Opinion Poll by Gallup, 2–10 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 22.6% 20.2–25.2% 19.6–25.9% 19.0–26.6% 18.0–27.8%
БСП за България 13.2% 16.0% 14.0–18.4% 13.5–19.0% 13.0–19.6% 12.1–20.8%
Демократична България 12.5% 15.8% 13.8–18.2% 13.3–18.8% 12.8–19.4% 11.9–20.5%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 15.4% 13.4–17.7% 12.9–18.4% 12.4–18.9% 11.5–20.1%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 11.8% 10.1–13.9% 9.6–14.5% 9.2–15.0% 8.4–16.1%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 4.9% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.8% 3.3–7.2% 2.8–8.0%
Възраждане 3.0% 3.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.1–4.8% 1.9–5.2% 1.6–5.9%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 2.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.1% 1.0–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 62 55–69 53–71 52–73 49–77
БСП за България 36 44 38–50 37–53 35–54 33–57
Демократична България 34 44 38–50 36–52 35–54 32–56
Има такъв народ 65 42 36–48 35–50 34–52 31–55
Движение за права и свободи 29 32 28–39 26–40 25–41 23–45
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 13 0–17 0–19 0–19 0–22
Възраждане 0 0 0–12 0–13 0–14 0–15
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0–11 0–13

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.5% 99.6%  
50 0.4% 99.1%  
51 0.8% 98.7%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 94%  
55 3% 92%  
56 7% 89%  
57 3% 82%  
58 3% 79%  
59 8% 76%  
60 8% 68%  
61 5% 60%  
62 9% 56% Median
63 5% 46% Last Result
64 9% 41%  
65 4% 32%  
66 7% 28%  
67 7% 21%  
68 2% 14%  
69 3% 12%  
70 3% 9%  
71 1.0% 5%  
72 1.2% 4%  
73 1.4% 3%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.2% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 0.8% 99.3%  
35 1.1% 98%  
36 2% 97% Last Result
37 3% 95%  
38 3% 92%  
39 6% 89%  
40 5% 83%  
41 8% 78%  
42 5% 70%  
43 9% 65%  
44 8% 56% Median
45 9% 48%  
46 6% 39%  
47 11% 33%  
48 4% 22%  
49 6% 18%  
50 2% 12%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.4% 1.3%  
57 0.5% 0.9%  
58 0.1% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.7%  
33 0.6% 99.5%  
34 0.8% 98.9% Last Result
35 1.3% 98%  
36 2% 97%  
37 3% 95%  
38 7% 92%  
39 5% 85%  
40 5% 80%  
41 6% 75%  
42 7% 69%  
43 10% 63%  
44 8% 53% Median
45 13% 45%  
46 6% 32%  
47 6% 25%  
48 4% 19%  
49 4% 15%  
50 2% 10%  
51 2% 8%  
52 2% 6%  
53 1.1% 4%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.5% 99.4%  
33 0.9% 98.9%  
34 2% 98%  
35 2% 96%  
36 4% 94%  
37 4% 90%  
38 5% 86%  
39 9% 81%  
40 8% 72%  
41 8% 64%  
42 6% 56% Median
43 7% 49%  
44 8% 42%  
45 10% 34%  
46 7% 25%  
47 4% 18%  
48 4% 13%  
49 3% 10%  
50 2% 6%  
51 1.5% 5%  
52 1.3% 3%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.7%  
24 1.2% 99.1%  
25 2% 98%  
26 3% 96%  
27 2% 93%  
28 4% 91%  
29 7% 87% Last Result
30 6% 81%  
31 15% 74%  
32 15% 60% Median
33 8% 45%  
34 6% 36%  
35 3% 30%  
36 8% 27%  
37 6% 19%  
38 3% 14%  
39 4% 10%  
40 3% 6%  
41 1.0% 3%  
42 0.6% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.8%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 0% 83%  
2 0% 83%  
3 0% 83%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0% 83%  
8 0% 83%  
9 0% 83%  
10 0.1% 83%  
11 6% 83%  
12 12% 77%  
13 17% 66% Last Result, Median
14 12% 49%  
15 14% 37%  
16 7% 23%  
17 7% 16%  
18 3% 9%  
19 3% 6%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.6% 1.2%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 20%  
2 0% 20%  
3 0% 20%  
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0% 20%  
7 0% 20%  
8 0% 20%  
9 0% 20%  
10 0.2% 20%  
11 8% 20%  
12 6% 12%  
13 3% 6%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.7% 1.2%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0.1% 3%  
11 1.1% 3%  
12 0.9% 1.5%  
13 0.3% 0.5%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 132 94% 123–140 119–142 117–145 113–148
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 119 43% 111–128 108–130 106–132 102–138
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 90 0% 79–97 77–100 75–102 71–105
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 77 0% 69–84 67–87 66–89 62–93

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.2% 99.2%  
115 0.4% 99.1%  
116 0.4% 98.7%  
117 0.9% 98%  
118 1.4% 97%  
119 1.0% 96%  
120 1.1% 95%  
121 2% 94% Majority
122 2% 92%  
123 2% 90%  
124 4% 88%  
125 5% 84%  
126 3% 78%  
127 2% 76%  
128 4% 73%  
129 5% 69%  
130 6% 64%  
131 6% 58% Median
132 7% 52%  
133 5% 45%  
134 7% 40%  
135 6% 33%  
136 4% 27%  
137 3% 23%  
138 4% 20%  
139 5% 17%  
140 2% 11%  
141 4% 9%  
142 1.1% 6%  
143 1.0% 4% Last Result
144 0.8% 3%  
145 1.1% 3%  
146 0.5% 1.4%  
147 0.4% 0.9%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0.1% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.4%  
104 0.4% 99.1%  
105 0.6% 98.7%  
106 0.8% 98%  
107 1.3% 97%  
108 1.3% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 92%  
111 4% 90%  
112 3% 86%  
113 3% 84%  
114 3% 81%  
115 5% 78%  
116 5% 73%  
117 7% 68%  
118 8% 61% Median
119 5% 53%  
120 5% 48%  
121 5% 43% Majority
122 5% 38%  
123 5% 33%  
124 5% 28%  
125 5% 24%  
126 4% 18%  
127 2% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 1.3% 9%  
130 4% 8% Last Result
131 0.6% 4%  
132 2% 4%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.3% 2%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.2% 1.0%  
137 0.3% 0.9%  
138 0.1% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.5%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.1% 99.6%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 0.3% 99.2%  
73 0.8% 98.9%  
74 0.4% 98%  
75 1.1% 98%  
76 0.9% 97%  
77 0.7% 96%  
78 2% 95% Last Result
79 3% 93%  
80 3% 90%  
81 3% 87%  
82 2% 84%  
83 2% 81%  
84 2% 79%  
85 4% 77%  
86 6% 73%  
87 6% 68%  
88 5% 61%  
89 5% 56% Median
90 10% 51%  
91 3% 41%  
92 7% 38%  
93 6% 31%  
94 6% 26%  
95 3% 20%  
96 3% 17%  
97 4% 14%  
98 3% 10%  
99 1.2% 7%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.3% 4%  
102 0.8% 3%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.5% 1.3%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.6%  
63 0.5% 99.4%  
64 0.7% 98.9%  
65 0.7% 98% Last Result
66 1.1% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 2% 95%  
69 3% 93%  
70 3% 90%  
71 3% 87%  
72 7% 84%  
73 5% 77%  
74 6% 72%  
75 7% 66%  
76 6% 58% Median
77 5% 52%  
78 6% 47%  
79 7% 41%  
80 7% 34%  
81 6% 27%  
82 3% 21%  
83 5% 17%  
84 2% 12%  
85 2% 10%  
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.4% 5%  
89 0.7% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.4% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations