Opinion Poll by Gallup, 21–26 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | 23.2% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.2% | 19.4–23.7% | 19.0–24.1% | 18.3–24.9% | 
| Продължаваме промяната | 0.0% | 15.2% | 13.8–16.8% | 13.5–17.2% | 13.1–17.6% | 12.5–18.3% | 
| БСП за България | 13.2% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% | 
| Има такъв народ | 23.8% | 12.3% | 11.0–13.7% | 10.7–14.1% | 10.4–14.4% | 9.8–15.1% | 
| Демократична България | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.8–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% | 
| Движение за права и свободи | 10.6% | 11.4% | 10.2–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.5–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% | 
| Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% | 
| Възраждане | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% | 
| ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% | 
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | 63 | 58 | 53–63 | 51–64 | 51–65 | 48–67 | 
| Продължаваме промяната | 0 | 41 | 37–46 | 36–47 | 35–47 | 33–50 | 
| БСП за България | 36 | 36 | 32–41 | 31–42 | 31–42 | 29–44 | 
| Има такъв народ | 65 | 33 | 30–37 | 28–39 | 28–39 | 26–41 | 
| Демократична България | 34 | 32 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 27–39 | 26–41 | 
| Движение за права и свободи | 29 | 31 | 27–35 | 26–36 | 25–36 | 24–38 | 
| Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 13 | 11 | 0–13 | 0–14 | 0–14 | 0–16 | 
| Възраждане | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–11 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 
| ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 
Граждани за европейско развитие на България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 95% | |
| 53 | 6% | 92% | |
| 54 | 5% | 86% | |
| 55 | 8% | 81% | |
| 56 | 8% | 72% | |
| 57 | 8% | 64% | |
| 58 | 8% | 57% | Median | 
| 59 | 12% | 49% | |
| 60 | 10% | 37% | |
| 61 | 10% | 27% | |
| 62 | 5% | 18% | |
| 63 | 3% | 13% | Last Result | 
| 64 | 7% | 10% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | 
Продължаваме промяната
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result | 
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98% | |
| 36 | 3% | 96% | |
| 37 | 9% | 93% | |
| 38 | 4% | 84% | |
| 39 | 6% | 80% | |
| 40 | 12% | 73% | |
| 41 | 15% | 61% | Median | 
| 42 | 14% | 46% | |
| 43 | 5% | 32% | |
| 44 | 11% | 27% | |
| 45 | 6% | 17% | |
| 46 | 5% | 11% | |
| 47 | 4% | 6% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | 
БСП за България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 31 | 5% | 98% | |
| 32 | 4% | 93% | |
| 33 | 9% | 89% | |
| 34 | 11% | 81% | |
| 35 | 12% | 70% | |
| 36 | 8% | 58% | Last Result, Median | 
| 37 | 15% | 50% | |
| 38 | 9% | 35% | |
| 39 | 9% | 25% | |
| 40 | 6% | 17% | |
| 41 | 4% | 11% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | 
Има такъв народ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 4% | 95% | |
| 30 | 10% | 91% | |
| 31 | 14% | 81% | |
| 32 | 11% | 67% | |
| 33 | 15% | 56% | Median | 
| 34 | 12% | 40% | |
| 35 | 7% | 28% | |
| 36 | 8% | 21% | |
| 37 | 5% | 13% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
Демократична България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 96% | |
| 29 | 6% | 92% | |
| 30 | 8% | 86% | |
| 31 | 18% | 78% | |
| 32 | 12% | 60% | Median | 
| 33 | 15% | 48% | |
| 34 | 9% | 33% | Last Result | 
| 35 | 10% | 25% | |
| 36 | 5% | 15% | |
| 37 | 5% | 10% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | 
Движение за права и свободи
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 97% | |
| 27 | 8% | 94% | |
| 28 | 9% | 87% | |
| 29 | 11% | 78% | Last Result | 
| 30 | 10% | 67% | |
| 31 | 14% | 57% | Median | 
| 32 | 17% | 43% | |
| 33 | 8% | 26% | |
| 34 | 7% | 18% | |
| 35 | 5% | 11% | |
| 36 | 3% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | 
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 47% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 53% | |
| 2 | 0% | 53% | |
| 3 | 0% | 53% | |
| 4 | 0% | 53% | |
| 5 | 0% | 53% | |
| 6 | 0% | 53% | |
| 7 | 0% | 53% | |
| 8 | 0% | 53% | |
| 9 | 0% | 53% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 53% | |
| 11 | 13% | 52% | Median | 
| 12 | 23% | 39% | |
| 13 | 10% | 16% | Last Result | 
| 14 | 3% | 6% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | 
Възраждане
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 87% | 100% | Last Result, Median | 
| 1 | 0% | 13% | |
| 2 | 0% | 13% | |
| 3 | 0% | 13% | |
| 4 | 0% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0% | 13% | |
| 6 | 0% | 13% | |
| 7 | 0% | 13% | |
| 8 | 0% | 13% | |
| 9 | 0% | 13% | |
| 10 | 2% | 13% | |
| 11 | 6% | 11% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | 
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median | 
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | 
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 143 | 107 | 0.5% | 100–114 | 98–115 | 96–117 | 92–120 | 
| БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи | 130 | 100 | 0% | 94–108 | 92–109 | 91–110 | 88–113 | 
| БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 78 | 74 | 0% | 66–81 | 64–82 | 63–84 | 60–87 | 
| БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи | 65 | 67 | 0% | 62–73 | 61–74 | 59–75 | 57–78 | 
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 95 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 97 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 98 | 2% | 95% | |
| 99 | 3% | 94% | |
| 100 | 3% | 91% | |
| 101 | 7% | 88% | |
| 102 | 6% | 82% | |
| 103 | 4% | 75% | |
| 104 | 7% | 71% | |
| 105 | 5% | 65% | |
| 106 | 4% | 60% | |
| 107 | 9% | 56% | |
| 108 | 7% | 48% | |
| 109 | 10% | 40% | |
| 110 | 6% | 30% | |
| 111 | 5% | 23% | Median | 
| 112 | 5% | 18% | |
| 113 | 4% | 14% | |
| 114 | 2% | 10% | |
| 115 | 4% | 8% | |
| 116 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 119 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority | 
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 89 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 90 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 91 | 2% | 98% | |
| 92 | 2% | 96% | |
| 93 | 4% | 94% | |
| 94 | 5% | 91% | |
| 95 | 3% | 86% | |
| 96 | 5% | 83% | |
| 97 | 10% | 78% | |
| 98 | 6% | 68% | |
| 99 | 7% | 62% | |
| 100 | 7% | 55% | Median | 
| 101 | 9% | 48% | |
| 102 | 8% | 39% | |
| 103 | 6% | 31% | |
| 104 | 5% | 25% | |
| 105 | 3% | 19% | |
| 106 | 2% | 17% | |
| 107 | 4% | 14% | |
| 108 | 5% | 10% | |
| 109 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 110 | 3% | 5% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 112 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 117 | 0% | 0% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% | |
| 120 | 0% | 0% | |
| 121 | 0% | 0% | Majority | 
| 122 | 0% | 0% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | Last Result | 
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 64 | 4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 66 | 3% | 92% | |
| 67 | 2% | 88% | |
| 68 | 8% | 86% | |
| 69 | 6% | 78% | |
| 70 | 4% | 72% | |
| 71 | 6% | 68% | |
| 72 | 3% | 62% | |
| 73 | 5% | 59% | |
| 74 | 7% | 54% | |
| 75 | 5% | 46% | |
| 76 | 6% | 42% | |
| 77 | 4% | 35% | |
| 78 | 9% | 32% | Last Result, Median | 
| 79 | 8% | 22% | |
| 80 | 4% | 14% | |
| 81 | 3% | 11% | |
| 82 | 3% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 5% | |
| 84 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | 
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks | 
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 61 | 4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 5% | 91% | |
| 63 | 6% | 86% | |
| 64 | 8% | 81% | |
| 65 | 5% | 73% | Last Result | 
| 66 | 12% | 68% | |
| 67 | 9% | 57% | Median | 
| 68 | 11% | 47% | |
| 69 | 9% | 37% | |
| 70 | 6% | 27% | |
| 71 | 6% | 21% | |
| 72 | 3% | 14% | |
| 73 | 3% | 11% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | 
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Gallup
 - Commissioner(s): —
 - Fieldwork period: 21–26 September 2021
 
Calculations
- Sample size: 1012
 - Simulations done: 1,048,576
 - Error estimate: 2.39%