274 1.0% 9%  
275 1.2% 8%  
276 1.2% 7%  
277 2% 6%  
278 0.9% 4%  
279 0.8% 3%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.2% 1.4%  
283 0.3% 1.2%  
284 0.3% 0.9%  
285 0.2% 0.7%  
286 0.1% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.7%  
225 0.2% 99.6%  
226 0.2% 99.4%  
227 0.3% 99.2%  
228 0.3% 98.9%  
229 0.6% 98.6%  
230 0.2% 98%  
231 0.6% 98%  
232 0.8% 97%  
233 1.1% 96%  
234 1.1% 95%  
235 1.1% 94%  
236 1.1% 93%  
237 2% 92%  
238 2% 90%  
239 1.3% 88%  
240 1.3% 87%  
241 2% 85%  
242 2% 84%  
243 2% 82%  
244 5% 80%  
245 2% 75%  
246 2% 73%  
247 2% 71%  
248 2% 69%  
249 2% 67%  
250 6% 65%  
251 3% 59%  
252 4% 56%  
253 6% 52% Median
254 3% 46%  
255 5% 44%  
256 4% 39%  
257 3% 35%  
258 4% 32%  
259 2% 27%  
260 3% 26%  
261 2% 23%  
262 1.1% 21%  
263 2% 20%  
264 2% 18%  
265 3% 16%  
266 1.4% 12%  
267 1.3% 11%  
268 0.8% 10%  
269 0.8% 9%  
270 1.2% 8%  
271 1.1% 7%  
272 2% 6%  
273 0.9% 4%  
274 0.9% 3%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.4% 2%  
277 0.2% 1.3%  
278 0.2% 1.1%  
279 0.3% 0.9%  
280 0.2% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0.1% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.1% 99.7%  
204 0.2% 99.6%  
205 0.3% 99.4%  
206 0.3% 99.1%  
207 0.8% 98.7%  
208 1.3% 98%  
209 1.2% 97%  
210 2% 95%  
211 1.3% 94%  
212 1.1% 92%  
213 2% 91%  
214 1.3% 89%  
215 1.3% 88%  
216 2% 87%  
217 4% 84%  
218 1.3% 81%  
219 3% 79%  
220 3% 76%  
221 2% 73%  
222 2% 72%  
223 2% 70%  
224 2% 68%  
225 4% 65%  
226 8% 61%  
227 2% 53% Median
228 5% 51%  
229 7% 47%  
230 4% 40%  
231 4% 36%  
232 2% 32%  
233 2% 30%  
234 2% 27%  
235 1.4% 25%  
236 2% 23%  
237 0.7% 22%  
238 2% 21%  
239 4% 19%  
240 2% 15%  
241 2% 13%  
242 0.9% 12%  
243 2% 11%  
244 0.8% 9%  
245 1.0% 8%  
246 1.2% 7%  
247 2% 5%  
248 0.7% 4%  
249 1.2% 3%  
250 0.6% 2%  
251 0.2% 1.3%  
252 0.3% 1.1%  
253 0.2% 0.8%  
254 0.1% 0.6%  
255 0.1% 0.5%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.2% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.5%  
199 0.3% 99.3%  
200 0.3% 99.0%  
201 0.5% 98.7%  
202 1.2% 98%  
203 1.4% 97%  
204 1.2% 95%  
205 1.4% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 1.5% 91%  
208 2% 90%  
209 1.1% 88%  
210 2% 87%  
211 2% 86%  
212 4% 83%  
213 2% 79%  
214 3% 76%  
215 2% 74%  
216 1.5% 72%  
217 1.4% 71%  
218 3% 69%  
219 4% 66%  
220 5% 62%  
221 7% 58%  
222 2% 51% Median
223 5% 49%  
224 7% 44%  
225 4% 37%  
226 3% 33%  
227 2% 30%  
228 2% 28%  
229 2% 26%  
230 1.2% 24%  
231 1.3% 23%  
232 2% 22%  
233 2% 20%  
234 3% 18%  
235 2% 14%  
236 1.2% 13%  
237 1.1% 11%  
238 2% 10%  
239 0.9% 8%  
240 0.9% 7%  
241 1.1% 6%  
242 2% 5%  
243 0.8% 4%  
244 1.0% 3%  
245 0.7% 2%  
246 0.2% 1.2%  
247 0.2% 1.0%  
248 0.2% 0.8%  
249 0.1% 0.6%  
250 0.1% 0.5%  
251 0.1% 0.4%  
252 0% 0.3%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
185 0.1% 100%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.8%  
188 0.3% 99.8%  
189 0% 99.5%  
190 0.1% 99.5%  
191 1.2% 99.4%  
192 1.4% 98%  
193 3% 97%  
194 0.4% 93%  
195 0.3% 93%  
196 2% 93%  
197 2% 90%  
198 2% 89%  
199 0.3% 87%  
200 6% 86%  
201 0.4% 80%  
202 4% 80%  
203 0.5% 76%  
204 4% 75%  
205 0.6% 71%  
206 2% 71%  
207 2% 68%  
208 0.8% 66%  
209 11% 65%  
210 3% 54% Median
211 3% 51%  
212 11% 48%  
213 5% 38%  
214 5% 33%  
215 2% 28%  
216 0.3% 26%  
217 1.1% 26%  
218 1.3% 25%  
219 4% 23%  
220 1.4% 19%  
221 0.3% 18%  
222 2% 18%  
223 4% 15%  
224 2% 11%  
225 0.8% 9%  
226 0.5% 8%  
227 0.1% 8%  
228 0.8% 8%  
229 4% 7%  
230 1.0% 3%  
231 0.6% 2%  
232 0.3% 1.3%  
233 0.2% 1.0%  
234 0.2% 0.8%  
235 0.1% 0.6%  
236 0.2% 0.5%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0.1% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.4% 99.6%  
184 0.4% 99.2%  
185 0.7% 98.8%  
186 1.2% 98%  
187 1.2% 97%  
188 3% 96%  
189 1.2% 93%  
190 1.0% 92%  
191 2% 91%  
192 1.1% 89%  
193 2% 88%  
194 0.5% 86%  
195 6% 85%  
196 2% 79%  
197 3% 77%  
198 1.2% 74%  
199 2% 73%  
200 0.5% 70%  
201 2% 70%  
202 4% 67%  
203 2% 63%  
204 10% 61%  
205 2% 51% Median
206 4% 49%  
207 10% 45%  
208 4% 34%  
209 3% 30%  
210 2% 27%  
211 0.4% 26%  
212 1.4% 25%  
213 1.1% 24%  
214 4% 23%  
215 2% 19%  
216 0.4% 17%  
217 1.1% 16%  
218 4% 15%  
219 2% 11%  
220 1.0% 9%  
221 0.8% 8%  
222 0.2% 7%  
223 0.6% 7%  
224 3% 6%  
225 1.0% 3%  
226 0.7% 2%  
227 0.3% 1.2%  
228 0.2% 0.9%  
229 0.2% 0.7%  
230 0.1% 0.6%  
231 0.2% 0.5%  
232 0% 0.3%  
233 0% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.2%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  
238 0% 0%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations