Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 22–30 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 25.2% 22.8–27.8% 22.2–28.5% 21.6–29.2% 20.5–30.5%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 22.4% 20.1–24.9% 19.5–25.6% 19.0–26.3% 17.9–27.5%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 18.4% 16.3–20.8% 15.7–21.5% 15.2–22.0% 14.3–23.2%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 15.0% 13.1–17.2% 12.6–17.8% 12.1–18.4% 11.3–19.5%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.4% 6.1–9.1% 5.7–9.6% 5.4–10.0% 4.8–10.9%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.6% 4.5–7.1% 4.2–7.6% 3.9–8.0% 3.4–8.8%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.2% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.1% 3.6–7.5% 3.1–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 37 33–41 32–42 31–43 29–45
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 30 27–34 26–35 26–36 24–38
Junts per Catalunya 34 28 24–32 24–33 23–33 22–36
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 18 16–23 16–24 15–24 14–25
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 6–11 5–11 5–12 4–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 4–9 4–9 3–10 2–11
Partit Popular 4 6 3–8 3–9 3–9 2–10

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 0.6% 99.0%  
31 1.4% 98%  
32 3% 97% Last Result
33 7% 94%  
34 8% 87%  
35 17% 80%  
36 12% 63%  
37 10% 51% Median
38 8% 41%  
39 14% 33%  
40 8% 19%  
41 5% 11%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 0.8% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 0.7% 99.6%  
25 1.1% 99.0%  
26 3% 98%  
27 10% 95%  
28 13% 84%  
29 13% 71%  
30 16% 58% Median
31 13% 42%  
32 8% 29%  
33 7% 21%  
34 6% 15%  
35 4% 8%  
36 2% 4% Last Result
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.6% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.2% 99.7%  
22 0.3% 99.5%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 7% 96%  
25 7% 89%  
26 18% 82%  
27 9% 64%  
28 11% 55% Median
29 11% 44%  
30 9% 33%  
31 12% 23%  
32 6% 12%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.4% 2% Last Result
35 0.5% 1.0%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 0.4% 99.6%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 12% 96%  
17 20% 84% Last Result
18 17% 64% Median
19 11% 47%  
20 12% 36%  
21 6% 24%  
22 5% 18%  
23 8% 14%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.9% 100%  
5 7% 99.1%  
6 12% 92%  
7 14% 80%  
8 33% 66% Last Result, Median
9 17% 33%  
10 6% 17%  
11 7% 10%  
12 1.2% 3%  
13 1.4% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.5% 99.9%  
3 2% 99.4%  
4 10% 97% Last Result
5 4% 88%  
6 16% 83%  
7 19% 68% Median
8 35% 49%  
9 10% 13%  
10 1.3% 3%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0.8% 99.7%  
3 13% 98.9%  
4 3% 86% Last Result
5 21% 83%  
6 22% 63% Median
7 30% 41%  
8 5% 11%  
9 5% 7%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 94% 69–77 67–78 66–80 64–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 72 90% 67–76 66–78 65–79 63–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 65 22% 60–69 59–71 58–71 56–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 64 13% 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 63 10% 59–68 57–69 56–70 55–72
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 57 55 0% 50–60 50–61 49–62 47–64
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 45 0% 41–49 40–50 38–51 37–54

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.7%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 4% 94% Majority
69 6% 90%  
70 10% 84%  
71 9% 74%  
72 10% 65%  
73 12% 55% Median
74 9% 44% Last Result
75 11% 35%  
76 9% 24%  
77 8% 16%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.5% 3%  
81 0.6% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.6%  
64 0.8% 99.1%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 6% 90% Majority
69 9% 84%  
70 9% 75% Last Result
71 10% 66%  
72 12% 56% Median
73 11% 44%  
74 10% 33%  
75 9% 23%  
76 5% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.3%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 4% 93%  
61 7% 89%  
62 6% 83%  
63 9% 76%  
64 10% 67%  
65 13% 57% Median
66 12% 44% Last Result
67 10% 32%  
68 7% 22% Majority
69 6% 14%  
70 3% 9%  
71 3% 6%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.7%  
56 0.9% 99.2%  
57 2% 98% Last Result
58 3% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 10% 90%  
61 8% 79%  
62 8% 72%  
63 12% 64% Median
64 10% 52%  
65 8% 42%  
66 11% 34%  
67 10% 23%  
68 6% 13% Majority
69 2% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 2% 3%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.6% 99.5%  
56 2% 98.9%  
57 3% 97%  
58 4% 94%  
59 5% 91%  
60 9% 86%  
61 10% 77%  
62 11% 67% Median
63 12% 56%  
64 10% 44%  
65 9% 34% Last Result
66 9% 25%  
67 6% 16%  
68 4% 10% Majority
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 1.3% 99.1%  
49 2% 98%  
50 6% 96%  
51 4% 90%  
52 9% 85%  
53 9% 76%  
54 12% 67% Median
55 11% 55%  
56 8% 44%  
57 13% 36% Last Result
58 7% 23%  
59 6% 16%  
60 4% 10%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.9% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.6%  
38 1.4% 98.8%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95% Last Result
41 6% 92%  
42 8% 86%  
43 14% 78%  
44 14% 64%  
45 10% 51% Median
46 9% 40%  
47 9% 31%  
48 7% 22%  
49 6% 14%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.8% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.0%  
54 0.3% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations