Opinion Poll by Алфа рисърч, 4–10 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 23.2% 21.0–25.6% 20.3–26.3% 19.8–26.9% 18.8–28.2%
БСП за България 13.2% 16.8% 14.9–19.1% 14.3–19.7% 13.9–20.2% 13.0–21.3%
Продължаваме промяната 0.0% 15.9% 14.0–18.1% 13.5–18.7% 13.0–19.2% 12.2–20.3%
Демократична България 12.5% 10.8% 9.3–12.8% 8.8–13.3% 8.5–13.8% 7.8–14.7%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 10.5% 8.9–12.3% 8.5–12.9% 8.2–13.4% 7.5–14.3%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 9.3% 7.9–11.2% 7.5–11.7% 7.2–12.1% 6.5–13.0%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 2.0–5.0% 1.7–5.7%
Възраждане 3.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–4.8% 1.5–5.4%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 2.1% 1.5–3.1% 1.3–3.4% 1.2–3.6% 0.9–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 63 57–69 55–70 53–72 50–75
БСП за България 36 46 40–51 39–54 37–55 35–57
Продължаваме промяната 0 43 38–48 36–50 35–52 33–55
Демократична България 34 29 25–35 24–36 23–38 21–40
Има такъв народ 65 28 24–33 23–35 22–36 20–39
Движение за права и свободи 29 25 22–30 20–31 19–32 18–35
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 0 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–15
Възраждане 0 0 0–11 0–12 0–13 0–14
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0 0–11

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.2%  
52 0.6% 98.8%  
53 1.2% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 2% 95%  
56 3% 94%  
57 3% 91%  
58 6% 88%  
59 4% 82%  
60 3% 78%  
61 4% 75%  
62 18% 71%  
63 4% 54% Last Result, Median
64 3% 50%  
65 5% 46%  
66 21% 41%  
67 4% 20%  
68 2% 16%  
69 8% 15%  
70 2% 7%  
71 2% 5%  
72 0.3% 3%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.4%  
75 0.6% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.4% 99.7%  
36 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
37 2% 98.6%  
38 2% 97%  
39 2% 95%  
40 6% 93%  
41 5% 87%  
42 6% 82%  
43 6% 77%  
44 5% 71%  
45 8% 67%  
46 21% 59% Median
47 10% 38%  
48 8% 28%  
49 5% 20%  
50 3% 15%  
51 2% 12%  
52 2% 9%  
53 2% 8%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.4%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 0.3% 99.6%  
34 0.7% 99.3%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 2% 97%  
37 3% 94%  
38 3% 91%  
39 6% 88%  
40 7% 82%  
41 8% 75%  
42 9% 67%  
43 8% 58% Median
44 9% 50%  
45 9% 41%  
46 14% 32%  
47 4% 18%  
48 5% 14%  
49 3% 10%  
50 2% 7%  
51 1.5% 5%  
52 1.5% 4%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.3% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.6%  
22 1.1% 99.1%  
23 2% 98%  
24 3% 96%  
25 5% 93%  
26 7% 88%  
27 9% 81%  
28 9% 72%  
29 14% 63% Median
30 10% 49%  
31 7% 39%  
32 9% 31%  
33 4% 22%  
34 5% 18% Last Result
35 6% 13%  
36 2% 6%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 1.3%  
40 0.3% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.7%  
21 1.0% 99.3%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 96%  
24 4% 92%  
25 6% 87%  
26 9% 82%  
27 7% 73%  
28 15% 65% Median
29 8% 50%  
30 12% 42%  
31 6% 30%  
32 10% 24%  
33 6% 14%  
34 4% 9%  
35 2% 5%  
36 2% 4%  
37 0.8% 2%  
38 0.8% 1.4%  
39 0.2% 0.5%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.8%  
18 1.0% 99.6%  
19 2% 98.6%  
20 2% 96%  
21 4% 94%  
22 9% 90%  
23 9% 81%  
24 12% 71%  
25 12% 59% Median
26 16% 47%  
