Opinion Poll by Exacta, 6–12 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | 23.2% | 23.3% | 21.0–25.9% | 20.4–26.6% | 19.8–27.2% | 18.8–28.5% |
| Продължаваме промяната | 0.0% | 15.3% | 13.4–17.6% | 12.9–18.2% | 12.5–18.8% | 11.6–19.9% |
| Има такъв народ | 23.8% | 15.1% | 13.2–17.4% | 12.7–18.0% | 12.3–18.5% | 11.4–19.7% |
| БСП за България | 13.2% | 14.9% | 13.1–17.2% | 12.5–17.8% | 12.1–18.3% | 11.2–19.4% |
| Демократична България | 12.5% | 10.2% | 8.6–12.1% | 8.2–12.6% | 7.8–13.1% | 7.1–14.1% |
| Движение за права и свободи | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.7–11.0% | 7.3–11.6% | 6.9–12.0% | 6.3–13.0% |
| Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.5–4.4% | 1.2–5.0% |
| ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% | 1.4–4.1% | 1.1–4.8% |
| Възраждане | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.1–3.1% | 0.9–3.4% | 0.7–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Граждани за европейско развитие на България | 63 | 64 | 57–70 | 55–71 | 54–73 | 51–76 |
| Продължаваме промяната | 0 | 40 | 36–47 | 35–49 | 33–51 | 31–54 |
| Има такъв народ | 65 | 42 | 36–46 | 34–48 | 33–50 | 31–53 |
| БСП за България | 36 | 40 | 35–46 | 34–48 | 33–49 | 30–52 |
| Демократична България | 34 | 27 | 23–33 | 22–34 | 21–35 | 19–37 |
| Движение за права и свободи | 29 | 24 | 20–30 | 19–31 | 19–32 | 17–34 |
| Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–13 |
| ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–12 |
| Възраждане | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Граждани за европейско развитие на България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 55 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 56 | 4% | 95% | |
| 57 | 3% | 91% | |
| 58 | 5% | 88% | |
| 59 | 5% | 83% | |
| 60 | 4% | 78% | |
| 61 | 9% | 74% | |
| 62 | 4% | 65% | |
| 63 | 7% | 61% | Last Result |
| 64 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 65 | 5% | 39% | |
| 66 | 9% | 33% | |
| 67 | 4% | 24% | |
| 68 | 7% | 21% | |
| 69 | 4% | 14% | |
| 70 | 3% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Продължаваме промяната
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 2% | 97% | |
| 35 | 3% | 95% | |
| 36 | 4% | 92% | |
| 37 | 6% | 88% | |
| 38 | 16% | 82% | |
| 39 | 11% | 67% | |
| 40 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 41 | 5% | 50% | |
| 42 | 7% | 44% | |
| 43 | 7% | 37% | |
| 44 | 6% | 30% | |
| 45 | 8% | 24% | |
| 46 | 4% | 16% | |
| 47 | 3% | 13% | |
| 48 | 2% | 10% | |
| 49 | 3% | 7% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Има такъв народ
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 2% | 96% | |
| 35 | 2% | 94% | |
| 36 | 3% | 92% | |
| 37 | 9% | 89% | |
| 38 | 6% | 80% | |
| 39 | 8% | 73% | |
| 40 | 8% | 65% | |
| 41 | 6% | 57% | |
| 42 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 43 | 7% | 44% | |
| 44 | 18% | 37% | |
| 45 | 5% | 18% | |
| 46 | 4% | 13% | |
| 47 | 3% | 9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 6% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
БСП за България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 3% | 96% | |
| 35 | 3% | 93% | |
| 36 | 6% | 89% | Last Result |
| 37 | 7% | 84% | |
| 38 | 8% | 76% | |
| 39 | 6% | 68% | |
| 40 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 41 | 8% | 50% | |
| 42 | 5% | 41% | |
| 43 | 16% | 37% | |
| 44 | 6% | 21% | |
| 45 | 2% | 14% | |
| 46 | 4% | 12% | |
| 47 | 3% | 8% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Демократична България
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 22 | 3% | 97% | |
| 23 | 5% | 94% | |
| 24 | 8% | 89% | |
| 25 | 11% | 81% | |
| 26 | 8% | 70% | |
| 27 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 44% | |
| 29 | 6% | 36% | |
| 30 | 5% | 29% | |
| 31 | 7% | 25% | |
| 32 | 6% | 17% | |
| 33 | 5% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Движение за права и свободи
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 5% | 98% | |
| 20 | 4% | 94% | |
| 21 | 6% | 90% | |
| 22 | 13% | 84% | |
| 23 | 5% | 71% | |
| 24 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 6% | 47% | |
| 26 | 6% | 41% | |
| 27 | 10% | 34% | |
| 28 | 7% | 25% | |
| 29 | 6% | 17% | Last Result |
| 30 | 3% | 11% | |
| 31 | 4% | 8% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Възраждане
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 143 | 107 | 1.3% | 100–115 | 98–117 | 96–119 | 92–122 |
| Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи | 130 | 107 | 0.8% | 100–114 | 97–116 | 95–118 | 92–121 |
| БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! | 78 | 66 | 0% | 60–73 | 57–75 | 56–77 | 53–81 |
| БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи | 65 | 66 | 0% | 59–72 | 57–74 | 56–76 | 53–79 |
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 96 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 97 | 2% | 97% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 99 | 2% | 94% | |
| 100 | 3% | 92% | |
| 101 | 3% | 89% | |
| 102 | 4% | 85% | |
| 103 | 5% | 81% | |
| 104 | 5% | 76% | |
| 105 | 9% | 70% | |
| 106 | 7% | 61% | Median |
| 107 | 5% | 54% | |
| 108 | 6% | 49% | |
| 109 | 5% | 42% | |
| 110 | 5% | 38% | |
| 111 | 13% | 33% | |
| 112 | 4% | 20% | |
| 113 | 4% | 17% | |
| 114 | 3% | 13% | |
| 115 | 3% | 10% | |
| 116 | 2% | 7% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 122 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 123 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | |
| 139 | 0% | 0% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Има такъв народ – БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 95 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 96 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 2% | 96% | |
| 98 | 2% | 94% | |
| 99 | 2% | 92% | |
| 100 | 4% | 90% | |
| 101 | 3% | 87% | |
| 102 | 5% | 83% | |
| 103 | 5% | 79% | |
| 104 | 5% | 73% | |
| 105 | 9% | 68% | |
| 106 | 7% | 58% | Median |
| 107 | 5% | 51% | |
| 108 | 6% | 46% | |
| 109 | 5% | 40% | |
| 110 | 5% | 35% | |
| 111 | 12% | 31% | |
| 112 | 3% | 18% | |
| 113 | 3% | 15% | |
| 114 | 3% | 11% | |
| 115 | 3% | 9% | |
| 116 | 2% | 6% | |
| 117 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 122 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 57 | 2% | 97% | |
| 58 | 2% | 95% | |
| 59 | 3% | 93% | |
| 60 | 6% | 90% | |
| 61 | 6% | 85% | |
| 62 | 5% | 79% | |
| 63 | 5% | 74% | |
| 64 | 9% | 69% | Median |
| 65 | 6% | 61% | |
| 66 | 6% | 55% | |
| 67 | 13% | 50% | |
| 68 | 8% | 36% | |
| 69 | 5% | 28% | |
| 70 | 6% | 24% | |
| 71 | 5% | 18% | |
| 72 | 2% | 13% | |
| 73 | 2% | 10% | |
| 74 | 2% | 8% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 2% | Last Result |
| 79 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | |
| 58 | 2% | 94% | |
| 59 | 3% | 92% | |
| 60 | 6% | 89% | |
| 61 | 6% | 83% | |
| 62 | 5% | 77% | |
| 63 | 5% | 72% | |
| 64 | 9% | 67% | Median |
| 65 | 6% | 58% | Last Result |
| 66 | 6% | 52% | |
| 67 | 13% | 47% | |
| 68 | 8% | 33% | |
| 69 | 5% | 26% | |
| 70 | 6% | 21% | |
| 71 | 5% | 15% | |
| 72 | 2% | 10% | |
| 73 | 2% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 6% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Exacta
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–12 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 502
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.09%