Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 14–21 June 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.3% | 22.2–26.7% | 21.6–27.4% | 21.1–27.9% | 20.1–29.1% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 24.0% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.3–27.0% | 20.7–27.6% | 19.8–28.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.2% | 18.2–22.4% | 17.6–23.0% | 17.1–23.6% | 16.2–24.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 14.7% | 13.0–16.7% | 12.5–17.2% | 12.1–17.7% | 11.3–18.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.2–9.3% | 4.7–10.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.3–6.1% | 3.1–6.5% | 2.7–7.1% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.8–6.1% | 2.5–6.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 36 | 32–39 | 32–40 | 31–41 | 29–43 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 33 | 30–37 | 28–38 | 28–38 | 27–39 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 24–38 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 18 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 15–24 | 14–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–8 | 2–8 | 2–8 | 0–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 3–6 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98% | |
| 32 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 33 | 14% | 90% | |
| 34 | 9% | 76% | |
| 35 | 14% | 67% | |
| 36 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 37 | 10% | 41% | |
| 38 | 10% | 30% | |
| 39 | 12% | 21% | |
| 40 | 5% | 9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 4% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 5% | 95% | |
| 30 | 10% | 90% | |
| 31 | 15% | 80% | |
| 32 | 13% | 65% | |
| 33 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 7% | 38% | |
| 35 | 12% | 31% | |
| 36 | 8% | 19% | Last Result |
| 37 | 6% | 11% | |
| 38 | 4% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 4% | 96% | |
| 28 | 7% | 92% | |
| 29 | 11% | 85% | |
| 30 | 9% | 74% | |
| 31 | 22% | 65% | Median |
| 32 | 14% | 42% | |
| 33 | 11% | 29% | |
| 34 | 9% | 18% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 13% | 96% | |
| 17 | 25% | 84% | Last Result |
| 18 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 19 | 9% | 38% | |
| 20 | 8% | 29% | |
| 21 | 7% | 20% | |
| 22 | 4% | 13% | |
| 23 | 6% | 9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 12% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 14% | 87% | |
| 7 | 20% | 74% | |
| 8 | 32% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 14% | 21% | |
| 10 | 3% | 8% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 6% | 98% | |
| 3 | 14% | 92% | |
| 4 | 25% | 78% | Last Result |
| 5 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 46% | |
| 7 | 16% | 27% | |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 6% | 96% | |
| 3 | 41% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 5% | 49% | Last Result |
| 5 | 22% | 44% | |
| 6 | 13% | 22% | |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 75 | 98% | 70–79 | 69–80 | 68–81 | 66–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 92% | 68–76 | 67–78 | 65–78 | 63–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 67 | 44% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–74 | 59–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 63 | 8% | 59–67 | 57–68 | 57–70 | 55–72 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 62 | 5% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 55–68 | 54–71 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 51–60 | 50–61 | 49–62 | 48–64 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 39–47 | 38–48 | 38–49 | 36–51 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 97% | |
| 70 | 6% | 94% | |
| 71 | 6% | 88% | |
| 72 | 11% | 81% | |
| 73 | 8% | 70% | |
| 74 | 10% | 62% | Last Result |
| 75 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 76 | 10% | 39% | |
| 77 | 10% | 29% | |
| 78 | 8% | 19% | |
| 79 | 4% | 11% | |
| 80 | 3% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 4% | |
| 82 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 98.5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 3% | 95% | |
| 68 | 8% | 92% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 84% | |
| 70 | 10% | 79% | Last Result |
| 71 | 13% | 69% | |
| 72 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 10% | 45% | |
| 74 | 11% | 34% | |
| 75 | 7% | 23% | |
| 76 | 6% | 16% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 96% | |
| 63 | 5% | 91% | |
| 64 | 9% | 86% | |
| 65 | 11% | 77% | |
| 66 | 9% | 66% | Last Result |
| 67 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 44% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 34% | |
| 70 | 10% | 25% | |
| 71 | 7% | 15% | |
| 72 | 3% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 4% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 5% | 95% | |
| 59 | 6% | 90% | |
| 60 | 7% | 84% | |
| 61 | 11% | 77% | |
| 62 | 10% | 66% | Median |
| 63 | 12% | 55% | |
| 64 | 13% | 44% | |
| 65 | 10% | 31% | Last Result |
| 66 | 6% | 21% | |
| 67 | 8% | 16% | |
| 68 | 3% | 8% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 2% | 97% | |
| 57 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 58 | 6% | 91% | |
| 59 | 8% | 85% | |
| 60 | 11% | 77% | |
| 61 | 13% | 66% | |
| 62 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 63 | 9% | 40% | |
| 64 | 9% | 30% | |
| 65 | 8% | 22% | |
| 66 | 6% | 14% | |
| 67 | 3% | 8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 50 | 4% | 97% | |
| 51 | 7% | 93% | |
| 52 | 6% | 86% | |
| 53 | 7% | 80% | |
| 54 | 12% | 73% | Median |
| 55 | 12% | 61% | |
| 56 | 11% | 49% | |
| 57 | 11% | 38% | Last Result |
| 58 | 9% | 27% | |
| 59 | 7% | 18% | |
| 60 | 4% | 11% | |
| 61 | 3% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 94% | |
| 40 | 6% | 90% | Last Result |
| 41 | 12% | 83% | |
| 42 | 10% | 72% | |
| 43 | 13% | 62% | |
| 44 | 16% | 49% | Median |
| 45 | 10% | 33% | |
| 46 | 9% | 24% | |
| 47 | 6% | 15% | |
| 48 | 4% | 8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): La Vanguardia
- Fieldwork period: 14–21 June 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 600
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.23%