27 8% 32%  
28 4% 23%  
29 6% 19% Last Result
30 7% 13%  
31 2% 6%  
32 2% 4%  
33 0.7% 2%  
34 0.5% 1.5%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Median
1 0% 14%  
2 0% 14%  
3 0% 14%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 0% 14%  
8 0% 14%  
9 0% 14%  
10 0.1% 14%  
11 6% 14%  
12 4% 9%  
13 3% 5% Last Result
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.7%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 84% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 16%  
2 0% 16%  
3 0% 16%  
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 0% 16%  
8 0% 16%  
9 0% 16%  
10 0.2% 16%  
11 7% 16%  
12 5% 9%  
13 2% 4%  
14 1.0% 1.4%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.9%  
2 0% 0.9%  
3 0% 0.9%  
4 0% 0.9%  
5 0% 0.9%  
6 0% 0.9%  
7 0% 0.9%  
8 0% 0.9%  
9 0% 0.9%  
10 0% 0.9%  
11 0.5% 0.8%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 101 0.2% 94–109 92–112 90–115 87–119
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 100 0% 92–107 90–109 88–111 85–116
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 72 0% 66–81 64–84 62–86 60–90
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 71 0% 64–78 63–80 61–82 59–86

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.1% 99.6%  
88 1.2% 99.5%  
89 0.3% 98%  
90 0.8% 98%  
91 1.1% 97%  
92 2% 96%  
93 3% 94%  
94 3% 92%  
95 3% 89%  
96 4% 86%  
97 4% 82%  
98 4% 79%  
99 12% 74% Median
100 5% 62%  
101 8% 58%  
102 10% 50%  
103 8% 39%  
104 6% 31%  
105 4% 25%  
106 2% 21%  
107 5% 19%  
108 2% 14%  
109 3% 12%  
110 2% 10%  
111 2% 7%  
112 1.0% 5%  
113 0.9% 4%  
114 0.5% 3%  
115 0.7% 3%  
116 1.0% 2%  
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.2% 0.8%  
119 0.1% 0.6%  
120 0.2% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.2% Majority
122 0.1% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.3%  
87 0.4% 99.0%  
88 2% 98.6%  
89 0.6% 97%  
90 2% 96%  
91 3% 95%  
92 2% 92%  
93 4% 89%  
94 4% 86%  
95 4% 82%  
96 4% 78%  
97 4% 73%  
98 5% 69%  
99 13% 64% Median
100 5% 52%  
101 7% 46%  
102 9% 39%  
103 8% 30%  
104 5% 22%  
105 3% 16%  
106 1.3% 13%  
107 3% 12%  
108 2% 9%  
109 2% 7%  
110 1.4% 5%  
111 1.1% 4%  
112 0.4% 2%  
113 0.6% 2%  
114 0.3% 1.4%  
115 0.5% 1.1%  
116 0.2% 0.6%  
117 0.2% 0.4%  
118 0.1% 0.2%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  
121 0% 0% Majority
122 0% 0%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 1.3% 99.3%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 2% 97%  
64 2% 95%  
65 2% 94%  
66 3% 92%  
67 4% 88%  
68 5% 85%  
69 8% 79%  
70 10% 71%  
71 11% 61% Median
72 4% 50%  
73 4% 46%  
74 6% 42%  
75 7% 36%  
76 6% 29%  
77 3% 23%  
78 4% 20% Last Result
79 2% 16%  
80 3% 14%  
81 2% 12%  
82 2% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.9% 4%  
86 0.6% 3%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.4%  
89 0.3% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.4% 99.5%  
60 0.4% 99.1%  
61 2% 98.7%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 3% 93%  
65 2% 90% Last Result
66 5% 87%  
67 5% 83%  
68 6% 78%  
69 9% 72%  
70 11% 63%  
71 13% 52% Median
72 5% 40%  
73 5% 35%  
74 6% 30%  
75 6% 24%  
76 5% 18%  
77 3% 13%  
78 3% 11%  
79 1.4% 8%  
80 2% 6%  
81 0.9% 4%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.8%  
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations