Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 2–11 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 23.5% 22.1–25.0% 21.7–25.4% 21.4–25.8% 20.8–26.5%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 21.5% 20.2–23.0% 19.8–23.4% 19.5–23.7% 18.9–24.4%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 16.5% 15.3–17.8% 14.9–18.2% 14.6–18.5% 14.1–19.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 15.5% 14.3–16.8% 14.0–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.2–18.1%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 8.5% 7.6–9.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.2–10.1% 6.8–10.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.5% 5.7–7.4% 5.5–7.7% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.4%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.5% 3.9–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 35 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–40
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 30 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–35
Junts per Catalunya 34 26 24–28 23–29 23–29 23–31
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 21 18–23 17–23 17–24 17–24
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 10 8–11 8–12 8–13 7–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 8–9 7–9 7–10 6–11
Partit Popular 4 5 3–6 3–7 3–7 3–7

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 99.7%  
32 4% 99.1% Last Result
33 10% 96%  
34 14% 85%  
35 28% 72% Median
36 15% 44%  
37 11% 29%  
38 10% 18%  
39 7% 8%  
40 1.0% 1.4%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.7% 99.9%  
27 8% 99.2%  
28 17% 91%  
29 12% 74%  
30 33% 62% Median
31 10% 30%  
32 13% 20%  
33 3% 7%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 7% 99.6%  
24 23% 92%  
25 13% 69%  
26 14% 56% Median
27 26% 41%  
28 9% 16%  
29 5% 7%  
30 1.0% 2%  
31 0.5% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 6% 99.7% Last Result
18 10% 94%  
19 16% 83%  
20 13% 67%  
21 24% 55% Median
22 9% 31%  
23 16% 21%  
24 5% 5%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 15% 99.4% Last Result
9 25% 85%  
10 22% 60% Median
11 29% 38%  
12 4% 9%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 6% 99.3%  
8 55% 93% Median
9 34% 38%  
10 3% 5%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 25% 99.7%  
4 8% 75% Last Result
5 29% 67% Median
6 31% 38%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 96% 69–74 68–75 67–76 66–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 82% 67–73 66–74 66–74 64–76
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 66 25% 63–69 62–70 62–71 60–72
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 65 18% 62–68 61–69 61–69 59–71
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 61 0.3% 58–64 58–65 57–66 56–67
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 57 55 0% 52–58 51–59 51–59 49–61
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 45 0% 43–49 42–49 42–50 40–51

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.6%  
67 2% 98.8%  
68 6% 96% Majority
69 11% 90%  
70 17% 79%  
71 18% 63% Median
72 15% 44%  
73 14% 29%  
74 7% 16% Last Result
75 4% 9%  
76 4% 5%  
77 1.0% 1.3%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 1.3% 99.4%  
66 5% 98%  
67 11% 93%  
68 14% 82% Majority
69 16% 69% Median
70 16% 53% Last Result
71 15% 37%  
72 9% 22%  
73 8% 13%  
74 3% 5%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.7%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 2% 99.3%  
62 3% 98%  
63 9% 95%  
64 12% 85%  
65 16% 74%  
66 15% 57% Median
67 17% 42%  
68 9% 25% Majority
69 7% 16%  
70 7% 9%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.3%  
61 3% 98%  
62 8% 95%  
63 9% 87%  
64 15% 78%  
65 16% 63% Last Result
66 16% 47% Median
67 14% 31%  
68 11% 18% Majority
69 5% 7%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 7% 97%  
59 12% 90%  
60 17% 78%  
61 13% 61% Median
62 18% 48%  
63 13% 30%  
64 7% 17%  
65 6% 10%  
66 2% 4% Last Result
67 0.8% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.3% Majority
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 2% 99.4%  
51 4% 98%  
52 4% 94%  
53 10% 90%  
54 15% 80%  
55 18% 65%  
56 16% 48% Median
57 14% 31% Last Result
58 11% 17%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.5% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
41 1.3% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 13% 94%  
44 19% 82%  
45 16% 63% Median
46 16% 47%  
47 11% 31%  
48 8% 19%  
49 8% 11%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.7% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations