Opinion Poll by Тренд for 24 часа, 23–30 July 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 22.4% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.1–25.9%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.1–24.2% 18.4–25.1%
БСП за България 13.2% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.5% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Демократична България 12.5% 14.1% 12.8–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.5–17.1%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 10.2% 9.1–11.6% 8.8–11.9% 8.5–12.3% 8.0–12.9%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
Възраждане 3.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 62 57–67 55–69 54–70 53–72
Има такъв народ 65 60 55–65 54–66 53–68 51–70
БСП за България 36 40 36–45 35–46 34–47 33–49
Демократична България 34 39 36–43 34–45 33–46 32–48
Движение за права и свободи 29 29 25–32 24–33 23–34 22–36
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 12 0–14 0–15 0–16 0–17
Възраждане 0 0 0 0 0–11 0–12
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.0%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 5% 91%  
58 6% 86%  
59 5% 80%  
60 7% 75%  
61 12% 68%  
62 10% 56% Median
63 11% 46% Last Result
64 8% 36%  
65 7% 27%  
66 6% 21%  
67 5% 15%  
68 5% 10%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.2% 3%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 1.5% 99.0%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 6% 88%  
57 10% 82%  
58 9% 72%  
59 8% 63%  
60 11% 55% Median
61 10% 44%  
62 10% 34%  
63 7% 24%  
64 6% 17%  
65 5% 12% Last Result
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.3% 3%  
69 0.8% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.0% 99.5%  
34 2% 98.5%  
35 4% 97%  
36 6% 93% Last Result
37 8% 87%  
38 8% 79%  
39 11% 71%  
40 11% 60% Median
41 11% 49%  
42 13% 38%  
43 8% 25%  
44 7% 17%  
45 5% 11%  
46 2% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.8% 99.6%  
33 1.3% 98.8%  
34 4% 97% Last Result
35 3% 93%  
36 11% 91%  
37 7% 80%  
38 17% 73%  
39 9% 56% Median
40 15% 47%  
41 7% 32%  
42 10% 25%  
43 5% 15%  
44 5% 10%  
45 2% 5%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 1.5%  
48 0.6% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 4% 97%  
25 7% 93%  
26 9% 86%  
27 11% 78%  
28 16% 66%  
29 14% 51% Last Result, Median
30 13% 37%  
31 10% 24%  
32 6% 14%  
33 4% 8%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100%  
1 0% 72%  
2 0% 72%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 0% 72%  
8 0% 72%  
9 0% 72%  
10 0% 72%  
11 10% 72%  
12 18% 62% Median
13 20% 44% Last Result
14 15% 24%  
15 4% 9%  
16 3% 4%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 2% 3%  
12 1.0% 1.4%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 138 100% 132–144 130–146 128–147 125–149
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 130 129 95% 122–136 121–138 119–140 116–143
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 79 0% 71–85 69–86 67–88 64–90
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 69 0% 64–74 62–76 61–77 59–80

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100% Majority
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.3% 99.6%  
126 0.7% 99.3%  
127 0.8% 98.7%  
128 1.1% 98%  
129 1.0% 97%  
130 3% 96%  
131 3% 93%  
132 3% 91%  
133 3% 87%  
134 6% 84%  
135 6% 78%  
136 8% 72%  
137 8% 65%  
138 9% 57%  
139 7% 48%  
140 5% 41%  
141 11% 36% Median
142 6% 25%  
143 6% 20% Last Result
144 4% 13%  
145 4% 10%  
146 2% 6%  
147 1.3% 4%  
148 1.2% 2%  
149 0.6% 1.1%  
150 0.2% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.4%  
118 0.9% 99.0%  
119 2% 98%  
120 1.3% 97%  
121 3% 95% Majority
122 3% 92%  
123 5% 89%  
124 6% 85%  
125 7% 79%  
126 5% 72%  
127 9% 67%  
128 7% 58%  
129 8% 51% Median
130 6% 43% Last Result
131 6% 37%  
132 6% 31%  
133 4% 25%  
134 5% 21%  
135 4% 16%  
136 4% 12%  
137 2% 8%  
138 3% 6%  
139 0.6% 3%  
140 0.8% 3%  
141 1.0% 2%  
142 0.2% 0.8%  
143 0.3% 0.6%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.4%  
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 1.1% 92%  
71 6% 91%  
72 4% 85%  
73 4% 82%  
74 3% 78%  
75 5% 75%  
76 4% 70%  
77 7% 67%  
78 4% 60% Last Result
79 8% 56%  
80 10% 48%  
81 10% 38% Median
82 4% 29%  
83 7% 24%  
84 6% 17%  
85 3% 12%  
86 4% 8%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.4% 3%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 99.1%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 3% 94%  
64 5% 91%  
65 6% 86% Last Result
66 6% 80%  
67 12% 75%  
68 8% 62%  
69 11% 54% Median
70 7% 43%  
71 10% 37%  
72 8% 27%  
73 5% 18%  
74 3% 13%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.4% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations