Opinion Poll by Gallup International for БНТ, 1–9 August 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) |
0.0% |
25.2% |
23.3–27.2% |
22.8–27.8% |
22.3–28.3% |
21.4–29.3% |
Движение за права и свободи (RE) |
0.0% |
14.5% |
13.0–16.2% |
12.6–16.7% |
12.2–17.1% |
11.5–17.9% |
Възраждане (ESN) |
0.0% |
14.2% |
12.7–15.9% |
12.3–16.4% |
12.0–16.8% |
11.3–17.6% |
Продължаваме промяната (RE) |
0.0% |
9.1% |
7.9–10.5% |
7.6–10.9% |
7.3–11.3% |
6.8–12.0% |
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) |
0.0% |
7.4% |
6.3–8.7% |
6.0–9.1% |
5.7–9.4% |
5.3–10.0% |
Има такъв народ (ECR) |
0.0% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.5% |
5.0–7.8% |
4.8–8.1% |
4.3–8.8% |
Величие (*) |
0.0% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.6% |
2.7–4.9% |
2.5–5.2% |
2.2–5.7% |
Да, България! (EPP) |
0.0% |
3.5% |
2.8–4.5% |
2.6–4.8% |
2.4–5.0% |
2.1–5.5% |
Морал, Единство, Чест (*) |
0.0% |
3.4% |
2.7–4.3% |
2.5–4.6% |
2.3–4.9% |
2.0–5.4% |
Демократична България (EPP) |
0.0% |
2.6% |
2.0–3.5% |
1.9–3.7% |
1.7–4.0% |
1.5–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
21% |
100% |
|
5 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
6 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Движение за права и свободи (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
27% |
100% |
|
3 |
72% |
73% |
Median |
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Възраждане (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане (ESN) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
21% |
100% |
|
3 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Продължаваме промяната (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната (RE) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
85% |
98.9% |
Median |
3 |
14% |
14% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Българска социалистическа партия (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Българска социалистическа партия (S&D) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
73% |
96% |
Median |
2 |
23% |
23% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Има такъв народ (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ (ECR) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
32% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
65% |
68% |
Median |
2 |
2% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Величие (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Величие (*) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Да, България! (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Да, България! (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
44% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
56% |
56% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Морал, Единство, Чест (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Морал, Единство, Чест (*) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Демократична България (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България (EPP) page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
90% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
10% |
10% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Възраждане (ESN) |
0 |
3 |
0% |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
2–3 |
Възраждане (ESN)
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
21% |
100% |
|
3 |
79% |
79% |
Median |
4 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup International
- Commissioner(s): БНТ
- Fieldwork period: 1–9 August 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 802
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%