Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 24–28 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 23.9% | 22.2–25.7% | 21.8–26.2% | 21.4–26.6% | 20.6–27.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 23.7% | 22.0–25.5% | 21.6–26.0% | 21.2–26.4% | 20.4–27.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 16.2% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.2% | 14.0–18.6% | 13.4–19.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 37 | 34–39 | 33–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 34 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 28–39 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 21–31 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 22 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 17–25 | 17–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 4 | 2–6 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 33 | 5% | 97% | |
| 34 | 9% | 93% | |
| 35 | 23% | 84% | |
| 36 | 11% | 61% | |
| 37 | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 38 | 9% | 34% | |
| 39 | 16% | 26% | |
| 40 | 5% | 9% | |
| 41 | 3% | 5% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 6% | 98% | |
| 31 | 12% | 92% | |
| 32 | 7% | 80% | |
| 33 | 12% | 72% | |
| 34 | 18% | 61% | Median |
| 35 | 19% | 43% | |
| 36 | 9% | 24% | Last Result |
| 37 | 11% | 15% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 23 | 11% | 98% | |
| 24 | 18% | 88% | |
| 25 | 17% | 70% | |
| 26 | 24% | 53% | Median |
| 27 | 11% | 29% | |
| 28 | 6% | 18% | |
| 29 | 8% | 11% | |
| 30 | 2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 18 | 6% | 96% | |
| 19 | 11% | 90% | |
| 20 | 15% | 79% | |
| 21 | 13% | 64% | |
| 22 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 23 | 26% | 43% | |
| 24 | 14% | 18% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 16% | 85% | |
| 7 | 32% | 69% | Median |
| 8 | 30% | 37% | Last Result |
| 9 | 5% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 5 | 14% | 95% | |
| 6 | 30% | 81% | |
| 7 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 9% | 95% | |
| 3 | 22% | 86% | |
| 4 | 40% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 7% | 25% | |
| 6 | 12% | 18% | |
| 7 | 5% | 6% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 69 | 74% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 69 | 67% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 62–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 66 | 33% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 60–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 65 | 17% | 62–68 | 60–69 | 60–70 | 58–72 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 62 | 3% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 58–68 | 56–70 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 62 | 1.2% | 58–65 | 57–66 | 56–67 | 55–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–49 | 37–50 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 8% | 92% | |
| 67 | 11% | 84% | |
| 68 | 13% | 74% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 61% | |
| 70 | 14% | 47% | Median |
| 71 | 11% | 34% | |
| 72 | 10% | 22% | |
| 73 | 6% | 12% | |
| 74 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 66 | 9% | 88% | |
| 67 | 11% | 79% | |
| 68 | 14% | 67% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 53% | |
| 70 | 11% | 40% | Median |
| 71 | 11% | 29% | |
| 72 | 9% | 18% | |
| 73 | 6% | 9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 6% | 97% | |
| 63 | 9% | 91% | |
| 64 | 11% | 82% | |
| 65 | 11% | 71% | |
| 66 | 14% | 60% | |
| 67 | 14% | 47% | Median |
| 68 | 11% | 33% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 21% | |
| 70 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 90% | |
| 63 | 9% | 83% | |
| 64 | 13% | 75% | |
| 65 | 15% | 61% | |
| 66 | 17% | 46% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 29% | |
| 68 | 8% | 17% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 9% | |
| 70 | 2% | 4% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 6% | 98% | |
| 59 | 9% | 92% | |
| 60 | 11% | 84% | |
| 61 | 12% | 73% | |
| 62 | 13% | 61% | |
| 63 | 14% | 48% | Median |
| 64 | 13% | 34% | |
| 65 | 10% | 21% | |
| 66 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 58 | 5% | 94% | |
| 59 | 11% | 88% | |
| 60 | 10% | 77% | |
| 61 | 12% | 67% | |
| 62 | 13% | 55% | |
| 63 | 13% | 42% | Median |
| 64 | 14% | 29% | |
| 65 | 6% | 15% | |
| 66 | 5% | 8% | |
| 67 | 3% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 41 | 9% | 91% | |
| 42 | 16% | 82% | |
| 43 | 16% | 66% | |
| 44 | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 45 | 9% | 34% | |
| 46 | 12% | 24% | |
| 47 | 6% | 12% | |
| 48 | 4% | 6% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 24–28 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%