Opinion Poll by Opinòmetre for CEO, 7–27 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.4–26.8% 22.0–27.3% 21.2–28.1%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.5% 18.9–22.2% 18.5–22.7% 18.1–23.1% 17.4–23.9%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.8–21.9% 17.5–22.4% 16.8–23.2%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 9.5% 8.4–10.8% 8.1–11.2% 7.8–11.5% 7.4–12.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.1–5.5% 2.8–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 33 31–37 30–37 30–38 29–39
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 27–33 27–33 26–34 25–35
Junts per Catalunya 34 30 29–33 28–34 26–35 25–36
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 14 12–16 12–16 12–16 11–17
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 8–15
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 11 9–14 9–15 9–15 9–16
Partit Popular 4 3 3–6 2–6 2–7 0–7

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 1.0% 99.6%  
30 5% 98.5%  
31 13% 93%  
32 11% 80%  
33 20% 69% Median
34 11% 50%  
35 18% 38%  
36 7% 21% Last Result
37 9% 13%  
38 4% 5%  
39 0.6% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 4% 99.3%  
27 10% 95%  
28 12% 85%  
29 17% 72%  
30 14% 55% Median
31 11% 42%  
32 18% 31% Last Result
33 10% 13%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.6%  
26 2% 98.9%  
27 2% 97%  
28 4% 95%  
29 21% 91%  
30 31% 70% Median
31 10% 39%  
32 12% 29%  
33 8% 17%  
34 6% 9% Last Result
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 18% 98%  
13 18% 79%  
14 20% 61% Median
15 31% 42%  
16 10% 11%  
17 1.2% 1.3% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9% Last Result
9 17% 97%  
10 8% 80%  
11 33% 72% Median
12 12% 38%  
13 18% 27%  
14 7% 8%  
15 0.6% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 10% 99.7%  
10 6% 90%  
11 36% 84% Median
12 12% 48%  
13 23% 37%  
14 5% 14%  
15 8% 9%  
16 0.7% 0.8%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 0% 98.9%  
2 5% 98.9%  
3 46% 94% Median
4 12% 48% Last Result
5 25% 36%  
6 8% 11%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 72 97% 69–76 68–77 67–77 66–79
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 72 94% 68–75 67–76 67–77 65–78
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 63 3% 59–66 58–67 58–68 56–69
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 61 0.3% 57–64 56–65 56–65 54–67
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 49–61
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 57 52 0% 48–55 48–55 47–56 46–58
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 41 0% 38–44 37–45 37–46 35–47

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 1.0% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.6%  
68 5% 97% Majority
69 7% 92%  
70 9% 85% Last Result
71 12% 76% Median
72 16% 64%  
73 18% 48%  
74 12% 31%  
75 8% 18%  
76 5% 10%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.3% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 1.2% 99.1%  
67 4% 98%  
68 6% 94% Majority
69 8% 88%  
70 12% 80%  
71 15% 68% Median
72 15% 54%  
73 12% 39%  
74 14% 26% Last Result
75 6% 12%  
76 4% 6%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 1.3% 99.2%  
58 3% 98%  
59 5% 95%  
60 8% 90%  
61 12% 82% Median
62 18% 69%  
63 16% 52%  
64 12% 36%  
65 9% 24% Last Result
66 7% 15%  
67 5% 8%  
68 2% 3% Majority
69 1.0% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.6%  
55 1.2% 99.0%  
56 3% 98%  
57 7% 95%  
58 12% 88%  
59 13% 76%  
60 12% 63% Median
61 16% 51%  
62 14% 35%  
63 9% 21%  
64 7% 12%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.2% 2% Last Result
67 0.7% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.3% Majority
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.6%  
50 3% 98.7%  
51 4% 96%  
52 8% 92%  
53 10% 84%  
54 14% 73%  
55 15% 60% Median
56 17% 45%  
57 9% 28% Last Result
58 10% 19%  
59 5% 10%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 1.3% 99.6%  
47 3% 98%  
48 7% 95%  
49 9% 88%  
50 14% 79% Median
51 15% 65%  
52 15% 50%  
53 14% 35%  
54 9% 21%  
55 6% 11%  
56 3% 5%  
57 2% 2% Last Result
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.6% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.2%  
37 4% 98%  
38 11% 94%  
39 10% 83%  
40 13% 73% Last Result
41 14% 60% Median
42 13% 46%  
43 14% 33%  
44 11% 19%  
45 5% 8%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.6% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations