Opinion Poll by Център за анализи и маркетинг, 6–10 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 25.5% 23.6–27.5% 23.1–28.1% 22.6–28.6% 21.7–29.6%
БСП за България 13.2% 16.6% 15.0–18.4% 14.6–18.9% 14.2–19.4% 13.5–20.2%
Продължаваме промяната 0.0% 13.4% 12.0–15.1% 11.6–15.5% 11.2–16.0% 10.6–16.8%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 12.3% 10.9–13.9% 10.6–14.4% 10.2–14.8% 9.6–15.6%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 11.6% 10.2–13.1% 9.9–13.6% 9.6–14.0% 8.9–14.8%
Демократична България 12.5% 10.8% 9.5–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–13.9%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%
Възраждане 3.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.3%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 67 62–72 60–74 59–75 57–77
БСП за България 36 44 39–49 39–49 37–50 35–53
Продължаваме промяната 0 35 31–39 31–40 30–41 28–44
Има такъв народ 65 32 28–37 27–38 27–39 25–41
Движение за права и свободи 29 31 27–35 26–36 25–37 23–39
Демократична България 34 29 25–32 24–34 23–35 22–37
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 0 0–11 0–12 0–12 0–13
Възраждане 0 0 0 0 0 0
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 99.1%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 2% 93%  
62 4% 90%  
63 4% 86% Last Result
64 7% 82%  
65 9% 75%  
66 10% 66%  
67 11% 56% Median
68 14% 45%  
69 10% 31%  
70 5% 21%  
71 4% 16%  
72 4% 12%  
73 2% 8%  
74 3% 6%  
75 1.4% 4%  
76 1.4% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.2% 99.4% Last Result
37 1.1% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 6% 95%  
40 6% 90%  
41 8% 84%  
42 9% 76%  
43 12% 67%  
44 9% 55% Median
45 9% 46%  
46 14% 37%  
47 7% 22%  
48 5% 15%  
49 6% 11%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.6% 99.5%  
29 1.0% 99.0%  
30 3% 98%  
31 8% 95%  
32 11% 87%  
33 10% 76%  
34 10% 66%  
35 10% 56% Median
36 5% 46%  
37 12% 41%  
38 11% 30%  
39 10% 19%  
40 5% 9%  
41 2% 4%  
42 0.9% 2%  
43 0.5% 2%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.7%  
26 1.5% 99.4%  
27 3% 98%  
28 6% 95%  
29 7% 89%  
30 11% 83%  
31 7% 72%  
32 16% 64% Median
33 10% 48%  
34 12% 39%  
35 7% 27%  
36 6% 20%  
37 8% 13%  
38 3% 6%  
39 1.5% 3%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.8%  
24 1.4% 99.3%  
25 2% 98%  
26 6% 96%  
27 6% 90%  
28 12% 84%  
29 12% 72% Last Result
30 10% 60%  
31 14% 50% Median
32 10% 36%  
33 9% 27%  
34 5% 18%  
35 5% 13%  
36 3% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 1.0% 99.6%  
23 2% 98.6%  
24 4% 97%  
25 7% 93%  
26 11% 86%  
27 13% 75%  
28 11% 62%  
29 11% 51% Median
30 12% 40%  
31 12% 28%  
32 7% 17%  
33 4% 10%  
34 3% 6% Last Result
35 1.5% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 0% 17%  
8 0% 17%  
9 0% 17%  
10 1.1% 17%  
11 10% 16%  
12 5% 6%  
13 1.1% 2% Last Result
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 109 1.1% 103–115 101–117 100–118 97–122
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 108 0.2% 101–114 100–115 98–116 94–120
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 77 0% 70–83 68–85 67–87 65–91
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 75 0% 69–80 67–82 66–83 63–86

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.6% 99.6%  
98 0.6% 99.0%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 1.4% 98%  
101 3% 96%  
102 3% 93%  
103 7% 90%  
104 4% 83%  
105 4% 80%  
106 4% 76%  
107 5% 72% Median
108 8% 67%  
109 15% 59%  
110 9% 45%  
111 4% 35%  
112 6% 31%  
113 4% 25%  
114 5% 21%  
115 7% 16%  
116 2% 10%  
117 4% 8%  
118 2% 4%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.6% 2%  
121 0.5% 1.1% Majority
122 0.3% 0.6%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.6% 99.9%  
95 0.5% 99.3%  
96 0.3% 98.8%  
97 0.7% 98%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 0.8% 97%  
100 4% 96%  
101 7% 91%  
102 3% 85%  
103 7% 81%  
104 5% 74%  
105 4% 69%  
106 8% 65%  
107 5% 57% Median
108 8% 52%  
109 14% 44%  
110 9% 30%  
111 2% 21%  
112 4% 19%  
113 2% 15%  
114 4% 13%  
115 6% 9%  
116 1.2% 3%  
117 0.9% 2%  
118 0.4% 1.2%  
119 0.2% 0.8%  
120 0.3% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.2% Majority
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  
124 0% 0%  
125 0% 0%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 1.2% 99.3%  
67 0.9% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 93%  
71 5% 90%  
72 6% 85%  
73 9% 79%  
74 5% 70%  
75 10% 65% Median
76 4% 55%  
77 9% 50%  
78 8% 42% Last Result
79 9% 34%  
80 5% 25%  
81 5% 20%  
82 2% 16%  
83 5% 14%  
84 2% 9%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.5% 5%  
87 1.0% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.3%  
90 0.2% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 3% 90%  
70 4% 87%  
71 7% 83%  
72 8% 76%  
73 10% 68%  
74 6% 58%  
75 11% 52% Median
76 5% 41%  
77 9% 36%  
78 6% 27%  
79 8% 21%  
80 4% 13%  
81 3% 8%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.0% 3%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.2% 1.0%  
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations