Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 22–25 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 25.3% | 23.3–27.4% | 22.8–28.0% | 22.3–28.6% | 21.4–29.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 22.5% | 20.6–24.5% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.6–25.6% | 18.7–26.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.3% | 15.6–19.2% | 15.2–19.8% | 14.8–20.2% | 14.0–21.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 14.5% | 12.9–16.3% | 12.5–16.8% | 12.1–17.2% | 11.4–18.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.3–8.8% | 6.0–9.2% | 5.8–9.6% | 5.3–10.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.3–8.8% | 6.0–9.2% | 5.8–9.6% | 5.3–10.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.4–5.1% | 2.1–5.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 38 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 32–45 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 17–28 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 23 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–27 | 17–28 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 | 5–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 33 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 34 | 6% | 96% | |
| 35 | 13% | 90% | |
| 36 | 8% | 77% | |
| 37 | 12% | 69% | |
| 38 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 39 | 19% | 45% | |
| 40 | 10% | 26% | |
| 41 | 9% | 16% | |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 6% | 98% | |
| 28 | 12% | 93% | |
| 29 | 10% | 81% | |
| 30 | 18% | 71% | |
| 31 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 40% | |
| 33 | 8% | 26% | |
| 34 | 10% | 18% | |
| 35 | 5% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 37 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 18 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98% | |
| 20 | 5% | 94% | |
| 21 | 6% | 89% | |
| 22 | 8% | 82% | |
| 23 | 26% | 75% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 49% | |
| 25 | 16% | 23% | |
| 26 | 5% | 7% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 18 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 19 | 5% | 91% | |
| 20 | 8% | 86% | |
| 21 | 7% | 79% | |
| 22 | 9% | 72% | |
| 23 | 34% | 63% | Median |
| 24 | 17% | 29% | |
| 25 | 6% | 12% | |
| 26 | 3% | 6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 7% | 96% | |
| 7 | 16% | 88% | |
| 8 | 38% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 14% | 34% | |
| 10 | 12% | 20% | |
| 11 | 6% | 8% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 22% | 98% | |
| 9 | 31% | 76% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 45% | |
| 11 | 22% | 30% | |
| 12 | 3% | 8% | |
| 13 | 4% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 17% | 85% | |
| 3 | 51% | 68% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 17% | Last Result |
| 5 | 8% | 14% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 70 | 78% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 62–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 69 | 71% | 66–73 | 64–74 | 64–75 | 62–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 69 | 63% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 61–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 65 | 22% | 62–69 | 61–70 | 60–71 | 58–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 60 | 0.5% | 56–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 53–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 57 | 0% | 53–61 | 52–62 | 52–62 | 49–64 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 46 | 0% | 42–50 | 42–50 | 41–52 | 39–53 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 94% | |
| 67 | 9% | 87% | |
| 68 | 9% | 78% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 69% | |
| 70 | 11% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 13% | 44% | |
| 72 | 10% | 31% | |
| 73 | 12% | 21% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 3% | 98% | |
| 65 | 5% | 95% | |
| 66 | 9% | 90% | |
| 67 | 10% | 81% | |
| 68 | 11% | 71% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 47% | |
| 71 | 11% | 35% | |
| 72 | 10% | 24% | |
| 73 | 7% | 14% | |
| 74 | 4% | 7% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 4% | 96% | |
| 65 | 7% | 92% | |
| 66 | 11% | 85% | |
| 67 | 12% | 75% | |
| 68 | 12% | 63% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 38% | |
| 71 | 10% | 26% | |
| 72 | 7% | 16% | |
| 73 | 5% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 12% | 91% | |
| 63 | 10% | 79% | |
| 64 | 13% | 69% | |
| 65 | 11% | 56% | Last Result, Median |
| 66 | 14% | 45% | |
| 67 | 9% | 31% | |
| 68 | 9% | 22% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 13% | |
| 70 | 4% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98% | |
| 56 | 6% | 96% | |
| 57 | 6% | 90% | |
| 58 | 12% | 84% | |
| 59 | 11% | 71% | |
| 60 | 13% | 60% | |
| 61 | 10% | 47% | Median |
| 62 | 15% | 37% | |
| 63 | 8% | 22% | |
| 64 | 8% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 7% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 3% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 95% | |
| 54 | 11% | 89% | |
| 55 | 10% | 77% | |
| 56 | 13% | 68% | |
| 57 | 14% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 13% | 40% | |
| 59 | 9% | 27% | |
| 60 | 7% | 18% | |
| 61 | 5% | 11% | |
| 62 | 4% | 6% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 6% | 96% | |
| 43 | 10% | 90% | |
| 44 | 10% | 80% | |
| 45 | 10% | 70% | |
| 46 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 47 | 14% | 46% | |
| 48 | 11% | 32% | |
| 49 | 10% | 21% | |
| 50 | 6% | 11% | |
| 51 | 2% | 5% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 739
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.73%