Opinion Poll by Gallup for BNR, 10–17 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 23.2% 22.5% 20.3–24.9% 19.7–25.6% 19.2–26.2% 18.2–27.4%
БСП за България 13.2% 15.2% 13.4–17.3% 12.8–17.9% 12.4–18.4% 11.6–19.5%
Продължаваме промяната 0.0% 13.3% 11.6–15.4% 11.2–16.0% 10.7–16.5% 10.0–17.5%
Има такъв народ 23.8% 12.2% 10.6–14.2% 10.2–14.8% 9.8–15.3% 9.0–16.3%
Демократична България 12.5% 11.2% 9.6–13.1% 9.1–13.6% 8.8–14.1% 8.1–15.0%
Движение за права и свободи 10.6% 10.8% 9.3–12.7% 8.8–13.2% 8.5–13.7% 7.8–14.6%
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 5.0% 3.7% 2.8–4.9% 2.6–5.3% 2.4–5.6% 2.0–6.2%
Възраждане 3.0% 2.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.7% 1.5–5.3%
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 3.1% 2.4% 1.7–3.4% 1.5–3.7% 1.4–4.0% 1.1–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Граждани за европейско развитие на България 63 61 55–68 53–70 52–72 48–75
БСП за България 36 41 36–47 35–49 34–50 32–53
Продължаваме промяната 0 37 32–42 30–43 29–44 27–48
Има такъв народ 65 34 29–39 27–40 26–42 24–44
Демократична България 34 31 26–35 25–37 24–38 22–41
Движение за права и свободи 29 29 25–35 24–36 23–37 21–40
Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 13 0 0–13 0–14 0–15 0–17
Възраждане 0 0 0 0–12 0–12 0–14
ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение 0 0 0 0 0–10 0–12

Граждани за европейско развитие на България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Граждани за европейско развитие на България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 0.7% 99.2%  
51 0.9% 98%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 95%  
55 3% 91%  
56 7% 88%  
57 6% 81%  
58 5% 76%  
59 8% 70%  
60 8% 62%  
61 7% 53% Median
62 8% 47%  
63 6% 39% Last Result
64 4% 33%  
65 7% 30%  
66 5% 22%  
67 7% 17%  
68 2% 10%  
69 2% 8%  
70 1.4% 6%  
71 1.2% 5%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

БСП за България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the БСП за България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 99.5%  
33 1.2% 99.1%  
34 2% 98%  
35 3% 96%  
36 6% 93% Last Result
37 5% 87%  
38 8% 82%  
39 6% 74%  
40 13% 68%  
41 7% 55% Median
42 9% 49%  
43 4% 40%  
44 10% 36%  
45 6% 26%  
46 6% 19%  
47 5% 14%  
48 4% 9%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.3% 1.2%  
53 0.5% 0.9%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Продължаваме промяната

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Продължаваме промяната page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 0.9% 99.3%  
29 3% 98%  
30 2% 95%  
31 3% 93%  
32 6% 90%  
33 7% 84%  
34 6% 78%  
35 12% 72%  
36 9% 60%  
37 9% 52% Median
38 10% 43%  
39 9% 33%  
40 8% 24%  
41 5% 16%  
42 2% 10%  
43 3% 8%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.5% 2%  
46 0.4% 2%  
47 0.7% 1.2%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Има такъв народ

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Има такъв народ page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.6%  
25 0.5% 99.2%  
26 2% 98.7%  
27 4% 97%  
28 3% 93%  
29 4% 90%  
30 7% 86%  
31 9% 79%  
32 6% 69%  
33 8% 63%  
34 10% 56% Median
35 13% 46%  
36 10% 33%  
37 6% 23%  
38 4% 16%  
39 6% 12%  
40 2% 7%  
41 1.2% 4%  
42 1.3% 3%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.7% 1.1%  
45 0.1% 0.4%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Демократична България

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Демократична България page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.7%  
23 1.3% 99.2%  
24 2% 98%  
25 3% 96%  
26 4% 93%  
27 7% 89%  
28 7% 82%  
29 10% 75%  
30 14% 65%  
31 13% 51% Median
32 9% 38%  
33 9% 29%  
34 6% 21% Last Result
35 5% 15%  
36 3% 10%  
37 3% 6%  
38 1.2% 4%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.5% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.7%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Движение за права и свободи

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Движение за права и свободи page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.7%  
22 0.7% 99.3%  
23 3% 98.5%  
24 3% 95%  
25 6% 92%  
26 8% 87%  
27 5% 79%  
28 10% 74%  
29 16% 64% Last Result, Median
30 9% 48%  
31 11% 39%  
32 5% 28%  
33 7% 24%  
34 6% 16%  
35 4% 11%  
36 3% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 2%  
39 0.5% 1.2%  
40 0.4% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0% 38%  
3 0% 38%  
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0% 38%  
7 0% 38%  
8 0% 38%  
9 0% 38%  
10 0.1% 38%  
11 13% 38%  
12 11% 25%  
13 6% 14% Last Result
14 4% 8%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.7% 1.3%  
17 0.4% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Възраждане

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Възраждане page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 0% 10%  
8 0% 10%  
9 0% 10%  
10 0.2% 10%  
11 4% 9%  
12 3% 5%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.4% 0.8%  
15 0.3% 0.4%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ВМРО–Българско Национално Движение page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0% 3%  
8 0% 3%  
9 0% 3%  
10 0% 3%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.7% 1.0%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 143 110 5% 101–118 99–120 97–123 93–125
БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи 130 105 0.5% 97–113 95–115 93–117 89–121
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме! 78 77 0% 67–85 65–87 63–89 61–92
БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи 65 71 0% 64–78 62–81 61–82 58–86

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.3%  
95 0.3% 98.9%  
96 0.9% 98.6%  
97 0.6% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 0.7% 95%  
100 3% 95%  
101 2% 91%  
102 3% 90%  
103 2% 87%  
104 10% 85% Median
105 3% 75%  
106 3% 72%  
107 5% 69%  
108 7% 63%  
109 5% 56%  
110 6% 52%  
111 4% 46%  
112 4% 42%  
113 8% 38%  
114 5% 30%  
115 7% 26%  
116 3% 19%  
117 6% 16%  
118 1.2% 11%  
119 2% 9%  
120 2% 7%  
121 0.9% 5% Majority
122 1.3% 4%  
123 1.1% 3%  
124 0.6% 1.4%  
125 0.4% 0.8%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Има такъв народ – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.5% 99.4%  
91 0.3% 98.9%  
92 0.9% 98.5%  
93 0.9% 98%  
94 1.3% 97%  
95 3% 95%  
96 2% 93%  
97 2% 91%  
98 4% 88%  
99 3% 85%  
100 5% 81%  
101 4% 77%  
102 5% 73%  
103 4% 68%  
104 14% 64% Median
105 5% 50%  
106 6% 45%  
107 5% 40%  
108 8% 35%  
109 3% 27%  
110 5% 24%  
111 3% 19%  
112 3% 16%  
113 6% 14%  
114 2% 8%  
115 2% 6%  
116 1.0% 4%  
117 0.7% 3%  
118 0.8% 2%  
119 0.9% 2%  
120 0.2% 0.7%  
121 0.1% 0.5% Majority
122 0.2% 0.4%  
123 0% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.2%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0% Last Result

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи – Изправи се БГ! Ние идваме!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.3%  
63 1.1% 98.5%  
64 1.0% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 2% 94%  
67 2% 92%  
68 1.3% 90%  
69 10% 88%  
70 3% 79% Median
71 4% 76%  
72 3% 72%  
73 5% 69%  
74 6% 63%  
75 3% 57%  
76 3% 54%  
77 10% 50%  
78 4% 40% Last Result
79 5% 36%  
80 3% 31%  
81 7% 28%  
82 4% 20%  
83 2% 16%  
84 2% 14%  
85 2% 12%  
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.1% 4%  
89 0.6% 3%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.3%  
92 0.2% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

БСП за България – Движение за права и свободи

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 99.3%  
60 0.7% 98.9%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 3% 97%  
63 2% 94%  
64 3% 92%  
65 5% 90% Last Result
66 4% 84%  
67 4% 80%  
68 3% 76%  
69 12% 72%  
70 9% 61% Median
71 6% 52%  
72 5% 46%  
73 6% 40%  
74 7% 34%  
75 4% 27%  
76 2% 23%  
77 9% 21%  
78 3% 12%  
79 3% 9%  
80 0.8% 6%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.4% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.2%  
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations