Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 3–7 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 21.3% 19.7–23.0% 19.3–23.5% 18.9–24.0% 18.1–24.8%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.4% 18.8–22.1% 18.4–22.6% 18.0–23.0% 17.3–23.9%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 29 27–31 26–32 26–33 24–34
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 30 28–33 27–33 26–34 26–35
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 29–34 28–35 28–35 26–37
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 21 18–24 18–24 17–25 17–25
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–10 6–11 6–11 5–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 9 8–11 8–12 8–13 7–13
Partit Popular 4 6 3–7 3–7 3–7 3–8

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 4% 98%  
27 19% 94%  
28 24% 74%  
29 17% 50% Median
30 17% 33%  
31 8% 16%  
32 4% 8%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.4%  
36 0% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 3% 99.5%  
27 4% 96%  
28 15% 92%  
29 22% 77%  
30 12% 55% Median
31 12% 43%  
32 18% 31% Last Result
33 9% 14%  
34 2% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.8%  
27 1.3% 99.1%  
28 5% 98%  
29 10% 93%  
30 10% 83%  
31 27% 73% Median
32 14% 46%  
33 15% 32%  
34 11% 17% Last Result
35 3% 6%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 4% 99.6% Last Result
18 10% 96%  
19 6% 86%  
20 19% 80%  
21 12% 61% Median
22 8% 48%  
23 24% 40%  
24 14% 16%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.4%  
27 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 6% 98.5%  
7 12% 92%  
8 43% 80% Last Result, Median
9 27% 37%  
10 4% 11%  
11 6% 7%  
12 0.4% 0.8%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 17% 99.4%  
9 44% 82% Median
10 9% 38%  
11 23% 28%  
12 2% 5%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 15% 99.7%  
4 4% 85% Last Result
5 27% 81%  
6 30% 53% Median
7 22% 24%  
8 1.2% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 93% 68–75 67–76 66–76 65–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 70 82% 66–73 66–74 65–75 63–76
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 64 7% 60–67 59–68 59–69 57–70
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 62 1.0% 58–65 58–66 57–67 55–68
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 60 0.1% 56–63 55–64 54–65 53–66
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 57 56 0% 52–59 51–59 50–60 49–62
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 33–44

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.2%  
67 5% 97%  
68 8% 93% Majority
69 11% 85%  
70 15% 74% Last Result, Median
71 14% 59%  
72 14% 45%  
73 12% 31%  
74 8% 19%  
75 5% 10%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 1.0% 99.5%  
65 3% 98.5%  
66 6% 95%  
67 8% 90%  
68 14% 82% Majority
69 12% 68% Median
70 14% 56%  
71 14% 42%  
72 12% 29%  
73 8% 16%  
74 3% 8% Last Result
75 3% 5%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.8%  
58 1.3% 99.2%  
59 3% 98%  
60 5% 95%  
61 8% 90%  
62 12% 81%  
63 14% 69%  
64 14% 55% Median
65 15% 41% Last Result
66 11% 26%  
67 8% 15%  
68 5% 7% Majority
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.5%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 95%  
59 8% 88%  
60 14% 79%  
61 12% 65% Median
62 15% 53%  
63 13% 38%  
64 11% 25%  
65 8% 14%  
66 3% 6% Last Result
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.0% Majority
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.2%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 94%  
57 10% 89% Last Result
58 8% 79%  
59 14% 70% Median
60 17% 57%  
61 17% 39%  
62 9% 22%  
63 6% 13%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 3%  
66 1.0% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.1%  
51 4% 97%  
52 6% 93%  
53 8% 87%  
54 14% 79%  
55 13% 65%  
56 15% 52% Median
57 13% 37% Last Result
58 12% 24%  
59 8% 12%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 5% 96%  
36 11% 91%  
37 19% 80%  
38 13% 61% Median
39 15% 48%  
40 13% 33% Last Result
41 11% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.1% 1.4%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations