Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 15–19 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 24.9% 22.9–27.0% 22.4–27.6% 21.9–28.1% 21.0–29.1%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 22.3% 20.5–24.4% 20.0–25.0% 19.5–25.5% 18.6–26.5%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.6% 18.8–22.6% 18.3–23.2% 17.9–23.7% 17.0–24.6%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 14.4% 12.8–16.1% 12.4–16.6% 12.0–17.1% 11.3–17.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6% 5.3–9.0% 4.8–9.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.9% 4.9–7.1% 4.6–7.5% 4.4–7.8% 4.0–8.4%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 35 31–38 30–38 30–39 28–40
Junts per Catalunya 34 35 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 27–34 26–35 26–35 24–37
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 18 16–22 16–23 15–23 15–24
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 7 5–9 5–9 5–10 4–11
Partit Popular 4 7 6–9 5–9 5–10 3–10
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 3 0–4 0–5 0–6 0–7

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.4%  
30 4% 98.6%  
31 10% 95%  
32 8% 85%  
33 11% 77%  
34 9% 67%  
35 15% 58% Median
36 13% 43% Last Result
37 15% 30%  
38 11% 15%  
39 3% 5%  
40 0.7% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 1.1% 99.0%  
31 6% 98%  
32 11% 92%  
33 11% 81%  
34 16% 69% Last Result
35 14% 53% Median
36 10% 39%  
37 15% 28%  
38 7% 13%  
39 3% 6%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.6% 99.5%  
26 5% 98.9%  
27 5% 94%  
28 18% 89%  
29 18% 71%  
30 11% 53% Median
31 13% 42%  
32 9% 29% Last Result
33 10% 20%  
34 5% 10%  
35 4% 5%  
36 0.9% 1.5%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 12% 96%  
17 25% 85% Last Result
18 21% 60% Median
19 11% 39%  
20 11% 28%  
21 7% 17%  
22 3% 10%  
23 5% 7%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100%  
5 13% 99.2%  
6 17% 86%  
7 21% 68% Median
8 34% 47% Last Result
9 9% 13%  
10 2% 4%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.2% 100%  
4 0.7% 98.8% Last Result
5 6% 98%  
6 13% 92%  
7 49% 79% Median
8 16% 30%  
9 10% 14%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 21% 77%  
3 29% 55% Median
4 18% 26% Last Result
5 3% 8%  
6 3% 5%  
7 1.4% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 96% 69–76 68–78 67–78 65–80
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 67 50% 64–72 63–73 62–74 60–75
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 68 50% 63–71 62–72 61–73 60–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 65 19% 61–69 60–70 59–71 58–73
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 57 61 0.4% 56–64 55–65 54–65 52–67
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–61 49–64
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 37 0% 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–44

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 1.4% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 6% 96% Majority
69 11% 90%  
70 10% 79%  
71 14% 70%  
72 13% 56% Median
73 11% 43%  
74 10% 32% Last Result
75 7% 22%  
76 6% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 5%  
79 1.5% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.7%  
61 1.3% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 5% 96%  
64 8% 90%  
65 9% 83%  
66 12% 74%  
67 12% 62%  
68 17% 50% Median, Majority
69 10% 33%  
70 8% 23% Last Result
71 5% 16%  
72 5% 11%  
73 2% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.6%  
61 2% 98.9%  
62 2% 97%  
63 5% 94%  
64 5% 89%  
65 8% 84% Last Result
66 10% 77%  
67 17% 67% Median
68 12% 50% Majority
69 12% 38%  
70 9% 26%  
71 8% 17%  
72 5% 10%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 3% 97%  
61 6% 94%  
62 9% 88%  
63 12% 79%  
64 11% 67%  
65 14% 57% Median
66 14% 43% Last Result
67 10% 29%  
68 7% 19% Majority
69 5% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.8% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.6%  
55 4% 97%  
56 6% 93%  
57 6% 87% Last Result
58 7% 81%  
59 12% 74%  
60 9% 63% Median
61 15% 53%  
62 12% 38%  
63 12% 25%  
64 7% 14%  
65 4% 7%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.7% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.4% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.6% 99.6%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 3% 97%  
52 6% 93%  
53 9% 87%  
54 15% 78%  
55 12% 63% Median
56 13% 51%  
57 10% 38% Last Result
58 8% 29%  
59 8% 20%  
60 6% 12%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.7% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 1.4% 99.3%  
33 3% 98%  
34 8% 95%  
35 12% 87%  
36 19% 76%  
37 15% 56% Median
38 11% 41%  
39 8% 30%  
40 7% 22% Last Result
41 6% 15%  
42 5% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations