Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 16–18 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 27.7% | 25.9–29.6% | 25.4–30.1% | 25.0–30.6% | 24.2–31.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 21.9% | 20.3–23.7% | 19.8–24.1% | 19.4–24.6% | 18.7–25.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.1% | 14.7–17.7% | 14.3–18.1% | 13.9–18.5% | 13.3–19.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.8–17.3% | 12.2–18.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 42 | 39–45 | 38–46 | 37–46 | 36–48 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 21 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 23 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 2 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 3% | 97% | |
| 39 | 12% | 94% | |
| 40 | 14% | 82% | |
| 41 | 17% | 68% | |
| 42 | 19% | 51% | Median |
| 43 | 9% | 32% | |
| 44 | 9% | 23% | |
| 45 | 8% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 8% | 98% | |
| 28 | 17% | 91% | |
| 29 | 13% | 74% | |
| 30 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 31 | 17% | 41% | |
| 32 | 9% | 23% | |
| 33 | 6% | 14% | |
| 34 | 5% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 4% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 18 | 6% | 96% | |
| 19 | 9% | 90% | |
| 20 | 15% | 80% | |
| 21 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 22 | 9% | 49% | |
| 23 | 23% | 41% | |
| 24 | 13% | 17% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 5% | 95% | |
| 21 | 4% | 90% | |
| 22 | 7% | 85% | |
| 23 | 34% | 78% | Median |
| 24 | 28% | 44% | |
| 25 | 7% | 16% | |
| 26 | 6% | 9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 13% | 93% | |
| 7 | 20% | 80% | |
| 8 | 42% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 14% | 19% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 33% | 97% | |
| 9 | 42% | 63% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 21% | |
| 11 | 13% | 14% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 70% | |
| 2 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 3 | 41% | 47% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 74 | 99.2% | 71–77 | 70–78 | 68–79 | 67–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 73 | 97% | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 | 66–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 71 | 87% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 64–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 65 | 16% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 58–71 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 61 | 0.8% | 58–64 | 57–65 | 56–67 | 54–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 54 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–59 | 47–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 49 | 0% | 46–53 | 45–53 | 45–54 | 43–56 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 5% | 95% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 91% | |
| 72 | 11% | 84% | |
| 73 | 17% | 73% | |
| 74 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 75 | 13% | 37% | |
| 76 | 9% | 24% | |
| 77 | 8% | 15% | |
| 78 | 4% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 4% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 1.5% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 93% | |
| 70 | 9% | 88% | |
| 71 | 12% | 79% | |
| 72 | 15% | 66% | |
| 73 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 34% | Last Result |
| 75 | 7% | 19% | |
| 76 | 6% | 12% | |
| 77 | 4% | 6% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 7% | 94% | |
| 68 | 10% | 87% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 78% | |
| 70 | 10% | 66% | |
| 71 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 72 | 16% | 42% | |
| 73 | 12% | 26% | |
| 74 | 7% | 14% | |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 4% | 95% | |
| 62 | 8% | 91% | |
| 63 | 11% | 83% | |
| 64 | 14% | 72% | |
| 65 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 66 | 16% | 40% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 24% | |
| 68 | 8% | 16% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 57 | 4% | 96% | |
| 58 | 8% | 93% | |
| 59 | 9% | 85% | |
| 60 | 13% | 76% | |
| 61 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 62 | 17% | 44% | |
| 63 | 11% | 27% | |
| 64 | 6% | 16% | |
| 65 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 0.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 97% | |
| 50 | 5% | 94% | |
| 51 | 8% | 89% | |
| 52 | 13% | 81% | |
| 53 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 54 | 18% | 50% | |
| 55 | 11% | 32% | |
| 56 | 9% | 21% | |
| 57 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 58 | 3% | 6% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 45 | 4% | 98% | |
| 46 | 6% | 94% | |
| 47 | 12% | 88% | |
| 48 | 13% | 76% | |
| 49 | 17% | 63% | |
| 50 | 16% | 45% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 30% | |
| 52 | 6% | 17% | |
| 53 | 6% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 16–18 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.52%