Opinion Poll by Тренд, 8–15 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 24.4% 22.2–26.9% 21.5–27.6% 21.0–28.3% 19.9–29.5%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 17.5% 15.6–19.8% 15.0–20.4% 14.6–21.0% 13.7–22.1%
БСП за България 13.2% 16.6% 14.7–18.8% 14.1–19.4% 13.7–20.0% 12.8–21.1%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 9.3% 7.9–11.1% 7.5–11.6% 7.1–12.1% 6.5–13.0%
Продължаваме промяната 0.0% 9.1% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.4% 7.0–11.9% 6.4–12.8%
Демократична България 12.5% 8.6% 7.2–10.3% 6.8–10.8% 6.5–11.3% 5.9–12.2%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 3.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.6–5.4% 2.4–5.7% 2.1–6.4%
Възраждане 3.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–4.8% 1.5–5.4%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 2.2% 1.6–3.3% 1.4–3.6% 1.3–3.9% 1.0–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 68 61–71 58–73 56–75 53–79
Има такъв народ 65 46 42–54 41–56 40–58 37–60
БСП за България 36 46 40–52 38–53 37–55 34–58
Движение за права и свободи 29 26 21–31 20–31 19–32 18–35
Продължаваме промяната 0 26 21–29 20–31 19–32 17–34
Демократична България 34 23 19–28 19–30 18–31 16–33
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 0 0–13 0–14 0–15 0–17
Възраждане 0 0 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–14
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0 0–11

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.2% 99.5%  
54 0.4% 99.3%  
55 0.9% 98.9%  
56 1.1% 98%  
57 0.8% 97%  
58 1.3% 96%  
59 2% 95%  
60 2% 93%  
61 4% 92%  
62 5% 88%  
63 7% 83% Last Result
64 6% 76%  
65 4% 70%  
66 6% 65%  
67 8% 59%  
68 15% 51% Median
69 10% 37%  
70 10% 27%  
71 8% 17%  
72 3% 9%  
73 2% 6%  
74 0.9% 4%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.1% 0.7%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 0.5% 99.4%  
39 0.9% 98.9%  
40 3% 98%  
41 3% 95%  
42 7% 92%  
43 7% 85%  
44 6% 78%  
45 14% 72%  
46 11% 58% Median
47 10% 47%  
48 7% 37%  
49 4% 30%  
50 4% 26%  
51 2% 23%  
52 3% 21%  
53 6% 18%  
54 2% 12%  
55 3% 9%  
56 2% 6%  
57 1.2% 4%  
58 0.7% 3%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.5%  
36 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
37 2% 98%  
38 1.4% 96%  
39 3% 95%  
40 5% 92%  
41 4% 87%  
42 7% 83%  
43 7% 76%  
44 3% 69%  
45 8% 67%  
46 12% 58% Median
47 10% 47%  
48 7% 37%  
49 7% 30%  
50 7% 23%  
51 5% 16%  
52 3% 12%  
53 4% 8%  
54 0.8% 4%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.9%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.8%  
18 1.0% 99.6%  
19 2% 98.6%  
20 2% 97%  
21 6% 95%  
22 12% 89%  
23 5% 77%  
24 8% 72%  
25 13% 64%  
26 8% 50% Median
27 9% 42%  
28 15% 33%  
29 4% 18% Last Result
30 4% 14%  
31 6% 10%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.1% 2%  
34 0.4% 1.3%  
35 0.4% 0.8%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 0.3% 99.7%  
18 1.1% 99.4%  
19 2% 98%  
20 3% 96%  
21 7% 94%  
22 9% 87%  
23 12% 78%  
24 6% 66%  
25 7% 60%  
26 21% 53% Median
27 6% 32%  
28 11% 26%  
29 7% 16%  
30 4% 9%  
31 2% 5%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.6% 1.4%  
34 0.4% 0.8%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.6% 99.6%  
17 1.3% 99.0%  
18 2% 98%  
19 6% 96%  
20 10% 90%  
21 7% 80%  
22 10% 73%  
23 15% 63% Median
24 8% 48%  
25 10% 39%  
26 12% 29%  
27 6% 18%  
28 3% 11%  
29 3% 9%  
30 2% 5%  
31 1.2% 3%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.7%  
34 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 0% 32%  
4 0% 32%  
5 0% 32%  
6 0% 32%  
7 0% 32%  
8 0% 32%  
9 0% 32%  
10 0.1% 32%  
11 15% 32%  
12 7% 17%  
13 3% 10% Last Result
14 3% 7%  
15 2% 5%  
16 1.3% 2%  
17 0.7% 0.9%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 0% 13%  
8 0% 13%  
9 0% 13%  
10 0.5% 13%  
11 6% 12%  
12 4% 7%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.7% 1.0%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.3%  
2 0% 1.3%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 0% 1.3%  
5 0% 1.3%  
6 0% 1.3%  
7 0% 1.3%  
8 0% 1.3%  
9 0% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 1.3%  
11 0.7% 1.2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 123 65% 116–130 113–132 110–134 107–139
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 130 119 41% 110–127 108–130 106–131 102–135
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 75 0% 67–83 66–86 63–87 60–92
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 71 0% 64–78 63–81 60–82 57–86

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.3% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.5%  
108 0.3% 99.4%  
109 0.7% 99.1%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 0.8% 97%  
112 0.9% 96%  
113 1.0% 96%  
114 1.4% 95%  
115 2% 93%  
116 3% 91%  
117 4% 88%  
118 4% 84% Median
119 7% 79%  
120 7% 72%  
121 6% 65% Majority
122 5% 59%  
123 7% 54%  
124 8% 47%  
125 8% 38%  
126 7% 30%  
127 3% 24%  
128 6% 21%  
129 3% 15%  
130 4% 12%  
131 2% 8%  
132 2% 6%  
133 1.2% 4%  
134 1.0% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.2% 1.1%  
138 0.4% 0.9%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.2% 0.4%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1% Last Result
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.1% 99.5%  
103 0.3% 99.4%  
104 0.4% 99.1%  
105 0.7% 98.8%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 1.3% 97%  
108 3% 96%  
109 2% 93%  
110 2% 90%  
111 3% 89%  
112 3% 86%  
113 4% 82%  
114 5% 78%  
115 4% 74%  
116 4% 70%  
117 7% 66%  
118 5% 58% Median
119 5% 53%  
120 7% 48%  
121 5% 41% Majority
122 3% 35%  
123 6% 33%  
124 5% 27%  
125 5% 21%  
126 5% 16%  
127 2% 11%  
128 2% 10%  
129 1.5% 7%  
130 3% 6% Last Result
131 0.8% 3%  
132 1.0% 2%  
133 0.7% 1.4%  
134 0.1% 0.7%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.7%  
61 0.1% 99.4%  
62 0.2% 99.3%  
63 2% 99.1%  
64 0.8% 97%  
65 0.4% 96%  
66 1.4% 96%  
67 7% 94%  
68 1.1% 87%  
69 0.2% 86%  
70 7% 86%  
71 8% 79%  
72 1.3% 70% Median
73 4% 69%  
74 12% 65%  
75 7% 53%  
76 1.3% 47%  
77 1.0% 45%  
78 15% 44% Last Result
79 3% 30%  
80 1.0% 26%  
81 6% 25%  
82 8% 19%  
83 2% 12%  
84 0.6% 10%  
85 2% 9%  
86 4% 8%  
87 1.4% 4%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.3%  
91 0.1% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.1% 99.5%  
59 0.7% 99.4%  
60 1.4% 98.7%  
61 0.7% 97%  
62 0.6% 97%  
63 5% 96%  
64 2% 91%  
65 2% 89% Last Result
66 3% 88%  
67 11% 85%  
68 3% 74%  
69 0.9% 71%  
70 10% 70%  
71 13% 61%  
72 2% 48% Median
73 4% 46%  
74 12% 41%  
75 7% 29%  
76 0.8% 22%  
77 0.5% 21%  
78 13% 21%  
79 0.7% 8%  
80 0.2% 7%  
81 3% 7%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.2% 1.2%  
84 0% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 1.0%  
86 0.5% 0.6%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations