Opinion Poll by Apolda for CEO, 10–30 January 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 24.8% | 22.9–26.8% | 22.4–27.3% | 21.9–27.8% | 21.0–28.8% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 22.9% | 21.1–24.9% | 20.6–25.4% | 20.2–25.9% | 19.3–26.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.5% | 17.8–21.4% | 17.3–21.9% | 16.9–22.4% | 16.1–23.3% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.1–14.1% | 10.7–14.6% | 10.4–15.0% | 9.8–15.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3–8.7% | 6.0–9.0% | 5.7–9.4% | 5.3–10.0% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.4–6.3% | 3.0–6.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 35 | 31–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 34 | 31–36 | 30–38 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–9 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 30 | 4% | 97% | |
| 31 | 8% | 94% | |
| 32 | 10% | 86% | |
| 33 | 10% | 75% | |
| 34 | 15% | 65% | |
| 35 | 20% | 50% | Median |
| 36 | 11% | 30% | Last Result |
| 37 | 9% | 19% | |
| 38 | 7% | 10% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 5% | 96% | |
| 31 | 6% | 91% | |
| 32 | 8% | 85% | Last Result |
| 33 | 17% | 77% | |
| 34 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 35 | 25% | 44% | |
| 36 | 10% | 19% | |
| 37 | 4% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 27 | 7% | 95% | |
| 28 | 14% | 88% | |
| 29 | 11% | 74% | |
| 30 | 13% | 64% | |
| 31 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 32 | 18% | 31% | |
| 33 | 6% | 13% | |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 7% | 98.7% | |
| 14 | 3% | 91% | |
| 15 | 24% | 88% | |
| 16 | 35% | 63% | Median |
| 17 | 21% | 28% | Last Result |
| 18 | 4% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 12% | 96% | |
| 7 | 11% | 84% | |
| 8 | 42% | 74% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 21% | 32% | |
| 10 | 5% | 11% | |
| 11 | 6% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 6 | 10% | 97% | |
| 7 | 18% | 86% | |
| 8 | 48% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 20% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 25% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 8% | 74% | Last Result |
| 5 | 30% | 66% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 36% | |
| 7 | 17% | 19% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 96% | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 65–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 95% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 65–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 64 | 10% | 61–67 | 60–69 | 59–69 | 57–71 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 63 | 5% | 60–66 | 59–67 | 58–68 | 56–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 58 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 51–65 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 48–62 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 42 | 0% | 38–45 | 38–46 | 37–47 | 36–49 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 93% | |
| 70 | 12% | 84% | |
| 71 | 14% | 73% | |
| 72 | 14% | 59% | |
| 73 | 14% | 44% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 30% | Last Result |
| 75 | 8% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 11% | |
| 77 | 3% | 6% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 5% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 90% | |
| 70 | 13% | 82% | Last Result |
| 71 | 16% | 69% | |
| 72 | 14% | 54% | |
| 73 | 12% | 40% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 28% | |
| 75 | 7% | 16% | |
| 76 | 4% | 9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 7% | 92% | |
| 62 | 12% | 85% | |
| 63 | 15% | 73% | |
| 64 | 15% | 58% | |
| 65 | 13% | 43% | Median |
| 66 | 12% | 30% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 18% | |
| 68 | 4% | 10% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 4% | 95% | |
| 60 | 7% | 91% | |
| 61 | 12% | 84% | |
| 62 | 12% | 72% | |
| 63 | 14% | 60% | |
| 64 | 16% | 46% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 31% | Last Result |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | |
| 67 | 5% | 10% | |
| 68 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 53 | 3% | 97% | |
| 54 | 5% | 94% | |
| 55 | 8% | 88% | |
| 56 | 11% | 80% | |
| 57 | 13% | 70% | Last Result |
| 58 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 59 | 18% | 42% | |
| 60 | 11% | 24% | |
| 61 | 6% | 13% | |
| 62 | 3% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 4% | 95% | |
| 52 | 7% | 91% | |
| 53 | 10% | 84% | |
| 54 | 15% | 74% | |
| 55 | 12% | 58% | |
| 56 | 16% | 46% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 29% | Last Result |
| 58 | 8% | 18% | |
| 59 | 5% | 9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 38 | 6% | 95% | |
| 39 | 6% | 89% | |
| 40 | 9% | 83% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 74% | |
| 42 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 43 | 20% | 45% | |
| 44 | 12% | 25% | |
| 45 | 6% | 13% | |
| 46 | 3% | 7% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Apolda
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 10–30 January 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 816
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%