Opinion Poll by Opinòmetre for CEO, 7–27 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 24.5% | 22.8–26.3% | 22.4–26.8% | 22.0–27.3% | 21.2–28.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.5% | 18.9–22.2% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.1–23.1% | 17.4–23.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.8% | 18.3–21.5% | 17.8–21.9% | 17.5–22.4% | 16.8–23.2% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.2% | 7.8–11.5% | 7.4–12.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–6.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 33 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 29–39 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 30 | 27–33 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 25–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 30 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 26–35 | 25–36 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 8–15 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 11 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 9–16 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 0–7 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 31 | 13% | 93% | |
| 32 | 11% | 80% | |
| 33 | 20% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 50% | |
| 35 | 18% | 38% | |
| 36 | 7% | 21% | Last Result |
| 37 | 9% | 13% | |
| 38 | 4% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 10% | 95% | |
| 28 | 12% | 85% | |
| 29 | 17% | 72% | |
| 30 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 31 | 11% | 42% | |
| 32 | 18% | 31% | Last Result |
| 33 | 10% | 13% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 97% | |
| 28 | 4% | 95% | |
| 29 | 21% | 91% | |
| 30 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 31 | 10% | 39% | |
| 32 | 12% | 29% | |
| 33 | 8% | 17% | |
| 34 | 6% | 9% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 18% | 98% | |
| 13 | 18% | 79% | |
| 14 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 15 | 31% | 42% | |
| 16 | 10% | 11% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 9 | 17% | 97% | |
| 10 | 8% | 80% | |
| 11 | 33% | 72% | Median |
| 12 | 12% | 38% | |
| 13 | 18% | 27% | |
| 14 | 7% | 8% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 6% | 90% | |
| 11 | 36% | 84% | Median |
| 12 | 12% | 48% | |
| 13 | 23% | 37% | |
| 14 | 5% | 14% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 2 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 3 | 46% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 48% | Last Result |
| 5 | 25% | 36% | |
| 6 | 8% | 11% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 97% | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 94% | 68–75 | 67–76 | 67–77 | 65–78 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 63 | 3% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 58–68 | 56–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 61 | 0.3% | 57–64 | 56–65 | 56–65 | 54–67 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 52 | 0% | 48–55 | 48–55 | 47–56 | 46–58 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–46 | 35–47 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 68 | 5% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 92% | |
| 70 | 9% | 85% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 76% | Median |
| 72 | 16% | 64% | |
| 73 | 18% | 48% | |
| 74 | 12% | 31% | |
| 75 | 8% | 18% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 4% | 98% | |
| 68 | 6% | 94% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 88% | |
| 70 | 12% | 80% | |
| 71 | 15% | 68% | Median |
| 72 | 15% | 54% | |
| 73 | 12% | 39% | |
| 74 | 14% | 26% | Last Result |
| 75 | 6% | 12% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 3% | 98% | |
| 59 | 5% | 95% | |
| 60 | 8% | 90% | |
| 61 | 12% | 82% | Median |
| 62 | 18% | 69% | |
| 63 | 16% | 52% | |
| 64 | 12% | 36% | |
| 65 | 9% | 24% | Last Result |
| 66 | 7% | 15% | |
| 67 | 5% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 95% | |
| 58 | 12% | 88% | |
| 59 | 13% | 76% | |
| 60 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 61 | 16% | 51% | |
| 62 | 14% | 35% | |
| 63 | 9% | 21% | |
| 64 | 7% | 12% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 51 | 4% | 96% | |
| 52 | 8% | 92% | |
| 53 | 10% | 84% | |
| 54 | 14% | 73% | |
| 55 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 56 | 17% | 45% | |
| 57 | 9% | 28% | Last Result |
| 58 | 10% | 19% | |
| 59 | 5% | 10% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 9% | 88% | |
| 50 | 14% | 79% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 65% | |
| 52 | 15% | 50% | |
| 53 | 14% | 35% | |
| 54 | 9% | 21% | |
| 55 | 6% | 11% | |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 11% | 94% | |
| 39 | 10% | 83% | |
| 40 | 13% | 73% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 46% | |
| 43 | 14% | 33% | |
| 44 | 11% | 19% | |
| 45 | 5% | 8% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinòmetre
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 7–27 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1020
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.93%