Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–10 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България |
23.2% |
22.6% |
20.2–25.2% |
19.6–25.9% |
19.0–26.6% |
18.0–27.8% |
БСП за България |
13.2% |
16.0% |
14.0–18.4% |
13.5–19.0% |
13.0–19.6% |
12.1–20.8% |
Демократична България |
12.5% |
15.8% |
13.8–18.2% |
13.3–18.8% |
12.8–19.4% |
11.9–20.5% |
Има такъв народ |
23.8% |
15.4% |
13.4–17.7% |
12.9–18.4% |
12.4–18.9% |
11.5–20.1% |
Движение за права и свободи |
10.6% |
11.8% |
10.1–13.9% |
9.6–14.5% |
9.2–15.0% |
8.4–16.1% |
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! |
5.0% |
4.9% |
3.8–6.4% |
3.5–6.8% |
3.3–7.2% |
2.8–8.0% |
Възраждане |
3.0% |
3.2% |
2.3–4.5% |
2.1–4.8% |
1.9–5.2% |
1.6–5.9% |
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение |
3.1% |
2.3% |
1.6–3.5% |
1.5–3.8% |
1.3–4.1% |
1.0–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Граждани за европейско развитие на България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
51 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
52 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
53 |
2% |
97% |
|
54 |
2% |
94% |
|
55 |
3% |
92% |
|
56 |
7% |
89% |
|
57 |
3% |
82% |
|
58 |
3% |
79% |
|
59 |
8% |
76% |
|
60 |
8% |
68% |
|
61 |
5% |
60% |
|
62 |
9% |
56% |
Median |
63 |
5% |
46% |
Last Result |
64 |
9% |
41% |
|
65 |
4% |
32% |
|
66 |
7% |
28% |
|
67 |
7% |
21% |
|
68 |
2% |
14% |
|
69 |
3% |
12% |
|
70 |
3% |
9% |
|
71 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
72 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
73 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
74 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
76 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
77 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
79 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
БСП за България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
36 |
2% |
97% |
Last Result |
37 |
3% |
95% |
|
38 |
3% |
92% |
|
39 |
6% |
89% |
|
40 |
5% |
83% |
|
41 |
8% |
78% |
|
42 |
5% |
70% |
|
43 |
9% |
65% |
|
44 |
8% |
56% |
Median |
45 |
9% |
48% |
|
46 |
6% |
39% |
|
47 |
11% |
33% |
|
48 |
4% |
22% |
|
49 |
6% |
18% |
|
50 |
2% |
12% |
|
51 |
3% |
10% |
|
52 |
2% |
7% |
|
53 |
2% |
5% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
55 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
57 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Демократична България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
34 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
35 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
36 |
2% |
97% |
|
37 |
3% |
95% |
|
38 |
7% |
92% |
|
39 |
5% |
85% |
|
40 |
5% |
80% |
|
41 |
6% |
75% |
|
42 |
7% |
69% |
|
43 |
10% |
63% |
|
44 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
45 |
13% |
45% |
|
46 |
6% |
32% |
|
47 |
6% |
25% |
|
48 |
4% |
19% |
|
49 |
4% |
15% |
|
50 |
2% |
10% |
|
51 |
2% |
8% |
|
52 |
2% |
6% |
|
53 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
55 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Има такъв народ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
98.9% |
|
34 |
2% |
98% |
|
35 |
2% |
96% |
|
36 |
4% |
94% |
|
37 |
4% |
90% |
|
38 |
5% |
86% |
|
39 |
9% |
81% |
|
40 |
8% |
72% |
|
41 |
8% |
64% |
|
42 |
6% |
56% |
Median |
43 |
7% |
49% |
|
44 |
8% |
42% |
|
45 |
10% |
34% |
|
46 |
7% |
25% |
|
47 |
4% |
18% |
|
48 |
4% |
13% |
|
49 |
3% |
10% |
|
50 |
2% |
6% |
|
51 |
1.5% |
5% |
|
52 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
53 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
54 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Движение за права и свободи
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
1.2% |
99.1% |
|
25 |
2% |
98% |
|
26 |
3% |
96% |
|
27 |
2% |
93% |
|
28 |
4% |
91% |
|
29 |
7% |
87% |
Last Result |
30 |
6% |
81% |
|
31 |
15% |
74% |
|
32 |
15% |
60% |
Median |
33 |
8% |
45% |
|
34 |
6% |
36% |
|
35 |
3% |
30% |
|
36 |
8% |
27% |
|
37 |
6% |
19% |
|
38 |
3% |
14% |
|
39 |
4% |
10% |
|
40 |
3% |
6% |
|
41 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
1.4% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
17% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
83% |
|
2 |
0% |
83% |
|
3 |
0% |
83% |
|
4 |
0% |
83% |
|
5 |
0% |
83% |
|
6 |
0% |
83% |
|
7 |
0% |
83% |
|
8 |
0% |
83% |
|
9 |
0% |
83% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
83% |
|
11 |
6% |
83% |
|
12 |
12% |
77% |
|
13 |
17% |
66% |
Last Result, Median |
14 |
12% |
49% |
|
15 |
14% |
37% |
|
16 |
7% |
23% |
|
17 |
7% |
16% |
|
18 |
3% |
9% |
|
19 |
3% |
6% |
|
20 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Възраждане
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
80% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
20% |
|
2 |
0% |
20% |
|
3 |
0% |
20% |
|
4 |
0% |
20% |
|
5 |
0% |
20% |
|
6 |
0% |
20% |
|
7 |
0% |
20% |
|
8 |
0% |
20% |
|
9 |
0% |
20% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
20% |
|
11 |
8% |
20% |
|
12 |
6% |
12% |
|
13 |
3% |
6% |
|
14 |
2% |
3% |
|
15 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
16 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
97% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
3% |
|
2 |
0% |
3% |
|
3 |
0% |
3% |
|
4 |
0% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
3% |
|
8 |
0% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
3% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
12 |
0.9% |
1.5% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! |
143 |
132 |
94% |
123–140 |
119–142 |
117–145 |
113–148 |
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи |
130 |
119 |
43% |
111–128 |
108–130 |
106–132 |
102–138 |
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! |
78 |
90 |
0% |
79–97 |
77–100 |
75–102 |
71–105 |
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи |
65 |
77 |
0% |
69–84 |
67–87 |
66–89 |
62–93 |
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
107 |
0% |
100% |
|
108 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
110 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
111 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
113 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
114 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
115 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
116 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
117 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
118 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
119 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
120 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
121 |
2% |
94% |
Majority |
122 |
2% |
92% |
|
123 |
2% |
90% |
|
124 |
4% |
88% |
|
125 |
5% |
84% |
|
126 |
3% |
78% |
|
127 |
2% |
76% |
|
128 |
4% |
73% |
|
129 |
5% |
69% |
|
130 |
6% |
64% |
|
131 |
6% |
58% |
Median |
132 |
7% |
52% |
|
133 |
5% |
45% |
|
134 |
7% |
40% |
|
135 |
6% |
33% |
|
136 |
4% |
27% |
|
137 |
3% |
23% |
|
138 |
4% |
20% |
|
139 |
5% |
17% |
|
140 |
2% |
11% |
|
141 |
4% |
9% |
|
142 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
143 |
1.0% |
4% |
Last Result |
144 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
145 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
146 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
147 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
148 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
152 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
98 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
102 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
104 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
105 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
106 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
107 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
108 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
109 |
2% |
95% |
|
110 |
2% |
92% |
|
111 |
4% |
90% |
|
112 |
3% |
86% |
|
113 |
3% |
84% |
|
114 |
3% |
81% |
|
115 |
5% |
78% |
|
116 |
5% |
73% |
|
117 |
7% |
68% |
|
118 |
8% |
61% |
Median |
119 |
5% |
53% |
|
120 |
5% |
48% |
|
121 |
5% |
43% |
Majority |
122 |
5% |
38% |
|
123 |
5% |
33% |
|
124 |
5% |
28% |
|
125 |
5% |
24% |
|
126 |
4% |
18% |
|
127 |
2% |
15% |
|
128 |
3% |
12% |
|
129 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
130 |
4% |
8% |
Last Result |
131 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
132 |
2% |
4% |
|
133 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
134 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
135 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
136 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
137 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
71 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
73 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
74 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
75 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
76 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
77 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
78 |
2% |
95% |
Last Result |
79 |
3% |
93% |
|
80 |
3% |
90% |
|
81 |
3% |
87% |
|
82 |
2% |
84% |
|
83 |
2% |
81% |
|
84 |
2% |
79% |
|
85 |
4% |
77% |
|
86 |
6% |
73% |
|
87 |
6% |
68% |
|
88 |
5% |
61% |
|
89 |
5% |
56% |
Median |
90 |
10% |
51% |
|
91 |
3% |
41% |
|
92 |
7% |
38% |
|
93 |
6% |
31% |
|
94 |
6% |
26% |
|
95 |
3% |
20% |
|
96 |
3% |
17% |
|
97 |
4% |
14% |
|
98 |
3% |
10% |
|
99 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
100 |
2% |
6% |
|
101 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
102 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
103 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
104 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
105 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
64 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
65 |
0.7% |
98% |
Last Result |
66 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
67 |
2% |
96% |
|
68 |
2% |
95% |
|
69 |
3% |
93% |
|
70 |
3% |
90% |
|
71 |
3% |
87% |
|
72 |
7% |
84% |
|
73 |
5% |
77% |
|
74 |
6% |
72% |
|
75 |
7% |
66% |
|
76 |
6% |
58% |
Median |
77 |
5% |
52% |
|
78 |
6% |
47% |
|
79 |
7% |
41% |
|
80 |
7% |
34% |
|
81 |
6% |
27% |
|
82 |
3% |
21% |
|
83 |
5% |
17% |
|
84 |
2% |
12% |
|
85 |
2% |
10% |
|
86 |
2% |
8% |
|
87 |
2% |
6% |
|
88 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
89 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
90 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
91 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
92 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
97 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2–10 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 474
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.55%