ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
Voting Intentions
Last result: 3.1% (General Election of 11 July 2021)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2.0% | 0.8–3.1% | 0.6–3.5% | 0.5–3.8% | 0.3–4.4% |
| 10–17 October 2021 | Gallup BNR |
2.4% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.4–4.0% | 1.1–4.6% |
| 5–12 October 2021 | Sova Harris Dir.bg |
1.8% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–3.0% | 1.0–3.3% | 0.8–3.8% |
| 6–12 October 2021 | Exacta | 2.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.4–4.1% | 1.1–4.8% |
| 6–10 October 2021 | Център за анализи и маркетинг | 0.7% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.2–1.9% |
| 4–10 October 2021 | Алфа рисърч | 2.1% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.2–3.6% | 0.9–4.2% |
| 21–26 September 2021 | Gallup | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 14–20 September 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–15 September 2021 | Тренд | 2.2% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.6% | 1.3–3.9% | 1.0–4.5% |
| 8–15 September 2021 | Алфа рисърч | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2–10 September 2021 | Gallup | 2.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.3–4.1% | 1.0–4.7% |
| 13–22 August 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–30 July 2021 | Тренд 24 часа |
1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.3% |
| 21–28 July 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 3% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 26% | 97% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 43% | 71% | Median |
| 2.5–3.5% | 24% | 28% | Last Result |
| 3.5–4.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 11 July 2021)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–12 |
| 10–17 October 2021 | Gallup BNR |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–12 |
| 5–12 October 2021 | Sova Harris Dir.bg |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6–12 October 2021 | Exacta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| 6–10 October 2021 | Център за анализи и маркетинг | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4–10 October 2021 | Алфа рисърч | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 |
| 21–26 September 2021 | Gallup | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–20 September 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
|||||
| 8–15 September 2021 | Тренд | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 |
| 8–15 September 2021 | Алфа рисърч | |||||
| 2–10 September 2021 | Gallup | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–13 |
| 13–22 August 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
|||||
| 23–30 July 2021 | Тренд 24 часа |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–28 July 2021 | Маркет ЛИНКС bTV |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |