Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 22–28 March 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 25.7% | 23.7–27.8% | 23.2–28.3% | 22.7–28.9% | 21.8–29.9% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.0% | 19.2–22.9% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.2–24.0% | 17.4–25.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.4% | 17.7–21.3% | 17.2–21.9% | 16.8–22.4% | 16.0–23.3% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 14.8% | 13.3–16.6% | 12.9–17.1% | 12.5–17.5% | 11.8–18.4% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.5–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.5–6.6% | 3.1–7.2% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.6% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.6–6.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 37 | 33–39 | 32–40 | 31–41 | 30–43 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 32 | 28–35 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 26–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 | 25–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 19 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 4 | 3–7 | 2–8 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 2% | 97% | |
| 33 | 6% | 94% | |
| 34 | 5% | 88% | |
| 35 | 13% | 83% | |
| 36 | 9% | 70% | Last Result |
| 37 | 23% | 60% | Median |
| 38 | 21% | 37% | |
| 39 | 10% | 16% | |
| 40 | 3% | 7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 7% | 96% | |
| 29 | 11% | 89% | |
| 30 | 9% | 78% | |
| 31 | 11% | 69% | |
| 32 | 22% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 17% | 35% | |
| 34 | 8% | 19% | |
| 35 | 6% | 11% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 27 | 4% | 96% | |
| 28 | 6% | 92% | |
| 29 | 12% | 86% | |
| 30 | 13% | 75% | |
| 31 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 40% | |
| 33 | 10% | 23% | |
| 34 | 7% | 13% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 14% | 94% | Last Result |
| 18 | 21% | 79% | |
| 19 | 10% | 58% | Median |
| 20 | 16% | 48% | |
| 21 | 11% | 31% | |
| 22 | 6% | 20% | |
| 23 | 8% | 14% | |
| 24 | 5% | 6% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 32% | 94% | |
| 6 | 20% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 20% | 42% | |
| 8 | 19% | 22% | Last Result |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 6% | 85% | Last Result |
| 5 | 24% | 80% | |
| 6 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 7 | 26% | 30% | |
| 8 | 2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 6% | 97% | |
| 3 | 20% | 91% | |
| 4 | 30% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 8% | 41% | |
| 6 | 17% | 33% | |
| 7 | 11% | 16% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 69 | 69% | 65–73 | 64–74 | 63–75 | 61–77 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 68 | 55% | 64–72 | 63–73 | 62–74 | 60–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 67 | 45% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 4% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 62 | 3% | 58–65 | 57–67 | 56–68 | 54–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 57 | 0% | 53–61 | 52–62 | 52–63 | 50–65 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 38 | 0% | 34–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 31–45 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 4% | 96% | |
| 65 | 4% | 92% | |
| 66 | 9% | 88% | |
| 67 | 10% | 79% | |
| 68 | 14% | 69% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 41% | |
| 71 | 11% | 28% | |
| 72 | 7% | 17% | |
| 73 | 4% | 10% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | Last Result |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 63 | 3% | 97% | |
| 64 | 6% | 94% | |
| 65 | 9% | 87% | Last Result |
| 66 | 11% | 79% | |
| 67 | 13% | 67% | |
| 68 | 12% | 55% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 42% | |
| 70 | 10% | 28% | |
| 71 | 6% | 18% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 4% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 5% | 93% | |
| 64 | 6% | 88% | |
| 65 | 10% | 82% | |
| 66 | 14% | 72% | |
| 67 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 45% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 33% | |
| 70 | 9% | 21% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 13% | |
| 72 | 3% | 6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 96% | |
| 59 | 8% | 91% | |
| 60 | 6% | 84% | |
| 61 | 11% | 78% | |
| 62 | 16% | 67% | |
| 63 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 64 | 14% | 39% | |
| 65 | 9% | 25% | |
| 66 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98% | |
| 57 | 5% | 96% | Last Result |
| 58 | 7% | 92% | |
| 59 | 10% | 85% | |
| 60 | 9% | 75% | |
| 61 | 14% | 66% | |
| 62 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 63 | 15% | 40% | |
| 64 | 9% | 25% | |
| 65 | 6% | 16% | |
| 66 | 4% | 10% | |
| 67 | 3% | 5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 5% | 95% | |
| 54 | 6% | 90% | |
| 55 | 10% | 83% | |
| 56 | 13% | 73% | |
| 57 | 12% | 60% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 12% | 49% | |
| 59 | 12% | 36% | |
| 60 | 10% | 24% | |
| 61 | 6% | 14% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 6% | 95% | |
| 35 | 8% | 90% | |
| 36 | 11% | 82% | |
| 37 | 15% | 71% | |
| 38 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 13% | 39% | |
| 40 | 12% | 26% | Last Result |
| 41 | 6% | 14% | |
| 42 | 5% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 22–28 March 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 768
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%