Partit Popular
Voting Intentions
Last result: 4.2% (General Election of 21 December 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 5.1% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.3–7.0% | 3.0–7.4% | 2.5–8.4% |
| 2–14 February 2021 | SyM Consulting | 3.8% | 3.4–4.3% | 3.3–4.4% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% |
| 13–14 February 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
3.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.3% | 2.3–5.6% | 1.9–6.3% |
| 4–14 February 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.5% | 5.0–6.2% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.9% |
| 14 February 2021 | GAD3 RTVE–CCMA |
4.6% | 4.2–5.1% | 4.1–5.2% | 4.0–5.3% | 3.8–5.5% |
| 8–14 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 6–13 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
4.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.7% | 2.8–6.0% | 2.4–6.6% |
| 12 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
4.8% | 3.6–6.4% | 3.3–6.9% | 3.1–7.3% | 2.6–8.2% |
| 1–12 February 2021 | Metroscopia | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% |
| 10–12 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5.5% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.0–7.4% | 3.8–7.8% | 3.3–8.6% |
| 5–12 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
4.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.3% | 3.2–6.6% | 2.8–7.3% |
| 11 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5.0% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% | 3.3–7.6% | 2.8–8.5% |
| 9–11 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
4.4% | 3.4–5.8% | 3.1–6.3% | 2.8–6.6% | 2.4–7.4% |
| 4–11 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
4.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.8–6.1% | 2.4–6.8% |
| 10 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5.0% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% | 3.3–7.6% | 2.8–8.5% |
| 8–10 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
4.5% | 3.4–6.1% | 3.1–6.5% | 2.9–6.9% | 2.5–7.7% |
| 3–10 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
3.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% | 2.6–5.8% | 2.3–6.5% |
| 9 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5.0% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% | 3.3–7.6% | 2.8–8.5% |
| 7–9 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
4.5% | 3.4–6.1% | 3.2–6.5% | 2.9–6.9% | 2.5–7.8% |
| 2–9 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
3.6% | 2.7–4.7% | 2.5–5.1% | 2.3–5.4% | 2.0–6.0% |
| 8 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5.0% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.2% | 3.3–7.6% | 2.8–8.5% |
| 18 January–8 February 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.0% | 4.5–5.6% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 3.9–6.3% |
| 6–8 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
4.5% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.2–6.5% | 2.9–7.0% | 2.5–7.8% |
| 1–8 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 8 February 2021 | Celeste-Tel | 5.6% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.7–8.1% |
| 7 February 2021 | Key Data Público |
5.5% | 4.1–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% | 3.5–8.6% | 2.9–9.7% |
| 5–7 February 2021 | GESOP | 4.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.1–6.1% | 2.7–6.6% |
| 1–7 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 5–7 February 2021 | Demoscopia y Servicios | 5.4% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.0–7.2% | 3.8–7.6% | 3.3–8.3% |
| 6 February 2021 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 3–6 February 2021 | NC Report La Razón |
6.4% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.9–8.3% | 4.6–8.6% | 4.2–9.4% |
| 4–6 February 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
3.8% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% | 2.4–6.1% | 2.0–6.9% |
| 5 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5.8% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.1–8.0% | 3.9–8.5% | 3.3–9.4% |
| 1–5 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
3.9% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% | 2.5–6.0% | 2.1–6.7% |
| 1–4 February 2021 | Opinòmetre Ara |
5.1% | 4.2–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.8–6.8% | 3.4–7.3% |
| 1–4 February 2021 | Hamalgama Métrica OKDiario |
5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| 1–4 February 2021 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
5.6% | 4.8–6.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.1–7.5% |
| 1–3 February 2021 | CIS | 5.8% | 5.2–6.6% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.5–7.4% |
| 29 January–2 February 2021 | DYM Henneo |
3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.4–5.1% |
| 18–31 January 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.5% | 5.0–6.1% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% |
| 31 January 2021 | Sigma Dos Antena 3 |
5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| 25–30 January 2021 | NC Report La Razón |
6.7% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.3–8.5% | 5.1–8.8% | 4.6–9.5% |
| 29 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.0% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% | 4.1–8.8% | 3.5–9.7% |
| 25–28 January 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
6.3% | 5.5–7.2% | 5.3–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.1% |
| 22 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.0% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% | 4.1–8.8% | 3.5–9.7% |
| 18–22 January 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.8% | 5.3–6.4% | 5.1–6.6% | 5.0–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% |
| 18–22 January 2021 | NC Report La Razón |
6.7% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.3–8.5% | 5.1–8.8% | 4.6–9.5% |
| 13–21 January 2021 | Opinòmetre CEO |
7.0% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.9% | 5.3–9.2% | 4.9–9.9% |
| 15 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.0% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% | 4.1–8.8% | 3.5–9.7% |
| 2–15 January 2021 | CIS | 5.8% | 5.3–6.3% | 5.2–6.4% | 5.1–6.6% | 4.9–6.8% |
| 8 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.0% | 4.7–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% | 4.1–8.8% | 3.5–9.7% |
| 4–8 January 2021 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
6.2% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.5–8.5% | 4.1–9.3% |
| 4–7 January 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.7% | 4.0–8.3% |
| 2–5 January 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.7–7.9% | 4.3–8.5% |
| 23–29 December 2020 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.9% | 4.7–8.4% |
| 20 December 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.5% | 5.2–8.4% | 4.8–8.9% | 4.5–9.4% | 3.9–10.3% |
| 25 November–7 December 2020 | GESOP CEO |
6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 30 November–1 December 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.7% | 4.0–8.3% |
| 30 November 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.7% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.5–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.3% |
| 13 October–7 November 2020 | GESOP CEO |
7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–9.0% |
| 19–23 October 2020 | GESOP | 6.2% | 5.5–7.1% | 5.3–7.4% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.8–8.0% |
| 17 October 2020 | Key Data Público |
6.4% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.6–8.9% | 4.3–9.4% | 3.7–10.4% |
| 29 September–9 October 2020 | GESOP CEO |
6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| 28 September–2 October 2020 | NC Report La Razón |
7.6% | 6.4–9.0% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.9–9.7% | 5.3–10.4% |
| 1–4 September 2020 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
6.5% | 5.3–8.0% | 5.0–8.5% | 4.7–8.9% | 4.2–9.6% |
| 31 August 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7.1% | 6.7–7.5% | 6.6–7.6% | 6.6–7.7% | 6.4–7.9% |
| 25 June–21 July 2020 | GESOP CEO |
5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.3% |
| 6–13 July 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.6–7.9% |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Feedback El Nacional |
5.8% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.3% | 4.3–7.6% | 3.9–8.2% |
| 1 April–15 May 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| 29 April–8 May 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
6.3% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.2% |
| 10 February–9 March 2020 | GESOP CEO |
5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.3% |
| 21–26 February 2020 | GAD3 ABC |
7.2% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.6–9.3% | 5.2–9.9% |
| 6 February 2020 | Key Data Público |
4.7% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% | 3.0–7.2% | 2.6–8.1% |
| 3–6 February 2020 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
6.7% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.9–9.1% | 4.4–9.9% |
| 2 February 2020 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6.2% | 5.0–7.8% | 4.7–8.3% | 4.4–8.7% | 3.9–9.5% |
| 27–31 January 2020 | NC Report La Razón |
8.9% | 7.7–10.4% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.1–11.2% | 6.5–12.0% |
| 27–31 January 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
4.8% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.5–6.5% |
| 27–29 January 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
8.4% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.7% | 7.1–9.9% | 6.7–10.4% |
| 14 November–5 December 2019 | GESOP CEO |
4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| 27–30 November 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7.9% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.6–9.5% | 6.2–10.0% |
| 18–22 November 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
8.7% | 7.5–10.2% | 7.2–10.6% | 6.9–11.0% | 6.4–11.7% |
| 16–19 October 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.0% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.1% | 4.8–7.5% |
| 14–15 October 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| 1–5 October 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
5.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 4.0–7.4% | 3.6–8.1% |
| 11 September 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| 3–7 September 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
4.8% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.4–6.6% | 3.0–7.2% |
| 20 August 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| 17 July 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6.2% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.5–8.4% |
| 25–17 July 2019 | GESOP CEO |
3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.3% |
| 1–5 July 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% |
| 4–25 March 2019 | Opinòmetre CEO |
4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| 10 February 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% |
| 24 December 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
4.4% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.2–6.2% | 2.8–6.8% |
| 3–12 December 2018 | Opinòmetre Ara |
2.5% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
| 22 October–12 November 2018 | Opinòmetre CEO |
3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
| 22–25 October 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
3.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.4–5.1% | 2.1–5.7% |
| 24–28 September 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| 16–18 September 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| 22–30 August 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
