Opinion Poll by Sova Harris for Dir.bg, 5–12 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 24.6% 22.3–27.0% 21.7–27.7% 21.2–28.3% 20.1–29.5%
БСП за България 13.2% 19.4% 17.3–21.6% 16.8–22.3% 16.3–22.8% 15.4–24.0%
Продължаваме промяната 0.0% 14.9% 13.1–17.0% 12.6–17.6% 12.2–18.1% 11.4–19.1%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 14.5% 12.8–16.6% 12.3–17.2% 11.8–17.7% 11.0–18.7%
Демократична България 12.5% 9.1% 7.7–10.9% 7.3–11.4% 7.0–11.8% 6.4–12.7%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 9.0% 7.6–10.7% 7.2–11.2% 6.9–11.6% 6.2–12.5%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.1–6.0% 2.9–6.3% 2.5–7.0%
Възраждане 3.0% 2.0% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.1–3.5% 0.9–4.0%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 1.8% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–3.0% 1.0–3.3% 0.8–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 61 55–68 53–70 53–71 50–74
БСП за България 36 48 43–55 42–56 41–57 39–60
Продължаваме промяната 0 38 33–43 32–45 31–46 29–49
Има такъв народ 65 37 33–41 31–42 30–44 28–47
Демократична България 34 23 20–27 18–28 18–30 16–32
Движение за права и свободи 29 23 19–27 18–28 17–29 16–32
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 11 0–14 0–15 0–16 0–17
Възраждане 0 0 0 0 0 0–10
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0 0

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.3%  
52 0.7% 99.2%  
53 4% 98%  
54 4% 95%  
55 1.4% 91%  
56 1.3% 90%  
57 3% 88%  
58 5% 86%  
59 8% 80%  
60 11% 73%  
61 14% 62% Median
62 6% 49%  
63 5% 43% Last Result
64 10% 37%  
65 12% 28%  
66 2% 16%  
67 2% 13%  
68 3% 12%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100% Last Result
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.5%  
40 0.8% 98.7%  
41 2% 98%  
42 4% 96%  
43 5% 92%  
44 3% 87%  
45 3% 84%  
46 7% 81%  
47 6% 74%  
48 23% 69% Median
49 8% 46%  
50 7% 38%  
51 6% 31%  
52 4% 25%  
53 3% 20%  
54 5% 18%  
55 5% 13%  
56 5% 8%  
57 0.7% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.7% 99.5%  
30 1.0% 98.9%  
31 1.4% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 7% 92%  
34 8% 85%  
35 5% 78%  
36 9% 72%  
37 6% 64%  
38 10% 57% Median
39 9% 47%  
40 5% 38%  
41 8% 33%  
42 13% 25%  
43 4% 13%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.2% 3%  
47 0.3% 2%  
48 0.7% 1.4%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.2% 99.8%  
28 0.5% 99.5%  
29 0.8% 99.0%  
30 2% 98%  
31 2% 97%  
32 3% 94%  
33 4% 91%  
34 10% 88%  
35 5% 78%  
36 16% 73%  
37 9% 57% Median
38 15% 48%  
39 8% 33%  
40 8% 25%  
41 8% 16%  
42 4% 9%  
43 1.5% 4%  
44 0.8% 3%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.5% 1.3%  
47 0.4% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.4% 99.8%  
17 1.1% 99.3%  
18 4% 98%  
19 3% 95%  
20 8% 92%  
21 12% 83%  
22 8% 71%  
23 16% 63% Median
24 9% 47%  
25 15% 39%  
26 10% 24%  
27 7% 14%  
28 2% 7%  
29 2% 5%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 1.3%  
32 0.3% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.4%  
34 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.5%  
17 2% 98.7%  
18 4% 97%  
19 5% 93%  
20 7% 88%  
21 5% 80%  
22 13% 75%  
23 18% 62% Median
24 18% 44%  
25 7% 26%  
26 5% 19%  
27 8% 13%  
28 1.2% 6%  
29 2% 4% Last Result
30 1.2% 2%  
31 0.4% 1.1%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100%  
1 0% 60%  
2 0% 60%  
3 0% 60%  
4 0% 60%  
5 0% 60%  
6 0% 60%  
7 0% 60%  
8 0% 60%  
9 0% 60%  
10 4% 60%  
11 18% 56% Median
12 13% 38%  
13 14% 24% Last Result
14 5% 11%  
15 3% 6%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.5% 0.9%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0% 0.6%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0% 0.6%  
8 0% 0.6%  
9 0% 0.6%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.2%  
8 0% 0.2%  
9 0% 0.2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 117 28% 108–125 107–127 105–130 101–132
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 108 2% 102–117 100–118 98–120 96–124
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 80 0% 72–88 70–90 68–91 65–94
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 72 0% 65–79 63–80 61–81 60–86

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.4% 99.7%  
102 0.2% 99.3%  
103 0.3% 99.1%  
104 1.3% 98.8%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 0.7% 96%  
107 2% 96%  
108 9% 94%  
109 1.3% 85%  
110 2% 83%  
111 5% 81%  
112 3% 76%  
113 6% 72%  
114 3% 67%  
115 5% 63%  
116 8% 59%  
117 6% 51%  
118 8% 44%  
119 5% 36% Median
120 3% 31%  
121 5% 28% Majority
122 6% 23%  
123 2% 17%  
124 2% 14%  
125 5% 12%  
126 2% 7%  
127 1.0% 5%  
128 0.7% 4%  
129 0.4% 4%  
130 2% 3%  
131 0.3% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.4% 99.6%  
97 0.7% 99.2%  
98 2% 98.5%  
99 1.0% 97%  
100 3% 96%  
101 2% 93%  
102 4% 91%  
103 3% 87%  
104 5% 84%  
105 9% 79%  
106 5% 70%  
107 4% 65%  
108 13% 61% Median
109 4% 49%  
110 4% 45%  
111 7% 41%  
112 5% 33%  
113 4% 29%  
114 5% 25%  
115 3% 19%  
116 6% 17%  
117 2% 11%  
118 3% 8%  
119 2% 5%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 1.1% 2% Majority
122 0.4% 1.3%  
123 0.4% 0.9%  
124 0.2% 0.6%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.5% 99.0%  
67 0.7% 98.5%  
68 0.9% 98%  
69 1.1% 97%  
70 3% 96%  
71 2% 93%  
72 10% 91%  
73 1.3% 81%  
74 3% 79%  
75 7% 77%  
76 4% 70%  
77 4% 66%  
78 7% 62% Last Result
79 5% 55%  
80 7% 50%  
81 7% 43%  
82 3% 37% Median
83 6% 33%  
84 10% 28%  
85 2% 18%  
86 3% 15%  
87 2% 13%  
88 2% 10%  
89 2% 8%  
90 1.3% 6%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.7% 1.4%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.9%  
62 1.1% 97%  
63 1.3% 96%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 92% Last Result
66 3% 88%  
67 4% 85%  
68 4% 81%  
69 7% 77%  
70 8% 71%  
71 12% 63% Median
72 10% 51%  
73 6% 41%  
74 4% 35%  
75 7% 31%  
76 4% 24%  
77 3% 20%  
78 6% 18%  
79 5% 11%  
80 1.5% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.5%  
84 0.2% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.5%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations