Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 2–11 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 23.5% | 22.1–25.0% | 21.7–25.4% | 21.4–25.8% | 20.8–26.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 21.5% | 20.2–23.0% | 19.8–23.4% | 19.5–23.7% | 18.9–24.4% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 16.5% | 15.3–17.8% | 14.9–18.2% | 14.6–18.5% | 14.1–19.1% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 15.5% | 14.3–16.8% | 14.0–17.1% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.2–18.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.6–9.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.2–10.1% | 6.8–10.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.5–7.7% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.0–8.4% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.3–6.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 35 | 33–38 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 30 | 28–32 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–31 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 21 | 18–23 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 17–24 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 4% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 33 | 10% | 96% | |
| 34 | 14% | 85% | |
| 35 | 28% | 72% | Median |
| 36 | 15% | 44% | |
| 37 | 11% | 29% | |
| 38 | 10% | 18% | |
| 39 | 7% | 8% | |
| 40 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 17% | 91% | |
| 29 | 12% | 74% | |
| 30 | 33% | 62% | Median |
| 31 | 10% | 30% | |
| 32 | 13% | 20% | |
| 33 | 3% | 7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 23% | 92% | |
| 25 | 13% | 69% | |
| 26 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 27 | 26% | 41% | |
| 28 | 9% | 16% | |
| 29 | 5% | 7% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 10% | 94% | |
| 19 | 16% | 83% | |
| 20 | 13% | 67% | |
| 21 | 24% | 55% | Median |
| 22 | 9% | 31% | |
| 23 | 16% | 21% | |
| 24 | 5% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 15% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 9 | 25% | 85% | |
| 10 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 11 | 29% | 38% | |
| 12 | 4% | 9% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 55% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 34% | 38% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 25% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 8% | 75% | Last Result |
| 5 | 29% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 38% | |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 96% | 69–74 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 66–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 70 | 82% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 66–74 | 64–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 66 | 25% | 63–69 | 62–70 | 62–71 | 60–72 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 65 | 18% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 61–69 | 59–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 61 | 0.3% | 58–64 | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 51–59 | 49–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 45 | 0% | 43–49 | 42–49 | 42–50 | 40–51 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 6% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 90% | |
| 70 | 17% | 79% | |
| 71 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 72 | 15% | 44% | |
| 73 | 14% | 29% | |
| 74 | 7% | 16% | Last Result |
| 75 | 4% | 9% | |
| 76 | 4% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 5% | 98% | |
| 67 | 11% | 93% | |
| 68 | 14% | 82% | Majority |
| 69 | 16% | 69% | Median |
| 70 | 16% | 53% | Last Result |
| 71 | 15% | 37% | |
| 72 | 9% | 22% | |
| 73 | 8% | 13% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 9% | 95% | |
| 64 | 12% | 85% | |
| 65 | 16% | 74% | |
| 66 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 67 | 17% | 42% | |
| 68 | 9% | 25% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 16% | |
| 70 | 7% | 9% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 8% | 95% | |
| 63 | 9% | 87% | |
| 64 | 15% | 78% | |
| 65 | 16% | 63% | Last Result |
| 66 | 16% | 47% | Median |
| 67 | 14% | 31% | |
| 68 | 11% | 18% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 7% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 7% | 97% | |
| 59 | 12% | 90% | |
| 60 | 17% | 78% | |
| 61 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 62 | 18% | 48% | |
| 63 | 13% | 30% | |
| 64 | 7% | 17% | |
| 65 | 6% | 10% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 94% | |
| 53 | 10% | 90% | |
| 54 | 15% | 80% | |
| 55 | 18% | 65% | |
| 56 | 16% | 48% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 31% | Last Result |
| 58 | 11% | 17% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 4% | 98% | |
| 43 | 13% | 94% | |
| 44 | 19% | 82% | |
| 45 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 46 | 16% | 47% | |
| 47 | 11% | 31% | |
| 48 | 8% | 19% | |
| 49 | 8% | 11% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 2–11 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1445
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%