5.2% | 4.1–6.7% | 3.8–7.1% | 3.6–7.5% | 3.1–8.3% |
| 23 June–14 July 2018 | Opinòmetre CEO |
3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| 2–11 July 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
4.5% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–6.1% |
| 14–21 June 2018 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
4.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.8–6.1% | 2.5–6.7% |
| 3–7 June 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.4% | 3.4–6.9% |
| 7–27 April 2018 | Opinòmetre CEO |
4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–6.0% |
| 17–20 April 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
4.6% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.5–6.0% | 3.3–6.3% | 2.9–6.8% |
| 22–28 March 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
4.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.5–6.6% | 3.1–7.2% |
| 10–30 January 2018 | Apolda CEO |
4.7% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.4–6.3% | 3.0–6.9% |
| 15–19 January 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.4–7.8% | 4.0–8.4% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partit Popular.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 23% | 91% | Last Result |
| 4.5–5.5% | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 26% | 36% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 8% | 10% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 4 seats (General Election of 21 December 2017)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 2–9 | 0–11 |
| 2–14 February 2021 | SyM Consulting | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 13–14 February 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
3 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 4–14 February 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| 14 February 2021 | GAD3 RTVE–CCMA |
5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| 8–14 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
4 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 0–7 |
| 6–13 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
5 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| 12 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 2–9 | 0–11 |
| 1–12 February 2021 | Metroscopia | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–9 |
| 10–12 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
7 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 |
| 5–12 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
5 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 0–10 |
| 11 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 0–12 |
| 9–11 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| 4–11 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
4 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 0–8 | 0–9 |
| 10 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
5 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 0–12 |
| 8–10 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 3–10 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
4 | 2–7 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| 9 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 0–11 |
| 7–9 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
| 2–9 February 2021 | Feedback The National |
3 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| 8 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 0–11 |
| 18 January–8 February 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 3–7 |
| 6–8 February 2021 | GESOP El Periòdic |
5 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 2–9 | 0–10 |
| 1–8 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
3 | 2–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 8 February 2021 | Celeste-Tel | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–11 |
| 7 February 2021 | Key Data Público |
7 | 4–9 | 3–10 | 3–12 | 0–12 |
| 5–7 February 2021 | GESOP | 5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–9 |
| 1–7 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
3 | 2–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| 5–7 February 2021 | Demoscopia y Servicios | 7 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 | 3–11 |
| 6 February 2021 | Sigma Dos El Mundo |
7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 3–6 February 2021 | NC Report La Razón |
7 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 |
| 4–6 February 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
3 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| 5 February 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 5–10 | 3–10 | 3–11 | 3–12 |
| 1–5 February 2021 | Feedback El Nacional |
4 | 2–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| 1–4 February 2021 | Opinòmetre Ara |
6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 1–4 February 2021 | Hamalgama Métrica OKDiario |
7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| 1–4 February 2021 | Celeste-Tel Onda Cero |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| 1–3 February 2021 | CIS | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 29 January–2 February 2021 | DYM Henneo |
3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 18–31 January 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| 31 January 2021 | Sigma Dos Antena 3 |
7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| 25–30 January 2021 | NC Report La Razón |
9 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 29 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 3–12 | 3–14 |
| 25–28 January 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| 22 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 3–12 | 3–13 |
| 18–22 January 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 18–22 January 2021 | NC Report La Razón |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 13–21 January 2021 | Opinòmetre CEO |
9 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| 15 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 5–10 | 4–11 | 3–12 | 3–13 |
| 2–15 January 2021 | CIS | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 8 January 2021 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 5–9 | 3–10 | 3–11 | 3–13 |
| 4–8 January 2021 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 | 4–12 |
| 4–7 January 2021 | GESOP El Periódico |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–11 |
| 2–5 January 2021 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 23–29 December 2020 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| 20 December 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
8 | 6–11 | 5–12 | 5–13 | 3–14 |
| 25 November–7 December 2020 | GESOP CEO |
7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 30 November–1 December 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
7 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 3–12 |
| 30 November 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| 13 October–7 November 2020 | GESOP CEO |
9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| 19–23 October 2020 | GESOP | 7 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 17 October 2020 | Key Data Público |
8 | 6–11 | 5–12 | 5–12 | 3–14 |
| 29 September–9 October 2020 | GESOP CEO |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| 28 September–2 October 2020 | NC Report La Razón |
10 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| 1–4 September 2020 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 | 4–13 |
| 31 August 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| 25 June–21 July 2020 | GESOP CEO |
7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| 6–13 July 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| 29 June–2 July 2020 | Feedback El Nacional |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
| 1 April–15 May 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| 29 April–8 May 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| 10 February–9 March 2020 | GESOP CEO |
7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 21–26 February 2020 | GAD3 ABC |
9 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–13 |
| 6 February 2020 | Key Data Público |
5 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 2–9 | 0–10 |
| 3–6 February 2020 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
9 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 | 5–13 |
| 2 February 2020 | SocioMétrica El Español |
7 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 3–12 |
| 27–31 January 2020 | NC Report La Razón |
12 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| 27–31 January 2020 | GESOP El Periódico |
5 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 |
| 27–29 January 2020 | electoPanel electomania.es |
11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| 14 November–5 December 2019 | GESOP CEO |
5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–7 |
| 27–30 November 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 7–14 |
| 18–22 November 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
12 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 7–15 |
| 16–19 October 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| 14–15 October 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 1–5 October 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| 11 September 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| 3–7 September 2019 | NC Report La Razón |
6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 2–9 |
| 20 August 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| 17 July 2019 | electoPanel electomania.es |
7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| 25–17 July 2019 | GESOP CEO |
3 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 1–5 July 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
| 4–25 March 2019 | Opinòmetre CEO |
3 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
| 10 February 2019 | GESOP El Periódico |
3 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
| 24 December 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–9 |
| 3–12 December 2018 | Opinòmetre Ara |
0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–5 |
| 22 October–12 November 2018 | Opinòmetre CEO |
3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 22–25 October 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
3 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 24–28 September 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| 16–18 September 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| 22–30 August 2018 | SocioMétrica El Español |
6 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| 23 June–14 July 2018 | Opinòmetre CEO |
3 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| 2–11 July 2018 | GESOP El Periódico |
5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| 14–21 June 2018 | GAD3 La Vanguardia |
3 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| 3–7 June 2018 | electoPanel electomania.es |
6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 |
| 7–27 April 2018 | Opinòmetre CEO |
3 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 0–7 |
| 17–20 April 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–9 |
| 22–28 March 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| 10–30 January 2018 | Apolda CEO |
5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–9 |
| 15–19 January 2018 | NC Report La Razón |
7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–10 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partit Popular.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 2% | 98% | |
| 3 | 17% | 96% | |
| 4 | 4% | 79% | Last Result |
| 5 | 19% | 75% | |
| 6 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 7 | 32% | 45% | |
| 8 | 4% | 13% | |
| 9 | 7% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |